Baltic
Dry Index. 778 -46
Brent Crude 77.87
Spot Gold 2753 US 2 Year Yield 4.27 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 36.402 trillion!
The superpowers often behave like two heavily armed blind men feeling their way around a room, each believing himself in mortal peril from the other, whom he assumes to have perfect vision. Each side should know that frequently uncertainty, compromise, and incoherence are the essence of policymaking. Yet each tends to ascribe to the other a consistency, foresight, and coherence that its own experience belies. Of course, over time, even two armed blind men can do enormous damage to each other, not to speak of the room.
Henry A. Kissinger.
Trump mania week two. Will the Fed kowtow to Trump and lower their key interest rate?
With the AI bubble bust, it may not matter much.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher as investors
parse China PMI and industrial profits data
Updated Mon, Jan 27 2025 12:45 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher
Monday, as investors assessed China’s manufacturing and industrial profit data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.68%,
while the Topix added 0.39%. Shares of Japan’s chip-related companies dropped
as Chinese
AI startup DeepSeek’s free open-source large-language model threatens
U.S. AI dominance. Advantest fell 8.5%, while Tokyo Electron slipped 4.72%.
Renesas Electronics fell 1.33%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.88%,
while the mainland CSI 300 was flat.
China’s factory activity growth in January
unexpectedly contracted, with the official purchasing managers’ index for January coming
in at 49.1 versus Reuters’ estimates of 50.1. In December, China’s industrial
profits jumped 11% from a year earlier.
Australian, Taiwan and South Korean
markets were closed for holidays.
China on Sunday introduced new initiatives to encourage the growth of index
investment products in its latest attempt to support its struggling stock
market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to
actively support the growth of equity and bond ETFs, amongst other measures.
The move follows CSRC’s
measures last Thursday to encourage large state-owned mutual funds and
insurers to purchase more shares.
Hong Kong is also expected to report trade
data for December.
Last
Friday in the U.S., the three major averages snapped a four-day
winning streak. The S&P
500 closed lower after hitting new records on Friday, as investors
took some profit to end a solid week centered on President Donald Trump’s return to the
White House.
The benchmark index shed 0.3% to 6,101.24,
reversing course after hitting a fresh intraday record earlier in the session.
The Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.5% to 19,954.30. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average dropped 140.82 points, or 0.3%, to 44,424.25.
Excitement toward Trump’s pro-business
policies has largely pushed risk assets higher last week as investors focused
on his inauguration. All three major averages posted their second straight
positive week, signaling that the bull market is back in full force after
December’s pullback.
Asia
markets live update: China PMI, China industrial profit
European markets set to start the new trading week
on a somber note
Updated Mon, Jan 27 2025 12:45 AM EST
European markets are expected to start the
new trading week in negative territory on Monday, with investors in the region
gearing up for a busy period of earnings and the European Central Bank’s latest
interest rate decision.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 7 points lower at 8,488, Germany’s DAX down 68 points at
21,320, France’s CAC down
36 points at 7,893 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 173 points at
36,242, according to data from IG.
Earnings come from Ryanair on Monday and data
releases include Germany’s Ifo business climate survey.
There will be more earnings releases
throughout the week, with LVMH, Shell, ASML, Roche, Deutsche Bank and Nokia among
the companies reporting this week.
On Thursday, the euro zone and core
European economies France and Germany report their latest growth data, and the
European Central Bank will be closely watched as it announces its latest
monetary policy decision.
Overnight in the Asia-Pacific
region, Japan
and Hong Kong markets traded mostly higher as investors assessed
China’s manufacturing and industrial profit data.
U.S. stock futures fell early Monday as
investors look ahead to a major earnings week, with four out of seven companies
in the “Magnificent Seven’” set to post quarterly earnings: Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Tesla each report on
Wednesday, and Apple will
release results on Thursday.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
The Week Ahead
Jan. 26, 2025 6:30 AM ET
Market participants better buckle up, for
Wall Street is in store for an incredibly busy week.
Monetary policy is back in the spotlight, with the Federal Reserve's first
interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. Following three straight
meetings to close out 2024 where the central bank delivered interest rate cuts,
economic data since has recalibrated traders' expectations. The Fed is widely
expected to take no action this time.
The earnings season turns into a deluge. Most notably, four of the Magnificent
Seven companies are scheduled to report: Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook-parent
Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday,
followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday.
Other major names that will be reporting include Boeing (BA), Starbucks (SBUX), IBM (IBM), Visa (V), Caterpillar (CAT), and Intel (INTC).
The economic calendar will be pretty packed as well. Investors will receive an
update on U.S. gross domestic product growth, along with a reading on the Fed's
favorite inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
price index.
The Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
In other news, fueling the BRICS Alliance?
Denmark in 'crisis mode' and 'utterly freaked out'
after Trump vows 'we'll get Greenland'
26 January 2025
The Danish government is reported to be in
"crisis mode" and "freaking out" after Donald Trump double
downed on his demands to take control of Greenland.
The US President told reporters on board
his presidential plane that he was confident of acquiring the territory.
"I think the people want to be with
us," he said when asked about Greenland.
"I don't really know what claim
Denmark has to it, but it would be a very unfriendly act if they didn't allow
that to happen because it's for the protection of the free world.
"I think Greenland we'll get it because it has to do with the
freedom of the world.
"It has nothing to do with the United
States other than that we're the one that can provide the freedom. They
can't."
His remarks follow a 45-minute telephone
conversation between the US President and Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette
Frederiksen.
According to the Financial Times, several
European officials who were briefed on the call described the conversation as "fiery" and "horrendous."
The sources claimed Trump had been aggressive and confrontational,
following Frederiksen's insistence the autonomous island was not for sale.
"The intent was very clear. They want
it. The Danes are now in crisis mode," a source told the FT.
"The Danes are utterly freaked out by
this," they added.
Greenland is strategically important for the US, as it
lies on the shortest route from North America to Europe.
It also has significant deposits of
important natural resources, such as uranium, iron and rare earth minerals.
Denmark's Defence Minister has admitted
that his country has not done enough to protect Greenland in the past.
Troels Poulsen said the government planned
to rectify the mistake by spending £1.2 billion to beef up security.
The money will finance deploying two new
inspection ships, two drones and two dog sledge patrols.
Denmark
in 'crisis mode' and 'utterly freaked out' after Trump vows 'we'll get
Greenland'
Trudeau threatens tariff war if Trump moves ahead
with duty reforms
24 January 2025
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has
warned the US of the possible consequences if President Donald Trump’s sweeping
tariff reforms are applied to its North American neighbour.
It will be American consumers who will pay
more in the end, with the outgoing Canadian leader vowing to respond in kind,
triggering a tariff war between the two nations.
He said to reporters in Ottawa: “Whether
it be back on January 20th, on February 1st or February 15th as a Valentine’s
Day present, or on April 1st or whenever” Canada will respond with retaliatory
tariffs and “prices for American consumers on just about everything will go
up”.
“We don’t think he wants that.”
Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office
on Thursday that he still plans to place tariffs on Canada and Mexico at 25%
rates starting as soon as February 1.
But, despite the president’s repeated
claim that America does not need Canada, nearly a quarter of the oil consumed
in the US per day comes from Canada.
America’s northern neighbour also has 34
critical minerals and metals that the US is eager for and is also the largest
foreign supplier of steel, aluminium and uranium.
“The US should be working even more with
Canada on our energy, on our critical minerals, on the goods they need to
deliver the economic growth that Donald Trump has promised,” Mr Trudeau said.
“That is our first choice. If they do move
forward on tariffs we are ready to respond in a strong way but in a way… to
figure out how to get them removed as soon as possible.”
Canada is looking at putting retaliatory
tariffs on American orange juice, toilets and some steel products if Mr Trump
follows through with his threat, which was initially planned to come into
effect on day one of his second term of office.
When Mr Trump imposed higher tariffs
during his first term, Canada announced billions of dollars in new duties in
2018 against the US in a tit-for-tat response to new taxes on Canadian steel
and aluminium.
Everything is on the table.” Mr Trudeau
said.
“It would be bad for Canada, but it would
also be bad for American consumers.”
Nearly 2.7 billion US dollars (£2.2
billion) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. Canada is the
top export destination for 36 US states.
Trudeau threatens
tariff war if Trump moves ahead with duty reforms
Brazil to demand explanations on 'degrading
treatment' of deportees
26 January 2025
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs plans to seek explanations from the U.S. government over the
"degrading treatment" of Brazilians on a deportation flight, the
ministry wrote on X on Saturday night.
Last Friday, Brazilian deportees from the
U.S. arrived in Brazil in handcuffs. Upon arrival, some of the passengers also
reported mistreatment during the flight, according to local reports.
The plane, carrying 88 Brazilian
passengers, 16 U.S. security agents, and eight crew members, was originally
scheduled to arrive in Belo Horizonte in the southeastern state of Minas
Gerais. However, it made an unscheduled stop in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas,
due to technical problems, according to Brazil's Justice Ministry.
There, Brazilian officials ordered the
removal of the handcuffs, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva designated a
Brazilian Air Force (FAB) flight to complete their journey, the government said
in a statement Saturday.
The flight was the second this year from
the U.S. carrying undocumented migrants deported back to Brazil and the first
since U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration, according to Brazil's federal
police.
Officials from the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement contacted late
on Saturday for comment did not immediately reply.
Brazil to demand explanations on 'degrading treatment' of deportees
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
four factors which could drive a recession in the UK
26
January 2025
The
UK economy has barely grown in almost a year and remains smaller than in March,
Government borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since 2008, and it
appears “stagflation” may resurface despite Government plans to boost growth
and tackle inflation.
Labour’s
economic plan has got off to a rocky start, with the prospect of official
figures next month showing little
to no growth in its first six months of government.
The
Bank of England has also pencilled in no growth again for the fourth quarter,
following zero expansion in the previous three months.
This
combination of economic factors points to the possibility of a recession
if there is not an uptick in growth.
Poor
GDP growth
The
latest growth figures for the UK economy showed weaker-than-expected growth.
While
November’s data showed a return to growth for the first time since August, the
UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) staggered to a level which offered little
respite to Chancellor Rachel Reeves when the figures were announced earlier
this month.
The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated the UK economy grew in November
by 0.1 per cent after falling by 0.1 per cent in both September and October.
Most
economists were expecting the UK’s GDP to rebound by at least 0.2 per cent in
November.
But
November’s paltry growth means the economy would need to expand by at least 0.1
per cent when December’s figures are released just to avoid contracting overall
in the final quarter of the year.
If
the UK’s economy shrinks over two consecutive quarters, the country would
officially be in a recession.
Surging
government borrowing costs
Growth
figures followed a difficult start to the year for the Chancellor after
government borrowing costs surged and the value of the pound slumped earlier
this month amid worries over the economy and UK debt levels.
While
the markets have since calmed slightly after the sell-off of government bonds
fell back thanks to a surprise fall in inflation, pressure is still mounting on
the Chancellor indicating that she may be on track to miss her fiscal rules.
Higher
yields on government bonds – or gilts – as well as weaker-than-expected growth
and forecasts for rising inflation are seen to be trimming Labour’s already
slim £9.9bn financial headroom and putting Reeves’s stability rules under
threat.
She
is also having to contend with a bigger-than-expected surge in government
borrowing last month to £17.8bn – the highest level for four years according to
the ONS.
More
The four factors
which could drive a recession in the UK
Surge
in robot demand as Budget tax raid makes humans unaffordable
Employers
turn to automation after National Insurance and minimum wage rises
25
January 2025
Rachel
Reeves’s Budget has triggered a surge in demand for robots as the Chancellor’s
Budget tax raid makes employing human
workers too expensive.
Automate
UK, the industry body for industrial robots, said over half of its members had
seen a jump in enquiries since Ms Reeves announced an increase in employers’
National Insurance rates and the minimum wage.
Peter Williamson, the head of the organisation, said industries that had traditionally relied on cheap labour were increasingly turning to robots, and that this was reversing a slump in investment before the Budget.
Sales
of industrial robots, such as those used in car production and food
preparation, fell by 30pc in the first nine months of 2024 in Britain, although
rose in areas such as food and drink, logistics and consumer goods – all of
which rely on low-wage workers.
The
UK is seen as a global laggard in robot investment, in part owing to an
abundance of cheap labour.
However,
Mr Williamson said this had started to change as higher employment costs force
companies to reconsider.
From
April, employers’
National Insurance (NI) contributions will rise from 13.8pc to 15pc, while
the minimum wage will climb to £12.21 an hour. The threshold at which employers
pay NI will also fall from £9,000 to £5,000.
More,
subscription required
Surge in robot demand as Budget tax raid makes humans unaffordable
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Finally, some common sense.
She refused to get COVID vaccine. Kansas court says hospital was wrong
to fire her
January 24, 2025
St. Luke's Health Systems
improperly fired an employee when it didn’t accept a religious exemption
request to the COVID-19 vaccine, according to the Court of Appeal of the State of Kansas.
The hospital denied a
request from Sheryl Glean in November 2021, saying she expressed a concern for
physical harm from the vaccine rather than a “sincerely held religious belief.”
In her request, Glean states that her religious beliefs include that her body
is “holy” and that she consulted with her pastor and family members regarding
vaccination.
“I’ve talk (sic) to my
Pastor from my church and other family members about my decision refusing to
get the vaccine and I did my own research regarding Covid vaccine and they help
me with my decisions,” Glean wrote in an online exemption request to St Lukes.
Glean worked at St.
Luke's South Hospital, which is in Overland Park.
St. Luke's argued that Glean’s
request focuses on concern about bodily harm and not religious belief. The
Kansas Department of Labor sided with Glean, saying that Glean’s termination
was punitive action for failing to comply with vaccination request.
The Johnson County
District Court, however, ruled in St. Luke’s favor when it reviewed the
complaint. On Friday, the Appeals Court of Kansas ruled that the district court
improperly interpreted a 2021 law governing requirements and exemptions for
employers’ COVID-19 policies.
Interpreting vaccine exemption law
The law says employers
must accept an exemtion request if it would endanger an employee’s life or the
life of someone who lives with them, which would require confirmation by a
health care professional, or if it violates “sincerely held religious beliefs
of the employee, as evidence by an accompanying written statement signed by the
employee.”
The appeals court said
St. Luke’s improperly interpreted this law to mean it could “scrutinize an
employee's statement to determine whether the employee's invocation of the
religious exemption was religiously based.”
“The statute does not
require the employee to articulate a basis for their sincerely held religious
beliefs, nor does it require the employee to provide written evidence of those
religious beliefs, as the district court held Glean was required to do. It only
requires the employee to explain in a written statement that complying with a
COVID-19 vaccine mandate would violate their sincerely held religious beliefs,
which Glean did,” the appeals court wrote in its decision.
Further, the court found
a scriptural basis for Glean's belief of the holiness of the body in the Bible,
which calls bodies "temples of the holy spirit" in Corinthians 6:19.
The law allows the state
to take civil action against St. Lukes, charging it up to $50,000 per violation
if it’s found St. Luke’s knowlingly violated the bills provisions, that it
displayed bad faith in interpreting the law, whether it’s corrected the violation,
if it has been fined before and “any other mitigating or aggravating factor.”
The law would stop any
civil action if an employer reinstates an employee with back pay from the date
of the complaint to the employee’s reinstatement.
She refused to get COVID vaccine. Kansas court says hospital was wrong to
fire her
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Groundbreaking
Graphene Discovery Opens Path to Quantum Computing with Topological States
Scientists
from UBC and other institutions discovered topological quantum states in
graphene, unlocking new possibilities for quantum computing.
Written
by Gadgets 360 Staff |
Updated: 24 January 2025 21:51 IST
A
groundbreaking discovery in graphene research has unveiled a new class of
quantum states in a precisely engineered structure. Scientists from the
University of British Columbia (UBC), the University of Washington, and Johns
Hopkins University identified topological electronic crystals in a twisted
bilayer–trilayer graphene system. The structure was created by stacking
two-dimensional graphene layers with a slight rotational twist, leading to
transformative changes in electronic properties.
Discovery
and Methodology
According
to a study published in
Nature, the system utilises a moiré pattern formed when two graphene layers are
misaligned with a small rotational angle. This pattern alters the way electrons
move, slowing them down and introducing unique behaviours. Electrons in this
twisted configuration exhibit vortex-like motion, revolutionising the
understanding of graphene's electrical properties.
Prof. Joshua Folk, associated with UBC's Physics and Astronomy Department and
the Blusson Quantum Matter Institute, explained to phys.org that
the geometric interference effect enables the electrons to freeze into an
ordered array while maintaining a synchronised rotational motion. This unique
behaviour allows electric current to flow along the edges of the sample while
the interior remains non-conductive.
Key
Observations and Implications
As per
reports, Ruiheng Su, an undergraduate researcher at UBC, observed this
phenomenon during experiments on a twisted graphene sample prepared by Dr.
Dacen Waters from the University of Washington. The locked yet rotating
electron array displayed a paradoxical combination of immobility and
conductivity, a property attributed to topology.
Prof.
Matthew Yankowitz from the University of Washington highlighted to phs.org,
that the edge currents are determined by fundamental constants, remaining
unaffected by external disruptions. Such resilience stems from the topology of
the system, likened to a Möbius strip where deformation does not alter the
intrinsic properties.
Applications
in Quantum Information
The
discovery is expected to open pathways for advancements in quantum information
systems. Coupling topological electronic crystals with superconductivity could
enable the creation of robust qubits, paving the way for topological quantum computing.
Researchers anticipate that this development will significantly enhance the
field of quantum technologies.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
Henry A. Kissinger.
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