Baltic
Dry Index. 893 -35
Brent Crude 78.74
Spot Gold 2754 US 2 Year Yield 4.29 unch.
US Federal Debt. 36.385 trillion!
The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
Benjamin Graham.
In the stock casinos, Beijing says buy more!
Our stock casino led world now depends on communist stock pickers in Beijing, apparently, what could possibly go wrong with this?
Look away from the South Korean, German, UK and other recession prone economies now.
China’s CSI 300 leads gains in Asia-Pacific as
Beijing urges institutional investors to buy stocks
Updated Thu, Jan 23 2025 12:22 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday
as investors assessed a slew of economic data in the region, with China stocks
leading gains.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.24%,
while the CSI 300 climbed 1.01%. China’s financial regulators on Thursday urged large
state-owned mutual funds and insurers to purchase more shares, as Beijing seeks
to bolster its faltering stock market.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.72%
lower.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.84%, while
the Topix added 0.6%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.78% and the
Kosdaq traded 0.76% lower. South Korea’s economy expanded 1.2% year on year in
the fourth quarter, marking its slowest expansion since the second quarter of
2023.
Singapore is expected to report its
inflation numbers for December. The Bank of Japan is also holding its next
policy meeting today and tomorrow, where the BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda had
signaled intentions to hike rates.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
averages advanced, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high as
technology shares such as Oracle and Nvidia rallied on artificial
intelligence optimism and President Donald Trump’s new term in office.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.61%
after hitting an intraday record of 6,100.81, exceeding the last milestone
touched in December before the market pullback. The broad index closed at
6,086.37, slightly below its all-time closing high.
The Nasdaq Composite popped
1.28% to 20,009.34, underscoring the outperformance of tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
130.92 points, or 0.3%, to 44,156.73, boosted by Procter & Gamble’s gain of
nearly 2% on the back of strong
earnings.
Asia
markets live: South Korea GDP, Japan trade, Singapore CPI
Stocks close higher, S&P 500 touches fresh
record, bolstered by Trump optimism: Live updates
Updated Wed, Jan 22 2025 4:18 PM EST
Stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the
S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high, as technology shares such as Oracle and Nvidia rallied on artificial
intelligence optimism and President Donald Trump’s new term in office.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.61%
after hitting an intraday record of 6,100.81, exceeding the last milestone
touched in December before the market pullback. The broad index closed at
6,086.37, slightly below its all-time closing high.
The Nasdaq Composite popped
1.28% to 20,009.34, underscoring the outperformance of tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
130.92 points, or 0.3%, to 44,156.73, boosted by Procter & Gamble’s gain of
nearly 2% on the back of strong
earnings.
Stocks surged on strong earnings reports,
with Netflix jumping
more than 9% after the company surpassed
300 million paid memberships. Its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue also
topped analyst expectations. The streamer’s results got a boost from hit series
“Squid Game” and live sporting events such as the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson
boxing match.
Oracle shares jumped more than 6% and
Nvidia climbed more than 4% as investors continued to pile into the AI trade
following an announcement from the new White House. President Trump announced
a joint
venture dubbed “Stargate” on Tuesday, with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank
to invest ″$500
billion, at least” in AI infrastructure within the United States.
“The combination of a resilient economy,
easing inflation, stabilization in interest rates, an earnings season off to a
strong start, and less day-one focus on tariffs by President Trump has provided
a solid backdrop for the market,” said Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief
investment officer. “Tech is reasserting its leadership on the back of the
Stargate project, which highlights the secular tailwinds and transformative
potential of AI.”
“Today is yet another reminder that the
dominant theme of this bull market is artificial intelligence and technology,”
Lerner added.
More
Stock
market news for Jan. 22, 2025
European markets head for lower open, reversing
positive sentiment seen all week
Published Thu, Jan 23 2025 12:34 AM EST
LONDON — European stocks are expected to
open lower Thursday, reversing positive momentum seen throughout the week.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is expected to
open 25 points lower at 8,516, Germany’s DAX down 8 points at
21,251, France’s CAC 40 down
8 points at 7,828 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB 59 points lower at 35,973, according to data from IG.
The expected turn lower comes after
Germany’s DAX hit an all-time high for the second time this week on Wednesday.
Sportswear giant Adidas helped
boost the German index, with shares ending 6% higher after the company said
sales grew by 19% in its fourth-quarter results.
On Thursday, investors will likely be
tuning in to President Donald Trump’s keynote address at the World Economic
Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday. The newly inaugurated president is
due to address the WEF via video link at 5 p.m. Davos time.
Participants and observers around the
world will be listening to his speech carefully for any more details on his
widely publicized pledge to introduce universal tariffs on goods imported to
the United States, and for his position on major geopolitical and economic
issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the future of Israeli-Palestine
relations and economic rivalry with China.
Other high-profile figures due to speak on
Thursday include Javier Milei, the president of Argentina, who’s due to speak
at 10:15 a.m. local time.
CNBC guest highlights include the CEOs of
Vestas, Schneider Electric, Siemens, Rio Tinto, Carlsberg and SAP. We’ll also
be speaking to Mathias Cormann, the secretary-general of the OECD, senior
European Commission official Stéphane Séjourné, German Finance Minister Jörg
Kukies and Khalid Al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s investment minister, among many
others.
CNBC-moderated panels will include a
debate on the technology revolution, featuring Antonio Neri, the CEO of HP, as
well as the CEOs of Octopus Energy and iGenius.
Europe markets: stocks, news, data and earnings
In other news., President Mr. Magoo?
Greenland's prime minister slams Donald Trump and
says 'we don't want to be Americans'
21 January 2025
Greenland’s prime minister has insisted
his nation “does not want to be American” as he took a shot at Donald
Trump.
The newly inaugurated president has
threatened several times he wants to make the Danish
territory part
of the US for “international security”. His comments have been met with scorn
from the international community, as he has not ruled out using military power
to persuade Denmark to cede the territory.
Now, a day after Trump took to the oath,
Greenland’s prime minister has insisted his country has no interest in becoming
the 51st state. He told Politico : “We are
Greenlanders. We don’t want to be Americans. We don’t want to be Danish either.
Greenland’s future will be decided by Greenland.”
“It is very understandable people are
worried. But the most important thing now is people remain calm, we must be
able to meet and talk about this calmly.”
“You can’t get around the fact that if
they [the U.S.] want to talk about Greenland, they have to talk to Greenland.”
Germany and France previously condemned
the president's refusal to rule out military action to seize the autonomous
Danish territory, escalating fears of a global crisis.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “the
principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country... no matter
whether it’s a very small one or a very powerful one.”
Trump’s obsession with making Denmark part
of the US is the fifth time the United States has set its eyes on the island.
It established an airbase in Greenland during the Cold War.
Trump previously said: “Greenland is
necessary not for us, it’s necessary for international security. You have
Russian boats all over the place, you have China ’s boats all
over the place — warships — and they [Denmark] can’t maintain it.”
More
Greenland's prime
minister slams Donald Trump and says 'we don't want to be Americans'
Donald Trump seems to confuse Spain with South
Africa: ‘You’ll figure it out’
22 January 2025
US President Donald Trump has left
some in Spain confused
after seeming to get the S in the acronym ‘Brics’
confused.
On his
first day, the
president said Spain is a member of the Brics bloc of developing economies,
causing some head-scratching and jitters over possible tariffs in Madrid.
Spain is not in Brics. It is an acronym
for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Mr Trump erroneously said Spain was in
Brics when a journalist asked him about Nato countries like Spain which do not
meet the Nato minimum of spending 2% of economic output on defence. Spain
ranked last in the 32-nation military alliance, estimated to spend 1.28% on
defence last year.
Mr Trump started his answer by saying
“Spain is very low,” referring to its defence expenditures, but quickly veered
into speaking about Brics.
“They’re a Brics nation, Spain. Do you
know what a Brics nation is? You’ll figure it out,” he told the reporter from
the presidential desk in the Oval Office.
It is a member of Nato, along with the US,
and of the European Union.
Mr Trump repeated his threat to put costly
tariffs on Brics, saying “we are going to put at least a 100% tariff on the
business they do with the United States,” part of his economic plans that would
overturn decades of free trade consensus.
Spanish education minister Pilar Alegria,
who acts as a spokeswoman for the government, said she was not sure why Mr
Trump made the comment.
“I don’t know if the affirmation made by
president Trump was the result of a mix-up or not, but I can confirm that Spain
is not in Brics,” Ms Alegria told reporters on Tuesday.
Spain is one of eight countries that
failed to meet Nato’s 2% spending target last year. Mr Trump has said he wants
Nato members to reach 5% spending on defence.
Spain is not the only foreign country left
confused by Trump’s first day. During a speech the President vexed New
Zealanders after he claimed that America split the atom – a feat achieved by
Sir Ernest Rutherford from Nelson in New Zealand.
Mr Trump was highlighting America’s
achievements during his swearing-in
ceremony for his second term in the White House when he gave
credit to the US for the historic achievement by the revered physicist.
Mr Trump was called out on social media by
Nick Smith, the mayor of the city of Nelson near where the physicist grew up,
who said he was surprised by the US president making such a claim.
“I was a bit surprised by new
president Donald
Trump in his inauguration speech about US greatness claiming today
Americans split the atom when that honour belongs to Nelson’s most famous and
favourite son Sir Ernest Rutherford,” Mr Smith said.
Donald Trump seems to confuse Spain with South Africa: ‘You’ll figure it out’
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
South
Korea GDP misses estimates as weak consumption, construction sector drive
growth to 6-quarter low
Published
Wed, Jan 22 2025 6:18 PM EST
South
Korea’s fourth-quarter GDP missed estimates Thursday, with weakness in
consumption and the construction sector driving growth to a six-quarter low of
1.2%, year on year.
Advance figures missed the 1.4% expansion expected by
economists polled by Reuters, and the growth was also softer compared with the
1.5% rise seen in the third quarter of 2024.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth also missed expectations, with the
economy growing just 0.1% compared to the 0.2% forecast in the Reuters poll.
However,
full-year GDP growth for 2024 came in at 2% compared with last year’s 1.4%
gain.
The
South Korean won weakened 0.13% to 1,436.4, while the country’s benchmark stock
index Kospi fell
0.47%.
The Bank of Korea said that in 2024, private
consumption growth fell and investment in the construction sector declined, but
government consumption, facility investment, and exports growth rose.
The
BOK also said that growth in the services as well as construction industry
decreased, but manufacturing industry grew at a faster rate compared to last
year.
“We
suspect that the weakness in activity could persist in the near term due to the
ongoing political crisis and the bleak outlook for the construction sector,”
Shivaan Tandon, markets economist at economic data provider Capital Economics
said a note after the GDP release.
Domestic
demand remains the main source of the weakness in the economy, Tandon said,
pointing out that sequential growth in consumer spending slowed to just 0.2%
from 0.5% in the third quarter.
More
Barclays
ups mortgage rates - as one broker calls for Government to intervene to avoid
'messy recession'
·
Rising swap rates have driven mortgage rates higher across
the market
Updated: 13:34,
21 January 2025
Another
major bank is increasing interest
rates on
its fixed mortgage deals.
From
tomorrow, Barclays is increasing rates by 0.2 percentage points across the bulk
of its fixed deals aimed at home buyers and those remortgaging.
At
the same time, it is reducing some of its buy-to-let rates by
0.45 percentage points for existing borrowers.
This
move by Barclays follows hot on the heels of Santander,
HSBC, TSB and Leeds Building Society, which all announced they were increasing
costs on their home loan deals last week.
The
rise in mortgage
rates is
largely due to Sonia swap rates, which have been rising in recent weeks.
Sonia
swap rates, the rates at which banks trade streams of interest payments with
each other to mitigate risk, reflect lenders' expectations of future interest
rates and
play a critical role in how fixed-rate mortgages are priced.
Speaking
to the news agency, Newspage, Justin Moy, managing director at broker EHF
Mortgages said the Government should intervene to bring costs down for
borrowers.
'Barclays is
one of the last lenders to increase rates in light of recent swap
rate trends, which aligns them with many of their high-street peers,' he
said.
'The
Government needs to intervene to bring the cost of borrowing down before we
head into a messy recession in the months to come.'
What
mortgage rates is Barclays changing?
Barclays'
cheapest two-year fix for people buying with at least a 40 per cent deposit
will go from 4.23 per cent to 4.43 per cent. The deal comes with a £899 product
fee.
On
a £200,000 mortgage being repaid over 25 years, that's the difference between
paying £1,081 a month and £1,104 a month.
The
lowest two-year fixed remortgage rate with
Barclays is rising to 4.47 per cent, with a £999 fee.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Antidepressant fluoxetine found ineffective for early COVID-19 treatment
22 January 2025
Evidence shows weak antiviral activity and no
improvement in symptom outcomes.
In a recent study published in eClinicalMedicine, researchers characterized the antiviral
activity of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), fluoxetine, in
early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Background
SSRIs are widely used antidepressants that are
readily available and affordable worldwide. Observational studies reported that
patients taking fluoxetine had lower mortality when hospitalized for COVID-19.
Later studies supporting this observation suggested
that SSRIs may also confer prophylactic benefits. SSRIs may exert antiviral
action through the functional inhibition of acid sphingomyelinase (FIASMA).
While most studies have focused on another SSRI
(fluvoxamine), fluoxetine has the most favorable pharmacokinetic properties,
the highest FIASMA activity in vitro, and the best tolerability
profile.
Conducting randomized trials to assess the
prevention of hospitalization or death in symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients is
no longer feasible, as was possible during the pandemic.
About the study
In the present study, researchers assessed the
antiviral efficacy
of fluoxetine in early COVID-19. If they had
early symptomatic COVID-19, individuals aged 18–50 were enrolled in an ongoing,
phase 2, randomized, controlled adaptive platform trial (PLATCOV).
Pregnant individuals, subjects taking antivirals or
other medicines, and those with morbidity, chronic illness, hematological
abnormalities, or contraindications to study drugs were excluded.
The fluoxetine arm was added to the platform in April 2022 in Thailand,
June 2022 in Brazil, December 2022 in Laos, and February 2023 in Pakistan and
was removed in May 2023. Patients were randomized to one of the 11 treatment
arms.
----Findings
In total, 675 patients were randomized to
intervention arms. Of these, 120 were randomized to the fluoxetine arm, 151 to
the no-study drug arm, and the remaining patients were randomized to other
interventions.
Most patients (90%) were recruited in Thailand. The
median interval since the onset of symptoms was two days. The mean SARS-CoV-2
eluate density was 350,000 genomes/ml. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, BA.2, and
BA.2.75 were the most common infecting variants.
Fluoxetine recipients reported higher somnolence
than the no-study drug group. Two patients did not complete the fluoxetine
course. No serious adverse events, hospitalizations, or deaths occurred.
Moreover, the time to symptom or fever resolution was not significantly
different between the fluoxetine and no-study drug arms.
Fluoxetine recipients had a 15% faster viral
clearance, on average, than the no-study drug arm. The median viral clearance
half-life was 14 hours in the fluoxetine arm and 14.9 hours in the no-study
drug group.
A post hoc sensitivity analysis estimating
fluoxetine’s treatment effect using data from the first five days
post-randomization showed a substantially larger treatment effect (at 26%).
In addition, a meta-analysis of all drugs and
antibodies was performed using individual patient data. This revealed that
fluoxetine increased clearance by 16% relative to the no-study drug arm. It
also had a greater clearance rate relative to favipiravir and ivermectin.
However, fluoxetine’s treatment effect was lower
than that of remdesivir, ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, casirivimab/imdevimab,
and molnupiravir.
More
Research: Fluoxetine not
effective for COVID-19 patients
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Taiwanese
researchers unveil 31.5%-efficient perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell
The
cell utilizes a heterojunction device as the bottom cell and a perovskite top
cell integrating a hole transport layer made of nickel(II) oxide and
methyl-substituted carbazole.
January
22, 2025
Taiwan's
Academia Sinica announced that a group of its researchers has developed a
two-terminal (2T) perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell with a power conversion
efficiency of 31.5%.
“In the future, the research team will further optimize
the manufacturing process, enlarge the cell area, improve the stability of the
stacked components, and develop a manufacturing method that is more suitable
for mass production,” the research institute said in a statement. “We achieved
a high efficiency by reducing interface losses.”
The
research group utilized an unspecified heterojunction (HJT) crystalline solar
cell technology for the bottom device.
Furthermore,
it used a top perovskite solar cell built with a substrate made of indium tin
oxide (ITO), a hole transport layer (HTL) made of nickel(II) oxide (NiOx) and
phosphonic acid called methyl-substituted
carbazole (Me-4PACz), a perovskite absorber, a
buckminsterfullerene (C60) electron transport layer (ETL), a tin oxide (SnOx)
buffer layer, a transparent back contact made of indium zinc oxide
(IZO), a silver (Ag) metal contact, and an anti-reflective coating
based on magnesium fluoride (MgF2).
“We will continue to work closely with domestic academic
research institutions and manufacturers to jointly develop
this cell technology,” the research team, without revealing more technical
details on the novel cell concept.
Chinese
manufacturer Longi holds the world record for perovskite-tandem solar cell
efficiency, achieving 34.6%
efficiency in September. In 2023, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah
University of Science and Technology (KAUST) announced a perovskite-silicon
tandem device with an efficiency
of 33.7%.
Researchers
from Germany’s Fraunhofer
Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE)
recently said that the practical
power conversion efficiency potential of perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells
could reach up to 39.5%. Researchers said exceeding this efficiency
threshold requires a change in cell architecture, replacing
buckminsterfullerene (C60) with a more transparent electron transport layer,
and finding more transparent alternatives to indium tin oxide (ITO) layers.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
To be
an investor you must be a believer in a better tomorrow.
Benjamin
Graham.
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