Baltic Dry Index. 1563 -99 Brent Crude 89.31
Spot Gold 2001 US 2 Year Yield 4.99 -0.03
Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "Account Overdrawn."
Ayn Rand.
A big difficult week ahead. Will Israel’s war on Hamas force Iran, Turkey, Syria and Lebanon into a wider war? America?
Oil punters think not. Gold punters, on the other hand think it’s a 50:50 bet, but with the US Federal deficit totally out of control, any wider war might bring about the end of the petro-dollar. It’s safer to have a little gold insurance here.
In the stock casinos, it’s a bid difficult week ahead too.
How to dress up the month-end stock indexes? What will the Fed and BOE do with their key interest rates? The betting on both is that they daren’t do anything.
The US Treasury gets to announce it’s 4th
quarter Treasury auctions and give guidance on Q1 24.
Asia markets
mixed ahead of Japan’s BOJ decision and South Korea inflation this week
UPDATED SUN, OCT 29 2023 9:51 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets started the week mixed ahead of a week of key economic data from around
the region.
Monetary policy
decisions from Japan and Malaysia, inflation data from South Korea, and gross
domestic growth figures from Taiwan and Hong Kong are the regional highlights
of the week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid
1.03% as the Bank of Japan starts its two-day monetary policy meeting, while
the Topix lost 0.89% in the morning session.
In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi was
up 0.35%, and the small-cap Kosdaq saw a larger gain of 1.25%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.55%, as the country saw a faster than expected rise in its September retail
sales.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.4% while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index was up marginally.
On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes ended the
day mixed, with the S&P
500 entering correction territory as renewed selling occurred
on Wall Street on fears of a recession.
The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
1.12%, while the S&P
500 slipped 0.48%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite held
0.38% higher to 12,643.01, thanks to Amazon beating
analysts’ expectations for revenue and earnings in the third quarter.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates. Bank of Japan meeting starts (cnbc.com)
Stock futures rebound slightly with the S&P
500 mired in a correction ahead of a big week
UPDATED SUN, OCT 29 2023 6:48 PM
EDT
U.S. stock futures opened higher slightly ahead
of a big week filled with a Federal Reserve rate decision, jobs report and
Apple’s earnings report.
S&P
500 futures added
0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained
0.4%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures were
up 0.1%.
The S&P 500 fell into
correction territory last week, shedding 2.5% for the week to put it down by
10.6% from its 2023 high. The benchmark is off 4% for October, on pace for its
third-straight negative month which would be its first such streak since 2020
as the pandemic struck.
The Federal Reserve decision
looms on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to hold its
benchmark interest rate at the same level. With surging interest rates as the
main culprit of this stock market correction, investors will be hoping the Fed
signals it could be done raising rates. Traders expect the Fed to be done
raising rates at least for 2023.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped
above 5% to start last week, but finished at 4.84%. Friday will bring the
October jobs report with investors hoping for some slowing in the labor market
that will allow the Fed to feel comfortable with staying on hold the rest of
the year.
Apple will report earnings
Thursday after the bell. The S&P 500′s largest member is in a correction
itself, down 15% from its 52-week high.
The sell-off has been centered
around Nasdaq and tech shares, which investors deem would be hurt the most by
surging interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite is off more than 12% from its 2023
high, firmly in correction territory. The Nasdaq and Dow, along with the
S&P 500, are headed for their third-straight negative month. Disappointing
earning recently out of the Big Tech FANG stocks, like Google-parent Alphabet,
have added to the sell-off.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
US Treasury seen
boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens
October
29, 2023 11:45 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The U.S.
Treasury is likely to boost the size of auctions for bills, notes, and bonds in
the fourth quarter when it announces its financing plans this week to fund a
worsening budget deficit, analysts said.
Investors are playing close attention
to this week's quarterly refunding announcement as a sharp jump in long-term
Treasury yields has been partly attributed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal
deficit. Since the end of July, the 10-year yield has climbed more than 100
basis points.
"The market has associated the
rise in Treasury yields with deficit concerns and reflects worries about the
sustainability of those deficits," said Guneet Dhingra, managing director
and head of U.S. rates strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York.
The budget deficit is increasing due
to several factors, including higher federal government borrowing costs arising
from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases and quantitative tightening.
Analysts at TD Securities expect the
deficit to expand to $1.85 trillion in 2024 from $1.69 trillion this year and
projects another $677 billion of bills that mature in a year or less coming to
market and about $1.7 trillion in notes and bonds. So far this year, the
Treasury has issued about $1.6 trillion of additional bills and roughly $1.04
trillion in longer-term debt.
The spotlight will also be on Monday's
announcement of borrowing estimates for the fourth quarter and the first
quarter of 2024. It was the announcement on July 31 of $1.007 trillion in
funding needs for the third quarter that spooked the bond market, leading to
the sharp increase in auction volumes.
The Treasury will release its quarterly
borrowing requirements on Monday at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) and its refunding news
on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT).
The Treasury is also likely to
announce a buyback program for a possible launch in January, aimed at improving
bond market liquidity, analysts said. The last time it conducted a regular
buyback program was in the early 2000s, and it ended in April 2002.
SKEWING SHORT-END
The latest refunding could see the
Treasury skew issuance to the shorter-term bills, while the increase at the
long end could shrink due to concerns about the impact of additional supply on
long-term yields, analysts said.
That would be a divergence from the
August refunding when the Treasury aggressively raised the auction sizes for
notes and bonds, which have longer maturities, after largely relying on the
sale of short-term bills to raise its cash holdings and finance its growing
deficit amid the debt ceiling suspension in June.
Morgan Stanley's Dhingra, who expects
the Treasury to rely on T-bills to finance its budget needs, said such a move
could push the percentage of T-bills as a share of outstanding U.S. debt to
around 22%. That is slightly higher than the 15% to 20% range adopted by the
Treasury.
More
US Treasury seen boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens | Reuters
Finally, China’s failing/failed property
company Evergrande has until December 4th to come up with a miracle.
Evergrande
shares fall 20% to all-time low as court adjourns winding-up hearing
Shares of embattled Chinese property Evergrande hit
an all-time low of 18.8 Hong Kong cents (2.4 U.S. cents) after a Hong Kong
judge delayed the court hearing to address a winding-up petition.
Evergrande’s shares plunged over
20% from last Friday’s close of 23.6 Hong Kong cents to the all-time low early
Monday, before recovering slightly to 22.2 Hong Kong cents.
Reuters reported that Justice Linda Chan
from Hong Kong’s High Court pushed back the hearing from Oct. 30 to Dec. 4,
which would be the last before a decision is made on the winding up order.
Evergrande must come up with a revised
restructuring proposal before that date, or the company will likely to be wound
up, she said.
Back in June 2022, Top Shine, an
investor in Evergrande unit Fangchebao, filed a winding-up petition against the
property firm, according to filings from Hong Kong’s High Court, but in light
of Evergrande’s restructuring, the petition was put on hold.
This new development is the latest blow to the
firm that was at one time China’s largest private sector developer by sales.
In late September, Evergrande
revealed that its director
and executive chairman was under scrutiny over suspected
crimes.
Hui Ka Yan “has been subject to
mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of illegal
crimes,” Evergrande said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Before that, Evergrande also delayed
a debt restructuring meeting and announced the sales of the group fell
below what it had expected since its March debt restructuring announcement.
More
Evergrande shares at all-time low as court adjourns winding-up hearing (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UAW's record deal
could boost others' wages as labor notches another victory
October 30, 2023 5:07 AM GMT
Oct 30 (Reuters)
- The tentative agreement reached between the United Auto Workers and two of
the Detroit Three automakers marks another victory for labor unions that have
turned up the pressure on big corporations to put better deals on the table.
Unions have
taken an aggressive approach to campaigning with a series of high-profile
battles across the industrial, auto, entertainment and healthcare industries.
Experts say gains won by unions could spur more organizing and motivate
non-unionized companies to try to stave off those efforts.
The
UAW's talks, replete with weekly addresses by union President Shawn Fain, were
among the most unabashed. The union has come to tentative agreements with Ford
Motor (F.N) and
Chrysler parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI); talks with General
Motors (GM.N) are
still ongoing.
"This is a
set of negotiations, historically, where gains made in Detroit would be viewed
and adapted by many other industries across the economy," said Harley
Shaiken, labor professor at the University of California, Berkley.
Union worker
compensation has finally caught up to non-union wage increases dating from the
COVID-19 pandemic, according to U.S. federal data, as the labor market has
remained tight with unemployment at just 3.8%.
The
tentative Ford and Stellantis deals will amount to total pay hikes of more than
33% when compounding and cost-of-living increases are factored in. The
agreements may be a selling point for non-union shops to push for unionization,
said San Francisco State University labor and employment professor John Logan.
Nissan (7201.T) and
other competitors may feel compelled to boost wages to retain their workforce.
"The Big
Three would want the UAW to organize Tesla," he added.
Public
support for unions has helped engagement in traditionally unionized industries
such as manufacturing and healthcare. A Reuters poll showed the
majority of Americans stand behind striking workers.
Employee-led
unionization efforts at retailers, such as Amazon (AMZN.O) and Starbucks (SBUX.O), have reflected a
consensus among workers who see unions as a means to secure better wages and
working conditions.
Organization
has been difficult in recent years. About 11.3% of workers were represented by
unions last year compared with 23.6% in 1982, according to data analyzed by the Economic
Policy Institute.
More
UAW's
record deal could boost others' wages as labor notches another victory |
Reuters
Five Ways Americans Keep Proving Economists Wrong
A
mix of job security, high savings and skepticism about the future are keeping
U.S. consumers’ wallets open
Oct. 29, 2023 5:30 am ET
Americans’ prolonged spending spree has confounded
economists and resulted in a surging
U.S. economy. What’s keeping their feet off the brakes?
A strong labor market, resilient savings stockpiles
and rising values of their homes have consumers feeling good and willing to
spend. Despite complaints about high prices, they are taking
their children to concerts, packing
movie theaters, booking luxury vacations, buying
cars and covering the costs of rent and dinners out.
Strong
spending caused economists to be wrong about a 2023
recession, though they still predict cutbacks ahead.
There
are signs that Americans’ elevated spending habits aren’t sustainable. Some 60%
of Americans said they have fallen behind on emergency savings this year,
according to a Bankrate survey. In September, they saved 3.4% of their income,
about half the rate they saved in the fall of 2019, the Commerce Department
said. And long-term
interest rates—which make it more expensive to buy homes and cars and to
borrow money—may only now be reaching the point where they will slow Americans’
roll.
Nevertheless,
many of the factors that have driven the 2023 spending binge remain intact.
Here’s a look at why people are keeping their wallets open for now.
Americans are feeling rightfully confident about
their job prospects and paychecks.
Cody McLaughlin is reaping the benefits of doubling
his salary over the past three years to roughly $130,000. His decision to stay
at the digital advertising company he had been with for four years, when many
of his colleagues were leaving, resulted in two raises and permission to move
to Alaska as long as he lived an hour from an airport.
“When so many people quit at the same time, I
actually saw an increase in my value to the company,” McLaughlin said.
More
Five Ways Americans Keep Proving Economists Wrong -
WSJ
BOE Likely to Highlight Recession Risk Ahead of Next
UK Election
Sun, 29 October 2023 at 6:00 am GMT·
The Bank of England this week is likely
to forecast a bleak period for the UK economy in the months leading up to the
next general election, adding to worries for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
government.
The central bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee is set to revise down its estimates for gross domestic product in the
second half of this year and early 2024 after surveys and official data pointed
to an increased risk of a recession.
A downgrade from the relatively
stagnant pace of growth the BOE expected in August would increases the chances
of a recession in the coming months. That would be problematic for Sunak, who
must call an election before the end of January 2024.
The Conservative Party is currently
trailing Labour in polls and has suffered resounding defeats in recent
by-elections. Efforts by Sunak to cut government expenditure and ease burdens
on business — such as by rowing back on net zero pledges and axing part of
Britain’s HS2 rail network — have done little to boost his popularity or stir
growth.
What Bloomberg Economics Says ...
“GDP growth has been weaker, the
unemployment rate is higher and pay growth is finally easing across all gauges.
Financial markets have responded to the recent flow of news by pricing in a
smaller-than-50% chance that interest rates reach 5.5%, having seen a peak
expectation of over 6% in the summer.”
The BOE’s forecasts, rather than the
Bank’s interest rate decision, will take center stage on Thursday, as both
investors and economists widely expect the MPC to keep the key rate at 5.25%
for a second consecutive meeting. The outlook also is likely to point toward an
increase in unemployment to around 5% in the coming months, up from a 50-year
low of 3.5% reached last year.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, after
pushing up interest rates to the highest since 2008, has signaled that
borrowing costs won’t be able to fall until inflation is well under control.
Britain has the worst inflation problem in the Group of Seven, with prices
rising at more than triple the 2% target.
Money markets have recently pared
bets on further monetary-policy tightening following signals from the the
European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve that rate hikes may have already
peaked. That’s lowered the chance of a final BOE quarter-point hike by early
next year to around 40% based on swaps tied to policy-meeting dates, while two
cuts of 25 basis points each are expected by the end of 2024.
“We see limited likelihood of further
hikes being required,” wrote Moyeen Islam, a rates strategist at Barclays Plc,
saying the monetary policy report will likely signal policy makers are content
with the current level of rates.
More
BOE Likely to Highlight Recession Risk Ahead of Next
UK Election (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
mRNA COVID
Vaccines Form Spike Protein in Heart Cells, but Cause Different Anomalies:
Research Article
New
research observing rat and human heart cells shows that within 48 hours of
vaccination, the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines form spike proteins.
10/22/2023 Updated: 10/25/2023
New research out
of Germany observing rat and human heart cells shows that within 48 hours of
vaccination, the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines form spike proteins.
Spike proteins,
made from the mRNA instructions inside the vaccines, were detected in the heart
cells. While both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines caused cell abnormalities, the
two induced different anomalies.
The different
responses the cells had to the two mRNA vaccines suggest an mRNA toxicity
reaction in these cells, according to Dr. Peter McCullough, a leading
internist, cardiologist, and epidemiologist who has published over 1,000
research reports and is the lead author of one of the first widely utilized
treatment regimens for SARS-CoV-2 patients. He added that 48 hours was a short
amount of time to observe this.
"The findings support both
the diagnosis and treatment of cardiac events following mRNA-based COVID
vaccination," the authors wrote, adding that the findings may explain
persistent cardiac symptoms among long-COVID patients.
The paper is a rapid communication paper,
meaning it is a shorter scientific paper published more quickly than a standard
research article. Scientists tend to use this format
when they have findings that need to be shared immediately with the academic
community.
Not Classic Presentations of Myocarditis
The paper's authors introduced mRNA
vaccinations to cell cultures made from rat and human heart cells.
Moderna and
Pfizer vaccines each have different doses of mRNA, with Moderna having a higher
dose of 100 micrograms compared to Pfizer's 30 micrograms. Therefore, the
researchers administered 100 micrograms of mRNA for both groups.
Within 48 hours,
researchers detected spike proteins in both cell cultures and noticed
abnormalities in heart contractions.
The researchers
recorded heart contractions in a supplementary video, comparing normal
contractions in an unvaccinated rat heart cell (1A) with vaccinated cells.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
EV Skeptic Toyota
Chairman Says People Are 'Finally' Waking Up to Reality of Electric Vehicles
The
chairman of Toyota said that falling demand for electric vehicles is a sign
people are waking up to the reality that EVs are overhyped and have drawbacks.
10/26/2023 Updated: 10/27/2023
Toyota's
chairman and former CEO, Akio Toyoda, told reporters at an auto show in Japan
this week that waning demand for electric vehicles (EV) is a sign that people
are waking up to the reality that EVs aren't the silver bullet against the
supposed ills of carbon emissions they're often made out to be.
"People are finally seeing
reality" about EV technology, Mr. Toyoda told reporters ahead of the Japan
Mobility Show in Tokyo this week, speaking in his capacity as the head of the
Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, the organizer of the event.
Mr. Toyoda, a
long-time skeptic of a full-steam-ahead adoption of EVs, stepped down from his
role as CEO of Toyota this year amid criticism that he wasn't serious enough
about pushing the company into a quick adoption of battery-powered cars.
Asked by
reporters at the auto show on his thoughts about falling EV demand, Mr.
Toyoda's response implied that he feels vindicated in his reluctance.
"There are
many ways to climb the mountain that is achieving carbon neutrality," he
said while suggesting that consumers are finally waking up from a dreamscape
pushed by climate change alarmists that puts EVs on a pedestal and overhypes
their benefits while downplaying their drawbacks.
His remarks came
as demand growth for EVs in various markets has slowed, leading some companies
to dial back their electrification plans.
Market research
firm Canalys estimates that global sales of EVs rose 49 percent in the first
half of this year, down from last year's 63 percent pace of growth.
Honda and General
Motors announced on Wednesday that they were scrapping a $5 billion plan to
develop EVs together, while GM said on Tuesday that it was slowing its
electrification strategy.
----Ford said
earlier this month that it would temporarily cut one of three shifts at a plant
that builds its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck after slowing its EV
ramp-up in July.
"EV demand
next year could be lower than expectations," Lee Chang-sil, chief
financial officer at South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution said on
Wednesday, per Reuters.
More
Volkswagen
sticks to EV targets and pricing despite knock to demand
October
27. 2023
BERLIN (Reuters)
-Volkswagen is working to cut costs and sticking with its electric vehicle
prices despite reductions at some rivals, as the German automaker aims to
rebuild margins after quarterly profits were hit by bad bets on raw material
prices.
----EV
DEMAND
Volkswagen
joined a chorus of carmakers and analysts warning in recent days that demand
for electric vehicles (EV) is not developing as expected, with the German
group's own order intake for EVs down to 150,000 in Europe from 300,000 last
year.
More
Volkswagen
sticks to EV targets and pricing despite knock to demand (msn.com)
You have to
choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the
natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the
Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as
the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.
George Bernard
Shaw.
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