Monday 12 September 2022

US Inflation – Bull Or Bear?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1213 +35    Brent Crude 91.53

Spot Gold 1713          US 2 Year Yield 3.56 +0.08

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

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Coronavirus Cases 12/09/22 World 613,869,961

Deaths 6,516,684

Ordinary riches can be stolen; real riches cannot. In your soul are infinitely precious things that cannot be taken from you.

Oscar Wilde.

This week in the stock casinos, it’s all likely to depend on tomorrow’s US inflation numbers.

Good numbers will encourage the bulls into thinking the Chairman Powell and the Fed will blink sooner rather than later and stop raising interest rates.

Bad numbers will guarantee more large interest rate hikes to come.

However, by the end of the week, events in Ukraine might be trumping all other news, if reports of a Russian rout are correct.

Asia stocks rally, dollar restrained before inflation test

SYDNEY, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Asian share markets rallied on Monday on hopes a key reading on U.S. inflation will show some cooling, while the U.S. dollar was restrained by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intervention.

Holidays in China and South Korea made for slow trading, while traders were unsure what implications Ukraine's surprising success against Russian forces might have. read more

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.5%, having bounced modestly from a two-year low hit last week. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) added another 1.1%, after rallying 2% last week.

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) firmed 1.3% ahead of retail and industry data due later in the week that may show some improvement in August after a disappointing July.

Wall Street looked to extend Friday's bounce and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%.

Bulls are hoping Tuesday's reading on U.S. consumer prices will hint at a peak for inflation as falling petrol prices are seen pulling down the headline index by 0.1%, according to a Reuters poll.

The core is forecast to rise 0.3%, though some analysts see a chance of a softer report.

More

Asia stocks rally, dollar restrained before inflation test | Reuters

European stocks head for higher open as global markets await more U.S. inflation data

UPDATED MON, SEP 12 2022 12:21 AM EDT

European stocks are expected to open higher on Monday, following a positive trend set at the end of last week and overnight in Asia-Pacific markets.

Global markets are gearing up for the latest reading of U.S. inflation, with the August data set to be released Tuesday.

The report is one of the last pieces of data on inflation the U.S. Federal Reserve will see ahead of its September meeting, where the central bank is expected to deliver its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in an effort to combat high inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week that he is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation.

U.S. stock futures were flat Sunday night while shares in the Asia-Pacific rose in overnight trading on improved risk sentiment. Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea markets are closed for a holiday.

European stocks open to close, news data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Stock futures flat as Wall Street looks ahead to key inflation data

UPDATED SUN, SEP 11 2022 9:53 PM EDT

Stock futures were flat Sunday night as Wall Street looks ahead to key inflation data to be released this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 46 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.18%.

The moves came after a winning week for U.S. stocks, as all three major averages snapped a three-week losing streak. The Dow added 2.66% on the week, while the S&P 500 gained 3.65%. The Nasdaq Composite was 4.14% higher.

Stocks have been volatile ahead of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve, where the central bank is expected to deliver its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike in an effort to combat high inflation.

Wall Street investors had been looking for signs that the size of future rate hikes might be smaller as inflation cools off, Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week reiterated that he is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation.

This week, investors are looking ahead to the August consumer price index report, scheduled to be released Tuesday. The report is one of the last pieces of data on inflation the Fed will see ahead of its September meeting. Retail sales and industrial production reports will be released Thursday.

“With the expectation for another 0.3% increase in the core rate for August, if the number is higher this will be a negative for stocks and bonds. If the report is less, it will be a catalyst for a market rally,” David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth U.S. “Retail sales is also expected to be flat for the month of August, as it was for the prior month.”

Stock futures flat as Wall Street looks ahead to key inflation data (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Did US inflation ease again in August?

September 11, 2022

Did US inflation ease for the second month in a row?

Lower petrol prices should have helped slow the pace of inflation in the US in August for the second month in a row. But the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be swayed from implementing a steep interest rate rise later in September, as inflation remains well above its target with persistent growth in services prices.

 Economists polled by Reuters forecast that the US consumer price index fell 0.1 per cent month-on-month in August, after remaining flat in July. They expect a year-on-year reading of 8.1 per cent for August, down from 8.5 per cent a month earlier.

Lower energy prices were largely responsible for driving down inflation in July, and the same trend is likely to have continued the following month as petrol costs fell further.

 Some economists said that consumers have started to spend less on goods, while businesses have increased supply of their products to match demand, which may also contribute to a decrease in price growth.

 “Inflationary pressure on goods prices has clearly eased and some overheated prices, for example used cars, are starting to fall in absolute terms,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.

But despite the expected moderation in the August report, the Fed has still signalled that it will continue to tighten monetary policy, as inflation remains well above the central bank’s target. Chair Jay Powell and vice-chair Lael Brainard vowed last week to keep raising rates, fuelling expectations that a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase will be implemented later this month.

Demand for services has strengthened, which Marcelli said has caused more “persistent pressure” on this component of the consumer price index.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecast to have edged up 0.4 per cent month-on-month in August, following a reading of 0.3 per cent in July.

Housing costs are a large contributor to the services component of the index and shelter costs are expected to continue rising, led by rental price growth.

“The biggest single contribution to the month-to-month core CPI print will come from housing rents,” said Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Economics. “But we see a decent chance that the pace of rent increases has now peaked, though the uncertainty here is still great, given the unprecedented conditions in the rental market.” Alexandra White


Did UK inflation pick up pace in August?

UK inflation data for August are expected to offer no respite. Economists polled by Reuters forecast that the annual pace of consumer price growth accelerated from a 40-year high of 10.1 per cent in July to 10.4 per cent last month.

 A consumer price index reading at that level would confirm that the UK is the only G7 economy with a double-digit inflation rate. It would also intensify pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, having already implemented six consecutive increases to 1.75 per cent.

The inflation outlook for the UK and the rest of Europe worsened over the summer, reflecting surging European wholesale gas prices following a squeeze on Russian energy flows to the rest of the continent. Even before the gas price peaked in late August, the BoE had forecast that inflation would soar to 13 per cent in January, causing a prolonged economic recession.

However, the medium-term inflation forecast has been mitigated to an extent by an energy package announced last week by new UK prime minister Liz Truss, which included a freeze on average annual household energy bills at £2,500 over the next two years.

More

Did US inflation ease again in August? | Financial Times (ft.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

Scientists find COVID-19 antibodies that can make boosters unnecessary

Researchers at Tel Aviv University found two antibodies that neutralize all known strains of COVID-19 with up to 95% efficiency.

JUDY SIEGEL-ITZKOVICH

Published: SEPTEMBER 7, 2022 15:18 Updated: SEPTEMBER 7, 2022 19:20

In a major breakthrough in the battle with the COVID-19 pandemic, Tel Aviv University researchers have isolated two antibodies that neutralize all known strains of COVID-19 – including Omicron – with up to 95% efficiency and will strengthen the immune systems of people at risk.

 

Targeted treatment with antibodies and their delivery to the body in high concentrations may serve as an effective substitute for vaccines, especially for at-risk populations and those with weakened immune systems, according to the researchers. By using antibody treatment, there is a possibility that the need to provide repeated booster shots to the entire population every time a new variant emerges will be eliminated.

 

The research was led by Dr. Natalia Freund and doctoral students Michael Mor and Ruofan Lee of the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University’s Sackler Faculty of Medicine. The study was conducted in collaboration with Dr. Ben Croker of the University of California at San Diego. Also taking part in the study were Prof. Ye Xiang of Tsinghua University in Beijing, Prof. Meital Gal-Tanamy and Dr. Moshe Dessau of Bar-Ilan University.

 

The study was published in the journal Communications Biology under the title “Conformational flexibility in neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 by naturally elicited anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.”

The new research is a continuation of a preliminary study conducted in October 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, Freund and her colleagues sequenced all the B immune system cells from the blood of Israelis who had recovered from the original COVID strain and isolated nine antibodies that the patients produced. The researchers now found that some of these antibodies are very effective in neutralizing the new coronavirus variants, Delta and Omicron.

 

----“In the current study, we proved that two other antibodies named TAU-1109 and TAU-2310 that bind the viral spike protein in a different area from the region where most of the antibodies were concentrated until now (and were thus less effective in neutralizing the original strain) are actually very effective in neutralizing the Delta and Omicron variants.

 

“According to our findings, the effectiveness of the first antibody, TAU-1109, in neutralizing the Omicron strain is 92% and in neutralizing the Delta strain it is 90%. The second antibody, TAU-2310, neutralizes the Omicron variant with an efficacy of 84%, and the Delta variant with an efficacy of 97%,” said Freund.

 

More

Scientists find COVID-19 antibodies that can make boosters unnecessary - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

T-Omega re-thinks floating offshore wind turbines for huge cost savings

Loz Blain  September 08, 2022

All the world's greatest wind power resources are offshore – often a long way offshore, where the water's so deep that it's impractical to build typical fan-on-a-stick wind turbines with bases sunk deep into the sea floor. Floating wind, at this stage, is so vastly expensive to build, deploy and maintain that it ends up costing two to three times as much per kilowatt-hour of energy as fixed-bottom offshore installations.

There's a huge opportunity here for technological advancement, and companies like Norway's World Wide Wind are proposing some pretty radical ideas in the space. A lot of the energy cost comes down to the size, weight and materials involved in the structure of the turbine, along with the logistical issues and specialized equipment needed to build, install and maintain the things.

Boston startup T-Omega Wind says it's prototyped and tested a unique floating offshore wind turbine design that can withstand massive storms and hundred-foot waves, but at 20% the weight and around 30% the price of conventional designs – not to mention super-simple deployment and installation – unlocking an affordable way to exploit the world's best wind resources.

"All offshore floating turbines except ours are like icebergs," says T-Omega Co-Founder and Chief Engineer Jim Papadopoulos over a video chat. "Whatever they've got above the water, they've got four times as much below the water. If they've got 1,500 tons above the water, they've got 6,000 tons under the water. That's a big expense. We put almost nothing under the water. That's one of the big differences in cost, and movability, and launching."

----T-Omega's approach is completely different, starting at the turbine and generator itself, which mount to a double-sided axle shaft that's rigidly supported at both ends. Thus, rather than a single, heavyweight pole, the turbine is supported by four much slimmer legs, reaching down to lightweight, wide-spaced floating base platforms. It's much like the way a Ferris wheel is suspended; there's a reason why they don't build those on a single pole.

----The floating base is tethered to the sea floor, and as the wind changes, the base rotates freely around its pivot point on the sea bed, such that it's always facing directly into the wind – but without needing any sensors, motors and pivoting mechanisms to achieve that end. The materials cost savings are enormous, says Papadopoulos.

"Suddenly, the weight of the tower can be something like 10% of the weight of a normal tower. And instead of dealing with two- or three-inch thick steel – and all the equipment and time and logistics that entails – you're dealing with half-inch steel or less, and anybody can cut and weld it."

More

T-Omega re-thinks floating offshore wind turbines for huge cost savings (newatlas.com)

The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything, the young know everything.

Oscar Wilde.

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