Baltic Dry Index. 965 -52 Brent Crude 96.49
Spot Gold 1704 US 2 Year Yield 3.45 -0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 31/08/22 World 608,192,561
Deaths 6,496,261
“Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”
In the casinos, the Grizzly Bear’s back from his summer holiday and he’s getting a lot of help from the Chairman Powell Fed.
But the real news today is in the next section down. All across the UK and Europe businesses are starting to get destroyed by the high price of electricity and it’s only going to get worse as autumn turns into winter.
On the plus side, yesterday’s break in the price of crude oil on optimism that a revised Iran/USA/EU/Russia nuclear deal is about to be announced, bringing with it the return of Iranian oil back to the market.
On the negative side, look away from the collapsing Baltic Dry Index now. Though not as useful as in the past, that BDI collapse suggests that the new global recession is already underway.
European markets
set to start September on a negative note
UPDATED THU, SEP 1 2022 12:33 AM EDT
European markets are set for a negative start to
the new trading month, having closed out August lower as traders grapple with
fears of higher interest rates and a looming economic downturn.
Market jitters have been
prevalent since Friday after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell. On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams called for a “somewhat
restrictive policy to slow demand.”
U.S. stocks fell for a
fourth-straight day on Wednesday, the last trading session of August, putting
the summer market comeback in doubt as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s
inflation-fighting efforts.
Meanwhile, shares
in the Asia-Pacific are trading lower Thursday as investors
digested the results of a private survey on China’s factory activity which
showed the sector slipping into contraction this month. U.S.
stock futures fell slightly on Wednesday night.
---- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rises to 14-year high
U.S. Treasury
yields rose further to 3.52% in Asia’s morning trade, the highest since
November 2007.
The yield on the
short-term 2-year
Treasury note reached similar
levels on Tuesday, when it hit 3.497%.
The yield on the
benchmark 10-year Treasury note also
rose to 3.22%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was
at 3.3%.
Yields move
inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.
European
markets open to close, data, news, earnings (cnbc.com)
US
Stocks End a Turbulent Month on a Down Note: Markets Wrap
·
Treasuries
were little changed after earlier paring declines
· Sentiment is cautious given Fed is tightening aggressively
August 30, 2022 at 11:34 PM GMT+1Updated on August 31, 2022 at 9:41 PM GMT+1
US stocks and bonds ended a turbulent August lower as traders recalibrated rate-hike expectations after central banks across the globe vowed to step up their fights against inflation.
All major US indexes had their worst month since June. Treasuries in August faced their biggest monthly loss since April as the Federal Reserve resolved to stay hawkish. Oil posted a third monthly drop -- the longest losing streak in more than two years -- hampered by the likelihood of slower global growth.
Federal Reserve officials in recent days quashed hopes of a dovish pivot, a view that had helped fuel bets that this year’s bear market is over. Since then, investors have been sifting through sometimes-conflicting economic data for further policy clues. While job openings data on Tuesday underscored tightness in the labor market, revamped ADP data on Wednesday showed US companies increased headcount at a relatively sluggish pace in August. All eyes will be on the job report on Friday for further hints about the central bank’s path.
“Now that the Jackson Hole dust is settling, markets have gained clarity on today’s investment question,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
“Yesterday’s question was ‘will inflation level down’ when today’s is ‘how big will the needed slowdown be.’ For now, markets are pricing a marked slowdown, not a fully-fledged recession.”
The Fed has ditched its soft-landing goal and is instead aiming for a “growth recession,” which would mean a protracted period of meager growth and rising unemployment.
More
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for August 31 - Bloomberg
Asia's factory activity slumps on China's COVID curbs, U.S. slowdown
September 1, 20224:27 AM GMT+1
· China's factory activity falls for first time in 3 months
· Japan's activity growth slows
· South Korea's activity shrinks by sharpest pace in 2 years
· Taiwan's activity slumps, input cost pressure easing
TOKYO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Asia's factory activity slumped in August as China's zero COVID curbs and cost pressures continued to hurt businesses, surveys showed on Thursday, darkening the outlook for the region's fragile economic recovery.
Manufacturing activity was weak in countries ranging from Japan, China, South Korea to Taiwan in a sign sluggish demand was adding to headaches for companies already suffering from lingering supply constraints.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's resolve to continue aggressive interest rate hikes is also dampening the business mood by stoking fears of recession in one of Asia's biggest export markets, analysts say.
"China's pandemic curbs and geo-political tensions with the United States continue to disrupt supply chains. Rising inflation is also hurting domestic demand across Asia," said Toru Nishihama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
"Fears of U.S. recession also aren't helping. U.S. and Chinese economies are engines of global growth so when both of them are wobbling, that spells trouble for businesses."
China's private Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) contracted for the first time in three months in August, data showed on Thursday, as soft demand, power shortages and fresh COVID-19 flare-ups disrupting production. read more
More
Asia's factory activity slumps on China's COVID curbs, U.S. slowdown | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Eurozone Inflation Jumps To New Record 9.1%
By Dave CLARK08/31/22 AT 6:36 AM
The eurozone inflation rate hit a new record in August, official data showed on Wednesday, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to hike rates to tame Ukraine war-fuelled prices.
Driven by soaring energy prices caused by Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the yearly inflation rate in the 19-country single currency area reached 9.1 percent, its highest since records began, according to Eurostat.
Consumer prices had accelerated to 8.9 percent in July.
The president of Germany's powerful federal central bank, Joachim Nagel, immediately declared that the ECB should plan for a "strong rise in interest rates for September".
"Otherwise, inflation expectations could become permanently entrenched above our target of two percent," he warned.
The headline rate has been rising since November 2021, amid global supply chain stresses. War erupted in Ukraine in February and the European summer was marked by a drought that helped force up food prices.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting on September 8, after first increasing them in July for the first time in a decade. Rates had been kept low as Europe emerged from its coronavirus slump.
More
Eurozone Inflation Jumps To New Record 9.1% (ibtimes.com)
German inflation hits 40-year high as calls mount for bigger ECB rate rises
Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy driven by soaring costs of energy and food
30 August, 2022
German inflation accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.8 per cent in the year to August, bolstering calls for the European Central Bank to accelerate the pace of interest rate rises when its policymakers meet next week.
Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy were mostly driven by the soaring cost of energy and food, lifting inflation 0.4 percentage points from July despite recent government measures to cushion the blow for households.
The figures supported calls by ECB governing council members for the bank to be more aggressive in its policy response to the surge in inflation, which has hit its highest level since the euro was created 23 years ago and is expected to have accelerated further in August.
Some, such as Austrian central bank boss Robert Holzmann, have publicly called for the ECB to discuss stepping up the pace of rate rises from an initial half percentage point rise in July to a three-quarter point increase at next week’s meeting.
The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent wholesale gas and electricity prices surging to record levels in Europe in recent weeks and pushed up the cost of fertiliser and other agricultural commodities such as wheat.
In August, German energy prices rose 35.6 per cent and food prices 16.6 per cent. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose to 3.1 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent in July.
Some ECB rate-setters worry the inflationary shock caused by the disruption of the invasion of Ukraine has been accentuated by the demand shock following the reopening of European economies as coronavirus restrictions were ended earlier this year.
“The economy has held up well and some of the factors that helped in the second quarter are likely to carry over into the third quarter,” said Klaas Knot, the Dutch central bank governor, speaking at an event in Copenhagen hosted by Danske Bank on Tuesday.
“The broadening and deepening of our inflation problem generates the need to act forcefully,” said Knot, adding that he expected the ECB to start shrinking its balance sheet by the end of this year, with the issue likely to be on the agenda in October or December.
German inflation continued to rise despite government action, including lower duty on fuel and energy bills and a subsidised €9 monthly train ticket. Many of the measures will expire in September, making it likely that inflation will jump even higher.
More
31 August, 2022 Investing.com
French Inflation Rises by 6.5% in August – Insee
-- French price growth decelerated by more than expected in August, edging down from its highest mark since the early 1990s during the previous month, but still remains at a historically elevated level.
The country's closely-watched consumer price index rose by 6.5% when harmonized with the European Union's methodology. Economists had anticipated the reading to slow to 6.7% in August, after the key measure of domestic inflation jumped by 6.8% in July.
French Inflation Rises by 6.5% in August - Insee (msn.com)
Kendal's Ye Old Fleece Inn reveals shocking energy bill increase
25th August
A KENDAL pub boss was shocked to be quoted an increase of more than £100,000 for its energy bill.
The Ye Old Fleece Inn, located on Highgate, shared on social media they had been told their electricity bill in the next few months would hit £124,000.
“We have just been quoted £124,000 for our electricity bill from October," the post said.
“This is not sustainable for small business, what is the answer?”
Since the cost-of-living crisis began, individuals, homeowners and businesses have struggled with increasing bills.
A spokesman from Cumbria Chamber of Commerce said: "The increasing costs are worrying for business owners in all sectors.
“With so many pressures on businesses some are being forced to re-evaluate their viability which is devastating.
“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and if they aren’t given the support, they need many will cease to exist.
“We’re maintaining a dialogue with our members regarding this issue and feeding back their concerns to government, lobbying hard for support to ensure the survival of our local businesses.”
The post by the Fleece has prompted reactions regarding the amount.
The Manchester based GRUB responded: “Our electricity bill went from 14k to 50k a year over the past 6 months & we're one of the lucky ones to get a fixed price in January because it's almost doubled again since then.
“Genuinely looking in to a generator option for our traders now.
Kendal's Ye Old Fleece Inn reveals shocking energy bill increase | The Westmorland Gazette
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.
China's Shenzhen enters new four-day lockdown over COVID-19 outbreak
AUG. 30, 2022 / 3:39 PM
Aug. 30 (UPI) -- China's "Silicon Valley" manufacturing hub ordered new lockdowns, shutting down the world's largest electronics market in the southern city of Shenzhen in response to a new outbreak of COVID-19 cases.
On Monday, the Shenzhen government said residents living in six districts are now required to stay at home for four days, due to heightened COVID-19 prevention and control measures.
The stay-at-home order lasts through Thursday. During that time, residents are only allowed to leave to take mandated "nucleic acid tests on a daily basis at designated locations, purchasing daily necessities, disposing of garbage and seeking for emergency medical treatment," according to the government statement. Only one person per household is permitted to leave at a given time.
The four-day lockdown comes after authorities reported 24 new locally transmitted confirmed cases and 11 new locally transmitted asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 on Monday.
The city also reported three imported confirmed cases and three imported asymptomatic cases.
Patients were put under closed-loop management upon arrival, before being transferred to a hospital.
All businesses in the affected areas have also been shut down, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and hospitals.
In-restaurant dining is also suspended while businesses have been told to switch to working from home.
China has long enforced a strict zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy.
Shenzhen has a population of over 17 million people.
The Longgang and Longhua districts are home to factories run by Foxconn Technology Group, which is a parts supplier to Apple. Both of the company's campuses were operating normally, a Foxconn spokesperson told the South China Morning Post.
This is not the first time the city has been shut down. Shenzhen was idled in March after authorities ordered most production be suspended and employees work from home amid a surge in COVID-19 cases. That lockdown came after 75 locally transmitted cases were confirmed.
China's Shenzhen enters new four-day lockdown over COVID-19 outbreak - UPI.com
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker.
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Interesting, but I’m sceptical it would work for long or be cost efficient.
Contra-rotating floating turbines promise unprecedented scale and power
Loz Blain August 30, 2022
Taking wind farms way offshore can certainly help make them less obtrusive, and open up a lot more opportunities – but as the ocean gets deeper, conventional horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) begin making less and less sense. HAWTs need to hold a lot of heavy components – drivetrains, gearboxes, generators and their colossal blades – right up the top of a long pole, so mounting them on floating platforms that don't want to tip over is a huge challenge – not to mention maintaining the business end of a turbine so far above the ground.
Some engineers and operators believe this could be a niche where VAWTs could shine instead. Their blades reach upward, but all their other heavy bits are at the bottom, so their natural tendency is to sit upright. Also, they can accept wind energy from any direction, rather than needing to turn to face into the wind, cutting down on some more heavy gear you'd find up high on a HAWT. They're typically far less efficient than a regular three-blade HAWT, sucking less energy out of a given breeze, but on the other hand, you can place them closer together without a drop in performance, meaning they could potentially suck more energy out of a given patch of ocean.
And so to the device at hand. World Wide Wind has proposed an entirely new type of floating VAWT specifically designed for offshore deployment and massive scalability. Indeed, it's two VAWTs in one; the lower one is fixed to the outer casing of the tower, and set to rotate one way, and the upper one is mounted to a shaft running right up the middle of the tower, and it's set to rotate the other way.
Under the surface, one turbine is fixed to the rotor, the other to the "stator," doubling the relative speed of rotation as compared to a static stator, and generating a whole bunch of electricity we can burn our toast with. The company calls this a contra-rotating vertical turbine, or CRVT.
Again, the heaviest parts and the ones requiring most maintenance are at the bottom, below the buoyant pontoon, right down near where the tethers and power cable attach. But the whole thing isn't designed to sit perfectly upright; these enormous towers will tilt with the wind. World Wide Wind says this, and the blade designs, which sweep a conical area, helps to reduce the turbulent wake downstream of each floating tower, allowing operators to cram even more of these things into a given site. The ability to tilt will also help these things resist sudden, violent wind gusts and damaging vibrations.
More
Contra-rotating floating turbines promise unprecedented scale and power (newatlas.com)
“More than a decade ago, a Supreme Court decision literally wiped off the books of fifty states statutes protecting the rights of unborn children. Abortion on demand now takes the lives of up to 1.5 million unborn children a year. Human life legislation ending this tragedy will some day pass the Congress, and you and I must never rest until it does. Unless and until it can be proven that the unborn child is not a living entity, then its right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness must be protected.”
Ronald Reagan.
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