Friday, 24 January 2025

Stocks, Trump Mania Forever! A Rising Global Slowdown?

 Baltic Dry Index. 893 -69            Brent Crude 76.22

Spot Gold 2775               US 2 Year Yield 4.29  unch.  

US Federal Debt. 36.390 trillion!

In life you have to rely on the past, and that's called history.

Donald Trump.

In the stock casinos, Trump Mania Forever.

In the real global economy, yet more sign of a booming global economy rolling over. Look away from that falling crude oil price and collapsing Baltic Dry (shipping) Index now.

Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street gains as Trump pushes for rate cuts

Updated Fri, Jan 24 2025 12:29 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Friday, after the S&P 500 hit record highs overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates and cheaper oil prices.

The Bank of Japan raised policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% — the highest since 2008 and in line with economists’ expectations. Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 155.18 against the dollar.

Earlier on Friday, Japan reported its core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3% in December, year on year.

The country’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 0.09%, while the Topix gained 0.16%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 2.06% while China’s CS1300 benchmark has advanced 0.83%

South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.58%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.87%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day up 0.36% at 8,408.9.

Singapore’s central bank eased its monetary policy in line with market expectations, given the rise in core inflation levels in December.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 added 0.53%, notching an all-time intraday high for the second straight session to finish the day at 6,118.71.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 408.34 points, or 0.92%, to 44,565.07, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.22% to 20,053.68. Thursday marked the fourth straight winning session for all three major indexes.

Asia markets live updates: Japan inflation data, rate decision

President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’

Published Thu, Jan 23 2025 11:20 AM EST Updated Thu, Jan 23 2025 4:10 PM EST

President Donald Trump lobbed his first volley at the Federal Reserve, saying Thursday that he will apply pressure to bring down interest rates.

Speaking via video to an assembly of global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the new president in a wide-ranging policy speech did not mention the Fed by name but made clear he would seek lower rates.

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” Trump said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.”

The comments represented an initial strike at Fed officials, with whom he had a highly contentious relationship during his first term in office. He frequently criticized Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump appointed, on occasion calling policymakers “boneheads” and comparing Powell to a golfer who can’t putt.

Stocks reacted slightly positive on the comments, with the Dow Jones Industrial average extending gains as Trump spoke and the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield edging a bit lower.

In the flurry of activity surrounding the president’s first week in office, he has not discussed his views on monetary policy. However, during the presidential campaign Trump indicated that he should get a say in interest rate decisions.

Speaking later in the day to reporters, Trump said he expects the Fed to listen to him and plans to speak to Powell “at the right time.”

For their part, Powell and his colleagues have emphasized the importance of Fed independence. Powell in particular frequently has insisted the central bank does not make decisions based on political considerations. Trump does not have statutory authority over the Fed, though he nominates members to the board of governors.

Fed independence is seen as essential to stable markets, though the central bank has come under fire in recent years for dismissing the inflation surge in 2021 as “transitory,” which led to a series of aggressive hikes.

Trump’s comments come less than a week before the Fed holds is two-day policy meeting that will conclude Wednesday.

More

President Donald Trump says he'll 'demand that interest rates drop immediately'

In other news.

Structural weaknesses in the German economy must ‘absolutely’ be addressed, finance minister says

Published Thu, Jan 23 2025 1:52 AM EST

It is crucial that Germany embarks on a period of economic growth, the country’s finance minister Jörg Kukies told CNBC on Thursday, adding that structural weaknesses must be addressed.

“We’ve just gotten revised down growth forecasts for the IMF again,” Kukies told CNBC’s Karen Tso and Steve Sedgwick at the World Economic forum in Davos.

“The structural weaknesses of our economy absolutely have to be addressed,” he added. “It’s really important that we embark on a path of economic growth.”

Germany’s annual gross domestic product declined in both 2023 and 2024. Quarterly GDP readings have also been muted, but the economy has so far skirted a technical recession.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently forecasting 0.3% GDP growth in Germany for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, according to the January update to its World Economic Outlook. It marked a stark downgrade from its October forecast of 0.8% growth in 2025.

‘Targeted reforms’ to debt brake

Kukies also addressed the debate over Germany’s so-called debt brake, a fiscal rule enshrined in the German constitution. The debt brake limits how much debt the government can take on, and dictates that the size of the federal government’s structural budget deficit must not exceed 0.35% of the country’s annual gross domestic product.

The Finance Minister said some “targeted reforms” to the rule were necessary “because we have so much need for infrastructure spend for railways, on roads, on bridges, on education, on 5G, 6G infrastructure etcetera.”

“But the vast majority of investment [...] in our country has to come from the private sector,” he added, saying that the right incentives for private investors to “rediscover Germany” were needed.

Kukies said German companies were still doing “very well” when it comes to their global businesses — which is reflected in their share price performance — but were “under stress” domestically.

“So that’s the problem that we have to fix,” he said. “We just need to offer them better conditions to invest and do research and development in Germany.”

Kukies became Germany’s finance minister in November, taking over from Christian Lindner who was sacked by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after months of wrangling and clashes over the economy and budget.

Lindner’s dismissal effectively brought an end to the former German ruling coalition, which was made up of Scholz’ Social Democratic Party, Lindner’s Free Democratic Party and the Green party. This, in turn, saw Germany’s national election moved forward to Feb. 23.

“The election is all about economics,” Kukies added.

More

German finance minister Jörg Kukies: Structural weaknesses in economy must be addressed

German electric car sales plunge by more than a third

Withdrawal of government tax breaks triggers collapse in demand for EVs

21 January 2025 7:15pm GMT

Electric car sales in Germany plummeted by 39pc last month as the withdrawal of government tax breaks triggered a collapse in demand.

The number of battery-electric cars sold across Europe’s largest economy in December fell to 33,651, down from 54,654 over the same period last year.

This led to a broader 10pc drop in electric vehicle (EV) sales across Europe as a whole, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

In total, EVs accounted for 13pc of the overall market share in 2024, behind petrol cars and hybrid-electrics, which accounted for 33pc and 31pc respectively.

European sales fell off after a surge in deals the year prior, when subsidies for EV purchases peaked at €9,000 (£7,550) per car.

Registrations last year were also hit by manufacturers holding back EV deliveries so that they would count towards new emission standards being introduced by the European Union.

Demand for EVs crashed across Germany as separate figures last week revealed that the economy shrank for the second year in a row in 2024.

The scale of the challenge facing Germany’s economy was highlighted in a new survey from think tank ZEW, which found that economic sentiment fell from 15.7 to 10.3 in December.

Achim Wambach, president of ZEW, said: “A lack of private household spending and subdued demand in the construction sector continues to stall the German economy.

“If these trends continue in the current year, Germany will fall further behind the other countries of the eurozone.”

Meanwhile, French EV sales also took a battering in December, contracting by 20pc according to ACEA.

Like Germany, France is preparing to axe subsidies for electric cars, reducing incentives to between €2,000 and €4,000 based on household income, down from as much as €7,000.

The withdrawal of state support for electric cars threatens to reduce the competitiveness of European models amid an anticipated flood of cheaper alternatives from China.

However, struggles across Europe led to Britain becoming Europe’s largest EV market for the first time last year, as tough net zero sales targets forced manufacturers to offer steep discounts.

German electric car sales plunge by more than a third

Singapore eases monetary policy for the first time since 2020, warns of growth slowdown

Published Thu, Jan 23 2025 7:30 PM EST

Singapore on Friday loosened its monetary policy for the first time since 2020, citing a faster than expected decline in inflation and warning about a growth slowdown.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it would slightly reduce the slope of its exchange rate policy band, known as the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, or S$NEER.

In its release, MAS said Singapore’s growth momentum is expected to slow this year, and core inflation “has moderated more quickly than expected.”

It added that inflation will remain below 2% this year, “reflecting the return to low and stable underlying price pressures in the economy.”

Headline inflation is forecast to average 1.5%–2.5% in 2025, compared to 2.4% in 2024.

MAS also downgraded its forecasts for the core inflation rate — which strips out prices of accommodation and private transport — to an average of 1%–2% in 2025, lower than the 1.5%–2.5% projected in its October 2024 monetary policy release.

Singapore’s GDP growth is projected to grow at 1%-3% over 2025, slower than the 4% seen in 2024.

“The impact of shifts in global trade policies could weigh on the domestic manufacturing and trade-related services sectors,” MAS wrote.

Unlike other central banks that tweak their domestic lending rates, MAS alters the exchange rate settings of the Singapore dollar.

The central bank strengthens or weakens its currency against a basket of its main trading partners, thus effectively setting the S$NEER. The exact exchange rate is not set, rather, the S$NEER can move within the set policy band, the precise levels of which are not disclosed.

The Singapore dollar weakened slightly after the decision against the greenback, deprecating marginally to 1.3556, while the city-state’s Straits Times index climbed marginally.

Singapore eases monetary policy for the first time since 2020, warns of growth slowdown

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Florida's Condo Market Faces 'Frightening' Crisis

Published Jan 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM ESTUpdated Jan 22, 2025 at 12:04 PM EST

 

The Sunshine State's condo market, which once offered residents affordable housing options, is on the verge of a crisis that could bring owners to their knees, according to experts.

A new law requiring regular inspection and costly maintenance for older condos has recently triggered an explosion of sales in South Florida, where owners are trying to offload their properties before they're faced with a bill they can't afford to pay.

"What is frightening and what people are afraid of and what I'm hearing across the board is astronomical assessments," said real estate agent Sue Christiano of Florida TV station WBBH on Monday. "I have to tell you yes. We're all suffering from shell shock from [Hurricane] Ian."

Why It Matters

Florida's new regulation on older condos is going into effect at the same time as the state, along with the rest of the country, is struggling with rising housing costs—including growing homeowners association fees, stubbornly high mortgage rates and skyrocketing home insurance premiums.

While the legislation was introduced to prevent disasters such as the June 24, 2021, condo collapse that killed 98 people, housing experts have raised alarm over the impact this could have on condo owners in the state. Many of them might be forced to sell their property or face foreclosure should repair assessment exceed the value of the homes—or what they can afford to pay.

What To Know

The new regulation, SB 4D, was introduced in May 2022 after investigations revealed that the collapse of the Champlain Towers South in the Miami suburb of Surfside was linked to years of deferred maintenance and repair, as well as an unwillingness to deal with the building's structural problems.

Under the new law, condos 30 years or older that are three stories high or higher had to receive a first inspection by December 31 to assess the state of the building and determine the cost of necessary repairs. After that first inspection, condo associations face the burden of proving they have the funds to complete the necessary maintenance.

The costs are expected to be high for condo owners. A recent report by the Florida Policy Project published earlier this month estimates that there are 1.1 million condo units that are more than 30 years old in the Sunshine State. The majority of them (58 percent) are concentrated in the counties of Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Collier, Sarasota, Hillsborough and Manatee.

As a result of the inspections and assessments required by the new regulation, "some owners may face eviction, or the building could be condemned," the report warned.

More

Florida's Condo Market Faces 'Frightening' Crisis - Newsweek

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something different.

Shopping bag plastic blamed for rise of deadly superbugs

19 January 2025

Tiny pieces of plastic that have made their way into human bodies could be responsible for the rise of deadly superbugs.

Research has revealed that a build-up of these microplastics – minuscule pieces that break off from items such as shopping bags and food packaging – can be linked to heart disease, dementia and several cancers.

Since plastic can take up to 500 years to completely decompose, these microplastics remain in the environment – across the food chain and drinking water – as well as in the human body.

Now University of Oxford researchers have concluded that they are directly linked to the rise and spread of drug-resistant infections.

These superbugs, which have developed the ability to fight off all but the most potent antibiotics, are thought to be triggered by doctors overprescribing the life-saving drugs.

And experts now believe the prevalence of microplastics in the environment, where the bacteria begin life, is what is causing them to mutate, leading to more drug-resistant infections.

According to the research, microplastics are increasing the spread of deadly superbugs by as much as 200 times.

And the failure to tackle these microplastics could lead to the death of millions.

The World Health Organisation has estimated that, by 2050, around ten million people will die every year due to the increased number of superbugs.

Professor Timothy Walsh, with over 25 years of experience in the subject area, author of the study and a microbiologist at the University of Oxford, said: ‘Given the lack of global plastic waste governance and the increasing amount of microplastics infiltrating all aspects of human activity, these findings are very concerning.

'At the individual level we need to reduce, recycle and reuse – at the global level we need robust plastic waste governance policies.’

Last year the UK Government published its strategy to ‘contain, control and mitigate’ the spread of drug-resistant infections. The report does not include a section on microplastics.

Shopping bag plastic blamed for rise of deadly superbugs

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New research uncovers exotic electron crystal in graphene

January 22, 2025

Researchers from the University of British Columbia, the University of Washington, and Johns Hopkins University have identified a new class of quantum states in a custom-engineered graphene structure.

Published in Naturethe study reports the discovery of topological electronic crystals in twisted bilayer–trilayer graphene, a system created by introducing a precise rotational twist between stacked two-dimensional materials.

"The starting point for this work is two flakes of graphene, which are made up of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb structure. The way electrons hop between the carbon atoms determines the electrical properties of the graphene, which ends up being superficially similar to more common conductors like copper," said Prof. Joshua Folk, a member of UBC's Physics and Astronomy Department and the Blusson Quantum Matter Institute (UBC Blusson QMI).

"The next step is to stack the two flakes together with a tiny twist between them. This generates a geometric interference effect known as a moiré pattern: Some regions of the stack have carbon atoms from the two flakes directly on top of each other, while other regions have the atoms offset," Folk said.

"When electrons hop through this moiré pattern in the twisted stack, the electronic properties are totally changed. For example, the electrons slow way down, and sometimes they develop a twist in their motion, like the vortex in the water at the drain of a bathtub as it is draining out."

The breakthrough discovery reported in this study was observed by an undergraduate student, Ruiheng Su, from UBC, studying a twisted graphene sample prepared by Dr. Dacen Waters, a postdoctoral researcher in the lab of Prof. Matthew Yankowitz at the University of Washington.

While working on the experiment in Folk's lab, Ruiheng discovered a unique configuration for the device where the electrons in the graphene froze into a perfectly ordered array, locked in place yet twirling in unison like ballet dancers gracefully performing stationary pirouettes. This synchronized rotation gives rise to a remarkable phenomenon where electric current flows effortlessly along the edges of the sample while the interior remains insulating because the electrons are immobilized.

---- The topological electron crystal is not only fascinating from a conceptual point of view but also opens up new opportunities for advancements in quantum information. These include future attempts to couple the topological electron crystal with superconductivity, forming the foundation of qubits for topological quantum computers.

More information: Ruiheng Su et al, Moiré-driven topological electronic crystals in twisted graphene, Nature (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08239-6

Provided by University of British Columbia

New research uncovers exotic electron crystal in graphene

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the first weekend of Trump 2.0. So far, so good, at least. But what will Trump do next week? Tariff February is just about one week away. Have a great weekend everyone.

Politicians are making deals for their benefit. Now we are going to make the deals for the American people.

Donald Trump.

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