Monday, 27 January 2025

Stocks, Trump Week Two. Fed Week, Unch. Or Down? Tech Rout.

Baltic Dry Index. 778 -46            Brent Crude 77.87

Spot Gold 2753               US 2 Year Yield 4.27 -0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.402 trillion!

The superpowers often behave like two heavily armed blind men feeling their way around a room, each believing himself in mortal peril from the other, whom he assumes to have perfect vision. Each side should know that frequently uncertainty, compromise, and incoherence are the essence of policymaking. Yet each tends to ascribe to the other a consistency, foresight, and coherence that its own experience belies. Of course, over time, even two armed blind men can do enormous damage to each other, not to speak of the room.

Henry A. Kissinger.

Trump mania week two. Will the Fed kowtow to Trump and lower their key interest rate?

With the AI bubble bust, it may not matter much.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher as investors parse China PMI and industrial profits data

Updated Mon, Jan 27 2025 12:45 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher Monday, as investors assessed China’s manufacturing and industrial profit data.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.68%, while the Topix added 0.39%. Shares of Japan’s chip-related companies dropped as Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s free open-source large-language model threatens U.S. AI dominance. Advantest fell 8.5%, while Tokyo Electron slipped 4.72%. Renesas Electronics fell 1.33%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.88%, while the mainland CSI 300 was flat.

China’s factory activity growth in January unexpectedly contracted, with the official purchasing managers’ index for January coming in at 49.1 versus Reuters’ estimates of 50.1. In December, China’s industrial profits jumped 11% from a year earlier.

Australian, Taiwan and South Korean markets were closed for holidays.

China on Sunday introduced new initiatives to encourage the growth of index investment products in its latest attempt to support its struggling stock market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to actively support the growth of equity and bond ETFs, amongst other measures.

The move follows CSRC’s measures last Thursday to encourage large state-owned mutual funds and insurers to purchase more shares.

Hong Kong is also expected to report trade data for December.

Last Friday in the U.S., the three major averages snapped a four-day winning streak. The S&P 500 closed lower after hitting new records on Friday, as investors took some profit to end a solid week centered on President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

The benchmark index shed 0.3% to 6,101.24, reversing course after hitting a fresh intraday record earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5% to 19,954.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 140.82 points, or 0.3%, to 44,424.25.

Excitement toward Trump’s pro-business policies has largely pushed risk assets higher last week as investors focused on his inauguration. All three major averages posted their second straight positive week, signaling that the bull market is back in full force after December’s pullback.

Asia markets live update: China PMI, China industrial profit

European markets set to start the new trading week on a somber note

Updated Mon, Jan 27 2025 12:45 AM EST

European markets are expected to start the new trading week in negative territory on Monday, with investors in the region gearing up for a busy period of earnings and the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 7 points lower at 8,488, Germany’s DAX down 68 points at 21,320, France’s CAC down 36 points at 7,893 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 173 points at 36,242, according to data from IG.

Earnings come from Ryanair on Monday and data releases include Germany’s Ifo business climate survey.

There will be more earnings releases throughout the week, with LVMHShellASMLRocheDeutsche Bank and Nokia among the companies reporting this week.

On Thursday, the euro zone and core European economies France and Germany report their latest growth data, and the European Central Bank will be closely watched as it announces its latest monetary policy decision.

Overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and Hong Kong markets traded mostly higher as investors assessed China’s manufacturing and industrial profit data.

U.S. stock futures fell early Monday as investors look ahead to a major earnings week, with four out of seven companies in the “Magnificent Seven’” set to post quarterly earnings: Meta PlatformsMicrosoft and Tesla each report on Wednesday, and Apple will release results on Thursday. 

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

The Week Ahead

Jan. 26, 2025 6:30 AM ET

Market participants better buckle up, for Wall Street is in store for an incredibly busy week.

Monetary policy is back in the spotlight, with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. Following three straight meetings to close out 2024 where the central bank delivered interest rate cuts, economic data since has recalibrated traders' expectations. The Fed is widely expected to take no action this time.

The earnings season turns into a deluge. Most notably, four of the Magnificent Seven companies are scheduled to report: Microsoft (
MSFT), Facebook-parent Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday. Other major names that will be reporting include Boeing (BA), Starbucks (SBUX), IBM (IBM), Visa (V), Caterpillar (CAT), and Intel (INTC).

The economic calendar will be pretty packed as well. Investors will receive an update on U.S. gross domestic product growth, along with a reading on the Fed's favorite inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

The Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha

In other news, fueling the BRICS Alliance?

Denmark in 'crisis mode' and 'utterly freaked out' after Trump vows 'we'll get Greenland'

26 January 2025

The Danish government is reported to be in "crisis mode" and "freaking out" after Donald Trump double downed on his demands to take control of Greenland.

The US President told reporters on board his presidential plane that he was confident of acquiring the territory.

"I think the people want to be with us," he said when asked about Greenland.

"I don't really know what claim Denmark has to it, but it would be a very unfriendly act if they didn't allow that to happen because it's for the protection of the free world.

"I think Greenland we'll get it because it has to do with the freedom of the world.

"It has nothing to do with the United States other than that we're the one that can provide the freedom. They can't."

His remarks follow a 45-minute telephone conversation between the US President and Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen.

According to the Financial Times, several European officials who were briefed on the call described the conversation as "fiery" and "horrendous."

The sources claimed Trump had been aggressive and confrontational, following Frederiksen's insistence the autonomous island was not for sale.

"The intent was very clear. They want it. The Danes are now in crisis mode," a source told the FT.

"The Danes are utterly freaked out by this," they added.

Greenland is strategically important for the US, as it lies on the shortest route from North America to Europe.

It also has significant deposits of important natural resources, such as uranium, iron and rare earth minerals.

Denmark's Defence Minister has admitted that his country has not done enough to protect Greenland in the past.

Troels Poulsen said the government planned to rectify the mistake by spending £1.2 billion to beef up security.

The money will finance deploying two new inspection ships, two drones and two dog sledge patrols.

Denmark in 'crisis mode' and 'utterly freaked out' after Trump vows 'we'll get Greenland'

Trudeau threatens tariff war if Trump moves ahead with duty reforms

24 January 2025

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has warned the US of the possible consequences if President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff reforms are applied to its North American neighbour.

It will be American consumers who will pay more in the end, with the outgoing Canadian leader vowing to respond in kind, triggering a tariff war between the two nations.

He said to reporters in Ottawa: “Whether it be back on January 20th, on February 1st or February 15th as a Valentine’s Day present, or on April 1st or whenever” Canada will respond with retaliatory tariffs and “prices for American consumers on just about everything will go up”.

“We don’t think he wants that.”

Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that he still plans to place tariffs on Canada and Mexico at 25% rates starting as soon as February 1.

But, despite the president’s repeated claim that America does not need Canada, nearly a quarter of the oil consumed in the US per day comes from Canada.

America’s northern neighbour also has 34 critical minerals and metals that the US is eager for and is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminium and uranium.

“The US should be working even more with Canada on our energy, on our critical minerals, on the goods they need to deliver the economic growth that Donald Trump has promised,” Mr Trudeau said.

“That is our first choice. If they do move forward on tariffs we are ready to respond in a strong way but in a way… to figure out how to get them removed as soon as possible.”

Canada is looking at putting retaliatory tariffs on American orange juice, toilets and some steel products if Mr Trump follows through with his threat, which was initially planned to come into effect on day one of his second term of office.

When Mr Trump imposed higher tariffs during his first term, Canada announced billions of dollars in new duties in 2018 against the US in a tit-for-tat response to new taxes on Canadian steel and aluminium.

Everything is on the table.” Mr Trudeau said.

“It would be bad for Canada, but it would also be bad for American consumers.”

Nearly 2.7 billion US dollars (£2.2 billion) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. Canada is the top export destination for 36 US states.

Trudeau threatens tariff war if Trump moves ahead with duty reforms

Brazil to demand explanations on 'degrading treatment' of deportees

26 January 2025

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs plans to seek explanations from the U.S. government over the "degrading treatment" of Brazilians on a deportation flight, the ministry wrote on X on Saturday night. 

Last Friday, Brazilian deportees from the U.S. arrived in Brazil in handcuffs. Upon arrival, some of the passengers also reported mistreatment during the flight, according to local reports.

The plane, carrying 88 Brazilian passengers, 16 U.S. security agents, and eight crew members, was originally scheduled to arrive in Belo Horizonte in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. However, it made an unscheduled stop in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas, due to technical problems, according to Brazil's Justice Ministry. 

There, Brazilian officials ordered the removal of the handcuffs, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva designated a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) flight to complete their journey, the government said in a statement Saturday.

The flight was the second this year from the U.S. carrying undocumented migrants deported back to Brazil and the first since U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration, according to Brazil's federal police. 

Officials from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement contacted late on Saturday for comment did not immediately reply.

Brazil to demand explanations on 'degrading treatment' of deportees

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The four factors which could drive a recession in the UK

26 January 2025

The UK economy has barely grown in almost a year and remains smaller than in March, Government borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since 2008, and it appears “stagflation” may resurface despite Government plans to boost growth and tackle inflation.

Labour’s economic plan has got off to a rocky start, with the prospect of official figures next month showing little to no growth in its first six months of government.

The Bank of England has also pencilled in no growth again for the fourth quarter, following zero expansion in the previous three months.

This combination of economic factors points to the possibility of a recession if there is not an uptick in growth.

Poor GDP growth

The latest growth figures for the UK economy showed weaker-than-expected growth.

While November’s data showed a return to growth for the first time since August, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) staggered to a level which offered little respite to Chancellor Rachel Reeves when the figures were announced earlier this month.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated the UK economy grew in November by 0.1 per cent after falling by 0.1 per cent in both September and October.

Most economists were expecting the UK’s GDP to rebound by at least 0.2 per cent in November.

But November’s paltry growth means the economy would need to expand by at least 0.1 per cent when December’s figures are released just to avoid contracting overall in the final quarter of the year.

If the UK’s economy shrinks over two consecutive quarters, the country would officially be in a recession.

Surging government borrowing costs

Growth figures followed a difficult start to the year for the Chancellor after government borrowing costs surged and the value of the pound slumped earlier this month amid worries over the economy and UK debt levels.

While the markets have since calmed slightly after the sell-off of government bonds fell back thanks to a surprise fall in inflation, pressure is still mounting on the Chancellor indicating that she may be on track to miss her fiscal rules.

Higher yields on government bonds – or gilts – as well as weaker-than-expected growth and forecasts for rising inflation are seen to be trimming Labour’s already slim £9.9bn financial headroom and putting Reeves’s stability rules under threat.

She is also having to contend with a bigger-than-expected surge in government borrowing last month to £17.8bn – the highest level for four years according to the ONS.

More

The four factors which could drive a recession in the UK

Surge in robot demand as Budget tax raid makes humans unaffordable

Employers turn to automation after National Insurance and minimum wage rises

25 January 2025

Rachel Reeves’s Budget has triggered a surge in demand for robots as the Chancellor’s Budget tax raid makes employing human workers too expensive.

Automate UK, the industry body for industrial robots, said over half of its members had seen a jump in enquiries since Ms Reeves announced an increase in employers’ National Insurance rates and the minimum wage.

Peter Williamson, the head of the organisation, said industries that had traditionally relied on cheap labour were increasingly turning to robots, and that this was reversing a slump in investment before the Budget.

Sales of industrial robots, such as those used in car production and food preparation, fell by 30pc in the first nine months of 2024 in Britain, although rose in areas such as food and drink, logistics and consumer goods – all of which rely on low-wage workers.

The UK is seen as a global laggard in robot investment, in part owing to an abundance of cheap labour.

However, Mr Williamson said this had started to change as higher employment costs force companies to reconsider.

From April, employers’ National Insurance (NI) contributions will rise from 13.8pc to 15pc, while the minimum wage will climb to £12.21 an hour. The threshold at which employers pay NI will also fall from £9,000 to £5,000.

More, subscription required

Surge in robot demand as Budget tax raid makes humans unaffordable

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Finally, some common sense.

She refused to get COVID vaccine. Kansas court says hospital was wrong to fire her

January 24, 2025

St. Luke's Health Systems improperly fired an employee when it didn’t accept a religious exemption request to the COVID-19 vaccine, according to the Court of Appeal of the State of Kansas.

The hospital denied a request from Sheryl Glean in November 2021, saying she expressed a concern for physical harm from the vaccine rather than a “sincerely held religious belief.” In her request, Glean states that her religious beliefs include that her body is “holy” and that she consulted with her pastor and family members regarding vaccination.

“I’ve talk (sic) to my Pastor from my church and other family members about my decision refusing to get the vaccine and I did my own research regarding Covid vaccine and they help me with my decisions,” Glean wrote in an online exemption request to St Lukes.

Glean worked at St. Luke's South Hospital, which is in Overland Park.

St. Luke's argued that Glean’s request focuses on concern about bodily harm and not religious belief. The Kansas Department of Labor sided with Glean, saying that Glean’s termination was punitive action for failing to comply with vaccination request.

The Johnson County District Court, however, ruled in St. Luke’s favor when it reviewed the complaint. On Friday, the Appeals Court of Kansas ruled that the district court improperly interpreted a 2021 law governing requirements and exemptions for employers’ COVID-19 policies.

Interpreting vaccine exemption law

The law says employers must accept an exemtion request if it would endanger an employee’s life or the life of someone who lives with them, which would require confirmation by a health care professional, or if it violates “sincerely held religious beliefs of the employee, as evidence by an accompanying written statement signed by the employee.”

The appeals court said St. Luke’s improperly interpreted this law to mean it could “scrutinize an employee's statement to determine whether the employee's invocation of the religious exemption was religiously based.”

“The statute does not require the employee to articulate a basis for their sincerely held religious beliefs, nor does it require the employee to provide written evidence of those religious beliefs, as the district court held Glean was required to do. It only requires the employee to explain in a written statement that complying with a COVID-19 vaccine mandate would violate their sincerely held religious beliefs, which Glean did,” the appeals court wrote in its decision.

Further, the court found a scriptural basis for Glean's belief of the holiness of the body in the Bible, which calls bodies "temples of the holy spirit" in Corinthians 6:19.

The law allows the state to take civil action against St. Lukes, charging it up to $50,000 per violation if it’s found St. Luke’s knowlingly violated the bills provisions, that it displayed bad faith in interpreting the law, whether it’s corrected the violation, if it has been fined before and “any other mitigating or aggravating factor.”

The law would stop any civil action if an employer reinstates an employee with back pay from the date of the complaint to the employee’s reinstatement.

She refused to get COVID vaccine. Kansas court says hospital was wrong to fire her

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Groundbreaking Graphene Discovery Opens Path to Quantum Computing with Topological States

Scientists from UBC and other institutions discovered topological quantum states in graphene, unlocking new possibilities for quantum computing.

Written by Gadgets 360 Staff | Updated: 24 January 2025 21:51 IST

A groundbreaking discovery in graphene research has unveiled a new class of quantum states in a precisely engineered structure. Scientists from the University of British Columbia (UBC), the University of Washington, and Johns Hopkins University identified topological electronic crystals in a twisted bilayer–trilayer graphene system. The structure was created by stacking two-dimensional graphene layers with a slight rotational twist, leading to transformative changes in electronic properties.

Discovery and Methodology

According to a study published in Nature, the system utilises a moiré pattern formed when two graphene layers are misaligned with a small rotational angle. This pattern alters the way electrons move, slowing them down and introducing unique behaviours. Electrons in this twisted configuration exhibit vortex-like motion, revolutionising the understanding of graphene's electrical properties.
Prof. Joshua Folk, associated with UBC's Physics and Astronomy Department and the Blusson Quantum Matter Institute, 
explained to phys.org that the geometric interference effect enables the electrons to freeze into an ordered array while maintaining a synchronised rotational motion. This unique behaviour allows electric current to flow along the edges of the sample while the interior remains non-conductive.

Key Observations and Implications

As per reports, Ruiheng Su, an undergraduate researcher at UBC, observed this phenomenon during experiments on a twisted graphene sample prepared by Dr. Dacen Waters from the University of Washington. The locked yet rotating electron array displayed a paradoxical combination of immobility and conductivity, a property attributed to topology.

Prof. Matthew Yankowitz from the University of Washington highlighted to phs.org, that the edge currents are determined by fundamental constants, remaining unaffected by external disruptions. Such resilience stems from the topology of the system, likened to a Möbius strip where deformation does not alter the intrinsic properties.

Applications in Quantum Information

The discovery is expected to open pathways for advancements in quantum information systems. Coupling topological electronic crystals with superconductivity could enable the creation of robust qubits, paving the way for topological quantum computing. Researchers anticipate that this development will significantly enhance the field of quantum technologies.

Groundbreaking Graphene Discovery Opens Path to Quantum Computing with Topological States | Technology News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.

Henry A. Kissinger.

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