Baltic Dry Index. 1972 +27 Brent Crude 89.61
Spot Gold 1915 US 2 Year Yield 5.09 +0.05
All wars are follies, very expensive and very mischievous ones.
Benjamin Franklin.
In the stock casinos, life goes on as normal, though in reality our world is far from normal.
We are one misstep away from repeating Austria-Hungary’s mistake in July 1914.
Did President Biden just repeat Kaiser Bill’s “blank cheque” mistake to Austria in 1914 with his unlimited support of Israel’s actions in Gaza, 2023?
Will October 7, 2023 become our June 28, 1914?
Asia stocks rise on
earnings hopes; keep wary eye on Mideast tensions
By Selena Li October 17, 20234:37 AM GMT+1
HONG KONG, Oct 17
(Reuters) - Asian stocks rose in cautious trade on Tuesday, with investors
choosing to focus on corporate earnings prospects and the resilience of the
U.S. economy ahead of tensions in the Middle East.
MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) advanced 0.4%.
Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) rose
1%.
Overnight
the S&P 500 (.SPX) had
climbed 1%, while oil prices and the U.S. dollar had fallen.
A host of
"favorable" signs from the strength of the U.S. consumer, economic
growth, and interest rates supporting bank profits, gave reasons for hope, said
Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Quarterly
results from Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) are due on Tuesday,
with Morgan Stanley (MS.N), pharmaceutical giant
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Netflix (NFLX.O) due later in the
week.
A recent shift in
tone from Federal Reserve officials - hinting that interest rate hikes might be
over - has also cheered investors and bond markets lately.
Benchmark
10-year Treasury yields are about 15 basis points off 16-year highs, though
they crept higher in Asia trade Tuesday to 4.7331%.
Investors are
also trying to assess risks that a wider conflict breaks out in the Middle East
which remains a "very fluid situation", Craig said.
More
Asia
stocks rise on earnings hopes; keep wary eye on Mideast tensions | Reuters
Stock futures are
little changed as Wall Street look towards busy earnings week: Live updates
UPDATED MON, OCT 16 2023 6:59 PM
EDT
U.S. stock futures were flat Monday night as the
third-quarter earnings season gains momentum.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose
just 13 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures
ticked up 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures
traded near the flatline.
The major averages all closed in
the green during Monday’s main trading session. Although Treasury yields
climbed higher — which typically puts downward pressure on equities — stocks
posted gains as investors became optimistic about corporate earnings. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7
basis points to 4.7% on Monday. Nonetheless, the yield on the 10-year Treasury
is still more than 10 basis points lower than its 16-year highs from earlier in
the month. Small caps also rallied Monday, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.6%.
A total of 53 companies in the
S&P 500, or about 11% of the index, are scheduled to report results this
week. Five names in the Dow will also be releasing their results. Key reports
on Tuesday morning include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman
Sachs and Lockheed Martin.
“If the economy is going to
re-accelerate, which it is doing, and if profits growth is going to
re-accelerate, which it is doing, then small caps should lead the way. That’s
what history says,” Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told
CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “And so I think there’s a little
element of rationality, returning to the equity market, and this market is
starting to broaden out a little bit.”
Several financial names kicked
off earnings season to a strong start, including Charles Schwab on Monday and
JPMorgan Chase on Friday. This has helped improve market sentiment amid
concerns surrounding the Israel-Hamas war. The conflict in the Middle East has
sparked concerns that tensions in the region may escalate to some of the
biggest oil producers, notably Iran.
The grim geopolitical and
inflation worries have raised market negativity, “but they are also the wall of
worry that ascending stock prices scale,” said George Ball, chairman at Sanders
Morris Harris.
In addition to Tuesday’s earnings
reports, Wall Street will also be keeping an eye out for fresh economic data.
Retail sales and industrial production data for September will be released
before the bell. October’s housing market index and business leaders survey
numbers are also scheduled to be announced Tuesday morning.
In Middle East war news, the world is rapidly
polarising into two camps.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince snubs Joe Biden’s top diplomat
October 16, 2023
The United States’ top diplomat was kept waiting for hours by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler as Washington’s attempts at shuttle diplomacy repeatedly stumbled.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed
to appear for a meeting with Tony Blinken, the US secretary of
state, on Saturday night, only showing up the next morning.
It came as Mr Blinken’s
attempt to negotiate a humanitarian corridor between Egypt and Gaza stalled,
delaying the evacuation of US citizens and other foreigners stranded amid the
Israel-Hamas conflict.
Joe Biden’s diplomat is on a
whirlwind tour of the Middle East to convince Arab partners to assist
with humanitarian efforts and avoid a wider regional war.
He was due to meet the Crown Prince on Saturday evening,
but the Saudi ruler did not show up until the following morning, the Washington
Post reported.
When he finally appeared, the Crown Prince called for a
halt in the “current escalation” in the conflict, a stance that runs contrary
to Washington, which has stopped short of calling for a ceasefire and backed
Israel’s right to defend itself.
‘Decline of US influence’
Analysts have suggested the Saudi ruler’s snub to Mr
Blinken points to the decline of US influence in the region as Washington walks
a tight-rope of supporting Israel while also averting a high civilian toll that
could inflame regional tensions.
Mr Blinken
has so far toured six Arab nations to rally support against Hamas.
US officials said he heard wide opposition to the
militant group but acknowledged he also understood the need to address the
plight of Palestinians in Gaza.
Mr Blinken also faced resistance in his meeting with Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who
denounced Hamas’s attack on civilians but blamed Israel for driving
Palestinians to desperation.
Meanwhile, Mr Blinken’s attempts to secure a temporary
opening of Egypt’s border with Gaza floundered amid contradictory remarks from
US and Egyptian officials.
Dozens of trucks carrying international aid, including
food, water, fuel and medical supplies, have lined up on the Egyptian side of
the Rafah crossing.
Hundreds of civilians, including US and other foreign
nationals, gathered on the other side after the US Embassy in Israel encouraged
its citizens to head to the border in anticipation of its opening.
However, the agreement has been held up by concerns in
Cairo that Israel will not commit to pausing air strikes, Egyptian officials
said.
‘Doom the Palestinian dream’
Cairo has also made clear it is unwilling to host a large
number of refugees from Gaza, which is home to more than two million
Palestinians, warning that doing so could doom the Palestinian dream of
statehood.
During the meeting at the presidential palace in Cairo,
Mr Sisi said Israel’s assaults have exceeded “the right of self-defence”, and
turned into “collective punishment”.
The Egyptian leader also appeared to rebuke Mr Blinken’s
recent remarks in Israel, in which he said he was speaking not just as a US
diplomat, but “as a Jew” who understands “on a personal level the harrowing
echoes Hamas’s massacres carry”.
Mr Sisi told him: “Jews who used to live here in Egypt
never suffered from oppression and persecution.”
More
Saudi
Arabia’s Crown Prince snubs Joe Biden’s top diplomat (msn.com)
China and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions
October 16, 2023
China and Russia have
hardened their positions towards the conflict in Gaza in recent days, as the
war between Israel and Hamas aggravates existing geopolitical tensions and
underscores the growing gulf between the cold war allies and western powers
such as the US, UK and France.
The Chinese foreign minister said over the weekend that
Israel’s bombing campaign had gone “beyond the scope of self-defence” and that
it “should stop collective punishment of the people of Gaza”.
On Friday, the Russian
president, Vladimir Putin, raised the possibility that an intensified siege of
Gaza by Israel may resemble that of Leningrad by German armies during the
second world war, a reference likely to cause deep offence in Israel.
Russia’s top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, arrived in Beijing
on Monday before an expected visit by Putin, which will raise western concerns
about increasingly close links between the two powers.
China has historically backed the Palestinian cause for
decades, as did the USSR throughout the cold war. More recently, both powers
have sought to balance closer ties with Israel with their broader diplomatic
efforts to win allies in the Arab world and more broadly.
Russia is seeking support for its continuing war in
Ukraine while China is looking to build a broader coalition of developing
countries to extend Beijing’s influence and reinforce its efforts to compete
with the US on the global stage.
Analysts have suggested China is looking to offset
concern in the Islamic and Arab worlds about Beijing’s treatment of the Muslim ethnic Uyghurs in
the north-western Chinese region of Xinjiang.
The Middle East supplies much of China’s oil needs and is
a nexus in the belt and road initiative, President Xi
Jinping’s ambitious infrastructure project to connect markets around the world
and so extend Beijing’s influence.
Since the war began, Chinese state media have been
critical of Israel and blamed the US, Israel’s strongest supporter, for fanning
tensions in the region. There has also been an increase in antisemitic content
on the heavily policed Chinese internet, according to Yaqiu Wang, the research
director for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at the US-based not-for-profit
organisation Freedom House.
Putin said
on Friday that Israel had been subjected to “an attack unprecedented in its
cruelty” by Hamas militants and had the right to defend itself but was
responding with cruel methods of its own. “The civilian casualties [likely in
the event of an Israeli ground offensive] will be absolutely unacceptable. Now
the main thing is to stop the bloodshed,” he said.
More
China
and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions
(msn.com)
How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power
Balance in Favor of Russia, China
Moscow and Beijing seek to ride the wave
of solidarity with Palestinians while taking advantage of American distraction
October 16, 2023
DUBAI—The war
between Israel and Hamas isn’t just risking a regional conflagration.
It is also affecting the global balance of power, stretching American
and European resources while relieving pressure on Russia and providing new
opportunities to China.
The long-term effect of the
Middle East flare-up is hard to predict. It depends, first of all, on
whether Israel is ultimately successful in its stated goal of eliminating Hamas
as Gaza’s main military and political force. Another critical issue is
whether Israel’s diplomatic relationships in the region and
the global standing of its Western supporters can survive the rising
civilian casualties in Gaza and the looming horrors of urban warfare in the
densely populated enclave.
But, for now, the war
launched by Hamas on Oct. 7 with a brutal attack on Israeli towns and
villages that killed some 1,400 people, mostly civilians, is proving a boon for
America’s main geopolitical rivals. China, Russia and Iran have long sought to
undermine the U.S.-backed international system and are now taking advantage of
America’s distraction.
“What we are seeing is part of a shifting and moving world order,”
said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is currently running
for Finland’s presidency. “When the U.S. leaves power vacuums, someone is going
to fill those vacuums.”
----Still, as Washington’s attention focuses on the Middle East, Russia is
probably the clearest beneficiary of the spreading upheaval. Pointing at
the mounting Palestinian deaths—around 2,750 by the latest
count—Moscow revels in what it calls the hypocrisy of the Western governments,
which have roundly condemned Russian massacres of civilians in Ukraine but
offer only mild, if any, criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza.
More
How
the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia,
China - WSJ
Malaysia pulls out of
Frankfurt Book Fair citing organisers' pro-Israel stance
October 17,
20234:14 AM GMT+1
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct
17 (Reuters) - Malaysia's education ministry has withdrawn from participating
in this year's Frankfurt Book Fair, accusing the organisers of taking a
pro-Israel stance, amid growing global divisions over the ongoing conflict
between Israeli and Palestinian forces.
The move by
Malaysia to pull out of what is considered the world's largest trade fair for
books came after literary association Litprom said it would postpone an award
ceremony for a novel by a Palestinian author at the event following the deadly
Oct. 7 attack by militant group Hamas in Israel.
The fair's
organiser also said on Facebook it would be making Jewish and Israeli voices
"especially visible" at this year's edition.
"The
ministry will not compromise with Israel’s violence in Palestine, which clearly
violates international laws and human rights," Malaysia's education
ministry said in a statement late on Monday.
"The
decision (to withdraw) is in line with the government’s stand to be in
solidarity and offer full support for Palestine."
Muslim-majority
Malaysia has long supported the Palestinian cause, with Prime Minister Anwar
Ibrahim saying this week that he did
not agree with Western pressure to condemn Hamas.
Anwar on Tuesday
called for an immediate end to bombardment in Gaza and the establishment of a
humanitarian corridor, following a phone conversation with Hamas leader Ismail
Haniyeh.
Malaysia pulls out of Frankfurt Book Fair citing organisers' pro-Israel stance | Reuters
Finally, in China news, it is deadline day
for Country Garden.
Country Garden
draws closer to debt deadline, as default risk looms
All of Country Garden’s
offshore debt could potentially be in default if the Chinese property developer
fails to make a $15 million coupon payment on Tuesday, which marks the end of a
30-day grace period.
The embattled
real estate giant warned last week it may not be able to make
all its offshore repayments, including those issued in U.S. dollar notes.
Once China’s largest real estate developer, Country
Garden narrowly avoided default in early September after it
managed to pay $22.5 million in bond coupon payments. Its creditors voted to
extend repayments on six onshore bonds by three years.
The founding family of Country Garden reportedly
provided the company with an interest-free loan of $300 million, Reuters reported Friday, saying the family was
trying to sell another jet to raise money.
If the Country Garden fails to make
the repayment on Tuesday, it would become the latest casualty among many large
Chinese real estate developers that have defaulted on their debt.
Chinese property giants including Evergrande and
Country Garden have been hit by debt problems, hurting consumer confidence in
the sector.
Shares of Country Garden rose 1.37%
in early trade, tracking a 0.86% rise in the broader Hang Seng Index
Country Garden draws closer to debt deadline, as default risk looms (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
As global debt
worries mount, is another crisis brewing?
By Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara
Ranasinghe and Maria Martinez
October 16, 20238:19 AM GMT+1U
LONDON, Oct 16
(Reuters) - Record debts, high interest rates, the costs of climate change,
health and pension spending as populations age and fractious politics are
stoking fears of a financial market crisis in big developed economies.
A surge in government borrowing costs has put high debt in
the spotlight, with investors demanding increased compensation to hold
long-term bonds and policymakers urging caution on public finances.
Over
80% of the $10 trillion rise in global debt in the first half to a record
$307 trillion came from developed
economies, the Institute of International Finance says.
The United
States, where brinkmanship around a debt limit brought it close to a default,
Italy and Britain are of most concern, more than 20 prominent economists,
former policymakers and big investors told Reuters.
They do not
expect a developed economy to struggle paying debt, but say governments must
deliver credible fiscal plans, raise taxes and boost growth to keep finances
manageable. Heightened geopolitical tensions add to costs.
A
fragile environment with higher rates and shrinking central bank support raises
the risk of a policy misstep sparking a market rout, as shown by Britain's
2022 "mini
budget" crisis.
Peter Praet,
former chief economist at the European Central Bank, said that while debt still
appears sustainable, the outlook is worrying given longer-term spending needs.
"You can
take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from
a public finances crisis," said Praet, who joined the ECB during 2011's
debt crisis.
"If you have
an accident, or a combination of events, then you go into an adverse non-linear
dynamic sort of process. That is something which is a real possibility."
More
As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Why does COVID-19 usually hit adults so much harder than kids? The nose knows.
October 16, 2023
It has been clear since early
in the coronavirus pandemic that children ‒ typically magnets for colds and the
flu ‒ weren't getting very sick from COVID-19. Now, a study suggests the answer
lies in their noses.
The study
from researchers at Stanford University and Cincinnati Children's Hospital found the immune systems of younger children
typically wipe out the SARS-CoV-2 virus when it arrives in the nose.
In adults,
by contrast, the virus that causes COVID-19 generally reaches the bloodstream
before the immune system begins to fight back. That allows the virus to cause
more havoc in adults.
The findings suggest there
may be a way to provide protection for adults by mimicking what is naturally
found in children.
More than 90% of children age 4 and younger in the U.S. have been
infected with the virus that causes COVID-19,
according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But children under
5, who represent about 6% of the U.S. population, account for far less than 1% of COVID-19 deaths in the country.
The
discovery came during a collaboration between an Ohio pediatric hospital and a
research lab in Northern California. Early in the pandemic, researchers at
Stanford University asked their collaborators at Cincinnati Children's to send
them samples from children who were severely ill with COVID-19. But they
couldn't find any.
Curious, the teams decided to explore
why children seemed far less affected by the virus than adults.
The study, co-funded by the National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, involved 81 infants and children
whose mothers had enrolled during their third trimester of pregnancy. Parents
collected weekly nasal swabs from their babies starting at 2 weeks old, and
blood was drawn regularly beginning at 6 weeks and if the children became
infected with the virus.
Fifty-four of the children were
infected and had mild COVID-19 during the study period, while the remaining 27
tested negative throughout.
Thirty-eight mothers, half of whom
contracted COVID-19, also provided weekly nasal swabs, and 89 adults with
COVID-19 and 13 health controls provided blood samples.
The study found that when an adult is
infected with COVID-19, their immune system quickly produces a burst of
antibodies for the virus. The presence of these antibodies then drops off,
falling tenfold within six months, the study found.
In infants and younger children,
however, it takes longer to produce that spike, but then their antibody levels
don't decrease. Over the 300-day observation period, children's antibody levels
either remained high or kept climbing, eventually reaching the same level as
adults during the spike.
The range of antibodies they produced
was also a bit narrower than adults did, the researchers noted. Their
antibodies specifically targeted the original variant but were less protective
against others.
Infected adults also had high levels
of proteins called inflammatory cytokines in their blood, which can sometimes
cause dangerous overreactions to the virus, leading to severe disease and even
death. In contrast, the children and babies had high levels of inflammatory
cytokines in their noses, along with an antiviral, but not in their blood.
Stimulating high levels of cytokines
in the noses of adults, perhaps with a nasal vaccine, might provide the same
level of protection as children naturally have, the researchers said.
More
Why does COVID-19 usually hit adults so much harder than kids? The nose knows. (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
A Tesla owner says his 'heart
missed a beat' when he received a $20,000 bill after the battery was damaged by
rain
Mon, 16 October 2023 at
11:14 am BST
A Tesla owner said he was "flabbergasted" when he
and his partner were hit with a hefty bill to fix their electric vehicle.
Johnny Bacigalupo and Rob Hussey
told Scottish news outlet Edinburgh Live they were given a £17,374, or $20,698, bill to fix
their Tesla after its battery was damaged by rain last week.
"I honestly can't believe
that this has happened. When I first got the call I thought we would get a bill
for £500 or £1,000," Bacigalupo told Edinburgh Live. "When they said
over 17 grand – it's absolutely obscene. My heart missed a beat,
honestly."
Elon Musk said
in 2019 that it could cost between $5,000 and $10,000 to replace a Tesla battery, J.D. Power reported, noting that the figures are
different in 2023. Recurrent, which reports on EV battery health, said battery replacement could cost anywhere from $5,000 to $20,000.
After being unable to start their
vehicle and arranging to have it delivered to Tesla Edinburgh by a collection
firm, Bacigalupo and Hussey received a call on Wednesday informing them that
the battery was "damaged due to water ingress."
The 8-year warranty didn't cover
this, and they were asked if they wanted to proceed with a repair costing
$20,698.
"Did I wish to proceed?? I was flabbergasted and couldn't really find my
words," Bacigalupo said, who told the Tesla representative that the couple
wasn't at fault.
The outlet said it verified the
bill via correspondence between Tesla and the couple and that it had seen an
email from Tesla customer relations, which says it's investigating the
complaint.
A similar incident occurred last
year when a Canadian Tesla owner was told it would cost $26,000 to get a
replacement battery for his vehicle, Fox Business reported
The owner, Mario Zelaya, shared his
experience in a TikTok video and said he was locked out of his Tesla Model S
after the battery died. Zelaya said he eventually sold his Tesla after he spent
$30 getting replacement ownership papers, which were locked in the vehicle.
EV batteries can deteriorate at
various rates depending on numerous factors, including how they were charged
and the environment in which the vehicle was driven.
Tesla Europe didn't immediately
respond to Insider's request for comment.
We sit in calm, airy, silent rooms opening upon sunlit and embowered lawns, not a sound except of summer and of husbandry disturbs the peace; but seven million men, any ten thousand of whom could have annihilated the ancient armies, are in ceaseless battle from the Alps to the Ocean.
Winston Churchill.
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