Monday, 16 October 2023

War Or Wider War? Sanity Or Insanity?

Baltic Dry Index. 1945 +10          Brent Crude  90.94

Spot Gold 1920                  US 2 Year Yield 5.04 -0.02

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

In the stock casinos this morning, nervous relief that Israel hasn’t yet actually invaded Gaza and has announced that it will restore water supplies to southern Gaza. But without restoring Gaza’s electricity supply, it is hard to see how Gaza can restore water supply and restart sanitation.

But no one really expects Israel to delay its invasion of north Gaza for long.

The week ahead has economic data from China and Japan, though both are likely to be over shadowed by what happens next in the Middle East.

 

Asia markets dip as investors look ahead to China GDP, Japan inflation data

UPDATED MON, OCT 16 2023 12:16 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets started the week on soft footing as investors look ahead to key economic data from China and Japan this week.

Most notably, China will release its third-quarter gross domestic product numbers on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect a 4.4% year-on-year expansion, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter.

The People’s Bank of China left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.

Japan’s September inflation data is expected on Friday, which will come ahead of the country’s central bank’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 30 and 31.

South Korea’s central bank will also announce its rate decision on Thursday. The Bank of Korea has held rates steady for five meetings in a row at 3.5% since February.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.67%, while the Topix dropped 1.32%.

South Korea’s Kospi index dipped 0.58%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened marginally lower at 0.05%, while China’s benchmark CSI 300 index dipped 0.19% at open.

On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes ended the day mixed, pressured by a spike in oil prices and rising inflation expectations, as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile week.

The S&P 500 declined by 0.50%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.23% The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the outlier, rising by 0.12%

Asia stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Stock futures rise slightly to kick off a busy earnings week: Live updates

UPDATED SUN, OCT 15 2023 6:57 PM EDT

Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.12% and 0.16%, respectively.

Stocks are coming off a mixed session and week. The S&P 500 advanced 0.45% for its second consecutive positive week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.79%. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 0.2% for the week and fell 1.23% during Friday’s session, while the S&P dipped 0.5% and the Dow inched up 0.12%.

Oil prices spiked more than 5% during Friday’s session and posted their best day since April as the conflict between Israel and Hamas fueled some fears related to oil production in the region.

Meanwhile, Wall Street assessed a slew reports from major financial firms, with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo gaining 1.5% and 3%, respectively.

Despite these mostly positive results, some on Wall Street are bracing for more volatility into year end as yields and oil prices rise, inflation remains sticky, and conflict ensues in the Middle East, said Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s head of equity derivatives and cross-asset.

“This Mideast situation is kind of showing that when you own equities, you are taking risks,” he told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Friday. “As a result, you need to have good upside returns in order to justify that risk, because there are things that come out of nowhere, like this situation.”

More

Stock futures today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In other news, what happens next in the Middle East dominates. At worst, the Israel-Gaza war widens out into a regional war generating a new oil crisis. At best, some sort of limited Israeli incursion into Gaza leads to some sort of humanitarian relief for Gazans.

 

Israel-Hamas war live updates: Iran warns war could expand; China says Gaza offensive is ‘beyond self-defense’

UPDATED MON, OCT 16 2023 12:37 AM EDT

Israel’s military continued to urge residents to move from northern Gaza to the south as it pledged to counter Hamas with “an even greater force.” The Israel Defense Forces said it would not carry out any military operations along the evacuation route from 10 a.m. local time (3 a.m. ET) to 1 p.m. Sunday.

The evacuation orders have been criticized by many humanitarian agencies, however. After negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden, a decision to renew water supplies to parts of southern Gaza was agreed upon, Israel Energy Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday. The UN warned late Saturday that the lack of water and fuel in Gaza had “become a matter of life or death.”

Energy Minister Israel Katz said that the decision to partially renew water supplies was in line with Israeli policy, which is to tighten a blockade on the Hamas-ruled territory.

On Sunday, China urged Israel to end its collective punishment of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, saying that “Israel’s actions have gone beyond self-defense.” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s comments came during a series of weekend calls, as world leaders worked to avert a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Sunday that the Senate would swiftly push through a military aid package to help Israel in its fight against Hamas.

----- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will head back to Israel after meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday. The top U.S. diplomat is also expected to land in Egypt later in the day and work on a deal to grant safe passage of Americans currently in Gaza through the Rafah gate — the only crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

Gaza — a narrow strip of land sandwiched between Egypt, Israel and the Mediterranean Sea — has been pounded by Israeli forces in response to Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel last weekend. The death toll continues to tick higher, with at least 1,400 killed in Israel and nearly 2,700 in Gaza. The number of hostages believed to be held by the militants has jumped to 155, according to IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagar.

Israel-Hamas war updates and latest and news on Gaza (cnbc.com)

Nervous markets eye Gaza as oil hovers above $90

By Kevin Buckland 

TOKYO, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Crude oil hovered above $90 a barrel while equities were weak and the safe-haven dollar was firm on Monday as investors nervously watched for whether escalating violence in Gaza would cause the conflict to spread beyond Israel and Hamas.

 

Israel's shekel sank to a nearly eight-year low, after the country's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, vowed to "demolish Hamas" in retaliation for the rampage on Oct. 7 that killed 1,300 people in the worst attack on civilians in Israel's history.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting the region, seeking to prevent further escalation. Netanyahu agreed to lift a blockade of water supplies to parts of southern Gaza after speaking with U.S. President Joe Biden.

Brent crude futures reached a new recent high of $91.20 on Monday before easing back slightly to $90.84, following Friday's 5.7% surge.

Japan's Nikkei share average (.N225) fell more than 1%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) lost 0.15% in early trading. New Zealand's equity benchmark (.NZ50) slid 0.9%.

 

---- "Risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians."

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were little changed at 4.6434%, following a more than 8 basis point decline on Friday amid demand for the safety of bonds.

Currencies overall retraced some of their moves from the end of the week, with the U.S. dollar index easing slightly to 106.55 from as high as 106.79 on Friday.

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0522 while the yen was little changed at 149.505 per dollar.

Nervous markets eye Gaza as oil hovers above $90 | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.   

Ex-Walmart CEO Says US Consumers Reaching Breaking Point

 

Political polarization, inflation, and high interest rates are all working together to undermine consumers and their propensity to spend, he warns.

10/13/2023 Updated: 10/13/2023

 

The all-mighty American consumer, whose spending drives the economy, is reaching a breaking point and is on the verge of folding, according to former Walmart CEO Bill Simon.

Mr. Simon told CNBC in a recent interview that a series of factors—political polarization, inflation, and high interest rates—were all working together to undermine consumers and their propensity to spend.

“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” Mr. Simon told the outlet. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

Consumer spending is a major driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).

Mr. Simon, who now serves on the Board of Directors for Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands Inc., said that, after a long period of cheap money cut short by the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes in response to soaring inflation, consumers are now beginning to buckle.

"Consumers had an incredible 10-, 12-year run," he told CNBC's "Fast Money" program. "Markets were buoyant. Interest rates were low. Money was available."

But now, the music has stopped, and the party is grinding to a halt.

Faced with soaring inflation that remained persistently high despite predictions that the price spike would be short-lived, Fed officials have pushed the benchmark federal funds rate quickly from near zero in March 2022 to its current range of 5.25–5.5 percent.

Despite all the monetary tightening so far, inflation remains uncomfortably high.

The government released the latest data on inflation on Thursday, showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7 percent in September, matching August's pace. While that's down from a recent peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 and lower than the 8.2 percent pace a year ago, it's still well above the Fed's inflation target of 2 percent.

Even though a number of Fed officials have, in recent days, suggested that the rate-hiking cycle may have reached its peak, newly released minutes detailing internal discussions during the Fed's latest rate-setting policy meeting in September show most of them think one more rate increase is in store—followed by a period of higher interest rates for "some time."

The higher-for-longer interest rate environment means tighter financial conditions, marked by more expensive borrowing and reduced lending, putting a damper on economic activity. It also tends to mean less consumer spending.

More

Ex-Walmart CEO Says US Consumers Reaching Breaking Point | The Epoch Times

 

USDA LOWERS ITS SEPTEMBER CORN, SOYBEAN PRODUCTION FORECAST


Oct. 13, 2023  Source: USDA news release

WASHINGTON, - Corn and soybean production is down from September 2023, according to the Crop Production report issued today by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn production is down 10% from last year, forecast at 15.1 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 4% from 2022, forecast at 4.10 billion bushels.

Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, corn yields are expected to average 173.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.4 bushel from 2022. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Also based on conditions as of Oct. 1, soybean yields are expected to average 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but unchanged from 2022. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4% from 2022.

Today's report also included a production forecast for U.S. cotton. All cotton production is forecast at 12.8 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 767 pounds per harvested acre, down 19 pounds from the previous forecast and down 183 pounds from 2022. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Pima cotton production is forecast at 356,000 bales, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 24% from 2022. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 8.02 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 10% from 2022.

More

AgriMarketing.com - USDA Lowers Its September Corn, Soybean Production Forecast

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

‘We Can't Force the Human Body to Accept Foreign Genetic Code': Dr. McCullough on mRNA Technology

The doctor called mRNA vaccines a ‘failed concept’ and something that the government and military have been testing for quite a long time.

10/11/2023  Updated: 10/11/2023

 

Cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough warned that messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines inject “foreign genetic code” into human beings, which the body fails to break down or expel for a prolonged period of time.

Research on mRNA “has been going on for decades,” Dr. McCullough said during an Oct. 5 interview. The 2023 Nobel Prize for medicine was awarded to two scientists for making “messenger RNA long-lasting in the human body,” he said. “I mean, it has been tested in multiple applications … It's an absolute bust. It was just the worst idea ever to install the genetic code for a lethal protein without being able to shut it off. It wasn't the fact that it was rushed; it's just ill-conceived from the very beginning.”

“We can't force the human body to accept foreign genetic code and produce a foreign protein … Messenger RNA for vaccines is a completely failed concept. It’s a dangerous concept, and the U.S. government wasn't honest. They should have been honest. Trump should have come out and said, ‘Listen, it's on our website; our military's been working on this since 2012.’”

During a testimony at the European Parliament last month, Dr. McCullough said, “There's not a single study showing that the messenger RNA is broken down” in the human body once it is injected.

“There's not a study showing it leaves the body.” Since the vaccines are “made synthetically, they cannot be broken down.”

He added that the lethal protein from the [COVID-19] vaccines found in the human body after vaccination was found to be circulating “at least for six months, if not longer.”

In the case of seasonal jabs, that is, taking an injection or booster at the end of six months as recommended by the authorities, “there's another installation in more circulating potentially lethal protein.”

Scientist Drew Weissman, who won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his role in developing mRNA technology, warned in a 2018 paper that not only did clinical trials of mRNA vaccines produce “more modest [results] in humans than was expected based on animal models,” but that the “side effects were not trivial.”

More

‘We Can't Force the Human Body to Accept Foreign Genetic Code': Dr. McCullough on mRNA Technology | The Epoch Times

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New neodymium-doped material can fish uranium out of seawater

Michael Franco  October 12, 2023

Since the 1960s, researchers have been turning to an unlikely harvesting ground for uranium: the world's oceans. Now, an Australian-led team has moved the prospect of sea-based uranium harvesting another step forward with a cheap and easy-to-make material.

As the planet begins its slow move away from carbon-based fuel sources, alternative energies are coming to the fore. While solar, wind, and hydroelectric technologies tend to steal the spotlight in this arena, nuclear energy is still a mighty contender. In fact, in 2017, it contributed to about 10% of the world's energy production and in 2022, 8 GW of new nuclear power joined the global grid.

Key to nuclear power generation is uranium, an element that is only found on land in a few countries, where underground supplies will continue to diminish as nuclear power plants proliferate. Not so with the underwater supply, however. It is estimated that there are about 4.5 billion tonnes of the element in the world's oceans, compared to just about six million on land. That's enough to generate power planet-wide for thousands of years.

Retrieving all that uranium has proven tricky though, as it is present in seawater in extremely small concentrations.

----Seeking to overcome these difficulties, researchers from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), the University of New South Wales, and other colleagues turned to layered double hydroxides (LDH). These relatively easy-to-make materials consist of layers of positively and negatively charged ions. The team doped these LDHs with various chemicals including neodymium, terbium, and europium, soaked them in seawater, and analyzed the results using intensive imaging from X-ray adsorption spectroscopy.

The researchers found that when neodymium was combined with LDHs, the resulting compound was able to grab uranium from seawater over 10 other more abundant elements. These include sodium, calcium, magnesium and potassium, which are present in quantities that are about 400 times greater than that of the uranium. According to the researchers, this selectivity, along with the low cost of producing the doped LDH material should go a long way toward making the large-scale harvesting of uranium from seawater a greater likelihood.

"These findings indicate that dopant engineering of LDHs provides a simple, effective method for controlling selectivity and producing adsorbents capable of challenging separations such as uranium extraction from seawater," wrote the researchers in the study, which has been published as a cover story in the journal Energy Advances.

Source: ANSTO

New neodymium-doped material can fish uranium out of seawater (newatlas.com)

“It is not enough to win a war; it is more important to organize the peace.”

 Aristotle.

 

 

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