Baltic
Dry Index. 1133 +19 Brent Crude 88.89
Spot Gold 1715 US 2 Year Yield 3.45 -0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 08/09/22 World 612,076,308
Deaths 6,509,597
Why did I take up stealing? To
live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that
you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
The G-7 Leaders, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
In the stock casinos, more bear market exit rally. Chasing nickels in front of a rising interest rate driven, arriving new global recession steamroller.
For now, cash, gold, silver, and storable foodstuffs are the way to go.
For most Europeans facing a winter of power cuts, add batteries, battery TVs and radios, battery Led lights and warm clothing and blankets to the list.
Japan’s Nikkei
rises 2% in mixed Asia session following Wall Street’s rebound rally
UPDATED WED, SEP 7 2022 11:43 PM EDT
Markets in
Asia-Pacific was mixed following Wall Street’s solid
rebound rally overnight in the best day since Aug. 10 for all
three averages. Investors will also be closely watching Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell’s speech Thursday as markets
brace for another 75 basis-point hike later this month.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 led
by trading 2.09% higher and the Topix was also up 1.95%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX
200 was
up 0.98% and the Kospi in South Korea was up 0.36%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai
Composite was slightly higher while the Shenzhen Component traded slightly
lower. The Hang Seng Index also slipped 0.2% while the Hang Seng Tech Index was
up 0.2%.
Malaysia’s central
bank is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate
hike, according to a Reuters poll.
The Japanese yen
stood at 144.06 against the greenback and the Korean won was 1,381.38.
he U.S. dollar has
room to inch up even higher thanks to rate differentials on the back of a
hawkish Federal Reserve, according to Wells Fargo Securities FX strategist
Brendan McKenna.
“We think a lot of these
international banks will not be able to raise rates as aggressively as the
markets are priced in for,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“So it’s kind of a combination of a
more hawkish Fed and a less hawkish tightening cycle from these international
central banks that support the dollar over the remainder of this year,” he
said.
Japan's Nikkei rises 2% in mixed Asia session following Wall Street's rebound rally (cnbc.com)
European markets
set to rebound after Wall Street rally; ECB ‘jumbo’ rate hike a possibility
UPDATED THU, SEP 8 2022 12:21 AM EDT
European
markets are heading for a higher open on Thursday following a rebound on Wall
Street that lifted global sentiment.
The European Central Bank is in
focus today, with the central bank due to announce its latest monetary policy
moves. It’s expected to frontload a series of rate hikes and sacrifice growth
in the region in light of the rising cost of living, which is threatening to
surge even higher.
With inflation in the euro zone
projected to rise to at least 10% in the coming months and the risk of consumer
prices rocketing higher, a “jumbo” rate hike of 75 basis points on Thursday is
a possibility.
Markets in Asia-Pacific were
mixed following Wall Street’s solid
rebound rally overnight in the best day since Aug. 10 for all
three averages.
Investors will also be closely
watching U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Thursday as markets
brace themselves for another 75 basis-point hike later this
month.
The European Central Bank is expected to frontload
a series of rate hikes and sacrifice growth in the region due to the rising
cost of living which is threatening to surge even higher.
ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel’s speech in
Jackson Hole set the tone for the upcoming policy meeting this
week. With inflation in the euro zone projected to rise to at least 10% in the
coming months and the risk of consumer prices rocketing higher, a “jumbo” rate
hike of 75 basis points on Thursday is certainly a possibility.
“As frontloaded hikes can have a
bigger impact on inflation expectations than a more gradual approach, a 75bp
move could make sense,” said ECB watcher and Berenberg’s Chief Economist Holger
Schmieding in a research note.
European
markets open to close, stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Shipping rates are
still falling, in another sign that a global recession may be coming
Freight rates have
continued to fall as global trade volumes slow as a result of shrinking demand
for goods, the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence
showed.
While freight rates
have also fallen due to the easing in supply chain disruptions that were built
up over the pandemic, a lot of the slowdown in container and vessel demand was
due to weaker cargo movement, according to the research group.
“Much reduced port
congestion level, along with weaker cargo arrivals, was one of the major
reasons behind significant decrease in freight rates,” S&P said in a note
on Wednesday.
“Based on expectation
of weaker trade volume, we do not expect extremely high congestion again in the
coming quarters.”
Freight rates for containers and dry bulkers — or
vessels carrying raw materials and bulk goods — have fallen over the past three
months, S&P said, adding that rates peaked earlier than expected in the
second quarter.
“Due to the seasonality of the
market, dry bulk freight rates would typically peak in the third quarter;
however, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest dry bulk
freight market outlook, the second quarter would likely be the peak of 2022,”
the firm said.
The firm’s Freight Rate Forecast
models have also predicted the Baltic Dry Index — a barometer for the price of
moving major raw materials by sea — is expected to fall about 20% to 30% for
the year before recovering slightly in 2024.
This underscores the increasing risks of a
global recession as consumer demand retreats amid rising cost
of living and inflation.
A key sign of a global downturn is
stagnating global trade growth, as highlighted recently by the World Trade Organization
latest Goods Trade Barometer, a benchmark which provides
real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade.
The barometer report that was
released in August showed the volume of world merchandise trade has plateaued.
Year‐on‐year growth for the first quarter of the year slowed to 3.2%, down from
5.7% in the final quarter of 2021.
It attributes part of the slowdown
to the conflict in Ukraine and pandemic lockdowns in China.
While the WTO had predictions that
global trade would rise this year, uncertainty surrounding that forecast has
increased due “to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising inflationary
pressures, and expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies,” the
barometer report said.
More
Shipping rates are still falling, in another sign that a global recession may be coming (cnbc.com)
Next,
about those Russian sanctions, Russia accuses the EU and America of gaming the
system. They wouldn’t do that, would they?
Putin
calls for review of Ukraine grain deal, accuses West of deception
September 7, 2022
10:20 AM GMT+1
KYIV, Sept 7
(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday he wanted to discuss
reopening a U.N.-brokered deal that allows Ukraine to export its grain via the
Black Sea after accusing Kyiv and the West of using it to deceive developing
countries and Russia.
Putin's criticism,
which alleged that the deal was delivering grain, fertiliser and other
foodstuffs to the European Union and Turkey at the expense of poor countries,
is likely to raise fears that the pact could unravel if it cannot be
successfully renegotiated.
Ukraine, whose
ports had been blockaded by Russia since it invaded in February, said the terms
of the agreement were being strictly observed and there were no grounds to
renegotiate it.
The agreement,
facilitated by the United Nations and Turkey in July, created a protected
export corridor via the Black Sea for Ukrainian grain after Kyiv lost access to
its main export route when Russia attacked Ukraine via land, air and sea.
The agreement,
designed to help ease global food prices by increasing supplies of grain and
oilseeds, has been the only diplomatic breakthrough between Moscow and Kyiv in
more than six months of war.
Moscow said at
the time that one of the main reasons it signed the deal was because it wanted
to help developing countries stave off food shortages.
But Putin said on
Wednesday that Ukraine and the West were not honouring its terms and that most
of the grain was going to the EU, not to poorer countries, something the
Russian leader said would have to change if what he called an
"unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe" was to be averted.
"I met with
the leaders of the African Union, with the leaders of African countries, and
promised them that we would do everything to ensure their interests and
facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain," Putin told an economic forum in
Russia's Far East region.
But if shipments
to Turkey as an intermediary country were excluded he said that only two out of
87 shipments had fallen under the U.N. World Food Programme, representing just
60,000 tonnes or 3% of the total 2 million tonnes exported so far.
"We are
honouring the agreements. (But) it turns out....that they (the West) have just
royally screwed us over and not just us but the poorest countries whose
interests were the pretext for doing all this."
There were roughly
70 ships stranded in Ukraine when Russia invaded in February, some of which had
already been loaded with grain, with contracts already signed. Some of those
contracted cargoes have been the first to move.
Putin spoke about
possibly restricting grain and food exports to the EU and promised to discuss
the matter with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the
original deal.
More
Putin
calls for review of Ukraine grain deal, accuses West of deception | Reuters
EXCLUSIVE
EU, U.S. step up Russian aluminium, nickel imports since Ukraine war
September 7, 2022
7:59 AM GMT+1
LONDON, Sept 6
(Reuters) - The European Union and United States have ramped up buying key
industrial metals from Russia, data showed, despite logistical problems spurred
by the war in Ukraine and tough talk about starving Moscow of foreign exchange
revenue.
The metal
shipments highlight the West's difficulty in pressuring Russia's economy, which
has performed better than expected and seen its rouble currency surge as
buoyant oil revenue has helped offset the impact of sanctions. read more
EU and U.S.
imports of Russia's main base metal products aluminium and nickel during
March-June increased by as much as 70%, official trade data compiled by Reuters
from the United Nations Comtrade database show.
The total value
of EU and U.S. imports of the two metals from March to June were $1.98 billion,
the data showed.
The West has
imposed repeated waves of sanctions on a wide range of Russian products, people
and institutions, but has largely spared the industrial metals sector.
----Analysts said the
United States and Europe have learned lessons after huge disruption on
construction, auto and power sectors caused by sanctions imposed by former U.S.
President Donald Trump on Russian aluminium 2018. read
more
----Prices
of both metals surged to record peaks shortly after Russia launched its
invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 on fears that sanctions or difficult logistics
would block shipments.
But those fears
were unfounded, since the data show Russian exports during March to June were
relatively strong.
"Market
mechanisms are working," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke, referring
to Russian metals shipments.
"We know
from commodity traders it's mainly a question of the price. It's not so much
about some politician not wanting you to buy, but is there a deal here."
More
EXCLUSIVE EU, U.S. step up Russian aluminium, nickel imports since Ukraine war | Reuters
Finally, in never ending proxy war news, the Washington Post breaks from the Ukraine is winning regular western media propaganda.
But why? Is Washington losing interest in keeping the proxy war running through winter? Are the Europeans desperate for Russian gas shipments to resume? Are/have the Ukrainians running/run out of troops?
Wounded
Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive
September 7, 2022
SOUTHERN
UKRAINE — In dimly lit hospital rooms in southern Ukraine, soldiers with
severed limbs, shrapnel wounds, mangled hands and shattered joints recounted
the lopsided disadvantages their units faced in the early days of a new
offensive to expel Russian forces from the strategic city of Kherson.
“They
used everything on us,” said Denys, a 33-year-old Ukrainian soldier whose unit
fell back from a Russian-held village after a lengthy barrage of cluster bombs,
phosphorous munitions and mortars. “Who can survive an attack for five hours
like that?” he said.
Denys and eight other Ukrainian soldiers from seven
different units provided rare descriptions of the Kherson counteroffensive in
the south, the most ambitious military operation by Kyiv since the expulsion of
Russian forces at the perimeter of the capital in the spring. As in the battle for Kyiv, Ukraine’s success is hardly assured and the
soldiers’ accounts signaled that a long fight, and many more casualties, lie
ahead.
“We
lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon
commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a
ditch.
Ihor
had no military experience before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He
made a living selling animal feed to pig and cow farms. His replacement as
platoon commander also has no previous military experience, he said.
The soldiers were interviewed on
gurneys and wheelchairs as they recovered from injuries sustained in last
week’s offensive. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid
disciplinary action. Others, like Denys and Ihor, agreed to reveal only their
first names. But most spoke plainly about the disadvantages they faced.
Russia’s Orlan drones exposed
Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an
altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their
movements.
More
Wounded
Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
BoE's
Bailey speaks about surging inflation and rate hikes
7
September, 2022
LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other top
officials from the British central bank spoke to lawmakers on Wednesday about
last month's decision to raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 in
the face of double-digit inflation.
"It's not for us
to comment on what fiscal policy will be and we will wait and see what it
is...but I do very much welcome the fact that there will be, as I understand
it, announcements this week because I think that will help to, in a sense,
frame policy and that's important"
"It's important that there is a
clear way forward on policy... That will be important for markets to understand
what is going to happen."
GOVERNOR ANDREW
BAILEY ON BOE MANDATE
"The inflation target ... has
proved to be very successful. In 25 years since this regime came into existence
... inflation has averaged pretty much exactly on target.
"This is by far the biggest
shock we are facing during the life of that, but it is not does not suggest
that the regime has failed. What it suggests is that the regime now has to do
its work and respond to a much bigger shock and we are confident that it will
do so."
CHIEF ECONOMIST HUW
PILL ON INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT ENERGY PLANS
"One of the things that does
seem to be under consideration ... is a change to the relationship between gas
prices and retail gas prices in a direction that will lower headline inflation,
relative to what we were forecasting ... where that relationship was based on
the mechanics of the Ofgem price gap.
"So I think that in the short
term would tend to weigh on inflation. Against that, some of the implications
of supporting household incomes - particularly household incomes towards the
less well off households - support demand in the economy, and other things
equal, would probably lead to slightly stronger inflation. Net-net on the
implications for headline inflation in the short term, I would expect that to
see a decline."
"Will fiscal policies generate
inflation? We are here to ensure that they don't generate inflation. So fiscal
policies will have their own dynamics as will other shocks to the economy, and
we as the central bank, our role is, our mandate is, our remit is to return
inflation to the target and I think that's what we're trying to do, that is what
we are doing, that is that is what we will do."
More
BoE's Bailey
speaks about surging inflation and rate hikes (msn.com)
Inflation could be
'significantly lower' than expected under bills plan
7 September, 2022
Plans by Liz Truss to cap energy bills could mean that increases in the cost of living will peak earlier and be "significantly lower" than previously forecast, economists have said.
The new prime minister is understood to want to cap energy bills at £2,500, with full details expected on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs says this could see inflation peak at 10.8% in October, rather than the 14.8% forecast before.
Prices are currently rising faster than they have done for 40 years.
Economists at the investment bank said that a cap on bills for households would lead to prices falling more quickly next year too, with inflation (which tracks how the cost of living changes over time) slowing to 2.4% by December 2023.
But they cautioned that there was uncertainty around what would happen once any cap is lifted.
How prices change will depend on wholesale gas prices, they said, which have been extremely volatile.
Energy prices
rose sharply when lockdown was lifted and the economy started to return to
normal. They have increased further as Russia sharply cut its supplies of gas
to Europe.
It has pushed
up the price of gas across the continent, including in the UK, having a huge
knock-on effect on consumers.
The Bank of
England has warned it could push the UK into recession later this year, while
charities say millions more households will fall into fuel poverty.
According to the Office for National Statistics, four in 10 adults who pay energy bills are already finding it "very or somewhat difficult to afford them"
But other economists have suggested that the soaring cost of living could be tempered by the support package.
Deutsche Bank suggested that a cap on energy bills from October at £2,500 would bring its annual inflation forecast down to 9% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Liz Martin, UK economist at HSBC said on Tuesday: "Cancelling all or most of the planned October and January prices rises [in the energy price cap] could be a game-changer in our view.
"It would mean
that, on a mechanical basis, inflation might already have peaked."
More
Inflation could be 'significantly
lower' than expected under bills plan - BBC News
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
EXPLAINER: Is COVID-19
winding down? Scientists say no.
New
booster shots have arrived and social distancing guidelines have eased but
COVID-19 infections aren't going away anytime soon
September 6, 2022
Is the coronavirus
on its way out?
You might think so.
New, updated booster shots are being rolled out to better protect against the
variants circulating now. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
has dropped COVID-19 quarantine and distancing recommendations. And more people
have thrown off their masks and returned to pre-pandemic activities.
But scientists say no. They predict the scourge
that’s already lasted longer than the 1918 flu pandemic will linger far into
the future.
One
reason it's lasted this long? It's gotten better and better at getting around
immunity from vaccination and past infection. Scientists point
to emerging research that suggests the latest omicron variant gaining ground in
the U.S. — BA.4.6, which was responsible for around 8% of new U.S. infections
last week — appears to be even better at evading the immune system than the
dominant BA.5.
Scientists worry the virus
may well keep evolving in worrisome ways.
One
reason it's lasted this long? It's gotten better and better at getting around
immunity from vaccination and past infection. Scientists point
to emerging research that suggests the latest omicron variant gaining ground in
the U.S. — BA.4.6, which was responsible for around 8% of new U.S. infections
last week — appears to be even better at evading the immune system than the
dominant BA.5.
Scientists worry the virus
may well keep evolving in worrisome ways.
Eric Topol, head of
Scripps Research Translational Institute, said the world is likely to keep
seeing repetitive surges until “we do the things we have to do,” such as
developing next generation vaccines and rolling them out equitably.
Topol said the
virus “just has too many ways to work around our current strategies, and it’ll
just keep finding people, finding them again, and self-perpetuating."
More
EXPLAINER: Is
COVID-19 winding down? Scientists say no. | The Independent
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
'Overwhelming majority': New
polling reveals huge backing for wind and solar
07 September 2022
Survation poll of over
6,000 people reveals over three quarters support new renewables projects in
their local area
Support for renewables
development in the UK remains "overwhelming", according to one of the
largest survey to date on the potential role of clean energy in tackling the
soaring energy bills.
A Survation poll of over
6,100 people commissioned by trade body RenewableUK found that 77 per cent of
people think the new government should use new wind and solar farms to reduce
electricity bills, while 76 per cent support building renewable energy projects
in their local area.
The survey - which covered
every constituency in the country - found that support for renewables
development was actually higher among Conservative voters, who are more likely
to be found in rural constituencies.
Eighty-four per cent of those
who voted Tory at the last election want to see the government use new wind and
solar farms to cut electricity bills, while 81 per cent of 2019 Tory voters
supporting a renewable energy project in their area. The 100 constituencies
where support for offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, and tidal power is
strongest are now predominantly Conservative, RenewableUK said.
"These findings are
wake-up call to every politician, including the new Prime Minister, that the
overwhelming majority of people want to see new investment in renewables and
are happy to see new wind and solar farms built in their local area to drive
energy bills down," said Dan McGrail, chief executive at RenewableUK.
"At a time when we need to shift from expensive gas to low-cost renewables
as rapidly as possible, most people agree that if local communities support
having a wind farm nearby, the government shouldn't stand in their way."
When asked about specific
policies a sizeable majority of respondents supported measures that would help
accelerate onshore renewables development.
For example, 64 per cent of
2019 Conservative voters think the new government should end the current block
on onshore wind projects in England where projects have local support - a
proposal the government committed to explore in the recent Energy Security
Strategy, but which neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak endorsed during this
summer's leadership campaign. In contrast, only 16 per cent of respondents
think the block on onshore wind farm development should remain. There is no
majority in favour of the current block in any constituency in England,
Scotland or Wales, RenewableUK said.
More
'Overwhelming
majority': New polling reveals huge backing for wind and solar | BusinessGreen
News
“It’s a good idea to save your money. One day it might be
worth something again.”
Mad Magazine.
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