Baltic Dry Index. 1737 +36 Brent Crude 89.74
Spot Gold 1820 US 2 Year Yield 5.12 +0.08
It is extraordinary how many emotional storms one may weather in safety if one is ballasted with ever so little gold.
William McFee.
In the stock casinos, very little relief rally from no US government shutdown before November 14th.
Other worries, led by higher for longer interest rate fears now dominate.
What if higher for longer triggers US banking crisis 2.0 and generates a US commercial real estate crisis to rival China’s never ending property crisis?
Meanwhile, are gold, oil and US bonds now signalling
cash is extremely tight in the USA and Europe. If so, stocks in "crash month" October are headed
for a fall.
European markets
head for flat to lower open as data weighs on sentiment
UPDATED TUE, OCT 3 2023 12:37 AM
EDT
European markets
are heading for a flat to lower open as investors digest gloomy economic data
from the region.
European stock
markets closed lower Monday as data revealed an outgoing downturn in
manufacturing output, as new orders fell by a near-record level.
In Asia-Pacific
markets overnight, Hong Kong stocks fell about 3%, leading
wider losses in the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded
3.12% lower after coming back from a National Day holiday on Monday.
U.S. stock futures were little
changed on Monday night, with U.S. markets kicking off October trading after
lawmakers in Washington arrived at a short-term
agreement over the weekend that staved off a government
shutdown
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Hong Kong shares drop 3%, dragged down by real
estate and energy
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped
more than 3% Tuesday, dragged by its real estate and energy sectors.
The benchmark index’s loss of over
500 points is a significant decline, Everbright Securities’ Kenny Ng told CNBC
via e-mail.
“On one hand, this was driven by profit-taking following a 400-point rise
last Friday,” the securities strategist explained. “Additionally, the US dollar index has
remained relatively strong, exerting downward pressure on the Hong Kong stock
market.”
The index was last
trading down 3.16% after coming back from a holiday on Monday.
Ng highlighted how
property stocks were among the largest decliners Tuesday, given the
high-interest environment.
Hong Kong listed property stocks were firmly in
the red. Country Garden Holdings plunged
7.67%, leading losses in the sector, while Longfor Group
Holdings lost
4.82%. New World
Development shed
6.69%, and Henderson Land Development traded 6.15% lower.
“Coupled with the relatively
sluggish mainland Chinese real estate market, it is expected that this sector
will continue to face downward pressure in the short term,” Ng added.
China’s property market has struggled with faltering consumer confidence,
as property giants Evergrande and
Country Garden were mired in debt problems.
Separately, beleaguered Chinese
property giant Evergrande resumed trading in Hong Kong. Shares have been
volatile since resuming trade in late August following a 17-month suspension.
The stock rose 22% in early trade. The firm’s EV unit also halted trading Tuesday.
Hong
Kong stocks fall, dragged down by real estate and energy (cnbc.com)
Your Evening Briefing: More Rate Hikes Needed, Fed Governor
Says
October 2, 2023
As cooler air descends across some parts of the US, so too
has a chill arrived on Wall Street to dispel warm feelings of inflation’s
defeat and a possible soft landing. A rout in Treasuries intensified and US
stocks lost ground Monday after Federal Reserve officials alluded to the need
for the central bank to leave borrowing costs high. Vice Chair for Supervision
Michael Barr said that the biggest question was how long to leave interest
rates elevated. But Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated her call for
multiple additional rate hikes. Here’s your markets wrap.
Here are today’s top stories
Office
prices in the US are due for a
crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months
of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. About two-thirds of the 919
respondents surveyed said they believe the US office market will only rebound
after a severe collapse.
Tesla shipped 435,059 cars globally in the third quarter as factory
downtime led to its first delivery decline in more than a year. The results, posted
Monday, missed expectations. Several Wall Street analysts had slashed their
delivery estimates in recent days, and the consensus compiled by Bloomberg fell
to 456,722 on Friday. Tesla delivered 466,140 cars in the second quarter.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: More Rate Hikes Needed, Fed Governor Says - Bloomberg
Economists wary of economic impact as student loan
payments resume
Oct. 1 (UPI) -- More than 40 million U.S. student loan borrowers faced
requirements to resume making their payments starting Sunday as a pause for
the COVID-19 pandemic expired, sparking concerns the
economy could suffer.
The U.S.
Department of Education's COVID-19 relief for student loans ended this year,
nearly three years after former President Donald Trump first
authorized forbearance on
loan payments due to the pandemic.
Interest
on the loans resumed on Sept. 1, while payments came due beginning Sunday.
The White House last month touted the cancellation of more than
$116 billion in student loan debt for 3.4 million borrowers, but its ambitious
plans to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for Pell Grant recipients and up
to $10,000 for many individual borrowers were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in June.
Meanwhile,
the 43 million current student borrowers still have more than $1.6 trillion
outstanding on their loans, according to education department data, prompting widespread concerns that a return to
strict payments will trigger personal finance difficulties that could spill
over into the broader economy.
Research
by the nonpartisan Education Data Initiative shows that since 2006, the total national student
loan debt balance has increased by 116%, or at an annual rate of 8%, while
soaring 399% since 2000.
The group
also cites other data indicating that when the student debt load goes up,
consumer spending decreases and business growth suffers. For instance, 18% of
student loan holders say they find it difficult to buy daily necessities
because of their debts, while those with outstanding loan payments are 36% less
likely to purchase a house.
An
economics expert at Temple University in Philadelphia said Tuesday that student
loans have a significant impact on the overall health of the economy.
"Having
to pay back student debt interferes with sometimes the ability to just buy a
house, so they don't qualify for it, or certainly constrains the value of the
house they can buy," economics professor Donald Wargo said in a
release. "And we're finding
that to be a serious problem for millennials right now."
During the past three years of forbearance, many borrowers
have been able to distribute their payment money elsewhere into the economy,
but that situation will now likely change, said Tom Aliff, a risk advisor for
the credit firm Equifax.
More
Economists wary of economic impact as student loan
payments resume - UPI.com
Gold extends fall as
strong dollar, higher US rates take toll
By Ashitha
Shivaprasad October 2,
20237:16 PM GMT+1
Oct 2 (Reuters) - Gold extended its
decline for a sixth straight session on Monday to hit a near seven-month
trough, as a robust dollar and prospects of higher U.S. interest rates took the
shine off bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.9% by 1:52 p.m.
EDT (1752 GMT) at $1,831.70 per ounce, its lowest level since early March. U.S.
gold futures settled 1% lower at $1,847.20.
"There
is a reckoning that interest rates are going to be higher for much longer,
which has been the bearish element in the precious market. Gold prices could go
below $1,800 in the near term," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco
Metals.
"Trends in the currency markets
tend to be stronger and longer-lasting. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar may
not end anytime soon, pressuring the gold market."
The U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose
0.6%, making bullion less attractive to other currency holders.
Traders are pricing in a 55% chance
that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current range of
5.25%-5.50% this year, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Federal Governor Michelle Bowman said
she remains willing to support another increase in rates if incoming data shows
progress on inflation is stalling or proceeding too slowly. Fed Vice Chair for
Supervision Michael Barr, however, said rates are "at or near"
sufficiently restrictive level.
Since powering above the key
$2,000-per-ounce level in early May, gold prices have fallen more than 11%, or
$230, pressured by a sharp rise in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, which makes
the non-yielding gold less attractive.
"The buying on dips (in gold) by
central banks is now conspicuously absent," said Tai Wong, a New
York-based independent metals trader.
The market focus now shifts to job
openings data, private hiring numbers and U.S. nonfarm payrolls over the course
of the week.
Spot silver slid 4.2% to a more than
six-month low of $21.23 per ounce.
Platinum fell 2.8% to $879.42 and
palladium dipped 3.1% to $1,207.51.
Gold
extends fall as strong dollar, higher US rates take toll | Reuters
Finally, grain prices up or down from here? This is what
makes commodities trading so interesting. “Honest” markets not driven by, nor
bailed out by dodgy central banksters inflating money supplies to boost the
stock casinos.
Veteran investor David Roche has a contrarian call on grain prices, says
prices will soar
PUBLISHED
MON, OCT 2 2023 5:34 AM EDT
Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a
resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist
David Roche disagrees.
Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at
Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the
next two years.
“The logic is simple. Further disruptions by Russia and of Russia’s own
important grain supplies are a major risk, we have climate warming as a
generality which we can see is cutting the water levels in crucial arteries
like the Mississippi, which carries 60% of U.S. grain to ports where it can be
shipped abroad, so we can have all sorts of disruptions we haven’t imagined
from climate change,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“And then on top of that we’ve got El
Nino, where the evidence of crops being affected is now
starting to become very clear.”
His comments come as wheat prices remain down around 29%
year-to-date and at their lowest levels since September 2020, with short
positions — bets that prices will fall — recently hitting a three-month high,
according to a report from Independent Strategy. Corn prices are also trading
around three-year lows while soybeans recently notched a four-year low.
The price falls were heightened by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture reporting higher production and stockpiles than analysts had
expected. The data compounded downward price pressures coming from signs that
Ukraine, a key grain producer, is managing to find alternative export routes
despite Russian attacks on its ports.
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said Sunday that five more ships
were en route to Ukrainian sea ports via a new corridor opened primarily for
agricultural exports, an alternative to the Black
Sea grain deal blocked by Russia in July.
Meanwhile Russia, the world’s largest grain exporter, has also
produced large harvests which analysts expect to get through export blockades.
However, Roche says there are additional factors that could push prices
higher.
For example, a critical stretch of the lower Mississippi River fell last
week to within inches of its lowest-ever level, according to the U.S. National
Weather Services, and is expected to remain low as the country prepares for its
busiest season for grain exports.
This, along with Russian volatility and El Nino, are “three factors
which I think will disrupt the supply side” of grain markets, Roche said.
More
David Roche sees grain prices rising, contrary to
market consensus (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Stagflation is ‘the big bogeyman out there’
— and many increasingly fear its return
PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 29 2023 7:33
AM EDT UPDATED FRI, SEP 29 2023 9:59 AM EDT
Just a few months ago, investors appeared relatively sanguine about
the dreaded prospect of stagnant economic activity and rising inflation.
Oil prices surging
to the brink of $100 per barrel and the specter of higher-for-longer
inflation have renewed concern about stagflation risks, however.
“I think that the big bogeyman out there is stagflation, that we get into
this spirit of high inflation and low growth,” Mel Lagomasino, CEO of WE Family
Offices, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box”
on Wednesday.
Lagomasino cited comments from Minneapolis
Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said in an essay earlier this week that U.S. interest
rates may have to go “meaningfully higher” to bring down stubbornly sticky
inflation.
Kashkari reaffirmed
this message when speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, saying that he was
not sure if interest rates have been raised enough to successfully fight price growth.
“It looks like they might not just be higher for longer, they might be quite
a bit higher for longer,” Lagomasino said, before adding that she believes a
recession is “definitely” on the horizon.
Stagflation was first recognized in
the 1970s, when an oil shock prompted an extended period of higher prices but
sharply falling economic growth.
The phenomenon is characterized by slow growth, high unemployment and
soaring inflation. The one ingredient currently missing is the high
unemployment, still
relatively low at 3.8% — although there are fears
that mounting layoffs may mean this could soon change.
Market participants are worried that surging oil prices could keep inflation
higher for longer, amplifying the risk of stagflation.
Brent crude futures
have jumped more than $20 a barrel in the three months to late September, a
rally that has put
a return to $100 sharply into focus. The international benchmark was last
seen trading at $96.12 on Friday, up 0.8% for the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures,
meanwhile, rose 1.4% to trade at $92.96.
The price rally comes amid growing expectations of tighter supply, after
Saudi Arabia, leader of OPEC, and non-OPEC heavyweight Russia moved to draw
down global inventories and extend some of their voluntary oil supply cuts
through to the end of the year. Together, OPEC and non-OPEC producers are known
as OPEC+.
“By early summer, investors looked increasingly confident that the global
economy was escaping the plague of stagflation,” analysts at Generali
Investments said in a research note published Thursday.
“They are having a second thought – rightly so.”
A real worry’
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts at Generali Investments said
the oil price surge was “most unwelcome” because this would likely keep
headline U.S. inflation higher and hurt economic growth.
“The price pressure reflects a shortage of supply, after OPEC+ cut
production targets, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This must
be seen in the context of a moving geopolitical environment, with Saudi Arabia
recently joining the BRICS group,” they added.
More
Stagflation: Surging oil prices fuel fears of dreaded phenomenon (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Because of its importance and to expose UK politicians absolute contempt of the voters, I will leave this link up all week.
The Great British Parliament Scandal. MPs gross contempt of the voters over excess deaths. Approx.14 minutes.
Excess
deaths debate in parliament
Excess
deaths debate in parliament - YouTube
An Ongoing Threat:
The Dangers of modRNA Vaccines and Boosters
The
truth behind RNA-based vaccine technology (Part 2)
9/26/2023 Updated: 9/27/2023
The next
COVID-19 vaccine campaign is ramping up. Americans are being encouraged to be
up to date on injections just in time for another round of booster shots.
Meanwhile, BioNTech, an official
collaborator of Pfizer, admits that its messenger
RNA (mRNA) vaccines are made with modified RNA (modRNA), and Moderna just
announced that its updated vaccines will be shipped across the country.
modRNA
vaccines and boosters—more aptly called RNA-based injections—can
seriously threaten the health of
anyone who receives them. These injections cause harm in five significant ways.
1.
Lipid Nanoparticles (LNPs) Can Smuggle modRNA Into Any Cell
In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic,
lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) were hailed as tiny superheroes that would deliver
mRNA molecules coding for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 into our cells.
However, they are more like Trojan horses that sneak past biological barriers
and smuggle modRNA into our
cells.
LNPs are made of lipids (fats) arranged to
form a sphere. LNPs hide the modRNA from our body’s immune system until the
modRNA can enter our cells when the lipid sphere merges with our cells’ lipid
walls. The substances that make up LNPs are phospholipids, cholesterol,
PEGylated lipids, and cationic lipids. The most problematic of these are
cationic lipids, which are possibly cytotoxic. A 2022 editorial raised massive
concerns that the cationic lipids in the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19
vaccines cause acute inflammatory responses.
Due to their small size (less than 100
nanometers), LNPs can easily overcome biological barriers and theoretically
reach every cell of our body—including cells in our brain and heart.
What has
been advertised as an innocent means of delivering medicine to our cells is
dangerous and can have long-term consequences.
More
An Ongoing Threat: The Dangers of modRNA Vaccines and Boosters | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Falling solar
power costs give hope for power-deprived Bangladesh
October 2, 2023
DHAKA – Falling solar power prices can help ease an energy crunch in Bangladesh,
where an over-dependence on fossil fuels has drained foreign-exchange reserves
and jeopardised electricity supplies, BloombergNEF (BNEE) said in a report.
Solar on its own is set to become the cheapest source of power in the
South Asian nation by 2025, thanks to declining technology prices, BNEF said in
the report published on Monday. By the end of the decade, solar plus batteries,
which will be crucial to displace fossil fuels, will be cheaper than new coal
or gas power plants, it said.
That could help Bangladesh, where 97 per cent of electricity is
generated from fossil fuels, to decarbonise. But instead, the nation is still
planning more coal- and gas-fired generation and is counting on more of the
relatively cleaner gas to help reduce emissions.
The South Asian nation is heavily reliant on gas, which accounts
for around half of its electricity mix. Gas-fired power production was
historically supported by the nation’s domestic reserves, but these are now
depleting making it dependent on imports.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted the
dangers of a reliance on overseas gas as prices skyrocketed, leading to rolling
blackouts in Bangladesh and the shutdown of a major thermal power plant. The
impact of Covid-19 and the country’s rising energy import bill also drained
foreign-currency reserves, increasing the urgency to diversify the energy
portfolio.
“By limiting thermal power plant additions and deploying more
renewables, Bangladesh can bring down energy costs and emissions while
improving the country’s energy security,” said BNEF analyst Isshu Kikuma.
“Investing in renewables can create more opportunities and support the
country’s economic growth.”
To limit emissions, the
country is exploring co-firing coal power plants with ammonia and blending
hydrogen with natural gas. Both these technologies will burden the economy,
according to BNEF, while solar is becoming a truly affordable and climate
friendly option.
Falling solar power costs give hope for power-deprived
Bangladesh | The Straits Times
You have to
choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the
natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the
Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as
the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.
George Bernard Shaw, Socialist.
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