Wednesday, 7 September 2022

US Bond Yields Soar. Germany’s Model Breaks.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1114 -19    Brent Crude 91.60

Spot Gold 1715         US 2 Year Yield 3.50 +0.10

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 07/09/22 World 611,435,883

Deaths 6,507,344

Russia will not soon become, if it ever becomes, a second copy of the United States or England - where liberal values have deep historic roots.

Vladimir Putin.

In the Asian stock casinos, nervous selling. China’s exports badly missed expectations in yet more sign of trouble in the global economy.

US Treasury yields surged higher yesterday, with the one year rising to a 3.61 yield, 0.14 points higher.

The UK got a new Prime Minister and a revamped team at the top. Few expect much improvement, but you never know, politics is ever up and down depending on uncontrollable events.

Germany got no gas from Russia, effectively blowing up Germany’s business model predicated on cheap natural gas from Russia. As paymaster to the EUSSR, at least up until now, it probably blows up the EUSSR too.

All in all interesting times ahead.


Asia-Pacific markets open lower; China’s trade data misses expectations

UPDATED WED, SEP 7 2022 12:36 AM EDT

Markets in Asia-Pacific traded lower on Wednesday as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve to give its summary on current economic conditions, also known as the Beige Book.

China’s exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, missing estimates of 12.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, after growing 18% in July. The offshore Chinese yuan weakened further to 6.99.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan traded 0.95% lower and the Topix was also 0.77% lower. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite pared earlier losses to gain 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component also traded 0.79% higher. The Hang Seng index was 1.25% lower and the Hang Seng Tech Index was down 1.79%.

In South Korea, the Kospi traded 1.61% lower, and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was 1.28% lower.

U.S. bond yields surged overnight, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to its highest level since June. The rate on the 30-year Treasury closed at its highest level since 2014. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Japanese yen weakens further, inching closer to 145

The Japanese yen weakened further to 144.35, the weakest since mid-1998 – as the U.S. dollar index strengthened, hitting a fresh 24-year peak against the Japanese currency.

The offshore Chinese yuan also weakened to 6.99, inching closer to the 7 mark, following weaker-than-expected trade data.

South Korea’s won also weakened, surpassing the 1,380-level for the first time in more than 13 years.

Nomura cuts its China GDP forecast — again

Nomura has cut its forecast for China’s full-year GDP to 2.7%, another downgrade from its previous 2.8% estimate set in August.

The new outlook is based on Nomura’s analysis that found 12% of China’s GDP is affected by Covid controls on a weighted basis, up from 5.3% last week.

Several cities including the tech hub of Shenzhen have tightened Covid controls in the last few weeks after reporting new local infections. Chengdu has also ordered people to stay home while authorities conduct mass virus testing.

Asia-Pacific markets trade lower; China's trade data in August misses expectations (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are flat after another day of losses amid a surge in Treasury yields

UPDATED TUE, SEP 6 2022 8:56 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed Tuesday evening after the major averages added to weeks of losses amid a jump in bond yields.  

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower by points. S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower by 0.01% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just above the flat line.

Stocks added to their three-week slide in regular trading. The Dow fell about 173 points or 0.5%, and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% to notch its first seven-day losing streak since 2016.

The moves came amid a surge in bond yields that saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jump to its highest level since June. The rate on the 30-year Treasury closed at its highest level since 2014. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Investors are split on how to approach the market entering the first post-Labor Day week in September, a notoriously cruel month for stocks. All eyes are on the 3,900 level on the S&P 500. Some see the index falling to even lower lows, while others are optimistic about a year-end rally.

More

Stock futures are flat after another day of losses amid a surge in Treasury yields (cnbc.com)

Next, European news.  Will Germany drag down the EUSSR economy into a split this winter?  Without the great German powerhouse paying for most of the rest of the EU, thanks to cheap Russian oil and gas, which country is going to step into the paymaster’s shoes, if any?


German Factory Orders Shrank Again in July as Energy Crisis Hits Eurozone Demand

6 September 2022

Investing.com -- The outlook for Europe's largest economy continued to darken in July, as incoming orders to German manufacturers fell for the fifth month in six.

Statistics office Destatis said orders fell 1.1% from June, due to a slump in demand both from domestic customers, which fell 4.5%, and from the Eurozone, which fell 6.4%. That was partially offset by a 6.5% increase in orders from outside the single currency area.

The numbers confirm the downward trend that European manufacturing has been in since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. This would have been the sixth straight month of declines in order, had it not been for an upward revision to the May and June data.

Orders, a broadly reliable forward-looking indicator of activity are now down 13.6% from a year earlier, as demand cools in response to heightened geopolitical volatility that drove producer price inflation to over 37% in the year through July.

"Shrinking order books add to current recession fears," said ING analyst Carsten Brzeski. With surging energy prices and fading new orders, the outlook for German industry is anything but rosy."

The numbers come only two days ahead of the European Central Bank's next policy meeting, where the governing council will have to balance increasingly clear risks of a recession against a runaway inflation trend that has repeatedly run ahead of expectations this year.  The euro was undismayed by the numbers, however, rising 0.4% to $0.9946 by 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT).

The numbers were made slightly worse by volatile big-ticket items, which typically include items such as aircraft and ships. Stripped of these, orders fell only 0.8%. Another factor weighing on the numbers was a 23.6% decline in pharmaceuticals orders, albeit after a 10% rise the previous month. 

German Factory Orders Shrank Again in July as Energy Crisis Hits Eurozone Demand (msn.com)

 

JP Morgan plans to move work from Germany to London as blackout fears grow

September 5, 2022

JP Morgan has drawn up plans to shift work from offices in Germany into the City of London as finance companies brace for potential blackouts in the EU's biggest economy.

 

The Wall Street bank is preparing a raft of emergency measures so that it can continue trading if there are power outages this winter following Vladimir Putin's decision to cut off gas supplies from Russia.

 

It came as the energy crisis gripping Europe deepened, with the Kremlin announcing that the crucial Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline will remain shut until Western sanctions are eased, and the Opec-plus cartel of oil exporting countries agreeing to cut crude output.

The euro fell below $0.99 for the first time since December 2002, dropping by as much as 0.7pc to $0.9878 as wholesale gas prices surged and stocks slumped.

Shares were also hit, with Germany’s benchmark Dax index falling 2.2pc, while France's Cac 40 stock index dropped 1.2pc. Benchmark European gas prices jumped as much as 35pc.

The market chaos is spurring finance companies to prepare for the worst. JP Morgan is understood to be wargaming options such as shifting work from its Frankfurt base to London and other European offices if Germany is plunged into darkness.

A source added: “Work transfers could also be to and from any location, not just involving the UK.”

JP Morgan – which moved billions of dollars of assets from London to Frankfurt in the wake of the Brexit vote – could also fire up diesel generators at its offices that would allow them to function for several days without mains power, or tell staff to work from home to reduce energy consumption. 

The plans have been put in place as a precaution and the bank currently has no intention of activating any of the measures, it is understood.

----- Brussels is also considering a European Union-wide tax on electricity generators amid a scramble to try and curb the cost-of-living crisis, with energy ministers due to discuss the proposal at a meeting on Friday.

The plan was backed on Monday by Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, who said he supports a “European mechanism which we’d ask for from European energy operators whose production costs are far lower than market sale prices.”

Many wind and solar plant owners are believed to be making huge profits because wholesale prices have soared but their costs have not.

In both the EU and the UK, wholesale electricity prices are tied to the price of gas, even if electricity has been generated from other, cheaper sources.

Gas prices are ten or more times higher than long term averages as Russia restricts supplies to Europe, with the closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany on Friday adding further pressure.

More

JP Morgan plans to move work from Germany to London as blackout fears grow (msn.com) 

Turkey's Erdogan says 'Europe reaping what it sowed' on energy crisis

ISTANBUL, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Russia is cutting natural gas flows to Europe in retaliation for sanctions, adding that Europe is "reaping what it sowed".

Fears in Europe have increased over a potentially bleak winter after Russia announced it was keeping its main gas pipeline to Germany shut.

Russia indefinitely halted the flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and has cut or shut down supplies on three of its biggest westward gas pipelines since its invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24. Oil supplies have also been redirected eastwards.

"Europe is actually reaping what it sowed," Erdogan told reporters in Ankara on Tuesday, adding that sanctions drove Putin to retaliate using energy supplies.

"Putin is using all his means and weapons, and the most important of these is natural gas. Unfortunately - we wouldn't want this but - such a situation is developing in Europe," Erdogan said.

"I think Europe will experience serious problems this winter. We do not have such a problem," he added.

NATO-member Turkey has sought to strike a balance between Moscow and Kyiv by criticising Russia's invasion and sending arms to Ukraine, while opposing the Western sanctions and continuing trade, tourism and investment with Russia.

Turkey, which has Black Sea borders with both Russia and Ukraine, has said joining sanctions against Russia would have hurt its already strained economy and argued that it is focused on mediation efforts.

More

Turkey's Erdogan says 'Europe reaping what it sowed' on energy crisis | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Swiss activate safety net for power groups as Axpo seeks help

ZURICH, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Switzerland rushed out its financial safety net for the power sector after Axpo Holding [RIC:RIC:AXPOH.UL] sought and got an emergency 4 billion Swiss franc ($4.08 billion) credit line to secure its liquidity requirements amid surging energy prices.

It joins Finland, Germany, Austria and Sweden in offering liquidity guarantees to their utilities to withstand the ructions on markets as Russia cuts gas flows to Europe in an economic battle with the West over the war in Ukraine. read more

Swiss Energy Minister Simonetta Sommaruga told a news conference the government could not let a "wildfire" engulf crucial power groups exposed to wild swings in prices that are forcing them to cough up huge collateral for energy deals.

Axpo, Switzerland's largest producer of renewable energy that generates more than half of the country's renewable electricity from hydropower, said in a statement on Tuesday it has not used any of the funds yet.

"This credit line ensures that, should the situation intensify further, Axpo is in a position to cover the collateral requirements of long-term power supply contracts concluded with its customers, and continue contributing to Switzerland's security of energy supply," it said.

The government had already lined up a safety net worth 10 billion Swiss francs for the electricity sector, including Alpiq , BKW (BKWB.S) and Axpo. read more

More

Swiss activate safety net for power groups as Axpo seeks help | Reuters

France backs EU windfall tax to ease soaring energy prices

SEPT. 5, 2022 / 2:36 PM

Sept. 5 (UPI) -- French President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday his nation will join Germany in supporting a European Union windfall tax on energy companies' "excessive" profits to rein in soaring gas, coal and oil prices for consumers.

Macron told reporters he supports the levy and hopes the EU agrees to it, after speaking on the phone with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

"We support a European mechanism which we'd ask for from European energy operators whose production costs are far lower than market sale prices," Macron said after his call with Scholz. "This is the approach that France supports, and it's the approach that France and Germany support."

On Sunday, Scholz unveiled a $65 billion package and announced Germany would impose an energy windfall tax to help households and businesses "get through this winter" as Russia's war in Ukraine rages on. Scholz blamed Russia President Vladimir Putin for Germany's high energy prices, saying Russia "has broken its contract" and was "no longer a reliable energy supplier." Before the war, Germany had relied on Russia for 55% of its fossil fuels. That has dropped to 9.5% since February's invasion.

Adding to the urgency, Russia announced Friday it would shut off gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely. Russia's state energy giant Gazprom said it detected an oil leak at its Portovaya compressor station. The pipeline supplies Germany and 35% of Europe. Friday's announcement sent gas prices soaring and pushed the euro to its weakest level since 2002.

Russia has used oil and gas as a leveraged point in negotiations over penalties for its invasion of Ukraine. It had previously threatened to cut off oil exports to countries that implement a price cap. Gas flows through Nord Stream 1 have fallen to 20% of their capacity since June.

EU energy ministers are currently working on a set of emergency energy measures and will meet this Friday to discuss possible solutions that include capping natural gas prices, halting power derivatives trading, as well as the special windfall tax.

The windfall tax "is the most fair and the most effective approach," Macron said. "If such an approach doesn't happen on a European level, then we will look at it at the national level."

France backs EU windfall tax to ease soaring energy prices - UPI.com

 

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

New Bivalent Covid-19 Boosters: When Should You Get These BA.4, BA.5 Updated Vaccines

Bruce Y. Lee  Sep 5, 2022, 01:56pm EDT

In order to stay in sync with the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations, it’s time to say bye, bye, bye to the original Covid-19 mRNA booster vaccines. Or perhaps bivalent, bivalent, bivalent. Going forward, bivalent versions of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna Covid-19 mRNA boosters are what’s going to be available, replacing the original univalent ones. That’s because on August 31, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially announced that they had further amended the emergency use authorizations (EUAs) for both the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 mRNA vaccines to now include the bivalent formulations of them. And continuing to get the original univalent Covid-19 mRNA boosters when the bivalent ones are available would be kind of like continuing to purchase one-legged pants when two-legged ones are available. That’s because unlike the original univalent boosters, the bivalent ones give you added protection against the now circulating Omicron subvariants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) such as the BA.5. So when asking for your next Covid-19 mRNA booster remember the prefix “bi-.”

More

New Bivalent Covid-19 Boosters: When Should You Get These BA.4, BA.5 Updated Vaccines (forbes.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

A new laser-based chlorination process to create high doping patterns in graphene

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

In recent years, electronics and chemical engineers have devised different chemical doping techniques to control the sign and concentration of charge carriers in different material samples. Chemical doping methods essentially entail introducing impurities into materials or substances to change their electrical properties.

These promising methods have been successfully applied on several materials including van der Waals (vdW) materials. VdW materials are structures characterized by strongly bonded 2D layers, which are bound in the third dimension through weaker dispersion forces.

Researchers at University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley), the Kavli Energy Nanosciences Institute, Beijing Institute of Technology, Shenzhen University, Tsinghua University recently introduced a new tunable and reversible approach to chemically dope graphene. Their approach, introduced in a paper published in Nature Electronics, is based on laser-assisted chlorination.

"Conventional methods based on substitutional doping or surface functionalization result in the degradation of electrical mobility due to structural disorder, and the maximum doping density is set by the solubility limit of dopants," Yoonsoo Rho and his colleagues wrote in their paper. "We show that a reversible laser-assisted chlorination process can be used to create high doping concentrations (above 3 × 1013 cm−2) in graphene monolayers with minimal drops in mobility."

To implement their approach, Rho and his colleagues used an ultraviolet (UV) nanosecond laser beam, with a wavelength of λ=213 nm (5.8 eV). They aligned this beam parallel to the surface of their sample, under a flowing Clgas.

More

A new laser-based chlorination process to create high doping patterns in graphene (techxplore.com)

“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.”

Mad Magazine.

 

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