Baltic Dry Index. 1002 +37 Brent Crude 94.17
Spot Gold 1699 US 2 Year Yield 3.51 +0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 02/09/22 World 608,867,367
Deaths 6,498,877
It is always the best policy to tell the truth, unless of course, you are an exceptionally good liar.
Jerome K. Jerome.
In the stock casinos, caution ahead of the latest US employment numbers and a long bank holiday weekend in the USA.
In the real world, rising panic as sky high prices for oil, natural gas and electricity threaten to end the economic world as we’ve known it since the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, August 15, 1971.
The chickens are all coming home to roost now, and Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell having sown the wind, Powell et al, are about to reap the whirlwind.
Print more and further fuel soaring inflation, do nothing and watch a global depression get underway, start a war, try dying Rome’s bread and circuses? How well did that end?
Still,
gold below 1,700 looks good in comparison.
Ernest Hemingway.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade mixed ahead of U.S. jobs report
UPDATED FRI, SEP 2 2022 12:38 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
shares were mixed on Friday as investors look ahead to the U.S.
jobs report for August, a key indicator before the Federal Reserve’s
next interest rate decision later this month.
South Korea’s consumer price
index rose slower than expected — 5.7%
in August from the same period a year ago, less than the 6.1% predicted by
analysts in a Reuters poll.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan was flat, while the Topix index was down 0.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
0.62% and the Hang Seng Tech index dropped nearly 1%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 recovered
from earlier losses to rise slightly.
Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite rose
0.28% and the Shenzhen Component traded
0.231% higher. The Kospi in
South Korea gained 0.26% and the Kosdaq advanced 0.2%.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.32% lower.
Economists predict
that 318,000 jobs were added in August, fewer than the 528,000 jobs added in
July, according to Dow Jones. Unemployment is forecast to be unchanged at 3.5%.
“All focus today is
on Payrolls later tonight where the [whisper] number is for a stronger than
expected print, which would add to the argument for a 75bp hike in September,”
Tapas Strickland, an economist at the National Australia Bank, wrote in a note
Friday.
Overnight in the
U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 145.99 points, around 0.5%, to
31,656.42. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to 3,966.85, and the Nasdaq Composite
slipped about 0.3%, to 11,785.13.
Asia
markets: Stocks trade mixed ahead of U.S. jobs report (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall slightly ahead of key August jobs report due Friday
UPDATED FRI, SEP 2 2022 12:44 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures were flat Friday morning as
investors await a key jobs report for August due Friday that will give more
information about the state of the economy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures fell 17 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 was flat and Nasdaq 100 futures
rose 0.05%. Shares of retailer Lululemon jumped
nearly 10% in late trading after reporting quarterly results that beat Wall
Street’s expectations.
Earlier Thursday, the Dow and the
S&P 500 ended the day higher, snapping four days of losses to kick off the
first trading day of September. The Nasdaq Composite slipped, posting its first
five-day losing streak since February, weighed down by falling semiconductor
stocks.
All three major averages are set
to end the week lower after slumping in the last days of August, on course to
notch their third negative week in a row. Stocks have been weighed down by
hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling that interest rate
hikes aren’t going away anytime soon. Now, traders are watching to see if
stocks will retest the June lows, especially since September is historically a
poor month for the market.
“A half a day rally right before we have a jobs number tomorrow
could just be simply that people didn’t want to be as short as they were over
the last couple of days,” said Brian Kelly, founder of BKCM LLC, on CNBC’s
“Fast Money.”
Stock
futures flat ahead of key August jobs report due Friday (cnbc.com)
Finally,
in economic news, from Britain to China the global economy is flirting with
collapse and no, that’s not to strong a word to use.
China's
economic outlook dulled by fresh property, COVID woes
September
1, 2022 10:53 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, Sept 1
(Reuters) - Persistent weakness last month in China's property market and
manufacturing sector, which combined account for half of the country's gross
domestic product, renews risks to its recovery already threatened by
disruptions from widespread COVID curbs.
Nearly 70 Chinese
cities reported declines in new home prices in August, the most since the start
of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the China Index Academy on Thursday, one
of China's largest independent real estate research firms. read more
Also on Thursday,
a private sector survey showed China's factory activity contracted for the
first time in three months in August amid weakening demand, while power
shortages and fresh COVID-19 flare-ups disrupted production. read more
The world's
second-biggest economy braked sharply in the second quarter due to widespread
COVID-19 lockdowns. Growing evidence suggests the nascent recovery in the third
quarter is in danger of stalling due to fresh COVID flare-ups and a protracted
weak outlook for the property sector, prompting economists to trim their GDP
forecasts.
----China said it will publish detailed steps for newly announced
economic policy measures in early September, state media quoted the cabinet as
saying on Wednesday, after a meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. read more
FALLING HOME SALES
New home prices
in 100 cities surveyed by the China Index Academy fell slightly by 0.01% from a
month earlier, unchanged from July, reflecting the continued chill in the
property market.
Among the 100 cities,
69 reported a fall in monthly prices, compared with 47 cities in July.
Nationwide, new
home sales by floor area fell 32% in August from a year earlier, narrowing
slightly from a 33% drop in July and marking the 13th month of double-digit
declines, a separate report from Shanghai-based E-house China Research and
Development Institution showed on Thursday.
More
China's economic
outlook dulled by fresh property, COVID woes | Reuters
UK
manufacturing suffers steepest fall since May 2020
1
September, 2022
British manufacturing production and new
orders collapsed in August, falling by the most in two years amid fears about a
worsening economy.
Last month's output saw its largest
contraction since the height of the pandemic in May 2020, according to the
latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
The index dropped to 47.3 from 52.1
in July - numbers above 50 generally correspond with growth, and numbers below
50 indicate a contraction.
According to S&P Global,
companies experienced a steep downturn in new orders in August, with interest
from domestic and overseas clients falling heavily. This led to the supply of
new jobs grinding to a halt, and a drop in business optimism, they added.
August’s PMI data "suggests that
a recession is developing in the manufacturing sector," said Gabriella
Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
With most indicators in the survey
flashing red, Ms Dickens said it was no surprise "that manufacturers are
the least confident about the 12-month outlook since April 2020".
"The bleak outlook now is
weighing on demand for labour," she said.
Demand from critical markets such as
China, the United States, and the European Union was weak last month, S&P
Global said, exacerbating issues with supply chains and logistics hubs that are
a hangover from the pandemic and Brexit.
One positive sign was the cooling of
input costs for manufacturers, with the prices of raw materials, containers,
and electronics all slowing down by their biggest margin since November 2020.
"This morning's PMI figure,
indicating recessionary performance in the manufacturing sector, is the worst
in two and a quarter years," said James Brougham, senior economist at Make
UK.
"This morning's data is a
significant, and perhaps the last, warning shot for government. Immediate
intervention is necessary to mitigate the worst of the economic damage to the
industry's fabric.
"Many of our European peers have
already moved to such action, something the UK government should look to mimic
if the UK manufacturing base is to keep its head above water," he said.
UK manufacturing
suffers steepest fall since May 2020 (msn.com)
Italy's industry
lobby warns of "economic earthquake" from energy prices
September
1, 2022
MILAN
(Reuters) - Italy must respond to an "economic earthquake" from
rising energy costs, the head of the country's business lobby said on Thursday,
adding that companies could not afford to wait for a new government before
getting more help.
Confindustria boss Carlo Bonomi
demanded a cap on the price of gas "if not a European level, then at a
national one," in an interview with Italy's RTL 102.5 radio.
"What we are facing is an
economic earthquake," Bonomi said, adding that energy costs in Italy were
among the highest in Europe.
"We can't wait for two months,
the time it is expected to take until we have a new government, jeopardising
the Italian industrial system, the income and the jobs of Italian
families," he added.
Italy will hold a national election
on Sept. 25, with the administration led by Prime Minister Mario Draghi still
in office and tasked with dealing with pressing current issues.
The Italian government has set aside
more than 50 billion euros ($50 billion) this year to try to soften the hit of
higher energy costs for firms and households
Business lobby Confcommercio warned
on Wednesday that about 120,000 Italian service sector firms could go out of
business over the next ten months due to surging energy costs, with 370,000 job
losses. ($1 = 0.9979 euros)
Italy's
industry lobby warns of "economic earthquake" from energy prices
(msn.com)
History has not dealt kindly with the
aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.
Alan Greenspan.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Fed’s Mester sees
benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023
PUBLISHED WED, AUG 31 2022 8:00 AM EDT UPDATED
WED, AUG 31 2022 8:36 PM EDT
Cleveland Federal
Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday she sees interest rates rising
considerably higher before the central bank can ease off in its fight against inflation.
Mester, a voting
member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said she
sees benchmark rates rising above 4% in the coming months. That’s well above
the current target range of 2.25%-2.5% for the federal funds rate, which sets
what banks charge each other for overnight borrowing but is tied to many
consumer debt instruments.
Markets currently are pricing in
only a 1-in-3 chance of the funds rate climbing above 4% next year.
“My current view is
that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4
percent by early next year and hold it there,” she said in prepared remarks for
a speech in Dayton. “I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate
target next year.”
In line with that, Mester said rates will remain
elevated “for some time,” a phrase used in recent days by both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. She said real rates, or the difference between the fed
funds rate and inflation, will need to “move into positive territory.”
The Fed this year has raised rates four times for
a total of 2.25 percentage points. Markets are pricing in a third consecutive
0.75 percentage point increase at the September meeting and looking for rate
cuts to start in the fall of 2023.
More
Fed's Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023 (cnbc.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
The lab-leak theory isn’t dead
The
mother of all Covid conspiracy theories is true
BY THOMAS FAZI August 30, 2022
For more than a
year after the onset of the pandemic, talking about the possibility that the
virus might have been lab-engineered was taboo. Then, as the evidence continued
to mount, it suddenly became acceptable to talk about it in “respectable”
circles. Today, however, we appear to have gone full-circle: a determined effort
is once again underway to dismiss the lab-leak theory for good — even though no
new evidence has emerged to disprove it.
Considering the
endless ways in which the pandemic and our response to it have changed the
lives of every human being on the planet, it’s astonishing to consider how
little is actually known about the origins of the virus. Two and half years on,
we are still very much in the dark as to when, how and even where SARS-CoV-2
first made its appearance.
This isn’t because
our efforts to get to the bottom of the mystery have proved fruitless, but
rather because those efforts have been systematically thwarted by the world’s
two most powerful governments: America and China. This is the mother of all
Covid conspiracy theories — but it’s also true.
One
of the main “conspiracy theorists” is none other than Jeffrey Sachs, director
of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, president of
the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and chair of the Lancet Covid-19
Commission. He is not your typical
tinfoil-hat-wearing internet crank. Sachs recently co-authored a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences calling for an independent inquiry
into the virus’s origins. He believes there is clear proof that the National
Institutes of Health (NIH), the primary US public health agency, and many
members of the scientific community have been impeding a serious investigation
into the origins of Covid-19 in order to cover up evidence that US-funded
research in Wuhan may have played a role in the creation of the SARS-CoV-2
virus.
More
The lab-leak
theory isn't dead - UnHerd
China
locks down 21 million in Chengdu in COVID-19 outbreak
September
1, 2022
BEIJING (AP) — Chinese authorities have locked down
Chengdu, a southwestern city of 21 million people, following a spike in
COVID-19 cases.
Residents have been ordered to stay home, and about 70%
of the flights have been suspended to and from the city, which is a major
transit hub in Sichuan province and a governmental and economic center.
The start of the new school term has been delayed,
although public transport continues to operate and citizens are permitted to
leave the city if they can show a special need.
Under the rules announced Thursday, just one member of
each family who can show a negative virus test within the past 24 hours is
allowed out per day to buy necessities.
No word was issued on when the lockdown would be lifted.
Similar measures have seen millions of
people confined to their homes in the northeastern city of Dalian, as well as
Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei province that borders the capital Beijing.
Chengdu has reported around 1,000 cases in
the latest outbreak and no deaths from the latest round of domestic
transmission, but the extreme measures reflect China’s rigid adherence to its
“zero-COVID” policy that has exacted a major toll on the economy, with
lockdowns, business closures and mass testing requirements.
China locks down
21 million in Chengdu in COVID-19 outbreak | AP News
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Single atoms swim inside a graphene sandwich
01
Sep 2022
A new technique
makes it possible to capture videos of single atoms “swimming” at the interface
between a solid and a liquid for the first time. The approach uses stacks of two-dimensional
materials to trap the liquid, making it compatible with characterization
techniques that usually require vacuum conditions. It could enable researchers
to better understand how atoms behave at these interfaces, which play a crucial
role in devices such as batteries, catalytic systems and separation membranes.
Several techniques
exist to image single atoms, including scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) and
transmission electron microscopy (TEM). However, they involve exposing atoms on
the surface of the sample to a high-vacuum environment, which can change the
material’s structure. Techniques that do not require a vacuum, meanwhile, are
either lower-resolution or only work for short time periods, meaning that the
atoms’ motion cannot be captured on video.
Researchers led by materials scientists Sarah
Haigh of the University
of Manchester’s National Graphene Institute (NGI) have now
developed a new approach that enables them to track the motion of single atoms
on a surface when that surface is surrounded by liquid. They showed that the
atoms behave very differently under these circumstances than they do in vacuum.
“This is crucial,” explains Haigh, “since we want to understand atomic
behaviour for realistic reaction/environmental conditions that the material
will experience in use – for example, in a battery, supercapacitor and membrane
reaction vessels.”
----“The
new technique could help improve our understanding of the behaviour of atoms at
solid-liquid interfaces,” Haigh says. “Such interfacial behaviour is generally
only probed at lower resolution, but it determines the lifetime of batteries,
the activity and longevity of many catalytic systems, the functionality of
separation membranes as well as many other applications.”
The researchers say
they are now studying a wider range of materials and how their behaviour
changes for different liquid environments. “The aim here is to optimize the
synthesis of improved materials that will be needed for the net zero energy
transition,” Haigh concludes.
The study is detailed in Nature.
Single atoms swim
inside a graphene sandwich – Physics World
Another weekend and it’s America’s
turn to take Monday off for Labor Day, US spelling.
Sadly in the Ukraine, the west’s proxy
war on Russia goes on with no end in sight. No one anywhere seems to want to
bring it to an end anyway. Politicians everywhere actually want this stupid war
to go on. But no politicians actually fight in any wars, nor do many of their
children.
Have a great weekend everyone.
I don’t want yes men
round me. I want everybody to tell me the truth even if it costs them their
jobs.
Samuel Goldwyn.
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