Baltic Dry Index. 1929 +102 Brent Crude 84.58
Spot Gold 1833 U
S 2 Year Yield 5.08 +0.05
My winnings were not quite enough to offset both my losses and
my living expenses.
Jesse Livermore.
Despite the US jobs report Friday unexpectedly soaring far above expectations and with the previous month revised 40,000 higher, the stock casinos crashed at first but then soared from the lows to close sharply higher.
What is going on?
Well, I suspect that the Fed’s New York office Plunge Protection Team was very busy Friday, after leaking ahead to the WSJ that the Fed is thinking about stopping its bond sales back to the market.
Bond Selloff Might Force Fed to Rethink Shedding Assets: Long-term interest rates have shot much higher in not much time. The tens of billions of dollars of Treasurys and mortgages the Federal Reserve is effectively pushing onto the market can’t be helping.
The Wall Street casinos have the Fed firmly in their back pocket and don’t the casinos know it.
Besides, a stock selloff doesn’t fit in with President Biden’s re-election plans and everyone knows that the Fed daren’t raise interest rates in a presidential election year, but can only cut them!
Still, to this old dinosaur stocks and commodities follower, it’s time to pass on stock casino risk to the last stand of greater fool buyers. Bonds will now be increasingly sucking cash out of stocks.
Look
away from that unfortunate BDI close now.
Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks
reverse sharp losses after hot jobs report: Live updates
Stocks rallied Friday even after the release of
stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and a pop in Treasury yields.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
288.01 points, or 0.87%, to close at 33,407.58. The S&P 500 added
1.18% at 4,308.50. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose
1.60%, closing at 13,431.34.
The U.S. economy added 336,000
jobs in September, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by
Dow Jones expected 170,000 jobs. To be sure, wages rose less than expected last
month.
Stocks posted a stunning turnaround on Friday,
after initially falling on the stronger-than-expected jobs report. At its
session low, the Dow had fallen as much as 272 points; it surged by more than
400 points at the height of the rally. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 slid by
0.9% during their lowest points in the day.
Traders were unclear of the reason for the intraday
reversal. Some noted it could be the softer wage number in the jobs report that
made investors rethink their earlier bearish stance. Others noted the pullback
in yields from the day’s highs. Part of the rally may just be to do a market
that had gotten extremely oversold with the S&P 500 at one point this week
down more than 8% from its high earlier this year.
Yields initially surged after the report, with the
10-year Treasury rate trading near its highest level in 16 years. The benchmark
rate later eased from those levels, but was still up around 6 basis points at
4.78%.
“We’re seeing a little bit of a give back in yields
from where we were around 4.8%. [With] them pulling back a bit, I think that’s
helping the stock market,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at
Verdence Capital Advisors. “We’ve had quite a bit of weakness in the market in
recent weeks, [and] some oversold conditions.”
“There is likely enough good news from wage
growth and the unemployment rate to keep the Fed from returning to rate hikes.
While market expectations about what the FOMC will do have shifted a bit after
digesting this morning’s report, there is still a strong expectation that rates
will remain unchanged in November,” said Dante DeAntonio, labor economist at
Moody’s Analytics.
Technology shares led the S&P
500′s sector gains on Friday, gaining 1.94%. Monolithic Power Systems, Advanced Micro Devices and Palo Alto Networks all
jumped more than 4%.
Ford advanced
0.84% and GM gained
1.95%. The action came after the United Auto Workers union said there would be no
new strikes this week because of progress in talks with
automakers.
The S&P 500 ended the week up
0.48%, breaking a four-week negative streak. The Nasdaq also notched a positive
week, climbing 1.60%. Meanwhile, the Dow closed down 0.30% for the week.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Payrolls soared by 336,000 in September, defying
expectations for a hiring slowdown
PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 6 2023 8:31 AM
EDT
Job growth was stronger than expected in
September, a sign that the U.S. economy is hanging tough despite higher
interest rates, labor strife and dysfunction in Washington.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the
month, better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000 and more than
100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday in a much-anticipated report. The unemployment rate
was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.
Stock market futures turned
sharply negative following the report and Treasury yields jumped. Dow futures
were down more than 250 pints, while the 10-year Treasury yield soared 0.17
percentage point to 4.87%, up around its highest levels since the early days of
the financial crisis.
The payrolls increase was the best monthly number
since January.
“Slowdown? What slowdown? The U.S. labor market
continues to exhibit amazing strength, with the number of new jobs created last
month nearly twice as large as expected,” said George Mateyo, chief investment
officer at Key Private Bank.
Investors have been on edge lately that a resilient
economy could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high and perhaps
even hike more as inflation remains elevated.
Wage increases, however, were softer than expected,
with average hourly earnings up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% from a year ago,
compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 4.3%.
Still, traders in the fed funds futures market
increased the odds of a rate increase before the end of the year to about 44%,
according to the CME Group’s tracker.
“Clearly it’s moving up expectations that the Fed
is not done,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles
Schwab. “All else equal, it probably moves the start point for rate cuts, which
has been a moving target, to later in 2024.”
Sonders said the bond market is “in the driver’s
seat” as far as stocks go, a trend that accelerated earlier in the week after
the Labor Department reported a jump in job openings for August.
More
Jobs report September 2023: Payrolls soared by 336,000
in September (cnbc.com)
US jobs growth surged in September as Fed
now likely to raise interest rates again
FRIDAY 06 OCTOBER 2023 1:56 PM
US job
growth surged in September, suggesting that the labor market remains strong
enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, though wage
growth is moderating.
Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its
closely watched employment report on Friday.
Data for August was revised higher to show 227,000 jobs added
instead of the previously reported 187,000
Economists polled by Reuters news agency had
forecast payrolls rising by 170,000 jobs. Estimates ranged from 90,000 to
256,000 jobs.
The larger-than-expected increase was despite the tendency for the initial
September payrolls print to be biased lower because of seasonal adjustment
issues related to the return of education workers after the summer break.
The economy needs to create roughly 100,000 per month to keep up with
growth in the working-age population.
Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot said
the numbers confirm that the market will have to “come to terms with higher
interest rates for longer.”
“The
surge in new jobs was unexpected and adds to the belief that the US economy
remains too hot, and that interest rate cuts will not be seen for a while.”
He
added: “Bond yields have been rising over the past month and it is data prints
like this that make the risk of inflation spiking again appear more of a
reality. The fact is that interest rates are not yet having the complete
desired effect of dampening demand and tightening conditions.”
---- There was no impact on payrolls from a strike
by the United Auto Workers (UAW) at General Motors , Ford Motor, and
Chrysler parent Stellantis. The strike by roughly 25,700 of the 146,000 UAW
members started towards the end of week that the government surveyed businesses
for September’s employment report.
There
was no boost from the end of a months-long strike by Hollywood actors, as they
returned to work after the payrolls survey period. The unemployment rate was unchanged
at an 18-month high of 3.8 per cent.
More
US
jobs growth surged in September as Fed now likely to raise interest rates again
- CityAM
10-year Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs
report
U.S. Treasury yields rose Friday, after the latest
jobs data came in better than economists anticipated.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury
was up 8 basis points at 4.799%. It had hit a 16-year high at
4.887% earlier on Friday, but eased from its session highs. The yield on
the 2-year Treasury was
last trading at 5.085% after rising by 6 basis points.
Yields and prices have an inverted
relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in
September, while economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 170,000 jobs added.
The unemployment rate was 3.8%, slightly higher than the 3.7% consensus
estimate.
Wages grew modestly less than
economists forecasted. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% on the month and 4.2%
on an annualized basis, while economists expected gains of 0.3% month over
month and 4.3% year over year.
Additionally, August and July
nonfarm payrolls were revised upward by a combined 119,000 jobs, far more
than previously reported.
Friday’s report comes as central
bank policymakers assess where Federal Reserve rates will go from here.
There have been mixed messages from
policymakers about whether rates will need to go higher still to ease the
economy, including the labor market, and cool inflation. However, Fed officials
appear to widely expect rates to stay higher for longer.
“Overall, it was a
stronger-than-expected print without question -- moderating wage growth is good
news for the Fed but nothing that will prevent them from hiking in November,”
wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, in a
note. “This print improves the odds of a November 1 quarter-point move.”
10-year
Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs report (cnbc.com)
Bear steepening US yield curve dashes 'soft landing' hopes
By Jamie McGeever
October 6, 20237:30 AM GMT+1
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 5
(Reuters) - The surge in long-dated U.S. bond yields currently underway and
driving the so-called 'bear steepening' of the yield curve will dramatically
reduce the economy's chances of achieving the fabled 'soft landing' and avoiding
recession.
High and rising long-term
borrowing costs tighten financial conditions by making it more expensive for
businesses and consumers to roll over debt or get credit, and more expensive
for companies to invest.
A steepening yield curve is
when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the
long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or
the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener.
The curve is aggressively
bear steepening now as investors dump long-term bonds. But what makes this
situation even harder to navigate is the fact that the curve is still inverted
- the two-year yield is still higher than the 10-year yield.
Bear steepenings of the
benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is
inverted, are rare.
Warren Pies, founder of
research firm 3Fourteen Research, classes a bear steepening as when the 10-year
yield rises 50 basis points or more while the two-year yield stays largely
unchanged. He reckons there have been 12 episodes in the past 50 years
including the current move, four of them around 1980-81.
Dario Perkins at TS Lombard
in London reckons there have been six bear steepenings in periods of broader
curve inversion going back to the late 1960s, again including the current one.
The historical sample size
is relatively small, and the precedence for what follows is pretty patchy. But
the flags raised are more red than green.
"The hope is that it's
something like 1968, a recession scare that didn't materialize," says TS
Lombard's Perkins. "But financial conditions are tightening, which isn't
great."
Credit card and mortgage
rates are the highest in decades, and it is hard to believe this will not have
a negative impact on the economy. 'Bond King' Bill Gross, co-founder of bond
giant PIMCO, tweeted this week that a 30-year mortgage rate of 7.7% "shuts
down" the housing market.
From an economic
perspective, there is a certain irony at play - long-dated yields are soaring
partly because incoming data suggests the economy is far more resilient than
most observers, including Federal Reserve policymakers, had expected.
Other factors are pushing
up long-end yields and steepening the curve - a deteriorating U.S. fiscal
picture, rising debt issuance, hedge fund activity in the futures market, and
investors demanding a higher 'term premium' or compensation for the risk of
holding long-term debt.
More
Bear steepening US yield curve dashes 'soft landing' hopes | Reuters
Finally,
how easy it was to dupe and scam the airline industry, from a postal address in
London.
The most dangerous scam in aviation history? How mystery fraudster duped the world's biggest airlines into using FAKE turbines, nuts and bolts in $3 MILLION scheme that had an army of hoax staffers and dummy offices including one near Buckingham Palace
Leading
US airlines including Delta and United, along with others around the world,
have grounded aircraft after engines were fitted with bogus parts
The
company which supplied the parts, AOG Technics, is suspected of falsifying
safety papers and creating hoax LinkedIn accounts for fake employees
London-based
AOG, which also used a 'virtual' office near Buckingham Palace, is now facing
legal action
By LEWIS PENNOCK FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
|
A company accused of selling bogus
jet-engine parts which have been used in aircraft across the globe was started
in the UK by a shadowy businessman who allegedly promoted the business with
faked LinkedIn profiles and a 'virtual' office near Buckingham
Palace.
AOG Technics supplied parts that have
been used in at
least 126 commercial aircraft engines in planes operated by companies including Delta and United.
But the parts were allegedly backed up by forged paperwork and dozens of
aircraft have been grounded for urgent maintenance.
A lawsuit has now been filed in the UK against AOG
Technics and it has emerged the company is also believed to have engaged in a
number of suspicious practices - including building a fake online presence to
promote itself.
Parts were sold to other companies which airlines
use for aircraft maintenance. They have then made it into commercial planes
used to carry potentially millions of passengers.
More
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Record chicken prices squeeze US shoppers, benefit Tyson
Foods
By Tom Polansek October 5, 202311:40 AM GMT+1
CHICAGO, Oct 5
(Reuters) - Chicken prices at U.S. grocery stores have hit record highs and
should stay elevated as Tyson Foods and other companies dial back poultry
production to boost margins while inflation-weary shoppers buy chicken instead
of beef and pork.
Higher
chicken prices should improve earnings at top producers Tyson (TSN.N) and Pilgrim's
Pride (PPC.O), but will pinch
consumers' pockets as they try to save money by turning away from higher-end
proteins. One index shows chicken producer profit margins at their highest in a
year.
U.S.
consumption of chicken is expected to exceed 100 pounds per person this year
for the first time ever, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows.
Beef
consumption is forecast to drop to its lowest since 2018, as prices climb due
to dwindling cattle supplies. Meanwhile, consumer spending cuts have knocked
pork consumption to the lowest since 2015.
Arkansas-based
Tyson, which sells all three types of meat, had to deal with a glut of chicken
after earning massive profits when meat prices soared during the COVID-19
pandemic.
The
company announced
the closures of six U.S. chicken plants
with nearly 4,700 employees this year to reduce costs. Its chicken business
likely returned to profitability in the quarter ended Sept. 30 after two
quarters of operating losses, analysts said.
Tightening
supplies now favor producers' bottom lines.
U.S. facilities
that hatch chicken eggs placed about 2.8% fewer eggs in incubators in the six
weeks ending on Sept. 23, compared to a year earlier, according to U.S.
government data. That was a sharp turnaround from the same period in 2022, when
hatcheries set 3.6% more eggs in incubators.
Chicken
producers placed about 2.7% fewer chicks for meat production over the six weeks
through Sept. 23 from a year earlier, when there was a 4.5% increase.
Cumulative placements for 2023 dropped below last year around the end of May,
U.S. data shows.
"They
cut back," said Bob Brown, an independent livestock market analyst.
"That seems to have buoyed the chicken market."
An index of chicken
prices and feed prices that reflects profitability for poultry producers in
September hit its highest level in more than a year, said Brown, who maintains
the index. Declining feed costs help producers improve margins, and corn prices
are near the lowest in three years.
Chicken
companies sought to constrain the weights of birds this summer as part of
"efforts to limit production and restore profitability," Rabobank
said. Lighter birds produce less meat for consumers.
In August,
retail prices for whole fresh chickens and bone-in legs reached nominal
records, the latest monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Drumstick
prices climbed 10% from a nearly one-year low reached in February.
Wholesale
prices have also rebounded.
The U.S.
government last month trimmed its estimate for 2023 chicken production from
August due in part to expectations for lower chick placements. Production is
still expected to surpass 2022.
More
Record chicken prices squeeze US shoppers, benefit
Tyson Foods | Reuters
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
CDC Journal and Five Others Rejected Key Paper
on COVID Vaccines and Heart Inflammation
The
paper presented the first challenge to the CDC's risk-benefit analysis for
children.
10/3/2023 Updated: 10/3/2023
Six medical
journals rejected a key paper on COVID-19 vaccines and heart inflammation, a
condition the vaccines cause, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch
Times.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC)'s journal, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
(MMWR), was one of them.
CDC officials
falsely told the paper's authors that the paper did not add anything to a
previously published CDC report, which estimated more COVID-19 hospitalizations
would be prevented than cases of heart inflammation, or myocarditis, caused.
"I ran
this by the MMWR lead editorial staff members; they felt that while the report
was interesting, they did not feel that there was anything that was not already
relayed," Dr. Jacqueline Gindler, one of the officials, said in an Aug.
10, 2021, email.
The CDC a month earlier in a
non-peer-reviewed paper estimated that among
males aged 12 to 17, one million second Pfizer doses would cause up to 69
myocarditis cases but prevent some 5,700 COVID-19 cases and 215 COVID-19
hospitalizations.
The new paper
clarified the risk-benefit calculus by separating children without serious
underlying conditions such as obesity from children with one or more of the
problems. It broke down the age group into two parts, 12- to 15 and 16- to 17.
And it subtracted incidental hospitalizations, or hospitalizations where people
test positive for COVID-19 but are actually being treated for other conditions.
The researchers estimated, using similar methods as
the CDC, that one million doses would cause more cardiac adverse events in
healthy boys than COVID-19 hospitalizations prevented. Among boys aged 12 to 15
without comorbidities, they calculated up to 6.1 times more adverse events
among the vaccinated.
Both the CDC and the new paper utilized reports to
the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which the CDC co-manages.
Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, one of the paper's co-authors,
said that the CDC's position that the paper did not add anything "was
laughable."
"What we added was stratification for non
high-risk vs high-risk children, which was new," Dr. Hoeg told The Epoch
Times in an email. "We also reported a higher rate in 12-17 year olds than
CDC had been reporting in males after dose two. Finally we removed incidental
COVID-19 hospitalizations, when estimating potential vaccine benefits, which
CDC had not been doing up to that point."
---- Five
other journals also rejected the paper, which was crafted after the CDC finally acknowledged vaccines
likely cause myocarditis.
The New England Journal of Medicine
dismissed the paper after having peers review it. One reviewer falsely said
that with pre-pandemic myocarditis, adolescents were not known to experience
lingering cardiac problems. In fact, deaths and a serious condition called
dilated cardiomyopathy have been documented in
such patients. Another reviewer said that a major concern was the social
consequences of publishing the paper. A third falsely said most
post-vaccination cases do not require hospitalization, asserting that offering
a risk-benefit analysis based on hospitalization was inappropriate.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
As EV sales surge and cars get heavier, parking garages
will have to change
PUBLISHED TUE, OCT 3 2023 1:15 AM
EDT
Driving is changing. Today, hybrids and pure
electric vehicles are a common sight around the world, and the overall size and
heft of cars — whether they’re fully electric or use internal combustion engines — is increasing.
From the accessibility of
EV charging points to noise levels, new
designs and technologies have already created a range of issues that will need
to be addressed in the years ahead.
Parking garages (known as multistory car parks in
the U.K.) are one area where the proliferation of EVs and bigger vehicles is
expected to have a major impact.
Earlier this year, the London-based Institution of
Structural Engineers published updated design guidance for car parks.
The wide-ranging document covers all structures
where cars can be parked — including those on multiple levels, underground or
within residential and office buildings — and how they are designed, built and
maintained. The guidance has been written for all stakeholders involved in car
park design.
One potential issue relates to the load of what we
drive. According to the institution, the average vehicle’s weight has increased
from 1.5 metric tons in 1974 to nearly 2 metric tons in 2023.
In a statement, it said the reason behind the weight increase was “due to
electric and hybrid batteries and the size of cars increasing.”
“This extra load and the changing fire safety
requirements are all considerations not just for new car parks, but for
existing structures too,” it added.
Speaking to CNBC, Chris Whapples, a fellow of the
institution and contributor to the guidance as an author and overseeing
consultant, said some of the market’s top-end executive cars and long-range
SUVs were now coming in at over three metric tons.
When the guidance was released in June, there was
much focus on the potential collapse of some car parks under the weight of
heavier vehicles.
“It is something we have to consider, but we
mustn’t be too alarmist about it,” Whapples told CNBC.
“The thing to bear in mind is that the ones that
cause the damage, if you like, are the heavy vehicles — not the vehicles that
are heavier than they were 40 years ago but still within the capacity of the
design for car parks,” he went on to explain.
The latter type of vehicles are still in the
majority, he said. Nevertheless, the trend for bigger vehicles shows no sign of
letting up.
“We’re seeing increasing numbers now of SUVs,
large executive cars — both fossil-fueled and battery ones — and pickup trucks,
which are immensely heavy.”
More
As EV sales surge and cars get heavier, parking
garages have to change (cnbc.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Approx. 14 minutes.
Giovanni
Punto - Horn Concerto No.11 in E-major
Giovanni Punto - Horn Concerto No.11 in E-major -
YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 13 minutes.
No
One Will Play the Najdorf Ever Again! || Carlsen vs Keymer || ECC (2023)
No One Will Play the Najdorf Ever Again! || Carlsen vs
Keymer || ECC (2023) - YouTube
This
weekend the maths update. Approx. 7 minutes.
The
Mystery Of The 0th Root
The Mystery Of The 0th Root - YouTube
I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There
can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the
stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never
forgotten that.
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