Baltic Dry Index. 1086 +84 Brent Crude 94.99
Spot Gold 1712 US 2 Year Yield 3.40 -0.11
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 05/09/22 World 610,382,282
Deaths 6,504,020
"Let's
make sure that there is certainty during uncertain times in our economy."
President George W. Bush
In the Asian casinos, a mixed day so far. South Korea braces for a strong storm.
In the USA, another holiday.
In peaceful Canada, an inexplicable murder spree.
In Europe, no more gas via the Nord Stream One pipeline.
In the UK, finally after a needlessly long campaign to pick a new Conservative Party leader and new Prime Minster, the result around noon.
In the week ahead, the UK and EU will announce measures to mitigate the sky high price of gas and electricity.
All in all, something of a wait and see week.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade mixed; private survey shows Chinese services activity softened in
August
UPDATED SUN, SEP 4 2022 11:40 PM EDT
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Monday as investors digest the results of a
private survey on Chinese services sector activity.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1.29% in early trade, with the Hang Seng Tech index down more than 2%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell
0.21%, and the Topix index lost 0.17%.
The Shenzhen Component in
mainland China dipped 0.46%, and the Shanghai Composite slipped
0.22%.
China’s Caixin Services
Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 55.0, compared with July’s print of 55.5.
In South Korea, the Kospi rose
0.3% while the Kosdaq fell 0.93%. The S&P/ASX 200 in
Australia gained 0.24%.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.68% lower.
On Friday in the U.S., nonfarm
payrolls for August rose 315,000, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate. Unemployment
inched higher.
“Asset markets initially
recovered as an uptick in the U.S. unemployment rate due to a higher
participation rate was seen as a potential sign of easing inflationary
pressures in the US labor market,” ANZ Research said in a Monday note.
″[However,] the improved mood
didn’t last long, as news emerged that Gazprom is not planning on restarting
gas flows through Nord Stream 1,” the note said.
The Group of Seven nations
announced on Friday that it reached
an agreement to put a cap on Russian oil prices.
“The lack of reaction in the
global oil price suggests a degree of skepticism about the impact,” ANZ
Research wrote.
More
Asia
markets: Stocks trade mixed; Caixin services PMI data (cnbc.com)
S.Korea braces for 'very strong' typhoon, businesses curb operations
September
5, 2022 5:24 AM GMT+1
SEOUL, Sept 5
(Reuters) - Typhoon Hinnamnor neared South Korea on Monday, forcing flight
cancellations, suspensions of some business operations and closures of schools,
as the country raised its typhoon-alert level to its highest.
Heavy rain and
strong wind pounded the southern part of the country, with the typhoon
travelling northward at a speed of 24 km per hour (15 mph). Hinnamnor is
expected to make landfall southwest of the port city of Busan early on Tuesday,
after reaching waters off Jeju Island later on Monday.
President Yoon
Suk-yeol said on Monday he will be on emergency standby, a day after ordering
authorities to put all efforts into minimising damage from the typhoon that has
been classified as "very strong".
"Very strong
winds and heavy rains are expected across the country through to Tuesday due to
the typhoon, with very high waves expected in the coastal region along with
storm and tsunami," the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said.
According to KMA's
forecast, Hinnamnor is headed northeast toward Sapporo, Japan.
South Korea
classifies typhoons in four categories – normal, strong, very strong, super
strong – and Hinnamnor is expected to reach the country as a "very
strong" typhoon, according to the KMA. Typhoons under that classification
have wind speeds of up to 53 metres per second.
Warnings have been
issued across the southern cities, including Gwangju, Busan, Daegu and Ulsan,
following that in the southern island of Jeju, while the Central Disaster and
Safety Countermeasures Headquarters on Sunday upgraded its typhoon alert level
to the highest in its four-tier system, the first time in five years.
Busan city and
its neighbouring areas have received rain throughout the weekend, with more
rain forecast across the wider country for Monday and Tuesday.
No casualties
have been reported so far, though more than 100 people have been evacuated and
at least 11 facilities have been damaged by floods.
Steelmaker POSCO (005490.KS) told Reuters it is
considering suspending some of its production processes in the city of Pohang
on Tuesday, while SK Innovation (096770.KS), owner of South Korea’s top refiner
SK Energy, said it asked carrier ships not to operate until the typhoon passes.
More
S.Korea
braces for 'very strong' typhoon, businesses curb operations | Reuters
Russian
gas halt steps up pressure on euro, sterling
September 5, 2022 4:46 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, Sept 5
(Reuters) - The dollar hit a 20-year high against a basket of peers on Monday,
with sterling and the euro the biggest losers as Russia's halt on gas supply
down its main pipeline to Europe has sparked concerns over energy prices and
growth.
The euro touched
$0.9901 in early Asia trade, just above last month's trough of $0.99005.
Sterling hit a 2-1/2-year low at $1.1458, and remained close to its pandemic
nadir.
Russia scrapped a
Saturday deadline for flows down the Nord Stream pipeline to resume, citing an
oil leak in a turbine. It coincided with the Group of Seven finance ministers
announcing a price cap on Russian oil. read more
Similarly, the
pound has also been weighed down by concerns over rising energy costs. British
foreign minister Liz Truss said over the weekend she would set out immediate
action to tackle rising energy bills and increase energy supplies if she is, as
expected, to become Britain's next prime minister. read more
The yen , at 140.32
per dollar, was under pressure near a 24-year low. The risk-sensitive
Australian dollar slid 0.4% and was near a seven-week low at $0.6782.
The U.S. dollar
index hit a new two-decade high, surging to a top of 110.08.
"The first
order effect seems to be that the heightened geopolitical risk and consequent
adverse global demand shocks will probably be the effects dominating,"
said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in
Singapore.
"The adverse
demand shocks in a very unsavoury geopolitical environment is probably going to
trigger, and reflect, safe demand for the U.S. dollar ... the European
currencies are perhaps going to be the worst hit and on the back foot."
Outsized rate hikes
are on the cards this week. Markets have priced about a 75% chance of a 75
basis point (bp) hike in Europe and an almost 70% chance of a 50 bp hike in
Australia .
More
Russian
gas halt steps up pressure on euro, sterling | Reuters
Metal
Plants Feeding Europe’s Factories Face an Existential Crisis
Power-intensive aluminum smelters
say they need government support to survive.
September 4,
2022 at 8:01 AM GMT+1
More. Subscription
required.
Metal
Plants Feeding Europe’s Factories Are in Existential Crisis - Bloomberg
Finally,
I rather doubt that we’ve entered the age of the “megaflood”, but it makes
sense to make contingency plans just in case. Perhaps the property insurance
industry could represent private enterprise in the non-academic,
non-governmental part of the contingency planning.
The age of the
‘megaflood’ could be coming – and we must prepare now
3 September, 2022.
Extreme floods have wreaked havoc across Bangladesh, South Africa and Pakistan this year, and now scientists are warning that California could experience a “megaflood” which would wipe out its entire economy in weeks.
Parts of Europe could be devastated too – but how would it happen and are we ready?
According to new modelling, warming temperatures caused by climate change have already doubled the odds of a “megaflood” – flooding on a catastrophic scale – in California, from one in a 100 chance, to a one in a 50 chance.
If global temperatures climb by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1 degree Celsius, which current trends suggest they might, the annual likelihood will increase to nearly one in 30.
“We’re talking about a long
series, three to four weeks, of strong winter storms. A megastorm sequence
that could potentially result in the megaflood – a particularly severe and
widespread flood,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of
California, and an author of the study published in Science Advances.
“You would have rivers flowing under
major boulevards, under apartments, through movie studios – every part of the
state is at considerable risk,” Mr Swain told The Telegraph. Entire towns would
be ravaged beyond repair, forcing communities to resettle elsewhere, and
transportation networks would be wiped out.
A megaflood event is caused by a
rapid procession of “atmospheric rivers”, said Xingying Huang, who works for
the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, and is also an author
of the report. A megaflood differs from the flooding under way in Pakistan, and
in other parts of the world, but would have similar ramifications.
In California, a megaflood would be
caused by atmospheric currents funnelling water vapour towards the West Coast.
This would stretch hundreds of miles wide and more than 1,200 miles long. On
reaching the state, the currents would be forced upwards by the mountain. As
they cooled, cities would be pummelled with rain and snow.
Warmer air – caused by hotter
temperatures – holds a greater amount of moisture, Dr Huang explained, which
would lead to more “intense and insidious” precipitation than previously
experienced.
More
The age of the ‘megaflood’ could be coming – and we
must prepare now (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Italy's
costs to import energy will double to 100 billion euros
September
3, 2022
CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) -Italy's net energy
import costs are set to more than double this year to nearly 100 billion euros
($99.5 billion), the economy minister said, warning Rome could not spend
indefinitely to cushion the blow on the economy.
Italy relies on imports for
three-quarters of its power consumption, increasing its vulnerability to
Europe's current energy crisis.
Addressing the annual Ambrosetti
business forum on Saturday, Economy Minister Daniele Franco said Italy's high
debt reduced its room for manoeuvre going forward.
Measures to help firms and consumers
cope with high energy bills will be approved next week, following six aid
packages so far worth in total 52 billion euros, Franco said.
"To keep offsetting, at least in
part, rising energy prices through public finances is very costly and we could
never do enough," he said.
Franco
said it was key to address the functioning of Europe's energy market, where
soaring gas prices amid shrinking Russian exports have driven power prices
higher.
"What matters is to bring the
price of gas and energy back to sustainable levels," Franco said.
Speaking at the same conference on
Saturday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said it was necessary to
severe any links between the price of gas and that of electricity, moving to
"a total decoupling" of gas and power prices.
Italy's net energy imports cost 43
billion euros in 2021, broadly in line with previous years barring 2020 which
was affected by the COVID-19 virus outbreak, Franco said.
The increase of around 60 billion
euros expected in 2022 amounts to roughly three percentage points of gross
domestic product and will wipe out the net surplus in exchanges with the rest
of the world Italy recorded in recent years, Franco warned.
Italy's costs to
import energy will double to 100 billion euros (msn.com)
Business
leaders expect 14% inflation and recession by end of year
Friday
September 02 2022, 12.01am, The Times
The economy will fall into recession before the end of
the year with inflation rising to 14 per cent, according to a new survey of
business leaders.
Weak economic growth will continue into 2024, latest
forecasts from the British Chambers of Commerce show.
The organisation, which represents thousands of
businesses, has downgraded its outlook for the rise in British GDP, the main
measure of economic growth, to 3.3 per cent in 2022, down from 3.5 per cent in
its previous forecast three months ago.
It said Britain would enter a recession, defined as two
consecutive quarters of negative growth, by the third quarter of this year,
with GDP expected to have contracted in the second, third and fourth quarters.
The forecast suggests that the recession will hit
earlier than the Bank of England expects. The central bank
said last month that Britain would enter a recession in the final quarter of
this year, lasting until mid-2024, after inflation erodes the value of
household incomes and suppresses demand.
Inflation is now expected to hit 14
per cent this winter, up from a previous forecast of 10 per cent, when energy
bills rise by a further 80 per cent to above £3,500 a year on average,
according to the chamber’s forecasts. The Bank expects inflation to peak at
just over 13 per cent in October, while analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned
the rate could rise as high as 22 per cent when energy bills rise yet again in
January.
The BCC has called for the government
to help businesses with the cost of their energy bills by offering emergency
grants and temporary cuts in VAT on energy.
Alex Veitch, director of policy,
said: “Our latest quarterly economic forecast will not be of any comfort to
either consumers or businesses. The extreme inflationary pressures already
present are only likely to increase as we head towards Christmas, with the UK
economy already thought to be in recession. Tackling these pressures must be at
the top of the new prime minister’s inbox when they take up their position next
week.”
More
Business leaders
expect 14% inflation and recession by end of year | Business | The Times
The
next threat to global food supplies
The
resumption of exports from Ukraine eased shortages. Now droughts and heatwaves
are the problem
Sep 2nd 2022
Food prices are coming off their highs. Earlier in the year Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring as a blockade of Ukraine’s southern
ports choked off grain exports. In mid-July a un-brokered
agreement saw the resumption of grain shipments from Ukraine, easing
global prices. But as one crisis abates, another emerges. Hot, dry summers in
Europe and America are crimping the supply of some grains. In July the un’s Food Price Index, which measures international
prices across a basket of commodities, found that the cost of food dropped by
around 9%. New figures for August show a more modest fall, of around 2%.
More. Subscription required.
The next threat to
global food supplies | The Economist
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Russia
reports 50,000 COVID-19 cases for second day running
September 3, 2022
(Reuters) - Russia recorded more than 50,000
new daily COVID-19 cases for the second day running on Saturday, the
government's coronavirus task force said.
Over the last 24 hours, 51,699 cases
were detected across Russia - the most in a single day since March 9.
On Friday, Russia's caseload passed
the 50,000 mark for the first time in almost six months.
Infections rose in July and August as
new highly-transmissible variants of the coronavirus swept across the country.
The task force said 92 people had
died with COVID-19 over the last 24 hours.
According to excess fatality
statistics, Russia has been among the most severely affected countries by the
pandemic, with vaccine uptake slow and the government reluctant to impose
restrictions beyond a short lockdown in 2020.
Russia reports
50,000 COVID-19 cases for second day running (msn.com)
UK
Covid-19 infections fall 25% with levels dropping in most areas
2 September 2022
Covid-19 infections in most
parts of the UK are continuing to fall, with levels in England dropping
below one million for the first time since the start of June, figures show.
Hospital cases also remain on
a downwards trend, though health experts have warned the virus is likely to
become more prevalent in the autumn and winter.
Booster doses of Covid-19
vaccine will start being given to care home residents from next week as part of
a nationwide campaign offering a fresh jab to everyone aged 50 and over, to increase
protection ahead of future waves.
A total of 1.1 million people
in private households in the UK are estimated to have had coronavirus in the
week to August 23, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is a drop of 25% from
1.4 million the previous week.
Infections hit 3.8 million in
early July during the spread of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of the
virus, but have fallen in recent weeks.
Kara Steel, ONS senior
statistician for the Covid-19 infection survey, said: “Today’s data shows
infection levels continue to decrease across most of the UK, with the number of
people with Covid-19 in England now estimated to be under one million for the
first time since early June.
“Though
there is an uncertain trend in Northern Ireland, it is too early to say if this marks the end of the
recent decrease.
“We will monitor the data closely to
understand the impact of schools returning across the UK.”
Northern Ireland is the only one of
the four UK nations where the trend in infection levels is considered by the
ONS to be “uncertain”, with 35,800 people likely to have tested positive for
Covid-19 in the week to August 23, the equivalent of about one in 50.
This compares with 26,400, or one in
70, in the week to August 16 – though the change is too small for the ONS to
describe it as an increase.
The latest estimate for people
testing positive in England is 893,300, or one in 60, down from 1.2 million, or
one in 45.
More
UK Covid-19 infections fall 25% with levels dropping in most areas (msn.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
With sky high electricity prices, many
in the UK are now investigating solar power.
Egg
sees solar panel enquiries rise by 830% from last year
Published: 1 Sep 2022, 12:31
Clean
energy company Egg has seen enquiries for solar panels rise by 830% in the past
four months, as the UK was rocked by successive heatwaves in comparison to last
year.
With
solar energy generation rates high amid the heatwave in addition to the rise in
the wholesale gas price pushing the UK economy to the brink of a cost of living catastrophe, the renewable energy sector’s popularity has increased
significantly in the past few months.
In fact,
Egg data showed that its customers generated an average of 11.2kWh from their
solar panels on 29 August 2022 alone.
“We’re
used to seeing spikes in interest for solar panels during sunny spells, but the
level of enquiries we’ve received this year is unprecedented,” stated Gareth
Greppellini, business to business director of Egg.
“There
have been many weeks since the start of May when we’ve dealt with over ten
times the volume of customers we had in the same period last year.”
With the
heatwave highlighting the potential energy that could have been generated by
consumers, it is clear why its popularity has risen sharply on the past year.
Egg
offers solar panels with expert installation whilst also supplying and
installing batteries in order to store the solar energy. This provides
customers with a basis to supply their own energy at lower costs than that of
gas derived energy.
More
Egg sees solar
panel enquiries rise by 830% from last year | Solar Power Portal
“I
think we agree, the past is over.”
President
George W. Bush.
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