Baltic Dry Index. 1949 -68 Brent Crude 87.84
Spot Gold 1971 US 2 Year Yield 5.02 -0.03
"Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). 'Higher for longer' is yesterday's mantra."
Bill Gross.
I know, many of my readers won’t like my WW2 comparison, but remember, the 1943 atrocity by Germany was followed one year later by the even more disastrous Warsaw uprising atrocity committed by Germany.
Clearly, Israel isn’t about to send the Gaza survivors out to death concentration camps, nor does it have or intend any death camps, but the rest of the world needs to engage in quiet diplomacy.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
Whether there are any adults left in Washington, London, NATO Brussels, Tel Aviv or Tehran, is questionable.
But if not, is an 80 year old in Washington not an uncanny rhyme of Franz Joseph I, Emperor of Austria (1830-1916,) who started WW1 in 1914, “rightfully thinking, ” in response to the Serbian atrocity of assassinating Archduke Franz Ferdinand, June 28th, 1914, he was only setting off a punitive minor local war?
Someone somewhere needs to ask God to stop this madness before we reach WW3.
The UNSC yesterday made one more (final?) attempt to get the deaf to hear each other, but no one was listening as every nation had its own excuse and justification for their actions and inaction! I was able to watch the debate live on TV.
But
Graeme, like the UNSC, is just the sound of one hand clapping.
Your Evening Briefing: Biden Says Aid Isn’t Getting Into Gaza Fast
Enough
October 24, 2023 at 11:23 PM GMT+1
US President
Joe Biden said humanitarian aid isn’t getting into Gaza fast enough as Israel extended its bombing
campaign, with Gaza’s Hamas-run health agency reporting more than 5,700 people
killed there since the war began, including 700 overnight. The Red Crescent said eight aid trucks arrived
late Tuesday after deliveries were held up. United Nations Secretary-General
Antonio Guterres has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza at the Security
Council, alleging there have been “clear violations” of international law. The
Israeli military began offering cash and protection for anyone who shares
accurate information on the whereabouts of hundreds of Israeli hostages seized by Hamas in the surprise Oct. 7 assault that
killed 1,400 people. Israel also said its forces struck Hamas divers who were
trying to enter southern Israel by sea and exchanged fire on its borders with
Lebanon and Syria.
Here are today’s top stories
The
Pentagon is sending Israel the
US Army’s two batteries of Iron Dome radar, command posts and interceptors to
boost the nation’s air defense. The additional hardware comes as Secretary of
State Antony Blinken warned that the US—which has assembled a large contingent
of forces in the region—would respond “decisively” if Iran or its proxies attack Americans,
the sternest warning yet as the Biden administration tries to keep Tehran from
joining the war.
---- A $201 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100
whipsawed in late hours as Microsoft climbed, while Google’s parent Alphabet
dropped after reporting earnings. The results came after the end of a session
marked by a rebound in stocks, with the S&P 500 halting a five-day slide.
Also after the closing bell, Texas Instruments gave a disappointing revenue
forecast and Visa reported profit that beat Wall Street estimates. Here’s your markets wrap.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Biden Says Aid Isn’t Getting Into Gaza Fast Enough -
Bloomberg
Elon Musk Warns "We
Are Sleepwalking Our Way Into World War Three"
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 - 03:45 AM
During
a Twitter/X Spaces discussion Monday, owner Elon Musk warned that he believes
the West is “sleepwalking our way into world war three,” and “putting
civilization itself at stake.”
Musk noted that
America is lagging behind both China and Russia in terms of industrial output,
and that Western leaders are pushing those two nations closer together
“in an axis of immense power against the west, and laying the groundwork for
World War Three.”
Musk explained
“Russia has the raw materials, and China has the industrial capacity,” adding
“It’s frankly, a perfect match from a war standpoint. So I think we need to
stop doing that. It’s unwise, and I think will lead to an immense risk
to civilisation.”
He continued, “I
want to emphasise like that, there’s civilisational risk – there are tragedies
on an individual level, tragedies on a community level, and then there’s
civilisational risk. We just need to make sure that we’re not putting
civilization itself at stake, which is World War Three.”
“I think we are
sleepwalking our way into World War Three,” Musk further noted, adding “Really,
people should be deeply self reflective. If they make their predictions have
not come true. They should consider whether perhaps there are other predictions
might not come true either.”
“What is the track
record here?” Musk continued, noting that there is no longer anyone alive who
remembers how horrific world wars are and that everyone today is “coddled.”
Elon
Musk Warns "We Are Sleepwalking Our Way Into World War Three" |
ZeroHedge
In the stock casinos, as in Noah’s time, the partying went on until it was too late to build an Ark.
In
the central bankster fuelled stock casinos, party on. The central banksters are
about to bring out the punch bowl again, right?
Hong Kong leads
rebound in Asia markets; Australia reports higher-than-expected inflation
figures
UPDATED WED, OCT 25 2023 12:24 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed as investors
assess Australia’s third-quarter inflation figures, which will give clues to
the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision when it meets on Nov.
3.
The country’s third
quarter inflation rate came in at 5.4%, slightly higher than the 5.3% expected
by economists polled by Reuters, but lower than the 6% seen in the second
quarter.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led
gains the region, surging 2.3% and powered by technology and consumer cyclical
stocks. Mainland Chinese stocks also rose, with the CSI 300 up 1.07%
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.29% after its CPI data release, reversing gains from Tuesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
1.15%, while the Topix climbed 1.06%. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi slipped
0.38%, and the Kosdaq fell 0.54%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
rose as investors focused on a fresh slate of earnings reports, and traders
monitored the latest moves in Treasury yields.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped
a four day losing streak, rising 0.62%. The S&P 500 added
0.73%, and the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.93%.
Asia stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on
economic forecasts
JPMorgan
Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on
Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy,
particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the
Federal Reserve.
In the latest of multiple warnings
about what lies ahead from the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets, he
cautioned that myriad factors playing out now make things even more difficult.
“Prepare for possibilities and
probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone
call it,” Dimon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment
Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“I want to point out the central banks 18 months
ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what
might happen next year.”
The comments reference back to the
Fed outlook in early 2022 and for much of the previous year, when central bank
officials insisted that the inflation
surge would be “transitory.”
Along with the misdiagnosis on
prices, Fed officials, according to projections
released in March 2022, collectively saw their key interest rate
rising to just 2.8% by the end of 2023 — it is now north of 5.25% — and core inflation at 2.8%, 1.1 percentage
points below its current level as
measured by the central bank’s preferred gauge.
Dimon criticized “this omnipotent
feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff.
I’m cautious.”
Much of Wall Street has been focused
on whether
the Fed might enact another quarter percentage point rate hike
before the end of 2023. But Dimon said, “I don’t think it makes a piece of
difference whether the rates go up 25 basis points or more, like zero, none,
nada.”
In other recent warnings, Dimon
warned of a potential scenario in which the fed
funds rate could eclipse 7%. When the bank released its earnings
report earlier this month, he
cautioned that, “This may be the most dangerous time the world has
seen in decades.”
more
Jamie
Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts (cnbc.com)
Back
in the real world, if the US auto workers strike isn’t settled soon, the USA’s
economic sky will soon begin falling.
Thousands
walk off job as UAW expands strike to Stellantis plant
More
than 40,000 UAW members on strike against Big Three automakers
OCT. 23, 2023 / 12:55 PM
Oct. 23 (UPI) -- Thousands of United Auto Workers members on Monday joined the
picket lines at Stellantis' Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in Michigan,
resulting in the temporary shutdown of vehicle production.
The union
said about 6,800 UAW
members walked out as part
of its Stand Up Strike effort. The action brings to 40,000 the number UAW
members engaged in strikes targeting the Big Three automakers approaching their
sixth week.
"Despite
having the highest revenue, the highest profits (North American and global),
the highest profit margins and the most cash in reserve, Stellantis lags behind
both Ford and General Motors in addressing the demands of their UAW
workforce," the union said in a press release.
"Stellantis
has the worst proposal on the table regarding wage progression, temporary
worker pay and conversion to full-time, cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) and
more."
The
Sterling Heights Assembly Plant produces Ram 1500 full-size pickup trucks.
Last
week, Ford Motor Co. implemented layoffs at its Sterling Axle
Plant in Michigan, affecting 150 employees.
The
company attributed the workforce
reductions, which have reached a
total of 418 employees, to the strike.
"Our production system
is highly interconnected, which means the UAW's targeted strike strategy has
knock-on effects for facilities that are not directly targeted for a work
stoppage," Ford spokesman Dan Barbossa said in a news release last week.
The strike first began on
Sept. 15 with a walkout affecting three assembly plants located in Michigan,
Missouri and Ohio. It has since expanded to encompass seven assembly plants and
38 parts distribution centers across 22 states.
Thousands walk off job as UAW expands strike to
Stellantis plant - UPI.com
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation
target: Why economists think it’s time for a change
TUESDAY 24 OCTOBER 2023 6:00 AM
The global economy has
been hit by the most serious round of inflation since the 1970s, prompting
central banks and analysts to rethink their understanding of inflation.
With inflation now on the way down, attention
is beginning to turn to what the ‘new normal’ will be – if we ever make it
there.
Inflation
targeting has been an essential and important part of the old macroeconomic
regime, and it will still have a very important role to play going forward, but
there is a growing chorus of voices suggesting reform is needed.
New Zealand was the first country in
the world to adopt an inflation target in 1990 with the UK following soon after
in 1992.
The idea of a target became
attractive as economists increasingly recognised the extent to which
expectations helped to generate inflation.
If workers thought prices would rise
in the medium term, they would ask for a pay rise which would send prices even
higher. However, if a central bank had a target, and it was seen to be
credible, then expectations could be anchored through the target.
This would help to ensure that
temporary price rises would not morph into structurally higher inflation.
Until last year, inflation in the UK
had hovered around two per cent fairly reliably. Indeed across much of the developed
world, inflation remained low and stable.
Economists told City A.M.
that the regime as a whole had been effective and there are very few economists
who argue that inflation targeting should be abandoned altogether.
“Although the two per cent target is
fairly arbitrary, the wider inflation targeting regime has played an important
role in anchoring expectations,” Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Capital
Economics, said.
So why change?
Ageing populations,
geopolitical tension and the green transition will all put pressure on the
supply-side of the economy in coming years. This makes inflation more likely,
because costs will be significantly higher.
Mohamed El-Erian, leading
economic commentator, supports raising the inflation target to three per cent.
He told City A.M. that “running inflation at a slightly higher
rate is something that we believe can accommodate these important supply
transitions”.
By tolerating a slightly higher rate
of inflation, interest rates would not have to be so high giving the economy
more broadly slightly more breathing space.
There are also ways to adjust the
inflation target without necessarily moving the target higher.
“What you’re ultimately targeting is
domestic inflationary pressures,” Dean Turner, chief UK and Eurozone economist
at UBS said. “If you’re targeting an inflation number, you need to make sure
that target is one that central banks can impact”.
In a world of increasing geopolitical
volatility, economies will be buffeted by shocks outside of their control which
will translate into higher inflation. But in those cases, there is not much
central banks can do to reduce it.
As Turner pointed out, “there is
little the Bank of England can do to influence global oil prices”.
The target could be
adjusted to focus more precisely on domestic inflation. In the UK policymakers
have often focused on wage growth and services inflation as
indicators of domestically driven inflation.
“There should be
regular reviews of what is the most appropriate measure to target which take
into account the changing drivers of inflation.”
More
Inflation target: Why economists think its time for a
change (cityam.com)
Cocoa Price Soars to Highest in 44 Years
Mon, October 23, 2023 at 5:07 PM
GMT+1
(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa surged to the highest
level in 44 years as global shortages boost costs for chocolate makers.
Futures traded in New York jumped as
much as 2.5% to the highest for a most-active contract since 1979. Behind the
gains are forecasts for poor crops in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana just as
demand is signaling an improvement.
“The supply and demand situation
remains bullish,” Jack Scoville, a vice president for Price Futures Group in
Chicago, said in a report.
Cocoa for December delivery surged to
$3,786 a metric ton in New York, the highest since January 1979. The price
exceeded an earlier peak reached in March 2011, when civil war in Ivory Coast
resulted in a cocoa export ban. The key chocolate-making ingredient has surged
more than 40% this year, the biggest gain among the key US-traded commodities.
Bean deliveries to ports in Ivory
Coast are about 16% behind this season, according to a person familiar with
government data. Analysts are expecting a third consecutive deficit for the key
chocolate ingredient.
All of that is happening as a strong
El Niño threatens to bring dryness to West Africa, further hurting crops. Demand
is also improving, with bean processing in Europe turning out better than
expected. Ivory Coast and Brazil are also boosting grindings.
Previously, supply shortages drove up
cocoa prices back in the 1970s, with the commodity reaching a peak of $5,379 a
ton in July 1977, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The cocoa rally has been noted by
cookie and candy makers. Oreo maker Mondelez International Inc. cited cocoa as
one of a number of commodities with rising prices in the first half of the year.
Hershey Co. Chief Financial Officer Steve Voskuil said in April that “cocoa and
sugar in particular are moving in the wrong direction.”
“We do expect to see potentially more
impact in ’24 than ’23, but we’ll see how the markets play out,” he added.
Cocoa Price Soars
to Highest in 44 Years (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today and the rest of the week, why the British public hold most Members of Parliament in contemp. Only 16 or 17 MPs bothered to attend the House, mostly Conservative MPs, with the rest of the Commons treating the British public suffering from vaccine damage, with antipathy and disrespect.
Parliamentary
speech on excess deaths
Parliamentary speech on excess deaths - YouTube
Great
public support
Great
public support - YouTube
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Gargantuan 22-MW wind turbine will be among history's
largest machines
Loz Blain October 22, 2023
Imagine something as tall as New York's
Chrysler building, but spinning. China's Mingyang Smart Energy has announced
plans for a colossal 22-megawatt offshore wind turbine, and standing in its
presence will be an unprecedented human experience.
The feats of engineering in offshore wind are
becoming almost comical in scale, for a simple reason: the amount of energy you
can extract from a turbine depends mostly on its swept area. The bigger that
swept circle gets, the more energy you can harvest – but also, the greater the
bonus becomes for adding more length.
Put it this way: if
your turbine has a 20-meter (85.6-ft) diameter, and you add one further meter
(3.3 ft) to that diameter, you gain somewhere around 34 square meters (366 sq
ft) of additional swept area. But if your turbine starts with a 50-m (164 ft)
diameter, adding one extra meter of diameter brings in about 79 extra square
meters (850 sq ft) of swept area, since that extra blade length is sweeping a
bigger circle.
What's more, these
huge offshore turbines are extremely expensive to install, and the economics of
deployment and grid connection tend to work in favor of fewer, larger turbines
than more, smaller ones.
Thus, the sheer size of these things is getting
absolutely nutty. The H260-18MW
turbine currently under construction by CSSC
uses 128-m-long (420-ft) long blades for a ridiculous 260-m (853-ft) diameter
and a 53,000-sq-m (570,490-sq-ft) swept area. That's 9.9 NFL football fields or
42.4 Olympic swimming pools when converted to standard journalistic units –
ignoring the small area left unswept by its hub.
----The new turbine proposed for 2025 by MingYang, according
to Bloomberg, will
have a peak output of 22 MW, and a rotor diameter over 310 m (1,017 ft),
corresponding to a swept area of at least 75,477 sq m (812,425 sq ft, 14.1 NFL
football fields, 60 olympic swimming pools), minus hub.
Add on a little clearance to
make sure the blade tips stay out of the water, and you'll probably be looking
at something taller than New York's 319-m (1,047-ft), 77-story Chrysler Tower,
or the 324-m (1,063-ft) Eiffel Tower in Paris – but spinning. I don't have an
imagination capable of picturing just how awe-inspiring a machine like this
would be at close range.
Indeed, these will be some of
the largest moving parts ever built. Can you think of anything else with
visible moving parts this big? Nothing in the mining mega-machine category
comes close, and while the 27-km (16.6-mile) circumference of the Large Hadron
Collider holds the title of the world's
largest machine overall, it's
hidden underground, and particle acceleration isn't exactly a spectator sport.
Gargantuan 22-MW wind turbine will be among history's
largest machines (newatlas.com)
"We covered our
bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at
current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data
suggests."
Bill Ackman.
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