Baltic Dry Index. 1048 +79 Brent Crude 81.10
Spot Gold 2685 US 2 Year Yield 4.40 0.13
Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.
Warren Buffett.
In Asia this morning, more wobble in the stock casinos fretting over last Friday’s strong US jobs report.
I have my doubts that the figures weren’t massaged in some way, leaving “revisions” to take place under President Trump's new term, now just one week away. But the punters in stocks and the US Treasury markets are for now taking that jobs report at face value.
Look away from that rising, inflationary crude oi price now.
Asia-Pacific markets trade lower after strong U.S.
jobs report clouds Fed rate-cut path
Updated Sun, Jan 12 20251 0:28 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Monday,
after U.S. jobs report on Friday dampened investors' hopes for early interest
rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
China's exports and imports in December beat
expectations by a significant margin. Exports rose 10.7% from a year
earlier, beating Reuters' expectations of a 7.3% year-on-year growth. The
country's imports in December unexpectedly rose 1%, compared with Reuters'
estimates of a 1.5% decline.
Mainland China's benchmark CSI 300,
however, was down 0.22%, having closed
at its lowest level since September 2024 on Friday.
Investors in Asia will continue to keep an
eye on Chinese bond yields after the country's central bank suspended purchases
of government bonds last Friday. China's 10-year bond yield plunged to a
record low this month.
The country's onshore yuan hit a 16-month
low against the dollar last week, while the offshore yuan has been on a
multi-month slide since last September.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%,
trading below 19,000 for the first time since last September, data from LSEG
showed.
India is expected to report its inflation
numbers.
Japan markets are closed for a holiday.
South Korea's Kospi lost
0.85% while the Kosdaq dipped 0.53%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.17%.
Looking to the rest of this week, the Bank
of Korea is expected to meet this Thursday, and Australia is slated to post its
unemployment rate for December on the same day. China will be posting its GDP
for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Friday, alongside retail sales and industrial
output data.
U.S. stocks
dropped Friday after a hot jobs report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
696.75 points, or 1.63%, to close at 41,938.45. The S&P 500 slid 1.54% to
5,827.04, while the Nasdaq
Composite fell 1.63% to 19,161.63. Friday's losses pushed the major
benchmarks into the red for 2025.
U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December,
while economists polled by Dow Jones expected
to see an increase of 155,000. The unemployment rate, which was projected
to remain at 4.2%, fell to 4.1% during the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked
to its highest level since late 2023 after the report.
Asia
markets live: China trade data, India CPI, China bond yields
Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street
gears up for key economic data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates
Updated Sun, Jan 12 2025 6:45 PM EST
Stock futures were little changed on
Sunday as investors look toward a data-heavy week, which includes the December
report on U.S. inflation and big bank earnings.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
60 points, or 0.1%. S&P
500 futures edged higher by 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added
0.04%.
This week will give investors a clearer
picture of the state of the economy following a blowout jobs report last week
that sent stocks tumbling. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report
raised concerns that the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution moving
forward, which casts doubt on further interest rate cuts.
Investors will also monitor the kickoff of
the fourth-quarter earnings season in earnest, with banks including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reporting on
Wednesday. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will post
results on Thursday.
The 30-stock Dow and S&P 500 both
ended the week 1.9% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3%, with all three
indexes notching their second-consecutive weekly loss.
“With current inflation and inflation
expectations elevated and sticky, and with bond yields having risen sharply and
quickly, equity investors are starting to become more cautious,” said Katherine
Nixon, chief investment officer for wealth management at Northern Trust. “In a
classic ‘too much of a good thing,’ the constructive growth backdrop is leading
to a higher-for-longer interest rate forecast.”
Traders currently give more than 97% odds
that the central bank will leave rates unchanged at its Jan. 29 meeting, and a
nearly 75% chance that the Fed holds the line again in March, according to
the CME FedWatch Tool.
Data this week includes the December
consumer price index on Wednesday morning. Before that, investors will parse
wholesale inflation with December’s producer price index report on Tuesday.
Wall Street also await commentary from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid
and New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday.
Stock futures are little changed ahead of key data, earnings season: Live updates
In other news.
Oil jumps on expectations new US sanctions to cut
Russian supply
Brent crude rises above $81 as new
sanctions disrupt Russian oil exports to China, India
Jan 13, 2025
Oil prices extended gains for a third
session on Monday, with Brent rising above $81 a barrel to its highest in more
than four months, as wider U.S. sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude
exports to top buyers China and India.
Brent crude futures climbed $1.48, or
1.86%, to $81.24 a barrel by 0113 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $81.49,
the highest since Aug. 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose
$1.53, or 2% to $78.10 a barrel after touching a high of $78.39, the most since
Oct. 8.
Brent and WTI have risen by more than 6%
since Jan. 8 and both contracts surged after the U.S. Treasury imposed
wider sanctions on
Russian oil on Friday. The new sanctions included producers Gazprom Neft and
Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting
the revenue Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.
Russian
oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, pushing China
and India, the world's top and third largest oil importers respectively, to
source more crude from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, which will
boost prices and shipping costs, traders and analysts said.
"The new Russian sanctions from the
outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more
uncertainty to the (first quarter) outlook," RBC Capital analysts said in
a note.
The latest batch of sanctions covered
ships linked to 1.5 million barrels per day of seaborne Russian crude oil
activity on average in 2024, the bank estimated. This consisted of 750,000 bpd
of exports to China and 350,000 bpd to India.
"Overall, the doubling of tankers
sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical
headwind to post-invasion crude flows," the analysts said.
Many of the tankers named in the latest
sanctions have been used to ship oil to India and China as previous Western
sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022
shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some of the ships have also
moved oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.
"The last round of OFAC sanctions
targeting Russian oil companies and a very large number of tankers will be
consequential in particular for India," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of
research at Onyx Capital Group.
Oil prices surge as U.S. sanctions disrupt Russian crude exports
Urgent warning to Americans as key economic
indicator hits highest level since 2008 financial crisis
Published: 04:37, 12
January 2025 | Updated: 04:37, 12 January 2025
US corporate bankruptcies hit their
highest level since the 2008 financial crisis - as Americans tighten their
belts.
Companies have also incresingly been
grappling with high rising debts - driven by high interest rates that
caused borrowing costs to spike.
In 2024, 686 companies filed for
bankruptcy, up 8 percent from 2023 - and almost more than 2021 and 2022
combined. It also marks the most filings since 2010, according to data from
S&P Global Market Intelligence.
While the Federal Reserve has started
lowering interest rates, relief for businesses will be limited. Forecasts
suggest only a half-point rate cut in 2025, keeping pressure on struggling
companies.
Between 2021 and 2022 - when borrowing
costs were low and Americans were still spending stimuls checks - only
777 bankruptcy filings were recorded.
That is a a stark contrast to the
636 bankruptcy filings in 2023 and the 686 in
2024.
At least 30 of last year's bankruptcy
filings involved firms with over $1 billion in liabilities, underscoring the
scale of the financial strain.
A rising number of businesses have turned
to 'liability management exercises' -financial tactics aimed at avoiding
bankruptcy by restructuring their debts.
While these moves have become increasingly
common, experts warn they are often just a temporary fix and can lead to
companies eventually filing for bankruptcy anyway.
Joshua Clark from Fitch Ratings explains
that these moves can hurt lenders, as they typically mean taking on more debt
and pushing a company closer to collapse.
The most high profile bankruptcies have
been among restaurant and retail chains - expecially those with locations
across America.
As of December 20, Coresight Research
tracked 48 retail bankruptcies in the US compared with 25 during the same
period a year ago.
And at least 22 restaurant chains filed
for bankruptcy this year, the highest number since 2020, according to
BankruptcyData, a company that tracks filings.
More
A Bond Selloff Is Rocking the World. You Might
Want to Take the Other Side.
A rare ‘bear steepening’ trade is
pressuring governments and worrying investors
Updated Jan. 12, 2025 12:00 am ET
Wall Street is really worried about bonds.
It might be time to buy some.
On Friday, a
jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year
Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year
paper to 4.962%.
What is spooking markets, however, is that
much of the recent rise in yields doesn’t appear to reflect expectations of
stronger economic growth. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying
a higher discount or “term premium” to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the
Federal Reserve suggest. Some analysts attribute this to the possibility
of Donald Trump’s
promised tariffs derailing the global economy and leading to a jump in
inflation, while his tax cuts bloat budget deficits further.
Movements in term premiums are usually
strongly correlated across the globe, and the consequences are being felt more
starkly in weaker economies overseas, especially
in Britain. There, 30-year yields are trading around 5.4%, a 27-year high.
U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, who has made a public pledge to appease
bond markets while also attempting to set out some moderate growth ambitions in
her latest budget, is under strong pressure.
France is also in the hot seat: The
government is shackled by a parliamentary deadlock, and now has borrowing costs
firmly above those of Greece.
In a further sign of trouble, the pound
and the euro are falling, with the latter sliding close to parity with the U.S.
dollar. The S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 ended Friday down 1.5%, and
0.8%, respectively.
But counterintuitively, bonds may
ultimately prove to be the safest place amid the storm.
More
A Bond Selloff Is Rocking the World. You Might Want to Take the Other Side. - WSJ
None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular; a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What's required is thinking rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
Warren Buffett.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign?
January
10, 2025
Recession
fears for 2025 are fading fast, with market models and economist forecasts
signaling a slim chance of economic contraction. But with optimism running
high, could markets be
misreading the risks?
According
to the New York Fed's recession model, there is a 29% probability that the U.S.
will enter a recession by the end of 2025. This is a dramatic decline compared
to the elevated probabilities seen during the Federal Reserve's aggressive
monetary tightening in 2022 and 2023.
In
June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities
based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills
— estimated a 70% chance of a recession within a year, marking the highest
level since 1982.
Notably,
recession odds have tumbled since early November 2024. Kalshi betting markets
showed a sharp drop from over 50% to just 23% following Donald Trump‘s
election victory.
Recession
odds have been tumbling because investors expect a strong boost to economic
growth under Trump’s incoming administration. Expectations are centered around
fresh tax cuts for individuals and corporations, as well as pro-business
policies that could fuel spending and investment.
Growth
Data Defies Expectations
The
U.S. economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of high interest
rates and persistent inflation. GDP growth in 2024 significantly outpaced other
advanced economies, fueled by robust consumer spending.
The
third quarter of 2024 saw an annualized GDP growth of 3.1%, revised up from
2.8%. This marked the strongest quarterly performance of the year. Personal
spending increased at its fastest pace since the first quarter of 2023, growing
3.7%.
Meanwhile,
the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates a 2.7% growth rate for the fourth
quarter. That figure has been revised higher as of Jan. 7.
Oxford
Economics also puts the probability of a recession at its lowest level in over
two years. That’s due to a surge in leading indicators that suggest strong
momentum heading into 2025.
Too
Much Optimism?
However,
there are signs that the optimism may be overblown.
Capital
Economics stated that Trump's anticipated tariffs and immigration restrictions
could weigh on GDP growth. The firm expects these measures, if enacted by
mid-2025, to push annualized GDP growth down to 1.5% while temporarily driving
inflation back up to 3%.
Michael
Gayed highlighted
that tariffs could also lead to layoffs as companies struggle to balance rising
costs. "If tariffs become a bigger thing in the new year, it's reasonable
to think that companies could consider layoffs to balance out some of the additional
costs, if they don't pass them entirely on to the consumer," he said.
The
expert sounded the alarm over renewed inflation risks as periods of Fed easing
after extended tightening cycles have triggered inflationary surges.
More
US 2025 Recession
Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign?
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
How do I know if I have the cold, flu, Covid or something else?
11
January 2025
In
the winter months, it seems few are safe from some kind of illness. Be it flu, Covid norovirus or even the
common cold.
While
many of the germs that cause this misery can circulate throughout the year,
scientists think that the winter surge of flu and cold activity may be because
we spend more time indoors and the cold, dry air may weaken our defenses.
But
knowing what these bugs are and how
they spread can help. While it may be difficult to make it through the season
totally unscathed, there are some things you can do to protect yourself from
these respiratory and stomach viruses.
One
way to protect yourself from all viruses is to wash your hands
Seriously.
Rigorous and frequent handwashing is crucial to reduce the spread of
norovirus, colds, flu and
COVID-19.
This
is especially true after using the bathroom and eating or preparing food, the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
Do
I have the cold, the flu, COVID-19 or something else?
Some
symptoms are hard to distinguish among illnesses, especially with respiratory
viruses
Norovirus
is a foodborne illness that can spread through water and contaminated surfaces
and can cause vomiting, diarrhea, nausea and stomach pain for about one to
three days.
The
common cold can be caused by several different types of viruses and can cause a
runny nose, congestion, cough, sneezing, sore throat, headaches, body aches or
low fever for less than a week.
The
flu, caused by influenza viruses that are always changing, leads to fever,
chills, cough, sore throat, runny nose, body aches, headaches and feeling
tired. Flu symptoms tend to hit more quickly than cold symptoms, and can last
anywhere from a few days to two weeks.
COVID-19
can cause fever, chills, cough, short of breath, sore throat, congestion, loss
of smell or taste, fatigue, aches, headache, nausea, or vomiting for several
days.
RSV
can cause a runny nose, congestion, coughing, sneezing, wheezing, fever and a
loss of appetite for a week or two.
More
How do I know if I have the cold, flu, Covid or something else?
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
breakthrough facilitates damage-free ultrathin flexible displays
EP&T Magazine January 11, 2025
SEOULTECH’s graphene-assisted laser lift-off method
keeps ultrathin displays flawless and ready for wearable technology
Researchers from the institute Seoul National
University of Science and Technology (SEOULTECH) in South Korea have pioneered
a graphene-based laser lift-off technique that prevents damage while separating
ultrathin OLED displays. By utilizing graphene’s ability to absorb UV light and
distribute heat, the group has achieved pristine, flexible displays. This
advancement opens doors for ultra-thin, stretchable devices that fit
comfortably against human skin, revolutionizing wearable device technology.
As the demand for thinner, lighter, and more
flexible electronic devices grows, the need for advanced manufacturing
processes has become critical. Polyimide (PI) films are widely used in these
applications due to their excellent thermal stability and mechanical
flexibility. They are crucial for emerging technologies like rollable displays,
wearable sensors, and implantable photonic devices. However, when the thickness
of these films is reduced below 5 μm, traditional laser lift-off (LLO)
techniques often fail. Mechanical deformation, wrinkling, and leftover residues
frequently compromise the quality and functionality of ultrathin devices,
making the process inefficient and costly.
The SEOULTECH research team, led by Professor Sumin
Kang, has introduced a novel GLLO process that integrates a layer of chemical
vapor deposition-grown graphene between the PI film and its glass carrier.
“Graphene’s unique properties, such as its ability
to absorb ultra-violet (UV) light and distribute heat laterally, enable us to
lift off thin substrates cleanly, without leaving wrinkles or residues,” Kang
says.
Breakthrough
has far-reaching implications
Using the GLLO method, the researchers successfully
separated 2.9μm thick ultrathin PI substrates without any mechanical damage or
carbon residue left behind. In contrast, traditional methods left the
substrates wrinkled and the glass carriers unusable due to stubborn residues.
This breakthrough has far-reaching implications for stretchable electronics and
wearable devices.
The researchers further showcased the potential of
the GLLO process by creating organic light-emitting diode (OLED) devices on
ultrathin PI substrates. OLEDs processed with GLLO retained their electrical
and mechanical performance, showing consistent current
density-voltage-luminance properties before and after lift-off. These devices
also withstood extreme deformations, such as folding and twisting, without
functional degradation. Additionally, carbonaceous residues on the glass
carrier were reduced by 92.8%, enabling its reuse. These findings highlight
GLLO as a promising method for manufacturing ultrathin and flexible electronics
with improved efficiency and reduced costs.
Plans
to optimize the process further
“Our method brings us closer to a future where
electronic devices are not just flexible, but seamlessly integrated into our
clothing and even our skin, enhancing both comfort and
functionality,” added Kang. Using this method flexible devices that provide
real-time monitoring, smartphones that roll up, or fitness trackers that flex
and stretch with your movements can be designed easily.
Moving forward, the research team plans to optimize
the process further, focusing on complete residue elimination and enhanced
scalability. With its potential to revolutionize the electronics industry, the
GLLO process marks a significant stride toward a future where ultrathin,
flexible, and high-performance devices become viable options for daily use.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
If the
reason for doing something is that everyone else is doing it, it's not a good
enough reason.
Warren
Buffett.
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