Baltic
Dry Index. 1093 +45
Brent Crude 80.54
Spot Gold 2668 US 2 Year Yield 4.40 unch.
They were a people so primitive they did not know how to get money, except by working for it.
Joseph Addison. (About the Irish?)
In the stock casinos, the flight out of the AI high tech bubble?
Have/are global bonds calling time on the great US stock bubble?
With US mortgages back at seven percent, is it all over for the real estate bubble in Florida? What about real estate in LA/CA?
With more questions than answers and US inflation figures today and tomorrow, any sign of inflation returning will make Warren Buffett’s selling look like a stroke of genius.
Asia markets mostly rise after Wall Street’s mixed
moves that saw investors rotate out of tech stocks
Updated Tue, Jan 14 202511:10 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday
after a mixed session on Wall Street that saw the Dow soar and the Nasdaq slip
as investors rotated out of tech stocks.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.41%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 climbed 1.74%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.32%,
after falling for three straight sessions.
Japan’s markets were the only outlier,
with the Nikkei 225 falling
2.1%. The Topix dipped 1.48%.
South Korea’s Kospi traded up 0.25% while
the Kosdaq added 0.85%. Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose to 2.755,
its highest on record at since 2007, LSEG data showed.
Investors will continue monitoring India’s
rupee after it weakened to a record low against the U.S. dollar. India on
Monday reported
inflation data for December, which declined for a second straight month
year on year, coming in just below expectations at 5.22% and boosting
the case for prospective interest rate cuts.
Thailand will be releasing its consumer
confidence index for December.
Overnight
in the U.S., the Dow Jones
Industrial Average climbed, outperforming the market, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped as
traders continued to sell off major tech stocks that have powered the bull
market.
The 30-stock Dow rose 358.67 points, or
0.86%, to close at 42,297.12 as investors rotated into nontech shares such
as Caterpillar, JPMorgan and UnitedHealth. Meanwhile, the
tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.38% to 19,088.10. The S&P 500 inched up 0.16%,
ending at 5,836.22.
All three benchmarks have declines for the
past two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage.
Asia
markets live: India rupee, Japan current account balance
European markets set to reverse negative momentum
at the open, but bond yields are still in focus
Updated Tue, Jan 14 2025 12:43 AM EST
European markets are heading for a
positive open Tuesday, reversing negative sentiment in the region, but
investors will be keeping a close eye on borrowing costs for a number of core
European economies this week as bond yields remain elevated.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 4 points higher at 8,226, Germany’s DAX up 106 points at
20,241, France’s CAC up
66 points at 7,472 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 272 points at
35,082, according to data from IG.
Trading updates are set to come from Ocado, JD Sports, Persimmon and OMV on Tuesday. Lindt & Sprüngli will
release its latest earnings.
Major European stock markets fell on
Monday amid worries over rising government bond yields and a surging U.S.
dollar, with the pan-European Stoxx
600 index seeing most sectors closing in the red.
Euro zone and U.K.
government bond yields, as well as U.S. Treasurys, are being closely
watched this week after the interest rate on short and long-dated government
debt climbed to fresh multi-month highs last week and remained elevated on
Monday.
Asia-Pacific
markets and U.S.
stock futures rose overnight as investors braced themselves for the
U.S.′ latest producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation.
Economists polled
by Dow Jones predict that headline PPI grew 0.4%, while the core
figure, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%.
The reading comes ahead of the closely
followed consumer price index report on Wednesday. Both reports will inform the
Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome
Start to New Year
Mon, January 13, 2025 at 1:12 PM GMT
(Bloomberg) -- For those unsettled by the
relentless rise in government bond yields in the US and across much of the
world lately, the message from markets is getting clearer by the day: Get used
to it.
The world’s biggest bond market and global
bellwether is leading a reset higher in borrowing costs, with the prospect of a
prolonged period of elevated rates carrying consequences for economies and
assets everywhere.
Just days into 2025, yields on US
government debt are surging as the risks to supposedly super-safe assets mount.
The economy continues to power ahead — Friday’s blowout employment report
provided the latest evidence — while the Federal Reserve is rethinking the
timing of further interest-rate cuts and Donald Trump is returning to the White
House with policies prioritizing growth over debt and price fears as borrowing
has soared.
The rate on 10-year notes alone has soared
more than a percentage point in four months and now is within sight of the 5%
barrier last breached briefly in 2023 and otherwise not seen since before the
global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. Yields edged higher on Monday
as traders’ expectations for Fed easing dwindled further and oil prices rose.
Longer-dated US bonds have already touched
5%, with that milestone now seen by many on Wall Street as the new normal for
the price of money. Similar spikes are playing out internationally, with
investors increasingly wary of debt from the UK to Japan.
“There is a tantrum-esque type of
environment here and it’s global,” said Gregory Peters, who helps oversee about
$800 billion as co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income.
For some, the shift upward in yields is
part of a natural realignment after years of a near-zero rate environment
following the emergency measures taken after the financial crisis and then
Covid. But others see new and worrisome dynamics that present major challenges.
Given its role as a benchmark for rates
and signal of investment sentiment, the tensions in the $28 trillion US bond
market threaten to impose costs elsewhere. Households and businesses will find
it more expensive to borrow, with US mortgage rates already back at around 7%,
while otherwise upbeat stock investors are beginning to fret higher yields
could be a poison pill for their bull market.
More
Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year
In other news.
Inflation fears mount as oil prices surge
13 January 2025
Oil prices have risen to a six-month high,
raising fresh inflation fears for Rachel Reeves as she grapples with a surge in borrowing costs.
Brent crude has risen as much as 2.4pc
today to more than $81 - hitting its highest level since August following new
US sanctions on Russian oil announced last week.
It comes as the Chancellor already faces
pressure from bond markets as investors are spooked by Britain’s rising
inflation and weak growth.
Long-term government borrowing costs rose
to a fresh 27-year high today ahead of inflation figures on Wednesday which are
expected to show prices rose by 2.6pc in the year to December.
Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown
said: “Inflation concerns are set to be exacerbated with a jump in oil prices,
which is set to filter through to costs at the pumps.”
David Morrison of Trade Nation said:
“Crude oil certainly looks as if it has finally broken out above its long term
downtrend which has kept prices suppressed since September 2023, or even going
back to March 2022 when it peaked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
He added: “Fundamentally, crude is getting
a boost from the cold weather across Europe and parts of the US.
“It is also getting a lift from fresh US
sanctions on Russian oil sales. The energy sector is getting an overdue lift
now, as oil and natural gas heads higher following a long period in the
doldrums.”
Inflation
fears mount as oil prices surge
China exported
a record amount of goods last year, swelling its trade surplus to
almost $1 trillion and underscoring how global commerce remains unbalanced
despite government protectionism and efforts by companies to diversify their
supplier bases.
US
importers trying to buy as
much from China as they can before Donald Trump returns to the White House
are driving part of the trade gap, with exports to the US in December rising to
the highest in two years and taking the total for the year to $525 billion.
The
Chinese surplus with the 10 countries in Asean also jumped to a record, with
part of that likely driven by exports of parts for electronics,
to be assembled in Vietnam and then shipped to the US and elsewhere.
But the
strength of demand for Chinese products is global — exports last year to
Indonesia and Brazil grew by double digits, while shipments to France and
Germany climbed more than 6%, buoyed by exports of millions of electric
vehicles and other products.
However,
Chinese demand for the world’s products didn’t grow anywhere nearly as fast,
with imports only expanding 1.1% last year, well below the 5.9% rise in
exports.
A big
question now is whether China’s efforts to boost the domestic economy can boost that demand
for foreign goods, or will the world’s second-biggest economy continue to rely
on the rest of the world to make up for its weak economy and lackluster
consumer demand.
Another
unknown: Whether Trump — who enters office one week from today — will use
the latest figures from Beijing as more justification for one of his most
consequential campaign promises of the 2024 election: imposing universal
tariffs on China as a way to correct imbalances
in the global trading system and boost job growth at home.
Supply Chain Latest: China's Record Year for Exports - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Poor
UK voters, fooled by inept socialists yet again.
UK
CFOs set to cut hiring and slash investment following Budget
Monday
13 January 2025 6:00 am
Finance
chiefs at UK businesses are focused on cutting costs in the wake of the Budget,
with investment and hiring set to suffer as a result.
Over
half (52 per cent) of CFOs surveyed by Deloitte said cost reduction was a
strong priority for their business in the wake of the Chancellor’s
tax raid.
The
survey showed that hiring intentions in the final quarter of last year fell at
the fastest pace since early 2020, while a net 58 per cent of firms expect to
cut discretionary spending.
In
addition, less than one in five CFOs (18 per cent) said it was a good time to
take additional risk onto their balance sheet, the weakest risk appetite in
over a year.
“With
cost control to the fore in the wake of the Budget, CFOs have trimmed
expectations for corporate investment, discretionary spending and hiring in the
next 12 months,” Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte said.
The
survey is another indication that the measures announced in the government’s
first Budget have knocked business confidence and weighed on economic activity.
Rachel
Reeves hiked employers’ national insurance in October’s fiscal event while also
lifting the minimum wage by 6.7 per cent, imposing significant extra costs on
many UK firms.
These
measures have added headwinds to an economy that was already losing momentum in
the second half of 2024.
Official
figures show that the UK unexpectedly contracted in October for the second
straight month while the Bank of England’s latest projections indicate that the
economy was stagnant in the final quarter of 2024.
Despite
the impact of the Budget, Stewart predicted that the economy would grow faster
this year than last on the back of “easy fiscal policy” and lower interest
rates.
Deloitte’s
survey shows that UK CFOs expect to see three interest rate reductions in 2025,
one more than currently priced in by financial markets.
This
is partly due to lower wage growth, with the survey suggesting that wage growth
will ease to 3.2 per cent in the next year, down from four per cent in
the previous report.
UK CFOs set to cut
hiring and slash investment following Budget
Stakes
are high for UK economy ahead of crunch week of data
Monday
13 January 2025 6:00 am | Updated: Monday 13
January 2025 7:23 am
Investors
will be paying close attention to the UK
economy again
this week ahead of a series of crunch data releases.
The
latest inflation figures, covering December, will be published on Wednesday
before GDP figures for November will be released on Thursday.
City
economists expect inflation to remain unchanged at 2.6 per cent, while the
economy is projected to return to growth having suffered two months of
contraction.
But
the data releases come at a time when the economy is facing particular scrutiny
from international investors following last week’s sell-off in UK government
debt.
Although
bond yields rose all over the world, gilt yields increased faster than peers.
The yield on the 30-year gilt hit its highest
level since 1998 on
Wednesday before the 10-year gilt hit a post-financial crisis high on Thursday.
Commentators
suggested this reflected unease with the government’s economic agenda as well
as lingering fears about the persistence of inflation.
While
the turmoil in gilt markets had calmed by the end of the week, investors remain
tetchy.
Economists
at Goldman Sachs said: “The recent sell-off raises the stakes for the upcoming
inflation data releases”.
If
inflation comes in higher than expected, or if growth fails to materialise,
then the sell-off could resume with renewed intensity.
Analysts
at Investec said markets will be “especially sensitive” to any signs of
stubborn price pressures in the inflation report.
Attention
will likely centre on services inflation, which rate-setters have flagged as a
good gauge of homegrown inflationary dynamics. Services inflation fell to 5.0
per cent in November, and most analysts expect to see it continue falling in
the months ahead.
However,
many economists are worried that the measures announced
in the Budget –
such as the minimum wage hike and the national insurance increase – could
buttress inflationary pressures.
More
Stakes are high
for UK economy ahead of crunch week of data
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Below, it sounds like “safe and effective,” big pharma already has control of the UK’s Covid 19 inquiry outcome.
Compare and contrast the UK v USA.
COVID-19
Inquiry will not shy from criticising social media disinformation, Sky News
told
12
January 2025
The
chair of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry will not "hesitate to make
recommendations about the use of social media" and its role in spreading
"misinformation and disinformation" around vaccines, the secretary to
the inquiry has told Sky News.
The
independent public inquiry resumes on Tuesday with Module 4 looking at Vaccines
and Therapeutics.
Ben
Connah, secretary to the inquiry, said: 'In this
module, we will be looking specifically at misinformation and disinformation
and whether that led to vaccine hesitancy.
"If
the chair,[woman, sofa, pouffe? Ed.] Baroness Hallett, thinks there are
recommendations to be made about the use of social media, then she won't
hesitate to do that. She's got a very broad scope and she's determined to use
it."
The
inquiry has been set up to examine the UK's response to and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and
to learn lessons for the future.
This
includes the way the government used public health messaging to engage with
sometimes hard-to-reach communities. The lessons learned during the pandemic
can be applied to encourage vaccine uptake for childhood immunisation
programmes for diseases like polio and measles.
One
of the reasons that this inquiry is looking specifically at vaccines is to make
sure that the UK is in the best position possible going forward when it comes
to not just a COVID vaccine, but that of other vaccines.
"If
there are issues around things like vaccine hesitancy that the chair ,[woman,
sofa, pouffe? Ed.] of the inquiry, Baroness Hallett, can make recommendations
on that would lead to broader benefits for society, I'm sure she'll do
that'," Mr Connah explained.
Kirit
Mistry worked as a COVID champion in Leicester during the pandemic and has
contributed to the inquiry's Every Story Matters campaign which allows the
public to share their story. His job was to try to engage with local
communities to counter the disinformation being promoted on social media.
"People
may have lost somebody and they were putting it down to the vaccination that
was the cause of that, so it was trying to get people to understand that being
hesitant and working off misinformation is not the right way because we need to
protect ourselves," he told Sky News.
More
COVID-19 Inquiry will not shy from criticising social media disinformation, Sky News told
Doctors
Ask Supreme Court to Block California Board From Penalizing Certain COVID-19
Views
The
physicians say California cannot take away their free speech rights on public
health grounds.
By Matthew Vadum 1/12/2025 Updated:1/12/202
Three
doctors are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to prevent a California agency from
investigating them over their opposition to state-approved COVID-19 policies.
The
California Medical Board considers the expression of the doctors’ dissenting
views on the disease as potentially dangerous misinformation that should be
suppressed. The board argues it has legal authority to discipline the doctors
for speech it deems to be medical misconduct. The physicians counter that just
because they have medical licenses doesn’t mean they forfeit their free speech
rights under the First Amendment.
The
emergency application in Kory v. Bonta
was docketed by the high court on Jan. 8, one of the applicants’ attorneys,
Richard Jaffe of Sacramento, California, told The Epoch Times.
The
application for an injunction was submitted to Supreme Court Justice Elena
Kagan, who oversees urgent appeals from California.
It
is unclear when the Supreme Court will act on the application.
The
justices could grant an injunction against the state, deny the injunction, or
schedule the case for oral argument.
The
application was brought by medical doctors Pierre Kory and Brian Tyson,
osteopathic physician Le Trinh Hoag, Physicians for Informed Consent, and
Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit founded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
President-elect
Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, has nominated Kennedy to be
secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy, an
attorney, is also listed as co-counsel on the application.
California’s
executive and legislative branches are “threatening California physicians with
professional discipline for their viewpoint speech contrary to the mainstream
COVID narrative,” according to the application.
After
the Federation of State Medical Boards in July 2021 encouraged its member
medical boards in the United States to punish physicians for advancing
perceived “COVID misinformation” and “disinformation” among patients and the
public, California Medical Board President Kristina Lawson announced in
February 2022 that the board planned to sanction physicians for what it called
“COVID misinformation.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
China:
JinkoSolar’s perovskite tandem solar cell hits record 33.84% efficiency
Bojan Stojkovski
Sat, January 11, 2025 at 1:17 PM
GMT
Shanghai-headquartered solar
module manufacturer JinkoSolar has announced its latest breakthrough in the
development of N-type TOPCon-based perovskite tandem solar cell, which achieved
a record conversion efficiency of 33.84%.
Independently tested by the
Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology under the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, the cell surpassed JinkoSolar's previous record of 33.24%.
The newest innovation marks the company's 27th world record for PV product
efficiency and power output.
Passivation tech powers tandem cell efficiency
JinkoSolar developed a record-breaking perovskite
tandem solar cell that incorporates its N-type high-efficiency monocrystalline
TOPCon technology as the bottom layer, with enhanced efficiency achieved
through innovations in full-area passivated contact, perovskite interfacial
defect passivation, and bulk defect passivation technologies.
According to the firm, the
results surpass the conversion efficiency limit of single-junction crystalline
silicon cells, demonstrating the compatibility of TOPCon as a mainstream solar
cell technology with next-generation perovskite/silicon tandem cells. This
breakthrough paves the way for new advancements in the future of the
photovoltaic industry, JinkoSolar stated in a press release.
"Once again, we have
achieved remarkable progress in solar cell efficiency as a result of our
ongoing investments in R&D and steadfast commitment to excellence. This
milestone strengthens our confidence in our ability to achieve further technological
breakthroughs as we work toward building a greener and more sustainable energy
future,” Jin Hao, CTO at JinkoSolar, pointed out.
Perovskite materials have
long been hailed as a game-changer in solar technology due to their potential
for high efficiency and low manufacturing costs. Their unique properties allow
for flexibility in design and integration, making them an attractive option for
next-generation solar cells.
However, one of the major
challenges has been their tendency to degrade over time, which poses a
significant concern for their use in commercial applications. Solar products,
particularly those installed in outdoor environments, need to withstand harsh weather
conditions, temperature fluctuations, and UV exposure over many years, which
cam make them less suitable for long-term, large-scale energy generation.
Next-gen solar cells could reach 43% conversion
Back in September 2024,
Chinese manufacturer LONGi set a new world record for perovskite-tandem
solar cell efficiency, reaching 34.6%. This surpassed the previous record of
33.7%, held by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah University of Science and
Technology (KAUST) for a perovskite-silicon tandem device.
This bilayer interface
passivation strategy is said to enhance both electron transport and hole
blocking. LONGi's tandem team developed the two-terminal prototype devices,
which have achieved a certified efficiency of 34.6%.
While further technical
details were not provided, LONGi mentioned that the commercial-sized
two-terminal tandem cells for mass production (M6) and the world’s first square
meter four-terminal tandem modules have been certified with efficiencies of
30.1% and 25.8%, respectively.
The silicon-perovskite tandem
solar cell is regarded as the leading technology for next-generation
ultra-efficient solar cells, with a theoretical maximum efficiency of up to
43%, significantly exceeding the 33.7% Shockley-Queisser limit for single-junction
cells.
China: JinkoSolar’s perovskite tandem solar cell
hits record 33.84% efficiency
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
"To
turn $100 into $110 is work. To turn $100 million into $110 million is
inevitable.
Edgar
Bronfman, Chairman, Seagrams.
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