Baltic Dry Index. 1991 +62 Brent Crude 87.71
Spot Gold 1861 US 2 Year Yield 5.08
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
With the Hamas terrorist war dominating mainstream news, there’s no need for the LIR to add to coverage. Hamas by its own actions generated its own extinction.
But in cutting off water and food supplies to an enclave of 2.2 million people occupying a space 25 miles long by 7.5 miles wide at its widest, 3.7 miles wide at its narrowest, Israel’s government risks fracturing global solidarity with Israel.
In the US and global stock casinos, “War? What war?” Life chasing the filthy lucre, fuelled by the central banksters, goes on unfazed.
Hong Kong
and Japan lead gains in Asia as investors shake off pressures from Hamas attack
UPDATED MON, OCT 9 2023 10:29 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets climbed across the board, as markets rally
despite pressures from the attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped
over 2.3%, leading gains in the region as the country comes back from a public
holiday, with the Topix also gaining 2.09%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed
1.2%, extending gains from Monday and moving above the 7,000 mark.
South Korea’s Kospi rose
1.32%, while the Kosdaq added 0.68%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
1.8%, while mainland Chinese markets were also in positive territory, with the
CSI 300 gaining 0.11%.
Hong Kong experienced a shortened
trading day of just two hours Monday after the city canceled its morning
session due to a typhoon warning.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes reversed losses
in the earlier part of the trading day to gain ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.59%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.63%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.39%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European markets
set to open higher despite Middle East bloodshed
UPDATED TUE, OCT 10 2023 12:40 AM
EDT
European markets are heading for a higher open
Tuesday despite the
geopolitical crisis and bloodshed in Israel and Gaza.
Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip
with airstrikes Monday, as it continued its response to a surprise attack by
the Palestinian militant group Hamas that began Saturday morning.
Israeli ministers have ordered a
“complete siege” of the already blockaded and impoverished Gaza Strip, cutting
off supplies of food, water and electricity to its roughly two million
residents.
Asia-Pacific
markets also climbed across the board overnight while U.S.
stock futures were near the flat line on Monday night as Wall
Street assessed the impact and risks of a protracted conflict in the Israel-Hamas
war.
European markets live updates: stocks, data, earnings, Israel crisis (cnbc.com)
Back in the real world though, higher
interest rates and a Chinese property market crash are starting to bite.
Country
Garden says it may not be able to repay debt, warns of uncertainty around
liquidity position
Chinese real estate developer Country Garden
Holdings said
it expects it will not be able to make all of its offshore repayments,
including those issued in U.S. dollar notes.
The company failed to make a debt
repayment of 470 million Hong Kong dollars ($60 million), as of Tuesday.
Country Garden warned that this could lead to creditors demanding faster
repayments of debt or pursuing enforcement action. Shares of the company fell
1.19%, compared with the broader Hang Seng index
which rose about 2%.
In early September, the company narrowly avoided
default after it managed to pay $22.5 million in bond coupon payments and its
creditors voted to extend repayments on six onshore bonds by three years.
Country Garden also recorded
contracted sales of 6.17 billion yuan ($846 million) for September — the sixth
straight month of decline and a decrease of 80.7% from a year ago.
Looking ahead, the company expects
uncertainty in its liquidity position and asset sales in the short and medium
term amid a lack of material, industry-wide improvement in property sales.
Chinese property giants such as Evergrande and
Country Garden have been plagued by debt problems, hurting consumer confidence
in the sector.
Country
Garden says it may not be able to repay debt (cnbc.com)
Consumers
starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill
Simon warns
The draw of bargains may be fading.
As three of the
nation’s biggest retailers kick off a key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO
Bill Simon warns consumers are starting to buckle for the first time in a
decade.
He’s blaming a list of headwinds weighing on
consumers including inflation, higher interest rates, federal budget wrangling,
polarized politics and student loan repayments — and now new global tensions connected
to violence in Israel.
“That sort of
pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” the former Walmart U.S. CEO
told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday.
“For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to
pause.”
The timing comes as Amazon begins
its two-day Prime
Big Deal Days sale on Tuesday. Walmart and Target are
trying to compete with their own sales events to get an early jump on the
holiday- shopping season.
Simon observes the
retailers have a glaring thing in common: The bargains are not as deep.
‘You’re not real proud of your price point’
“They usually say
50-inch TV [is] $199 or something like that. And now, they say 50-inch TV [is]
40% off,” said Simon. “You use percentages when you’re not real proud of your
price point. I think you’ve got inflation pushing the relative price points
up.”
Shares of Amazon, Walmart and Target are
under pressure over the past two months. Target is performing the worst of the
three — off 19%.
Simon, who sits on
the Darden
Restaurants and HanesBrands boards,
believes Walmart does have a big advantage over its competitors right now.
“It’s solely
because of the food business,” Simon said. “They’re going to have both the
eyeballs and the food traffic to probably have a better Christmas than maybe
their competitors.”
Consumers
buckling for first time in decade: Former Walmart U.S. CEO (cnbc.com)
US automakers
increase strike layoffs by more than 800
By David Shepardson October 9, 202311:13 PM GMT+1
Oct 9 (Reuters) -
Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI) said
on Monday it is laying off another 570 workers and General Motors (GM.N) announced
cuts of nearly 200 employee due to the United Auto Workers strike.
Ford said Monday another 70 workers
had been laid off in Michigan, bringing the total at the automaker to 1,865
since the strike began. There are a total of 640 workers at Stellantis that
have been laid off.
Stellantis, which has had a total of
640 layoffs, said the latest include 520 at its Trenton, Michigan engine plant
as well as 50 at an Indiana casting plant. Stellantis said the layoffs were due
to storage constraints.
GM increased its layoffs by 200 to
2,300, affecting six plants including its Lansing, Michigan, stamping plant and
a Toledo, Ohio, plant.
GM said workers are not expected to
return until the strike is resolved. The strike began Sept. 15.
US automakers increase strike layoffs by more than 800 | Reuters
Next, get ready for yet another commodity
scandal. China’s “Mr. Copper” goes “missing.”
Chinese Copper Tycoon Goes Missing, Believed to Be Detained by
Police
Executives
at trader Maike lost contact with founder He Jinbi
Maike
suffered liquidity crisis last year amid Covid lockdowns
·
October 9, 2023 at 5:34 PM GMT+1
·
Updated on October 10, 2023
at 4:09 AM GMT+1
Executives at one of China’s largest copper trading houses
have lost contact with the company’s founder and believe that he has been
detained by police for questioning, according to people familiar with the
matter.
He Jinbi founded
and built Maike Metals International Co. into China’s
biggest importer of refined copper before a liquidity crisis last year brought
the company to its knees. Colleagues haven’t heard from him for at least a day,
and have been informed that he was taken away by police for interviews in his
home province of Shaanxi, the people said, asking not to be identified as the
matter is sensitive.
More, subscription required.
Maike Metals Founder He Jinbi Goes Missing, Believed to Be Detained by Police - Bloomberg
Finally, as usual, more bad news from
cryptoland.
City
watchdog issued nearly 150 alerts on crypto ads in 24 hours after new
regulations
MONDAY 09 OCTOBER 2023 11:45 AM
The City watchdog issued nearly 150 alerts on the
first day of its new crypto marketing regime as unauthorised crypto firms felt
the heat from the new regulations.
Under the rules which came into force yesterday, firms promoting crypto in the UK must be authorised or registered by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), or have their marketing approved by an authorised firm.
Promotions must also be clear and
labelled with prominent risk warnings.
Within 24 hours, 146 alerts were issued to firms
who were advertising crypto investments without registration or authorisation
from the FCA.
Among those hit with warnings was the ironically named
Legit Crypto Mining and Wavy Crypto. Superb Coin and earnbitprofit.com also had
alerts placed on them.
“We expect businesses including social media
platforms, app stores, search engines, domain name registrars and payments
firms to consider the alerts we have issued and play their part in protecting
UK consumers from illegal promotions,” the FCA said.
The FCA reiterated that crypto investment remain
“high-risk” and warned that investors “should be prepared to lose all their
money.”
“The FCA has wasted no time in ramping up pressure
on non-compliant cryptoasset businesses servicing UK customers,” said Mike
Ringer, a financial services partner with law firm CMS.
Alongside the new authorisation requirements, the
new rules – which were announced in June – ban refer-a-friend bonuses and will
introduce a “cooling-off” period, where first time investors will have to wait
a full day before they can complete their transaction.
The FCA has offered some breathing space for some
crypto firms on a few of the more cumbersome rules, including the cooling-off
period. They will have until the 8th January to implement those changes.
City watchdog issues nearly 150 warnings on crypto within 24 hours (cityam.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s
Bonds
Investors
long shrugged off U.S. deficits, but a torrent of Treasurys is testing the bond
market
Updated Oct. 8, 2023 12:02 am ET
The autumn bond rout is challenging Wall Street’s
longstanding belief that the U.S. government can’t sell too many Treasurys.
Ever
since the Federal Reserve broke the inflation scare of the 1980s, Wall Street
and Washington have shrugged off multitrillion-dollar deficits, counting on
America’s global standing to provide perpetual demand for its debt that could
finance the spending. Now, the steep declines in prices of Treasurys—meant to
be the world’s safest and easiest-to-trade investment—are forcing markets to
confront the possibility that the rates required to place all this debt will be
higher than anyone expected.
The
yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which rises when bond prices
fall, briefly surged near 4.9% on Friday after the monthly jobs report showed
U.S. employers hired
nearly double the workers that economists were anticipating. The
strength of the labor market is one reason bond yields have soared this year,
reflecting an improved outlook for economic growth and inflation.
Another came this summer, after the Treasury
Department caught Wall Street off guard by announcing it would
borrow roughly $1 trillion in the year’s third quarter, more than a
quarter trillion dollars above previous expectations. Already more than $1.76
trillion of Treasurys has been issued on a net basis through September, higher
than in any full year in the past decade, excluding 2020’s pandemic surge.
Official estimates show that is unlikely to decrease.
Few expect a U.S. default or a Treasury auction to
fail—a practically unheard-of occurrence that traders warn could lead to a
truly chaotic period in markets, likely with prices falling across the board
for some period. Much of the benchmark 10-year yield’s climb from around 1.5%
at the beginning of 2022 has been powered by the Fed’s interest-rate increases
and expectations that rates could stay high for the foreseeable future. But the
latest surge has raised worries that the onslaught of new debt could
pressure bond prices for years to come.
“The rise in bond yields has been relentless,
and the price action has become disorderly,” said Sophia Drossos, an
economist and strategist at Greenwich, Conn.-based hedge fund Point72. “Much of
the bad news regarding Treasury supply appears to be getting priced in.”
The level of bond yields is key to both Wall Street
and Main Street. Roughly $25 trillion of Treasurys underpins the global banking
system and the reserve status of the dollar. Borrowing costs for companies and
households—including mortgage rates and the interest on loans—fluctuate with
benchmark yields. Stocks are valued in part based on how attractive their
potential returns are relative to those on Treasurys—meaning, all else being
equal, more bonds at higher yields means lower stock prices.
More
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds - WSJ
China
Raises Gold Reserves for Eleventh Straight Month
October 8, 2023
Past
months have seen Beijing's push to bolster its hefty bullion stockpile, which
came amid China's efforts to diversify away from the US dollar.
China has increased its gold
reserves for an 11th month in a row, according to official data released by the
country’s central bank.
The report shows that the
volume of the precious metal held by the People’s Bank of China soared
by 840,000 troy ounces in September, an equivalent
of 26 tons of bullion.
The country’s total reserves currently
stand at 2,191 tons, with about 217 tons
added in a run of purchases that started in November 2022.
In September, Huang Jun, an analyst at
financial trading platform FXTM, was quoted by Chinese media as saying that,
"It is very likely for the People's Bank of China to further boost its
gold reserves."
According to the analyst, the trend of China and
many other developing economies bolstering their gold reserves may continue to
support gold prices in the mid and long term. In the short term, though, gold
prices may feel the pressure of the US dollar, Huang added.
Chinese scholar and finance author Sun Xiaoji, in
turn, claimed that the country’s Central Bank is actively increasing its gold
holdings as it hasn't excluded a scenario where it may be expelled from the
global US dollar payment system.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID Reinfections
Clear Faster, Including in Unvaccinated People: Study
The
researchers also found that people who cleared infections quickly the first
time also cleared them quickly the second time.
10/7/2023 Updated: 10/8/2023
COVID-19
reinfections cleared faster than initial infections, including among people who
never received a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new study.
People infected
with COVID-19 a second time cleared the illness in a mean of 6.6 days, compared
with a mean of 9.3 days for the initial infection, U.S. and British researchers
reported in the paper.
Researchers drew
the findings from 1,796 first infections and 193 second infections.
The difference held
for a subset of 71 people who had two well-documented infections.
Among that
subset, the mean clearance time was 6.3 days, down from 9.2 days.
"Immunity
from a first SARS-CoV-2 infection affects the viral kinetics of a second
SARS-CoV-2 infection principally by speeding up viral clearance and thus
shortening the overall time of acute infection," the researchers,
including Dr. Yonatan Grad of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,
wrote.
The researchers
also found that people who cleared infections quickly the first time also
cleared them quickly the second time.
"While prior
infection and vaccination can modulate a person’s viral kinetics in absolute
terms, there may also exist some further immunological mechanism, conserved
across sequential infections, that determines one’s strength of immune response
against SARS-CoV-2 relative to others in the population," the researchers
posited.
The
study was published by Nature Communications.
The analysis
was based on COVID-19 tests taken from players, staff members, and affiliates
of the National Basketball Association between March 11, 2020, and July 28,
2022.
Limitations
include the population being primarily young, male, and healthy, though
adjustments were made for age. Researchers also said that people who were
infected multiple times "may differ in important immunological and
behavioral ways from those who only underwent one infection during the study
period."
Earlier studies have estimated strong
protection from natural immunity, or prior infection, against severe illness, but
that the shielding against infection waned over time.
More
COVID Reinfections Clear Faster, Including in Unvaccinated People: Study | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
The Battery Show India and Renewable Energy India
Expo 2023 power up together in Noida
Oct 09, 2023
The inaugural edition of The Battery Show
India, organised by Informa Markets, made its debut alongside the 16th edition
of Renewable Energy India 2023, the most extensive renewable energy expo
in Asia. The shows were co-located at the India Expo Centre in Greater
Noida, 4-6 October.
Alex Whitworth, vice-president and head of Asia
Pacific Power and Renewables Research, Wood Mackenzie said: “In the power
and renewables sector, two significant trends stand out: global market doubling
over the last two decades, with a projected double increase in the next two,
marking a stark contrast to fossil fuels, and wind and solar energy growing to
potentially represent half of the global power supply by 2050. Asia, led by
China and India, now commands over 60% of future global power demand, while
India grapples with 75% of fossil fuel-based power. However, technological
advancements are poised to quadruple wind and solar capacity in the coming two
decades. Challenges include accommodating variable renewables, with
expectations of reaching 87% of peak load, and increasing costs. The sector
requires over $3 trillion of investment in the next decade, with wind and solar
at the forefront, offering vast opportunities for industry stakeholders.”
Investments in green energy are rapidly increasing,
and the adoption of electric vehicles, particularly in India, will be crucial
for reducing transport sector emissions.
The Battery Show India showcased over 900 brands
and attracted 40,000 visitors.
Yogesh Mudras, managing director, Informa Markets India, said: “The
Battery Show India alongside Renewable Energy India 2023 Expo are comprehensive
catalysts for innovation and collaboration in the renewable energy, energy
storage, and EV sectors. India's leadership in renewables and EVs, driven by
ambitious targets and government support, has surged battery demand. The
events’ role in convening stakeholders, discussing trends, and forging
partnerships is instrumental in advancing these sectors and supporting India's
shift towards a clean energy future. India, the world’s fourth-largest
renewable energy producer, aims to achieve 500 GW of renewable capacity by
2030, with battery demand projected to grow at a remarkable CAGR of over
25%.”
The event included the CEO/CXO Conclave, CTO Forum,
REI Awards, and a conference spanning over 25 sessions across three days.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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