Baltic
Dry Index. 997 Fri. Brent Crude 74.82
Spot Gold 2635
US 2 Year Yield 4.25 +0.01
USA Federal Debt Jan. 1, 2025
36.295 trillion.
UK National Debt Jan. 1, 2025
4.100 trillion.
Asian stock casinos opened 2025 mostly with losses. US stock futures in early trading suggest a subdued trading day ahead.
Biting the hand that feeds it, Ukraine cut off eastern Europe from access to cheap Russian natural gas. An EU recession, led by Germany, now seems highly likely.
Attempting to be good Europeans too, His Majesty’s (UK) Government is doing its best to put the UK economy into recession this year too.
China stocks lead losses in Asia as manufacturing
slows; Singapore annual GDP growth rises to 4%
Published Wed, Jan 1 20256:59 PM EST
Asian stocks traded mixed Thursday, with
China stocks leading losses as several major markets resumed trading after New
Year’s Day holiday.
China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for
December fell to 50.5, missing economists’ forecast of 51.7 in a Reuters poll.
PMI came in at 51.5 in November and 50.3 in October.
The fall in the PMI figure indicates the “pace of growth [had] eased since November and was
marginal overall,” the report said.
“Exports dragged on demand amid mounting
uncertainties stemming from the overseas economic environment and global
trade,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.
The official PMI for December, released
Tuesday, came in at 50.1 and missed expectations.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 1.42% while
Chinese offshore yuan strengthened by 0.21% to trade at 7.3162 against the
dollar, regaining some ground after notching its weakest level since 2022
October on Tuesday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.47%.
Shares of Sun Art Retail Group plunged over 16%, a day after Chinese e-commerce
giant Alibaba Group announced to sell its majority stake in
the hypermarket chain, according to the Wednesday filing. Alibaba was down
0.73%.
South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.37%,
while the Kosdaq added 0.71%. The markets opened one hour later than usual, due to an opening
ceremony for the new year.
Rhee Chang-yong, the country’s central
bank governor, said in a New Year’s speech released Thursday that monetary
policy will be “managed with flexibility and agility” given the “unprecedented
rise in political and economic uncertainties.
The Bank of Korea, which has delivered back-to-back rate cuts — a
first since 2009 — is set to to announce its next interest rate
decision later this month.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.49%.
Markets in Japan will remain closed for the rest of this week.
Traders in Asia also assessed Singapore’s
gross domestic product data. Based on advance estimates, the economy expanded by 4.3% year on year in the fourth quarter of
2024, slower than the 5.4% growth in the previous quarter.
The advance GDP estimates are compiled
based mostly on data in the first two months of the quarter and are subject to
revision when more data become available, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
The annual economic growth in 2024
accelerated to 4%, compared with 1.1% in 2023, according to official data
released Thursday.
U.S. stock futures were little changed as
traders geared up for a fresh year, after all three major indexes logged
double-digit annual gains in 2024.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were flat, while S&P 500 futures gained
0.06%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced
0.17%.
The S&P 500 recorded an annual gain of
over 20% for a second straight year, jumping 23.31% last year, building on a
gain of 24.2% in 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 12.88% while the
Nasdaq was up by 28.64%.
Asian markets resume trading after New Year's Day holiday; China PMI
S&P 500 posts 23% gain for 2024 as stocks
close slightly lower in final session of year
Updated Tue, Dec 31 2024 4:45 PM EST
Stocks closed lower on Tuesday as
investors wrapped up another booming year that hoisted the S&P 500 to its
second consecutive annual gain exceeding 20%, spurred by enthusiasm for rate
cuts, economic strength and artificial intelligence.
The broad market index closed 0.43% lower
at 5,881.63, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.9%
to 19,310.79 on 2024′s final day of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped just
0.07%, or 29.51 points, lower to 42,544.22.
The S&P 500 surged 23.31% in 2024,
building on a gain of 24.2% from last year. The two-year gain of 53% is the
best since the nearly 66% rally in 1997 and 1998.
Meanwhile, the Dow added 12.88% in 2024,
while the Nasdaq has outperformed with a gain of 28.64%.
The enthusiasm surrounding AI and its
potential productivity boost helped power the major averages to a string of
record highs throughout the year. AI chip darling Nvidia and iPhone giant Apple
— members of the so-called Magnificent 7 — rose 171% and 30%, respectively, and
notched new highs of their own in 2024.
Developments in Washington, D.C., helped
fuel the rally in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has cut its
benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point since September, bolstering
confidence that the U.S. economy can sustain its recent growth. Stocks
also rallied sharply following
President-elect Donald Trump’s win in November, as traders cheered the prospect
of lower taxes and a looser regulatory approach under a Republican
administration.
Bank stocks in particular were one group
that surged after the election, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs closing up
about 41% and 48%, respectively, year to date. Shares of Tesla, whose CEO Elon
Musk is a close ally of Trump, finished the year up more than 62%.
Meanwhile, bitcoin has performed even
better than the stock market, up 119% for the year. Notably, the
cryptocurrency topped $100,000 for the
first time this year.
“I think a lot of what drove that
enthusiasm is you had good developments on all those fronts in 2024. You had
inflation on a downward trajectory, the Fed coming out aggressively in
September when they started cutting rates,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment
officer for BMO Wealth Management. “And for a lot of the time you had a 10-year
Treasury yield that was very well behaved, along with earnings growth. So you
got everything together at once that was going well.”
In the fourth quarter, the Nasdaq and
S&P gained 6.2% and 2.1%, respectively, for a fifth consecutive positive
quarter for the first time since 2021. The Dow is up a mere 0.5% during the
same period for its fourth positive quarter in five.
Despite the strong year-to-date
performance, Wall Street struggled in December’s final days, with investors
taking profits in some of 2024′s biggest winners and fears mounting over rising
rates into year-end. The Dow ended the month down 5.3%. The S&P fell 2.5%,
while the Nasdaq grinded out a gain of 0.5%.
More
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news.
End of Russian gas via Ukraine sparks unease in
eastern Europe
Chisinau (AFP) – Ukraine's decision to turn off the taps keeping Russian gas flowing via its territory to Europe has already sown trouble in the continent's east, with Moldova declaring a state of emergency and Slovakia threatening Kyiv with retaliation.
Issued on: 01/01/2025 - 02:07
Under a five-year deal signed in 2019
Ukraine had allowed Russia to pipe gas to Europe via its territory.
But that agreement is set to expire in the
new year with Kyiv unwilling to extend it as a result of Moscow's invasion.
Although Europe has fought to wean itself
off dependence on Russian gas since President Vladimir Putin sent troops into
Ukraine in February 2022, several eastern European states still look to Moscow
for much of their energy needs.
That represents an ongoing income stream
for the Kremlin which Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky wishes to dry up.
Almost a third of the Russian gas sold to Europe
is transported via Kyiv's territory, said Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, head of the Jacques
Delors Institute's Energy Centre.
The remainder is transported via a
pipeline under the Black Sea to Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, or else by
shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
But Tuesday's data from Ukrainian operator
OGTSU showed deliveries via the only entry point for Russian gas into Ukraine
dropping to zero as of January 1, 2025.
Moldova 'energy blackmail'
The situation is at its most critical in
Moldova, which borders Ukraine and has to contend with Russian-backed
separatists at home.
The tiny nation had already introduced a
60-day state of emergency earlier this month in anticipation of Kyiv's expected
cut.
Then on Saturday, Russia's Gazprom
announced it too would halt gas deliveries due to a dispute over debt, sparking
furious accusations of "oppressive tactics" from Moldova's prime
minister.
In the capital Chisinau, where most of the
festive light displays will be snuffed out, some residents voiced their fear of
what comes next.
"It's terrible, nobody knows what's
going to happen. I've bought some candles and a generator," Cristina, a
21-year-old student who refused to give her surname, told AFP.
Gazprom had already reduced its deliveries
to Moldova since the beginning of the invasion, with the Russian company solely
supplying the unrecognised breakaway state of Transnistria.
But the Moscow-backed region's power
station still provides some two-thirds of the electricity consumed across the
country.
More
End of Russian gas
via Ukraine sparks unease in eastern Europe
Why US Port Workers Are Threatening to Strike,
Again
By Laura Curtis and Brendan Murray January 1, 2025 at 10:00 PM GMT
Ever since metal boxes big enough to hold
50 refrigerators revolutionized shipping nearly 70 years ago, dockworkers have
fought to defend the importance of skilled labor in global commerce. Yet
technological advances in robotics and automation continue to threaten their
roles, especially in US ports. The International Longshoremen’s Association, or
ILA — the 47,000-member union that represents cargo
handlers at every major Eastern US and Gulf Coast port — is threatening to walk
off the job on Jan. 15 as its leaders seek new protections from automation. A
strike would pose economic risks for the country and a political dilemma for
President-elect Donald Trump just days before his inauguration.
Why are US port workers threatening to
strike, again?
The longshoremen — who play a key role in
the global supply chain — are negotiating with the United States Maritime
Alliance, or USMX, a group of shipping lines and terminal operators that employ
them to load and unload container ships. In early October, a three-day
ILA strike won generous pay concessions while barely
denting the US economy; the union agreed to suspend its walkout until
mid-January.
A strike is still a possibility because
one point of contention remains unresolved: the threat of automation. USMX had
offered to maintain the automation language in the now-expired contract, but
the ILA wants stronger protections — specifically closing loopholes that allow
some of their duties to be done by semi-autonomous equipment.
More
US Port Strike: How It Would Impact Economy, Global Supply Chains - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Will There Be a Recession in 2025? Experts Weigh In
December 31, 2024
Some people in the United
States fear Donald Trump's economic agenda could see the economy fall into recession, with
experts giving mixed predictions for the year ahead.
Newsweek has contacted Trump's transition team for
comment via email.
Why It Matters
Despite inflation being
at its lowest level in three years, more jobs being added to the market and the
economy expanding in 2024, many Americans remain concerned about the issues,
with polls showing that the economy was one of the most important issues to
voters during the election.
What To Know
Some people are concerned
that Trump's economic agenda could see the economy fall into recession. Last
month, the incoming president threatened to slap an additional 10 percent
tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 25 percent tariff on Canada and
Mexico.
Canada and Mexico are
major trading partners with the U.S., accounting for almost 30 percent of U.S.
trade volume. It remains uncertain whether Trump will follow through on his
tariff proposals or whether they are part of a broader negotiating strategy as
he prepares to return to office in January, but if the tariffs are imposed,
they could cost Americans an estimated $78 billion annually, NBC News reported, with
everyday goods costing more.
Meanwhile, the
president-elect's pledges to cut business taxes and regulations have investors
hoping for a surge in the American stock market, but there are fears his
measures would open up a gaping hole in the federal budget, which could hurt
the economy.
Trump has also pledged to
hold the largest mass deportation in history and has said he will use the
National Guard to round up migrants and invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798
law that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country the U.S.
is at war with.
The American Immigration
Council estimated that deporting 1 million people annually until the
undocumented population is eliminated could result in a 4.2% to 6.8% reduction
in GDP. "To put this in context, the economy shrank by 4.3 percent during
the Great Recession," the Democrats noted.
A recession occurs when a
country's economic activity declines significantly and lasts for more than a
few months.
More
Will There Be a Recession in 2025? Experts Weigh In
The Mess they’re handing to Trump
The Mess they’re handing to Trump
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19
Turns Five: Looking Back And Looking Forward
Dec
30, 2024,08:00am EST
World
Health Organization officials first learned about a cluster of cases of
pneumonia in the Hubei Province of China on December 31, 2019. This represented
the initial report of what soon became known as Covid-19, the pandemic that has
affected the world in myriad ways. The human suffering has been extraordinary.
The scientific advancements have been remarkable. As we now reach the fifth
anniversary of this pandemic, it’s worth reviewing where we’ve been, how we got
here, and where we may be going.
The
Beginnings Of Covid-19
Chinese
officials reported to the WHO on December 31, 2019, that over 40 cases of
pneumonia of unknown cause had been detected in Wuhan City. Cases were
clustered near the Huanan seafood market, suggesting the zoonotic transmission
of an infectious agent from an animal in the market. However, the report
released by the WHO on January 5,
2020,
noted that, “no evidence of significant human-to-human transmission,” had been
observed.
Chinese
researchers quickly isolated and sequenced the causative agent, a novel
coronavirus initially named 2019-nCoV. A genomic analysis showed that this
virus was related to, but genetically distinct from SARS-CoV, the coronavirus
associated with 2002-2003 SARS pandemic. The 2019-nCoV virus thus was renamed
SARS-CoV-2. Because previous coronavirus outbreaks associated with the SARS-CoV
and MERS-CoV viruses resulted from zoonotic transfers, researchers theorized
that SARS-CoV-2 likewise entered the human population via a zoonotic
transmission. But Chinese authorities quickly shut down and disinfected the
Huanan market, complicating efforts to conclusively identify the source of the
virus.
Despite
the initial statement by the WHO, human-to-human transmission was occurring.
By
mid-January, people infected with the virus had been detected in several
countries. The CDC reported a laboratory-confirmed
case in the U.S. on January 21, 2020. SARS-CoV-2 continued to spread. Countries
throughout the world began implementing travel restrictions. The World Health
Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Schools, restaurants,
and bars closed. Working from home became the norm for many people. The world
changed.
Just
a year later, an estimated 2.5 million people worldwide already had died.
Current
State Of The Covid-19 Pandemic
An
estimated 777 million cases of Covid-19 and 7.1 million deaths have occurred
since the pandemic began, according to the
WHO.
There have been over 100 million cases and approximately 1.2 million deaths in
the United States. Global life expectancy declined by roughly a year and a half
during the early stages of the pandemic. Currently, though, the number of new
cases and deaths per week are low. Roughly 50,000 new cases and 500 deaths were
reported by the WHO during the week ending on December 8, 2024, a steep decline
from the numbers reported earlier in the pandemic.
The
Evolution Of SARS-CoV-2
The SARS-CoV-2 virus
has changed during
the past five years. That’s not at all surprising. Viruses exhibit a high
mutation rate. They change. And mutants that have some selective advantage will
predominate, outcompeting earlier variants. For SARS-CoV-2, these selective
advantages include increased transmissibility, enhanced evasion of the immune
system, and increased disease severity. The original form of the virus quickly
was replaced by the Alpha and then the Delta variants. The Omicron variant
first was detected in late 2021 and has remained the dominant variant since
then. Each variant was more transmissible than its predecessors. Subvariants of
Omicron, like JN.1,
have arisen, but no major departure from the Omicron variant has been
identified.
More
Five years in, a review of SARS-CoV-2 and the Covid-19 pandemic
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
|
New
graphene aerogel combines unprecedented stiffness and elasticity for impact
protection Dec 31 2024
More New graphene
aerogel combines unprecedented stiffness and elasticity for impact protection |
||||||||||
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
A permanent Governor of the Bank of England would be one of the
greatest men in England. He would be a little 'monarch' in the City; he would
be far greater than the 'Lord Mayor.' He would be the personal embodiment of
the Bank of England; he would be constantly clothed with an almost indefinite
prestige. Everybody in business would bow down before him and try to stand well
with him, for he might in a panic be able to save almost anyone he liked, and
to ruin almost anyone he liked. A day might come when his favour might mean
prosperity, and his distrust might mean ruin. A position with so much real
power and so much apparent dignity would be intensely coveted.
Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street, 1873.
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