Tuesday, 10 October 2023

War? What War? US Consumers Wobble.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1991 +62            Brent Crude  87.71

Spot Gold 1861                  US 2 Year Yield 5.08

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

With the Hamas terrorist war dominating mainstream news, there’s no need for the LIR to add to coverage. Hamas by its own actions generated its own extinction.

But in cutting off water and food supplies to an enclave of 2.2 million people occupying a space  25 miles long by 7.5 miles wide at its widest, 3.7 miles wide at its narrowest, Israel’s government risks fracturing global solidarity with Israel.

In the US and global stock casinos, “War? What war?” Life chasing the filthy lucre, fuelled by the central banksters, goes on unfazed.

 

Hong Kong and Japan lead gains in Asia as investors shake off pressures from Hamas attack

UPDATED MON, OCT 9 2023 10:29 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets climbed across the board, as markets rally despite pressures from the attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped over 2.3%, leading gains in the region as the country comes back from a public holiday, with the Topix also gaining 2.09%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.2%, extending gains from Monday and moving above the 7,000 mark.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.32%, while the Kosdaq added 0.68%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.8%, while mainland Chinese markets were also in positive territory, with the CSI 300 gaining 0.11%.

Hong Kong experienced a shortened trading day of just two hours Monday after the city canceled its morning session due to a typhoon warning.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes reversed losses in the earlier part of the trading day to gain ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.59%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.63%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.39%.

Asia stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

European markets set to open higher despite Middle East bloodshed

UPDATED TUE, OCT 10 2023 12:40 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a higher open Tuesday despite the geopolitical crisis and bloodshed in Israel and Gaza.

Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip with airstrikes Monday, as it continued its response to a surprise attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas that began Saturday morning.

Israeli ministers have ordered a “complete siege” of the already blockaded and impoverished Gaza Strip, cutting off supplies of food, water and electricity to its roughly two million residents.

Asia-Pacific markets also climbed across the board overnight while U.S. stock futures were near the flat line on Monday night as Wall Street assessed the impact and risks of a protracted conflict in the Israel-Hamas war

European markets live updates: stocks, data, earnings, Israel crisis (cnbc.com)

Back in the real world though, higher interest rates and a Chinese property market crash are starting to bite.

 

Country Garden says it may not be able to repay debt, warns of uncertainty around liquidity position

Chinese real estate developer Country Garden Holdings said it expects it will not be able to make all of its offshore repayments, including those issued in U.S. dollar notes.

The company failed to make a debt repayment of 470 million Hong Kong dollars ($60 million), as of Tuesday.

Country Garden warned that this could lead to creditors demanding faster repayments of debt or pursuing enforcement action. Shares of the company fell 1.19%, compared with the broader Hang Seng index which rose about 2%.

In early September, the company narrowly avoided default after it managed to pay $22.5 million in bond coupon payments and its creditors voted to extend repayments on six onshore bonds by three years.

Country Garden also recorded contracted sales of 6.17 billion yuan ($846 million) for September — the sixth straight month of decline and a decrease of 80.7% from a year ago.

Looking ahead, the company expects uncertainty in its liquidity position and asset sales in the short and medium term amid a lack of material, industry-wide improvement in property sales.

Chinese property giants such as Evergrande and Country Garden have been plagued by debt problems, hurting consumer confidence in the sector.

Country Garden says it may not be able to repay debt (cnbc.com)

Consumers starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns

The draw of bargains may be fading.

As three of the nation’s biggest retailers kick off a key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns consumers are starting to buckle for the first time in a decade.

He’s blaming a list of headwinds weighing on consumers including inflation, higher interest rates, federal budget wrangling, polarized politics and student loan repayments — and now new global tensions connected to violence in Israel.

“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” the former Walmart U.S. CEO told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

The timing comes as Amazon begins its two-day Prime Big Deal Days sale on TuesdayWalmart and Target are trying to compete with their own sales events to get an early jump on the holiday- shopping season.

Simon observes the retailers have a glaring thing in common: The bargains are not as deep.

‘You’re not real proud of your price point’

“They usually say 50-inch TV [is] $199 or something like that. And now, they say 50-inch TV [is] 40% off,” said Simon. “You use percentages when you’re not real proud of your price point. I think you’ve got inflation pushing the relative price points up.”

Shares of AmazonWalmart and Target are under pressure over the past two months. Target is performing the worst of the three — off 19%.

Simon, who sits on the Darden Restaurants and HanesBrands boards, believes Walmart does have a big advantage over its competitors right now.

“It’s solely because of the food business,” Simon said. “They’re going to have both the eyeballs and the food traffic to probably have a better Christmas than maybe their competitors.”

Consumers buckling for first time in decade: Former Walmart U.S. CEO (cnbc.com)

US automakers increase strike layoffs by more than 800

By David Shepardson 

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI) said on Monday it is laying off another 570 workers and General Motors (GM.N) announced cuts of nearly 200 employee due to the United Auto Workers strike.

 

Ford said Monday another 70 workers had been laid off in Michigan, bringing the total at the automaker to 1,865 since the strike began. There are a total of 640 workers at Stellantis that have been laid off.

Stellantis, which has had a total of 640 layoffs, said the latest include 520 at its Trenton, Michigan engine plant as well as 50 at an Indiana casting plant. Stellantis said the layoffs were due to storage constraints.

GM increased its layoffs by 200 to 2,300, affecting six plants including its Lansing, Michigan, stamping plant and a Toledo, Ohio, plant.

GM said workers are not expected to return until the strike is resolved. The strike began Sept. 15.

US automakers increase strike layoffs by more than 800 | Reuters

Next, get ready for yet another commodity scandal. China’s “Mr. Copper” goes “missing.”

 

Chinese Copper Tycoon Goes Missing, Believed to Be Detained by Police

Executives at trader Maike lost contact with founder He Jinbi

Maike suffered liquidity crisis last year amid Covid lockdowns

·         October 9, 2023 at 5:34 PM GMT+1

·         Updated on October 10, 2023 at 4:09 AM GMT+1

 

Executives at one of China’s largest copper trading houses have lost contact with the company’s founder and believe that he has been detained by police for questioning, according to people familiar with the matter.

He Jinbi founded and built Maike Metals International Co. into China’s biggest importer of refined copper before a liquidity crisis last year brought the company to its knees. Colleagues haven’t heard from him for at least a day, and have been informed that he was taken away by police for interviews in his home province of Shaanxi, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is sensitive.

More, subscription required.

Maike Metals Founder He Jinbi Goes Missing, Believed to Be Detained by Police - Bloomberg

Finally, as usual, more bad news from cryptoland.

City watchdog issued nearly 150 alerts on crypto ads in 24 hours after new regulations

MONDAY 09 OCTOBER 2023 11:45 AM

The City watchdog issued nearly 150 alerts on the first day of its new crypto marketing regime as unauthorised crypto firms felt the heat from the new regulations.

Under the rules which came into force yesterday, firms promoting crypto in the UK must be authorised or registered by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), or have their marketing approved by an authorised firm.

Promotions must also be clear and labelled with prominent risk warnings.

Within 24 hours, 146 alerts were issued to firms who were advertising crypto investments without registration or authorisation from the FCA.

Among those hit with warnings was the ironically named Legit Crypto Mining and Wavy Crypto. Superb Coin and earnbitprofit.com also had alerts placed on them.

“We expect businesses including social media platforms, app stores, search engines, domain name registrars and payments firms to consider the alerts we have issued and play their part in protecting UK consumers from illegal promotions,” the FCA said.

The FCA reiterated that crypto investment remain “high-risk” and warned that investors “should be prepared to lose all their money.”

“The FCA has wasted no time in ramping up pressure on non-compliant cryptoasset businesses servicing UK customers,” said Mike Ringer, a financial services partner with law firm CMS. 

Alongside the new authorisation requirements, the new rules – which were announced in June – ban refer-a-friend bonuses and will introduce a “cooling-off” period, where first time investors will have to wait a full day before they can complete their transaction.

The FCA has offered some breathing space for some crypto firms on a few of the more cumbersome rules, including the cooling-off period. They will have until the 8th January to implement those changes.  

City watchdog issues nearly 150 warnings on crypto within 24 hours (cityam.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.   

Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds

Investors long shrugged off U.S. deficits, but a torrent of Treasurys is testing the bond market

Updated Oct. 8, 2023 12:02 am ET

The autumn bond rout is challenging Wall Street’s longstanding belief that the U.S. government can’t sell too many Treasurys.

Ever since the Federal Reserve broke the inflation scare of the 1980s, Wall Street and Washington have shrugged off multitrillion-dollar deficits, counting on America’s global standing to provide perpetual demand for its debt that could finance the spending. Now, the steep declines in prices of Treasurys—meant to be the world’s safest and easiest-to-trade investment—are forcing markets to confront the possibility that the rates required to place all this debt will be higher than anyone expected.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which rises when bond prices fall, briefly surged near 4.9% on Friday after the monthly jobs report showed U.S. employers hired nearly double the workers that economists were anticipating. The strength of the labor market is one reason bond yields have soared this year, reflecting an improved outlook for economic growth and inflation. 

Another came this summer, after the Treasury Department caught Wall Street off guard by announcing it would borrow roughly $1 trillion in the year’s third quarter, more than a quarter trillion dollars above previous expectations. Already more than $1.76 trillion of Treasurys has been issued on a net basis through September, higher than in any full year in the past decade, excluding 2020’s pandemic surge. Official estimates show that is unlikely to decrease.

Few expect a U.S. default or a Treasury auction to fail—a practically unheard-of occurrence that traders warn could lead to a truly chaotic period in markets, likely with prices falling across the board for some period. Much of the benchmark 10-year yield’s climb from around 1.5% at the beginning of 2022 has been powered by the Fed’s interest-rate increases and expectations that rates could stay high for the foreseeable future. But the latest surge has raised worries that the onslaught of new debt could pressure bond prices for years to come.

 “The rise in bond yields has been relentless, and the price action has become disorderly,” said Sophia Drossos, an economist and strategist at Greenwich, Conn.-based hedge fund Point72. “Much of the bad news regarding Treasury supply appears to be getting priced in.”

The level of bond yields is key to both Wall Street and Main Street. Roughly $25 trillion of Treasurys underpins the global banking system and the reserve status of the dollar. Borrowing costs for companies and households—including mortgage rates and the interest on loans—fluctuate with benchmark yields. Stocks are valued in part based on how attractive their potential returns are relative to those on Treasurys—meaning, all else being equal, more bonds at higher yields means lower stock prices.

More

Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds - WSJ

China Raises Gold Reserves for Eleventh Straight Month

October 8, 2023

Past months have seen Beijing's push to bolster its hefty bullion stockpile, which came amid China's efforts to diversify away from the US dollar.

China has increased its gold reserves for an 11th month in a row, according to official data released by the country’s central bank.

The report shows that the volume of the precious metal held by the People’s Bank of China soared by 840,000 troy ounces in September, an equivalent of 26 tons of bullion.

The country’s total reserves currently stand at 2,191 tons, with about 217 tons added in a run of purchases that started in November 2022.

In September, Huang Jun, an analyst at financial trading platform FXTM, was quoted by Chinese media as saying that, "It is very likely for the People's Bank of China to further boost its gold reserves."

According to the analyst, the trend of China and many other developing economies bolstering their gold reserves may continue to support gold prices in the mid and long term. In the short term, though, gold prices may feel the pressure of the US dollar, Huang added.

Chinese scholar and finance author Sun Xiaoji, in turn, claimed that the country’s Central Bank is actively increasing its gold holdings as it hasn't excluded a scenario where it may be expelled from the global US dollar payment system.

More

China Raises Gold Reserves for Eleventh Straight Month - Sputnik International, 08.10.2023 (sputnikglobe.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID Reinfections Clear Faster, Including in Unvaccinated People: Study

 

The researchers also found that people who cleared infections quickly the first time also cleared them quickly the second time.

10/7/2023 Updated: 10/8/2023

 

COVID-19 reinfections cleared faster than initial infections, including among people who never received a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new study.

People infected with COVID-19 a second time cleared the illness in a mean of 6.6 days, compared with a mean of 9.3 days for the initial infection, U.S. and British researchers reported in the paper.

Researchers drew the findings from 1,796 first infections and 193 second infections.

The difference held for a subset of 71 people who had two well-documented infections.

Among that subset, the mean clearance time was 6.3 days, down from 9.2 days.

"Immunity from a first SARS-CoV-2 infection affects the viral kinetics of a second SARS-CoV-2 infection principally by speeding up viral clearance and thus shortening the overall time of acute infection," the researchers, including Dr. Yonatan Grad of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, wrote.

The researchers also found that people who cleared infections quickly the first time also cleared them quickly the second time.

"While prior infection and vaccination can modulate a person’s viral kinetics in absolute terms, there may also exist some further immunological mechanism, conserved across sequential infections, that determines one’s strength of immune response against SARS-CoV-2 relative to others in the population," the researchers posited.

The study was published by Nature Communications.

The analysis was based on COVID-19 tests taken from players, staff members, and affiliates of the National Basketball Association between March 11, 2020, and July 28, 2022.

Limitations include the population being primarily young, male, and healthy, though adjustments were made for age. Researchers also said that people who were infected multiple times "may differ in important immunological and behavioral ways from those who only underwent one infection during the study period."

Earlier studies have estimated strong protection from natural immunity, or prior infection, against severe illness, but that the shielding against infection waned over time.

More

COVID Reinfections Clear Faster, Including in Unvaccinated People: Study | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The Battery Show India and Renewable Energy India Expo 2023 power up together in Noida

Oct 09, 2023

The inaugural edition of The Battery Show India, organised by Informa Markets, made its debut alongside the 16th edition of Renewable Energy India 2023, the most extensive renewable energy expo in Asia. The shows were co-located at the India Expo Centre in Greater Noida, 4-6 October.

Alex Whitworth, vice-president and head of Asia Pacific Power and Renewables Research, Wood Mackenzie said: “In the power and renewables sector, two significant trends stand out: global market doubling over the last two decades, with a projected double increase in the next two, marking a stark contrast to fossil fuels, and wind and solar energy growing to potentially represent half of the global power supply by 2050. Asia, led by China and India, now commands over 60% of future global power demand, while India grapples with 75% of fossil fuel-based power. However, technological advancements are poised to quadruple wind and solar capacity in the coming two decades. Challenges include accommodating variable renewables, with expectations of reaching 87% of peak load, and increasing costs. The sector requires over $3 trillion of investment in the next decade, with wind and solar at the forefront, offering vast opportunities for industry stakeholders.”

Investments in green energy are rapidly increasing, and the adoption of electric vehicles, particularly in India, will be crucial for reducing transport sector emissions.

The Battery Show India showcased over 900 brands and attracted 40,000 visitors.

Yogesh Mudras, managing director, Informa Markets India, said: “The Battery Show India alongside Renewable Energy India 2023 Expo are comprehensive catalysts for innovation and collaboration in the renewable energy, energy storage, and EV sectors. India's leadership in renewables and EVs, driven by ambitious targets and government support, has surged battery demand. The events’ role in convening stakeholders, discussing trends, and forging partnerships is instrumental in advancing these sectors and supporting India's shift towards a clean energy future. India, the world’s fourth-largest renewable energy producer, aims to achieve 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, with battery demand projected to grow at a remarkable CAGR of over 25%.” 

The event included the CEO/CXO Conclave, CTO Forum, REI Awards, and a conference spanning over 25 sessions across three days.

The Battery Show India and Renewable Energy India Expo 2023 power up together in Noida (exhibitionworld.co.uk)

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment