Baltic Dry Index. 2105 +47 Brent Crude 91.14
Spot Gold 1948 US 2 Year Yield 5.19 unch.
For more on Napoleon’s disastrous retreat from Moscow scroll down to today’s final section.
Despite a massive US spin operation underway in the media to portray President Biden’s fleeting Israeli visit a triumph, the reality is he was snubbed by the Arabs, got a photo op with a man most Israelis, according to the latest polls, think ought to resign as Prime Minister.
He also got a promise of 20 humanitarian relief trucks to enter Gaza, possibly on Friday. Small beer for the man heading up the world’s only superpower and the leader of the world’s democracies. From Asia to South America, no amount of spin can make much difference to the perception of declining US leadership. He came, he saw, he left.
In the stock casinos, more damage from rising
interest rates and worry that the new war on terror in the Middle East will end
in sharply higher oil prices.
Asia markets
fall across the board; Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea fall almost 2%
UPDATED WED, OCT 18 2023 11:57 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets saw a wide sell off, with
Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong markets seeing losses of about 2% each.
This also mirrors moves on Wall
Street overnight as U.S. Treasury yields jumped to multiyear highs, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above
4.9% for the first time since 2007.
Meanwhile, the average rate on
the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8%, the highest
level since 2000.
Japan recorded a higher than
expected trade surplus of 62.4 billion yen ($416.6
million) for September, while data from Australia showed its unemployment rate fell to 3.6% last
month.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
1.66%, erasing all the gains it’s made this week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 also
tumbled 1.91%, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 1.47% after the trade data
was released.
South Korea’s Kospi was
down 1.84%, with the Kosdaq plunging 2.63% as the Bank of Korea kept its interest rates steady at 3.5% for the
sixth time in a row.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also
lost 1.96%, while China’s CSI 300 index shed 1.62%.
On Wednesday in the U.S., all three major
indexes tumbled, with none of them in positive territory at any point during
the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
0.98%, or over 300 points. The S&P
500 slid 1.34%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
1.62%.
Asia
stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed as traders look
ahead to key Fed Chair Powell speech: Live updates
UPDATED WED, OCT 18 2023 8:34 PM
EDT
Stock futures oscillated near the flat line
Wednesday evening.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average slipped
14 points, or 0.04%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.03%, while S&P 500
futures were
little changed.
In after-hours trading, electric vehicle juggernaut Tesla slid
4% after the company missed
expectations on earnings and revenue in the third quarter.
Tesla posted adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share on revenue of $23.35
billion, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated earnings of 73 cents per
share on revenue of $24.1 billion.
Elsewhere, Netflix shares
popped nearly 13% in extended trading after the streaming giant posted
third-quarter profit of $3.73 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of
$3.49 per share, according to LSEG.
During Wednesday’s regular
trading, stocks sold off sharply as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 4.9%, touching its highest level in 16
years. In turn, the S&P 500 tumbled
1.3%, while the 30-stock Dow shed
more than 330 points, or 0.98%. The Nasdaq Composite was
the underperformer, off 1.6%.
Interest rates will be back in
focus Thursday as traders look ahead to a key
speech at noon ET from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Even as
inflation numbers have been showing signs of improvement, Treasury yields’
continued climb is raising questions on how the central bank may proceed on
monetary policy.
Other economic data on deck
include weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for September.
A slate of regional banks will
report quarterly results Thursday, including KeyCorp, Fifth Third and Truist
Financial. American Airlines, Union Pacific and CSX are also slated to post
earnings.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In Middle East war news, there was little
positive news yesterday.
US vetoes UN Security
Council action on Israel, Gaza
By Michelle Nichols October 18, 202311:01 PM GMT+1
UNITED
NATIONS, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The United States vetoed a United Nations Security
Council resolution on Wednesday that would have called for humanitarian pauses in the conflict between Israel and
Palestinian Hamas militants to allow humanitarian aid access to the
Gaza Strip.
The vote on the
Brazilian-drafted text was twice delayed in the last couple of days as the
United States tries to broker aid access to Gaza. Twelve members voted in favor
of the draft text on Wednesday, while Russia and Britain abstained.
More
US
vetoes UN Security Council action on Israel, Gaza | Reuters
Israel's endgame? No
sign of post-war plan for Gaza
By Samia Nakhoul, Matt Spetalnick and Alexander Cornwell
DUBAI/WASHINGTON,
Oct 18 (Reuters) - Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught
on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for
how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.
Codenamed
"Operation Swords of Iron", the military campaign will be unmatched
in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past,
according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the
conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Israel
has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been
bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas's assault on southern Israel on
Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.
The immediate
Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions
between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza's
infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the
enclave's people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up
the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its
operations.
Israeli officials
have said that they don't have a clear idea for what a post-war future might
look like, though.
Some of U.S.
President Joe Biden's aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an
effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an
exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.
Trips to Israel
by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this
past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the
source added.
Arab officials
are also alarmed that Israel hasn't set out a clear plan for the future of the
enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.
"Israel
doesn't have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs,
destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the
day after," said one regional security source.
An Israeli
invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have
already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children
- a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.
Biden,
on a visit to Israel on Wednesday,
told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned
that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.
The "vast
majority of Palestinians are not Hamas", he said. "Hamas does not
represent the Palestinian people."
Aaron David
Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
said Biden's visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader
Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of
force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.
More
Israel's
endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza | Reuters
Egypt's Sisi rejects
transfer of Gazans, discusses aid with Biden
By Nayera Abdallah, Nadine Awadalla and Mohamed Wali
CAIRO,
Oct 18 (Reuters) - President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Wednesday that
Egyptians in their millions would reject the forced displacement of
Palestinians into Sinai, adding that any such move would turn the Egyptian
peninsula into a base for attacks against Israel.
Later,
following a phone call between Sisi and U.S. President Joe Biden, a White House
spokesman said about 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid would enter Gaza from
Egypt's Sinai Peninsula in the coming days.
White House spokesman John Kirby said the road
needed some repairs first, and that he hoped more trucks would follow. The
Egyptian presidency said it was agreed that aid should
be provided in a "sustainable manner".
Egypt
has been trying to channel humanitarian relief to Gaza through the Rafah
crossing, but aid has been piling up on the Egyptian side after Israeli bombardments
made the crossing inoperable.
Egypt
has been alarmed at the idea that Israel's unprecedented bombardment and siege
of Gaza, home to 2.3 million people, could force its residents southwards into
Sinai.
The
Gaza Strip is effectively under Israeli control and Palestinians could instead
be moved to Israel's Negev desert "till the militants are dealt
with", Sisi told a joint press conference in Cairo with German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz.
----
"What is happening now in Gaza is an attempt to force civilian residents
to take refugee and migrate to Egypt, which should not be accepted," said
Sisi.
"Egypt
rejects any attempt to resolve the Palestinian issue by military means or
through the forced displacement of Palestinians from their land, which would
come at the expense of the countries of the region," he said.
Sisi
said the Egyptian people would "go out and protest in their millions ...
if called upon to do so" against any displacement of Gaza's residents to
Sinai.
More
Egypt's
Sisi rejects transfer of Gazans, discusses aid with Biden | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
ECB's Stournaras says
Israel-Hamas conflict could have stagflationary impact in Europe – FT
October 18, 2023
(Reuters) -
The war between Israel and Hamas could create new challenges for Europe's
economy, from energy market disruption to an influx of refugees, European
Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras told the Financial Times on
Wednesday.
Since the
eurozone continues to be a large net energy importer, the conflict is
"likely to have a stagflationary impact if it becomes a problem," the
Greek central bank governor told the newspaper.
He said that
the turmoil in the Middle East shifted the balance against any further
tightening of monetary policy, the report said.
Crude oil
prices spiked in the wake of a massive incursion into Israel from Gaza by a
Palestinian Islamist group on Oct. 7.
Israel has
vowed to annihilate the Hamas movement that rules Gaza, after Hamas fighters
burst across the barrier to Israel, gunning down 1,300 Israelis, mainly
civilians, in the deadliest day in the country's 75-year-old history.
UK inflation in shock pause at
6.7%
October
18, 2023
UK inflation remained at 6.7
per cent in September, according to figures released by the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday morning.
The headline consumer prices
index (CPI) measure had been predicted
to fall slightly to 6.6 per cent from August by some economists.
However, an easing of food
and drink price rises is thought to have been offset by higher
petrol and diesel prices for motorists -
in what could be seen as a blow for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
Many had hoped for a fall in the
measure to help ease the pressure on households already struggling with the
cost of living.
In its report, the ONS said food and
non-alcoholic drink prices fell by 0.1 per cent from August to September,
compared to a rise of 1.1 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
The largest drops in prices came from
milk, cheese and eggs, mineral waters, soft drinks and juices.
There had also been a slowing down in
the increase in prices of furniture and household goods compared to a year ago.
But the ONS also reported a 0.2 per
cent rise in transport costs between August and September, compared to a fall
of 1.7 per cent over the two months last year.
This increase, the body said, was
almost entirely down to the rise in petrol and diesel, with the average price
of petrol rising to 153.6p per litre in September. The average price of diesel
rose to 157.4p per litre.
More
UK inflation in shock pause at 6.7% (msn.com)
UK economy in ‘horrible’ bind
with no room for tax cuts as recession looms – IFS
October 17, 2023
The UK economy is in a
“horrible fiscal bind” as it heads for recession and with no room to cut taxes
or increase public spending amid mounting political pressure on the Chancellor to do so, according to a report.
The Institute for Fiscal
Studies (IFS) warned in its latest Green Budget that Britain will slump into a
“moderate” recession in the first half of 2024 as borrowing costs stay
elevated.
The report, funded by the
Nuffield Foundation and using economic forecasting by Citi, analysed the challenges facing the Chancellor ahead of
his autumn statement.
The IFS said there was little toom for tax cuts “any time
soon”, based on the state of the nation’s public finances.
The price of our high levels
of indebtedness, failure to stimulate growth, and high borrowing costs is
likely to be a protracted period of high taxes and tight spending
Paul Johnson, IFS director
Taxes in the UK are heading
to their highest level and tight public spending plans mean the Government is set to rake in the biggest surplus – meaning
revenues above non-interest spending – in decades.
Government borrowing is also
set to be around £20 billion lower this year than the Office for Budget
Responsibility (OBR) predicted in March.
But debt levels have soared
as borrowing costs have gone up, and the inflation rate remains above target.
The UK is
also expected to fall into a recession at the start of 2024 that lasts for nine
months, according to analysis by Citi.
A recession is defined as two
or more quarters of negative economic growth.
It forecasts gross domestic
product (GDP) to fall by 0.7% over 2024 due to weak corporate margins and
higher interest rates.
More
UK economy in ‘horrible’ bind with no room for tax
cuts as recession looms – IFS (msn.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Only 2 Percent
of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC
The
CDC provided an update on the new vaccine was rolled out last month.
10/13/2023 Updated: 10/13/2023
About 2 percent of all
Americans have received the updated COVID-19 booster shot after it was
authorized and recommended by federal health officials several weeks ago,
according to updated data provided by the Department of Health and Human
Services (HHS).
More than 7 million
Americans have taken the updated shot, which is authorized for people aged 6
months and older, said an HHS spokesman. That's approximately 2 percent of all
Americans.
“COVID-19 vaccine
distribution, which has shifted to the private market, is a lot different than
it was last year when the government was distributing them," said a
spokesperson for HHS about the vaccination data. It added that the agency is
"directly with manufacturers and distributors to ensure that the vaccines
are getting to" various locations.
The statement added that 91
percent of Americans aged 12 years and older "can access the vaccine
within 5 miles of where they live," adding that 14 million updated
boosters for COVID-19 have been shipped to pharmacies and other locations. The
vaccine was approved about a month ago by the Food and Drug Administration
(FDA) before it was recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) shortly thereafter.
It came as some people reported
that it's difficult to find doses of the new vaccines at local pharmacies and
doctors. Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation,
said on X in September that her vaccine appointment was canceled due to a lack
of supply.
The 7 million figure is up
since Oct. 6 when Dr. Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC, told reporters that 4
million had received the new vaccines.
More
Only 2 Percent of Americans Have Received New COVID Vaccine: CDC | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No technology update today. Today, 211
years ago Napoleon began his disastrous retreat from Moscow. Approx. 27
minutes.
Napoleon's
Retreat from Moscow 1812
Napoleon's Retreat from Moscow 1812 - YouTube
In his memoir,
Napoleon's close adviser Armand
de Caulaincourt recounted
scenes of massive loss, and offered a vivid description of mass death through
hypothermia:
The cold was
so intense that bivouacking was
no longer supportable. Bad luck to those who fell asleep by a campfire!
Furthermore, disorganization was perceptibly gaining ground in the Guard. One
constantly found men who, overcome by the cold, had been forced to drop out and
had fallen to the ground, too weak or too numb to stand. Ought one to help them
along—which practically meant carrying them. They begged one to let them alone.
There were bivouacs all along the road—ought one to take them to a campfire?
Once these poor wretches fell asleep they were dead. If they resisted the
craving for sleep, another passer-by would help them along a little farther,
thus prolonging their agony for a short while, but not saving them, for in this
condition the drowsiness engendered by cold is irresistibly strong. Sleep comes
inevitably, and sleep is to die. I tried in vain to save a number of these
unfortunates. The only words they uttered were to beg me, for the love of God,
to go away and let them sleep. To hear them, one would have thought sleep was
their salvation. Unhappily, it was a poor wretch's last wish. But at least he
ceased to suffer, without pain or agony. Gratitude, and even a smile, was imprinted
on his discoloured lips. What I have related about the effects of extreme cold,
and of this kind of death by freezing, is based on what I saw happen to
thousands of individuals. The road was covered with their corpses.[157]
French invasion
of Russia - Wikipedia
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