Baltic
Dry Index. 1521 -32 Brent Crude 67.63
Spot Gold 3296 US 2 Year Yield 3.73 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.042 trillion
US GDP 30.104 trillion.
The United States' national
debt could rise to dangerous levels due in part to President Donald Trump's tax
plans, Germany's state-owned KfW investment and development bank warned on
Friday.
The KfW said it is conceivable for the debt ratio to climb from around 120% to more than 170% of economic output within 10 years.
German lender warns Trump could trigger US debt spiral
It is the last trading day, in the stock casinos, of the month, quarter and half year. Expect dress up Monday to buy, buy, buy, AI and technology stocks. The all important professional money manager half year bonuses depend on it.
Canada, faced with a Trump pullout from trade negotiations, rolled over, and killed the Digital Services Tax due to take effect from today.
Boyed by this Canadian capitulation, expect Trump to press on to making Canada the USA’s 51st State. By July 4th?
Not much need for my input this morning, except to alert readers to the rising potential for a crops failure in much of Europe.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as investors
parse a slew of data releases
Updated Mon, Jun 30 2025 12:32 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday as
investors parsed details on trade negotiations and a slew of data points,
including South
Korea and Japan’s
industrial output figures for May and China’s purchasing managers’
index readings for June.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted
for the third consecutive month in June, fueling hopes for more
stimulus to cushion the impact of ongoing trade disruptions between the
superpower and the U.S.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index was flat,
while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost
0.45%.
Japanese stocks extended their gains
from the previous session, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 hitting
an over 11-month high. The 225-share average climbed 1.48%, while the
broader Topix index advanced 0.77%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index added 0.82%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq ticked up 0.31% in choppy trade.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 increased by
0.59%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex
were flat in early trade.
U.S.
equity futures rose in Asia hours before the year stretches into the
second half.
All three key benchmarks on Wall
Street rose sharply in last Friday’s session. The broad-based S&P 500 hit a new record
in more than four months after ending the session about 0.5% higher at 6,173.07
— overtaking its previous record of 6,147.43.
The Nasdaq Composite also
reached an all-time high, closing at a record after adding about 0.5%, while
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average rose nearly 1%.
The three benchmarks have staged a sharp
recovery this month from the lows seen in April during the height of trade
policy tensions. The whipsaw of global trade negotiations can quickly sway
market sentiment and pose an ongoing threat to the strength of this rally.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
The global week ahead: A hectic half first heralds
a volatile second
Published Sun, Jun 29 2025 2:06 AM EDT
“Politics isn’t wagging the tail – it’s
shaking the entire dog.”
These strong words from one wealth manager
to CNBC last week capture a hectic first half of trading. They also set the
stage for an uncertain second half, where “geoeconomics” looks set to remain a
dominant market force.
This week, expect attention to return to
monetary policy, as central bankers from across the globe — who have kept their
heads down amid political tensions — prepare to speak at the ECB Forum in
Sintra, Portugal.
Halftime report
A lot has happened in the last six months,
with trade tensions and truces sending equity markets across the globe haywire.
The VIX volatility index — also known as
the Wall Street fear gauge — spiked in April as tariff threats, followed by
tariff pauses, caused huge intraday swings across major indices. Meanwhile,
“black swan” moments in the Middle East also kept investors on edge.
Amid all the uncertainty, some stock
markets showed remarkable resilience: Germany’s Dax remains the outperformer in
Europe, up over 18% so far this year, followed by London’s FTSE 100 up around
9%, while the French CAC 40 lags with around 5% gains.
But what does this all mean for trading in
the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs warns that, “elevated policy
uncertainty paired with a worsening macro backdrop are likely to support higher
equity volatility in the next months.”
Central banks take center stage at Sintra
As Goldman’s warning rings loudly in
investors’ ears, the stage is set for central banks to return to the limelight.
This week, the town of Sintra in Portugal
plays host to the annual ECB Forum, where European central bankers are joined
by their international counterparts to exchange views on current policy issues.
The sun may well be shining in Portugal —
but President Donald Trump’s recent
comments will no doubt cast a shadow over the meeting, as he continues
to put unprecedented pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Just last week, Trump’s name-calling of
Powell ramped up, sparking talk of a so-called “shadow
Fed chair,” who could keep an eye on things until taking over as chair next
year.
Powell also put the pressure on his
monetary policy peers, calling on central bankers to hold steady until they see
the impact of trade tariffs: “We are well positioned to wait and learn more
about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to
our policy stance.”
Europe will need to decide how much it
lets the U.S. approach dictate its policy, with ECB President Christine Lagarde
opening proceedings in Sintra with a speech on Monday evening.
Expect a punchy tone; her recent op-ed in the Financial Times saw her call for the euro
to take advantage of the current environment and “gain global prominence.”
More
Global
week ahead: A hectic half first heralds a volatile second
Canada Rescinds Digital-Services Tax to Salvage
Trade Discussions With U.S.
30 June 2025.
Canada announced late on Sunday that it is
rescinding a digital-services tax in a bid to salvage trade discussions with the U.S. after
President Trump paused talks on Friday.
Canada’s finance department was set to
collect billions of dollars from U.S. tech companies starting on Monday, when
payments were due under a digital-services tax that Canada’s Liberal
government implemented last year, under former Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau.
On Sunday, the government announced it
would pause collections and introduce legislation in Parliament to rescind the
tax, “in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement
with the United States.”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke
with Trump on Sunday, said a spokeswoman for the prime minister’s office. The
two leaders decided to move forward with trade discussions with a goal of
reaching agreement by July 21.
The White House didn’t immediately respond
for comment.
In an interview with Fox News broadcast
earlier on Sunday, Trump complained about “certain taxes” that Canada had
imposed. “People don’t realize, Canada is very nasty to deal with,” he said.
Canada’s move comes two days after Trump
announced that he had terminated trade talks with Canada over what he called an
“egregious” tax that unfairly targeted U.S. tech companies.
Canada’s 3% tax on technology companies’
revenue from providing digital services to Canadian users or sales of Canadian
user data was retroactive to revenue dating to 2022, and fueled opposition from
America’s biggest tech companies, Washington-based lobby groups, senior
congressional leaders and officials in both the Biden and Trump
administrations.
On June 19, despite the U.S.’s opposition,
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said Canada would remain firm on
keeping the digital-services tax.
More
Canada
Rescinds Digital-Services Tax to Salvage Trade Discussions With U.S.
Elon Musk rips into ‘utterly insane’ Trump-backed
megabill
Published Sat, Jun 28 2025 6:12 PM EDT Updated
Sat, Jun 28 2025 8:21 PM EDT
Elon
Musk ripped into the Senate’s massive domestic
policy package on Saturday, calling it “utterly insane” and
destructive,” pointing to provisions in the bill that would raise taxes on many
solar, battery, geothermal, wind and nuclear energy projects.
Musk’s automaker Tesla produces, sells and
installs both battery energy storage systems, and solar photovoltaics as part
of its energy division.
Musk’s remarks come weeks after he first
hurled harsh criticism against the bill, which is backed by President Donald Trump.
“The latest Senate draft bill will destroy
millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!”
Musk wrote on X, the social network that he owns.
“Utterly insane and destructive. It gives
handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the
future,” he continued, hours before the Senate was poised to hold a key vote on
the package.
The bill would also create a new subsidy
for coal that’s used for the production of steel.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO, who is
the wealthiest man in the world, has been an outspoken critic of Trump’s “big,
beautiful bill,” views that in part triggered a public
feud that erupted earlier this month between the two men.
Musk previously called the bill a “disgusting
abomination” and urged lawmakers to “KILL the BILL.”
Musk’s earlier comments led to the
deterioration of his relationship with the president — a dramatic turnaround
after the tech magnate had donated more than $250 million to Trump’s
re-election campaign and went on to lead the Trump administration’s controversial
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
More
In other news, potential trouble with
Europe’s crops.
Europe drought expanding; crops may soon be
affected
06.26.2025
By Drew Lerner
KANSAS CITY — European crops have been
enduring less-than-usual rainfall during much of the growing season this year.
So far, the impact on production has been
somewhat limited, although Germany reported some notable losses from dryness
that occurred earlier this spring and France has reported some similar
concerns. Other areas in the continent have experienced some unusual dryness at
times as well, but the impact has been kept relatively low.
France and Germany have been among the
driest nations in the continent relative to normal this year and the situation
in France has become more threatening in recent weeks. Soil moisture is not
only limited in France and parts of Germany, but it is also low in many areas
from Spain and Portugal through Italy to the Balkan Countries and Ukraine.
Drying in southern Europe during the
summer is not unusual, but concern is rising over water supply, soil moisture
and crop conditions in western parts of the continent because of a ridge of
high pressure that is expected to dominate the balance of June and possibly in
a part of July as well.
Below-normal precipitation
France and Germany have been at the heart
of dryness this year with both countries reporting below-normal precipitation
every month since January. June has been different for Germany, with some
much-needed rain bolstering topsoil moisture and improving crop conditions
during the first half of the month. Much more rain is needed in Germany to
restore river and stream flows as well as water reservoir levels.
France was not relieved of dryness earlier
this month when rain fell across Germany and the North Sea region. That
precipitation event was extremely important, and it brought timely relief to
most grain, oilseed and sugar beet production areas at just about the right
time to reverse crop stress and improve production potential. It is becoming
apparent that the relief may have been temporary.
High-pressure ridge
A ridge of high pressure has been building
over Western Europe recently and it is predicted to continue a frequent
presence in the region through much of the next few weeks. The high-pressure
ridge will perpetuate the below-normal precipitation bias that has been
prevailing since January and it also will induce warmer-than-usual
temperatures.
Crops have managed the drier bias in
Europe relatively well so far this year because of a general lack of hot
weather. Temperatures have been warmer than usual at times, but most of the
warmer days were countered by short-term bouts of cooling and some shower
activity to help mitigate the drought.
Now that temperatures have a good chance
of being in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit (upper 20s to middle 30s Celsius)
frequently during the balance of June and early July the potential for crop
moisture stress is going to be much higher. Dryness is always a concern, but
when heat is added it does not take long for the concern to turn into a crisis
with more serious moisture shortages and a higher level of stress to crops and
livestock.
Early indications do not suggest a super
strong ridge of high pressure because of a relatively strong jet stream in the
Northern Hemisphere; however, warmer-than-usual conditions will still enhance
drying rates and accelerate the decline in water supply and crop conditions.
France facing dry conditions
France has been at the center of the
driest conditions in recent weeks. Germany received a little break with the
early June rain that fell, but the entire region from the UK through France,
Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg to Spain, Portugal and a part
of Italy will be subjected to restricted rain and daily warm to hot weather.
This pattern will last through the end of June and into at least the first week
to 10 days of July. Some short-term relief is possible infrequently with
periodic rain and slightly cooler temperatures. However, the ridge of high
pressure will persevere. Frequent resurges of heat and dryness will see to it
that more drying occurs than there is benefit from rain.
Warmer bias to linger?
All of Western Europe will be involved
with the drier and warmer bias for a while; however, Spain and Portugal
irrigate most of their spring and summer crops and winter precipitation was
abundant enough to raise water reservoir levels in support of summer
irrigation. Italy is also in a little better position to handle the drier days
coming up, but Germany, like France, has low water reserves and significant
rain is needed to ensure sufficient water for drinking, irrigation and
shipping.
Drier biased conditions are also a concern
in a part of the Balkan Countries, in particular the lower Danube River Basin.
Unirrigated crop areas in the basin do need rain and not much is expected for a
while. Dryness in southeastern Europe is not nearly as chronic as it may be in
parts of France and Germany, leaving those areas at the top of the list of
places in the world that may be facing a more notable decline in spring and
summer crop production potential. The region must be closely monitored.
Europe drought
expanding; crops may soon be affected | Baking Business
Tourist dies in Majorca as 9am to 2pm outdoor ban
now in force
28 June 2025
A Dutch tourist died from heatstroke while
out hiking with friends in Majorca. The 34-year-old
was walking on the Camí de Son Sales trail near Sóller, when he collapsed in
the hot
weather.
----Many parts of Europe are experiencing soaring temperatures that
are expected to climb even higher in the coming days as a deadly "heat
dome" takes effect.
A heat dome is an area of high pressure
that compresses hot air in the atmosphere and causes heatwaves.
The mercury
is set to surpass 40C in some parts of southern Europe, with no
respite from the heat in sight.
Temperatures of up to 42C are anticipated
in Portugal's capital Lisbon in the next few days.
The hot weather has triggered wildfires in
both Italy and Greece, with warnings also issued in France and Portugal.
Authorities in Greece evacuated homes and
dispatched water-bombing aircraft as 130 firefighters battled wildfires that
erupted south of Athens on Friday.
They also banned outdoor activities for
builders and delivery staff from 9am to 2pm (GMT) and advised against
unnecessary travel.
Tourist dies in
Majorca as 9am to 2pm outdoor ban now in force
Finally, remembering Tunguska 117 years on.
The Tunguska explosion rocked Siberia 117 years
ago
June 29, 2025
The Tunguska explosion: June 30, 1908
On June 30, 1908, the largest asteroid
impact in
recorded history occurred on a warm summer morning in a remote part of Siberia,
Russia. Now, we observe Asteroid
Day each
year on June 30, on the anniversary of what’s now known as the Tunguska
explosion.
The explosion happened over the sparsely
populated northern forestland above the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in
what is present-day Krasnoyarsk Krai.
The blast released enough energy to kill
reindeer and flatten an estimated 80 million trees over an area of 830 square
miles (2,150 square km). Witnesses reported seeing a fireball – a bluish
light, nearly as bright as the sun – moving across the sky. A flash and a sound
similar to artillery fire was said to follow the fireball. And, according to
the American
Physical Society,
a powerful shockwave broke windows hundreds of miles away, knocking people off
their feet.
Yet, ultimately, decades passed before
anyone could explain the event.
More
The Tunguska
explosion rocked Siberia 117 years ago
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
recession fears rise as personal income and spending fall in May
FP
News Desk • June
28, 2025, 08:55:37 IST
Amid
the fears of recession and inflation, the US consumer spending declined for the
first time since January. According to the new data released by the US
Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income decreased by $109.6 billion (0.4 per
cent at a monthly rate) in May. The Commerce Department report also showed that
consumer spending fell 0.1 per cent last month after rising 0.2 per cent in
April.
The
50 per cent drop-off in motor vehicle sales in May was a significant driver of
the overall spending retreat. The vehicle industry saw a sharp decline in May
because consumers rushed to dealerships to buy cars in March and April, fearing
that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would send
those costs soaring.
However,
the Friday report also reflected that the consumers pulled back on spending at
restaurants and hotels. It is pertinent to note that Consumer spending powers
more than two-thirds of American economic activity. The sharp decline prompted
concerns among economists who argue that the steep tariffs on imported goods
will erode Americans’ resiliency.
Consumer
economy plunders over fear of Trump Tariffs
According
to the data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal income
fell more than expected for the month, sinking 0.4 per cent. However, the
economists argued that the May decline was largely a reflection of Social
Security payments returning to more typical levels.
In
March and April, former public workers received large retroactive payments made
under the Social Security Fairness Act due to reduced benefits under the prior
legislation. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN that
despite the recent months’ volatility in those income numbers, the trend is one
where income growth “remains quite subdued."
“Real
disposable income (what’s left after taxes) is currently trending at a pace of
1.7 per cent year over year,” he said. “That will bring down consumer spending
from the 3 per cent (annual) pace that we were accustomed to through most of
2024 closer to 1.5 per cent over the coming months and perhaps even below 1% in
the back half of 2025.”
He
cautioned that the closer the spending growth gets to 1 per cent, the more
vulnerable the US economy becomes. “You’re much more subject to a stalling,” he
said. “You’re exposed to price shocks, oil price shocks, tariff shocks,
interest rate shocks, stock market shocks, and therefore you’re more at risk of
experiencing a more significant slowdown or possibly a recession.”
However,
the figures are still concerning. Major economic forecasts now predict sharply
slower growth for the rest of 2025, with real GDP expected to
weaken to as low as 1.1 per cent by year-end, compared to 2.5 per cent in late
2024. Economists warn that persistent inflation, higher tariffs, and policy
uncertainty are putting additional pressure on household budgets and business
confidence.
Some
analysts caution the US could be facing stagflation — a combination of slow
growth and stubborn inflation — rather than a typical recession. The
probability of a US recession in 2025 remains significant, with estimates
ranging from 25 per cent to 40 per cent depending on the model and scenario.
While the latest data do not guarantee an imminent recession, the combination
of falling income, weaker spending, and negative leading indicators has
heightened risks and could signal more economic trouble ahead.
US recession fears
rise as personal income and spending fall in May
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New silicon anode battery retains 90% power after 300 cycles;
promises long-range EVs
June 27, 2025
NEO Battery Materials, based in Canada,
has reached a major milestone in its quest to develop an electric vehicle (EV)
battery that can achieve a 1,000-mile range.
The company’s advanced silicon EV
battery, called the P-300N, has shown over 90 percent capacity retention after
300 charge cycles in full-cell format testing, exceeding the original target of
80 percent.
This performance positions the P-300N
among the most stable and cost-effective battery materials globally.
Silicon EV battery
The P-300N uses metallurgical-grade
silicon (MG-Si) as its core anode input.
MG-Si is widely recognized as the most
cost-effective silicon feedstock for battery-grade materials.
MG-Si costs approximately half as much
as graphite by weight and enables price reduction strategies for
high-energy-density battery production.
Compared to alternatives like silane gas
or silicon nanoparticles, MG-Si offers substantial manufacturing advantages in
cost scalability and supply chain availability.
NEO’s latest tests were performed in
full coin cells, complete lithium-ion battery units containing cathode and
anode materials.
These tests provide a realistic
performance profile by
simulating commercial-level energy storage behavior, unlike half-cell
configurations, which rely on lithium metal as the counter electrode and do not
account for actual lithium-ion inventory limits.
The company reports that the P-300N cell
maintained high capacity stability across standard cycling conditions,
typically requiring 30 days to complete 300 charge-discharge iterations.
More
New silicon anode battery retains 90% power after 300 cycles; promises
long-range EVs
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The KfW warned of a tipping point at which investors might lose
confidence in the US.
"Without countermeasures such as tax increases or spending
cuts, the US could enter a far bigger debt spiral than previously
assumed," the bank wrote in a study.
Proposals such as Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill
Act," which includes permanent tax cuts and still requires Senate
approval, are likely to further increase the structural deficit. International
confidence in the US economy is at stake, the bank warns.
----"Should market confidence wane, capital outflows,
rising risk premiums and a dangerous interest-debt spiral could be set in
motion," writes chief economist Dirk Schumacher.
German lender
warns Trump could trigger US debt spiral
