Baltic Dry Index. 1729 +176 Brent Crude 90.77
Spot Gold 1662 US 2 Year Yield 3.96- +0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 21/09/22 World 618,088,965
Deaths 6,533,384
Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "Account Overdrawn."
Ayn Rand
If he falls off the former Chairman Volker anti-inflation wagon, stocks will soar, but so unfortunately will US and global inflation, the dollar will drop.
If he stays on the Volker anti-inflation wagon, it’s very bleak outlook for stocks and US real estate all the way out well into 2023.
Fed
Chairman Powell speaks at 2:30 Washington time, 7:30 London time.
Asia markets
trade lower ahead of Federal Reserve’s expected rate hike
UPDATED WED, SEP 21 2022 12:19 AM EDT
Shares in the Asia-Pacific traded lower
Wednesday, following Wall Street’s negative lead ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected
rate hike.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan dropped 1.24%, while the Topix index fell 1.18%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped
1.49%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.51%, and the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 2.48%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite lost
0.56% and the Shenzhen Component was
1.166% lower.
South Korea’s Kospi declined
0.9%. MCSI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.13%.
“A sourer tone took hold over the past 24 hours,
with equities lower and haven currencies, including the dollar, stronger,”
Taylor Nugent, economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a Wednesday note.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
dropped 313.45 points, or 1.01%, to 30,706.23. The S&P 500 slid 1.13% to
3,855.93 and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.95% to 11,425.05. The dollar index strengthened
above the 110 level.
Asia
markets: Fed interest rates, Wall Street, currencies, yields (cnbc.com)
European stocks
head for lower open as markets brace for more Fed action
UPDATED WED, SEP 21 2022 12:17 AM EDT
European markets are heading for a broadly lower
open on Wednesday as investors in the region brace themselves for another
aggressive interest rate move from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Investors expect that the central
bank will deliver its third
consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike to tame high inflation at
the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting Wednesday.
A higher-than-expected consumer
price index reading in August and hawkish comments on rate hikes from Fed
leaders have weighed on stocks, with more pressure likely ahead as the central
bank continues to fight inflation.
European
stocks open to close; markets brace for more Fed rate action (cnbc.com)
Fed expected to
hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most
It’s not what the
Federal Reserve does, but what it says it could do in the future that will be
most crucial when the central bank ends its two-day meeting Wednesday.
The Fed is expected
to fire off another three-quarter point rate hike — its third in a row. It will
also release quarterly forecasts for inflation, the economy, and the future
path of interest rates Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
The Fed’s projections are always important, but this time they are
even more so because investors have been trying to game how high it will raise interest rates and how much officials expect their actions
could affect the economy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET, and he is expected
to emphasize the central bank will do what it takes to fight inflation and it
is unlikely to reverse its rate hikes anytime soon.
“I think he puts up a
bulletin board behind him that says ‘Inflation Has to Come Down,’” said Rick
Rieder, BlackRock chief investment officer for global fixed income. “I think
he’s going to talk tough.”
The new forecasts
also come as the central bank moves into a rate hiking zone that some
economists expect will be more restrictive and could more seriously impact the
economy.
“It’s not what they
do, it’s what they say. This is our first actual tightening road map. We had
theoretical road maps up until now, but from the Fed’s point of view they’re
crossing into a world of tightening. That’s an important thing,” said Diane
Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.
The Fed has been
lifting rates for seven months now, and will now be moving its target rate
above what had been considered the neutral zone when inflation was low. Neutral
is considered to be the interest rate level where Fed policy is no longer easy
but not yet restrictive. The Fed has considered 2.5% to be neutral, and if it
raises by three-quarters of a point, the fed funds rate will be in a range of
3% to 3.25%.
“This is really
moving into restrictive monetary policy territory. We will be moving into no
man’s land,” Swonk said. “We actually haven’t tightened policy to fight
inflation since the early 1980s.
More
Fed's
three-quarters of a point hike due, but forecast is top focus (cnbc.com)
Column:
Jittery markets? Just wait 'til QT really kicks in
September 19, 2022 1:15 AM GMT+1
ORLANDO, Fla.,
Sept 16 (Reuters) - If global investors really care about the amount of money
central banks are about to withdraw from the world economy then rising official
policy rates are only the half of it.
World markets
got crushed this week after U.S. inflation data prompted a dramatic repricing
of how high and how fast the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle will
go.
Investors' focus
on the Fed's policy rate is understandable, but they should not underestimate
how much the Fed's other policy lever - quantitative tightening - could tighten
financial conditions and crush asset prices even further.
Many
economists, including Fed staffers, reckon QT is already priced into financial
markets or its impact will be minimal - the Fed outlined its program in May,
and it will be conducted over a long time at a steady and predictable pace.
But as the wild
post-pandemic gyrations in markets, economic activity, inflation, and policy
have shown, no one really knows.
The private
sector absorbing an extra $2 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed
securities over the next couple of years is new territory, and the ramping up
this month of monthly QT to $95 billion comes at a particularly febrile time.
The August
inflation report triggered a 50-basis point surge in the Fed's implied terminal
rate to 4.40%, sent the two-year Treasury yield to a 15-year high of 3.90%,
pushed U.S. mortgage rates above 6% for the first time since 2008, and wiped
trillions off the value of global stocks.
That was just
from one month's data. Are markets ready for QT to kick in as well?
"Fed QT
training wheels are off. Over time, this should see higher funding rates,
tighter financial conditions, and risk asset headwinds," Bank of America's
U.S. rates strategy team wrote on Thursday.
More
Column:
Jittery markets? Just wait 'til QT really kicks in | Reuters
Finally, cotton, a commodity we’ve covered before. Buy shirts or dresses now.
Drought decimates Texas' key
cotton crop
Issued on: 20/09/2022
- 04:10
Washington (AFP) – On Sutton Page's ravaged cotton
fields, there is almost nothing left to pick. The Texas farmer managed to
salvage maybe a fifth of his crop, but the rest was lost to the severe drought
that has taken a steep toll across the region.
This year, his harvest is "not
well," he says, but in reality, the drought in northern Texas has proven
to be a disaster, with most of Page's neighbors not even bothering to harvest
their crop, leaving "bare, bare fields."
Texas produces almost half of America's
cotton, and the United States is the world's third largest supplier, behind
India and China.
This year, national production will hit
its lowest level since 2015, down 21 percent year-on-year, and Texas will
suffer a 58 percent drop, the US Department of Agriculture estimates.
In the northwest of the state, where
cotton is the lifeline of the local economy and water is scarce, the 2022
harvest "could be one of the worst in 30 years," worries Darren
Hudson, professor of agricultural economics at Texas Tech University.
With the cascading consequences for the
global textile industry, in an economy already reeling from the pandemic,
Hudson put the likely economic impact for the region at $2 billion.
Landon Orman, 30, works on 2,000 acres
of cotton near Abilene, three hours west of Dallas. His non-irrigated cotton
did not even sprout, while his partially watered crop grew but its yield will
be slashed by half.
In total, he predicts an 85 percent
drop in production compared to a normal year. Like so many others, he has crop
insurance, so "financially we're not really doing that bad. But as a
farmer, it sucks pretty bad that we can't grow stuff sometimes."
More
Drought decimates
Texas' key cotton crop (france24.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Warnings Signs Multiply Ahead of Pivotal Fed Meeting
September
19, 2022
Higher
could mean farther to fall
It’s
rates week. The Fed will join the central banks of England, Norway, Sweden and
Switzerland in determining whether to raise interest rates further in an effort
to blunt rising inflation. More and more economists and investors are worried
that the global economy could be hobbled by the continuous tightening of
monetary policy.
All eyes will be on the Fed this Wednesday. The consensus estimate is for a 75-basis-point increase,
bringing the benchmark interest rate to between 3 and 3.25 percent — up from
near zero at the start of the year. Higher interest rates generally slow
lending and economic activity, and with it the forces that push prices higher.
So far, it’s not going to plan. Last week, the government reported that consumer prices rose 8.3 percent in the past year, through the end
of August.
The Fed’s rate increases are having the most direct impact on
housing. Mortgage rates climbed above 6 percent last week for the first
time since 2008. Rising borrowing costs have slowed home buying significantly,
though the effect on home values has been more muted. Prices appear to still be
rising in most parts of the country, though much slower than they once were.
Stock investors are feeling the pressure, too. The S&P 500 fell 5 percent last week, one of the market’s worst weeks of the year. Pessimistic growth forecasts are also
spooking investors. Shipping giant FedEx on Friday warned of a slowdown in its
business, particularly in Asia and Europe. Executives at G.E. and JPMorgan
Chase have also delivered gloomy outlooks.
Some warn that raising rates
could do more harm than good. The
billionaire real estate developer Barry Sternlicht said last week that unless
the Fed paused rate increases, the economy could fall into a significant
recession. “The economy is braking hard,” Sternlicht told CNBC. In a note to clients on Friday, Bank of America economists
predicted that Fed policymakers would be likely to revise their economic
projections this week to include less growth and higher unemployment.
Corporations, too, are in trouble. “An earnings shock is likely coming,”
Candace Browning, Bank of America’s head of global research, wrote in a
separate note.
More
Warnings Signs Multiply Ahead of Pivotal Fed Meeting – DNyuz
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Chinese
Scientists Develop Mask That Detects Covid, Flu Exposure
Low
De Wei September 19, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese researchers have developed a
mask that lets users know if they’ve been exposed to Covid-19 or the flu, a
development that could help vulnerable populations even as the use of face
coverings falls and more nations ease virus restrictions.
A sensor built into a mask was able
to detect the Covid-19, H5N1 and H1N1 influenza viruses in the air within 10
minutes and send notifications to a device, according to the study led by six
scientists working with Tongji University in Shanghai. The peer-reviewed
findings were published in the scientific journal Matter on Monday.
While the pandemic prompted the
widespread wearing of masks and a proliferation of designs -- including a
version with a microphone developed by Razer Inc. -- the easing of
Covid-related mandates in most major economies has led to a drop-off in
use.
Still, mask use remains widespread in countries
including China, which retains a strict Covid Zero policy, while many people
around the world continue to wear them to protect themselves and others from
the virus regardless of government rules. An Axios-Ipsos survey in
early September found that 37% of Americans wear a mask outside the home at
least sometimes, down from 89% two years ago.
The new device, which is mounted
outside the mask with a rechargable lithium battery, was tested by spraying
pathogens on it in an indoor setting, simulating a likely scenario where
someone is talking or coughing. Sensors responded to liquid about 70 to 560
times less than the amount produced in a sneeze, sending alerts to wireless
devices like a phone.
The researchers said that the device
was best used in enclosed spaces where the risk of infection is high, and are
working on shortening the detection times and sensitivity of the device, which
can be configured for different viruses if necessary. No cost estimates were
published on the accessory.
Chinese Scientists
Develop Mask That Detects Covid, Flu Exposure (msn.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New graphene-based battery set to make
domestic renewable energy even cleaner
19/09/2022
A new generation of batteries that are
more powerful, have higher power density and longer life, and are made entirely
from bio-waste, recycled plastic, and recyclable metal, is giving conventional
lithium-ion batteries tough competition in the renewable energy storage market.
Leading the charge is Brisbane-based
company Zero Emissions Developments (ZED), which has developed the technology
to create batteries from a wonder carbon-based material called graphene in an
emissions-free way, and is set to transform the solar energy industry by
offering a sustainable, cleaner and more reliable energy storage solution.
It was the environmental impact of
petroleum that made them think about finding an effective energy storage
solution, says ZED’s CEO and principal engineer Ahmed El Safty, who has over 37
years of experience in the energy sector with considerable exposure to the
petroleum industry.
Called PowerCap, the hybrid graphene
battery has been more than a decade in development and is currently being
trialled in in the industrial, commercial and residential markets.
Described as a pseudocapacitor battery
with a hybrid electro-chemical and electro-static architecture, PowerCap
features metal oxides on one side of the asymmetrical cell, and graphene or
graphitic carbon on the anode side. Compared to standard lithium-ion batteries,
ZED’s graphene battery innovation is more powerful, has two to three times more
power density, gives a similar energy density, is lighter, and very
importantly, doesn’t carry the fire risk of a lithium battery.
In terms of environmental benefits,
PowerCap uses metal oxides from metals that can be recycled at end of life,
while the graphene comes from bio-waste as well as plastic and tyre waste.
“Effectively the carbon footprint of
the battery itself is very low, and secondly, it makes it 100 percent
recyclable at the end of its life, which is about 30 years. Our standard
warranty is 20 years for the product because we can get 18,000 cycles before it
drops down to below 80 percent of its capacity,” says Safty.
The PowerCap technology is third party
tested and certified by TUV Germany to international standards, he added.
PowerCap hybrid graphene batteries are
now being installed in homes, and commercial and industrial facilities. “We put
them in forklifts. We're in the process of putting them in electric vehicles.
We're developing one for the Department of Defence for a defence missile
program and we're also developing a couple of others for homeland security in
the USA.”
More
Gold — what
can it not do, and undo?
William
Shakespeare.
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