Baltic Dry Index. 1746 +17 Brent Crude 90.14
Spot Gold 1660 US 2 Year Yield 4.11- +0.09
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 23/09/22 World 619,203,605
Deaths 6,536,797
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis
should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system
involved."
Ludwig
von Mises. [Just don’t tell anyone at the Fed or BOE.]
In the stock casinos, more confirmation that we’re in a new bear market and it could get severe.
Ultimately, our out of control global inflation will be beaten by our arriving new global recession, my guess by about March – April next year, but before then we have a winter fuel crisis to get through, rising food prices and soaring wage demands from labour unions.
Before this new turmoil ends, a “next Lehmann” will hit, probably more, a race to raise cash will develop as deeply indebted firms start selling off whatever is still bid, with higher interest rates, banks will tighten credit for borrowers.
It’s looking ugly for the winter ahead and we still have the October “crash month” to get through in stocks.
Ordinarily,
in a down stock casinos week I’d expect a Friday stabilisation rally. Today I’m
not so sure, the picture looking forward is terrible. Adding to forward
problems, more central banks raised their key interest rates yesterday and the US
inverted yield curve widened.
Australia stocks
slide 2%; Asian markets drop as investors weigh Fed hike
UPDATED FRI, SEP 23 20221 2:14 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific shares fell on Friday as investors
continue to weigh the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
2.28% on its return to trade after a holiday on Thursday. South Korea’s Kospi dipped
1.82% and the Kosdaq declined 2.49%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost
0.85%. Mainland China stocks were also lower, with the Shanghai Composite shedding
1.08% and the Shenzhen Component losing
1.769%.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.42%. Japan markets were closed for
a holiday Friday.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation in
Malaysia came in at 4.7% for August, in line with expectations. Singapore is
also slated to report August’s consumer price index data.
On
Wall Street overnight, stocks fell for a third consecutive day over
recession fears following the Fed’s latest 75-basis-point rate hike.
The S&P 500 was 0.8% lower at
3,757.99, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4% to 11,066.81. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped 107.10 points, or 0.3%, to 30,076.68.
Asia
markets: Stocks fall; Singapore, Malaysia inflation (cnbc.com)
Top economist
El-Erian says the Fed could have avoided 'higher, faster, longer-lasting' rates
and elevated recession risk if it had acted sooner
September
22 2022
Higher interest rates that
rise faster and last longer, as well as the elevated risk of an economic
recession, could have been avoided if the Federal Reserve had acted sooner to
curb inflation, top economist Mohamed El-Erian said on Wednesday.
His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday hiked interest rates by 0.75
percentage points for the third time in a row to tame rising prices. Higher
interest rates discourage borrowing, thus cooling demand throughout the
economy, but the move risks slowing growth so much the economy could slide into
a recession.
"Rates
that go higher, faster and stay there longer" and the elevated risk of a
recession could have been avoided had the Fed responded in a timely fashion to
cool inflation, El-Erian wrote in a tweet on Wednesday after the Fed's rate
decision announcement.
The Fed has already hiked rates five times this year, with
larger increases taking place at a faster pace over the months, as it races to
quell inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Inflation cooled in the months following, but was
still high at 8.3% in August.
"Rather
than lead markets in battling inflation, the Fed has been forced to follow
them," El-Erian wrote in a separate opinion piece for CNN published on
Wednesday ahead of the central bank's rate announcement. "Yet, because it
has been so late in responding, the Fed will be aggressively hiking into a
weakening domestic and global economy."
The situation has caused many to lose
faith in the central bank, and there is risk that politicians, companies, and
households could think of the Fed "as part of the problem and not part of
the solution," added El-Erian, who is the chief advisor to Allianz and the
president of Queens' College at Cambridge University in the UK. He was
previously the CEO of US bond-fund giant Pimco.
"There is an increasing number
of economists warning that the Fed will tip the US into recession; and a
growing number of foreign policymakers complaining that the world's most
powerful and systemically important central bank is pulling the rug out from
under an already fragile global economy," he wrote on CNN.
More
Swiss
National Bank exits negative rates era with 0.75% hike
September 22, 2022 12:09 PM
GMT+1
ZURICH, Sept 22
(Reuters) - Switzerland exited the era of negative interest rates on Thursday
when its central bank joined others around the world in tightening monetary
policy more aggressively to combat resurgent inflation.
The Swiss
National Bank (SNB) raised its policy interest rate by 0.75 of a percentage
point, ending the country's seven-and-a-half year experiment with negative
rates which sparked opposition from its financial sector and fears of asset
bubbles.
The increase to
0.5%, from minus 0.25%, followed a 50 basis point hike in June from minus
0.75%, the SNB's first rate hike in 15 years.
Swiss government
bond yields fell after Thursday's move, reversing course following an initial
spike, while the franc dropped broadly, falling against the dollar, euro and
pound as markets had priced in a 100 basis point rate hike by the SNB. read more
The central bank did not exclude more rate rises to come.
More
Swiss National Bank exits negative
rates era with 0.75% hike | Reuters
|
Bloomberg
evening update
Finally, Hounslow fires back at the patronising, woke New York Times. NYT hacks would be well advised not to make their employer known as they limo and taxi their way from Heathrow airport across Hounslow to “the gilded-halls” of central London’s five star hotels, bars and restaurants, lest they get dumped out in Hounslow instead to meet the natives.
Hounslow locals hit back after borough is 'trashed' by the
New York Times during Queen's funeral coverage
21
September 2022
Hounslow residents have hit back at popular
American newspaper the New York Times after their coverage of the Queen's
funeral took an unexpected swipe at the West London borough. The area had been
under a global spotlight on Monday as the Queen's televised funeral procession
passed through on its way to Windsor.
But in a strange switch of
focus the New York Times decided to run a feature comparing the 'gilded halls'
of Buckingham Palace to Hounslow, suggesting the borough is being
'ravaged by the current cost of living crisis.
A Tweet by the newspaper
read: "The queen’s last journey crosses the London borough of Hounslow.
It is an area of the capital far from the gilded halls of Buckingham Palace,
and one that is now being ravaged by Britain’s spiraling cost-of-living
crisis."
This sparked angry responses
from Hounslow residents, incensed that their area was being 'trashed' in such a
way, one writing: "All the hard working people are in Hounslow
Borough." Another added: "I live in Hounslow borough. We have 1
Foodbank. At the moment. Like any borough, some bits are affluent. Some areas
are deprived."
----- But these responses irked a number of Hounslow locals who stepped in to
defend their town. Despite acknowledging the area as being ‘quite deprived in
many ways’, one person argued ‘there are far worse places’ in the country.
They said: "I wouldn't say
Hounslow was, in my experience, any worse than anywhere else in London.
Hounslow is a decent hub. It's cheap and well connected, but it is pretty run
down. That said, some parts are far nicer than others. Hounslow is a fairly big
place. it also has just about every shop you could want for shopping.”
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Natural gas price skyrockets / Crude demand falls
/ Commodity prices up more than 10% in a month
Published on 22.09.2022
The cost of natural gas in August on the world’s
markets spiked nearly 41% in just a month, which fuelled a 12.2% growth in the
energy raw materials index calculated by Germany’s Hamburg Institute for World Economics (HWWI, Hamburg; www.hwwi.de). Compared to August 2021, gas prices were up an
eye-popping 182.5%, the institute said.
But some relief arrived in September despite
Moscow’s decision to stop sending gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that
supplies Europe, with prices this week comparable to those in July.
In oil markets, inflation slowed demand for crude
last month, which lowered the price by 7%. However, the recovery is only
relative: researchers in Hamburg said the crude price is still almost 38%
higher than in August of last year.
On average, commodity prices rose at a significant
monthly rate of 10.8 % in August, researchers said. The institute’s overall
index consists of the subindices for energy raw materials, industrial raw
materials, and food and beverages.
PZ Cussons
says inflation added £40m to prices this year
22
September 2022
Imperial Leather
and Carex maker PZ Cussons has reported a drop in annual profits as it said
cost inflation and the impact of consumer cutbacks impacted its performance.
The business posted
pre-tax profits of £66.6 million for the year to May 31, a 2.9% drop from £68.6
million a year ago. However, profits were ahead of market expectations, the
group said.
It also saw its
revenues ease back from £603 million to £593 million over the year.
Cost inflation hit
record levels with raw material prices and freight costs spiking, leading to an
around 11% increase in the cost of sales compared to the prior year – or £40
million more – PZ Cussons said.
However, the group said it was able
to offset price rises by pushing through price changes and cost initiatives
throughout the year.
Rising prices also
had a knock-on impact on consumer spending with households facing squeezed
budgets against higher living costs.
The company said it
is working hard to avoiding passing higher costs of logistics and supply chains
on to consumers.
More
PZ Cussons says
inflation added £40m to prices this year | The Independent
No ‘painless’ way to tame US inflation, warns Jay Powell
Fed chair
delivers gloomy vision of economic outlook amid aggressive tightening campaign
22
September 2022
Fed
chair Jay Powell has long contended that the US central bank could tame rampant
inflation without tipping the world’s largest economy into a recession, saying
as recently as July that he and his colleagues are “not trying to have a
recession, and we don’t think we have to”.
On
Wednesday, however, that optimism evaporated as Powell delivered one of his
gloomiest pronouncements to date about the economic outlook amid what has
become the most aggressive campaign to tighten monetary policy since 1981.
“We
have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do
that,” he said at the press conference following the Fed’s decision to further
extend its recent string of supersized rate rises. “There isn’t.”
Powell’s
comments came as the US central bank delivered a third consecutive 0.75
percentage point increase to its benchmark policy rate, a move that lifted the
federal funds rate to a new target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
Economists
interpreted the message as an admission that Powell’s previously stated goal of
achieving a “soft landing”, whereby the central bank can cool the economy
without excessive job losses, was becoming increasingly unrealistic. The Fed
chair himself admitted that the odds of that outcome “diminish” the longer
restrictive rates are sustained.
But what they also found striking about
Powell’s comments was the uncertainty he expressed about
“The
news from the press conference is the chair’s acknowledgment that it’s not
really just about weak growth,” said Jonathan Pingle, the chief US economist at
UBS who previously worked at the Fed. “There is a very real risk of recession
and he displays a very real willingness to go through with a hard landing.”
More
No ‘painless’ way
to tame US inflation, warns Jay Powell | Financial Times (ft.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Great
news, Dr. Biden has declared the pandemic over. Presumably now invalidating all
those Emergency Use Authorisations for vaccines.
POTUS, Pandemic is over
POTUS,
Pandemic is over - YouTube
More tomorrow though not a YouTube presentation.
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Huge Demands For Graphene
Coatings Market 2022 - Growing Rapidly With Latest Trends And Future Scope
9/21/2022 1:46:05 PM
Graphene Coatings Market
Graphene is extensively used for the
manufacturing of various products such as batteries and transistors, components
of solar cells, non-stick coatings.
OREGON, PORTLAND, UNITED STATES,
September 21, 2022 /EINPresswire.com / -- The global graphene coatings industry
generated $1.4 million in 2021, and is estimated to reach $17.9 million by
2031, witnessing a CAGR of 29.9% from 2022 to 2031. The report offers a
detailed analysis of changing market trends, top segments, key investment
pockets, value chain, regional landscape, and competitive scenario.
Enquire for Customization with
Detailed Analysis of COVID-19 Impact in Report @
Graphene is extensively used for the
manufacturing of various products such as batteries and transistors, components
of solar cells, non-stick coatings, water filters, touchscreens (for LCD or
OLED displays) and more. Hence, increased demand for graphene coatings from
various end-use industries like medical, automotive and electrical &
electronics is expected to fuel the growth of the global graphene coatings
market. However, the lack of global penetration due to lack of awareness about
the product benefits and the risk associated on human health due to the
processing of graphene with toxic chemicals hinder the market growth. On the
other hand, the growth in pharmaceutical, coatings, energy, and electronics
markets, rapid technical breakthroughs, and a greater focus on research and
development activities present new opportunities for the market in future.
More
Huge Demands For Graphene
Coatings Market 2022 - Growing Rap... | MENAFN.COM
Graphmatech
graphene-enhanced solution reduces hydrogen leaks
Graphmatech’s AROS
MB HDPE masterbatch line reduces hydrogen gas leaks by more than 40%
for pipes and Type IV pressure vessels.
Published 9/20/2022
A graphene-enhanced, high-density polyethylene
(HDPE) solution developed by Graphmatech (Uppsala,
Sweden) is said to reduce hydrogen leakage from pipes and Type IV hydrogen
pressure vessels by more than 40% (as shown by testing). All
test results depend on masterbatch loading and production method. According to
the company, this creates opportunities for graphene-enhanced solutions
in fuel cell vehicles and airplanes, among other applications.
Materials currently used in Type IV pressure vessels and
pipes for storage and transportation have the potential for serious leaks
of hydrogen into the atmosphere. Graphmatech hopes its AROS
MB HDPE product line, a ready-to-use granular mix. provides
an easily accessible lane to clean mobility and, therefore, helps the industry
use better pipes and pressure vessels. It is a part of the company’s growing
contribution to the green transition.
The AROS MB HDPE product line are masterbatches, suitable
for extrusion, extrusion blow molding and injection molding. The line
is now available in sample sizes of 1kg and 5kg off the shelf with
technical data sheets.
More
Graphmatech
graphene-enhanced solution reduces hydrogen leaks | CompositesWorld
"This first stage
of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices
of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation.
There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact
that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a
considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be
the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe
that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their
purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas
are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to
abandon its inflationary policy.
But then, finally, the
masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a
deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up
boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no
matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for
them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things
which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become
scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them."
Ludwig
von Mises.
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