Wednesday, 15 January 2025

US CPI Day. Inflation, Up, Down Or Flat?

Baltic Dry Index. 1080 -13          Brent Crude 80.24

Spot Gold 2682                 US 2 Year Yield 4.37 -0.03  

"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.”

 Abraham Lincoln, 16th U. S. President.

After a better than forecast Producer Price Index yesterday, today’s Consumer Price Index number is all important for the global stock casinos bubbles.

Shame about the soaring US deficit though, headed rapidly towards a fiat dollar disaster.

But with every other nation forced on to a fiat currency money tragedy, thanks to the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, August 15, 1971, that fiat dollar disaster beggars all.

Look away from that gold price now.

Asia markets mixed as investors assess U.S. inflation data, Japan business sentiment

Updated Wed, Jan 15 2025 12:10 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday, following a softer-than-expected inflation data from the U.S. that sent two key Wall Street benchmarks higher overnight.

The producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation, climbed just 0.2% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated a 0.4% rise. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in flat.

Investors in Asia also assessed the Reuters Tankan survey from Japan for January.

Business sentiment among large manufacturers rebounded, with the Tankan reading coming in at plus 2, after dipping into negative territory for the first time in 10 months in December with a reading of minus 1 in December.

Optimism among non-manufacturers edged up to plus 31, from plus 30 in December.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.23% while mainland China’s CSI300 — which captures the 300 most traded stocks on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges — fell 0.41%.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 was marginally up, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.34%.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.30% while the small-cap Kosdaq index lost 0.56% after South Korean investigators arrested impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has fell 0.16%.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.52% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.11% after the PPI report to 5,842.91. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.23%.

Asia markets live: U.S. PPI, Japan Reuters tankan

CNBC Daily Open: Tech rout in markets continues

Published Tue, Jan 14 2025 7:54 PM EST

Nasdaq still trails other major indexes
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Tuesday, but the Nasdaq Composite retreated, making it the second day it’s underperformed. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index ticked down 0.08%, giving up earlier gainsBP fell 2.5% after the oil giant said its fourth-quarter profit will take a hit of up $300 million because of weaker refinery margins.

Meta cuts jobs while Microsoft freezes hiring
Meta will be cutting about 5% of its lowest-performing employees, CNBC confirmed Tuesday. CEO Mark Zuckerberg informed employees about the decision in a memo posted on the company’s internal forum on Tuesday. Separately, Microsoft plans to pause hiring in part of its consulting business in the U.S., according to an internal memo.

SEC sues Musk over Twitter shares
The SEC filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk on Tuesday, alleging the billionaire committed securities fraud in 2022 by failing to disclose his ownership in Twitter and buying shares at “artificially low prices.” Prior to Musk’s acquisition of Twitter in 2022, he’d built up a position in the company of greater than 5%, which would’ve required disclosing his holding to the public within 10 calendar days of reaching that threshold.

Slower increase in producer prices
U.S. producer prices in December rose 0.2% for the month, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday. That’s lower than November’s 0.4% increase as well as the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.4%. On an annual basis, the headline producer price index rose 3.3% for 2024, up from the 1.1% increase in 2023.

More

CNBC Daily Open: Tech rout in markets continues

Europe’s stocks set for positive open ahead of closely watched U.S. inflation data

Updated Wed, Jan 15 2025 12:35 AM EST

European markets are heading for a positive open Wednesday as traders await the latest U.S. inflation data that will inform the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rate cuts.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 25 points higher at 8,221, Germany’s DAX up 20 points at 20,279, France’s CAC up 15 points at 7,439 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 51 points at 35,218, according to data from IG.

Trading updates are set to come from Experian and Hays on Wednesday, while data releases in focus are the latest U.K. inflation figures and German full-year gross domestic product.

Global market focus on Wednesday is on the U.S. consumer inflation index, which will be out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones see headline CPI rising 0.3% on a monthly basis and gaining 2.9% over the prior 12 months.

The data will come hot on the heels of December’s wholesale inflation report, which came in lighter than expected. The producer price index added just 0.2%, less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a 0.4% increase.

Both reports will inform the Fed’s interest rate policy when it meets later this month. Fed funds futures trading suggests a near-certainty that the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day meeting later this month. Markets pricing also suggests a 97% chance of rates staying at their current target range of 4.25%-4.5% in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Global bond yields continue to rise as traders expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year, with both signs of economic strength and potential weakness ahead. Jobs data last week showed nonfarm payrolls grew much faster than expected in December, but President-elect Donald Trump has said he will enact tariff policies when he takes office, which are predicted to be inflationary.

Investors stateside will also be keeping an eye on big bank earnings Wednesday: JPMorgan ChaseCitigroupGoldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are set to post fourth-quarter results. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are slated to report on Thursday.

European markets live updates: U.S. inflation data and stocks in focus

Budget deficit rose in December and is now 40% higher than it was a year ago

Published Tue, Jan 14 2025 2:05 PM EST  Updated Tue, Jan 14 2025 3:35 PM EST

The federal budget sank further into red ink during December, leaving the first fiscal quarter deficit nearly 40% higher than it was the prior year.

For the final calendar month of 2024, the shortfall totaled $86.7 billion, which actually represented a 33% decline for the same period a year prior, according to a Treasury Department report Tuesday. However, that brought the three-month fiscal year total to $710.9 billion, some $200 billion more than the comparable period in the prior year, or 39.4%.

Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling, pushing the national debt past the $36 trillion mark.

Though short-term Treasury yields have held fairly steady over the past month, rates at the far end of the duration curve have surged. The benchmark 10-year note most recently yielded close to 4.8%, or about 0.4 percentage point above where it was a month ago.

At the same time, outlays during the first quarter were 11% higher than a year ago while receipts fell by 2%.

Interest on the national debt has totaled $308.4 billion in fiscal 2025, up 7% from a year ago. Financing costs are projected to top $1.2 trillion for the full year, which would surpass 2024′s record.

The government this year has spent more on interest payments than any other category but Social Security, defense and health care.

Budget deficit rose in December and is now 40% higher than it was a year ago

In other news.

Iranian Army Takes Delivery of 1,000 Drones, Promises ‘Deadly Blows to the Enemy’

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh says the new drones will allow Iran to ‘conquer the sky when necessary.’

1/13/2025 Updated: 1/13/2025

The Iranian Army says it has taken delivery of 1,000 new drones equipped with stealth capabilities and designed to target enemy fortifications.

The Ababil-4 and Ababil-5 drones, which were designed by the Iranian defence ministry, were delivered to various locations throughout Iran, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Tasnim said the weapons were formally handed over to the armed forces on Jan. 13, at a ceremony attended by Iranian Army Commander Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi and Defence Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh.

The state-owned IRNA news agency reported Nasirzadeh said the drones would enable Iran to, “conquer the sky when necessary and deliver deadly blows to the enemy.”

The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), designed by defence ministry experts, include multipurpose strategic drones that can be used for reconnaissance, patrol missions, electronic warfare, data collection, and aerial combat.

Earlier this month, Iran started a series of war games in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps defended the country’s key nuclear installation in Natanz against mock attacks by missiles and drones.

Nasirzadeh said: “What is showcased in the exercises is only the shareable portion of our capabilities. We also possess astonishing equipment, which will be utilized by our armed forces if necessary.”

Nasirzadeh said the drones were equipped with artificial intelligence, although that is usual for all UAVs.

Mousavi said, “The deliveries, unveilings, and exercises across the geography of Iran and the oceans demonstrate the capacity and readiness of the armed forces.”

Tasnim said the drones had a range of 1,240 miles, “high destructive power,” and the capacity to pass through defence layers with low radar profiles.

Tasnim said the Iranian Army had also received Arash drones, which it said can carry out so-called suicide missions at long range and with “pinpoint accuracy.”

In the past 15 months, Iran has also supplied drones and drone technology to its allies in the so-called axis of resistance, the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi terrorist group in Yemen.

Last year, on April 13 and Oct. 1, Iran itself used drones and missiles against targets inside Israel, as part of its war against the Jewish state which began when Hamas terrorists crossed the border from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, and massacred 1,200 Israelis.

The April 13 barrage, which was largely neutralized by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system, was a response to an April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus.

More

Iranian Army Takes Delivery of 1,000 Drones, Promises ‘Deadly Blows to the Enemy’ | The Epoch Times

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Energy price surge risks pushing EU economy into stagflation

14 January 2025

Both crude oil and natural gas prices saw a sharp increase in January amid increasing energy demands and new US sanctions on Russia. Benchmark natural gas futures at NYMEX rose to $4.37 (€4.280) per million British thermal units (MMBtu) briefly before retreating on Monday, a level last seen in December 2022. Meanwhile, crude oil futures, including WTI and Brent, surged to their highest levels since August 2024.

The price surge in natural gas was primarily caused by soaring demands amid cold weather in the northern hemisphere, while the jump in crude prices was triggered by new sanctions imposed by the outgoing Biden administration.  

Natural gas prices double

Natural gas prices have doubled since October 2024 from under $2 per MMBtu to just under $4 per MMBtu as of Tuesday in the Asian session. According to the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased to a weekly average of $14.55 per MMBtu by the week ending 8 January, 27% higher than the same period last year.

The WTI futures surged by 17% and the Brent futures have jumped 14% since early December, reaching thresholds of $78 and $80 per barrel respectively. 

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the US oil inventory has fallen for the seventh consecutive week ending 5 January. Last Friday, the US announced wider sanctions on Russia's oil exports, targeting producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil. 

The elevated energy prices post significant risks to the eurozone's economy, particularly affecting manufacturing activities as the European nations grapple with political uncertainties, one week ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration. 

Stagflation risks ahead in the Eurozone

Surging energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook in the Euro area, echoing the crisis experienced when Russia launched aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to face the challenges in balancing economic growth with mounting inflationary pressures this year. 

"We'd have to see prices rise a bit higher from here but there is the risk that stronger energy prices lead to a stagflationary mix in Europe, which obviously can't sort out its energy policy and is dealing with typically moribund growth", Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Compital.com Australia, said.

Stagflation refers to an economy characterised by high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment – a scenario the eurozone appears increasingly at risk of meeting.

More

Energy price surge risks pushing EU economy into stagflation

Pound tumbles and gilt yields rise as Reeves faces fresh market turmoil

14 January 2025

The pound sank for a fifth day in a row yesterday and long-term government borrowing costs hit a fresh 27-year high amid deepening fears over Labour’s stewardship of the economy.

In another setback to Rachel Reeves as she returned to the UK after a trip to China, sterling slumped by as much as a cent to a 14-month low of $1.21 against the US dollar.

The currency is 10 per cent below its pre-Budget peak in September and has fallen by nearly five cents in just a week.

The pound also lost ground against the euro, languishing below €1.19 at a two-month low. 

And yields on 30-year gilts climbed close to 5.5 per cent, the highest since 1998, while ten-year yields hovered around 4.9 per cent, close to the 17-year high reached last week.

Gilts are bonds sold by the UK Government to raise money. When their prices fall, yields rise. 

Higher yields mean investors are demanding higher returns for lending to Britain. In a further headache for ministers and the Bank of England hoping to keep a lid on inflation, the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose to $81.68, a five-month high.

The latest moves add to the turbulence seen on markets last week – which was set off by jitters over US borrowing and inflation but quickly saw investors turn on Britain amid doubts that Reeves’s tax and spending plans will hold together.

The rise in bond yields has further limited the Chancellor’s options, adding an estimated £10billion a year to Britain’s debt interest bill.

It is likely to mean Reeves either having to cut spending or raise taxes again.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at broker XTB, said anxiety over UK public finances would continue until the Government takes action to address it

She said: ‘The bond market is attempting to intimidate Chancellor Rachel Reeves into forcing the UK to live within its means.

‘We think the bond market will get its way.

More

Pound tumbles and gilt yields rise as Reeves faces fresh market turmoil

Aussie dollar plunges against USD amid it's lowest level in five years

14 January 2025

With the Australian dollar now getting just 61 US cents - its lowest level in five years - consumer sentiment is falling and fears over what it means for mortgages are rising. Other than three days in October 2022, the Aussie dollar has not been below 62 US cents since late March and early April of 2020 - the first time it had reached so low since during the global financial crisis in 2008. This has sparked fears the falling Australian dollar will lead to higher prices on imports and mean the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be reluctant to cut rates, dashing hope of any relief from mortgage payments.

But Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis (pictured) told Daily Mail Australia the situation is not that simple, there are much broader facts to consider and the short answer is no, the exchange rate is not that big a factor. 'What's really going on is the US dollar is strong,' Ms Ellis said on Tuesday. 'And the reason for that is that market participants have changed their minds about what they expect the Fed (US Federal Reserve ) will do. They're now expecting that the Fed will not cut rates as much as they previously thought. And in fact one of the big global banks, Royal Bank of Canada, now say they don't think the Fed will be cutting any further at all. 'So if rates in the US are going to be higher, that makes US dollars denominated securities look more attractive... it's not us, it's them.'

With the Australian dollar now getting just 61 US cents - its lowest level in five years - consumer sentiment is falling and fears over what it means for mortgages are rising. Other than three days in October 2022, the Aussie dollar has not been below 62 US cents since late March and early April of 2020 - the first time it had reached so low since during the global financial crisis in 2008. This has sparked fears the falling Australian dollar will lead to higher prices on imports and mean the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be reluctant to cut rates, dashing hope of any relief from mortgage payments.

Ms Ellis said it was 'possible consumers were reacting to news about the depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, which resulted in some negative headlines about the outlook for interest rates and the broader economy'. As well as a sharp decline from above 69 US cents in late September, consumer confidence around jobs also fell by 2.8 per cent to 127.2 per cent, despite the unemployment rate falling to 3.9 per cent in November. 'Consumer confidence around jobs continues to deteriorate even though recent official data on unemployment has remained low and job vacancies have increased,' the chief economist said. In better news, though, Aussies are feeling more positive about the housing market.

More

Aussie dollar plunges against USD amid it's lowest level in five years

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Yes, but is it safe? What were the long term trials? Were there any long term trials?

UQ and Vaxxas win global prize to accelerate patch-based mRNA vaccine for COVID-19

13 January 2025

The University of Queensland's BASE facility – within the Australian Institute for Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (AIBN) – and Brisbane-based biotechnology company Vaxxas have been announced as stage winners of a prestigious global prize to accelerate a patch-based mRNA vaccine for COVID-19.

The UQ and Vaxxas partnership is one of 4 Concept Stage winners in the US$50 million Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) Patch Forward Prize, established to advance the commercialization of microneedle patch-based mRNA vaccines for COVID-19, seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza.

The US$2 million (A$3.2 million) prize will help to accelerate the use of Vaxxas' high-density microarray patch (HD-MAP) technology to administer mRNA vaccines manufactured at UQ's BASE facility.

The HD-MAP is a small patch containing thousands of microprojections, each coated with a small vaccine dose in a dried formulation. When applied to the skin, the patch delivers the vaccine to immune cells below the skin's surface.

The HD-MAP offers potential benefits over syringe-administered vaccination including a reduced need for cold-chain storage and distribution – a particular challenge for mRNA vaccines – as well as self-administration via an easy-to-use applicator.

UQ BASE Director Professor Timothy Mercer said the HD-MAP has the potential to improve access to mRNA vaccines across all regions, with even greater benefits in lower middle-income countries and hard-to-reach areas where distribution and administration is a challenge.

This prize enables us to progress the work required to improve the thermostability of mRNA vaccines on the Vaxxas patch.

The work could help us to be better prepared for future pandemics as well as make these life-saving vaccines available in places we currently can't reach because of limited cold-chain infrastructure.

Vaxxas is one of Australia's most exciting and innovative companies and we're looking forward to working on the Patch Forward prize together.

Receiving this prize from BARDA is global recognition of our expertise, and testament to the hard work and dedication of our team."

Professor Timothy Mercer,UQ BASE Director 

UQ's BASE facility is recognized as Australia's leading provider of mRNA for research and pre-clinical studies, providing academic and industry partners with access to mRNA technologies since its launch in 2021.

The facility provides end-to-end capabilities for mRNA vaccine development from initial design to clinical trials, allowing the next generation of mRNA vaccines and therapies to be built in Queensland.

Vaxxas focuses on enhancing the performance of existing and next-generation vaccines through its HD-MAP technology, and is targeting initial applications in infectious disease and oncology.

It's core technology was initially developed at UQ after the company was established as a start-up in 2011 through the University's commercialization company UniQuest.

Vaxxas Senior Vice President Pipeline Development Dr. Deborah Pascoe said the BARDA award recognises the value of partnering with a global leader in mRNA research and manufacturing.

"UQ's BASE facility is not only a world leader in mRNA research and manufacturing capabilities, it also has a focus on working with industry to translate critical research into products that can make a significant impact to public health," Dr. Pascoe said.

More

UQ and Vaxxas win global prize to accelerate patch-based mRNA vaccine for COVID-19

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

White Graphene: The One-Atom Wonder Driving Greener Energy and Faster Tech

By University of Surrey January 13, 2025

Scientists have made a significant breakthrough in understanding the growth of “white graphene” on metal substrates. This discovery could lead to more efficient electronics, cleaner energy solutions, and environmentally friendly chemical manufacturing.

Researchers at the University of Surrey have made a breakthrough in understanding how Hexagonal Boron Nitride (hBN), a 2D material, grows and forms nanostructures on metal substrates. This discovery could lead to more efficient electronics, cleaner energy solutions, and environmentally friendly chemical manufacturing.

Known as “white graphene,” hBN is an ultra-thin material only one atom thick. It is highly durable, capable of withstanding extreme temperatures, resisting chemical damage, and blocking electrical currents. These properties make hBN an essential material in advanced electronics, where it protects sensitive microchips and supports the development of faster, more efficient transistors.

Advanced Research and Environmental Benefits

The researchers have also demonstrated the creation of nanoporous hBN, a novel form of the material with tiny, structured voids. This unique structure enables selective absorption and advanced catalysis, significantly enhancing its potential for environmental applications. These include detecting and filtering pollutants, improving hydrogen storage, and serving as electrochemical catalysts for fuel cells in advanced energy systems.

Dr. Marco Sacchi, lead author of the study and Associate Professor at Surrey’s School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, said:

“Our research sheds light on the atomic-scale processes that govern the formation of this remarkable material and its nanostructures. By understanding these mechanisms, we can engineer materials with unprecedented precision, optimizing their properties for a host of revolutionary technologies.”

Theoretical and Experimental Synergy

Working in collaboration with Austria’s Graz University of Technology (TU Graz), the team – led by Dr. Marco Sacchi, with the theoretical work performed by Dr. Anthony Payne and Dr. Neubi Xavier – combined density functional theory and microkinetic modeling to map the growth process of hBN from borazine precursors, examining key molecular processes such as diffusion, decomposition, adsorption and desorption, polymerization, and dehydrogenation. This approach enabled them to develop an atomic scale model that allows for the material to be grown at any temperature.

More

White Graphene: The One-Atom Wonder Driving Greener Energy and Faster Tech

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

"You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone."

Al Capone.

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