Tuesday, 21 January 2025

Trump 2.0. Lawfare 2.0 Starts. Stocks, A One Way Street?

Baltic Dry Index. 957 -30           Brent Crude 79.99

Spot Gold 2726                 US 2 Year Yield 4.27  Fri.  

US Federal Debt. 36.377 trillion!

America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.

Henry A. Kissinger.

In the global stock casinos, the Trump one way street is back.

But is it?  What if inflation is back?  What if the US debt ceiling isn’t raised?

What if tariffs and illegal immigrant deportations drag on the US economy.

What if the Biden family pardons have damaged America’s image in the rest of the world?  Did Biden pardon himself? Suppose after all it turns out he really did steal that election?

But these are not issues for today, but issues for tomorrow.

For today, all hail Caesar Trump President Trump.

Asia-Pacific markets rise as investors await clarity on President Donald Trump’s policies

Updated Tue, Jan 21 2025 11:29 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, as investors awaited greater clarity on policies of U.S. President Donald Trump following his inauguration.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.68%.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 0.15%, while the Topix was flat in choppy trade.

South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.17%, while the Kosdaq declined 0.32%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.12%. Mainland China’s CSI300 Index reversed losses to gain 0.39%.

Several central banks in Asia will be convening later this week. Malaysia’s central bank is expected to keep its policy rate steady at 3% on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan is holding its next policy meeting from Jan. 23 to Jan 24 — BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled intentions to hike rates. Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore will be meeting on Friday.

Over in the U.S. markets were closed due to the Martin Luther King Jr. public holiday.

U.S. stock futures were higher after Trump’s swearing in and his promise of a new “golden age” for the U.S. He also issued a slew of executive orders, which notably did not include tariffs.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.6%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 221 points, or 0.5%.

Asia markets live updates: Trump inauguration, South Korea PPI

European stocks head for slightly higher open as markets assess the impact of Trump 2.0

Published Tue, Jan 21 2025 12:42 AM EST

LONDON — European stocks are expected to open slightly higher Tuesday as traders digest the first executive orders that newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump signed on Monday.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 10 points higher at 8,531, Germany’s DAX up 4 points at 21,004, France’s CAC 40 7 points higher at 7,740 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 44 points at 36,326, according to data from IG.

Global investors will be assessing the potential impact of Trump’s second term in office following his inauguration as the 47th president of the U.S. on Monday. After the ceremony, Trump signed some of his first executive orders before an audience of 20,000 supporters at the Capital One Arena in Washington.

Trump issued “full pardons” to approximately 1,500 people who were charged in relation to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He also signed an executive order which effectively paused the enforcement of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S.

Trump also said Monday that tariffs of 25% could be levied against Mexico and Canada as soon as early February.

In other news, European market investors will be keeping an eye on the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. The annual event, which attracts heads of government and business leaders from around the world, steps up a gear on Tuesday.

While some are skipping Davos — the leaders of China, India and a number of key European leaders are absent this year — Trump is due to address participants via videolink on Thursday.

On Tuesday, there are a number of keynote speeches, with Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, set to speak at 10:50 a.m. Davos time (9:50 a.m. London time). Shortly after, Ding Xuexiang, the vice premier of China, will give a keynote speech at 11:20 a.m.

Follow CNBC’s WEF live blog here

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will address the forum at 2 p.m. local time and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will speak at 2:30 p.m. The forum will be a crucial platform for the president to present Ukraine’s case ahead of likely pressure from Trump to reach a ceasefire with Russia to end the war.

Later in the afternoon, Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa, will give a keynote at 3:45 p.m. Davos time.

There are no major earnings releases due in Europe Tuesday. Data releases include the U.K. unemployment rate for November and the ZEW indicator of European economic sentiment data.

European markets assess the impact of Trump 2.0, Davos in focus

The FTSE 100 has hit another new high. Next stop 9,000?

Monday 20 January 2025 3:42 pm

The FTSE 100 has hit another all-time high today of 8,548.59, the second time in two trading days the blue-chip index has hit a record.

For the first time, the FTSE 100 passed the 8,500 barrier last week, off the back of hopes that the Bank of England might cut interest rates more aggressively than expected.

So far this year, the index has returned 4.2 per cent. In comparison, the S&P 500 has added 1.9 per cent.

Now, City analysts are wondering if this could be the start of something bigger for the index and if it could hit the key 9,000 level.

“The 9,000 level represents a rise of approximately six per cent from current levels, so it is by no means unfeasible that the FTSE 100 could reach this in the coming months,” said Jonathan Unwin, UK head of portfolio management at Mirabaud Wealth Management.

The FTSE 100 broke the 8,000-point barrier for the first time in history in February 2023 before quickly falling.

Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said he expected the 9,000 barrier to be crossed during 2025 but questioned whether it would manage to stay that high until the end of the year, as Trump’s policies start to set into the US market.

He added that the FTSE 100 is already close to its end-of-year prediction of 8,700.

When he made his prediction (8 November), the index was at 8,173, and Jackson said it “doesn’t take a lot to imagine it going above 9,000 at some stage,” especially with UK valuations comparably cheap to the rest of the world.

Adam Vettese, market analyst at Etoro, added that the FTSE 100’s recent rise felt more like “a platform to build on as opposed to a peak before the start of a retreat”.

The level of “9,000 is still some distance away but with key resistance having just been broken, a run-up to that historic milestone would not be out of the question,” he said.

“When will it go above 10,000? I suspect that bigger target may have to wait until 2026,” added Jackson.

More

The FTSE 100 has hit another new high. Next stop 9,000?

In other news, in what will be seen in most of the world as covering up American corruption.

Biden in Final Hours Pardons Relatives and Others to Thwart Trump Reprisals

President Biden used his executive clemency power to protect people targeted by Donald J. Trump, including five members of his family as well as Liz Cheney, Anthony S. Fauci and Mark A. Milley.

Jan. 20, 2025

President Biden granted a wave of pre-emptive pardons in his final hours in office on Monday to guard members of his own family and other high-profile figures from a promised campaign of “retribution” by his incoming successor, Donald J. Trump.

In an extraordinary effort by an outgoing president to derail political prosecutions by an incoming president, Mr. Biden pardoned five members of his family, including his brothers James B. Biden and Francis W. Biden, as well as others targeted by Mr. Trump like Gen. Mark A. MilleyDr. Anthony S. Fauci and former Representative Liz Cheney.

“I believe in the rule of law, and I am optimistic that the strength of our legal institutions will ultimately prevail over politics,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. “But these are exceptional circumstances, and I cannot in good conscience do nothing. Baseless and politically motivated investigations wreak havoc on the lives, safety and financial security of targeted individuals and their families.

“Even when individuals have done nothing wrong — and in fact have done the right thing — and will ultimately be exonerated, the mere fact of being investigated or prosecuted can irreparably damage reputations and finances,” he added.

In addition to his brothers, Mr. Biden pardoned his sister, Valerie Biden Owens, and her husband, John T. Owens, as well as Sara Jones Biden, the wife of James Biden. He pardoned all the members of the bipartisan House committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters, as well as their staff and the police officers who testified during their inquiry.

In issuing the pre-emptive pardons, Mr. Biden effectively turned the president’s constitutional power of forgiveness into a protective shield against what he maintained would be politically motivated vengeance. No other president has employed executive clemency in such a broad and overt way to thwart a successor he believes would abuse his power, and no other president, not even Mr. Trump, has pardoned so many members of his own family.

The White House announced the family pardons with less than 20 minutes left in Mr. Biden’s presidency, after he had already walked into the Capitol Rotunda to witness the swearing-in of Mr. Trump.

More

Biden in Final Hours Pardons Relatives and Others to Thwart Trump Reprisals - The New York Times

News site focused on Elon Musk to launch

January 20, 2025 10:01 AM ET

News organizations are grappling with how to cover the overwhelming pace of news expected from the return to power of President-elect Donald Trump later today. The lawyer and investigative journalist Judd Legum, founder of the liberal site Popular Information, thinks he has the answer: focus like a laser on Elon Musk, the richest man in the world.

Legum says there will be two issues a week of his publication on Substack, to be called "Musk Watch"; one issue will be dedicated to a deep dive or scoops about Elon Musk, and a second aggregating the reporting of others to capture Musk's actions and activities.

He's hired Caleb Ecarma, formerly a political reporter for Vanity Fair, and hopes to hire more to cover Musk, the chief of SpaceX and Tesla, owner of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), and now the head of DOGE, a new task force charged with advising Trump on how to radically reorder the federal government.

"I think that he has an unprecedented combination of wealth, of influence across major industries, and of political influence," Legum tells NPR. "We really don't know what the implications of one person having so much influence over a breadth of different areas will be."

Legum says there should be plenty to write about.

"He is not just a charlatan who says wild things and doesn't follow through," Legum says. "He has accomplished a lot."

Legum says he'll run Musk Watch on the same principle as Popular Information, embracing "adversarial journalism." The site has made national news on some of its stories, including the revelation that a man whose life sentence commuted by Trump in his first term was subsequently convicted of domestic violence. Legum reported he shared an attorney with Donald Trump Jr.

"It's not neutral," Legum says. "It comes from a progressive perspective, but we're also taking our facts very seriously and making sure we get the story right."

News site focused on Elon Musk to launch : NPR

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Food Prices Are Rising Again

Bird flu and bad weather are helping drive up prices for groceries, making things complicated for families, companies and Trump

Jan. 19, 2025 5:30 am ET

The specter of rising food prices is back.

The cost of groceries in the U.S. increased 1.8% from a year earlier in December, rising at the fastest pace in more than a year, according to Labor Department data released last week. The cost of food overall was 0.3% higher in December, after increasing 0.4% in November.

There isn’t one factor. Bird flu is killing chickens, cutting egg supplies and sending wholesale prices to a record. Extreme heat and dry weather in the world’s coffee-growing regions have sent the cost of brews surging. Chocolate and cereal makers have raised prices for their products, too.

It is a problem for consumers, who are still acclimating to a stretch of bruising inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic. Shoppers are picking up more store-branded groceries and scouring multiple stores for the best deals. Grocery prices in December were roughly 28% higher than they were five years ago, according to the Labor Department.

An uptick in the pace of food inflation presents a challenge for the incoming administration. President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on consumers’ frustration with inflation, though more recently has acknowledged it could be hard to cool rising grocery prices.

Some of the problems underlying food costs, such as disease and bad weather, don’t have quick policy fixes. Trump’s pledge to implement tariffs on goods from Canada, China and Mexico, some of America’s top trading partners, could further roil food-commodity markets.

Heather Bowman, a Pennsylvania marketing director, said she is still shelling out for more expensive eggs, because they are a good source of protein for her family of five. But she has cut back on what she said are less healthy items, including her 8-year-old son’s favorite chips—now $8 for a family-size bag.

“We’re just going to have to try other snacks,” Bowman told her son. She recently opted instead for pretzels on sale.

Eggs are one of the primary drivers of food inflation. The index for eggs was up 37% from a year ago, according to the latest Labor Department figures, and the average retail price of a dozen large eggs increased nearly 14% to $4.15 in December.

The price increase is fueled by the deadliest outbreak of avian flu on record, which first started spreading on U.S. farms in 2022. Egg price surges tend to be seasonal because wild birds—ducks and geese—migrate during the winter, carrying the virus to farms as they travel. To limit the virus’s spread, whole flocks are killed after an infection is confirmed.

Combined with the more limited supply, demand for eggs tends to peak in December as grocery stores and food manufacturers stock up for the holiday baking season. Price increases have helped increase the profits of egg companies, including Cal-Maine, the largest U.S. egg producer, whose stock has doubled over the past year.

Prices were also higher in December at the meat case. Products such as bacon and breakfast sausage rose 2% in price from November. The Agriculture Department said this month that it expects higher pork, beef and chicken prices in 2025 as meatpackers cut back their slaughter rates.

More

Food Prices Are Rising Again - WSJ

III. It’s Baaaack. Inflation Persists at Higher Rates. Transient? Maybe Not.

January 20, 2025

----Here are the CPI inflation rates for the last four months of 2024: September: 2.4%. October: 2.6%. November 2.7%. December (most recent available): 2.9%. That’s a 0.5 percentage point increase in inflation since last August. It’s moving in the wrong direction. Inflation was also 2.9% in July 2024, meaning that there has been no material progress in five months despite some ups and downs along the way. Analysts paid almost no attention to this headline number. They immediately went to “core” CPI (excluding food and fuel), “super-core” CPI (excluding food, fuel and housing), and the producer price index (PPI) all of which showed more moderate increases or actual declines. That’s fine if you don’t eat, drive a car or live in a house. Most people do. CPI is what people actually pay for the things they actually consume. I’ll leave the variations for economists with nothing better to do. The fact is prices for everyday Americans are not only still going up, but they’re also going up at a faster tempo. We’ll see what the Fed does with interest rates at their FOMC meeting on January 29th. They believe that unemployment is “normalizing.” Inflation is not. That could mean no rate cut, just a pause. And that could be very bad news for stocks.

INAUGURATION DAY LINKS! Zuck Sucks Up to Trump… It’s Baaaack (Inflation That Is) … And More! | My Paradigm Press

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

My husband has been left disabled by the Covid vaccine

20 January 2025

Whenever Kate and Jamie Scott's seven-year-old son writes a card for his daddy, it contains the same fervent wish.

'He always says 'I hope you feel better soon, daddy', because he doesn't understand that you can't get better from a brain injury the size of a credit card,' says Kate.

The bewilderment of her eldest boy and his four-year-old brother is 'another layer of heartbreak', as 36-year-old Kate puts it, on top of everything she and her husband have already endured – and they have endured a great deal.

Three years ago in April, Jamie suffered a catastrophic bleed on the brain after being given the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine.

Doctors were convinced it was a death sentence but, astonishingly, the previously fit and athletic then 44-year-old – a keen skier, mountain biker and runner – pulled through. A 'walking miracle', in Kate's words.

He is far from the same man, however. His vision is impaired, he can no longer hold down his high-flying software engineer job, drive a car, or follow complex conversations.

The toll it has taken on the family has required a huge amount of adjustment. To make matters worse, it has been unfolding against a backdrop in which the Scotts – and the dozens of others like them who have lost loved ones or watched them battle grievous consequences following an adverse reaction to the Covid vaccine – feel they have been silenced.

'I have had people stop talking to me and walk away when I describe what happened to Jamie,' Kate says. 'If I said he'd had a bike accident, I think people would always say how sorry they were. But with this, people either question whether it's true or just don't want to talk about it. It's such a taboo subject; our circle of family and friends is much smaller because of it, which has been hard to come to terms with. It's the same for many in our position. We've been made to feel like an uncomfortable truth.'

Equally difficult to navigate, she says, is the Government's compensation scheme (known as the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme, or VDPS), currently limited to a payout of just £120,000 – and even then, only when those affected have gone through a draconian process in which they are judged on whether they meet 'the threshold' for payment, a brutally specific figure of '60 per cent or more disabled'.

The severity of Jamie's condition means that he easily met that criteria – a bittersweet moment for Kate, who says she 'cried and cried' when receiving the news over the phone.

'Because now it's been confirmed in black and white that the vaccine caused his injury, and he's 60 per cent disabled, and that is our 'win'. But it's not a win, is it? That's our life now. And £120,000 doesn't touch the sides of what we have lost in terms of income, and will lose over the decades to come.'

It is one reason that Kate has fought so passionately for the voices of vaccine victims to be heard at the ongoing Covid-19 Inquiry, a desire which was fulfilled last week when, on Wednesday, she gave evidence for half an hour on their behalf.

More

My husband has been left disabled by the Covid vaccine

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

How EV Owners Are Tuning Their Cars To Make Them Faster

January 19, 2025

Electric vehicles often dominate in drag racing. Full power from the word "Go" and the precision of electric motors results in neck-spraining straight-line sprints and heart rate elevating 0-60 mph dashes. When we discuss EV performance, the Tesla Model S Plaid is one of the most notable models in the sporty EV segment. And the new Model 3 Performance isn't far behind, with an affordable price and a 0 to 60 mph time of 2.9 seconds.

Even though it is a ludicrous machine capable of outrunning supercars, what if that performance wasn't enough? Several upgrades can be made to electric vehicles to improve performance.

EVs are now a part of daily life, which means tuners naturally want in on that action. That's why we're exploring this new avenue of car tuning. This article will only focus on technology specifically designed for electric vehicles and that is available to the public.

It should come as no surprise that the aftermarket support for electric vehicles is incomparable to the aftermarket as a whole. While small, enough suppliers and parts manufacturers produce appealing products to improve electric vehicle performance. The easiest modifications that can be made to an electric vehicle to increase performance would be better and larger brakes, upgraded suspension, aerodynamic elements, and better tires. These components would allow for better braking, better body control, better road-holding, and, as a bonus, improved visual appeal.

Brakes

Let's start with brakes. Typically, the solution for better brakes is bigger ones, and carbon ceramic brakes would be best when bigger ones are not feasible. High-performance electric vehicles like the Porsche Taycan Turbo GT rely on large, lightweight carbon ceramic brakes. Still, an aftermarket set of carbon ceramic brakes would come at a hefty cost. Beyond the rotors, brake lines, brake cooling ducts, and high-performance brake pads would be essential components to improve braking performance further.

Suspension

Suspension systems for electric vehicles are easy to acquire, with certain brands and manufacturers catering exclusively to electric vehicles. A notable example is Unplugged Performance, which had previously worked on Joe Rogan's Tesla Model S Plaid. This company offers an array of bolt-on components specifically for Teslas. As far as suspension goes, there is no limit, with the main deciding factor being how much of the vehicle's original suspension an owner would want to be replaced, which can include the control arms, trailing arms, camber arms, coilovers, and bushings.

---- Typically, tuning an electric vehicle's ECU means tuning its electric motor software, adjusting the vehicle power delivery protocols, and adjusting its regenerative braking systems and software. Changing these aspects of an EV's ECU results in improved performance, which could mean better acceleration abilities, higher top speeds, improved energy recovery during regenerative braking, and allows for thermal management system adjustment to maintain optimal operating temperatures for a modified EV setup.

Other aftermarket solutions focus on specific aspects of an electric vehicle's operation. DTE Systems offers a tuning solution called the PedalBox, a tuning system that improves throttle response and changes the characteristics of the accelerator pedal to offer better acceleration. It's important to remember that the easy part is buying the components; the hard part is finding someone capable of tuning these components and electric vehicles without introducing any unwanted risks and issues. Improper tuning could result in an electric vehicle's battery and motor systems being damaged, while at the very least, it would void the vehicle's warranty.

More

How EV Owners Are Tuning Their Cars To Make Them Faster

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been. The public does not fully understand the world into which it is going. Leaders must invoke an alchemy of great vision. Those leaders who do not are ultimately judged failures, even though they may be popular at the moment.

Henry A. Kissinger.


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