Baltic Dry Index. 1552 -59 Brent Crude 92.11
Spot Gold 1674 US 2 Year Yield 3.95- +0.10
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 20/09/22 World 617,617,714
Deaths 6,532,000
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
This
week in the stock casinos, it’s all likely to be driven by interest rates. In
the USA the Fed meets today to decide how much to raise its key interest rate,
due to be announced tomorrow. Most expect another 75 basis point increase
although 50 basis points or 100 basis point increases are outside contenders.
Yesterday
the US yield curve closed 1 year 4.05 percent, the 30 year 3.52 percent. A sure
recession indicator if ever there was one, but has it already started?
On
Thursday the Bank of England meets to do the same, with the decision announced
the same day. They are widely expected to go up by another 50 basis points.
Both
central banks will still be far behind both countries inflation rates, with the
UK and EU facing yet more inflation to come from soaring energy prices with
winter still to come.
In
commodities news, is copper about to join Nickel in a scandal?
Stock futures
rise slightly with Fed set to kick off September meeting on Tuesday
UPDATED MON, SEP 19 2022 8:49 PM EDT
Stock
futures rose slightly on Monday evening as Wall Street looked to build on a
modest rebound ahead of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average inched up 49 points, or less than 0.2%. S&P 500 futures
added 0.2%, and those for the Nasdaq 100 rose roughly 0.2%.
The Federal Open Markets
Committee kicks off its September meeting on Tuesday, and the central bankers
are expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike on Wednesday. Stocks
have tumbled in recent weeks as comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and an
unexpectedly hot August consumer price index report caused traders to prepare
for even higher rates until inflation cools.
“I think last week a lot of the
work was done to reset interest rate expectations,” said Angelo Kourkafas,
investment strategist at Edward Jones.
“The momentum in equity markets
is to the downside. … Until we establish that pattern of lower [inflation]
readings, it’s going to be hard to reverse that elevated uncertainty and
volatility that we are seeing,” Kourkafas added.
During a choppy trading session
on Monday, stocks
rose in the afternoon to snap a two-day losing streak and claw
back some of their recent losses. The Dow rose 197 points, or about 0.6%. The
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.
However, after the market closed
on Monday, Ford announced that supply chain issues would cost the automaker an extra
$1 billion in the third quarter. Shares fell 4.5% in extended
trading.
On the economic front, investors
will get a fresh look at the housing market on Tuesday morning with the August
reports for housing starts and building permits.
Stock
futures rise slightly with Fed set to kick off September meeting on Tuesday
(cnbc.com)
Asia markets
higher as Japan’s core inflation rises; China keeps benchmark lending rate
unchanged
UPDATED MON, SEP 19 2022 11:14 PM EDT
Shares in the Asia-Pacific rose Tuesday as
Japan’s inflation accelerated and China kept its loan prime rate on hold.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained
0.91%, with the Hang Seng tech index up nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite in
mainland China rose 0.51% and the Shenzhen Component advanced
0.58%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 advanced
around 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.34% on its return to trade after a holiday and the Topix gained 0.37%.
The Kospi in
South Korea added 0.37%, while the Kosdaq was 1.04% higher. MSCI’s broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares gained 0.71%.
Core inflation in Japan increased
2.8% from a year ago, the fastest rate of increase since late 2014. China’s
loan prime rate was left unchanged Tuesday, in
line with predictions in a Reuters poll.
Australia’s central
bank says the argument for slower rate hikes strengthening
The Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA)’s board members “saw the case for a slower pace of increase in
interest rates as becoming stronger,” according to minutes from its Sept. 6
meeting, where it raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%.
“The Board expects
to increase interest rates further over the months ahead, but it is not on a
pre-set path given the uncertainties surrounding the outlook for inflation and
growth,” it said in the minutes released Tuesday.
It added
medium-term inflation expectations remained “well anchored.”
Future interest
rate increases will be guided by data and the outlook for inflation and labor
markets, the RBA said.
Asia
markets: Japan CPI inflation, China loan prime rate, currencies (cnbc.com)
Tycoon Running a Quarter of China’s Copper Trade
Is on the Ropes
He
Jinbi’s empire is suffering a liquidity crisis, and the ripple effects may go
global.
More
subscription required
Tycoon
Running a Quarter of China’s Copper Trade Is on the Ropes - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Recession fears shake Germany as
energy costs hit business
Olaf Scholz travels to UAE to secure gas
supplies amid concern that crisis is out of control
Mon 19 Sep 2022 17.00 BST
“Not pasta then?” Germans quipped earlier this month, on
hearing that of all things, a toilet paper manufacturer had gone bust.
After all, while toilet paper was the second
most sought-after supermarket item during the height of the pandemic, pasta was
the first. Consumers were strictly rationed to just one or two packets of rolls
to ensure that no one went without. But having boomed during the pandemic, the
luxury brand Hakle from Düsseldorf – known for “bringing comfort since 1928”
with its three-ply rolls – has bombed as a result of the energy crisis. It is
the first large German consumer goods producer to collapse because of soaring
energy and raw material costs, and there is much to suggest that it will be
followed by many more.
“The cuts to gas supplies from Russia this summer and the
drastic price increases they triggered are wreaking havoc on economic recovery
following the coronavirus,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, Ifo’s head of forecasts,
adding that he did not expect a “return to normal” until 2024, when 1.8% growth
and 2.4% inflation could be expected.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is
travelling to the Gulf this weekend asto secure supplies of liquified natural
gas (LNG) from the United Arab Emirates, as Russia chokes off its supply of
gas. The economy minister, Robert Habeck, said: “The gas supply is gradually
broadening and the government is permanently in talks with many countries, also
with nations on the Arabian peninsula.”
Paper production is highly energy intensive.
Hakle used 60,000 megawatt hours of gas and 40,000 MWh of electricity every
year. The rises in energy costs came so hard and fast, the company said, it was
unable to pass them on in time to consumers, who in turn have been switching to
cheaper two-ply loo roll.
More
Recession
fears shake Germany as energy costs hit business | Economics | The Guardian
Why is inflation
still so high right now, and when can we expect it to finally stop?
Sun, 18 September 2022 at 2:00 pm
Why is inflation still so
high right now, and when can we expect it to finally stop?
By the end of 2022, inflation
will be the year’s biggest buzzword. Not only in the U.S., but around the
world.
U.S. inflation has slightly eased
for the second month in a row, reaching 8.3% in August. This is the lowest
figure in four months, preceded by a 40-year high of 9.1% earlier this year
Yet Americans are still seeing
rising prices almost everywhere they look, with some sectors are being hit
harder than others. The cost of energy and gas fell 5% month-over-month but
food prices saw major upticks.
“The food index increased 11.4%
over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May
1979,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
The Federal Reserve enacted its second consecutive 0.75 percentage
point interest rate increase in late July in hopes of easing inflation. But
what's really causing prices to rise to rise in the first place, and what will
it take to make it stop?
What are the causes of
inflation?
There are four general causes of
inflation. The most commonly recognized causes are:
·
demand-pull
inflation
·
cost-push inflation
·
built-in inflation
The fourth cause is an increase
in the money supply, due to the Federal Reserve printing more.
----The effect of monetary
policy
During the pandemic, stimulus
checks were introduced to help keep the economy energized. With three rounds of
stimulus checks, the U.S. government gave more than 472 million payments or
$803 billion in total financial relief to those impacted by the pandemic.
To continue spurring economic
activity, the Feds also lowered its rates.
However, some critics claim that while the stimulus bills were necessary, they
have contributed to the inflation we know today.
And this also explains why some
economists believe that inflation is the result of a monetary policy.
“Inflation is always and
everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a
more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output,” the late
economist and Nobel prize laureate Milton Friedman once said.
More
Why is inflation
still so high right now, and when can we expect it to finally stop? (yahoo.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
What
wastewater data signals about COVID rates
September 16, 2022
Although reported COVID-19 case levels in the
U.S. are still falling after a viral resurgence over the summer, there are
preliminary indicators that infection rates may be back on the rise across the
country.View on Watch
In recent weeks, federal data has shown that
the number of U.S. wastewater sites reporting increases in the presence of
COVID-19 in their samples appears to be back on the rise, following declines
seen throughout the latter part of the summer.
In the U.S., about 50% of wastewater sites,
which are currently providing data to the Centers For Disease Control and
Prevention, have reported an increase in the presence of the COVID-19 virus in
their wastewater over the last 15 days, up from the 40% of sites reporting
increases last month.
From coast to coast, every area of the country
has seen a rise, according to a regional breakdown from Biobot, a wastewater
monitoring company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
The Northeast, in particular, appears to be
seeing higher growth levels, reporting the highest wastewater levels of any
region, Biobot data shows.
"Increase in virus
concentration found in wastewater has [predictably] been a key indicator of a
forthcoming COVID surge. In fact, given the challenges in case estimation and
the decline in testing, wastewater surveillance may be one the last remaining
high-quality datasets public health can rely on," said epidemiologist Dr.
John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital and an
ABC News contributor, who is also a member on the board of advisers for Biobot.
What wastewater
data signals about COVID rates (msn.com)
Study
Finds Covid Boosters Cause "Net Harm" In Young Adults
September 16, 2022
It was just a couple of days
ago that I wrote about the
explosive chronology of events laid out by Rutgers professor and Harvard PhD
Dr. Richard Ebright that made it clear to me that the Covid “lab leak” origin
was the most reasonable explanation for the pandemic.
And now, before we’ve even
had a chance to digest that information, it looks as though
we are getting another desperately needed Covid reality check: a new study
conducted by scientists from University of Washington, Harvard and Johns
Hopkins, emerged just hours ago and makes arguments against vaccine booster
mandates for young adults. The findings of the study were stunning.
The study, which is
still in pre-print and has not yet been peer reviewed, is called “COVID-19
Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical
Arguments against Mandates at Universities”.
The study looks at how, as
of May 2022, at least 1,000 colleges and universities have required
vaccination, with over 300 of them requiring boosters. Despite “more than fifty
petitions” in writing against these mandates, “young people, parents and
faculty have been ignored by administrators and mandate proponents”, the study
says.
Led by researchers from
the University of Washington, University of Oxford, Harvard and Johns Hopkins
University, it set out to
look at the problems of students facing disenrollment at North American
universities due to third dose COVID-19 vaccine mandates.
The [study] says that “two
main factors” are driving scientific controversy over boosters: “a lack of
evidence that booster doses provide meaningful reduction in hospitalisation
risk among young people and mounting evidence that (widespread) prior infection
confers significant protection against hospitalisation due to (re-)infection.”
Remember earlier this year when
the idea of “natural immunity” all of a sudden went from conspiracy theory
topic to widely accepted by Dr. Fauci?
The paper seeks to provide
the first “risk benefit assessment of SARS-CoV-2 boosters for young previously
uninfected adults under 40 years old”.
The study found that
requiring third boosters may provide “net expected harm”, as the study
estimated that “22,000 - 30,000 previously uninfected adults aged 18-29 must be
boosted with an mRNA vaccine to prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation.”
The study then used
adverse event data that...(READ THIS FULL REPORT AND GET THE FULL STUDY HERE)
Study Finds Covid
Boosters Cause "Net Harm" In Young Adults | ZeroHedge
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Loop
Energy says new hydrogen fuel cell more efficient than diesel engine
September
18, 20229:20 AM GMT+1 Last Updated a day ago
Sept 18 (Reuters) - Hydrogen fuel cell
maker Loop Energy (LPEN.TO) said
on Sunday that its latest cell system can deliver better fuel economy than a
diesel engine at current price levels.
The Burnaby, British Columbia-based
company said that - based on a pan-European diesel cost of $1.91 per litre on
Sept. 5 and $10 per kg of hydrogen - a truck could travel just over 111 miles
(179 km) on $100 worth of fuel using its new S1200 hydrogen fuel cell system
versus a little over 109 miles for an equivalent diesel truck.
As the auto industry makes the shift to
zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs), big freight truck makers like Daimler
Truck (DTGGe.DE) and Volvo (VOLVb.ST) are investing heavily in
hydrogen fuel cells to haul freight long distances because batteries weigh too
much to make electric trucks viable.
Hydrogen fuel cells run hydrogen
through a catalyst that produces energy and heat to power a small battery that
drives the truck - the only emission from these cells is water.
Hydrogen fuel cells have faced two
challenges for broad adoption: they have so far been less efficient than diesel
and fuelling infrastructure in Europe is virtually non-existent.
Nyland said the new cell system
essentially addresses the first of those challenges.
"This brings the future
forward," Loop Energy Chief Executive Ben Nyland told Reuters. "This
product delivers the economics that are needed for adoption today."
More
Loop Energy says
new hydrogen fuel cell more efficient than diesel engine | Reuters
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving
that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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