Baltic Dry Index. 1133 +47 Brent Crude 95.04
Spot Gold 1715 US 2 Year Yield 3.40 -0.11
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 06/09/22 World 610,809,415
Deaths 6,505,244
6 September 1666, after 4 terrible days, the Great Fire of London was finally out.
Great Fire of London
Great
Fire of London - Wikipedia
In
the Asian stock casinos a half hearted bounce. In Australia, another half
percent interest rate hike.
In
Europe, more pain from the high price of energy with no real solutions at hand.
Printing up more Magic Money Tree fiat money seems to be the favourite
solution, with the debate mostly whether to subsidise energy companies or
voters.
In
the UK later today, a new Prime Minister, same old problems.
In
the USA, back from holiday, politics seems to get nastier and more extreme with
each passing month. Another interest rat hike is expected on the 22nd.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade higher; Australian central bank decision ahead
UPDATED
MON, SEP 5 2022 11:56 PM EDT
Shares in the Asia-Pacific traded higher on
Tuesday ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered
from earlier losses to rise 0.46% and the Topix index gained 0.28%.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong advanced 0.56% in early trade, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite added
0.4%. The Shenzhen Component was
fractionally higher.
The Kospi in
South Korea rose 0.3% and the Kosdaq gained 0.92%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ticked
0.14% higher.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is
expected to raise interest rates by a half point to 2.35%, according to a poll
by Reuters. The Australian dollar was
slightly stronger at $0.6828 in morning trade.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan rose 0.44%.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China announced
it would cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of
FX reserves that financial institutions must hold, to improve the ability of
financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds.
Starting Sept. 15, the RRR will
be 6%, down from 8%.
“This cut should help increase FX
liquidity and thus lower depreciation pressure for CNY. While the actual impact
on FX liquidity is small … this cut serves as a strong policy signal that the
PBOC is uncomfortable with the rapid depreciation of the currency,” analysts at
Goldman Sachs Economics Research wrote in a note late Monday.
U.S. markets were closed
overnight for a holiday.
In oil markets, U.S. crude extended
gains from the previous session, while Brent crude declined
slightly.
Asia
markets: Stocks higher; RBA rate decision ahead (cnbc.com)
There’s no end in sight to Europe’s energy crisis.
GB gets a new Prime Minister but no one outside
of the media cares. Prime Ministers come and go all the time, though this new
one comes with low expectations, given most of the energy and foods problems are
mostly international rather than domestic.
EU warns of
depleted weapon stocks; Macron urges French to cut energy use by 10%
UPDATED MON, SEP 5 2022
11:54 PM EDT
French
President Emmanuel Macron is urging his country to cut back on energy use amid
fresh tensions with Russia over gas supplies.
European markets are feeling the
fallout from the war in Ukraine, with the euro falling below 99 cents for the
first time in 20 years after Russia said it would shut
off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely.
On Friday, Russian energy
supplier Gazprom said it
would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord
Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy said the country’s push to liberate Russian-occupied territories in
the south is making progress, a week after a much-vaunted counteroffensive
began.
Britain’s Ministry of Defense
said in its latest intelligence update that Russian forces likely missed
several deadlines to capture more of Ukraine’s Donbas, and are now facing a new
deadline to capture the region. Ukrainian officials say that Russian troops now
have a deadline of Sept. 15 to achieve this, according to the ministry, which
sees it as “highly unlikely.”
Russian energy
minister Nikolai Shulginov said the country will ship more oil to Asia in
response to price caps on its oil exports, Reuters reported.
“Any actions to
impose a price cap will lead to deficit on (initiating countries’) own markets
and will increase price volatility,” he told reporters at the Eastern Economic
Forum in Vladivostok, according to Reuters.
Last week, the G-7
economic powers agreed to cap the price of Russian crude to punish Moscow for
its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia exported
approximately half of its crude and petroleum product exports to Europe,
according to the International Energy Agency.
Live
updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com)
Opec+ cuts oil supplies to the world as prices fall
September 5, 2022
Opec and allied oil-producing countries, including Russia, have cut their supplies to the global economy by 100,000 barrels per day, underlining their unhappiness with crude prices that have sagged because of recession fears.
The decision on Monday by energy ministers
means the cut for October rolls back the mostly symbolic increase of the same
amount in September.
The move follows a statement last
month from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that the group could reduce output at
any time.
Oil producers such as Saudi Arabia
have resisted calls from US President Joe Biden to pump more oil to lower
petrol prices and the burden on consumers.
But worries about slumping future
demand have helped send prices down from June peaks of over 120 dollars per
barrel, cutting into the windfall for the government budgets of Opec+ countries
but proving a blessing for drivers as pump prices have eased.
The energy minsters said in a
statement the September increase was only for that month, and the group could
meet again at any time to address market developments.
Other factors are lurking that could
influence the price of oil. For one, the Group of Seven major democracies plan
to impose a price cap on imports of Russian oil and what effect that might have
on the market. The price level for the cap has not yet been set.
Meanwhile, a deal between Western
countries and Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear programme could ease sanctions and
see more than one million barrels of Iranian oil return to the market in coming
months.
However, tensions between the US and
Iran appear to have risen in recent days: Iran seized two US naval drones in
the Red Sea, and US, Kuwaiti and Saudi warplanes flew over the Middle East on
Sunday in a show of force.
Oil prices have gyrated in recent
months: Recession fears have pushed them down, while worries of a loss of
Russian oil because of sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine pushed them up.
Recently, recession fears have taken
the upper hand. Economists in Europe are pencilling in a recession at the end
of this year due to skyrocketing inflation fed by energy costs, while China’s
severe restrictions aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus have sapped
growth in that major world economy.
Opec+
cuts oil supplies to the world as prices fall (msn.com)
From
anti-Thatcher protests to ‘Reaganomics’: Meet the UK’s new prime minister
LONDON — After a
drawn-out Conservative Party leadership contest — and something of a political
power vacuum in the U.K. following the resignation of Prime Minister Boris
Johnson — the country now has a new leader.
Liz Truss, until now
the U.K.’s foreign minister, beat rival Rishi Sunak, the country’s former
finance minister, to win the leadership race with the result announced on
Monday.
With members of the
Conservative Party asked to vote for their favorite candidate, around 57% voted
for Truss while 42.6% voted for Sunak.
With a cost-of-living
crisis brewing in the U.K., as elsewhere in Europe as inflation continues to
rise, Truss will have to hit the ground running to deal with the immediate
squeeze on Britons’ pockets, with energy bills forecast to soar in the fall.
Political
commentators and economists have been poring over Truss’ political history as
well as her economic pledges on the campaign trail for a better idea on where
she might take a country that, as well as facing a potential imminent fall in
living standards, is yet to find a grip on the economic cost of the Covid-19
pandemic or the fallout from leaving the EU.
CNBC has a whirlwind
guide to the U.K.’s new prime minister, with some of the more standout moments
in her political career so far.
More
Liz
Truss: A guide to the U.K.'s new prime minister (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Europe
heading for recession as cost of living crisis deepens
September
5, 2022
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro zone is almost
certainly entering a recession, with surveys on Monday showing a deepening cost
of living crisis and a gloomy outlook that is keeping consumers wary of
spending.
While there was some easing of price
pressures, according to the surveys, they remained high and the European
Central Bank is under pressure as inflation is running at more than four times
its 2% target, reaching a record 9.1% last month.
It faces the prospect of raising interest rates
aggressively just as the economy enters a downturn.
A rise in borrowing costs would add to the woes of
indebted consumers, yet in a Reuters poll last week almost half of the
economists surveyed said they expect an unprecedented 75 basis-point rate hike
from the ECB this week, while almost as many forecast a 50 bps hike. [ECILT/EU]
Despite those expectations the euro dropped below
99 U.S. cents for the first time in 20 years on Monday after Russia said gas
supply down its main pipeline to Europe would stay shut indefinitely.
[MKTS/GLOB]
Gas prices on the continent soared as much as 30%
on Monday, stoking fears of shortages and reinforcing expectations for a
recession and a bitter winter as businesses and households are battered by
sky-high energy prices.
S&P Global's final composite Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a guide to economic health, fell to an 18-month
low of 48.9 in August from July's 49.9, below a preliminary 49.2 estimate.
Anything below 50 indicates contraction.
"The PMI surveys signal that the
euro area is entering recession earlier than we previously thought, led by its
largest economy Germany, and we now see the euro area 'enjoying' a longer,
three quarter recession," said Peter Schaffrik at the Royal Bank of
Canada.
"The revision is mainly due to
developments in energy prices which, even after retreating over recent days,
remain elevated and which mean that the impact on household spending will be
larger than we hitherto anticipated."
That prospect of recession whacked
investor morale in the currency union and it slumped in September to its lowest
since May 2020, another survey showed.
Services activity in Germany,
Europe's largest economy, contracted for a second month running in August as
domestic demand came under pressure from soaring inflation and faltering
confidence, earlier figures showed.
More
Europe heading for
recession as cost of living crisis deepens (msn.com)
Turkey's
inflation hits new 24-year high beyond 80%
September 5, 2022 10:23 AM GMT+1
ISTANBUL, Sept 5
(Reuters) - Turkey's annual inflation climbed to a fresh 24-year high of 80.21%
in August, a bit below expectations according to data on Monday, after the
central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and stoked a nearly year-long
cost-of-living crisis.
Inflation has raced
higher since last autumn when the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by
500 basis points to 14%, in an unorthodox easing cycle sought by President
Tayyip Erdogan that set off a lira crisis.
Despite
expectations that inflation will remain lofty, the bank cut rates by another
100 basis points last month to 13%, citing a slowing economy.
Month-on-month,
consumer prices rose 1.46%, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) said,
compared to a Reuters poll forecast of 2.0%. Annually, inflation was forecast
to be 81.22%.
Last month's
reading was the highest since 81.4% inAugust, 1998, when Turkey was battling to
end a decade of chronically high inflation.
The domestic
producer price index rose 2.41% month-on-month in August for an annual rise of
143.75%.
"The central
bank has resumed cutting interest rates. This, and the continuing huge PPI
inflation rate, are the main worries for Turkey which are steadily, but surely,
eroding the lira's fundamentals," said Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose.
The highest annual
inflation was seen in transportation, where prices rose 116.87% year-on-year,
despite prices in the sector dropping 1.78% month-on-month. In the key food and
non-alcoholic drinks' sector, prices jumped 90.25%.
More
Turkey's inflation
hits new 24-year high beyond 80% | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
App that detects
COVID in your voice 'more accurate than lateral flow tests'
5 September, 2022
A mobile phone app can detect COVID in people's voices with
"potentially high precision" using artificial intelligence (AI),
according to researchers.
An AI model was said to be 89% accurate and is cheap
to use, which means it could be adopted in low-income countries where PCR tests
are more expensive.
Results can be provided in
less than a minute and are said to be a "significant improvement" on
the accuracy of lateral flow tests, scientists said.
Infection normally impacts
the upper respiratory tract and the vocal cords and so researchers decided to
analyse changes in voices using an AI model to detect COVID.
Wafaa Aljbawi, a researcher
at the Institute of Data Science at Maastricht University in the Netherlands,
said: "These promising results suggest that simple voice recordings and
fine-tuned AI algorithms can potentially achieve high precision in determining
which patients have COVID-19 infection.
"Such tests can be
provided at no cost and are simple to interpret. Moreover, they enable remote,
virtual testing and have a turnaround time of less than a minute.
"They could be used, for
example, at the entry points for large gatherings, enabling rapid screening of
the population."
Data was used from the University of
Cambridge's crowd-sourcing COVID19 Sounds app. This included 893 audio samples
from 4,352 healthy and non-healthy people.
Users need to give information about
their medical history, smoking status and demographics and record some
respiratory sounds, such as coughing and reading a short sentence.
A voice analysis technique - called
Mel-spectrogram - identified different voice features to "decompose the
many properties of the participants' voices".
Ms Aljbawi added: "These results
show a significant improvement in the accuracy of diagnosing COVID-19 compared
to state-of-the-art tests such as the lateral flow test.
"The lateral flow test has a
sensitivity of only 56%, but a higher specificity rate of 99.5%. This is
important as it signifies that the lateral flow test is misclassifying infected
people as COVID-19 negative more often than our test.
"In other words, with the AI
LSTM model, we could miss 11 out of 100 cases who would go on to spread the
infection, while the lateral flow test would miss 44 out of 100 cases."
The AI model is also being used for
an app to predict exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
The research is due to be presented
to the European Respiratory Society International Congress in Barcelona on
Monday.
App that detects
COVID in your voice 'more accurate than lateral flow tests' (msn.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a little different,
BEV car sales. But will the high price of electricity short circuit sales?
UK
new car registrations rise 1.2% in August on battery EV sales
September 5,
2022
(Reuters) - The UK's new car registrations rose
1.2% in August from a year earlier, snapping five-straight months of declines,
largely boosted by growth in battery electric vehicles (BEVs), according to
industry data released on Monday.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers
and Traders (SMMT) said registrations in August, which is considered the second
quietest month of the year, were up at 68,858 units from 68,033 units a year
earlier, as many buyers choose to wait for a 'new' numberplate in September.
"Spiralling energy costs and
inflation on top of sustained supply chain challenges are piling even more pressure
on the automotive industry's post-pandemic recovery, and we urgently need the
new Prime Minister to tackle these challenges and restore confidence and
sustainable growth," SMMT Chief Executive Officer Mike Hawes said.
The auto market has been spiralling
with cost-of-living squeeze in Britain and the impact of persisting chip
shortages across the globe.
"With September traditionally a
bumper time for new car uptake, next month will be the true barometer of
industry recovery," Hawes added.
The year-to-date registrations which
came in at 983,099 units were, however, down nearly a third from pre-pandemic
2019 and 10.7% lower from 2021.
Sales in BEVs showed a 35.4% increase in
volumes and a 14.5% market share. However, SMMT warned that the growth in the
segment is slowing, with a year-to-date increase of 48.8%, whereas at the end
of first-quarter, BEV registrations had been jumped 101.9%.
UK new car
registrations rise 1.2% in August on battery EV sales (msn.com)
September 6, 1916. The First Supermarket Opens.
Piggly Wiggly®, America’s first self-service grocery store, was founded in Memphis, Tennessee in 1916 by the late Clarence Saunders.
Since its founding
in 1916, Piggly Wiggly® has played a major role in the history and development
of grocery merchandising. Piggly Wiggly’s introduction of self-service grocery
shopping revolutionized the grocery industry; many of the conveniences and
services that American shoppers now enjoy were brought to them first by Piggly
Wiggly®.
History | Piggly Wiggly (thepig.net)
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