Saturday, 25 January 2025

Special Update 25/01/2025 Trump Week One. A Busy Start.

Baltic Dry Index. 778 -46              Brent Crude 78.80

Spot Gold 2771                  U S 2 Year Yield 4.27 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 36.394 trillion.

Show me someone without an ego, and I'll show you a loser - having a healthy ego, or high opinion of yourself, is a real positive in life!

Donald Trump.

The end of week one of Trump 2.0. For Trump mania, a busy, somewhat chaotic start.

Will the Fed respond next week to Trump’s order request to cut US interest rates? Will the Powell Fed cave in to President Trump?

What if the Powell Fed leave their key interest rate unchanged?

We are about to find out next week.

S&P 500 slides on Friday as rally pauses, but stocks notch back-to-back weekly gains

Updated Fri, Jan 24 2025 4:44 PM EST

The S&P 500 closed lower after hitting new records on Friday, as investors took some profit to end a solid week centered on President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

The benchmark index shed 0.3% to 6,101.24, reversing course after hitting a fresh intraday record earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5% to 19,954.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 140.82 points, or 0.3%, to 44,424.25. Friday’s losses snapped a four-day winning streak for the three major indexes.

Some megacap tech stocks that helped drive the market to all-time highs pulled back in the session, putting downward pressure on equities. Nvidia slid more than 3%, while Tesla fell more than 1%.

Despite Friday’s retreat, excitement toward Trump’s pro-business policies has largely pushed risk assets higher this week as investors focused on his inauguration. Traders were also relieved that there have only been threats on the tariff front from Trump — instead of formal action — during his first few days in the White House.

All three major averages posted their second straight positive week, signaling that the bull market is back in full force after December’s pullback. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose around 1.7% this week, while the Dow climbed 2.2%. In addition to hitting fresh intraday records this week, the S&P 500 also notched a new all-time closing high on Thursday.

Notably, Trump said on Thursday that he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately” when addressing world leaders in Davos, Switzerland. The president also said he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to lower the price of oil.

“So far, markets have reacted to every statement made by the President, even those that should not have any impact,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. “This shows that traders have not yet settled into their pace.”

Beyond politics, market participants kept an eye on corporate news and earnings reports. Novo Nordisk rallied more than 8% following positive early-stage results for a weight loss drug. Texas Instruments, on the other hand, slid more than 7% on weak earnings guidance.

This action comes ahead of a busy week, when attention will turn to big technology earnings and the Federal Reserve meeting. Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 99% chance that the central bank leaves interest rates unchanged, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool.

Stock market news for Jan. 24, 2025

Europe markets close slightly lower but notch weekly gain; Burberry up 10% after quarterly report

Updated Fri, Jan 24 2025 12:04 PM EST

European equity markets slipped into the red in late deals Friday despite a largely positive week for global stocks.

France’s CAC 40 index held onto gains of 0.44%, but Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.08% and 0.73% respectively.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed with a 0.05% loss. However, the regional gauge still gained more than 1% this week, buoyed by solid earnings and optimism around U.S. growth after President Donald Trump was sworn-in to the White House.

Among the stocks in decline was telecommunications equipment maker Ericsson, which fell more than 12% after the company missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Among the biggest gainers on Friday was Burberry, which jumped 10% on a shallower-than-expected dip in sales in the fiscal third quarter. Other luxury stocks including MonclerSwatch and Christian Dior were also trading higher.

Novo Nordisk shares also rose by 7% after the company said a new clinical trial result showed that one of its treatments led to a weight loss of 22% among people living with obesity.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high Friday following a record close in the previous trading session, as President Trump called for lower interest rates and cheaper oil prices.

Speaking via video to an assembly of global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the new president in a wide-ranging policy speech did not mention the Federal Reserve by name but made clear he would seek lower rates.

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” Trump said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.”

The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% — the highest since 2008 and in line with economists’ expectations. Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 155.18 against the dollar.

Investors are also likely to be looking ahead to the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday with no change expected to interest rates. Elsewhere in China, equity markets will be closed from Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday.

European markets open to close: earnings, data and news

In other news.

Migrants in shackles led on to US military plane - as Mexico refuses to accept deportation flight

24 January 2025

US military aircraft have started flying detained migrants out of America on the orders of Donald Trump, as Mexico refused a request from his administration to allow a deportation plane to land in the country.

It comes as the White House released images of men whose hands and ankles were shackled being led on to a plane.

Mr Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt posted the photos on X and declared: "Deportation flights have begun."

She said Mr Trump was "sending a strong and clear message to the entire world: if you illegally enter the United States of America, you will face severe consequences".

Two US military aircraft, each carrying around 80 migrants, flew from America to Guatemala on Friday.

One C-17 reportedly took off from Biggs Army Air Field in Texas, while another C-17 departed from Tucson in Arizona.

But a plan to have another C-17 transport aircraft land in Mexico foundered after the country denied permission.

It was unclear why permission to land was denied.

Mexico's foreign ministry said the country had a "very great relationship" with the US and cooperated on issues such as immigration.

'Putting an end to illegal migration'

It was the first time in recent memory that American military aircraft were being used to fly migrants out of the US, according to an official.

Such planes have in the past been used to relocate people from one country to another, including in 2021 during the US's withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"Guatemala and the United States are committed to putting an end to illegal migration and strengthening border security. Starting with two flights today," the US State Department said.

On Instagram, Guatemalan vice president Karin Herrera's office posted a video of a military plane landing in Guatemala.

A caption said: "The [Guatemalan government] remains committed to protecting the integrity of migrants. The vice presidency will continue to verify that the reception of the returnees is in a dignified and safe manner."

Some 79 Guatemalans returned, all of whom were adults, including 31 women and 48 men, the Guatemalan Migration Institute wrote.

The Pentagon has said the US military would provide flights for the deportations of more than 5,000 immigrants held by US authorities in El Paso, Texas, and San Diego, California.

More

Migrants in shackles led on to US military plane - as Mexico refuses to accept deportation flight

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Firms slash jobs and hike prices as Reeves’ Budget fallout continues

Friday 24 January 2025 10:18 am  |  Updated:  Friday 24 January 2025 10:28 am

UK businesses hiked prices and cut staff in January, a new survey shows, as firms continued to struggle in the wake of October’s Budget.

The latest ‘flash’ purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which reflects business activity in the private sector, showed employment levels decreasing for the fourth month in a row.

“Many firms suggested that the forthcoming hike in employers’ National Insurance had resulted in cutbacks to recruitment plans, while others cited the impact of a post-Budget slump in business confidence,” the survey said.

Excluding the pandemic, the rate of job cutting in the past two months has been the highest since the financial crisis, it noted.

Firms also battled a “sharp and accelerated increase” in the cost burden, which increased at the fastest pace in one-and-a-half years on the back of higher salary costs and energy prices.

This forced firms to pass on higher costs to consumers, with output price inflation rising at its fastest pace since July 2023.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warned that inflationary pressures had “reignited”, creating problems for the Bank of England.

Economists expect the headline rate of inflation to pick up to over three per cent by the spring, but the survey also suggests that services inflation could pick back up again later in the year.

Despite the problems facing businesses, output growth picked up slightly compared to December thanks to “modest growth” in the UK’s all-important services sector.

The overall index increased to 50.9, up from 50.4 the previous month and slightly ahead of economists’ expectations.

Nevertheless, the reading still only indicated a slight expansion and was comfortably below the long-run average of 53.6. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction.

“The improvement does little to move the dial on a speedometer which points to an economy that it broadly flatlining,” Williamson said.

The economy has been broadly stagnant since the general election last summer. Analysts at Capital Economics said the survey was consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of 2025.

More

Firms slash jobs and hike prices as Budget fallout continues

UK economy: ‘Consumers see dark days ahead’

Friday 24 January 2025 6:00 am  

Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in over a year, a new survey shows, fuelled by worsening expectations for the UK economy in 2025.

GfK’s overall consumer confidence index fell to -22, which was down five points on December and put confidence at its lowest level since the end of 2023.

The fall was driven largely by consumers’ worsening outlook on the UK economy for the next year, which fell by eight points to -34.

Household views about their personal financial situation also deteriorated, falling three points to -2.

“New Year is traditionally a time for change, but looking at these figures, consumers don’t think things are changing for the better,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK.

“These figures underline that consumers are losing confidence in the UK’s economic prospects.”

The survey’s savings index, which reflects the likelihood that consumers will save rather than spend disposable income, climbed by nine points to hit 30.

Although it is not included in the overall confidence index, Bellamy said it was “unwelcome” because it suggests that “people see dark days ahead”.

The UK has seen a relatively elevated savings rate since the pandemic and many economists expect consumers to dip into their savings as the year progresses, which would help fuel higher consumer spending.

But the survey suggests there’s a danger consumers will continue squirrelling funds away, which would weigh on growth.

GfK’s release comes just a day after a similar report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that nearly half of consumers expect the economy to deteriorate over the next quarter.

The surveys will be a worrying sign for the government as it seeks to reinvigorate an economy that has stuttered since last summer’s general election.

Growth underwhelmed in November, expanding just 0.1 per cent having contracted marginally in both of the previous two months.

Retail sales contracted unexpectedly last month too, while the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to its lowest level in over a year.

Many commentators have argued that the Budget, which included tax hikes worth £40bn, has depressed economic activity.

While consensus among economists is for growth to accelerate to 1.2 per cent across this year, this was a slight downgrade on the 1.3 per cent pencilled in by analysts in December.

UK economy: 'Consumers see dark days ahead'

UK to soften tax rules for wealthy foreigners after millionaire exodus, Rachel Reeves says

Published Fri, Jan 24 202 53:58 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 24 2025 8:02 AM EST

The U.K. will soften some planned changes to its controversial non-dom tax rule following concerns of a millionaire exodus, the Treasury has confirmed.

Britain’s 200-year-old non-dom regime permits people living in the U.K., but who are domiciled elsewhere for tax purposes, to avoid paying levies on income and capital gains earnings overseas for up to 15 years. The regime has long courted controversy, leading U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves in her October budget to confirm that it would be abolished from April 2025, and that all long-term residents would be subject to inheritance tax (IHT) on their worldwide assets, including those held in trust.

Speaking at a fringe event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Reeves said the government would soon put forward an amendment to the country’s Finance Bill, increasing the generosity of a rule which allows non-doms to bring money to the UK without paying significant taxes. 

“We have been listening to the concerns that have been raised by the non-dom community,” Reeves told The Wall Street Journal’s Emma Tucker when asked about recent departures of the ultra-wealthy.

“In the finance bill, we will be tabling an amendment which makes more generous the temporary repatriation facility, which enables non-doms to bring money into the UK without paying significant taxes,” she added.

Reeves on Thursday also sought to reassure wealthy overseas investors that the changes would not affect double-taxation agreements held between the U.K. and other countries.

“There’s been some concerns from countries that have double taxation conventions with the U.K., including India, that they would be drawn in to be paying inheritance tax. That’s not the case. We’re not going to be changing those double taxation conventions,” she said.

In a statement to CNBC confirming the plans, a Treasury spokesperson said the tweaks were designed to motivate non-doms “to bring their funds to the U.K., encouraging them to spend and invest this money here.”

“While we do not expect these changes to impact the £33.8 billion of tax revenue that the OBR forecast to raise over five years, they reflect our continued engagement with stakeholders to make sure the reforms announced at Budget operate as intended,” the statement added.

More

UK to soften tax rules for wealthy foreigners after millionaire exodus, Rachel Reeves says

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Some of 19 deaths during COVID outbreak at aged care centre were avoidable: inquest

24 January 2025

Poor leadership, insufficient communication and staff shortages all bubbled to the surface as a deadly wave of COVID-19 swept through an aged-care home, a coroner has found.

Inquest findings, delivered today, declared some of the 19 deaths during the 2020 outbreak at Sydney's Newmarch House could have been avoided had proper testing for the virus been implemented.

A decision not to transfer some residents to hospital could have improved the level of care they received, including their access to enough oxygen and fluids, Magistrate Derek Lee found.

Instead, the Anglicare-run facility opted to treat sick residents on-site under the Hospital in the Home program.

Nicole Fahey said family members like her did not want to see what occurred swept under the rug.

This program was not viable and was inconsistent with infectious diseases such as COVID-19, Lee said.

More personalised assessments should have been made with individual residents to determine where they were treated, he found.

Staff shortages compounded problems including a confused leadership structure and insufficient communications with family members who wanted to know what was happening in the facility, he said.

However, the coroner did not make any recommendations, noting Anglicare had already made improvements to its policies and procedures after the outbreak.

Less than two months after Newmarch entered lockdown in late March 2020, 37 residents had contracted the virus.

Speaking to Australian Associated Press before the findings were delivered, Nicole Fahey - whose grandmother Ann died in the outbreak - said family members like her did not want to see what occurred simply swept under the rug.

"I'm hoping the findings that are handed down are of substance enough for the families to feel like, moving forward, what occurred won't happen again," she said.

At the outset of the inquest, which began in 2022, counsel assisting Simon Buchen SC said one question to be answered was whether residents and their relatives had consented to be part of the Hospital in the Home program.

Buchen also described preparations by the Anglicare-run home before the outbreak as insufficient for what ultimately occurred.

More

Some of 19 deaths during COVID outbreak at aged care centre were avoidable: inquest

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

How Long Will A Home Battery Last? Should You Even Buy One?

A home battery backup system can keep your devices powered during an outage. But how long does one last and is it worth the investment? Find out here.

Article updated on January 23, 2025 at 11:00 PM PST

Batteries are a convenient tool to store energy and power your home during an outage, but unfortunately they do have a limited life span. You'll have noticed that with your smartphone, the battery's charge diminishes over time and you have worse battery life over time, which means plugging in your phone more often.

This behavior isn't exclusive to just your smartphone battery. Pretty much all systems will see their battery capacity reduce over time, and eventually need replacement. The same goes for home batteries, which are giant lithium-ion batteries that act as a backup power source for your home. They also have a limited lifespan, and aren't immune to the inevitable demise their smaller counterparts face.

---- So how long will your home battery last? What can you do to extend its lifespan? Here's some expert advice on how to get the most out of your home battery.

How long does a home battery last?

The most common types of home batteries, typically made of some sort of lithium-ion chemistry, degrade over time just like any other battery. Each time you charge and discharge your battery, it loses some of its capacity to hold a charge. It's so inconsequential that you won't notice it at first. After a few years, you might start to notice that your battery can't hold a charge quite like it used to. 

Your home battery is not going to live forever, but it might last longer than you think. "Anticipate it to last about 15 years," McDonald said. 

Look closely at the warranty

Almost all home batteries on the market come with a 10-year warranty. That doesn't necessarily mean your battery will be totally dead in 10 years. The thing you really want to pay attention to on your battery's warranty is its cycle life or expected energy throughput. Both of these give you a good indicator of how long your battery will really last, according to the manufacturer. 

Every time you drain and recharge your battery it completes a "cycle." On your warranty, the manufacturer guarantees your battery will be able to deliver up to a certain amount of cycles while under warranty. The expected life for home batteries is usually between 6,000 to 8,000 cycles. 

Similarly, you might see an expected energy "throughput" listed somewhere on your warranty. This is another way the manufacturer estimates your battery's lifespan. Your battery's throughput, usually measured in megawatt-hours, is the total amount of energy that your battery should deliver to your home during its lifetime while still under warranty. 

Since your battery's maximum energy storage capacity decreases over time, most manufacturers will also include some form of end-of-warranty capacity guarantee, promising that your battery will still be able to retain up to a certain amount of its original maximum capacity by the time your warranty expires. Most manufacturers will guarantee up to at least a 70% capacity retention rate. You can still use your battery after your warranty period is up -- possibly for another five years, even. Just don't expect the battery's performance to be as good as it was when you first had it installed.

More

How Long Will A Home Battery Last? Should You Even Buy One? - CNET

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Another largely forgotten maestro, Franz von Suppé. Approx. 10 minutes.  Chicago’s Youth Philharmonic Orchestra having fun.

SUPPE: Poet and Peasant Overture | CYSO's Philharmonic Orchestra

SUPPE: Poet and Peasant Overture | CYSO's Philharmonic Orchestra - YouTube

This weekend’s chess diversion  Approx 13 minutes.

Welcome To The Big League || Abdusattorov vs Mendonca || Tata Steel (2025)

Welcome To The Big League || Abdusattorov vs Mendonca || Tata Steel (2025) - YouTube

This weekend’s final diversion  Approx 5 minutes.

Jeep 4xe Battery Fires: Are Dealerships Ready?

Jeep 4xe Battery Fires: Are Dealerships Ready?

I'm not a big believer in man-made climate change.

Donald Trump.


No comments:

Post a Comment