Baltic Dry Index. 2017 -29 Brent Crude 90.27
Spot
Gold 1976 US 2 Year Yield
5.05 -0.02
In July 1914 no one wanted World War One, no one thought WW1 was even possible. But Kaiser Bill’s blank cheque to Austria set in motion Austria’s attack on Serbia, which caused Russia to mobilise in Serbia’s defence, which in turn caused Germany to mobilise against Russia. France, Russia’s ally, then mobilised in defence of Russia.
Four and a bit years later and 50 to 60 million deaths later, the war no one wanted or thought possible, came to its exhausted end, 21 years later to repeat.
We seem to want a repeat of July 1914 in October 2023.
The good news is though, WW3 won’t last four and a bit years. We can now kill 50 to 60 million in the opening minutes of WW3, though no one in Washington, London or NATO Brussels, or Tel Aviv, or Tehran, seems to have been told.
In fact, if we really want to fire thousands of nuclear warheads across the northern hemisphere, we can move the kill rate into the hundreds of millions, if not into the low billions, it’s called progress I think.
Yesterday, Biden’s spokesman put Iran in the bombsights. Israel and Gaza continued polarising the world into two very different camps. The USA told its citizens to be vary of travelling to more than 200 hundred countries. (Are there more than 200 countries?)
Like it or not, we are sleep walking into the
big one. If 1914's any guide, the kick off should start sometime next month.
Asia markets
mostly fall as key data comes out from Japan, Australia and South Korea
UPDATED MON, OCT 23 2023 11:20 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell as investors assess private
surveys of business activity from Japan and Australia, as well as the October
producer price index from South Korea.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained
marginally, recovering from three straight days of losses.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped
1.17% and reversed earlier gains, and the Topix fell 1.53% as its October
purchasing managers index flash reading saw
its first contraction since December 2022.
South Korea’s Kospi tumbled
1.03% and the Topix was down 1.09%, also reversing earlier gains.
This comes after the country’s producer
price index climbed
at a faster pace of 1.3% year-on-year in September, compared to
1% in August.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index comes
back from a holiday 1.38% lower, while mainland Chinese markets continued to slide,
with the CSI 300 index 0.23% down and hitting its lowest level since February
2019.
Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite snapped
four days of losses as Treasury yields retreated from their highs and traders
looked ahead to the release of corporate earnings from tech industry giants.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury
note yield briefly climbed back above the key 5% level before ticking down. It
was last trading at about 4.85%.
The tech-heavy index added
0.27%, but the Dow
Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.58%, and the S&P 500 fell
0.17%.
Japan business
activity posts first contraction since December 2022
Japan’s business
activity contracted in October, the first time since December 2022, according
to flash estimates by the au Jibun bank.
The country’s composite purchasing managers index came
in at 49.9, compared with 52.1 in September.
The drop was mainly
due to a sharper fall in manufacturing activity, with the manufacturing PMI
showing a faster rate of contraction at 47.6 against September’s 48.7.
The bank noted that
services activity remained in expansion, but grew at the weakest pace
year-to-date “amid reports of worsening economic conditions in October.”
Services PMI stood at 51.1, compared with September’s 53.8.
Asia
stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European markets head for
lower open ahead of euro zone economic data
UPDATED TUE, OCT 24 2023 12:40 AM EDT
European markets are heading for
a negative open on Tuesday, with investors likely keeping an eye on the latest
business activity data out of the euro zone.
Preliminary purchasing manager’s
index data for the euro zone for October is due Tuesday with market
participants waiting to see how the manufacturing and services sectors are
performing.
It’s a busy week for earnings:
Barclays, Hermes, Michelin, Heineken, Spotify, Novartis and Norges Bank
Investment Management are reporting on Tuesday.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says
‘too much risk in the world’ to bet against bonds
Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman revealed Monday he
covered his bet against long-term Treasurys, believing that investors may
increasingly buy bonds as a safe haven because of growing geopolitical risks,
the latest of which being the
Israel-Hamas war.
“There is too much risk in the
world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates,” Ackman said in a post
on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Monday morning. “We covered our bond
short.”
The billionaire hedge fund manager first
disclosed his bearish position on 30-year Treasurys in August,
betting on elevated yields on the back of “higher levels of long-term
inflation.” The 30-year Treasury yield has risen more than 80 basis points
since the end of August, making Ackman’s bet profitable.
Bond prices move inversely to
yields, so Ackman’s bet against bonds was, in effect, a gamble on higher rates.
The 30-year Treasury yield fell 6
basis points to 5.01% on Monday after Ackman’s comments.
---- Ackman also added that he removed the
short because of concern about the economy.
“The economy is
slowing faster than recent data suggests,” he wrote.
The Fed has raised
rates 11 times for a total of 5.25 percentage points, taking the benchmark rate
to its highest level in some 22 years. A slowing economy typically leads to
lower bond yields.
---- JPMorgan
Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently issued a stern warning about the
perils the world faces from multiple threats, saying this may be “the most dangerous time the world
has seen in decades.”
In other news, the new Middle East war is
starting to kill international travel for westerners. The wider war looms. A global recession comes next.
US Government Is
Warning Americans Not to Travel to These Places Right Now
The
State Department issues travel advisory levels for over 200 countries.
October
23, 2023
After the
outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas that has increased tensions across the
Middle East, the U.S. State Department has issued a worldwide caution alert for
Americans traveling abroad.
The alert was issued because of “increased tensions in various locations around the
world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions
against U.S. citizens and interests.” Before that update, the most recent
worldwide caution advisory was sent out in 2022 after a U.S. strike killed
al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.
The State Department issues travel advisory
levels for more than 200 countries, with advisories ranging from Level 1 to
Level 4. Generally, Level 4 countries have a high risk of unrest, terrorism, or
conflict, which means that people likely shouldn't travel there, whereas Level
1 countries mean that U.S. citizens should exercise normal precautions when
traveling.
Countries With Level 4 Alerts
At least 21 countries around the world have a Level 4 advisory; they
include Haiti, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, Burma (also
known as Myanmar), Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Israel,
among others. A number of African countries also are under the Level 4
advisory.
More
US
Government Is Warning Americans Not to Travel to These Places Right Now | The
Epoch Times
White House says Iran
'actively facilitating' some attacks on US military bases
By Steve Holland
October 23, 20238:20 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The
White House on Monday said Iran was in some cases "actively
facilitating" rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups on
U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, and President Biden has directed the Department
of Defense to brace for more and respond appropriately.
White House spokesman John Kirby said
there had been an uptick in such attacks over the last week, and especially
over the last few days, but the U.S. would not allow its interests in the
region to "go unchallenged."
He said the United States believed
these groups were supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and
the Iranian government, which was also continuing to support the Hamas and
Hezbollah militant groups.
"We know that Iran is closely
monitoring these events, and in some cases, actively facilitating these attacks
and spurring on others who may want to exploit the conflict for their own good,
or for that of Iran," he said.
There has been an increase in attacks
on U.S. forces since the conflict in Israel intensified on Oct. 7 when
militants from the Palestinian group Hamas attacked southern Israel.
"We are deeply concerned about
the potential for any significant escalation of these attacks in the days
ahead," Kirby said.
Biden has sent naval power to the
Middle East in the past two weeks, including two aircraft carriers, other
warships and about 2,000 Marines.
"We
know Iran's goal is to maintain some level of deniability here, but we're not
going to allow them to do that," Kirby said. "We also are not going
to allow any threat to our interests in the region to go unchallenged."
White
House says Iran 'actively facilitating' some attacks on US military bases |
Reuters
Finally, in less dangerous news, more on so
you really, really, really want to own an EV.
The battery test race
to work out what used EVs are really worth
By Nick Carey and Paul Lienert October 23, 2023 7:19 AM GMT+1
LONDON/DETROIT, Oct 23 (Reuters) - A
race is on to certify battery health and performance in used electric vehicles,
with a clutch of startups scrambling to help buyers figure out how much a
secondhand EV is really worth.
With traditional combustion-engine
cars, mileage and years racked up can quickly tell prospective buyers how much
they should fork out. That formula does not work with EVs - whose value depends
largely on their battery's driving range and ability to hold a charge.
Until recently, there was no way to
measure battery health, hampering used EV sales. But that is changing as
companies rush to scale up EV battery tests - some of which take just minutes.
One of them is Altelium, a UK startup
that has a developed an EV battery state-of-health test and certificate
launching this year in more than 7,000 U.S. car dealers and over 5,000 UK
dealers through dealer service providers including Assurant and GardX.
"If the second-hand car market
doesn't work properly, the new car market doesn't work properly and the
electric transition won't happen," said Alex Johns, business development
manager at Altelium, which says it has received interest from other markets
including China. "We're in an implementation race."
A battery typically makes up around 40%
of a new EV's price. How that battery is treated is key. Charging an EV rapidly
too often, constantly charging when the battery is nearly full or leaving it
for long periods fully charged can degrade its battery more quickly.
More
The battery test race to work out what used EVs are really worth | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
No update today.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today and the rest of the week, why the British public hold most Members of Parliament in contemp. Only 16 or 17 MPs bothered to attend the House, mostly Conservative MPs, with the rest of the Commons treating the British public suffering from vaccine damage, with antipathy and disrespect.
Parliamentary
speech on excess deaths
Parliamentary speech on excess deaths - YouTube
Great
public support
Great
public support - YouTube
mRNA COVID Vaccines Form Spike Protein in Heart Cells, but Cause Different Anomalies: Research Article
New
research observing rat and human heart cells shows that within 48 hours of
vaccination, the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines form spike proteins.
10/22/2023 Updated: 10/22/2023
New research out
of Germany observing rat and human heart cells shows that within 48 hours of
vaccination, the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines form spike proteins.
Spike proteins,
made from the mRNA instructions inside the vaccines, were detected in the heart
cells. While both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines caused cell abnormalities, the
two induced different anomalies.
The different
responses the cells had to the two mRNA vaccines suggest an mRNA toxicity
reaction in these cells, according to Dr. Peter McCullough, a leading
internist, cardiologist, and epidemiologist who has published over 1,000 research
reports and is the lead author of one of the first widely utilized treatment
regimens for SARS-CoV-2 patients. He added that 48 hours was a short amount of
time to observe this.
"The findings support both
the diagnosis and treatment of cardiac events following mRNA-based COVID
vaccination," the authors wrote, adding that the findings may explain
persistent cardiac symptoms among long-COVID patients.
The paper is a rapid communication paper,
meaning it is a shorter scientific paper published more quickly than a standard
research article. Scientists tend to use this format
when they have findings that need to be shared immediately with the academic
community.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Mechanical engineering professor
uses coal to create graphene
OCTOBER
18, 2023
Since its initial discovery in 2004 by two
professors at the University of Manchester, graphene has made a big splash in
the scientific community. Its discoverers won a Nobel Prize in 2010 for
developing the idea—then the race was on to find ways to produce and apply it.
Roop Mahajan, the Lewis A. Hester Professor in Mechanical Engineering at
Virginia Tech, has contributed a significant step forward in that race.
Graphene
boasts unparalleled attributes—it's 200 times stronger than steel, yet lighter
than paper, and exhibits unique mechanical properties. At the microscale, it
takes the form of hexagon-shaped lattices of carbon with a thickness of just
one atom.
Because
of its unique properties, graphene has multiple applications:
----Because graphene primarily consists of carbon,
researchers must start with a material naturally high in carbon. Graphite, the
primary component of pencil lead, is the usual choice because its composition
is almost pure carbon.
Because
graphene is a one-atom-thick sheet of material, producing it requires a
significant amount of processing. The most popular technique is a modified
version of an approach known as Hummer's Method and
uses sulfuric
acid, potassium permanganate,
sodium nitrate, and hydrogen peroxide at various stages. Three of those four
chemicals are considered hazardous.
But
Mahajan's group has re-imagined a more sustainable method to source graphene
not from graphite but from coal, dramatically cutting the number of harsh
chemicals to only one: nitric acid. With fewer hazardous chemicals and less disposal to
manage, this approach reduces the environmental impact as well as the risk to
researchers.
Replacing
graphite as the primary source for the material of the future comes with
benefits. Most graphite is sourced from China, making its supply chain somewhat
uncertain. Additionally, graphite is a critical ingredient in batteries, and
the sharp increase in global demand for batteries has taken a significant bite
out of that supply.
More
Mechanical engineering professor uses coal to create
graphene (phys.org)
What a day for another $106 billion imperial boondoggle. There is not
one dime in “Joe Biden’s” war package that enhances the safety and security of
the American homeland, yet all of it is being blithely charged to Uncle Sam’s
vastly over-extended credit card.
Nor should you take our word for it. What’s left of the Fed-tortured bond market cried out for help this AM, tagging the 5.00% level on the benchmark 10-year UST (purple line) for the first time since June 2007.
But here’s the thing. Back then, the public debt (yellow line) was $8.8 trillion, meaning every 100 basis points of increased yield added $88 billion to annual debt service. Today, of course, the public debt is $33.5 trillion, and the incremental debt service on 100 basis points will amount to $335 billion or nearly 4X more.
----Alas, what comes around goes around. Now the
entire yield curve is trading at 5% or above, meaning that all of that
ultra-cheap debt will be maturing for years to come, only to be replaced with
much higher yields as far as the eye can see. At the moment, the gap between
the embedded carry cost of 2.92% and an at-market level of @5.22% would amount
to incremental debt service cost of nearly $800 billion per annum!...
David Stockman. October 23, 2023.
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