Baltic Dry Index. 1832 -117 Brent Crude 89.90
Spot Gold 1989 US 2 Year Yield 5.08 +0.06
Inflation is not all bad. After all, it has allowed every American to live in a more expensive neighborhood without moving.
Senator Alan Cranston.
In the stock casinos, October is yet again turning ugly. Will Ford’s tentative deal with the auto workers union be enough to rally US stocks later today?
On the downside, just how inflationary will
Ford’s new employment deal turn out to be if it becomes the new standard in
employment deals?
Ford, UAW reach
tentative deal to end strike including record pay raise
October 26, 20234:35 AM GMT+1
Oct
25 (Reuters) - The United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor
deal on Wednesday with Ford Motor (F.N), the first of Detroit's Big
Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes joined by 45,000
workers since mid-September.
The proposed
accord, which UAW's leadership must still approve, provides a 25% wage hike
over the 4-1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%.
The
Ford deal, which could help create a template for settlements of parallel UAW
strikes against General Motors (GM.N) and Chrysler parent
Stellantis (STLAM.MI),
would amount to total pay hikes of more than 33% when compounding and
cost-of-living mechanisms are factored in, the UAW said.
"We told Ford to pony up and they did,"
Fain said in a video post on Facebook, adding that the strike at Ford "has
delivered".
In addition to the general wage hike, Fain said the
lowest-paid temporary workers would see raises of more than 150% over the
contract term and employees would reach top pay after three years. The union
also won the right to strike over future plant closures, he said.
The UAW also succeeded in eliminating lower-pay
tiers for workers in certain parts operations at Ford - an issue Fain
highlighted from the start of the bargaining process, wearing T-shirts with the
slogan "End Tiers."
More
Ford,
UAW reach tentative deal to end strike including record pay raise | Reuters
South Korea and
Japan lead losses as Asia sees broad sell-off; Australia shares hit one-year
low
UPDATED WED, OCT 25 2023 10:50 PM
EDT
Asian market saw a broad sell-off, with Japan
and South Korean benchmark indexes leading losses in the region, while
Australia shares touched a low not seen in over a year.
South Korea’s Kospi index slipped
2.23%, while the Kosdaq index shed 2.35%.
This comes as shares of South
Korean chip supplier SK Hynix dropped after announcing a 2.18 trillion won ($1.61 billion) net loss for
the third quarter, in contrast to a 1.11 trillion won net profit in the same
period a year ago.
South Korea’s gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the
third quarter from the prior quarter, a slightly higher-than-expected pace
compared to a Reuters poll.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell
2.13% and the Topix index dropped 1.57%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.91%, hitting its lowest point since Oct. 31, 2022.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped
0.79%, while China’s benchmark CSI 300 index dropped 0.62% at the open.
The S&P 500 closed
below a key level on Wednesday after disappointing quarterly results from
Google-parent Alphabet and
a rebound in interest rates.
The benchmark index fell 1.43% to
close at 4,186.77, ending
the day below the 4,200 level that was being widely watched by
chart analysts. It was the first time the S&P 500 closed below this
threshold since May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
105.45 points, while the Nasdaq
Composite lost 2.43%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Nasdaq 100 futures slide Wednesday evening
following sharp selloff: Live updates
UPDATED WED, OCT 25 2023 8:31 PM
EDT
Nasdaq 100 futures slipped on Wednesday evening
following a sharp selloff in the regular session.
Nasdaq
100 futures dropped
0.7%, while S&P 500
futures fell
about 0.4%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were
hovering under the flat line.
A slew of corporate earnings came
out after the close. Facebook-parent Meta beat on top
and bottom lines in the third quarter, but the company’s
Reality Labs division lost $3.7 billion. Meta shares slid 3%. Meanwhile, Align Technology plummeted
25% after the company offered weak fourth-quarter revenue guidance and missed
estimates in the third quarter.
The moves follow a brutal trading
session, which was partly driven by a 9.5% decline in Google-parent Alphabet.
Alphabet’s Class-A shares suffered their worst day since March 2020. Late
Tuesday, the company reported revenue
in its Google cloud unit that came in below analyst estimates.
In regular trading Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell
1.4% and ended the day below the 4,200 level that’s widely watched by chart
analysts and investors. That marked the first time the broader index closed
below this threshold since May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite,
meanwhile, lost 2.4% and recorded its worst day since Feb. 21, while the
30-stock Dow shed
0.3%.
The next market catalyst may come
Thursday morning as traders watch the first estimate for third-quarter gross
domestic product, which is expected to have gained 4.7% on an
annualized basis, per Dow Jones. The question now is how long will this
expected growth last, particularly as economists look for signs of a recession.
Weekly jobless claims data will also be out in the morning.
Major earnings are also on the
horizon, with Amazon scheduled to post results after the close, along with Ford
and Chipotle.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Alphabet’s
stock has its worst day since start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020
Alphabet shares
fell the most on Wednesday since the start of the Covid pandemic after revenue in
the company’s Google Cloud unit trailed analyst estimates.
The stock closed down 9.5% to end
at $125.61. It marked its steepest drop since a 12% slump on March 16, 2020,
the early days of the pandemic shutdowns.
Wednesday’s plunge came even after
Alphabet beat
Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings per
share. Its cloud miss was a stark contrast to Microsoft’s
earnings, which showed
accelerating growth in the company’s Intelligent Cloud
business. Google posted cloud revenue of $8.41 billion, compared to Street
Account estimates of $8.64 billion.
More
Alphabet
stock drops on cloud miss as investors praise Microsoft (cnbc.com)
Meta widens
revenue guidance range because of Middle East unpredictability
In Meta’s earnings
report on Wednesday, the company gave guidance for the fourth
quarter, with a surprisingly wide gap between the low number and the high.
The $3.5 billion range ($36.5
billion to $40 billion) compares to a $2.5 billion range the company typically
offers in its quarterly revenue forecast. Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, told
analysts on the earnings call that the reason for the change is the
unpredictability in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas
war.
“We have observed softer ads in the
beginning of the fourth quarter, correlating with the start of the conflict,
which is captured in our Q4 revenue outlook,” Li said on the call. “It’s hard
for us to attribute demand softness directly to any specific geopolitical
event.”
Li said Meta doesn’t have “material
direct exposure to Israel,” but she noted that historically the company has
“seen broader demand softness follow other regional conflicts in the past, such
as in the Ukraine war,” after Russia invaded its neighbor in early 2022.
At the mid-point of its guidance
range, Meta would
be expecting revenue of $38.25 billion, compared to the average analyst
estimate of $38.85 billion, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. For
the third quarter, Meta beat on the top and bottom lines, boosting its shares
in extended trading on Wednesday.
Meta’s commentary surrounding the
Middle East conflict, which escalated this month after Hamas attacked Israel,
follows cautionary
statements from Snap on
Tuesday.
Snap said it has “observed pauses
in spending from a large number of primarily brand-oriented advertising
campaigns immediately following the onset of the war in the Middle East,” which
is affecting its current quarter’s sales.
More
Meta widens revenue guidance range, cites Middle East unpredictability (cnbc.com)
In Middle East war news, an economic warning
from the IMF.
Israel-Hamas
war already affecting regional economies: IMF head
Riyadh (AFP) – The raging war
between Israel and Hamas is already battering the economies of nearby
countries, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund told a
Saudi investor forum on Wednesday.
Issued
on: 25/10/2023 - 09:11
"You look
at the neighbouring countries -– Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan –- there the channels
of impact are already visible," Kristalina Georgieva said at the Future
Investment Initiative (FII) in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
The
Palestinian militant group Hamas staged a shock attack on Israel on October 7,
killing more than 1,400 people and taking 222 hostages, according to Israeli
authorities.
Israel has
responded with withering air strikes and a near-total land, sea and air
blockade of Gaza, where the Hamas-run health ministry says 5,791 people have
been killed in the war so far.
Georgieva
spoke one day after Wall Street titans told the forum that the war could deal a
heavy blow to the global economy, especially if it draws in other countries.
"What we
see is more jitters in what has already been an anxious world," Georgieva
said.
"You have
tourism-dependent countries -- uncertainty is a killer for tourist
inflows," she said, describing the potential economic cost for countries
in the region before listing specific risks.
"Investors
are going to be shy to go to that place. Cost of insurance -- if you want to
move goods, they go up. Risks of even more refugees in countries that are
already accepting more."
More.
Israel-Hamas war already affecting regional economies:
IMF head (france24.com)
World must 'buckle up' for
higher interest rates, warns IMF boss - live updates
Wed, 25 October 2023 at
10:28 am BST
The war
between Hamas terrorists and Israel has had a “visible” economic impact,
according to the head of the International Monetary Fund, as she warned the era
of low interest rates was over.
“Unquestionably
we are in a more shock-prone world. And that requires countries to adapt to
that world rather than pretend that it does not exist,” Kristalina Georgieva
told the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.
She said that
while inflation was now slowly coming down “it is not going down fast enough”,
adding: “So now ... our call to everybody is: buckle up. Make sure that you
understand interest rates are here to stay for longer.”
----She
said: “[In the] uncertain world we live in, growth is slow, and will remain
slow for years to come. Inflation is still high and that requires interest
rates to remain high, throwing more cold water on growth.
“Who in their
right mind would then further negatively impact our prospects for growth by
fragmenting the world economy? So please! Come to your senses, all of us!
“We have a
very tragic moment by the people affected by the war that erupted. It is
devastating for the families that have suffered losses. terrible for the
economic prospects for the epicentre of the war [and will have a] negative
impact on neighbours through trade channels, tourism channels, cost of
insurance and a more jittery world [with] more anxiety in the world.”
World must 'buckle up' for higher interest rates,
warns IMF boss - live updates (yahoo.com)
Finally,
China’s Central Bank Digital Currency use is growing. De-dollarisation and the
beginning of the end of the weaponised petrodollar?
Chinese digital yuan CBDC used for first
time to settle cross-border oil deal
CBDC
and de-dollarization saw major strides last week with the 1-million-barrel deal
on the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.
OCT 23, 2023
The digital yuan has been used for the first time to settle an oil
transaction, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX) announced.
PetroChina International bought 1 million barrels of crude on Oct. 19.
The transaction was a response to a call by the Shanghai Municipal
Party Committee and Municipal Government to apply the Chinese central bank
digital currency (CBDC), also referred to as the e-CNY, to international trade,
the exchange said. It is “another major step forward” for the
digital yuan, according to the state-controlled China Daily.
The seller and the price in the transaction were not disclosed. For
comparison, the price of the “OPEC basket” of oil from 13
producers was $95.72 per barrel on Oct. 19.
The crude oil deal also marks an overall major step in the use of
the yuan on the international market and in the global movement toward
de-dollarization. In the first three quarters of 2023, the use of the yuan in
cross-border settlements was up 35% year-on-year, reaching $1.39 trillion,
China Daily reported.
The yuan was first used
for a liquified natural gas (LNG) purchase on SHPGX in March when the French
TotalEnergies agreed to sell LNG to the China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC). The second LNG deal in yuan occurred last week between CNOOC and
French Engie. Those transactions did not involve the digital yuan.
Also on Oct. 19, First Abu Dhabi Bank announced that it had signed an agreement on
digital currency with the Bank of China, the state-owned commercial bank, at
the third Belt and Road Forum for International Corporation, which had ended a
day before. China and the United Arab Emirates, of which Abu Dhabi is part, are
participants in the mBridge platform to support cross-border transactions with
CBDC. MBridge intends to launch as a minimum viable product next
year.
Abu Dhabi signed an agreement with India in August to settle
oil deals in rupees.
Chinese digital yuan CBDC used for first time to settle cross-border oil deal (cointelegraph.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German recession 'well under way' as eurozone woes deepen
The eurozone
economy has suffered its worst month for three years amid warnings recession in
Germany is ‘well under way’.
Data provider
S&P Global said its so-called purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of private
sector activity in the single currency bloc fell to 46.5 in October.
That was well
below the 50 cut-off between growth and decline and marked the worst
performance since November 2020. Outside the pandemic, it was the weakest
reading since March 2013.
‘In the eurozone,
things are moving from bad to worse,’ said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist
at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
‘We wouldn’t be
caught off guard to see a mild recession in the eurozone in the second half of
this year with two back-to-back quarters of negative growth.’ Germany – which
has been dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’ having for so long been the driving
force of the economy – clocked up a score of just 45.8.
‘Germany is
kicking off the final quarter on a sour note,’ said de la Rubia. ‘There is much
to suggest that a recession in Germany is well under way.’
S&P said
France also started the fourth quarter of the year ‘with another steep
contraction’ as it record a PMI score of 45.3.
‘The French
economy is still feeling the heat at the start of the fourth quarter,’ the
report from S&P said.
‘Things are going
south in the manufacturing sector, and there is no relief in sight.’
German recession 'well under way' as eurozone woes deepen | This is Money
Beef prices
are at record highs — how much pricier will your steak get?
PUBLISHED TUE, OCT 24 2023 10:03
PM EDT UPDATED TUE, OCT 24 2023 10:54 PM EDT
How would you like
your steak? Maybe rare, medium, or well done — but certainly not more
expensive.
Retail beef prices in
the U.S. are at record highs, pushing up prices of beef-based products from
burgers to steaks and steak tartare.
That’s largely thanks
to a shrinking cattle supply, as well as higher input costs, market watchers
told CNBC. And they don’t expect it to ease any time soon.
Retail beef prices
are currently hovering around record levels of about $8 per pound, according to
data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
“All consumers will
be paying more for all beef products for several more years,” Wells
Fargo’s Chief Agricultural Economist Michael Swanson told CNBC via email.
Cattle herds in the U.S. have been reduced to
their “smallest number in decades” as a result of prolonged drought in key
cattle ranching states like Texas and Kansas, Swanson said.
In its latest livestock report in September, the USDA maintained its forecast that beef production in the second half of this year
is expected to decline by 180 million pounds from August to the end of the
year.
“As cattlemen retain cows to rebuild the herd,
there is a much lower supply of cattle to provide beef,” Swanson said.
Ranchers typically raise calves and sell them to a
feedlot, where the livestock is fattened and sold to meatpacking companies.
There, the cattle are slaughtered and in turn sold to retailers.
However, if ranchers hold on to the cattle longer,
it not only reduces the supply of beef, but also adds on to input costs — which
eventually get passed on to consumers.
“Input costs have skyrocketed, everything from
labor, to transportation has increased packet costs,” said Brian Earnest, lead
economist for animal protein at farm credit association Cobank.
He, too, echoed how producers have been struggling
with prolonged dry weather and poor forage conditions since 2020.
This has contributed to the dwindling cattle
population, said Gro Intelligence’s Senior Commodity Analyst Adam Speck.
“The last two years, there was a slaughter of
reproductive cows … because they couldn’t afford to keep them over the winter
[due to] drought conditions,” Speck told CNBC via telephone.
Supplies of hay, which are water-intensive crops
used to feed cattle, were hit by a spade of severe
droughts in 2022. In December, dry hay
stocks sank to their lowest levels since
1954 at 71.9 million tons.
More
Beef prices are at record highs, and your steak is becoming pricier (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today and the rest of the week, why the British public hold most Members of Parliament in contemp. Only 16 or 17 MPs bothered to attend the House, mostly Conservative MPs, with the rest of the Commons treating the British public suffering from vaccine damage, with antipathy and disrespect.
Parliamentary
speech on excess deaths
Parliamentary speech on excess deaths - YouTube
Great
public support
Great
public support - YouTube
Antiviral Drug May
Shorten COVID-19-Induced Loss of Taste and Smell
Taste
and smell loss are two symptoms of COVID-19, sometimes lasting years
post-infection. New research indicates one drug may reduce duration of such
symptoms.
October
24, 2023
New data
suggest scientists have discovered a medication first designed to treat
COVID-19 may also lessen the time it takes for two common symptoms of the
disease: loss of taste and smell—to disappear.
The oral antiviral drug ensitrelvir (brand
name Xocova) was granted a Fast Track designation by
the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to be investigated as a potential
treatment for COVID-19 in April. Soon after, results from randomized clinical
trials published in Clinical Infectious Diseases showed
ensitrelvir was safe, effective, and successful in suppressing viral
replication in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.
Ensitrelvir is now gaining traction as a
potential solution to address COVID-19’s symptoms of loss of taste and smell—two
sensory problems that can linger for up to years after the acute infection has
subsided. The drug’s multipurpose use is based on the results of a study by
researchers from the drug’s co-developer, pharmaceutical giant Shionogi Inc., a
United States subsidiary of Shionogi & Co. Ltd. based in Osaka, Japan.
More
Antiviral Drug May Shorten COVID-19-Induced Loss of
Taste and Smell | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Turkish nanotech firm
transforms graphene into 'super material'
Firm, which has one of the world's largest
graphene mass production facilities, has developed more efficient form of
material called 'super graphene'
Goksel Yildirim |24.10.2023 - Update :
24.10.2023
A Turkish company
with one of the world's largest graphene mass production facilities has
developed a more efficient model of the material known as "super
graphene" and has begun mass production and export.
Nanografi
Nanotechnology Inc., which offers advanced technology materials, has taken its
research on graphene -- a "miracle material" that has been the
subject of a Nobel Prize -- to a new level.
The company has
improved graphene -- a material 200 times stronger than steel and hundreds of times
more conductive than copper and equally flexible and lightweight -- and has
obtained "super graphene."
----"Graphene is already used in various sectors
worldwide in its current form. There are more producers than before. Chairs
have been established at universities, and much larger funds have been
allocated for R&D studies,” he said.
"The industry
was looking for answers to how these studies could be integrated into the
industry more quickly and how they could be used more effectively. We were
working on solutions that could meet this demand, remove some handicaps in the
product. There was a definition made for a 'holey graphene,' which could be
called a different form of graphene, with new interventions in graphene, mainly
with holes and gaps," he added.
He further
explained that "the aim was to give new properties to graphene with these
holes, and this mostly remained in academic publications. It was desired that
such a product would emerge.”
“As Nanografi, with
our R&D and infrastructure, we have been working on this product for a
while, and we have developed a product that we call 'super graphene,' which is
described as 'holey graphene' in academic publications. Because in terms of
capabilities, we found that it has much more effective and competent
performances than known graphene and shared this with the scientific community.
With the data we obtained, we have achieved a product with ultra-high
conductivity values, a much larger surface area, and much higher-quality
electrochemical properties than known graphene."
3 times higher
conductivity
Deli pointed out
that this new form of graphene has almost three times more conductivity than
the regular graphene, and the conductivity performance reached up to 16,500
microsiemens.
He also said they
have developed a material with much larger surface areas and made the following
evaluations about what "super graphene" will offer.
"In aerospace,
electronic studies and energy storage systems, the most sought-after feature in
a material is conductivity value. High conductivity allows the material and the
system itself to carry a much higher current and transfer more data. On the
other hand, by offering a much larger and active surface area, it provides a
new active area, especially in membrane systems, battery studies and
supercapacitors. With the improvement of electrochemical performances with
super graphene, advantages have emerged, especially in battery and biosensor
studies."
More
Turkish nanotech firm transforms graphene into 'super
material' (aa.com.tr)
“But it [the boom] could not last forever
even if inflation and credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It would then
encounter the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of circulation
credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the whole
monetary system.”
Ludwig
von Mises.
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