Baltic Dry Index. 1563 -99 Brent Crude 90.48
Spot Gold 2008 U S 2 Year Yield 4.99 -0.03
“What you’re seeing now with the bond market is, you know, bond vigilantes are back in vogue, back from the 80s, back from the dead, and I think they’re leading the market today,”
David Neuhauser, Chief Investment Officer of Livermore Partners.
With the war on Gaza leading mainstream media, the weekend update will stick just to the markets, but the devastating war is fast polarising world opinion and could easily become a market dominating feature, next week and next month.
So far, only gold seems to have reacted to the Gaza war.
Below, a bad day for most stocks, with month-end and a
Fed meeting still to come.
S&P 500 Enters Correction
Major
indexes on track to fall for three straight months
Updated
Oct. 27, 2023 6:01 pm ET
The autumn pullback in the stock market worsened
Friday, pushing the S&P 500 into a correction and to its worst two-week
decline of the year.
The broad stock-market gauge wavered for much of the day before
turning lower and losing 0.5% for the session, bringing it down more than 10%
from its recent high. A drop in shares of Chevron and JPMorgan Chase helped
send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 367 points, or 1.1%, to its lowest
closing level since March.
The Nasdaq Composite eked out a
0.4% gain, though the tech-heavy index finished well off its session highs. The
index entered a correction earlier in the week and has fallen for three
consecutive weeks.
The mood in the market has darkened in October as
investors have parsed a wave of earnings results from some of the biggest
companies in America while navigating a punishing bond rout. The yield on the
10-year Treasury note breached
5% for the first time in 16 years in early trading Monday, keeping
many investors glued to the bond market throughout the week. It settled at
4.846% on Friday.
“Bonds and yields are in the driver’s seat right now for markets,”
said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. “Yields
simply moved too high, too fast.”
The sharp ascent in bond yields has triggered volatility across
markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are on track to
finish October with three consecutive months of losses, the worst such stretch
since the three months ending March 2020.
More
S&P
500 Enters Correction - WSJ
European stocks close lower as investors assess
global data, earnings; Sanofi falls 19%
UPDATED FRI, OCT 27 2023 12:06 PM EDT
European stocks closed lower on Friday, with
earnings and the state of the global economy keeping sentiment on edge.
The benchmark Stoxx 600 ended
down 0.8%, with most sectors and major bourses in negative territory.
Healthcare stocks slipped 2.9% to lead losses, while chemicals stocks climbed
0.8%.
The pan-European index has had a
muted week overall but is heading for its worst monthly performance since Sept.
2022, according to LSEG data.
Company results have caused big movements in
individuals stocks. NatWest plunged
as much as 17% near the open, before paring losses and ending the session down
11%. The bank reported third-quarter results that showed a lower net interest
margin, while the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority said Friday morning it had
found “potential regulatory breaches” in its report into a banking
account scandal that ousted NatWest CEO Alison Rose.
Earlier in the week, Deutsche Bank gained
on a forecast beat as Barclays tumbled
after it warned of cost-cutting
charges ahead.
Investors also remain focused on
central bank messaging on “higher
for longer” rates and economic indicators as bond yields remain
elevated. U.S. gross domestic product grew
by 4.9% in the third quarter, ahead of estimates, sparking
stock market jitters.
More
European
markets open to close: earnings, yields, U.S. GDP (cnbc.com)
Global bond rout looks ‘tremendously dangerous’ for
stocks, hedge fund manager warns
PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 27 2023 8:22
AM EDT
An intensifying bond rout is piling pressure on the
global economy and creating a “tremendously dangerous” outlook for equities,
the chief investment officer of Livermore Partners hedge fund said Friday.
A new era of higher interest rates has caused bond
yields to surge, hampering returns for investors and flipping on its head the
status quo of the past decade-and-a-half, David Neuhauser told CNBC. Bond
yields move inversely to prices.
Asked how worrying that landscape was for equities,
he said: “I think it’s tremendously dangerous at this point.”
“We’re in this world of risk where, for almost 15
years, you had a bond market that was in a bull market, and you had rates
negative for several years,” Neuhauser told “Squawk
Box Europe.”
“That dynamic fed throughout the global economy,
where housing prices were affordable, autos were affordable, and people were
subjected to an environment and a lifestyle which had much lower interest
rates.”
That environment has shifted as central banks have
pushed ahead with rate hikes to tackle higher inflation. That, in turn, has
pushed bond yields higher and sapped money from government budgets by raising
borrowing costs.
In the U.S. Treasury market — a crucial component
of the global financial system — bond yields have surged to highs not seen
since the onset of the global financial crisis. In Germany, Europe’s largest
economy, yields have hit their highest level since the 2011 euro zone debt
crisis. And in Japan, where interest rates are still below 0%, yields have
risen to 2013 highs.
“I think that is going to cause a lot of pain
moving forward in terms of the economy,” Neuhauser said.
More
Global bond rout looks 'tremendously dangerous' for
stocks, hedge fund manager warns (cnbc.com)
Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy
Treasury market as Fed looms
By David Randall
October 28, 20235:38 AM GMT+1
NEW
YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Financial markets are bracing for what could be a
momentous week, with a Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. employment data and
earnings from technology heavyweight Apple Inc (AAPL.O) possibly setting the
course for stocks and bonds the rest of the year.
October
has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields
and geopolitical uncertainty pressured stocks. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) is down 3.5% for the
month, adding to losses that have left it over 10% off its late-July high.
Whether
the ride remains rough for the rest of 2023 may depend in large part on the
bond market. The Fed's 'higher for longer' stance on interest rates and rising
U.S. fiscal worries pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield - which moves
inversely to prices - to 5% earlier this month, the highest since 2007. Higher Treasury
yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities
for buyers.
Investors
worry that yields could rise further if the Fed
reinforces its hawkish message at the central bank's Nov. 1 monetary policy
meeting. Strong U.S. employment data next Friday could also be a catalyst for
yields to rise if it bolsters the case for keeping rates elevated to cool the
economy and prevent inflation from rebounding.
"Stocks
will start to recover when the market believes that bond yields have
peaked," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Overall, futures
markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the Fed does not raise rates in
November, and a nearly 80% chance that the central bank holds rates steady in
December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Still, policymakers have projected
they will keep the key policy rate at current levels through most of 2024,
longer than markets had previously anticipated.
Investors are
playing a "waiting game of how much does each economic data point need to
increase to put another rate hike back on the table," said Alex McGrath,
chief investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth.
With
U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth at a sizzling 4.9% in the third
quarter, signs that the labor market remains too hot, or the Fed sees the need
for further tightening to control inflation, could fuel further volatility.
"It feels
like we are at a crossroads whether or not the strong growth we've seen over
the summer months will continue over the fourth quarter," and keep worries
over inflation and restrictive monetary policy bubbling, said Charlie Ripley,
senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.
Adding to the
bond market's concerns, the Treasury is expected to announce its upcoming
auction sizes later this week. Worries about a growing federal deficit and
increased supply have helped push yields higher.
More
Wall
St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed
looms | Reuters
There ae no recipes for success, only failure.
Peter Drucker.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% as expected in
September; spending tops estimate
PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 27 2023 8:34
AM ED
Inflation accelerated in
September but consumer spending was even stronger than expected, according to
a Commerce
Department report Friday.
The core personal consumption
expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve uses as a key measure of
inflation, increased 0.3% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate
and above the 0.1% level for August.
Even with the pickup in prices,
personal spending kept up and then some, rising 0.7%, which was better than the
0.5% forecast. Personal income rose 0.3%, one-tenth of a percentage point below
the estimate.
Including volatile food and energy prices, the PCE
index increased 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 3.7%,
one-tenth lower than August, while headline PCE was up 3.4%, the same as the
prior month.
The Fed focuses more on core inflation on the
belief that it provides a better snapshot of where prices are headed over the
longer term. Core PCE peaked around 5.6% in early 2022 and has been on a mostly
downward trek since then, though it is still well above the Fed’s 2% annual
target. The Fed prefers PCE as its inflation measure as it takes into account
changing consumer behavior such as substituting lower-priced goods as prices
increase.
More
Key Fed inflation
gauge rose 0.3% as expected in September; spending tops estimate (cnbc.com)
ECB Ends Record Run of Rate
Increases
October 26, 2023
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank held interest
rates steady, ending a historic run of 10 consecutive rate increases as
Europe’s currency union teeters on the brink of recession and uncertainty rises
around the global economy.
Major central banks including the Federal Reserve
have paused interest-rate increases after a rapid series of hikes as inflation
eases from last year’s multidecade highs. Now investors are watching for signs
that policy makers will pivot and start to reduce rates to support economic
growth that is faltering outside the U.S.
The central bankers’ decisions are complicated by
new headwinds facing the global economy, including Israel’s war with Hamas,
Russia’s continued war on Ukraine and high energy prices. A broad rise in
global bond yields is also putting downward pressure on growth and inflation.
ECB officials agreed Thursday to hold the bank’s
deposit rate at 4%, a record high for the institution created in 1998.
ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that
eurozone borrowing costs may have peaked as past rate increases increasingly
weigh on the region’s housing market and bank lending.
“We are seeing very strong transmission of monetary
policy in the banking sector in particular…. We know there is more still to
come,” Lagarde said at a news conference.
Lagarde acknowledged a weakening of the eurozone
economy as declining manufacturing output spills over to other sectors of the
economy. The labor market, until recently a bright spot, is also softening,
with fewer new jobs created, she said.
The euro edged lower against the dollar shortly
after the ECB’s policy statement, reflecting investor expectations that
eurozone rates have likely peaked. Eurozone bond yields declined, including in
Italy, as Lagarde signaled that the ECB wasn’t ready to reduce its vast
holdings of eurozone government debt faster.
Fed officials voted last month to hold interest
rates steady at a 22-year high and revealed a divide over whether they should
raise them once more this year. They meet again next week.
The ECB is in a trickier spot than the Fed because
the eurozone’s inflation rate is higher than that of the U.S. while Europe’s
economic growth rate is much lower.
The eurozone’s economy has stagnated for about a
year and business surveys suggest the region could now be in contraction. In
contrast, the U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 4.9% in the three months
through September, data published Thursday showed, extending the divergence
between two of the world’s biggest economic blocs.
The ECB also needs to keep an eye on weaker
southern European economies such as Italy, where 10-year bond yields recently
rose to an 11-year high of around 5%. This increases the cost of servicing the
country’s huge public debt and makes fresh deficits more expensive.
Inflation across the eurozone declined to 4.3% in
September from a peak of more than 10% last year, compared with a 3.7% U.S.
inflation rate last month.
More
ECB Ends Record Run of Rate Increases (msn.com)
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More
contempt for the public, by all parties in the Commons, on display yet again,
on the issue of Covid-19 vaccine safety. Approx. 14 minutes.
Safe
and effective
COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Reduce a Major Beneficial
Bacteria, Gut Biodiversity: Research
Some
unpublished data found that Bifidobacteria levels are negligible in vaccinated
people.
10/26/2023 Updated: 10/26/2023
Research has
shown that COVID-19 mRNA vaccines reduce bacteria belonging to the
Bifidobacteria genus, a common and beneficial gut bacteria. COVID vaccination
is also linked to reduced gut biodiversity.
Works by gastroenterologist Dr. Sabine
Hazan, the CEO of ProgenaBiome, a microbiome genomic research laboratory, found
that after COVID-19 vaccination, people's Bifidobacteria levels can fall by as
much as 90 percent. Some of her
unpublished data found that Bifidobacteria levels are negligible in vaccinated
people.
Bifidobacteria
are among the first microbes to colonize a baby's gastrointestinal tract as he
or she passes through the mother's birth canal. They are believed to exert
positive health effects on their host.
Bifidobacteria
interact with the immune system, and their presence is linked with improved
immunity against pathogens and cancer.
Dr. Hazan's prior works on hospitalized
COVID-19 patients showed that patients who
had severe COVID-19 tended to have no or low Bifidobacteria levels, whereas
those with higher stores of Bifidobacteria tended to develop asymptomatic
infection.
In her
research, she came across a pair of siblings enrolled in the COVID-19 vaccine
clinical trials.
"One sibling
got placebo, and one got the vaccine. The one sibling that got the vaccine got
harmed ... and she has no Bifidobacteria bacteria. Her brother, who got the
placebo and was not harmed, has this Bifidobacteria," she told The Epoch
Times.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
From Electric Vehicles to Construction Innovation:
The Forces Shaping the Future of the Graphene Market
Thu, 26 October 2023 at 12:03 pm BST
Dublin, Oct. 26, 2023 (GLOBE
NEWSWIRE) -- The "Global Graphene Market (by
Material, Application, & Region): Insights and Forecast with Potential
Impact of COVID-19 (2022-2027)" report
has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
The global graphene market is set
to exhibit remarkable growth, projected to be worth US$198.39 million by 2023,
with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.56% over the forecasted period.
Understanding Graphene
Graphene is an extraordinary
material, known for its exceptional strength, thermal and electrical
conductivity. It consists of a single sheet of carbon atoms arranged in a
hexagonal honeycomb lattice, making it the thinnest and strongest substance on
Earth. Graphene's outstanding properties, including its heat and electrical
conductivity, mechanical strength, and large surface area, have led to its
widespread recognition as a material with limitless potential. It has the
capacity to transform the properties of various materials, including
composites, concrete, elastomers, and plastics.
Segmentation
By Material: The graphene market is segmented into four
categories: Graphene Oxide, Reduced Graphene Oxide, Graphene Nanoplatelets, and
Others. The reduced graphene oxide segment is anticipated to be the
fastest-growing category in the forecasted period. Its applications span across
various sectors, including research, batteries, biomedicine, supercapacitors,
and printable graphene electronics. The product also finds use in chemical and
biological sensors, particularly in field-effect transistors (FETs).
More
This weekend’s music
diversion. An almost unknown, one time student of Heinichen. Approx. 14 minutes.
Johann
Christoph Förster (1693-1745) - Concerto à 5 for Oboe, Strings and B.C in C
minor
Johann Christoph Förster (1693-1745) - Concerto à 5
for Oboe, Strings and B.C in C minor - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Next
World Champion Might be Here
Next World Champion Might be Here - YouTube
No
weekend the maths update this weekend. This weekend, how the seashore
lighthouse became effective. Approx. 18
minutes.
The
Fresnel Lens: the Invention That Saved 1000 Ships
The Fresnel Lens: the Invention That Saved 1000 Ships
- YouTube
The secret to success is to know something nobody else knows.
Aristotle Onassis.
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