Monday, 2 October 2023

One “Problem Solved.” Many More To “Solve.” Golden Week.

Baltic Dry Index. 1701 -15              Brent Crude 94.34

Spot Gold 1843                 US 2 Year Yield 5.03   -0.01

October 2, 1187

In 1186/87 the Crusader prince Reginald of Châtillon broke a truce with Saladin, who responded by declaring war. Saladin slaughtered the Crusader army (and executed Reginald) in July 1187 at the Horns of aṭṭīn. Jerusalem, now undefended, surrendered to him in October. 

To no one’s surprise, a last minute compromise deal was worked out by the Washington weasels (unfair to weasels,) politicians averting for up to 45 days a Federal Government closure.

Same old District of Crooks, same old crooked ending. More de-dollarisation incentivisation, unfortunately. Thankfully, no alternative is within sight, although a central bank digital currency [CBDC] issued by the Bank for International Settlements, Basel Switzerland, might work if it ever becomes available.

Still, in the US stock casinos, at least, there ought to be a relief rally of sorts, though it may not last very long.

 

Dow futures jump more than 100 points after lawmakers avert government shutdown: Live updates

UPDATED SUN, OCT 1 2023 6:59 PM EDT

Stock futures jumped at the open of trading after U.S. legislators were able to come to a temporary agreement that staved off a government shutdown.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 122 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.6%.

The Senate passed a continuing resolution with just hours to spare before a midnight deadline Saturday, which was then signed by President Joe Biden into law. The bill keeps the government open for 45 more days, an extended period that lawmakers can use to finalize funding legislation.

“Investors don’t like to be run to the edge of the cliff constantly,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial. With “not having a shutdown, we should see a very positive reaction in markets.”

Futures gains were limited as investors feared lawmakers were headed for another shutdown fight eventually as Saturday’s agreement did nothing about brewing disagreements on overall government spending levels, the border and Ukraine.

“Markets are going to start to discount this being a 2024 event, as opposed to a 2023,” Cox said. “They’re just going to continue to kick the can down the road and push this into an election year.”

The looming threat of a government shutdown weighed on investors last week, which also marked the end of the trading month and quarter. Investors feared a shutdown could further weigh on a U.S. economy already seeing slowing growth under the weight of the highest interest rates in 15 years.

September marked the worst monthly performance of the year for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The broad S&P 500 index finished the month down 4.9% and the quarter 3.7% lower, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.8% in the month and 4.1% in the quarter. The blue-chip Dow ended the month 3.5% lower and the quarter 2.6% in the red.

But the indexes are still up on the year despite the pullback, underscoring the strength of the rally seen in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 is down about 6% from its 2023 high close in July, but still up 11% for the year.

Investors will watch for economic data due Monday on purchasing and construction spending. Later in the week, attention will turn to a string of reports offering insight into the health of the labor market, including Friday’s all important monthly payrolls data.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as China’s factory activity expands for the first time in six months

UPDATED MON, OCT 2 2023 12:29 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific stocks opened mixed after manufacturing data out of China bounced back to expansion territory.

China’s factory activity in September expanded for the first time in since April, according to official data over the weekend. China’s PMI climbed to 50.2 in September from 49.7, beating Reuters’ expectations of 50.0.

China’s markets are closed for the weeklong Golden Week holiday. South Korean and Hong Kong’s markets are also closed for holidays.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 1.50% higher, while the Topix inched up 1.1%.

Sentiment of Japan’s big manufacturers improved to a score of 9 in the third quarter, up from 5 in the previous three months, the closely-watched central bank tankan survey showed.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.23%.

On Friday in the U.S., the three major indexes were mixed. The Dow and S&P 500 finished the session lower by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, capping off a negative week for the two indexes. The Nasdaq Composite finished up 0.1%.

Over the weekend, U.S. legislators were able to reach a temporary agreement that averted a government shutdown.

Asia-Pacific stocks, China PMI, Japan Tankan (cnbc.com)

In other news, China’s booming says Goldie. Well, if they say so, just don’t say that in China or at the World Bank.

Italy plans to reduce its debt by asset sales. Well, if they say so, but Italian asset sales in the past have never lived up to expectations.

 

China’s demand for oil and copper is ‘booming,’ says Goldman Sachs

China’s demand for many major commodities has been growing at “robust rates,” Goldman Sachs said in a recent note.

The investment bank observed that China’s demand for copper has risen 8% year on year, while appetite for iron ore and oil are up by 7% and 6%, respectively, all beating Goldman’s full-year expectations.

“This strength in demand has largely been tied to a combination of strong growth from the green economy, grid and property completions,” the Goldman report observed.

While China’s embattled property sector is still struggling to recover, the investment bank noted that China’s green economy has shown “significant strength” so far this year, resulting in a demand surge for metals related to the green transition, such as copper.

Goldman’s economists attributed China’s green copper rush largely to its onshore solar installations, which in 2023 so far have “amounted to the level of all previous years’ installations.”

China’s operating solar capacity has reached 228 GW, more than the rest of the world combined, a June report by the Global Energy Monitor said. And the world’s second-largest economy is on track to double its wind and solar capacity five years ahead of its 2030 goals.

According to data collated by Goldman Sachs, China’s green copper demand rose 71% in July from a year ago.

“The most significant strength has come on the renewables side where related copper demand is up 130% y/y year-to-date, led by surging solar related demand,” Goldman wrote in a separate report dated Aug. 25.

Recovery in China’s manufacturing sector is also boosting demand for base metals like aluminum.

“The improvement in manufacturing trends so far in Q3 has also coincided with stronger import levels of base metals,” the report stated.

China’s industrial production grew by 4.5% in August compared to a year ago, beating expectations for 3.9% growth. And within that category, the value added of equipment manufacturing grew 5.4% year on year.

Goldman predicted demand growth for these metals is set to continue.

More

China demand for oil and copper is 'booming,' says Goldman Sachs (cnbc.com)

 

World Bank downgrades developing East Asia growth forecast, weighed by a slowing China

The World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for developing East Asia and Pacific, citing a sluggish China and global demand amid still-high interest rates and dampened trade.

The World Bank said it now expects developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific to grow 5% in 2023, according to its October report published Monday in Asia. That’s slightly less than the 5.1% it had forecast in April. For 2024, the Washington-based multilateral bank now expects 4.5% growth for the region, down from its forecast of 4.8% in April.

The World Bank left its 2023 economic growth forecast for China unchanged at 5.1%, but lowered its 2024 estimate to 4.4% from 4.8% previously. The organization cited “longer-term structural factors,” elevated debt levels in the world’s second-largest economy and weakness in its property sector as reasons for its downgrade.

“While domestic factors are likely to be the dominant influence on growth in China, external factors will have a stronger influence on growth in much of the rest of the region,” the World Bank said.

Even though East Asian economies have mostly recovered from the series of shocks since 2020 — including the Covid-19 pandemic — and will continue to grow, the World Bank said the pace of growth will likely slow.

Growing debt levels

The World Bank flagged the significant increase of general government debt, as well as the rapid jump in corporate debt levels, particularly in China, Thailand and Vietnam.

It warned that high government debt levels can limit both public and private investment. Elevated debt could lead to higher interest rates, which would increase the cost of borrowing for private businesses, it said.

According to the World Bank’s calculations, a 10-percentage-point increase in general government debt to GDP is associated with a 1.2 percentage point decline in investment growth. Similarly, a 10-percentage-point increase in private debt to GDP is associated with a 1.1 percentage point decline in investment growth, it said.

More

World Bank downgrades developing East Asia growth forecast (cnbc.com)

Evergrande chairman investigated over offshore asset transfers - WSJ

October 2, 20233:52 AM GMT+1

Oct 2 (Reuters) - China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) Chairman Hui Ka Yan is being investigated on suspicion of transferring assets offshore while the indebted property developer struggles to complete unfinished projects, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

 

Evergrande has been working to get creditors' approval to restructure its offshore debt but the process grew more complicated last week when the company said it could not issue new debt due to an investigation into its main China unit.

Adding to the embattled developer's woes, it said on Friday that its chairman was under police watch and was suspected of committing unspecified crimes.

Reuters reported last week that a group of offshore creditors was planning to join a court petition to liquidate the developer if it did not submit a new debt restructuring plan by the end of October.

 

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment during week-long National Day holidays.

With more than $300 billion in liabilities, Evergrande has become the poster child of a debt crisis in China's property sector, which contributes to roughly a quarter of the economy.

Trading in the shares of Evergrande and two of its units was suspended on Thursday after media reported that Hui had been taken away by police and was being monitored at a designated location.

Evergrande chairman investigated over offshore asset transfers - WSJ | Reuters

Italy plans 21-billion euro asset sell-off to keep debt in check

By Giuseppe Fonte 

ROME, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Italy aims to raise at least 1% of gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly 21 billion euros ($22.2 billion), through asset sales between 2024 and 2026, the Treasury said in its Economic and Financial Document (DEF) published on Saturday.

The plan is part of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's efforts to keep in check the euro zone's second-largest debt pile as a proportion of GDP, while investors keep a close eye on Rome's creaking public finances.

Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio is seen edging down to 139.6% in 2026, from 140.2% this year.

The new targets factor in the proceeds of asset disposals expected in the next three years, the DEF said, showing that without the sell-off plans the debt burden would probably rise.

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in the document that the stake sales would involve companies that are subject to privatisation commitments already agreed with the European Commission.

This is a reference to bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) (BMPS.MI), which was bailed-out in 2017 at a cost of 5.4 billion euros for taxpayers.

The Treasury is expected to hire advisers for the bank's re-privatisation process, bankers said, though Giorgetti recently poured cold water on the prospect of quick action by saying the government had no urgent need for cash.

Italy will also sell shares in companies in which the Treasury's stake "exceeds that necessary to maintain an appropriate coherence and unity of strategic direction", Giorgetti added, without providing further details.

More

Italy plans 21-billion euro asset sell-off to keep debt in check | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.  

Today, more inflation ahead. Someone thinks it’s a good idea to end the US central bank and its theiving forever inflation. Good luck with that. Politicians and banksters actually want inflation, that’s why they abandoned gold in August 1971.

Under new contract, United Airlines pilots could see salaries soar 40% higher

SEPT. 29, 2023 / 7:40 PM

Sept. 29 (UPI) -- United Airlines pilots approved a new contract Friday that provides up to a 40.2% increase in pay over the course of the four-year deal, union representatives announced.

The Air Line Pilots Association said 82% of the pilots who voted on the contract approved of the deal, which amounts to about $10 billion. In total, 97% of all United pilots voted.

"This industry-leading contract brings substantial benefits to our pilots and could not have happened without their unity and steadfast resolve," said Garth Thompson, chairman of the ALPA's United master executive council. "I am proud that our pilot group will be recognized for their contributions to the company's success. United Airlines cannot thrive without the hard work of its labor groups."

Flight-deck crew members will receive between a 34.5% to 40.2% increase in pay as well as signing bonus pay that will be retroactive to January 2020.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby applauded the new contract in a statement on LinkedIn.

"We are the largest and best airline in the world because of our people, and I'm happy to give them a great contract that ensures we can continue the United Next growth that is creating great careers for everyone here at United Airlines -- and a great route network and customer service for our large and growing customer base," he said.

Other major airlines -- Delta Airlines, FedEx, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Spirit Airlines and WestJet -- have also recently reached agreements with pilots represented by the ALPA.

Under new contract, United Airlines pilots could see salaries soar 40% higher - UPI.com

Time to End the Fed and Its Mismanagement of Our Economy

9/29/2023  Updated:  9/29/2023

----Central banking dates to 1694, when the Bank of England was founded for the purpose of creating the hidden tax of inflation to provide cheap money to government—above all, for Britain’s many foreign wars. In exchange, the central bankers were paid well with interest.

Like any government-favored bank, the Bank of England lent money it didn’t have, lending far more than the silver in its vaults. The British government endorsed this fraud because the king and Parliament wanted the money.

But the fraud went further still: The Bank of England was allowed to use its new government bond holdings to back private loans, which meant creating even more money with no silver behind it to lend to private banks. This, too, earned interest, even though the money was created out of nothing.

----Central banking was imported to the New World before the Constitution was even written. The Bank of North America, our first central bank, copied the Bank of England and created hyperinflation under the Articles of Confederation. At that point, the Founding Fathers scrapped both the Articles of Confederation and the bank.

Thinking that the bank needed a replacement, Congress created the First Bank of the United States in 1791 to consolidate the various currencies and debts from the states and to provide short-term loans to the government.

The First Bank was forbidden from buying government bonds to avoid its predecessor’s hyperinflation. But when the government needed more revenue, Congress decided to sell its shares in the bank, and the charter wasn’t renewed. The central bank was dead, and the U.S. economy boomed until the War of 1812.

To finance that war, the government borrowed heavily from regional banks, which created money out of nothing for the government. That meant that much more paper money was in circulation than gold and silver in bank vaults. When people tried to redeem their paper for specie, the banks didn’t have enough, and many failed.

To bail out the banks, Congress created another central bank in 1816, the Second Bank of the United States.

The Second Bank curtailed excessive lending by regional banks, but only after first encouraging it. The result was a debt-fueled boom followed by a bust in 1819 that sparked the nation’s first depression.

Many in Congress were tolerant of the violent economic spasms caused by the central bank because it provided money for them to spend without overtly raising taxes. But the people were not fooled and would not tolerate it. They elected Andrew Jackson to do battle with the beast, and he ensured the bank’s charter wasn’t renewed in 1836.

That ushered in some of America’s greatest decades of economic growth.

The Golden Age came to an end in 1907 when mismanagement by major banks touched off a bank crisis that required a herculean rescue effort by J.P. Morgan and Co. In response, J. Pierpont Morgan wanted the government to sanction a private “bank for bankers” to respond to such crises.

More.

Time to End the Fed and Its Mismanagement of Our Economy | The Epoch Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

The Great British Parliament Scandal.  MPs gross contempt of the voters over excess deaths. Approx.14 minutes.

Excess deaths debate in parliament

Excess deaths debate in parliament - YouTube

COVID Vaccines Causally Linked to Increased Mortality, Resulting in 17 Million Deaths: Scientific Report

Data suggest COVID-19 vaccines haven’t saved lives, but instead, have resulted in 17 million deaths and increased all-cause mortality in 17 countries.

9/28/2023 Updated: 9/30/2023

A new scientific report challenges the idea that COVID-19 vaccines have prevented deaths after researchers assessed all-cause mortality in 17 countries and found COVID-19 vaccines did not have any beneficial effect on reducing mortality. Instead, researchers found that unprecedented peaks in high all-cause mortality in each country—especially among the elderly population when COVID-19 vaccines were deployed—coincided with the rollout of third and fourth booster doses.

The report, published Sept. 17 by Correlation Research in the Public Interest (pdf) (not yet peer-reviewed), quantified the vaccine-dose fatality rate (vDFR) for all ages—which is the ratio of inferred vaccine-induced deaths to vaccine doses delivered in a given population. After analyzing mortality data, the researchers calculated a mean all-ages fatal toxicity by injection of vDFR of one death per 800 injections across all ages and countries. This equates to 17 million COVID-19 vaccine-related deaths worldwide from 13.25 billion injections as of Sept. 2, 2023.

"This would correspond to a mass iatrogenic event that killed (0.213 ± 0.006) % of the world population (1 death per 470 living persons, in less than 3 years), and did not measurably prevent any deaths," the authors said. The overall risk of death induced by COVID-19 vaccines is 1,000 times greater than previously reported in data from clinical trials, adverse event monitoring, and cause-of-death statistics obtained from death certificates.

All-cause mortality is the death rate from all causes of death for a population in a specific time period. This is the most reliable data for detecting and epidemiologically characterizing events driving death and for measuring the population-level impact of any surge or collapse in deaths from any cause.

---- The researchers conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality using data from the World Mortality Dataset for 17 equatorial and Southern Hemisphere countries, including Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Malaysia, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, Suriname, Thailand, and Uruguay. Equatorial countries have no summer and winter seasons, so there are no seasonal variations in their all-cause mortality patterns.

These countries comprise 9.1 percent of the global population and 10.3 percent of worldwide COVID-19 injections—with a vaccination rate of 1.91 injections per person of all ages—and include nearly every COVID-19 vaccine product and manufacturer across four continents.

Key findings from the 180-page report include:

More

COVID Vaccines Causally Linked to Increased Mortality, Resulting in 17 Million Deaths: Scientific Report | The Epoch Times

 

COVID-19 linked to more sepsis cases than previously thought

SEPT. 29, 2023 / 1:15 PM

The life-threatening infection sepsis was more common than once thought among COVID-19 patients early in the pandemic.

Massachusetts researchers linked SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to about 1 in 6 sepsis cases at five Boston hospitals during the pandemic's first 2-1/2 years.

Researchers from Brigham and Women's Hospital said their findings suggest healthcare workers should rethink how they treat sepsis. The use of electronic health data also provides a framework for future sepsis surveillance, they said.

"Most people, including medical professionals, equate sepsis with bacterial infections," said lead author Dr. Claire Shappell, a specialist in pulmonology and critical care medicine. "This is reflected in treatment guidelines and quality measures that require immediate antibiotics for patients with suspected sepsis."

But "viral infections, including the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, can trigger the same dysregulated immune response that leads to organ dysfunction as in bacterial sepsis," Shappell added in a hospital news release.

For the study, her team used health records from five Mass General Brigham hospitals to track the rate of COVID-associated sepsis. Their criteria included testing positive for COVID-19 and clinical signs of organ dysfunction.

"Previous efforts to quantify the burden of SARS-CoV-2-associated sepsis have been limited by inconsistent definitions and under-recognition of viral sepsis," said senior author Dr. Chanu Rhee, an associate epidemiologist at Brigham and Women's.

"Our prior research has shown that [electronic health record-based] surveillance can provide more accurate estimates of sepsis incidence and outcomes compared to administrative datasets, but this method had not previously been applied specifically for sepsis associated with SARS-CoV-2 or other viruses," Rhee said in the release.

Using data for March 2020 through November 2022, the researchers found more than 430,000 hospitalizations among more than 260,000 people.

About 5.4% of hospitalizations were due to COVID-19 infections. Among those patients, 28.2% had COVID-associated sepsis.

The death rate for patients with COVID-19 and sepsis was initially high -- about 33% -- in the pandemic's first three months, the study showed. Over time, that declined and was similar to the death rate for bacterial sepsis, which is about 14.5%.

More

COVID-19 linked to more sepsis cases than previously thought - UPI.com

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

BP meets AI as oil giant seals big UK battery power deal

Supermajor says agreement first of its kind since tech acquisition as transition plans come under scrutiny following Looney exit

26 September 2023 10:20 GMT Updated  26 September 2023 10:20 GMT

BP sealed a power trading deal to handle energy stored by two large-scale battery systems in the UK, in a first-of-a-kind deployment of specialist AI-enabled software technology acquired by the company.

The UK-based supermajor will provide physical power trading and optimisation for 80MW/160MWh of storage under development by Harmony Energy Income Trust that is due to come online in the first half of next year.

The two battery arrays – with enough capacity to power about 200,000 homes for two hours – will store grid electricity during periods of low demand for discharge when needed to meet peaks or help smooth out supply from variable renewables as more take their place on the UK network.

BP said the deal is the first outing with new battery assets for AI-driven technology it has been integrating since 2021 when it bought Open Energi, a specialist real-time software platform to optimise energy management and help connect more effectively with power markets.

Hormoz Ala, senior manager in European power for BP said: “This deal represents a significant opportunity to combine BP’s established experience in power trading with Harmony’s track record in battery development to help safeguard the stability of the GB power grid.”

The Open Energi deal was part of a wider push by BP into the power sector that also includes major forays into generation assets such as onshore wind and solar, billed by the supermajor as a key plank of a broader integrated energy strategy.

The future direction of BP’s energy transition agenda is under intense scrutiny as the oil giant lines up a permanent replacement for former CEO Bernard Looney, who launched its net zero push in 2020 but earlier in September quit amid a company probe into personal relationships with colleagues.

Finance chief Murray Auchincloss has stepped up to be acting CEO following Looney's departure.

BP meets AI as oil giant seals big UK battery power deal | Recharge (rechargenews.com)

The Battle of Largs (2 October 1263) was a battle between the kingdoms of Norway and Scotland, on the Firth of Clyde near Largs, Scotland. The conflict formed part of the Norwegian expedition against Scotland in 1263, in which Haakon Haakonsson, King of Norway attempted to reassert Norwegian sovereignty over the western seaboard of Scotland.[1] 

Victory was achieved by the Scots with a crafty three-tiered strategy on the part of the young Scottish king, Alexander III: plodding diplomacy forced the campaign to bad weather months and a ferocious storm ravaged the Norwegian fleet, stripping it of many vessels and supplies and making the forces on the Scottish coast vulnerable to an attack that forced the Norwegians into a hasty retreat that was to end their 500-year history of invasion, and leaving Scotland to consolidate its resources into building the nation.

Battle of Largs - Wikipedia

God was/is a Scotsman, who knew?

 

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