Friday, 23 September 2022

October “Crash Month” Nears

 Baltic Dry Index. 1746 +17     Brent Crude 90.14

Spot Gold 1660         US 2 Year Yield 4.11- +0.09

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 23/09/22 World 619,203,605

Deaths 6,536,797

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises. [Just don’t tell anyone at the Fed or BOE.]

In the stock casinos, more confirmation that we’re in a new bear market and it could get severe.

Ultimately, our out of control global inflation will be beaten by our arriving new global recession, my guess by about March – April next year, but before then we have a winter fuel crisis to get through, rising food prices and soaring wage demands from labour unions.

Before this new turmoil ends, a “next Lehmann” will hit, probably more, a race to raise cash will develop as deeply indebted firms start selling off whatever is still bid, with higher interest rates, banks will tighten credit for borrowers.

It’s looking ugly for the winter ahead and we still have the October “crash month” to get through in stocks.

Ordinarily, in a down stock casinos week I’d expect a Friday stabilisation rally. Today I’m not so sure, the picture looking forward is terrible. Adding to forward problems, more central banks raised their key interest rates yesterday and the US inverted yield curve widened.

 

Australia stocks slide 2%; Asian markets drop as investors weigh Fed hike

UPDATED FRI, SEP 23 20221 2:14 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific shares fell on Friday as investors continue to weigh the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.28% on its return to trade after a holiday on Thursday. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.82% and the Kosdaq declined 2.49%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.85%. Mainland China stocks were also lower, with the Shanghai Composite shedding 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component losing 1.769%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.42%. Japan markets were closed for a holiday Friday.

Elsewhere in Asia, inflation in Malaysia came in at 4.7% for August, in line with expectations. Singapore is also slated to report August’s consumer price index data.

On Wall Street overnight, stocks fell for a third consecutive day over recession fears following the Fed’s latest 75-basis-point rate hike.

The S&P 500 was 0.8% lower at 3,757.99, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4% to 11,066.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 107.10 points, or 0.3%, to 30,076.68.

Asia markets: Stocks fall; Singapore, Malaysia inflation (cnbc.com)

 

Top economist El-Erian says the Fed could have avoided 'higher, faster, longer-lasting' rates and elevated recession risk if it had acted sooner

September 22 2022

Higher interest rates that rise faster and last longer, as well as the elevated risk of an economic recession, could have been avoided if the Federal Reserve had acted sooner to curb inflation, top economist Mohamed El-Erian said on Wednesday.

His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row to tame rising prices. Higher interest rates discourage borrowing, thus cooling demand throughout the economy, but the move risks slowing growth so much the economy could slide into a recession.

"Rates that go higher, faster and stay there longer" and the elevated risk of a recession could have been avoided had the Fed responded in a timely fashion to cool inflation, El-Erian wrote in a tweet on Wednesday after the Fed's rate decision announcement.

The Fed has already hiked rates five times this year, with larger increases taking place at a faster pace over the months, as it races to quell inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Inflation cooled in the months following, but was still high at 8.3% in August.

"Rather than lead markets in battling inflation, the Fed has been forced to follow them," El-Erian wrote in a separate opinion piece for CNN published on Wednesday ahead of the central bank's rate announcement. "Yet, because it has been so late in responding, the Fed will be aggressively hiking into a weakening domestic and global economy."

The situation has caused many to lose faith in the central bank, and there is risk that politicians, companies, and households could think of the Fed "as part of the problem and not part of the solution," added El-Erian, who is the chief advisor to Allianz and the president of Queens' College at Cambridge University in the UK. He was previously the CEO of US bond-fund giant Pimco.

"There is an increasing number of economists warning that the Fed will tip the US into recession; and a growing number of foreign policymakers complaining that the world's most powerful and systemically important central bank is pulling the rug out from under an already fragile global economy," he wrote on CNN.

More

Top economist El-Erian says the Fed could have avoided 'higher, faster, longer-lasting' rates and elevated recession risk if it had acted sooner (msn.com)

 

Swiss National Bank exits negative rates era with 0.75% hike

ZURICH, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Switzerland exited the era of negative interest rates on Thursday when its central bank joined others around the world in tightening monetary policy more aggressively to combat resurgent inflation.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its policy interest rate by 0.75 of a percentage point, ending the country's seven-and-a-half year experiment with negative rates which sparked opposition from its financial sector and fears of asset bubbles.

The increase to 0.5%, from minus 0.25%, followed a 50 basis point hike in June from minus 0.75%, the SNB's first rate hike in 15 years.

Swiss government bond yields fell after Thursday's move, reversing course following an initial spike, while the franc dropped broadly, falling against the dollar, euro and pound as markets had priced in a 100 basis point rate hike by the SNB. read more

The central bank did not exclude more rate rises to come.

More

Swiss National Bank exits negative rates era with 0.75% hike | Reuters

The US housing market has gone from FOMO to just plain fear. Prices are falling from peak levels, with expensive West Coast markets recording the steepest declines. Bidding wars are fading and sellers are ratcheting down expectations. It should all add up to an opportunity for would-be buyers who have been waiting to gain the upper hand after a years-long market frenzy. Instead, they’re facing the worst affordability in almost four decades. The abrupt end to the pandemic housing boom, driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes, is leading to a sense of paralysis in the market — a sign price declines will accelerate. With mortgage rates at the highest level since 2008, house hunters have gone scarce, priced out or worried about overpaying as America braces for a potential recession. Even big Wall Street buyers are holding fire, waiting for lower values ahead. “Everyone is coming to the view that prices are going to decline,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “Until that happens, nobody is going to buy.” Natasha Solo-Lyons

Bloomberg evening update

Finally, Hounslow fires back at the patronising, woke New York Times. NYT hacks would be well advised not to make their employer known as they limo and taxi their way from Heathrow airport across Hounslow to “the gilded-halls” of central London’s five star hotels, bars and restaurants, lest they get dumped out in Hounslow instead to meet the natives.

Hounslow locals hit back after borough is 'trashed' by the New York Times during Queen's funeral coverage

21 September 2022

Hounslow residents have hit back at popular American newspaper the New York Times after their coverage of the Queen's funeral took an unexpected swipe at the West London borough. The area had been under a global spotlight on Monday as the Queen's televised funeral procession passed through on its way to Windsor.

But in a strange switch of focus the New York Times decided to run a feature comparing the 'gilded halls' of Buckingham Palace to Hounslow, suggesting the borough is being 'ravaged by the current cost of living crisis.

A Tweet by the newspaper read: "The queen’s last journey crosses the London borough of Hounslow. It is an area of the capital far from the gilded halls of Buckingham Palace, and one that is now being ravaged by Britain’s spiraling cost-of-living crisis."

This sparked angry responses from Hounslow residents, incensed that their area was being 'trashed' in such a way, one writing: "All the hard working people are in Hounslow Borough." Another added: "I live in Hounslow borough. We have 1 Foodbank. At the moment. Like any borough, some bits are affluent. Some areas are deprived."

----- But these responses irked a number of Hounslow locals who stepped in to defend their town. Despite acknowledging the area as being ‘quite deprived in many ways’, one person argued ‘there are far worse places’ in the country.

They said: "I wouldn't say Hounslow was, in my experience, any worse than anywhere else in London. Hounslow is a decent hub. It's cheap and well connected, but it is pretty run down. That said, some parts are far nicer than others. Hounslow is a fairly big place. it also has just about every shop you could want for shopping.”

Hounslow locals hit back after borough is 'trashed' by the New York Times during Queen's funeral coverage (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Natural gas price skyrockets / Crude demand falls / Commodity prices up more than 10% in a month

Published on 22.09.2022

The cost of natural gas in August on the world’s markets spiked nearly 41% in just a month, which fuelled a 12.2% growth in the energy raw materials index calculated by Germany’s Hamburg Institute for World Economics (HWWI, Hamburg; www.hwwi.de). Compared to August 2021, gas prices were up an eye-popping 182.5%, the institute said.

But some relief arrived in September despite Moscow’s decision to stop sending gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies Europe, with prices this week comparable to those in July.

In oil markets, inflation slowed demand for crude last month, which lowered the price by 7%. However, the recovery is only relative: researchers in Hamburg said the crude price is still almost 38% higher than in August of last year.

On average, commodity prices rose at a significant monthly rate of 10.8 % in August, researchers said. The institute’s overall index consists of the subindices for energy raw materials, industrial raw materials, and food and beverages.

ENERGY COSTS: Natural gas price skyrockets / Crude demand falls / Commodity prices up more than 10% in a month | Plasteurope.com

PZ Cussons says inflation added £40m to prices this year

The business, which owns soap brands Carex and Imperial Leather, posted pre-tax profits of £66.6 million, a 2.9% drop from a year ago.

22 September 2022

Imperial Leather and Carex maker PZ Cussons has reported a drop in annual profits as it said cost inflation and the impact of consumer cutbacks impacted its performance.

The business posted pre-tax profits of £66.6 million for the year to May 31, a 2.9% drop from £68.6 million a year ago. However, profits were ahead of market expectations, the group said.

It also saw its revenues ease back from £603 million to £593 million over the year.

Cost inflation hit record levels with raw material prices and freight costs spiking, leading to an around 11% increase in the cost of sales compared to the prior year – or £40 million more – PZ Cussons said.

However, the group said it was able to offset price rises by pushing through price changes and cost initiatives throughout the year.

Rising prices also had a knock-on impact on consumer spending with households facing squeezed budgets against higher living costs.

The company said it is working hard to avoiding passing higher costs of logistics and supply chains on to consumers.

More

PZ Cussons says inflation added £40m to prices this year | The Independent

No ‘painless’ way to tame US inflation, warns Jay Powell

Fed chair delivers gloomy vision of economic outlook amid aggressive tightening campaign

22 September 2022

Fed chair Jay Powell has long contended that the US central bank could tame rampant inflation without tipping the world’s largest economy into a recession, saying as recently as July that he and his colleagues are “not trying to have a recession, and we don’t think we have to”.

On Wednesday, however, that optimism evaporated as Powell delivered one of his gloomiest pronouncements to date about the economic outlook amid what has become the most aggressive campaign to tighten monetary policy since 1981.

“We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that,” he said at the press conference following the Fed’s decision to further extend its recent string of supersized rate rises. “There isn’t.”

Powell’s comments came as the US central bank delivered a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase to its benchmark policy rate, a move that lifted the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.

Economists interpreted the message as an admission that Powell’s previously stated goal of achieving a “soft landing”, whereby the central bank can cool the economy without excessive job losses, was becoming increasingly unrealistic. The Fed chair himself admitted that the odds of that outcome “diminish” the longer restrictive rates are sustained.

 But what they also found striking about Powell’s comments was the uncertainty he expressed about

“The news from the press conference is the chair’s acknowledgment that it’s not really just about weak growth,” said Jonathan Pingle, the chief US economist at UBS who previously worked at the Fed. “There is a very real risk of recession and he displays a very real willingness to go through with a hard landing.”

More

No ‘painless’ way to tame US inflation, warns Jay Powell | Financial Times (ft.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

Great news, Dr. Biden has declared the pandemic over. Presumably now invalidating all those Emergency Use Authorisations for vaccines.

POTUS, Pandemic is over

POTUS, Pandemic is over - YouTube

More tomorrow though not a YouTube presentation.

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Huge Demands For Graphene Coatings Market 2022 - Growing Rapidly With Latest Trends And Future Scope

9/21/2022 1:46:05 PM

Graphene Coatings Market

Graphene is extensively used for the manufacturing of various products such as batteries and transistors, components of solar cells, non-stick coatings.

OREGON, PORTLAND, UNITED STATES, September 21, 2022 /EINPresswire.com / -- The global graphene coatings industry generated $1.4 million in 2021, and is estimated to reach $17.9 million by 2031, witnessing a CAGR of 29.9% from 2022 to 2031. The report offers a detailed analysis of changing market trends, top segments, key investment pockets, value chain, regional landscape, and competitive scenario.

Enquire for Customization with Detailed Analysis of COVID-19 Impact in Report @

Graphene is extensively used for the manufacturing of various products such as batteries and transistors, components of solar cells, non-stick coatings, water filters, touchscreens (for LCD or OLED displays) and more. Hence, increased demand for graphene coatings from various end-use industries like medical, automotive and electrical & electronics is expected to fuel the growth of the global graphene coatings market. However, the lack of global penetration due to lack of awareness about the product benefits and the risk associated on human health due to the processing of graphene with toxic chemicals hinder the market growth. On the other hand, the growth in pharmaceutical, coatings, energy, and electronics markets, rapid technical breakthroughs, and a greater focus on research and development activities present new opportunities for the market in future.

More

Huge Demands For Graphene Coatings Market 2022 - Growing Rap... | MENAFN.COM

Graphmatech graphene-enhanced solution reduces hydrogen leaks

Graphmatech’s AROS MB HDPE masterbatch line reduces hydrogen gas leaks by more than 40% for pipes and Type IV pressure vessels.  

Published 9/20/2022

A graphene-enhanced, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) solution developed by Graphmatech (Uppsala, Sweden) is said to reduce hydrogen leakage from pipes and Type IV hydrogen pressure vessels by more than 40% (as shown by testing). All test results depend on masterbatch loading and production method. According to the company, this creates opportunities for graphene-enhanced solutions in fuel cell vehicles and airplanes, among other applications.

Materials currently used in Type IV pressure vessels and pipes for storage and transportation have the potential for serious leaks of hydrogen into the atmosphere. Graphmatech hopes its AROS MB HDPE product line, a ready-to-use granular mix. provides an easily accessible lane to clean mobility and, therefore, helps the industry use better pipes and pressure vessels. It is a part of the company’s growing contribution to the green transition.

The AROS MB HDPE product line are masterbatches, suitable for extrusion, extrusion blow molding and injection molding. The line is now available in sample sizes of 1kg and 5kg off the shelf with technical data sheets.

More

Graphmatech graphene-enhanced solution reduces hydrogen leaks | CompositesWorld

"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them."

Ludwig von Mises.

 

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