Thursday, 19 October 2023

More War. Moscow 1812.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2105 +47            Brent Crude  91.14

Spot Gold 1948                  US 2 Year Yield 5.19  unch.

For more on Napoleon’s disastrous retreat from Moscow scroll down to today’s final section.

Despite a massive US spin operation underway in the media to portray President Biden’s fleeting Israeli visit a triumph, the reality is he was snubbed by the Arabs, got a photo op with a man most Israelis, according to the latest polls, think ought to resign as Prime Minister.

He also got a promise of 20 humanitarian relief trucks to enter Gaza, possibly on Friday. Small beer for the man heading up the world’s only superpower and the leader of the world’s democracies.  From Asia to South America, no amount of spin can make much difference to the perception of declining US leadership. He came, he saw, he left.

In the stock casinos, more damage from rising interest rates and worry that the new war on terror in the Middle East will end in sharply higher oil prices.

 

Asia markets fall across the board; Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea fall almost 2%

UPDATED WED, OCT 18 2023 11:57 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets saw a wide sell off, with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong markets seeing losses of about 2% each.

This also mirrors moves on Wall Street overnight as U.S. Treasury yields jumped to multiyear highs, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.9% for the first time since 2007. 

Meanwhile, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8%, the highest level since 2000.

Japan recorded a higher than expected trade surplus of 62.4 billion yen ($416.6 million) for September, while data from Australia showed its unemployment rate fell to 3.6% last month.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.66%, erasing all the gains it’s made this week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also tumbled 1.91%, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 1.47% after the trade data was released.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.84%, with the Kosdaq plunging 2.63% as the Bank of Korea kept its interest rates steady at 3.5% for the sixth time in a row.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also lost 1.96%, while China’s CSI 300 index shed 1.62%.

On Wednesday in the U.S., all three major indexes tumbled, with none of them in positive territory at any point during the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.98%, or over 300 points. The S&P 500 slid 1.34%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.62%.

Asia stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed as traders look ahead to key Fed Chair Powell speech: Live updates

UPDATED WED, OCT 18 2023 8:34 PM EDT

Stock futures oscillated near the flat line Wednesday evening.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 14 points, or 0.04%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.03%, while S&P 500 futures were little changed.

In after-hours trading, electric vehicle juggernaut Tesla slid 4% after the company missed expectations on earnings and revenue in the third quarter. Tesla posted adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share on revenue of $23.35 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated earnings of 73 cents per share on revenue of $24.1 billion.

Elsewhere, Netflix shares popped nearly 13% in extended trading after the streaming giant posted third-quarter profit of $3.73 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of $3.49 per share, according to LSEG.

During Wednesday’s regular trading, stocks sold off sharply as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs. The yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 4.9%, touching its highest level in 16 years. In turn, the S&P 500 tumbled 1.3%, while the 30-stock Dow shed more than 330 points, or 0.98%. The Nasdaq Composite was the underperformer, off 1.6%.

Interest rates will be back in focus Thursday as traders look ahead to a key speech at noon ET from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Even as inflation numbers have been showing signs of improvement, Treasury yields’ continued climb is raising questions on how the central bank may proceed on monetary policy.

Other economic data on deck include weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for September.

A slate of regional banks will report quarterly results Thursday, including KeyCorp, Fifth Third and Truist Financial. American Airlines, Union Pacific and CSX are also slated to post earnings.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In Middle East war news, there was little positive news yesterday.

 

US vetoes UN Security Council action on Israel, Gaza

By Michelle Nichols 

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The United States vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution on Wednesday that would have called for humanitarian pauses in the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants to allow humanitarian aid access to the Gaza Strip.

 

The vote on the Brazilian-drafted text was twice delayed in the last couple of days as the United States tries to broker aid access to Gaza. Twelve members voted in favor of the draft text on Wednesday, while Russia and Britain abstained.

More

US vetoes UN Security Council action on Israel, Gaza | Reuters

Israel's endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza

By Samia NakhoulMatt Spetalnick and Alexander Cornwell

DUBAI/WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.

Codenamed "Operation Swords of Iron", the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas's assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

 

The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza's infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave's people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.

Israeli officials have said that they don't have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.

Some of U.S. President Joe Biden's aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.

Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.

Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn't set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.

"Israel doesn't have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after," said one regional security source.

An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children - a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.

The "vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas", he said. "Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people."

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden's visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.

More

Israel's endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza | Reuters

Egypt's Sisi rejects transfer of Gazans, discusses aid with Biden

By Nayera AbdallahNadine Awadalla and Mohamed Wali

CAIRO, Oct 18 (Reuters) - President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Wednesday that Egyptians in their millions would reject the forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, adding that any such move would turn the Egyptian peninsula into a base for attacks against Israel.

Later, following a phone call between Sisi and U.S. President Joe Biden, a White House spokesman said about 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid would enter Gaza from Egypt's Sinai Peninsula in the coming days.

White House spokesman John Kirby said the road needed some repairs first, and that he hoped more trucks would follow. The Egyptian presidency said it was agreed that aid should be provided in a "sustainable manner".

Egypt has been trying to channel humanitarian relief to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, but aid has been piling up on the Egyptian side after Israeli bombardments made the crossing inoperable.

Egypt has been alarmed at the idea that Israel's unprecedented bombardment and siege of Gaza, home to 2.3 million people, could force its residents southwards into Sinai.

The Gaza Strip is effectively under Israeli control and Palestinians could instead be moved to Israel's Negev desert "till the militants are dealt with", Sisi told a joint press conference in Cairo with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

---- "What is happening now in Gaza is an attempt to force civilian residents to take refugee and migrate to Egypt, which should not be accepted," said Sisi.

"Egypt rejects any attempt to resolve the Palestinian issue by military means or through the forced displacement of Palestinians from their land, which would come at the expense of the countries of the region," he said.

Sisi said the Egyptian people would "go out and protest in their millions ... if called upon to do so" against any displacement of Gaza's residents to Sinai.

More

Egypt's Sisi rejects transfer of Gazans, discusses aid with Biden | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.   

ECB's Stournaras says Israel-Hamas conflict could have stagflationary impact in Europe – FT

October 18, 2023

(Reuters) - The war between Israel and Hamas could create new challenges for Europe's economy, from energy market disruption to an influx of refugees, European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras told the Financial Times on Wednesday.

Since the eurozone continues to be a large net energy importer, the conflict is "likely to have a stagflationary impact if it becomes a problem," the Greek central bank governor told the newspaper.

He said that the turmoil in the Middle East shifted the balance against any further tightening of monetary policy, the report said.

Crude oil prices spiked in the wake of a massive incursion into Israel from Gaza by a Palestinian Islamist group on Oct. 7.

Israel has vowed to annihilate the Hamas movement that rules Gaza, after Hamas fighters burst across the barrier to Israel, gunning down 1,300 Israelis, mainly civilians, in the deadliest day in the country's 75-year-old history.

ECB's Stournaras says Israel-Hamas conflict could have stagflationary impact in Europe - FT (msn.com)

UK inflation in shock pause at 6.7%

October 18, 2023

 

UK inflation remained at 6.7 per cent in September, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday morning.

The headline consumer prices index (CPI) measure had been predicted to fall slightly to 6.6 per cent from August by some economists.

However, an easing of food and drink price rises is thought to have been offset by higher petrol and diesel prices for motorists - in what could be seen as a blow for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Many had hoped for a fall in the measure to help ease the pressure on households already struggling with the cost of living.

In its report, the ONS said food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell by 0.1 per cent from August to September, compared to a rise of 1.1 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest drops in prices came from milk, cheese and eggs, mineral waters, soft drinks and juices.

There had also been a slowing down in the increase in prices of furniture and household goods compared to a year ago.

But the ONS also reported a 0.2 per cent rise in transport costs between August and September, compared to a fall of 1.7 per cent over the two months last year.

This increase, the body said, was almost entirely down to the rise in petrol and diesel, with the average price of petrol rising to 153.6p per litre in September. The average price of diesel rose to 157.4p per litre.

More

UK inflation in shock pause at 6.7% (msn.com)

UK economy in ‘horrible’ bind with no room for tax cuts as recession looms – IFS

October 17, 2023

The UK economy is in a “horrible fiscal bind” as it heads for recession and with no room to cut taxes or increase public spending amid mounting political pressure on the Chancellor to do so, according to a report.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned in its latest Green Budget that Britain will slump into a “moderate” recession in the first half of 2024 as borrowing costs stay elevated.

The report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation and using economic forecasting by Citi, analysed the challenges facing the Chancellor ahead of his autumn statement.

The IFS said there was little toom for tax cuts “any time soon”, based on the state of the nation’s public finances.

The price of our high levels of indebtedness, failure to stimulate growth, and high borrowing costs is likely to be a protracted period of high taxes and tight spending

Paul Johnson, IFS director

Taxes in the UK are heading to their highest level and tight public spending plans mean the Government is set to rake in the biggest surplus – meaning revenues above non-interest spending – in decades.

Government borrowing is also set to be around £20 billion lower this year than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in March.

But debt levels have soared as borrowing costs have gone up, and the inflation rate remains above target.

The UK is also expected to fall into a recession at the start of 2024 that lasts for nine months, according to analysis by Citi.

A recession is defined as two or more quarters of negative economic growth.

It forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 0.7% over 2024 due to weak corporate margins and higher interest rates.

More

UK economy in ‘horrible’ bind with no room for tax cuts as recession looms – IFS (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

 

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Only 2 Percent of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC

 

The CDC provided an update on the new vaccine was rolled out last month.

10/13/2023 Updated: 10/13/2023

About 2 percent of all Americans have received the updated COVID-19 booster shot after it was authorized and recommended by federal health officials several weeks ago, according to updated data provided by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

More than 7 million Americans have taken the updated shot, which is authorized for people aged 6 months and older, said an HHS spokesman. That's approximately 2 percent of all Americans.

“COVID-19 vaccine distribution, which has shifted to the private market, is a lot different than it was last year when the government was distributing them," said a spokesperson for HHS about the vaccination data. It added that the agency is "directly with manufacturers and distributors to ensure that the vaccines are getting to" various locations.

The statement added that 91 percent of Americans aged 12 years and older "can access the vaccine within 5 miles of where they live," adding that 14 million updated boosters for COVID-19 have been shipped to pharmacies and other locations. The vaccine was approved about a month ago by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before it was recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shortly thereafter.

It came as some people reported that it's difficult to find doses of the new vaccines at local pharmacies and doctors. Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, said on X in September that her vaccine appointment was canceled due to a lack of supply.

The 7 million figure is up since Oct. 6 when Dr. Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC, told reporters that 4 million had received the new vaccines.

More

Only 2 Percent of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

No technology update today. Today, 211 years ago Napoleon began his disastrous retreat from Moscow. Approx. 27 minutes.

Napoleon's Retreat from Moscow 1812

Napoleon's Retreat from Moscow 1812 - YouTube

 In his memoir, Napoleon's close adviser Armand de Caulaincourt recounted scenes of massive loss, and offered a vivid description of mass death through hypothermia:

The cold was so intense that bivouacking was no longer supportable. Bad luck to those who fell asleep by a campfire! Furthermore, disorganization was perceptibly gaining ground in the Guard. One constantly found men who, overcome by the cold, had been forced to drop out and had fallen to the ground, too weak or too numb to stand. Ought one to help them along—which practically meant carrying them. They begged one to let them alone. There were bivouacs all along the road—ought one to take them to a campfire? Once these poor wretches fell asleep they were dead. If they resisted the craving for sleep, another passer-by would help them along a little farther, thus prolonging their agony for a short while, but not saving them, for in this condition the drowsiness engendered by cold is irresistibly strong. Sleep comes inevitably, and sleep is to die. I tried in vain to save a number of these unfortunates. The only words they uttered were to beg me, for the love of God, to go away and let them sleep. To hear them, one would have thought sleep was their salvation. Unhappily, it was a poor wretch's last wish. But at least he ceased to suffer, without pain or agony. Gratitude, and even a smile, was imprinted on his discoloured lips. What I have related about the effects of extreme cold, and of this kind of death by freezing, is based on what I saw happen to thousands of individuals. The road was covered with their corpses.[157]

French invasion of Russia - Wikipedia

 

No comments:

Post a Comment