Baltic Dry Index. 2046 -25 Brent Crude 91.33
Spot Gold 1974 US 2 Year Yield 5.07 -0.07
"There is no means of avoiding the final
collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of
further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the
currency system involved."
Ludwig
von Mises.
What happens in the stock casinos this week is highly dependent on what happens next in our new Middle East war.
If the war widens out into Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, expect the price of crude oil to surge above $100 and with it global inflation to surge.
If
the fire brigade turn up to start releasing hostages, putting out the inferno
in Gaza and getting the adults in Israel and Gaza to stop throwing petrol on
the fire, (unlikely,) then here is what might drive the stock casinos in more
normal times.
Asia markets
mostly down ahead of regional inflation readings and South Korea growth figures
UPDATED SUN, OCT 22 2023 9:58 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets are mostly lower ahead of a week of inflation readings from across the
region and South Korea’s third-quarter gross domestic product numbers.
Singapore and
Australia will release inflation figures for September on Monday and Wednesday respectively,
while Japan will release Tokyo’s inflation numbers on Friday. Tokyo’s inflation
is considered a leading indicator of nationwide figures.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.81% in Monday morning trading, extending losses from last week and on pace
for a third straight session of losses.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped
0.37%, while the Topix was down 0.13%. South Korea’s Kospi was
trading just below the flatline, while the Kosdaq bucked the trend and gained
0.51%.
Hong Kong’s markets are closed
for a holiday Monday, but the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index continued its
slide, down 0.46% and diving past its one-year low.
On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes
retreated as a surge in the 10-year
Treasury yield prompted broader concerns about the state of the
economy.
Most notably, the yield on the
benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed
5% for the first time in 16 years on Thursday.
The S&P 500 shed
1.26%, notching its first losing week in three, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
1.53% The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.86%.
Asia
stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for mixed open as global sentiment wavers
UPDATED MON, OCT 23 2023 12:37 AM
EDT
European
markets are heading for a mixed open Monday as investors continue to monitor
economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and look ahead to a busy week for
earnings and the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy decision.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly lower ahead of a week of inflation readings
from across the region and South Korea’s third-quarter gross domestic product
numbers.
U.S. stock futures ticked higher
on Sunday night as traders looked ahead to the release of corporate earnings
from tech industry behemoths, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures edge higher on Sunday night as Wall Street awaits big tech earnings:
Live updates
UPDATED SUN, OCT 22 2023 6:54 PM
EDT
Stock futures ticked higher on Sunday night as
traders looked ahead to the release of corporate earnings from tech industry behemoths.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
59 points, or 0.18%. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
0.23% and 0.15%, respectively.
The moves follow a tough week for
stocks, as concerns over higher interest rates sent all three major indexes
into negative territory. The S&P 500 ended
the week 2.4% lower, notching its first losing week in three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped
3.2% to register its second losing week in a row.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury climbed
above the key 5% level on Thursday for the first time since
July 2007. The move came after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled
hawkish messaging in a speech at the Economic Club of New York.
Earnings season ramps up this
week, with a slew of big tech titans slated to report. Investors will
anticipate results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft to
provide key information for the stock market.
---- Traders
are also bracing for key economic data to be released this week, including
Thursday’s third-quarter advance report for the U.S. gross domestic product.
The personal consumption expenditure, an inflation yardstick, is due for
release on Friday. Investors are worried that if these reports come out
stronger than expected, yet another rate hike may not be completely off the
table this year.
Investors are gearing up for the busiest week of
earnings season, with 30% of companies in the S&P 500 slated
to report.
Tech titans Alphabet and Microsoft are
slated to release earnings after the bell on Tuesday. Meta is
due to report on Wednesday, and Amazon on
Thursday.
Three key industrial companies are
also reporting, starting with 3M and General Electric on
Tuesday. Boeing is
set to follow on Wednesday before the bell.
With General Motors reporting
on Tuesday and Ford on Thursday, investors will also gauge the economic impact
of the United Auto Worker strikes.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
ECB set to hold rates as inflation drifts downwards
October
23, 2023
For the first
time in over a year, European Central Bank policymakers are expected to decide
against raising interest rates again when they gather in Athens on Thursday.
Once red-hot,
inflation, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, has started to
ease, while the outlook for the economy has worsened.
Consumer
prices in the 20-nation currency bloc rose at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in
September, its lowest rate in almost two years.
The figure
remains clearly above the ECB's two-percent target, but the pain of rising
interest rates has been increasingly felt across the bloc.
The outbreak
of the Israel-Gaza war has added to the potential troubles faced by the
eurozone economy, already weathering the impact of the conflict in Ukraine.
The central
bank, which holds one meeting outside its Frankfurt headquarters every year,
looks set to follow in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and pause
interest rate hikes for the time being.
All
indications since the last meeting in September were that the ECB's current
tightening cycle was "over", said Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital
Economics.
Currently, the
ECB's key deposit rate sits at four percent, its highest mark in the history of
the central bank.
But after
deciding to hike at each of its last 10 meetings, raising rates at their fastest
pace ever, "the ECB won't be in any rush to take further action",
said ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski.
The conflict
in the Middle East would "further dampen eurozone growth prospects"
and, along with rising oil prices, left the ECB in a more "complicated"
position, Brzeski said.
"With all
the new uncertainties, there hasn't been a better moment in the last 16 months
for the ECB to take a pause than now," he added.
More
ECB
set to hold rates as inflation drifts downwards (msn.com)
Hong Kong inflation
higher than expected in September
Hong Kong’s inflation rate came in above
expectations for September, with the city’s consumer price index increasing 2%
year on year.
This is compared to
the 1.8% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and also faster than the
1.8% growth seen in August.
Hong Kong’s
statistics bureau said increases in prices were recorded in most sectors,
except durable goods.
Alcoholic drinks
and tobacco, clothing and footwear, as well as meals out and takeaway food led
the increases in prices, with alcoholic drinks notably increasing 18.9% year on
year.
Asia
stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
A recession will hit next year, hammering stock
prices and home values, Wall Street veteran predicts
October
22, 2023
- The US economy will
capitulate and enter a recession next year, Harley Bassman says.
- The Wall Street veteran
expects stocks and house prices to fall once unemployment and mortgage
defaults rise.
Bassman once
ignored a warning from "The Big Short" star Steve Eisman about the
mid-2000s bubble.
A recession will strike the
US economy next year, pummeling stocks and house prices, a Wall Street veteran
has warned.
Harley Bassman, the managing partner of Simplify Asset
Management, issued the bleak forecast during a recent Rosenberg Research webcast.
Bassman spent over 25 years at Merrill Lunch, and has
worked at both Pimco and Credit Suisse. He compared inflation to carbon
monoxide, and recalled that he once ignored a warning from one of the stars of
"The Big Short" about the mid-2000s housing bubble.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 Increases Sepsis Risk: Potential Therapeutic Benefits of Vitamin D
Recent
research has found that sepsis is more common and lethal among COVID-19
patients than previously thought.
10/20/2023 Updated: 10/20/2023
Recent research has found
that sepsis is more common and lethal among COVID-19 patients than previously
thought.
Sepsis is a highly severe
clinical syndrome, often originating from lung infections, urinary tract, skin,
or gastrointestinal tract, involving pathogens such as fungi, bacteria, viruses
(including COVID-19 and influenza), and more. The immune system becomes
hyperactive when combating these infections, leading to systemic inflammation
and tissue necrosis. In severe cases, it can result in shock, organ failure,
and even death.
A study revealed that for every one-hour delay in the
administration of targeted antibiotics, antifungal, or antiviral medications
after the onset of organ dysfunction or shock, the odds of a poor outcome
increase by 3 percent to 7 percent. Sepsis treatment in the United States is
estimated to cost $23.7 billion annually, making it the most expensive condition for
inpatient care.
One retrospective cohort study published in
JAMA Network Open in September conducted on 431,017 patients (with an average
age of 57.9) hospitalized in five hospitals in Massachusetts between March 2020
and November 2022 found that COVID-19-associated sepsis was present in 1.5
percent of all admissions and 28.2 percent of COVID-19-positive
hospitalizations. Additionally, presumed bacterial sepsis was present in 7.1
percent of hospitalizations.
The researchers also found
that in the first 33 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately one-sixth
of sepsis cases were attributed to COVID-19.
Between the first and last
quarters of the study, the mortality rate of COVID-19-related sepsis decreased
from 33.4 to 14.9 percent, while presumed bacterial sepsis mortality was stable
at 14.5 percent.
----Vitamin D: An Essential Adjunctive
Treatment
Vitamins are essential micronutrients in the human body,
playing a crucial role in numerous biological pathways associated with sepsis,
including antioxidant and anti-inflammatory functions, protein and hormone
synthesis, energy production, and gene regulation.
Dr. Ryoichi Nakahara, who
holds a doctorate in surgery from the University of Tokyo, stated during an
interview with The Epoch Times that the high metabolic state triggered by the
immune response in sepsis patients rapidly depletes micronutrients in the body.
Numerous vitamin trials have suggested that vitamin D, vitamin C, and other
micronutrient supplements offer a fresh perspective on sepsis treatment.
More
COVID-19 Increases Sepsis Risk: Potential Therapeutic Benefits of Vitamin D | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
China imposes
export curbs on graphite
Restrictions on critical
electric vehicle battery material set to escalate trade tensions with US
October 20, 2023
China has
imposed export controls on graphite, a material used in electric vehicle
batteries, as Beijing hits back at US-led restrictions on technology sales to
Chinese companies.
China,
which dominates global supply chains for the mineral, will require special
export permits for three grades of graphite, the commerce ministry and the
General Administration of Customs said on Friday.
The
new export controls, which China said were introduced on “national security”
grounds, are set to escalate geopolitical tensions between Beijing and
Washington and its allies over tech supply chains. They also underline China’s
dominance of global supplies of dozens of critical resources.
Graphite
for batteries can be produced either from mined material, which is called
“natural” material, or in a “synthetic” process using petroleum feedstocks,
which helps the cell charge quicker and last longer but is more expensive to
produce.
China is by far the biggest processor of
natural graphite and generated almost 70 per cent of the world’s synthetic
graphite last year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, making it one
of the critical materials where Beijing has the tightest stranglehold.
The
move comes days after US president Joe Biden’s administration tightened
controls on exports of cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips to China.
Beijing
criticised Washington for the controls. The Chinese commerce ministry on
Wednesday said the “US constantly overstretches the concept of national
security, abuses export control measures and turns to unilateral bullying acts,
which China is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly objects to”.
Japan
said it would look into whether China’s latest measures were in accordance with
World Trade Organization and other international rules.
Japan
said it would look into whether China’s latest measures were in accordance with
World Trade Organization and other international rules.
“We
will take appropriate steps . . . if the measures are deemed unjust,” said
chief cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno on Friday, adding that the government
will assess the impact of the export curbs. “We will check with the Chinese
side on their intentions and operational policies of the measures.”
The
White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Executives
at companies in the graphite supply chain said they are scrambling to
understand how the new export controls differ to existing ones on graphite
introduced in 2006.
Graphite
prices have fallen 30 per cent since the start of the year but Thomas Kavanagh,
head of battery materials at commodity data provider Argus, said the
restrictions could set them on an “upward trajectory internationally”.
While
Chinese officials are wary of retaliation that could damage China’s own
companies, Beijing in recent months has started to leverage its dominance over
a vast array of materials and resources in response.
More
China imposes export curbs on graphite (ft.com)
“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor
rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego
the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the
State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because
this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the
economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create
wealth by means of the printing press!- You statesmen want to build railways,
and complain of the low state of the exchequer? Well, then, do not beg loans
from the capitalists and anxiously calculate whether your railways will bring
in enough to enable you to pay interest and amortization on your debt. Create
money, and help yourselves.”
Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit.
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