Baltic Dry Index. 1086 +84 Brent Crude 93.02
Spot Gold 1712 U S 2 Year Yield 3.40 -0.11
“The worship of the state is the worship of force. There is no
more dangerous menace to civilization than a government of incompetent,
corrupt, or vile men. The worst evils which mankind ever had to endure were
inflicted by bad governments. The state can be and has often been in the course
of history the main source of mischief and disaster.”
Ludwig
von Mises.
Major stock averages slide for third week, Nasdaq posts
six-day losing streak
UPDATED FRI, SEP 2 2022 5:27 PM
EDT
U.S. equities fell on Friday to cap their third
straight weekly decline, after a solid August jobs report failed to ease fears
that the Federal Reserve would keep aggressively hiking interest rates to fight
inflation.
After rallying through the morning, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and finished the session lower by
337.98 points, or about 1.1%, at 31,318.44. The S&P 500 fell roughly 1.1%
to 3,924.26, its lowest close since July. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3% to
11,630.86, recording its first six-day losing streak since 2019.
All of the major averages were lower to end the
week, making it their third negative week in a row after slumping in the final
days of August. The Dow and S&P lost roughly 3% and 3.3%, respectively,
while the Nasdaq fell 4.2%.
“There’s still a lot of nervousness around what
we’ll see over the next few months,” said Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst
at eToro. “Yes, inflation and the job market are coming back into balance, but
at what cost? Markets are still figuring that out.”
“To make matters worse, the S&P 500 is
trapped in the danger zone – below its three big moving averages,” she added.
“Those moving averages served as floors up until a few weeks ago. Now, they
seem to be ceilings that the index just can’t bust through. The mood has
definitely changed. While we may not test the lows of this sell-off again, we
also may not reach new highs any time soon.”
Stocks had been weighed down
throughout this week by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials
signaling that interest rate hikes aren’t going away anytime soon. That’s put
traders on watch for a retest
of the June lows, especially knowing September is historically a
poor month for the market. Some have
suggested that if the S&P 500 fails to hold the 3,900
level, those summer lows could come back into play.
Some investors were briefly comforted on Friday
by the highly anticipated jobs report, which showed the economy added
315,000 jobs for the month, just under the
Dow Jones estimate for 318,000. Stocks rallied in the first part of
the day.
The unemployment rate rose to
3.7%, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than expectations. The August
report is particularly important because it’s one of the last major economic
reports the Fed will weigh before it raises rates at its September meeting.
This data point could help the central bank determine whether a 75-basis-point
hike.
The last major economic report of
note is August CPI on Sept. 13 and is
more likely to determine how aggressive the Fed needs to be in
the near term.
Major stock averages slide for third week, Nasdaq posts six-day losing streak (cnbc.com)
‘Why shouldn’t it be as bad
as the 1970s?’: Historian Niall Ferguson has a warning for investors
Top historian Niall Ferguson warned Friday that the
world is sleepwalking into an era of political and economic upheaval akin to
the 1970s — only worse.
Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy,
Ferguson said the catalyst events had already occurred to spark a repeat of the
70s, a period characterized by financial shocks, political clashes and civil
unrest. Yet this time, the severity of those shocks was likely to be greater
and more sustained.
“The ingredients of the 1970s are already in
place,” Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution,
Stanford University, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
“The monetary and fiscal policy mistakes of last
year, which set this inflation off, are very alike to the 60s,” he said,
likening recent price hikes to the 1970′s doggedly high inflation.
“And, as in 1973, you get a war,” he continued,
referring to the 1973 Arab-Israeli War — also known as the Yom Kippur War —
between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria.
As with Russia’s current war in Ukraine, the 1973
Arab-Israeli War led to international involvement from then-superpowers the
Soviet Union and the U.S., sparking a wider energy crisis. Only that time, the
conflict lasted just 20 days. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has now
entered into its sixth month, suggesting that any repercussions for energy markets
could be far worse.
“This war is lasting much longer than the 1973 war,
so the energy shock it is causing is actually going to be more sustained,” said
Ferguson.
---- “Why shouldn’t it be as bad
as the 1970s?” he said. “I’m going to go out on a limb: Let’s consider the
possibility that the 2020s could actually be worse than the 1970s.”
Among the reasons for that, he said, were
currently lower productivity growth, higher debt levels and less favorable
demographics now versus 50 years ago.
“At least in the 1970s you had
detente between superpowers. I don’t see much detente between Washington and
Beijing right now. In fact, I see the opposite,” he said, referring to recent
clashes over Taiwan.
More
1970s
inflation: Historian Niall Ferguson has a warning for investors (cnbc.com)
Poland puts its WW2 losses at $1.3
trillion, demands German reparations
September 1, 2022 3:50 PM GMT+1
WARSAW, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Poland estimates its
World War Two losses caused by Germany at 6.2 trillion zlotys ($1.32 trillion),
the leader of the country's ruling nationalists said on Thursday, and he said
Warsaw would officially demand reparations.
Poland's biggest trade partner and a fellow member
of the European Union and NATO, Germany has previously said all financial
claims linked to World War Two have been settled.
Poland's new estimate tops the $850 billion
estimate by a ruling party lawmaker from 2019. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS)
party has repeated calls for compensation several times since it took power in
2015, but Poland hasn't officially demanded reparations.
"The sum that was presented was adopted using
the most limited, conservative method, it would be possible to increase
it," Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Law and Justice (PiS), told a news
conference.
The combative stance towards Germany, often used by
PiS to mobilize its constituency, has strained relations with Berlin. It
intensified after Russia invaded Ukraine amid criticism of Berlin's dependence
on Russian gas and its slowness in helping Kyiv.
Some six million Poles, including three million
Polish Jews, were killed during the war and Warsaw was razed to the ground
following a 1944 uprising in which about 200,000 civilians died.
In 1953 Poland's then-communist rulers relinquished
all claims to war reparations under pressure from the Soviet Union, which
wanted to free East Germany, also a Soviet satellite, from any liabilities. PiS
says that agreement is invalid because Poland was unable to negotiate fair
compensation.
"The German government's position is
unchanged: the reparations question is closed," a German Foreign Office
spokesperson said. "Poland renounced further reparations a long time ago,
in 1953, and has since repeatedly confirmed this."
Donald Tusk, leader of Poland's biggest opposition
party Civic Platform, said on Thursday that Kaczynski's announcement was
"not about reparations".
"It's about an internal political campaign to
rebuild support for the ruling party," he said.
PiS is still leading in most opinion polls but its
edge over Civic Platform has narrowed in recent months amid criticism of its
handling of surging inflation and an economic slowdown.
Poland puts its WW2 losses at $1.3 trillion, demands German reparations | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
The
soaring cost of electricity is wreaking havoc among aluminium producers among many
other businesses.
Column: European smelter closures
fracture aluminium pricing
September 1, 2022 2:29 PM GMT+1
LONDON, Sept 1
(Reuters) - Two more European aluminium smelters are powering down as the
region's energy crisis shows no signs of abating.
Slovenia's
Talum will reduce output to just a fifth of capacity and Alcoa (AA.N) will
curtail one line at its Lista plant in Norway.
Close to 1
million tonnes of European primary aluminium capacity is now offline and more
may follow as a notoriously power-hungry sector struggles to cope with soaring
energy costs.
The aluminium market, however, is unimpressed by
Europe's mounting production woes, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month
price sank to a 16-month low of $2,295 per tonne on Thursday morning.
A weak global reference price reflects rising
Chinese production and growing demand fears for both China and the rest of the
world.
But European and U.S. buyers will get only partial
relief because physical premiums remain historically high as regional disparities
rupture the "all-in" price for their metal.
Aluminium production
outside China fell by 1% in the first seven months of this year, according to
the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
Rising output in South America and the Gulf region
couldn't fully offset the accumulating power hits to smelters in Europe and the
United States.
Western European production slumped by 11.3% year
on year in January to July and annualised run-rates are now consistently below
the 3 million tonne-mark for the first time this century.
North American output dropped 5.1% over the same
timeframe and July's annualised production of 3.6 million tonnes was also the
lowest this century.
The
sharp slide reflects the full shuttering of Century Aluminum's (CENX.O) Hawesville
plant and the partial curtailment of Alcoa's Warrick plant.
The scale of the
collective smelter hit might be expected to at least support the LME outright
price.
But losses in
Europe and the United States are being more than made up for in China.
China's smelters
collectively reduced annualised run-rates by more than 2 million tonnes last
year with multiple provinces mandating closures to meet tough new energy
targets.
A rolling winter
energy crisis has forced Beijing to backtrack for now on its decarbonisation
drive and aluminium producers have been quick to respond.
Annualised output
surged by 4.2 million tonnes over the first seven months of 2022 and is now
running at record highs close to 41 million tonnes.
More
Column: European smelter closures fracture aluminium pricing | Reuters
Early starts, new ovens as
ceramics industry feels energy pinch
September 2, 2022 7:25 AM GMT+1
CITTA DI CASTELLO, Italy/AMSTERDAM, Sept 2
(Reuters) - Factories in Europe's energy-intensive ceramics industry are
changing shift patterns and upgrading their furnaces as companies seek to
survive an eye-watering rise in costs.
In central Italy, workers at the small 'Ceramiche
Noi' factory, which makes patterned plates, bowls and other stoneware, are
having to get used to 6 a.m. starts to cut costs. The firm's energy bill soared
by 1,000% over the past year.
Bringing forward the start time by three hours allows
the plant in the Umbrian town of Citta di Castello to tap into cheaper off-peak
energy tariffs and operate when it is cooler.
"In the first hours of the day temperatures
are lower and we can therefore avoid turning on the fans, which are always on during
the day so we can use energy when it is cheaper," said 'Ceramiche Noi'
commercial manager, Lorenzo Giornelli.
The
change illustrates how energy-intensive businesses across Europe are adapting
their operations to avoid being crippled by surging energy bills following
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. read more
"Bills have
risen by 1,000%," said Giornelli, brandishing a monthly gas statement for
127,000 euros ($126,000), compared with one for 18,000 euros from last summer
even though he used a little less this year.
ELECTRIC OVENS
In the
Netherlands, the company behind the famous "Delft Blue" pottery that
portrays windmills and typical Dutch landscapes, intends to replace one of its
three main gas-fired ovens this year with an electric alternative.
"Koninklijke
Porceleyne Fles", or Royal Delft (PRCF.AS) as
it is better known abroad, will also be turning down the heating this winter in
its Delft factory where artists still paint many pieces by hand.
It is also making
more careful use of its ovens to fire as many pieces at a time as possible.
CEO Henk Schouten
said the company would like to replace all three ovens, but as each represents
an upfront investment of 100,000 euros, it will phase them out gradually.
Higher prices
were hurting the company's bottom line, but electricity costs are also painful
at current levels, he said.
The situation is
not make or break for a company which has been in operation since 1653, he
said, but added: "I would like to have it (the money) in our profits and
not in the costs."
More
Early starts, new
ovens as ceramics industry feels energy pinch | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
‘More than 400,000 people’ have had long Covid for over two
years
Thu,
1 September 2022 at 11:41 am
More than 400,000 people in the
UK with long Covid are
likely to have first had the virus at least two years ago, new figures suggest.
A total of two million people
across the country are estimated to be suffering from long Covid, according to
a new survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Some 429,000 – the equivalent of
around one in five (22%) – first had Covid-19, or suspected they had the virus,
at least 24 months previously.
The number of people with long
Covid who first had the virus at least one year ago is estimated to be 892,000,
or 45% of the total.
The figures are based on self-reported long Covid from a representative
sample of people in private households in the four weeks to July 31.
They show that long Covid is likely to be adversely affecting the
day-to-day activities of 1.5 million people – nearly three-quarters of those
with self-reported long Covid – with 384,000 saying their ability to undertake
day-to-day activities has been “limited a lot”.
Fatigue is the most common symptom (experienced by 62% of those with
self-reported long Covid), followed by shortness of breath (37%), difficulty
concentrating (33%) and muscle ache (31%).
More
‘More than 400,000
people’ have had long Covid for over two years (yahoo.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
A New Approach to Car Batteries Is About to Transform
EVs
Auto companies are designing ways to build a car’s fuel
cells into its frame, making electric rides cheaper, roomier, and able to hit
ranges of 620 miles.
AUG
29, 2022 7:00 AM
WEIGHT IS
ONE of
the biggest banes for car designers and engineers. Batteries are exceedingly
heavy and dense, and with the internal combustion engine rapidly pulling over
for an electric future, the question of how to deal with an
EV’s added battery mass is becoming all the more important.
If you want to build an EV with better range, slapping in
a larger battery to provide that range is not necessarily the solution. You
would then have to increase the size of the brakes to make them capable of
stopping the heavier car, and because of the bigger brakes you now need bigger wheels,
and the weight of all those items would require a stronger structure. This is
what car designers call the “weight spiral,” and the problem with batteries is
that they require you to lug around dead weight just to power the vehicle.
But what if you could integrate the
battery into the structure of the car so that the cells could serve the dual
purpose of powering the vehicle and serving as its skeleton? That is exactly
what Tesla and Chinese companies such as BYD and CATL are working on. The new structural designs coming
out of these companies stand to not only change the way EVs are produced but
increase vehicle ranges while decreasing manufacturing costs.
According to Euan McTurk, a consultant battery
electrochemist at Plug Life
Consulting, since technologies such as cell-to-pack, cell-to-body, and cell-to-chassis
battery construction allow batteries to be more efficiently distributed inside
the car, they get us much closer to a hypothetical perfect EV battery. “The
ultimate battery pack would be one that consists of 100 percent active
material. That is, every part of the battery pack stores and
releases energy,” he says.
More
A New Approach to
Car Batteries Is About to Transform EVs | WIRED
This
weekend’s music diversion. The music Austro-Hungary marched off to war with
Serbia in 1914. Perhaps not such a good idea. Approx. 5 minutes.
Florentiner
Marsch
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Alireza
is in a League of His Own
Alireza
is in a League of His Own - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 11 minutes.
Math
in the Simpsons: Apu's paradox
Math
in the Simpsons: Apu's paradox - YouTube
“Once the principle is admitted that it is the duty of the
government to protect the individual against his own foolishness, no serious
objections can be advanced against further encroachments.”
Ludwig von Mises.
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