Wednesday 28 September 2022

Rising Rates. A Bombed Pipeline. Hurricane Ian.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1807 -06    Brent Crude 85.18

Spot Gold 1625         US 2 Year Yield 4.30 +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 28/09/22 World 621,219,557

Deaths 6,542,894

September 28, 1781 The siege of Yorktown begins.

The siege of Yorktown, also known as the Battle of Yorktown, the surrender at Yorktown, or the German battle (from the presence of Germans in all three armies), beginning on September 28, 1781, and ending on October 19, 1781, at Yorktown, Virginia, was a decisive victory by a combined force of the American Continental Army troops led by General George Washington and Gilbert du Motier, Marquis de Lafayette, and French Army troops led by Comte de Rochambeau over British Army troops commanded by British peer and Lieutenant General Charles Cornwallis. The culmination of the Yorktown campaign, the siege proved to be the last major land battle of the American Revolutionary War in the North American region, as the surrender by Cornwallis, and the capture of both him and his army, prompted the British government to negotiate an end to the conflict.[b]

More

Siege of Yorktown - Wikipedia

The big story of today, tonight UK time, is likely to be hurricane Ian slamming into Florida somewhere near Tampa and Tampa Bay.

Even category 1 hurricanes can do a lot of damage, especially if they’re slow moving and dumping a lot of rain. Hurricane Ian is forecast to hit Florida as a category 4 hurricane.

The other big story today is who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. More on that below.

In the stock casinos, Bruno the Bear looks like he’s just getting started.

European markets set to slide at the open as global counterparts turn lower

UPDATED WED, SEP 28 2022 12:15 AM EDT

European stocks are expected to open in negative territory on Wednesday as global markets turn lower on economic concerns surrounding inflation and the growth outlook.

The negative open expected in Europe comes after a torrid night for markets in the Asia-Pacific. Major indexes there briefly dipped 2% after the S&P 500 set a new 2022 low overnight on Wall Street.

The offshore and onshore Chinese yuan reached their weakest levels since 2008. The Indian rupee also marked a record low. U.S. stock futures were lower on Tuesday evening.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4% for the first time since 2010

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yielded breached 4% for the first time since 2010 – after topping 3.9% overnight.

The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury was at 4.2953%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

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European markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)

Stock futures fall after S&P 500 hits new low for the year; 10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 4%

UPDATED WED, SEP 28 2022 12:18 AM EDT

Stock futures were lower on Wednesday morning after a relief rally failed during regular trading hours and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday low for the year.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 173 points, or about 0.59%. S&P 500 futures shed 0.71%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell more than 100 points, or about 0.98%.

During Tuesday’s session, stocks gave up a large early gain and the S&P 500 fell below its intraday low from June, which was the previous market bottom. The Dow and S&P 500 closed lower for the sixth straight day, while the Nasdaq Composite ground higher by 0.25%. All three major averages are now in bear market territory.

Several technical metrics show that the stock market may be oversold, but some on Wall Street are worried that investors have not priced in an earnings slowdown and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. The S&P 500 breaking below its previous low is a key indicator for some that stocks still have further to fall.

“I think we’re certainly not at the end of the road in terms of pricing in the full recessionary outcome. … We really need to get to dirt cheap valuations oun equities, and we’re not quite there yet,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, said on Tuesday’s “Closing Bell.

On Wednesday, investors will get an updated look at the housing market with pending home sales from August.

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Stock futures fall after S&P 500 hits new low for the year; 10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 4% (cnbc.com)

Stock market losses wipe out $9 trillion from Americans’ wealth

Falling stock markets have wiped out more than $9 trillion in wealth from U.S. households, putting more pressure on family balance sheets and spending.

Americans’ holdings of corporate equities and mutual fund shares fell to $33 trillion at the end of the second quarter, down from $42 trillion at the start of the year, according to data from the Federal Reserve. With major market indexes falling even further since early July, and the bond market adding further losses, market experts say the current wealth losses from financial markets could total $9.5 trillion to $10 trillion.

Economists say the drops could soon start rippling through the economy, adding pressure to Americans’ balance sheets and possibly hurting spending, borrowing and investing. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said the losses could reduce real GDP growth by nearly 0.2 percentage points over the coming year.

“The loss of stock wealth suffered to date, if sustained, will be a small, but meaningful headwind to consumer spending and economic growth in coming months,” Zandi said.

The wealthy are bearing the largest losses, since they own an outsize share of stocks. The top 10% of Americans have lost over $8 trillion in stock market wealth this year, which marks a 22% decline in their stock wealth, according to the Federal Reserve. The top 1% has lost over $5 trillion in stock market wealth. The bottom 50% have lost about $70 billion in stock wealth.

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Stock market losses wipe out $9 trillion from Americans' wealth (cnbc.com)

Now back to today’s big stories. Who sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines and why?  Take your pick from America, Britain, NATO/Ukraine or Russia.

Fears of sabotage as gas leaks into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines

27 September, 2022

Gas is seeping into the Baltic Sea from three separate leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, Denmark’s energy agency confirmed on Tuesday, prompting speculation that the infrastructure at the heart of the energy standoff between Russia and Europe had been deliberately damaged.

The Danish energy agency said it had found two leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline north-east of the island of Bornholm, and a third in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Swedish waters south-east of the island.

A five-mile exclusion zone for shipping has been set up around Bornholm, and flights below 1,000 metres have been banned in the area. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, partially dissolves in water, is not toxic and creates no hazard when inhaled in limited quantities.

“Breakage of gas pipelines is extremely rare”, Danish authorities said in a statement. “Therefore we see reason to raise the preparedness level as a result of the incidents we have seen over the past 24 hours.”

Nord Stream AG, the pipeline operator, had on Monday morning reported an unexpected overnight drop of pressure from 105 to 7 bar in Nord Stream 2, which is filled with gas but was cancelled by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A further drop of pressure was reported on Monday afternoon in Nord Stream 1, which Russia shut down indefinitely at the start of September, initially saying it needed repairs.

German and Danish authorities would not comment on the cause of the extremely rare leaks while investigations were ongoing. But anonymous sources in German government circles said the simultaneity of the three leaks made an accident unlikely. “Our imagination cannot come up with a scenario which isn’t a deliberate attack,” a person involved in the investigation told the German daily Der Tagesspiegel.

The news magazine Spiegel, quoting government sources, said officials were not ruling out sabotage, designed to cause further uncertainty on Europe’s energy markets.

A European security source told Reuters news agency there were “some indications that it is deliberate damage”, adding it was still too early to draw conclusions. They added: “You have to ask: Who would profit?”

The drop in pressure comes after some politicians on the far right and far left of Germany’s political spectrum have started calling for Nord Stream 2 to be opened for gas deliveries to Europe, in defiance of Germany’s stated solidarity with Ukraine.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that it did not rule out sabotage as a reason for the damage to the Russian-built network of Nord Stream pipelines. “No option can be ruled out right now,” the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told a conference call with reporters when asked if sabotage was the reason for the damage. “This is a very concerning news,” he added, calling for a prompt investigation. “Indeed, we are talking about some damage of an unclear nature to the pipeline in Denmark’s economic zone.”

More

Fears of sabotage as gas leaks into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines (msn.com)

Vulnerable Tampa Bay braces for storm not seen in a century

September 27 2022.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP) — It’s been more than a century since a major storm like Hurricane Ian has struck the Tampa Bay area, which blossomed from a few hundred thousand people in 1921 to more than 3 million today.

Many of these people live in low-lying neighborhoods that are highly susceptible to storm surge and flooding they have rarely before experienced, which some experts say could be worsened by the effects of climate change.

The problem confronting the region is that storms approaching from the south, as Hurricane Ian is on track to do, bulldoze huge volumes of water up into shallow Tampa Bay and are likely to inundate homes and businesses. The adjacent Gulf of Mexico is also shallow.

“Strong persistent winds will push a lot of water into the bay and there’s nowhere for it to go, so it just builds up,” said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. “Tampa Bay is very surge-prone because of its orientation.”

The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 5 and 10 feet (1.5 and 3 meters) above normal tide conditions and rainfall of between 10 and 15 inches (12 and 25 centimeters) because of Hurricane Ian.

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Vulnerable Tampa Bay braces for storm not seen in a century | AP News


Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Nowadays, an after-dinner mint is what you need to pay the restaurant check.

Mad Magazine.

Lights out, ovens off: Europe preps for winter energy crisis

September 26 2022

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — As Europe heads into winter in the throes of an energy crisis, offices are getting chillier. Statues and historic buildings are going dark. Bakers who can’t afford to heat their ovens are talking about giving up, while fruit and vegetable growers face letting greenhouses stand idle.

In poorer eastern Europe, people are stocking up on firewood, while in wealthier Germany, the wait for an energy-saving heat pump can take half a year. And businesses don’t know how much more they can cut back.

“We can’t turn off the lights and make our guests sit in the dark,” said Richard Kovacs, business development manager for Hungarian burger chain Zing Burger. The restaurants already run the grills no more than necessary and use motion detectors to turn off lights in storage, with some stores facing a 750% increase in electricity bills since the beginning of the year.

With costs high and energy supplies tight, Europe is rolling out relief programs and plans to shake up electricity and natural gas markets as it prepares for rising energy use this winter. The question is whether it will be enough to avoid government-imposed rationing and rolling blackouts after Russia cut back natural gas needed to heat homes, run factories and generate electricity to a tenth of what it was before invading Ukraine.

Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has turned the war into an energy and economic crisis, with prices rising to record highs in recent months and fluctuating wildly.

In response, governments have worked hard to find new supplies and conserve energy, with gas storage facilities now 86% full ahead of the winter heating season — beating the goal of 80% by November. They have committed to lower gas use by 15%, meaning the Eiffel Tower will plunge into darkness over an hour earlier than normal while shops and buildings shut off lights at night or lower thermostats.

Europe’s ability to get through the winter may ultimately depend on how cold it is and what happens in China. Shutdowns aimed at halting the spread of COVID-19 have idled large parts of China’s economy and meant less competition for scarce energy supplies.

More

Lights out, ovens off: Europe preps for winter energy crisis | AP News

 

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

But I thought Dr. Biden said the pandemic was over.

Pfizer, Moderna ask FDA to approve bivalent COVID-19 booster for kids

SEPT. 26, 2022 / 3:03 PM

Sept. 26 (UPI) -- Pfizer and BioNtech asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday to approve their new Omicron-specific COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 5 to 11.

The companies submitted an application for emergency use authorization of a 10 microgram dose of the bivalent vaccine for that age group.

The request comes on the heels of applications announced Friday by Moderna for emergency use authorization of its updated COVID-19 booster for children as young as 6.

Moderna made the announcement on Twitter, without including details about its applications, which include two groups of children -- ages 6 to 11 and 12 to 17. The Moderna booster currently is available only to adults.

The new vaccines are adapted to target the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants along with the original strain of COVID-19.

Pfizer said its application for emergency use authorization is based on safety and efficacy data trials of earlier vaccines and non-clinical data from the new vaccine.

Pfizer also has initiated studies of the safety, tolerability and efficacy of the vaccine in children ages 6 months to 11 years, including different vaccine dosing regiments, dose levels and ages.

More

Pfizer, Moderna ask FDA to approve bivalent COVID-19 booster for kids - UPI.com

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Thickened battery electrodes hint at fast-charging EVs with doubled range

Nick Lavars  September 26, 2022

Scientists experimenting with key components in lithium batteries have come up with a promising new design that could one day see electric vehicles charge much faster, and offer twice the range at the same time. The breakthrough centers on a new, thickened electrode made up of vertically stacked layers that allows for easier transport of lithium ions.

Led by scientists at the University of Texas at Austin, the work was carried out in pursuit of high-power energy storage systems that could be put to use in electric vehicles of the future. One approach to this type of design involves using stacked layers of very fine two-dimensional materials to form the battery’s electrodes, but this does have its limits.

Thicker electrodes might mean more energy storage potential, but they also mean more ground for the lithium ions to cover. Horizontally aligned layers of electrode material forces the ions to snake back and forth as they exit and enter the electrodes, which leads to slower charge times.

“Two-dimensional materials are commonly believed as a promising candidate for high-rate energy storage applications because it only needs to be several nanometers thick for rapid charge transport,” said study author Guihua Yu. “However, for thick-electrode-design-based next-generation, high-energy batteries, the re-stacking of nanosheets as building blocks can cause significant bottlenecks in charge transport, leading to difficulty in achieving both high energy and fast charging.”

To achieve both high energy and fast charging, the scientists came up with a new way of putting together the thin layers of electrode material. The advance came via the use of magnetic fields to carefully manipulate the orientation of these layers, arranging them into vertical stacks rather than the typical horizontal form. This had the effect of creating “efficient pathways for mass transport” of the ions through the electrode.

“Our electrode shows superior electrochemical performance partially due to the high mechanical strength, high electrical conductivity, and facilitated lithium-ion transport thanks to the unique architecture we designed,” said study author Zhengyu Ju.

The team's electrodes far surpassed the performance of commercial electrodes, and another experimental battery with horizontally stacked electrode layers the team used as a control. The vertically stacked electrode was able to be recharged to 50% capacity in 30 minutes, whereas the horizontally stacked electrode took 2 hours and 30 minutes to charge to the same level.

The researchers say their dense and thick electrode offers some of the best capacity figures “reported in literature,” and believe it could lead to electric vehicles with twice the range offered by commercially available battery electrodes. There is a lot more work to do for that to come to fruition, with the team emphasizing that it is early days, and that it only applied the technique to a single type of battery electrode. They do, however, believe it could be a “potentially universal methodology.”

The research was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Source: University of Texas at Austin

Thickened battery electrodes hint at fast-charging EVs with doubled range (newatlas.com)

September 28, 1066 William of Normandy lands in England.

---- The background to the battle was the death of the childless King Edward the Confessor in January 1066, which set up a succession struggle between several claimants to his throne. Harold was crowned king shortly after Edward's death, but faced invasions by William, his own brother Tostig, and the Norwegian King Harald Hardrada (Harold III of Norway). Hardrada and Tostig defeated a hastily gathered army of Englishmen at the Battle of Fulford on 20 September 1066, and were in turn defeated by Harold at the Battle of Stamford Bridge five days later. The deaths of Tostig and Hardrada at Stamford Bridge left William as Harold's only serious opponent. While Harold and his forces were recovering, William landed his invasion forces in the south of England at Pevensey on 28 September 1066 and established a beachhead for his conquest of the kingdom. Harold was forced to march south swiftly, gathering forces as he went.

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Battle of Hastings - Wikipedia

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