Thursday, 26 October 2023

Ford Caves. NASDAQ Crumbles. Alphabet Crashed.

Baltic Dry Index. 1832 -117            Brent Crude  89.90

Spot Gold 1989                  US 2 Year Yield 5.08 +0.06

Inflation is not all bad. After all, it has allowed every American to live in a more expensive neighborhood without moving.

Senator Alan Cranston.

In the stock casinos, October is yet again turning ugly. Will Ford’s tentative deal with the auto workers union be enough to rally US stocks later today?

On the downside, just how inflationary will Ford’s new employment deal turn out to be if it becomes the new standard in employment deals?

 

Ford, UAW reach tentative deal to end strike including record pay raise

Oct 25 (Reuters) - The United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor deal on Wednesday with Ford Motor (F.N), the first of Detroit's Big Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes joined by 45,000 workers since mid-September.

 

The proposed accord, which UAW's leadership must still approve, provides a 25% wage hike over the 4-1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%.

The Ford deal, which could help create a template for settlements of parallel UAW strikes against General Motors (GM.N) and Chrysler parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI), would amount to total pay hikes of more than 33% when compounding and cost-of-living mechanisms are factored in, the UAW said.

"We told Ford to pony up and they did," Fain said in a video post on Facebook, adding that the strike at Ford "has delivered".

In addition to the general wage hike, Fain said the lowest-paid temporary workers would see raises of more than 150% over the contract term and employees would reach top pay after three years. The union also won the right to strike over future plant closures, he said.

The UAW also succeeded in eliminating lower-pay tiers for workers in certain parts operations at Ford - an issue Fain highlighted from the start of the bargaining process, wearing T-shirts with the slogan "End Tiers."

More

Ford, UAW reach tentative deal to end strike including record pay raise | Reuters


South Korea and Japan lead losses as Asia sees broad sell-off; Australia shares hit one-year low

UPDATED WED, OCT 25 2023 10:50 PM EDT

Asian market saw a broad sell-off, with Japan and South Korean benchmark indexes leading losses in the region, while Australia shares touched a low not seen in over a year.

South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 2.23%, while the Kosdaq index shed 2.35%.

This comes as shares of South Korean chip supplier SK Hynix dropped after announcing a 2.18 trillion won ($1.61 billion) net loss for the third quarter, in contrast to a 1.11 trillion won net profit in the same period a year ago.

South Korea’s gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the third quarter from the prior quarter, a slightly higher-than-expected pace compared to a Reuters poll.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.13% and the Topix index dropped 1.57%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.91%, hitting its lowest point since Oct. 31, 2022.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped 0.79%, while China’s benchmark CSI 300 index dropped 0.62% at the open.

The S&P 500 closed below a key level on Wednesday after disappointing quarterly results from Google-parent Alphabet and a rebound in interest rates.

The benchmark index fell 1.43% to close at 4,186.77, ending the day below the 4,200 level that was being widely watched by chart analysts. It was the first time the S&P 500 closed below this threshold since May. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 105.45 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.43%.

Asia stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq 100 futures slide Wednesday evening following sharp selloff: Live updates

UPDATED WED, OCT 25 2023 8:31 PM EDT

Nasdaq 100 futures slipped on Wednesday evening following a sharp selloff in the regular session.

Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.7%, while S&P 500 futures fell about 0.4%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were hovering under the flat line.

A slew of corporate earnings came out after the close. Facebook-parent Meta beat on top and bottom lines in the third quarter, but the company’s Reality Labs division lost $3.7 billion. Meta shares slid 3%. Meanwhile, Align Technology plummeted 25% after the company offered weak fourth-quarter revenue guidance and missed estimates in the third quarter.

The moves follow a brutal trading session, which was partly driven by a 9.5% decline in Google-parent Alphabet. Alphabet’s Class-A shares suffered their worst day since March 2020. Late Tuesday, the company reported revenue in its Google cloud unit that came in below analyst estimates.

In regular trading Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.4% and ended the day below the 4,200 level that’s widely watched by chart analysts and investors. That marked the first time the broader index closed below this threshold since May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, lost 2.4% and recorded its worst day since Feb. 21, while the 30-stock Dow shed 0.3%.

The next market catalyst may come Thursday morning as traders watch the first estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product, which is expected to have gained 4.7% on an annualized basis, per Dow Jones. The question now is how long will this expected growth last, particularly as economists look for signs of a recession. Weekly jobless claims data will also be out in the morning.

Major earnings are also on the horizon, with Amazon scheduled to post results after the close, along with Ford and Chipotle.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Alphabet’s stock has its worst day since start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020

Alphabet shares fell the most on Wednesday since the start of the Covid pandemic after revenue in the company’s Google Cloud unit trailed analyst estimates.

The stock closed down 9.5% to end at $125.61. It marked its steepest drop since a 12% slump on March 16, 2020, the early days of the pandemic shutdowns.

Wednesday’s plunge came even after Alphabet beat Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. Its cloud miss was a stark contrast to Microsoft’s earnings, which showed accelerating growth in the company’s Intelligent Cloud business. Google posted cloud revenue of $8.41 billion, compared to Street Account estimates of $8.64 billion.

More

Alphabet stock drops on cloud miss as investors praise Microsoft (cnbc.com)

Meta widens revenue guidance range because of Middle East unpredictability

In Meta’s earnings report on Wednesday, the company gave guidance for the fourth quarter, with a surprisingly wide gap between the low number and the high.

The $3.5 billion range ($36.5 billion to $40 billion) compares to a $2.5 billion range the company typically offers in its quarterly revenue forecast. Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, told analysts on the earnings call that the reason for the change is the unpredictability in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas war.

“We have observed softer ads in the beginning of the fourth quarter, correlating with the start of the conflict, which is captured in our Q4 revenue outlook,” Li said on the call. “It’s hard for us to attribute demand softness directly to any specific geopolitical event.”

Li said Meta doesn’t have “material direct exposure to Israel,” but she noted that historically the company has “seen broader demand softness follow other regional conflicts in the past, such as in the Ukraine war,” after Russia invaded its neighbor in early 2022.

At the mid-point of its guidance range, Meta would be expecting revenue of $38.25 billion, compared to the average analyst estimate of $38.85 billion, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. For the third quarter, Meta beat on the top and bottom lines, boosting its shares in extended trading on Wednesday.

Meta’s commentary surrounding the Middle East conflict, which escalated this month after Hamas attacked Israel, follows cautionary statements from Snap on Tuesday.

Snap said it has “observed pauses in spending from a large number of primarily brand-oriented advertising campaigns immediately following the onset of the war in the Middle East,” which is affecting its current quarter’s sales.

More

Meta widens revenue guidance range, cites Middle East unpredictability (cnbc.com)

In Middle East war news, an economic warning from the IMF.

 

Israel-Hamas war already affecting regional economies: IMF head

Riyadh (AFP) – The raging war between Israel and Hamas is already battering the economies of nearby countries, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund told a Saudi investor forum on Wednesday.

Issued on: 25/10/2023 - 09:11

 

"You look at the neighbouring countries -– Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan –- there the channels of impact are already visible," Kristalina Georgieva said at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

The Palestinian militant group Hamas staged a shock attack on Israel on October 7, killing more than 1,400 people and taking 222 hostages, according to Israeli authorities.

Israel has responded with withering air strikes and a near-total land, sea and air blockade of Gaza, where the Hamas-run health ministry says 5,791 people have been killed in the war so far.

Georgieva spoke one day after Wall Street titans told the forum that the war could deal a heavy blow to the global economy, especially if it draws in other countries.

"What we see is more jitters in what has already been an anxious world," Georgieva said.

"You have tourism-dependent countries -- uncertainty is a killer for tourist inflows," she said, describing the potential economic cost for countries in the region before listing specific risks.

"Investors are going to be shy to go to that place. Cost of insurance -- if you want to move goods, they go up. Risks of even more refugees in countries that are already accepting more."

More.

Israel-Hamas war already affecting regional economies: IMF head (france24.com)

 

World must 'buckle up' for higher interest rates, warns IMF boss - live updates

Wed, 25 October 2023 at 10:28 am BST

The war between Hamas terrorists and Israel has had a “visible” economic impact, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund, as she warned the era of low interest rates was over.

“Unquestionably we are in a more shock-prone world. And that requires countries to adapt to that world rather than pretend that it does not exist,” Kristalina Georgieva told the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

She said that while inflation was now slowly coming down “it is not going down fast enough”, adding: “So now ... our call to everybody is: buckle up. Make sure that you understand interest rates are here to stay for longer.”

----She said: “[In the] uncertain world we live in, growth is slow, and will remain slow for years to come. Inflation is still high and that requires interest rates to remain high, throwing more cold water on growth.

“Who in their right mind would then further negatively impact our prospects for growth by fragmenting the world economy? So please! Come to your senses, all of us!

“We have a very tragic moment by the people affected by the war that erupted. It is devastating for the families that have suffered losses. terrible for the economic prospects for the epicentre of the war [and will have a] negative impact on neighbours through trade channels, tourism channels, cost of insurance and a more jittery world [with] more anxiety in the world.”

World must 'buckle up' for higher interest rates, warns IMF boss - live updates (yahoo.com)

 Finally, China’s Central Bank Digital Currency use is growing. De-dollarisation and the beginning of the end of the weaponised petrodollar?

Chinese digital yuan CBDC used for first time to settle cross-border oil deal

CBDC and de-dollarization saw major strides last week with the 1-million-barrel deal on the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

OCT 23, 2023

The digital yuan has been used for the first time to settle an oil transaction, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX) announced. PetroChina International bought 1 million barrels of crude on Oct. 19. 

The transaction was a response to a call by the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government to apply the Chinese central bank digital currency (CBDC), also referred to as the e-CNY, to international trade, the exchange said. It is “another major step forward” for the digital yuan, according to the state-controlled China Daily.

The seller and the price in the transaction were not disclosed. For comparison, the price of the “OPEC basket” of oil from 13 producers was $95.72 per barrel on Oct. 19.

The crude oil deal also marks an overall major step in the use of the yuan on the international market and in the global movement toward de-dollarization. In the first three quarters of 2023, the use of the yuan in cross-border settlements was up 35% year-on-year, reaching $1.39 trillion, China Daily reported. 

The yuan was first used for a liquified natural gas (LNG) purchase on SHPGX in March when the French TotalEnergies agreed to sell LNG to the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). The second LNG deal in yuan occurred last week between CNOOC and French Engie. Those transactions did not involve the digital yuan.

Also on Oct. 19, First Abu Dhabi Bank announced that it had signed an agreement on digital currency with the Bank of China, the state-owned commercial bank, at the third Belt and Road Forum for International Corporation, which had ended a day before. China and the United Arab Emirates, of which Abu Dhabi is part, are participants in the mBridge platform to support cross-border transactions with CBDC. MBridge intends to launch as a minimum viable product next year.

Abu Dhabi signed an agreement with India in August to settle oil deals in rupees.

Chinese digital yuan CBDC used for first time to settle cross-border oil deal (cointelegraph.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

German recession 'well under way' as eurozone woes deepen

By HUGO DUNCAN  

The eurozone economy has suffered its worst month for three years amid warnings recession in Germany is ‘well under way’.

Data provider S&P Global said its so-called purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of private sector activity in the single currency bloc fell to 46.5 in October.

That was well below the 50 cut-off between growth and decline and marked the worst performance since November 2020. Outside the pandemic, it was the weakest reading since March 2013.

‘In the eurozone, things are moving from bad to worse,’ said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

‘We wouldn’t be caught off guard to see a mild recession in the eurozone in the second half of this year with two back-to-back quarters of negative growth.’ Germany – which has been dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’ having for so long been the driving force of the economy – clocked up a score of just 45.8.

‘Germany is kicking off the final quarter on a sour note,’ said de la Rubia. ‘There is much to suggest that a recession in Germany is well under way.’

S&P said France also started the fourth quarter of the year ‘with another steep contraction’ as it record a PMI score of 45.3.

‘The French economy is still feeling the heat at the start of the fourth quarter,’ the report from S&P said.

‘Things are going south in the manufacturing sector, and there is no relief in sight.’

German recession 'well under way' as eurozone woes deepen | This is Money

Beef prices are at record highs — how much pricier will your steak get?

PUBLISHED TUE, OCT 24 2023 10:03 PM EDT UPDATED TUE, OCT 24 2023 10:54 PM EDT

How would you like your steak? Maybe rare, medium, or well done — but certainly not more expensive.

Retail beef prices in the U.S. are at record highs, pushing up prices of beef-based products from burgers to steaks and steak tartare.

That’s largely thanks to a shrinking cattle supply, as well as higher input costs, market watchers told CNBC. And they don’t expect it to ease any time soon.

Retail beef prices are currently hovering around record levels of about $8 per pound, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

“All consumers will be paying more for all beef products for several more years,” Wells Fargo’s Chief Agricultural Economist Michael Swanson told CNBC via email.

Cattle herds in the U.S. have been reduced to their “smallest number in decades” as a result of prolonged drought in key cattle ranching states like Texas and Kansas, Swanson said.

In its latest livestock report in September, the USDA maintained its forecast that beef production in the second half of this year is expected to decline by 180 million pounds from August to the end of the year.

“As cattlemen retain cows to rebuild the herd, there is a much lower supply of cattle to provide beef,” Swanson said.

Ranchers typically raise calves and sell them to a feedlot, where the livestock is fattened and sold to meatpacking companies. There, the cattle are slaughtered and in turn sold to retailers.

However, if ranchers hold on to the cattle longer, it not only reduces the supply of beef, but also adds on to input costs — which eventually get passed on to consumers.

“Input costs have skyrocketed, everything from labor, to transportation has increased packet costs,” said Brian Earnest, lead economist for animal protein at farm credit association Cobank.

He, too, echoed how producers have been struggling with prolonged dry weather and poor forage conditions since 2020.

This has contributed to the dwindling cattle population, said Gro Intelligence’s Senior Commodity Analyst Adam Speck.

“The last two years, there was a slaughter of reproductive cows … because they couldn’t afford to keep them over the winter [due to] drought conditions,” Speck told CNBC via telephone.

Supplies of hay, which are water-intensive crops used to feed cattle, were hit by a spade of severe droughts in 2022. In December, dry hay stocks sank to their lowest levels since 1954 at 71.9 million tons.

More

Beef prices are at record highs, and your steak is becoming pricier (cnbc.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today and the rest of the week, why the British public hold most Members of Parliament in contemp. Only 16 or 17 MPs bothered to attend the House, mostly Conservative MPs, with the rest of the Commons treating the British public suffering from vaccine damage, with antipathy and disrespect.

Parliamentary speech on excess deaths

Parliamentary speech on excess deaths - YouTube

Great public support

Great public support - YouTube

 

Antiviral Drug May Shorten COVID-19-Induced Loss of Taste and Smell

Taste and smell loss are two symptoms of COVID-19, sometimes lasting years post-infection. New research indicates one drug may reduce duration of such symptoms.

October 24, 2023

New data suggest scientists have discovered a medication first designed to treat COVID-19 may also lessen the time it takes for two common symptoms of the disease: loss of taste and smell—to disappear.

The oral antiviral drug ensitrelvir (brand name Xocova) was granted a Fast Track designation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to be investigated as a potential treatment for COVID-19 in April. Soon after, results from randomized clinical trials published in Clinical Infectious Diseases showed ensitrelvir was safe, effective, and successful in suppressing viral replication in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Ensitrelvir is now gaining traction as a potential solution to address COVID-19’s symptoms of loss of taste and smell—two sensory problems that can linger for up to years after the acute infection has subsided. The drug’s multipurpose use is based on the results of a study by researchers from the drug’s co-developer, pharmaceutical giant Shionogi Inc., a United States subsidiary of Shionogi & Co. Ltd. based in Osaka, Japan.

More

Antiviral Drug May Shorten COVID-19-Induced Loss of Taste and Smell | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Turkish nanotech firm transforms graphene into 'super material'

Firm, which has one of the world's largest graphene mass production facilities, has developed more efficient form of material called 'super graphene'

Goksel Yildirim  |24.10.2023 - Update : 24.10.2023

A Turkish company with one of the world's largest graphene mass production facilities has developed a more efficient model of the material known as "super graphene" and has begun mass production and export.

Nanografi Nanotechnology Inc., which offers advanced technology materials, has taken its research on graphene -- a "miracle material" that has been the subject of a Nobel Prize -- to a new level.

The company has improved graphene -- a material 200 times stronger than steel and hundreds of times more conductive than copper and equally flexible and lightweight -- and has obtained "super graphene."

----"Graphene is already used in various sectors worldwide in its current form. There are more producers than before. Chairs have been established at universities, and much larger funds have been allocated for R&D studies,” he said.

"The industry was looking for answers to how these studies could be integrated into the industry more quickly and how they could be used more effectively. We were working on solutions that could meet this demand, remove some handicaps in the product. There was a definition made for a 'holey graphene,' which could be called a different form of graphene, with new interventions in graphene, mainly with holes and gaps," he added.

He further explained that "the aim was to give new properties to graphene with these holes, and this mostly remained in academic publications. It was desired that such a product would emerge.”

“As Nanografi, with our R&D and infrastructure, we have been working on this product for a while, and we have developed a product that we call 'super graphene,' which is described as 'holey graphene' in academic publications. Because in terms of capabilities, we found that it has much more effective and competent performances than known graphene and shared this with the scientific community. With the data we obtained, we have achieved a product with ultra-high conductivity values, a much larger surface area, and much higher-quality electrochemical properties than known graphene."

3 times higher conductivity

Deli pointed out that this new form of graphene has almost three times more conductivity than the regular graphene, and the conductivity performance reached up to 16,500 microsiemens.

He also said they have developed a material with much larger surface areas and made the following evaluations about what "super graphene" will offer.

"In aerospace, electronic studies and energy storage systems, the most sought-after feature in a material is conductivity value. High conductivity allows the material and the system itself to carry a much higher current and transfer more data. On the other hand, by offering a much larger and active surface area, it provides a new active area, especially in membrane systems, battery studies and supercapacitors. With the improvement of electrochemical performances with super graphene, advantages have emerged, especially in battery and biosensor studies."

More

Turkish nanotech firm transforms graphene into 'super material' (aa.com.tr)

“But it [the boom] could not last forever even if inflation and credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It would then encounter the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of circulation credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the whole monetary system.”

Ludwig von Mises.

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