Baltic Dry Index. 2046
-25 Brent Crude 92.16
Spot Gold 1981 U S 2 Year Yield 5.07 -0.07
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
In the stock casinos, another bad week in an often bad month for stocks.
A war on terrorism threatens to become a wider Middle East war; rising US interest rates have begun sucking cash out of stocks; rising oil prices threaten to bring on more inflation; consumers on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be running out of cash or credit or both.
Another difficult week in the stock casinos lies ahead.
The only good news last week, two US hostages held by the
terrorist group Hamas were released on Friday.
Wall St ends sharply lower, posts weekly losses; Mideast
fears increase
By Caroline Valetkevitch October 21, 20232:14 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, Oct 20
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended sharply lower for the day and week on Friday as
investors worried about more interest rate hikes and the Israel-Hamas conflict
spreading.
The
S&P 500 (.SPX) and
Nasdaq (.IXIC) fell
more than 1% each. All of the S&P 500 index's 11 sectors ended lower in
broad-based selling, with technology (.SPLRCT) and financials (.SPYS) among the biggest
drags.
Israel leveled a northern Gaza
district as its conflict with Hamas intensified. The latest outbreak of
violence began Oct. 7 with attacks by Hamas militants.
"Geopolitically,
with the weekend, investors are going to be cautious and taking money off of
the table," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates
Inc, an investment advisory firm in Toledo, Ohio.
The S&P 500 financial index (.SPSY) was down 1.6% while the KBW regional banking index (.KRX) fell 3.5%. Shares of Regions Financial (RF.N) slid 12.4% after its profit missed analysts' average estimate.
"That
whole sector is under a cloud, with higher rates. We might not have that soft
landing and that's going to hurt," Lancz said.
The benchmark
10-year Treasury yield eased on Friday, a day after crossing 5% for the first
time since July 2007 in the wake of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell. He said the U.S. economy's strength and tight labor markets could
require tougher borrowing conditions to control inflation.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average (.DJI) fell 286.89 points, or 0.86%, to 33,127.28,
the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 53.84 points, or 1.26%, to 4,224.16 and
the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 202.37 points, or 1.53%, to
12,983.81.
More
Wall
St ends sharply lower, posts weekly losses; Mideast fears increase | Reuters
Wall St Week Ahead Investors seek shelter as U.S. stocks grow
more turbulent
By Lewis Krauskopf October 21, 20231:58 AM GMT+
NEW YORK, Oct 20
(Reuters) - Growing volatility in U.S. stocks is driving a search for defensive
assets, though investors may have fewer places to hide this time around.
Wall Street’s most closely-watched measure of investor nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), on Friday hit its highest in nearly seven months, as the S&P 500 slid for the week. The benchmark stock index is down 8% from late July, when it hit its high for the year, though still up 10% year-to-date.
Assets that can
help investors weather the storm may be in short supply. Equity sectors such as
utilities and consumer staples, popular with nervous investors when markets
grow choppy, have been swept up in the S&P 500’s recent decline.
The
Japanese yen stands at its lowest against the dollar in about a year. U.S.
government bonds are on track for an unprecedented third straight annual loss,
with yields on the benchmark 10-year
Treasury - which move inversely to bond prices - at their highest
since 2007.
Investors
have plenty of reasons to be jumpy. Rising bond yields have dampened risk
appetite, raising the cost of capital for companies and offering investment
competition to stocks. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on
Thursday said the stronger-than-expected U.S. economy might warrant tighter
policy.
Fears that the
conflict in the Middle East will widen have made traders more anxious, while a
weaker-than-expected earnings report for Tesla this week also darkened the
mood.
Volatility
in stocks has been accompanied by increased gyrations in the Treasury market.
The MOVE index (.MOVE),
which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, stands near a four-month
high.
"When rates
are increasing at the rate they are and the geopolitical situation is what it
is, now you are getting a bid to volatility," said Brent Kochuba, founder
of options analytics service SpotGamma.
The
week ahead will be busy for markets, with earnings due from Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) - four of the seven
U.S. megacap stocks whose gains have powered the S&P 500 higher this year
while the rest of the index has lagged.
The index's
defensive sectors have been battered this year, with utilities down about 18%,
consumer staples off nearly 9% and healthcare down roughly 6%, partly because
higher yields on Treasuries have dulled their allure.
"Safe-haven
assets have not performed as expected in response to conflicting growth data
and elevated geopolitical tensions," analysts at UBS Global Wealth
Management wrote on Friday.
Investors still
have some portfolio hedges. Prices for gold have soared 8% since the conflict
between Israel and Hamas broke out this month.
In
currencies, the Swiss franc, a longstanding
safe haven asset, stands near its highest level against the euro since 2015.
The dollar is up 5% in the last three months.
More
Wall
St Week Ahead Investors seek shelter as U.S. stocks grow more turbulent |
Reuters
European
stocks mark lowest close since start of the year; UK 30-year yield at highest
since 1998
UPDATED FRI, OCT 20 2023 12:39 PM EDT
European
equity markets closed at their lowest level since the start of the year on
Friday, as investors digested comments from U.S. monetary policymakers and
global sentiment stutters.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index
fell 1.3% in its fourth straight decline, marking a close last seen on Jan 2.,
according to Dow Jones data.
All sectors were lower, with
mining stocks dropping by 3.35% and tech stocks down by 2.3%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
acknowledged recent signs of cooling inflation but
said Thursday that the central bank would be “resolute” in its
commitment to its 2% mandate. Powell did not lay out a specific policy path but
also gave no indication that a further interest rate hike was on the cards.
The Fed opted
to hold interest rates steady at its last meeting in September,
but did suggest there would be one more hike before the end of the year.
European
markets open lower on Fed remarks and glum global sentiment (cnbc.com)
FTSE 100 live: London ends week deep in
the red on back of Israel-Gaza war, borrowing and retail figures
FRIDAY 20 OCTOBER 2023 9:25 AM
London’s
FTSE 100 ended the week deep in the red following disappointing retail figures
and falling but still very high, public borrowing stats.
The
capital’s premier bluechip index was 1.31 per cent down by the close, at
7,401.30, while the FTSE 250, which is more aligned with the domestic market,
dropped to 0.9 per cent, to 17,058.15.
Among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 was the
Intercontinental Hotels, down 4.32 per cent, after it reported a big slowdown
in its third quarter trading this morning. It also announced the appointment of
Sir Ron Kalifa as non-executive director.
Mobico, the company which runs National Express, saw its shares up by more than seven per cent, while the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 was Rentokil Initial, which was down more than five per cent.
----
This morning, London woke up to disappointing retail figures from the Office
for National Statistics, as an unseasonably warm September impacted clothes
sales.
In
particular, total non-food sales volumes in department and clothing
stores dipped by 1.9 per cent, following a slight rise of 0.3 per cent the
prior month.
Aled
Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank, said: “Falling
sales suggest that, despite inflation waning on essentials like food, consumers
remain cautious with their monthly household budgets.”
Meanwhile, fresh figures from the ONS showed the government borrowed £14.3bn last month, down £1.6bn on the same period last year, but still as the sixth-highest September figure since the records began in 1993.
The latest figures are unlikely to change his mind
despite being relatively benign compared to recent spending totals.
Later in the day, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey told
the Belfast Telegraph he predicted inflation to drop, after it paused its
interest rate hiking cycle.
Before the open, analysts expected stocks to fall amid ongoing uncertainty
in the Middle East, with investors sticking to commodities such as safe-haven
asset gold, priced at £1,635, near a month-high.
This comes as Israel is engaged in a war with Gaza’s ruling Hamas, after
the group killed 1,400 Israelis on 7 October, sparking a war. Investors have
been concerned about the conflict spreading more widely across the region,
which could impact oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and gulf nations.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: “Markets
remain unsteady and investors undecided, as rising Middle Eastern tensions and
bond yields threaten to undermine any thoughts of an immediate rally.
More
FTSE 100: London down on back of war, borrowing and retail data (cityam.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
US budget gap soars to $1.7 trillion, largest outside COVID
era
By David Lawder
October 20, 202310:27 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, Oct 20
(Reuters) - The U.S. government on Friday posted a $1.695 trillion budget deficit
in fiscal 2023, a 23% jump from the prior year as revenues fell and outlays for
Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt
rose.
The Treasury Department
said the deficit was the largest since a COVID-fueled $2.78 trillion gap in
2021. It marks a major return to ballooning deficits after back-to-back
declines during President Joe Biden's first two years in office.
The deficit comes as
Biden is asking
Congress for $100 billion in new foreign aid and security
spending, including $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel, along
with funding for U.S. border security and the Indo-Pacific region.
The big deficit, which exceeded all
pre-COVID deficits, including those brought about by Republican tax cuts passed
under Donald Trump and from the financial crisis years, is likely to enflame
Biden's fiscal battles with Republicans in the House of Representatives, whose
demands for spending cuts pushed the U.S. to the brink of default in early June
over the debt ceiling.
---- "Falling revenues are a significant
contributor to the 2023 deficit, underscoring the importance of President
Biden's enacted and proposed policies to reform the tax system," Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen and Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda
Young said in a joint statement.
The fiscal 2023 deficit
would have been $321 billion larger, but was reduced by this amount because the
Supreme Court struck down Biden's student loan forgiveness program as
unconstitutional. The ruling forced the Treasury to reverse a pre-emptive
charge against fiscal 2022 budget results that increased that year's deficit.
The fiscal year 2022
deficit was $1.375 trillion.
Taking into account the two
one-off adjustments, last fiscal year's deficit would have been closer to $1
trillion and this year's closer to $2 trillion, a Treasury official said.
More
US
budget gap soars to $1.7 trillion, largest outside COVID era | Reuters
UK economy: Retail sales crash as cost of
living crunch continues to bite
FRIDAY 20 OCTOBER 2023 7:35 AM
Retail sales volumes fell
by 0.9 per cent in September as the month proved to be another wash out for the
sector – with fears the slump could reflect a wider slowdown in the economy.
According to the latest reading from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), total non-food sales volumes in department and clothing stores dipped by 1.9 per cent, following a slight rise of 0.3 per cent the prior month.
The wider economy remains almost flat, with monthly GDP
growth of 0.2 per cent in August. The economy contracted by 0.6 per cent, month
on month, in July.
Household goods store
sales volumes reported a monthly fall of 2.3 per cent because of falls in
furniture and lighting stores, as consumers continued to put off buying big
ticket items amid the cost of living crisis.
Jewellery and watch
sellers were also impacted by a slowdown in spending, reporting a two per cent
fall.
Despite food
inflation falling to its lowest level since the summer of last year, shoppers still spent less at the till in September
as pressures across the economy continued to bite.
The ONS said that
volumes on groceries fell 0.2 per cent following a rise of 1.4 per cent in
August.
“Looking at the quarterly picture, sales volumes fell by 1.3 per cent in the three months to September 2023 when compared with the previous three months,” the government body said.
“However, our latest UK Sector Tracker shows that in September, prices
charged by food and drink manufacturers fell at the fastest rate in more than
three years. This could help foster greater spending habits (across the
economy) and lead to further cost drops being passed through to consumers.”
He added: “Retailers are acutely aware consumers continue to prioritise
their spending away from branded and big ticket purchases. Despite that, a
slowing rate of food price inflation should influence shoppers’ decision
making.
“Those eager to boost sales in the final months of the year will be
hoping a combination of falling inflation and a flurry of discounts are enough to
fuel consumer spending.”
UK economy: Retail sales crash as cost of living crunch continues to bite (cityam.com)
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Britain's secret biosecurity blunders revealed -
including two accidents which occurred during Covid and an experiment gone
wrong involving a smallpox-like virus
·
EXCLUSIVE: None of the incidents uncovered by this website were of high
risk
·
READ MORE: 'Bone-breaker'
fever could become endemic in UK, experts fear
British researchers
lost a genetically modified mouse and accidentally released a smallpox-like
pathogen in a string of biosecurity blunders kept under wraps.
MailOnline has
learned of six lab incidents where genetically modified organisms (GMO) have
escaped containment in the past five years. .
Four occurred before Covid swept the
globe.
Research involving genetically-modified
pathogens has come under huge scrutiny since the pandemic kicked off, with some
believing Covid was spawned by similar, controversial experiments.
It has
prompted calls for tougher regulation on studies involving intentionally
altering viruses and bacteria.
None of the incidents
uncovered by this website were of high risk, leading experts insisted.
However, biologist Dr Richard
Ebright, a vocal critic of so-called 'gain of function' experiments, argued
that such accidents are more common than we think.
He told MailOnline: 'Lab
accidents with pathogens, including genetically modified pathogens, occur
nearly daily worldwide and occur even in the best circumstances.
'The world needs increased
oversight and regulation of this type of research.'
All of the incidents — which
only stretch back to 2018 — were uncovered through a Freedom of Information
request.
One involved a genetically
altered type of mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria that causes
tuberculosis.
The Government's Health and
Safety Executive (HSE) listed the cause of the accident as power failure whilst
scientists were working with the bacteria.
The report doesn't mention how
many people were potentially exposed, for how long, or how the power outage
occurred in the first place.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Bizarre
new electronic state discovered in five-layer graphene
Michael Irving October 18, 2023
It seems there’s no end to surprises from everybody’s
favorite wonder material, graphene. MIT physicists have now discovered yet
another brand new electronic state hiding in this overachieving little material
– something they give the bizarre name of “ferro-valleytricity.”
Graphene is essentially just a super thin sheet of plain old
graphite – so thin, in fact, that it’s only one atom thick. But despite these
humble beginnings, graphene is super strong, superconducting, flexible, and
poised to revolutionize everything from electronics to clothing to aerospace
engineering. When you start stacking
sheets up and even twisting
them to specific
angles, other remarkable abilities emerge, like magnetism or superpermeability
to water.
In the new study, the MIT team discovered yet another one –
“multiferroic behavior,” which is rare in the material world. A ferroic
material is one where there’s a coordinated behavior to its particles – a
magnet, for example, involves all its electrons pointing their spins in the
same direction even without an external magnetic field. Multiferroic materials
are those that display more than one coordinated behavior – say, if the
magnetism points in one direction and its electric charge in another.
The researchers calculated that under very specific
circumstances, graphene should become multiferroic. Theoretically it should
only occur when five sheets of graphene are stacked on top of each other, with
each layer slightly offset so the 3D whole forms a rhombus shape.
“In five layers, electrons happen to be in a lattice
environment where they move very slowly, so they can interact with other
electrons effectively,” said Long Ju, lead author of the study. “That’s when
electron correlation effects start to dominate, and they can start to
coordinate into certain preferred, ferroic orders.”
More
Bizarre new electronic state discovered in five-layer
graphene (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. This week a long forgotten Flemish composer who died young. Approx. 13 minutes.
Pierre
van Maldere (1729-1768) - Sinfonia a più strumenti (1768)
Pierre van Maldere (1729-1768) - Sinfonia a più
strumenti (1768) - YouTube
Van Maldere enjoyed an international
reputation. Both Mozart and Haydn were familiar with his
work. The Austrian composer Carl Ditters von Dittersdorf noted him as one of the most important virtuosi of his
time.[3]
Pieter
van Maldere - Wikipedia
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 13 minutes.
It
Happened Again! || Carlsen vs Karthikeyan || Qatar (2023)
It Happened Again! || Carlsen vs Karthikeyan || Qatar (2023) - YouTube
This
weekend the maths update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Why
do mirrors flip left and right but not up and down?
Why do mirrors flip left and right but not up and
down? - YouTube
"Indeed the temporary
breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those
who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February
and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these
occasions the [New York] Times
happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again.
Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was
coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has
long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance
were similarly, if less permanently discredited.”
J. K. Galbraith. The Great
Crash: 1929.
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