Baltic Dry Index. 1612 +17 Brent Crude 91.19
Spot Gold 1664 US 2 Year Yield 3.87 +0.09
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 16/09/22 World 616,072,289
Deaths 6,525,594
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Very little need for commentary from me this morning.
Today very much a picture of the global economy rolling over and it’s not yet winter in the northern hemisphere.
The US yield curve now has the 1 year trading at a 4.00 percent yield and the 30 year trading at a 3.48 yield.
The
only good news is that the US rail strike has been postponed if not actually averted.
China markets
fall despite economic data beating expectations; Chinese yuan weaker than 7
against dollar
UPDATED FRI, SEP 16 2022 12:40 AM
EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific fell Friday as investors digest U.S. economic data and China’s
industrial production and retail sales figures for August, which beat
expectations.
The Shenzhen Component in
mainland China briefly pared some losses after the data release but then
extended losses to fall 0.919%, and the Shanghai Composite was
0.96% lower.
The offshore Chinese yuan weakened
past 7 against the dollar overnight, and last changed hands at
7.0191.
The onshore yuan also crossed the
7 level in Asia’s morning trade after the People’s Bank of China set the daily
midpoint at 6.9305 against the dollar. It was last at 7.0088 per dollar.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell
1.11%, and the Topix index slipped 0.62%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined
1.52%. South Korea’s Kospi shed
1.24% and the Kosdaq lost 1.61%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.42%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was
around 1% lower.
Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq
Composite dropped 1.43% to 11,552.36. The S&P 500 declined 1.13% to
3,901.35 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.27 points, or 0.56%, to
30,961.82, its lowest close since July 14.
“Equities and other
risk-sensitive markets [will] struggle as it becomes clear that U.S. inflation
pressures are well embedded and that risks to the fed funds rate lie to the
upside,” ANZ Research analysts wrote in a Friday note.
Asia
markets: Stocks fall, Chinese yuan crosses 7 level (cnbc.com)
Retail sales
growth sluggish in August as consumers fight to keep up with inflation
Retail sales numbers were better than expected in
August as price increases across a multitude of sectors offset a considerable
drop in gas station receipts, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Advance retail
sales for the month increased 0.3% from July, better than the
Dow Jones estimate for no change. The total is not adjusted for inflation,
which rose 0.1% in August, suggesting that spending outpaced price increases.
Inflation as
gauged by the consumer price index rose 8.3% over the past year
through August, while retail sales increased 9.3%.
However, excluding
autos, sales decreased 0.3% for the month, below the estimate for a 0.1%
increase. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%.
Sales at motor
vehicle and parts dealers led all categories, rising 2.8%, helping to offset
the 4.2% decline in gas stations, whose receipts tumbled as prices fell
sharply. Online sales also decreased 0.7%, while bar and restaurant sales rose
1.1%.
Revisions to the July
numbers pointed to further consumer struggles, with the initially reported
unchanged but to a decline of 0.4%.
Also, the “control”
group that economists use to boil down retail sales, was unchanged from July.
The group excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials retailers, gas
stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores, and is what
the government uses to calculate retail’s share of GDP.
“Higher inflation
drove the top line sales figure but volumes are obviously falling because on a
real basis, sales are negative,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer
at Bleakley Advisory Group. “Core retail sales being well below expectations
will result in a cut to GDP estimates for Q3 as stated.”
More
Retail
sales August 2022: (cnbc.com)
FedEx
warns of worsening economy and pulls forecast; shares drop 16%
September 16, 2022 1:35 AM GMT+1
Sept 15 (Reuters)
- FedEx Corp on Thursday withdrew the financial forecast it issued just three
months ago, saying a global demand slowdown accelerated at the end of August
and was on pace to worsen in the November quarter.
Shares in the
global delivery firm tumbled more than 16% after it also reported revenue and
profit for the first-quarter ended Aug. 31 that missed Wall Street targets.
S&P 500 futures fell on Thursday as FedEx added to worries about a slowing
global economy. read more
More
FedEx
warns of worsening economy and pulls forecast; shares drop 16% | Reuters
UK
consumer confidence falls into negative territory for first time since 2020
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2022 12:01 AM
Confidence among UK consumers has fallen into
negative territory for the first time since June 2020, according to a survey.
The Consumer Confidence Index from YouGov and the
Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) fell by 4.2 points in
August from 103.0 to 98.8, the largest decline since the early stages of the
pandemic.
It comes as inflation, largely driven by energy
price rises, piles pressure on consumers ahead of winter.
Both household finance measures – for the last 30
days and the outlook for the next 12 months – dropped by 3.1 points and 10
points respectively.
Every other measure also saw worsening scores,
including the outlook for house prices plummeting by 7.2 points to 124.9.
Perceptions of job security looking ahead fell from
120.9 to 118.5.
The survey was taken between August 1 and 31,
before Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her plan to freeze energy bills at
£2,500 a year for a typical household.
More
UK consumer
confidence falls into negative territory for first time since 2020 (cityam.com)
Finally,
poor Pakistan, desperately in need of international aid. Pakistan, normally a
food exporter will be a food importer for the rest of 2022 and most of 2023.
33
million displaced by Pakistan flooding
|
|
|
|
Rounds of record-shattering
flooding have struck Pakistan since June, inundating hundreds of villages across much of the country’s
fertile land. In Sindh Province in the
south, the floodwater has effectively transformed farmland into two large
lakes. Pakistani officials have warned that it may take three to six months
for the floodwaters to recede. |
|
So far, around 1,500 people have died —
nearly half of them children — and more than 33 million have been displaced
from their homes by the floods, which were caused by heavier-than-usual
monsoon rains and glacial melt. Scientists say that global warming is sharply
increasing the likelihood of extreme rain in South Asia. |
|
Tens of thousands of people are now
sheltering in schools and public buildings or along roadsides and canal
embankments in tents of tarp and rope. Many of those whose villages were not
completely submerged have remained in their homes, effectively marooned. |
|
Conditions: The Pakistani authorities have urged people to leave
the isolated villages, warning that their remaining could overwhelm already
strained aid efforts, cause widespread food insecurity and spark a health
crisis as diseases spread. Already, malaria, dengue fever and waterborne
diseases are rampant, and the government has shut off power to the area. |
The
New York Times, September 15, 2022
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
The
good news, that US rail strike is mostly averted at least until September 29.
The
bad news is it’s likely to be highly inflationary.
U.S.
railroads, workers avert shutdown, but work remains to finalize contract deal
September 16, 20224:58 AM GMT+1
LOS ANGELES, Sept
15 (Reuters) - U.S. freight railways and unions representing 115,000 workers
may have reached a deal to avert a damaging shutdown that could have battered
the U.S. economy, but the industry isn't clear of that danger yet.
Leaders of the
12 unions involved in the talks must now sell agreements to members, who will
vote to ratify or reject them over the next several weeks. And if Wednesday's
rejection of the agreement by one of the smaller unions and complaints online
by numerous union members are any guide, this won't be an easy sell. read more
More
U.S.
railroads, workers avert shutdown, but work remains to finalize contract deal |
Reuters
Argentina to Hike
Interest Rates to 75% as Inflation Nears 100%
Thu,
September 15, 2022 at 11:15 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s central bank raised its benchmark
interest rate Thursday in a bid to prop up its currency and curb inflation
nearing 100%.
he central bank boosted its benchmark
Leliq rate by 5.5 percentage points to 75%, according to an emailed statement.
The move comes a day after data showed consumer prices jumped nearly 79% a year
in August, the fastest pace in 30 years. It was the bank’s ninth rate hike this
year.
The bank’s board of directors also
added in the statement that it intends to reduce the level of short-term debt
held by the central bank next year, but didn’t provide more specifics.
Read More: Cash-Strapped Argentina
Goes All or Nothing on New Economy Chief
Earlier this week, central bank
President Miguel Pesce and Economy Minister Sergio Massa affirmed, in a meeting
with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva their
commitment to implement the country’s $44 billion deal with the IMF. A key
element of the accord includes keeping interest rates above the rate of inflation.
More
Argentina
to Hike Interest Rates to 75% as Inflation Nears 100% (yahoo.com)
John
Lewis posts £92m loss after ‘unprecedented cost inflation’
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2022 7:51 AM
John Lewis Partnership has posted a £92m loss
before tax, blaming shoppers spending less due to inflationary pressures in the
first half of the year.
This was versus a £69m profit compared to the same
period last year, although the partnership said on Thursday it was “not unusual
for us” to make a loss in the first half of the year.”
“Our trading is heavily skewed to Christmas with
most of our profits coming in the last quarter of the year,” the Waitrose and
John Lewis owner said in interim results.
The loss was attributed to inflation hammering
consumer spending and creating “unprecedented cost inflation” across the
business that has not been totally passed on to customers.
After the pandemic, customers have now shifted from
spending their spare cash on “high margin, big ticket household items to
restaurants and holidays – from dining room furniture to dining out,” John
Lewis said.
Volume decline and inflationary pressures sent the
supermarket’s operating profit down by £93m to £432m, although customer numbers
were up on the year before.
John Lewis saw sales rise three per cent to £2.1bn,
with a return to office working sending city centre stores’ sales booming.
It noted a rebound in fashion sales, with holiday
shopping pushing growth to 25 per cent on the year before.
Stay-at-home categories,
home and technology, dipped year-on-year, following the easing of Covid
lockdown rules earlier this year.
John Lewis posts
£92m loss after 'unprecedented cost inflation' (cityam.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Israel's COVID-19 czar fears
new wave combined with flu, urges vaccines
Israel's
COVID-19 czar Prof. Salman Zarka calls for the voluntary wearing of face masks
in risky places and antigen testing as the Jewish High Holy Days approach.
By JUDY
SIEGEL-ITZKOVICH Published: SEPTEMBER 14, 2022 16:04
Israel's
Health Ministry, concerned about the possibility of another COVID-19 wave
combined with the threat of influenza in the coming week and months, has
purchased the new
Pfizer vaccine that is suited to the Omicron variant, COVID-19 project manager Prof. Salman Zarka said
Wednesday in an online press conference for health reporters.
Indications
from Australia and New Zealand in the Southern Hemisphere, which are now ending
their winter, are that COVID-19 and the flu are
a dangerous combination.
Who
should get the flu shot and COVID-19 Omicron vaccine?
The
booster shot will soon be available from the four public health funds,
especially for those at high risk – the elderly and those with chronic illness
at any age – but others are also welcome to ask for the shot, Zarka said.
----Zarka urged people to wear face masks voluntarily in crowded places, including
buses and trains, in synagogues and elsewhere in the coming months. He also advised getting antigen tests before spending time at family
events during the High Holy Days and other events in the Hebrew month of Elul, especially if people at high risk
will be there.
The Health
Ministry has noted a rise in sickness among schoolchildren, Zarka said.
“Don’t
send children with respiratory symptoms and other signs of being unwell to
school,” he said. “The same goes for adults who should not go to work if they
are sick so they do not infect others.”
More
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No
technology update today. Today, who is attending the late Queen’s funeral on
Monday.
Queen’s
funeral guest list: who is invited and who is not?
The event, on Monday Sept 19,
will see around 500 dignitaries from across the world descend on London to pay
their last respects to the long-reigning monarch.
They will join members of the
Royal family, UK prime ministers past and present, and key figures from public
life at Westminster Abbey - the historic church that can hold around 2,000
people - at 11am next Monday.
"This is the biggest
international event we have hosted in decades," a Whitehall source said.
The source compared the
logistical task to organising "hundreds of state visits" within a
matter of days. Normally, there might only be two or three a year.
It presents a huge
logistical, diplomatic and security challenge, with practice runs taking place
in the dead of night.
Invitations were sent over
the weekend to the heads of state of nations with which the UK has diplomatic
relations. For most countries, that means the head of state plus one guest.
So, who can we expect to see
attend Her Majesty's funeral on Sept 19?
The Royal family
The late
Queen's four children - King Charles III, Princess Anne, Prince Andrew and
Prince Edward - will be present at the funeral, as well as their respective
spouses: Camilla, the Queen Consort; Sophie, Countess of Wessex and Sir Tim
Laurence. The Duke of York's ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson, is also expected to
attend.
The late Queen's
grandchildren will also be in attendance at the service - Prince William, Price
Harry, Peter Phillips, Zara Tindall, Princess Beatrice, Princess Eugenie, Lady
Louise Windsor and James, Viscount Severn.
Spouses of close family, including
Catherine, the Princess of Wales and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex will pay
their respects too.
Other Royals expected to attend the
funeral ceremony include Queen Elizabeth II's cousins: the Duke of Kent, Prince
and Princess Michael of Kent, Princess Alexandra and Prince Richard, Duke of
Gloucester.
Foreign royals
Monarchs from across the world will also
fly into London to pay their respects. Spain's King Felipe and Queen Letizia
have been confirmed as guests, while former king and queen Juan Carlos and
Sofía have been invited.
King Willem-Alexander and Queen
Maxima of the Netherlands, King Harald V and Queen Sonja of Norway and Prince
Albert II and Princess Charlene of Monaco have all confirmed their attendances.
Other members from Europe's royal
families will also be in attendance, including Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and
Greece.
---- President Joe Biden has said he will be present, with his wife, First
Lady Jill Biden. The former US presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama will
also not be attending, the White House confirmed on Monday.
European leaders who will be in
attendance include the French president Emmanuel Macron, the German president
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Italian president Sergio Mattarella and Finland's
Sauli Niinisto - the latter as per his presidential statement.
The European Commission President,
Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President, Charles Michel, will also
attend.
Other world leaders who are also
expected to be present are New Zealand's prime minister Jacinda Ardern, as well
as her Australian and Canadian counterparts Anthony Albanese and Justin
Trudeau. Australia's Governor-General David Hurley will also be joining, as
will Brazil's president Jair Bolsonaro
Yoon Suk-Yeol's office confirmed the
South Korean president's attendance. A representative of North Korea will be
allowed to attend the funeral. Britain and North Korea established diplomatic
relations in 2000 after 60 years without embassies. However, Kim Jong Un, the country's
leader, rarely travels abroad and is unlikely to attend.
The Japanese Emperor Naruhito and
Empress Masako will travel to Britain to attend. Traditionally, a Japanese
emperor stays away from funerals whether at home or abroad because of a
cultural belief based in the Shinto religion that considers death impure. The
decision for Naruhito to attend the Queen's funeral underscores the
importance and the deep bond between the royal families.
More
Queen’s
funeral guest list: who is invited and who is not? (msn.com)
Another
weekend and a bank holiday weekend in the UK, as the UK gets ready for the late
Queen Elizabeth’s funeral on Monday. For many in the UK they are deeply
saddened, but it should really be a celebration of a Great Queen’s Christian
fulfilment of Her life and passage into Heaven.
Have a
Great Weekend everyone.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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