Baltic
Dry Index. 1048 +79 Brent Crude 79.76
Spot
Gold 2670 U S 2 Year Yield 4.40 +0.13
Q. How helpful were EVs in the LA fire disaster?
A. Not helpful, but a very real danger to anyone owning one and
trying to evacuate using one.
The
latest US jobs report came in “strong”. Outgoing
President Biden will now not be responsible for the coming economic bust to
follow from the 2025 revisions to the following downward jobs reports. What a
stroke of luck!
Look
away from that soaring oil price and rapidly normalising US Treasury yield
curve now. Nothing to see here!
Dow
tumbles nearly 700 points Friday as strong jobs report casts doubt over Fed’s
rate-cut path
Updated
Fri, Jan 10 2025 5:31 PM EST
Stocks
dropped on Friday after a hot jobs report dampened Wall Street’s expectations
for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
696.75 points, or 1.63%, to close at 41,938.45. The S&P 500 slid 1.54% to
5,827.04, while the Nasdaq
Composite fell 1.63% to 19,161.63. Friday’s losses pushed the major
benchmarks into the red for 2025.
U.S.
payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, while economists polled by Dow
Jones expected
to see an increase of 155,000. The unemployment rate, which was projected
to remain at 4.2%, fell to 4.1% during the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked
to its highest level since late 2023 after the report.
“Good
news for the economy but not for the markets, at least for now,” said Wells
Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist Scott Wren.
“However, this unexpected gain relative to the consensus projection does not
change our view that the labor market is likely to decelerate further in coming
quarters.”
Traders
give 97% odds that the Fed stands pat on rates at its meeting later in January,
and they now think the central bank will hold rates where they are in the March
meeting as well, based on fed funds futures trading.
Odds
of a March cut fell to around 25% following the jobs data, down from a 41%
probability a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a
quarter point in December.
Stocks
took another leg lower on Friday after the University of Michigan’s consumer
sentiment index signaled concern on the inflation front. The overall index came
in at 73.2 for January, missing a Dow Jones estimate of 74. Part of that was
driven by one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.3% from 2.8%. Five-year
expectations also scaled to their highest level since June 2008.
Growth
stocks that could be hurt the most if a spike in rates causes investors to get
more conservative led the session’s losses. Chipmaker Nvidia shed 3%, while AMD and Broadcom lost 4.8% and 2.2%,
respectively. Palantir was
off by more than 1%.
Small-cap
stocks, also sensitive to borrowing rates, dropped with the Russell 2000 index losing
more than 2%.
“Rates
are moving a little bit too much, too fast and equity markets are selling off,”
LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said, adding that the
recent move in yields foreshadows a potential pullback or correction for the
S&P 500.
“But
the important thing that gets lost on days like today is the message of why
rates are moving higher — it’s because the economy is doing better than
expected,” he said. “Ultimately, that means the potential for better earnings,
less risk of a recession, and that’s really going to dictate longer term
returns versus a sell-off in today’s market.”
All
three of the major averages posted back-to-back weekly losses, with the S&P 500 off 1.9% and
the Nasdaq Composite down
2.3%. The 30-stock Dow slid
nearly 1.9% on the week.
Stock
market news for Jan. 10, 2025
In
other news, why is everyone devaluing their currency v the US dollar ahead of
Trump 2.0. Cui bono?
China’s
central bank halts bond buying, possibly with eye on yuan
Published
Thu, Jan 9 2025 8:27 PM EST Updated Fri, Jan 10 2025 12:05 AM EST
China’s central bank said
on Friday it has suspended treasury bond purchases, triggering a jump in yields
and spurring speculation that the move was aimed at defending a falling
currency.
The
People’s Bank of China cited a shortage of bonds in the
market as the reason it was halting the purchases, which were part of its
operations to ease monetary settings.
But
the move coincides with a brutal selloff in other major bond markets
around the world and suggests China’s central bank is
trying to ensure yields at home also rise in tandem, analysts say.
Yields,
which move inversely to bond prices, jumped following
the central bank’s announcement.
China’s
30-year treasury yield climbed five basis points in early trade while the
10-year yield rose four basis points. Both hit record lows recently. The
yuan too rose slightly.
“One
of the key reasons for the depreciation of the yuan is the widened yield gap
between China and the U.S., so the central bank is
sending a signal to the market that the yield rate is unlikely to fall
further,” Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.
The
surprise announcement came just months after the PBOC started bond buying as
part of measures to improve liquidity management.
The central bank said in a statement it would resume bond buying
via open market operations “at a proper time depending on supply and demand in
the government bond market”.
The
announcement also comes after warnings from the PBOC about bubble risks in a
bond market where long-dated yields have hit successive record lows as
investors seek safe assets in a faltering economy and prime for more monetary
easing.
Bond
prices in China have been on a decade-long rally - one that kicked
into a higher gear roughly two years ago as property sector woes and weakness
in the stock market triggered a flood of funds flowing
into bank deposits and the debt market.
China's central
bank halts bond buying, possibly with eye on yuan
Battery
Metals Meltdown
9 January 2025
Last
year was a brutal one for
the battery metals sector. After slumping in 2023, prices of lithium, cobalt
and nickel ground steadily lower in 2024.
Cobalt
miner Jervois Global is
the latest casualty, announcing that
one of its lenders will take the company private as part of a pre-packaged
bankruptcy. The company had already suspended work on its
Idaho cobalt mine just weeks before it was due to open in 2023. It needs a
cobalt price of at least $20 per pound to reopen the site, almost double the
current spot price of $11.
Cobalt
prices have
been crushed by a tsunami of new
supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo. China’s CMOC Group, which is the
country’s largest producer, more than doubled output last year.
The
same dynamic has played out in both nickel and lithium markets.
Indonesia’s
nickel production boom has swamped the global
nickel market and contributed to the glut of cobalt, a by-product of the
country’s nickel processing sector. Western lithium producers have closed
assets and deferred new capacity even as Chinese and African miners ramp up output.
The
battery metal supply surge has coincided with weaker-than-expected
demand from the all-important electric vehicle (EV) sector.
The
global EV market is still expanding with sales growing by an impressive 25%
year on year in the first 11 months of 2024, according to consultancy Rho
Motion.
However,
just about all the growth was in China with Western buyers still reluctant
to make the shift from internal combustion engine to electric drive. Moreover,
Chinese buyers are increasingly opting for hybrids or plug-in
hybrids over pure battery vehicles. These have batteries about a third of the
size of pure battery models, meaning a similar-sized reduction in cathode
inputs.
Batteries
themselves are also evolving with the resurgence of
lithium-iron-phosphate chemistry heralding more bad news for nickel and cobalt
markets.
The
consensus is
that prices are now so low there is little further downside. But a recovery is
going to depend more than anything else on supply discipline. Or the lack of
it.
Reuters,
Power Up.
La
Niña is finally here, later and more muted than expected
January
09, 2025
A
few months later and likely
to be weaker than expected, the tropical Pacific Ocean has officially tipped
into La Niña conditions, which can influence
weather patterns globally, NOAA declared today.
Why
it matters: La
Niña winters are often drier than average across the southern tier of the U.S.,
with more rain and snow favored in the Pacific Northwest, among other knock-on
effects.
The
big picture: La
Niña is a periodic ocean and atmosphere cycle in the equatorial tropical
Pacific that features cooler-than-average waters along the equator.
- This, in turn, alters
weather patterns over that region, with the effects rippling outward for
thousands of miles.
- The La Niña this
year, which follows a strong El Niño in
2023 into
early 2024, is now expected to be brief and relatively weak.
- La Niña, the cooler
sibling of El Niño, is forecast to persist through the February to April
period and transition back into neither El Niño or La Niña conditions
during the March to May timeframe, NOAA stated.
Yes,
but: Throughout
the spring, summer and into early fall, NOAA forecasts called for a potentially
moderate La Niña to develop
before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season.
- Instead, the
atmosphere over the tropical Pacific resembled a La Niña weather pattern,
NOAA meteorologist Michelle L'Heureux told Axios, but the ocean didn't
meet the definition.
The
intrigue: L'Heureux,
who leads the team that forecasts such climate events, said it's possible that
widespread warm water anomalies across the tropical oceans hindered La Niña's
formation.
- If this is the case,
La Niña events may
become more muted and harder to predict as the oceans and air
temperatures continue to warm.
- "It is not
entirely clear why the La Niña was so late to form and I'm sure that will
be a subject of future research," L'Heureux told Axios via email.
Wildfires,
Fried Smelt And The Hoary Hoax Of A Burning Planet
|
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in
December, much more than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
Published Fri, Jan 10 2025 8:31 AM EST Updated
Fri, Jan 10 2025 11:33 AM EST
Job growth was much stronger than expected
in December, likely providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut
interest rates this year.
Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the
month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow
Jones consensus, the Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%,
one-tenth of a point below expectations. An alternative measure that includes
discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons
moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since
June 2024.
Stocks
plunged plunged after the report while Treasury yields soared as
traders price in a lower probability of Fed rate cuts this year.
“This is a hot report,” said Dan North,
senior economist for North America at Allianz Trade. “You have to think that
[Fed Chair] Jerome Powell is breathing a sigh of relief in the sense that his
job just got a little bit easier. Inflation hasn’t been moving anywhere for
months, so there’s no incentive to cut rates. Now you get this [jobs report] so
you don’t need to cut rates to stimulate the economy.”
The report brings to a close a year in
which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising
questions over whether a recession loomed. However, the final two months showed
a labor market still operating at strength as the Fed contemplates its next
moves on monetary policy.
One area that Fed officials have stressed
to not be a source of inflation is the labor market, and wages grew slightly
less than expected.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on
the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was
slightly below the outlook and indicative that wage inflation at least is
becoming less of a factor. The average workweek again held steady at 34.3
hours.
“You’re never going to hear me complain
that we got 250,000 jobs,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on CNBC’s
“Squawk on the Street.” “I think it’s a strong jobs report. It makes me further
comfortable that the job market is stabilizing at something like the full
employment rate.”
Job growth came from the familiar sources
of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and government
(33,000).
Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000
after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The
sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down sharply from
the 3 million gain in 2023.
Revisions for prior months were less
substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward
change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the
prior estimate.
At their December meeting, Fed officials
deemed the labor market mostly healthy though slowing. The Fed voted at the
meeting to lower its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point while
indicating a slower pace of reductions ahead.
Markets expect the Fed to hold pat at the
meeting later this month, with futures pricing after the jobs report swinging
to the expectation of just one cut this year. The market-implied probability of
a single cut increased to 68.5% after the jobs report, according to the CME
Group’s FedWatch gauge.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Two
charged over fake Covid vaccination passports
9 January 2025
Detectives investigating the creation and online
sale of fraudulent Covid-19 vaccination records during the pandemic have
charged two men.
Waqas Hanif, 26, and
Touqir Nasir, 29, from Luton, Bedfordshire, are facing offences under the
Computer Misuse Act and Fraud Act, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said.
A joint NCA and NHS
England investigation was carried out relating to the creation of almost 2,000
fraudulent records at a health centre in Luton between June and October 2021,
and the seizure of £145,000 in cash from a safety deposit box in the town, the
NCA said.
The documentation allowed
unvaccinated people to travel, when others were subject to restrictions, the
NCA said.
Both men are due before
Luton Magistrates' Court on Thursday.
During the pandemic,
unvaccinated individuals were said to have paid for legitimate vaccine passport
records, which were obtained from online marketplaces illegally, the agency
added.
Mr Hanif, of Sherwood
Road, Luton, was arrested by NCA officers in January 2022.
Mr Nasir, of Runley Road,
Luton, attended a voluntary interview in March 2022, the NCA said.
Both are accused of
committing conspiracy to unauthorised computer access with intent to commit
other offences.
They are also alleged to
have entered into, and be concerned in, the acquisition, retention and use or
control of criminal property, and conspiring to commit fraud by false
representation.
Mr Hanif has also been
charged with acquiring, use and possession of criminal property.
Luton men charged over fake Covid passports -
BBC News
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
The largest hydroelectric dam in the world has been approved
By Joe Salas January 04, 2025
China has approved what is set to become the biggest hydropower
dam complex in the world, capable of producing nearly three times as much power
as the current record-holder, the Three Gorges Dam.
The project is slated to be built on the Yarlung Zangbo River in
Tibet near the border of India at a cost of US$137 billion. It's part of
China's 14th "Five-Year Plan," which includes environmental goals to
accelerate renewable energy and fight pollution. The location of the proposed
dam looks to take advantage of the river's steep geography to harness more
hydropower than ever before: 300 billion kilowatt-hours per year.
That translates to 300 TWh, enough to serve as many as 300 million
people in China.
The Three Gorges Dam, spanning the Yangtze River in China,
currently holds the world title for installed capacity and annual
hydroelectricity generation, producing between 95 and 112 TWh every year. If
completed, the proposed Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Project will eclipse
the Three Gorges Dam
production by nearly three times.
For a sense of scale, the largest hydroelectric power
plant in the US is the Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Washington.
It's one of the largest concrete structures in the world and produces about 20
TWh per year. The Hoover Dam that sits on the Nevada/Arizona border produces a
mere 4.2 TWh, comparatively.
The Yarlung Zangbo River, which later turns into the Brahmaputra
when it enters India, is one of the highest rivers in the world, originating
from the Angsi Glacier in the Tibet Autonomous Region. The river is only
partially responsible for carving out the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon. The
region sits on tectonic plates and suffers regular earthquakes. It's also one
of the deepest canyons in the world, reaching 19,714 ft (6,009 m) at its
deepest. It's also 313.5 miles (504.6 km) long, making it longer than the Grand Canyon in
the US.
All of this gives the Yarlung Zangbo River a drop of roughly
25,152 ft (7,667 m) from its highest point down to India, making it one of the
most "hydropower-rich" rivers in the world. In particular, a 31-mile
(50-km) stretch near the Namcha Barwa mountain has a 6,562-ft (2,000-m) drop,
making it an ideal candidate location for a hydroelectric power station.
Installation of a dam in that location would require drilling
multiple 12.5-mile (20-km) tunnels to divert the river, which flows around
70,600 cubic feet per second (2,000 cubic meters), enough to fill about three
Olympic-sized swimming pools per second.
Meanwhile, authorities in neighboring India – which is downstream
from the project – have
expressed concern about China controlling the flow of the river and what
impact it could have across the border.
Chinese officials claim to have completed extensive geological
studies on the seismically active area and believe construction could be
completed safely. No timeline has been set for construction yet.
Source: South
China Morning Post
The largest
hydroelectric dam in the world has been approved
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long
forgotten composer. Approx. 9 minutes.
Alessandro
Melani: Sonata à 5 in C major for 2 Trumpets, 2 Violins & B.c
Alessandro Melani:
Sonata à 5 in C major for 2 Trumpets, 2 Violins & B.c - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess diversion. Approx. 7
minutes.
NN
VS MORPHY || FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship 2024
NN VS MORPHY ||
FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship 2024
This
weekend’s final diversion. That EV school bus fire. Approx. 5 minutes.
BATTERY
or HEATER? Quebec Electric School Bus Fire
BATTERY or HEATER?
Quebec Electric School Bus Fire
Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers
change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature
never changes.
Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
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