Tuesday, 17 October 2023

October 7, 2023. June 28, 1914.

Baltic Dry Index. 1972 +27            Brent Crude  89.61

Spot Gold 1915                   US 2 Year Yield 5.09 +0.05

All wars are follies, very expensive and very mischievous ones.

Benjamin Franklin.

In the stock casinos, life goes on as normal, though in reality our world is far from normal.

We are one misstep away from repeating Austria-Hungary’s mistake in July 1914.

Did President Biden just repeat Kaiser Bill’s “blank cheque” mistake to Austria in 1914 with his unlimited support of Israel’s actions in Gaza, 2023?

Will October 7, 2023 become our June 28, 1914?

 

Asia stocks rise on earnings hopes; keep wary eye on Mideast tensions

By Selena Li 

HONG KONG, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose in cautious trade on Tuesday, with investors choosing to focus on corporate earnings prospects and the resilience of the U.S. economy ahead of tensions in the Middle East.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) advanced 0.4%. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) rose 1%.

Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) had climbed 1%, while oil prices and the U.S. dollar had fallen.

 

A host of "favorable" signs from the strength of the U.S. consumer, economic growth, and interest rates supporting bank profits, gave reasons for hope, said Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Quarterly results from Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) are due on Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley (MS.N), pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Netflix (NFLX.O) due later in the week.

 

A recent shift in tone from Federal Reserve officials - hinting that interest rate hikes might be over - has also cheered investors and bond markets lately.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are about 15 basis points off 16-year highs, though they crept higher in Asia trade Tuesday to 4.7331%.

Investors are also trying to assess risks that a wider conflict breaks out in the Middle East which remains a "very fluid situation", Craig said.

More

Asia stocks rise on earnings hopes; keep wary eye on Mideast tensions | Reuters

 

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street look towards busy earnings week: Live updates

UPDATED MON, OCT 16 2023 6:59 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were flat Monday night as the third-quarter earnings season gains momentum.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 13 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline.

The major averages all closed in the green during Monday’s main trading session. Although Treasury yields climbed higher — which typically puts downward pressure on equities — stocks posted gains as investors became optimistic about corporate earnings. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.7% on Monday. Nonetheless, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is still more than 10 basis points lower than its 16-year highs from earlier in the month. Small caps also rallied Monday, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.6%.

A total of 53 companies in the S&P 500, or about 11% of the index, are scheduled to report results this week. Five names in the Dow will also be releasing their results. Key reports on Tuesday morning include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Lockheed Martin.

“If the economy is going to re-accelerate, which it is doing, and if profits growth is going to re-accelerate, which it is doing, then small caps should lead the way. That’s what history says,” Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “And so I think there’s a little element of rationality, returning to the equity market, and this market is starting to broaden out a little bit.”

Several financial names kicked off earnings season to a strong start, including Charles Schwab on Monday and JPMorgan Chase on Friday. This has helped improve market sentiment amid concerns surrounding the Israel-Hamas war. The conflict in the Middle East has sparked concerns that tensions in the region may escalate to some of the biggest oil producers, notably Iran. 

The grim geopolitical and inflation worries have raised market negativity, “but they are also the wall of worry that ascending stock prices scale,” said George Ball, chairman at Sanders Morris Harris. 

In addition to Tuesday’s earnings reports, Wall Street will also be keeping an eye out for fresh economic data. Retail sales and industrial production data for September will be released before the bell. October’s housing market index and business leaders survey numbers are also scheduled to be announced Tuesday morning.

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street look towards busy earnings week: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

In Middle East war news, the world is rapidly polarising into two camps.

 

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince snubs Joe Biden’s top diplomat

October 16, 2023

The United States’ top diplomat was kept waiting for hours by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler as Washington’s attempts at shuttle diplomacy repeatedly stumbled.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to appear for a meeting with Tony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on Saturday night, only showing up the next morning.

It came as Mr Blinken’s attempt to negotiate a humanitarian corridor between Egypt and Gaza stalled, delaying the evacuation of US citizens and other foreigners stranded amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Joe Biden’s diplomat is on a whirlwind tour of the Middle East to convince Arab partners to assist with humanitarian efforts and avoid a wider regional war.

He was due to meet the Crown Prince on Saturday evening, but the Saudi ruler did not show up until the following morning, the Washington Post reported.

When he finally appeared, the Crown Prince called for a halt in the “current escalation” in the conflict, a stance that runs contrary to Washington, which has stopped short of calling for a ceasefire and backed Israel’s right to defend itself.

‘Decline of US influence’

Analysts have suggested the Saudi ruler’s snub to Mr Blinken points to the decline of US influence in the region as Washington walks a tight-rope of supporting Israel while also averting a high civilian toll that could inflame regional tensions.

Mr Blinken has so far toured six Arab nations to rally support against Hamas.

US officials said he heard wide opposition to the militant group but acknowledged he also understood the need to address the plight of Palestinians in Gaza.

Mr Blinken also faced resistance in his meeting with Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who denounced Hamas’s attack on civilians but blamed Israel for driving Palestinians to desperation.

Meanwhile, Mr Blinken’s attempts to secure a temporary opening of Egypt’s border with Gaza floundered amid contradictory remarks from US and Egyptian officials.

Under the proposal, only Palestinians with a US or other Western passport and certain aid workers would be able to leave Gaza.

International aid would be able to enter the Palestinian territory in return.

Dozens of trucks carrying international aid, including food, water, fuel and medical supplies, have lined up on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing.

Hundreds of civilians, including US and other foreign nationals, gathered on the other side after the US Embassy in Israel encouraged its citizens to head to the border in anticipation of its opening.

However, the agreement has been held up by concerns in Cairo that Israel will not commit to pausing air strikes, Egyptian officials said.

‘Doom the Palestinian dream’

Cairo has also made clear it is unwilling to host a large number of refugees from Gaza, which is home to more than two million Palestinians, warning that doing so could doom the Palestinian dream of statehood.

“Egypt has put in place a lot of material support for people in Gaza, and Rafah will be opened,” Mr Blinken said during his meeting with Mr Sisi on Sunday.

During the meeting at the presidential palace in Cairo, Mr Sisi said Israel’s assaults have exceeded “the right of self-defence”, and turned into “collective punishment”.

The Egyptian leader also appeared to rebuke Mr Blinken’s recent remarks in Israel, in which he said he was speaking not just as a US diplomat, but “as a Jew” who understands “on a personal level the harrowing echoes Hamas’s massacres carry”.

Mr Sisi told him: “Jews who used to live here in Egypt never suffered from oppression and persecution.”

More

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince snubs Joe Biden’s top diplomat (msn.com)

China and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions

October 16, 2023

 

China and Russia have hardened their positions towards the conflict in Gaza in recent days, as the war between Israel and Hamas aggravates existing geopolitical tensions and underscores the growing gulf between the cold war allies and western powers such as the US, UK and France.

The Chinese foreign minister said over the weekend that Israel’s bombing campaign had gone “beyond the scope of self-defence” and that it “should stop collective punishment of the people of Gaza”.

On Friday, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, raised the possibility that an intensified siege of Gaza by Israel may resemble that of Leningrad by German armies during the second world war, a reference likely to cause deep offence in Israel.

Russia’s top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, arrived in Beijing on Monday before an expected visit by Putin, which will raise western concerns about increasingly close links between the two powers.

China has historically backed the Palestinian cause for decades, as did the USSR throughout the cold war. More recently, both powers have sought to balance closer ties with Israel with their broader diplomatic efforts to win allies in the Arab world and more broadly.

Russia is seeking support for its continuing war in Ukraine while China is looking to build a broader coalition of developing countries to extend Beijing’s influence and reinforce its efforts to compete with the US on the global stage.

“Beijing has been pro-Palestinian since Mao’s days and is mindful about the US’s close ties with Israel … [now] almost anything that the US supports, China must be against. Beijing also wishes to be seen as a key supporter to the global south, which includes most Arab countries retaining friendly ties with China. It’s a matter of maintaining those relations by continuing to support the Palestinians​,” said Dr Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at the Chatham House thinktank in London.

Analysts have suggested China is looking to offset concern in the Islamic and Arab worlds about Beijing’s treatment of the Muslim ethnic Uyghurs in the north-western Chinese region of Xinjiang.

The Middle East supplies much of China’s oil needs and is a nexus in the belt and road initiative, President Xi Jinping’s ambitious infrastructure project to connect markets around the world and so extend Beijing’s influence.

Since the war began, Chinese state media have been critical of Israel and blamed the US, Israel’s strongest supporter, for fanning tensions in the region. There has also been an increase in antisemitic content on the heavily policed Chinese internet, according to Yaqiu Wang, the research director for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at the US-based not-for-profit organisation Freedom House.

Putin said on Friday that Israel had been subjected to “an attack unprecedented in its cruelty” by Hamas militants and had the right to defend itself but was responding with cruel methods of its own. “The civilian casualties [likely in the event of an Israeli ground offensive] will be absolutely unacceptable. Now the main thing is to stop the bloodshed,” he said.

More

China and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions (msn.com)

How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China

Moscow and Beijing seek to ride the wave of solidarity with Palestinians while taking advantage of American distraction

October 16, 2023

DUBAI—The war between Israel and Hamas isn’t just risking a regional conflagration. It is also affecting the global balance of power, stretching American and European resources while relieving pressure on Russia and providing new opportunities to China.

The long-term effect of the Middle East flare-up is hard to predict. It depends, first of all, on whether Israel is ultimately successful in its stated goal of eliminating Hamas as Gaza’s main military and political force. Another critical issue is whether Israel’s diplomatic relationships in the region and the global standing of its Western supporters can survive the rising civilian casualties in Gaza and the looming horrors of urban warfare in the densely populated enclave.

But, for now, the war launched by Hamas on Oct. 7 with a brutal attack on Israeli towns and villages that killed some 1,400 people, mostly civilians, is proving a boon for America’s main geopolitical rivals. China, Russia and Iran have long sought to undermine the U.S.-backed international system and are now taking advantage of America’s distraction.

“What we are seeing is part of a shifting and moving world order,” said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is currently running for Finland’s presidency. “When the U.S. leaves power vacuums, someone is going to fill those vacuums.”

----Still, as Washington’s attention focuses on the Middle East, Russia is probably the clearest beneficiary of the spreading upheaval. Pointing at the mounting Palestinian deaths—around 2,750 by the latest count—Moscow revels in what it calls the hypocrisy of the Western governments, which have roundly condemned Russian massacres of civilians in Ukraine but offer only mild, if any, criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza.

More

How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China - WSJ

Malaysia pulls out of Frankfurt Book Fair citing organisers' pro-Israel stance

October 17, 20234:14 AM GMT+1

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Malaysia's education ministry has withdrawn from participating in this year's Frankfurt Book Fair, accusing the organisers of taking a pro-Israel stance, amid growing global divisions over the ongoing conflict between Israeli and Palestinian forces.

The move by Malaysia to pull out of what is considered the world's largest trade fair for books came after literary association Litprom said it would postpone an award ceremony for a novel by a Palestinian author at the event following the deadly Oct. 7 attack by militant group Hamas in Israel.

The fair's organiser also said on Facebook it would be making Jewish and Israeli voices "especially visible" at this year's edition.

"The ministry will not compromise with Israel’s violence in Palestine, which clearly violates international laws and human rights," Malaysia's education ministry said in a statement late on Monday.

"The decision (to withdraw) is in line with the government’s stand to be in solidarity and offer full support for Palestine."

Muslim-majority Malaysia has long supported the Palestinian cause, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim saying this week that he did not agree with Western pressure to condemn Hamas.

 

Anwar on Tuesday called for an immediate end to bombardment in Gaza and the establishment of a humanitarian corridor, following a phone conversation with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Malaysia pulls out of Frankfurt Book Fair citing organisers' pro-Israel stance | Reuters

Finally, in China news, it is deadline day for Country Garden.

 

Country Garden draws closer to debt deadline, as default risk looms

All of Country Garden’s offshore debt could potentially be in default if the Chinese property developer fails to make a $15 million coupon payment on Tuesday, which marks the end of a 30-day grace period.

The embattled real estate giant warned last week it may not be able to make all its offshore repayments, including those issued in U.S. dollar notes.

Once China’s largest real estate developer, Country Garden narrowly avoided default in early September after it managed to pay $22.5 million in bond coupon payments. Its creditors voted to extend repayments on six onshore bonds by three years.

The founding family of Country Garden reportedly provided the company with an interest-free loan of $300 million, Reuters reported Friday, saying the family was trying to sell another jet to raise money.

If the Country Garden fails to make the repayment on Tuesday, it would become the latest casualty among many large Chinese real estate developers that have defaulted on their debt.

Chinese property giants including Evergrande and Country Garden have been hit by debt problems, hurting consumer confidence in the sector.

Shares of Country Garden rose 1.37% in early trade, tracking a 0.86% rise in the broader Hang Seng Index

Country Garden draws closer to debt deadline, as default risk looms (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.   

As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing?

By Yoruk BahceliDhara Ranasinghe and Maria Martinez

LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Record debts, high interest rates, the costs of climate change, health and pension spending as populations age and fractious politics are stoking fears of a financial market crisis in big developed economies.

surge in government borrowing costs has put high debt in the spotlight, with investors demanding increased compensation to hold long-term bonds and policymakers urging caution on public finances.

 

Over 80% of the $10 trillion rise in global debt in the first half to a record $307 trillion came from developed economies, the Institute of International Finance says.

 

The United States, where brinkmanship around a debt limit brought it close to a default, Italy and Britain are of most concern, more than 20 prominent economists, former policymakers and big investors told Reuters.

They do not expect a developed economy to struggle paying debt, but say governments must deliver credible fiscal plans, raise taxes and boost growth to keep finances manageable. Heightened geopolitical tensions add to costs.

A fragile environment with higher rates and shrinking central bank support raises the risk of a policy misstep sparking a market rout, as shown by Britain's 2022 "mini budget" crisis.

 

Peter Praet, former chief economist at the European Central Bank, said that while debt still appears sustainable, the outlook is worrying given longer-term spending needs.

"You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis," said Praet, who joined the ECB during 2011's debt crisis.

"If you have an accident, or a combination of events, then you go into an adverse non-linear dynamic sort of process. That is something which is a real possibility."

More

As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

 

Why does COVID-19 usually hit adults so much harder than kids? The nose knows.

October 16, 2023

 

It has been clear since early in the coronavirus pandemic that children ‒ typically magnets for colds and the flu ‒ weren't getting very sick from COVID-19. Now, a study suggests the answer lies in their noses.

The study from researchers at Stanford University and Cincinnati Children's Hospital found the immune systems of younger children typically wipe out the SARS-CoV-2 virus when it arrives in the nose.

In adults, by contrast, the virus that causes COVID-19 generally reaches the bloodstream before the immune system begins to fight back. That allows the virus to cause more havoc in adults.

The findings suggest there may be a way to provide protection for adults by mimicking what is naturally found in children.

More than 90% of children age 4 and younger in the U.S. have been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But children under 5, who represent about 6% of the U.S. population, account for far less than 1% of COVID-19 deaths in the country.

The discovery came during a collaboration between an Ohio pediatric hospital and a research lab in Northern California. Early in the pandemic, researchers at Stanford University asked their collaborators at Cincinnati Children's to send them samples from children who were severely ill with COVID-19. But they couldn't find any.

Curious, the teams decided to explore why children seemed far less affected by the virus than adults.

The study, co-funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, involved 81 infants and children whose mothers had enrolled during their third trimester of pregnancy. Parents collected weekly nasal swabs from their babies starting at 2 weeks old, and blood was drawn regularly beginning at 6 weeks and if the children became infected with the virus.

Fifty-four of the children were infected and had mild COVID-19 during the study period, while the remaining 27 tested negative throughout.

Thirty-eight mothers, half of whom contracted COVID-19, also provided weekly nasal swabs, and 89 adults with COVID-19 and 13 health controls provided blood samples.

The study found that when an adult is infected with COVID-19, their immune system quickly produces a burst of antibodies for the virus. The presence of these antibodies then drops off, falling tenfold within six months, the study found.

In infants and younger children, however, it takes longer to produce that spike, but then their antibody levels don't decrease. Over the 300-day observation period, children's antibody levels either remained high or kept climbing, eventually reaching the same level as adults during the spike.

The range of antibodies they produced was also a bit narrower than adults did, the researchers noted. Their antibodies specifically targeted the original variant but were less protective against others.

Infected adults also had high levels of proteins called inflammatory cytokines in their blood, which can sometimes cause dangerous overreactions to the virus, leading to severe disease and even death. In contrast, the children and babies had high levels of inflammatory cytokines in their noses, along with an antiviral, but not in their blood.

Stimulating high levels of cytokines in the noses of adults, perhaps with a nasal vaccine, might provide the same level of protection as children naturally have, the researchers said.

More

Why does COVID-19 usually hit adults so much harder than kids? The nose knows. (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

A Tesla owner says his 'heart missed a beat' when he received a $20,000 bill after the battery was damaged by rain

Mon, 16 October 2023 at 11:14 am BST

Tesla owner said he was "flabbergasted" when he and his partner were hit with a hefty bill to fix their electric vehicle.

Johnny Bacigalupo and Rob Hussey told Scottish news outlet Edinburgh Live they were given a £17,374, or $20,698, bill to fix their Tesla after its battery was damaged by rain last week.

"I honestly can't believe that this has happened. When I first got the call I thought we would get a bill for £500 or £1,000," Bacigalupo told Edinburgh Live. "When they said over 17 grand – it's absolutely obscene. My heart missed a beat, honestly."

Elon Musk said in 2019 that it could cost between $5,000 and $10,000 to replace a Tesla battery, J.D. Power reported, noting that the figures are different in 2023. Recurrent, which reports on EV battery health, said battery replacement could cost anywhere from $5,000 to $20,000.

After being unable to start their vehicle and arranging to have it delivered to Tesla Edinburgh by a collection firm, Bacigalupo and Hussey received a call on Wednesday informing them that the battery was "damaged due to water ingress."

The 8-year warranty didn't cover this, and they were asked if they wanted to proceed with a repair costing $20,698.

"Did I wish to proceed?? I was flabbergasted and couldn't really find my words," Bacigalupo said, who told the Tesla representative that the couple wasn't at fault.

The outlet said it verified the bill via correspondence between Tesla and the couple and that it had seen an email from Tesla customer relations, which says it's investigating the complaint.

A similar incident occurred last year when a Canadian Tesla owner was told it would cost $26,000 to get a replacement battery for his vehicle, Fox Business reported

The owner, Mario Zelaya, shared his experience in a TikTok video and said he was locked out of his Tesla Model S after the battery died. Zelaya said he eventually sold his Tesla after he spent $30 getting replacement ownership papers, which were locked in the vehicle.

EV batteries can deteriorate at various rates depending on numerous factors, including how they were charged and the environment in which the vehicle was driven.

Tesla Europe didn't immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

A Tesla owner says his 'heart missed a beat' when he received a $20,000 bill after the battery was damaged by rain (yahoo.com)

We sit in calm, airy, silent rooms opening upon sunlit and embowered lawns, not a sound except of summer and of husbandry disturbs the peace; but seven million men, any ten thousand of whom could have annihilated the ancient armies, are in ceaseless battle from the Alps to the Ocean.

Winston Churchill.

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