Baltic
Dry Index. 1072 +43
Brent Crude 76.20
Spot Gold 2634 US 2 Year Yield 4.28 +0.03
The elderly are useless eaters.
Henry A. Kissinger.
In the stock casinos, a difficult week. On Friday, the latest US employment figures. With the US election over, time to start adjusting the rosy pre-election employment numbers?
In US stock casinos, a closure on Thursday to honour the funeral of former President Carter.
From Tuesday through Friday the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
In Canada, the prospect that the great country can move on from the disaster of Justin Trudeau.
In the UK and Europe, more industrial carnage and governmental havoc.
Just two weeks left of the incompetence of team Biden-Blinken, before the iffy team Trump take power.
An interesting year ahead.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors
assess business activity data from the region
Updated Mon, Jan 6 2025 11:17 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday
as investors assessed business activity figures from several key economies in
the region.
China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index from S&P
Global rose to 52.2 in December — the service sector’s fastest expansion since
May 2024. China’s central bank said over the weekend it would implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025 as it seeks
to boost growth.
Separately, Hong Kong’s PMI declined in
December compared to the month before. December PMI figures for India will also
be released Monday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened higher
after the PMI reading, before falling 0.27%, while mainland China’s CSI 300
also fell marginally.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 1.62%,
leading losses in Asia and dragged by consumer cyclical stocks, while the
broad-based Topix fell 1.23%.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 1.67%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.49% higher.
Political uncertainty continues to grip
the country, with the country’s head of presidential security service reportedly saying over the weekend he could not comply
with efforts to arrest impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol.
A bid to arrest Yoon on grounds of insurrection last Friday failed after
investigators were locked in a stand-off with presidential security officials.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 pared gains
to trade just above the flatline.
On Friday in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 ended their
five-day losing streak as tech stocks rallied.
The broad-based S&P 500 closed 1.26%
higher, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 1.77% to close at 19,621.68. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
0.8%.
Asia markets live:
China services PMI, Nippon Steel
Stock futures are little changed ahead of key jobs
data in a shortened trading week: Live updates
Updated Mon, Jan 6 2025 12:25 AM EST
U.S. equity futures were little changed
Monday morning as investors looked forward to jobs data in another shortened
trading week.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average edged lower by 29 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures added
0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures inched
higher by 0.1%.
On Friday, the major indexes closed higher
on the day to cap a shaky week as a “Santa Claus rally” failed
to materialize. The Dow ended
higher by 339.86 points, or 0.8%, at 42,732.13. The S&P 500 rose 1.26%, at
5,942.47. The Nasdaq
Composite advanced 1.77%, to close at 19,621.68. Each of them still
posted a losing week.
Investors are entering another
shortened trading week – which will wrap the next of the first five
January trading days – on a wobbly note and with lingering concerns about the
Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections. The New York Stock Exchange will
be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter.
Traders will be looking for clues about
the strength of the economy and the sturdiness of Fed rate plans. Callie Cox,
chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said the week ahead
could be another opportunity for traders to recalibrate their expectations.
“Data shows us that unemployment is
climbing and people are having a hard time finding jobs. There are cracks in
hiring that could re-appear at any time,” she told CNBC. “It’ll be important to
watch yields too. The 10-year yield is near a high of 4.6%, and jobs days have
rattled bond investors in the past.”
The December jobs report is due out
Friday, and will be one of the last key pieces of data before the Fed meeting
at the end of this month. Investors are also watching the Job Openings and
Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Tuesday and December ADP Employment Survey
Wednesday.
“It’s clear that both individual investors
and Wall Street have high hopes for 2025,” Cox said. “Americans are unusually
confident, CEOs are upbeat and profit growth is expected to be the strongest in
years.”
“This is a decent environment for the
stock market … But after two years of 20%+ gains, we may be a little spoiled,”
she added. “High expectations are going to be a clear, recurring theme of 2025,
and we may get our first taste of disappointment as data starts rolling in.”
Constellation Brands, Walgreens Boots
Alliance and Delta Air Lines will also report earnings toward the end of the
week.
Canada PM Trudeau is likely to announce
resignation, Reuters reports
Published Sun, Jan 5 2025 9:34 PM EST
Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau is increasingly likely to announce he intends
to step down, though he has not made a final decision, a source familiar with
Trudeau’s thinking said on Sunday.
The source spoke to Reuters after the
Globe and Mail reported that Trudeau was expected to announce as early as
Monday that he would quit as leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party after nine
years in office.
The source requested anonymity because
they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Trudeau’s departure would leave the party
without a permanent head at a time when polls show the Liberals will badly
lose to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be
held by late October.
Sources told the Globe and Mail that they
did not know definitely when Trudeau would announce his plans to leave but said
they expect it would happen before a emergency meeting of Liberal legislators
on Wednesday.
An increasing number of Liberal
parliamentarians, alarmed by a series of gloomy polls, have publicly urged
Trudeau to quit.
The prime minister’s office did not
immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular business hours.
The prime minister’s regularly published schedule for Monday said he would
participate virtually in a cabinet committee meeting on Canada-U.S. relations.
It remains unclear whether Trudeau will
leave immediately or stay on as prime minister until a new Liberal leader is
selected, the Globe and Mail report added.
Trudeau took over as Liberal leader in
2013 when the party was in deep trouble and had been reduced to third place in
the House of Commons for the first time.
If he does resign, it would likely spur
fresh calls for a quick election to put in place a stable government able to
deal with the administration of President-elect Donald Trump for the next four
years.
The prime minister has discussed with
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc whether he would be willing to step in as
interim leader and prime minister, one source told the newspaper, adding that
this would be unworkable if LeBlanc plans to run for the leadership.
More
Canada PM Trudeau is likely to announce resignation, Reuters reports
In other news, food price inflation may become permanent.
Experts say high food prices are here to
stay. Here’s why
Published Sat, Jan 4 2025 8:00 AM EST
Inflation has steadily cooled over the
past two years, despite seeing a slight stall in October and November. Prices for items
such as gasoline, used cars and energy have all declined accordingly. However,
food prices continue to outpace inflation, increasing by 28% since 2019.
More than 85% of consumers report feeling
frustrated with rising grocery prices, and over a third say they have resorted
to buying fewer items to save money, according to a 2024 survey by RR
Donnelley.
However, experts say high food prices are
here to stay.
“Once food price goes up, it tends to stay
up,” said Claudia Sahm, a chief economist at New Century Advisors. “The
inflation may come back down, so you don’t see the big price increases. But
outside of widespread depression, we don’t tend to see prices falling across
the board.”
Experts are also skeptical of whether
policy intervention can affect food prices.
“There’s really nothing government
policymakers could do about this,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply
chain management at Michigan State University. “This is not something unique to
the United States. This has been felt around the world and right now, we just
have to wait and see how things will play out as we move forward.”
The uncertainties introduced by the
current political climate also make it challenging to predict where food prices
are headed.
“There’s no doubt that tariffs will
massively make things more expensive, especially food,” said Rakeen Mabud,
chief economist at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive advocacy group.
“Same thing with mass deportations. We have workers in this country who really
prop up our food system and when you start to really harm that workforce and
send them away, that harms our entire economy.”
Watch the video above to
discover why food is still so expensive in the United States.
Inflation has
cooled, but experts believe food prices will remain high
Soaring cocoa prices force chocolate giants into
extraordinary move
3 January 2025
The soaring price of cocoa has led
chocolate makers to experiment with lab grown alternatives. Mondelez
International, which makes Oreo and Chips Ahoy cookies and Cadbury chocolate
bars, poured funding into start-up Celleste Bio earlier this month, according
to The Financial Times. The company uses cell culture technology to grow 100
percent natural cocoa from just one or two beans.
ts aim is to 'eliminate the industry's
costly reliance on fragile rainforests,' the company says on its website. It
comes as the cost of cocoa has continued to grow to dizzying heights, in a
rally that started a year ago. At their peak in April, prices for the
ingredient surpassed $12,000 per tonne, which was an almost threefold increase
from January, the FT reported.
Cocoa prices have soared due to poor
climate and bean disease in West Africa - which is home to 70 percent of global
cocoa production - which has tightened supply. 'If we don't change how we
source cocoa, we won't have chocolate in two decades,' Michal Beressi Golomb,
chief executive of Celleste Bio, told the outlet. With cell-cultured cocoa, the
industry 'won't need to be dependent on nature,' she added.
According to Golomb, record prices and
global shortages are driving a surge of interest in cocoa alternatives.
'They're really worried about having a sustainable, consistent supply of
quality cocoa,' she said. 'Everybody wants to be part of the party.' The
Israeli company, which was established in 2022, is one of several firms looking
into how the industry can become less reliant on traditional cocoa production.
British food ingredients company Tate
& Lyle has also partnered with BioHarvest Sciences to develop sweeteners
from synthetic plant-derived molecules, the outlet reported. Others are looking
to how to create sweet treats with other natural ingredients. Last year
confectioner Fazer, which is based in Finland, rolled out a limited edition
cocoa-free 'chocolate' made from local malted rye and coconut oil.
More
Soaring cocoa
prices force chocolate giants into extraordinary move
Volatile commodities prices portend a challenging
2025
Slowing growth and geopolitical risks will
weigh on oil and copper although gold will continue to benefit from safe haven
demand
Published Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · 04:00 PM
IT WAS a difficult and challenging year
for major commodities in 2024. Brent crude oil peaked at around US$90 per
barrel in the second quarter, and has since retreated to around US$75 per
barrel.
Copper – another barometer of the health
of the world economy – peaked at just under US$11,000 per tonne in the second
quarter, and fell to the US$9,000 per tonne level in December.
Gold, on the other hand, will continue to
benefit from economic and geopolitical uncertainties, and continue its strong
run in the new year.
Both Brent crude oil and copper’s volatile
price actions are symptomatic of an increasingly challenging backdrop for the
global economy.
After the initial euphoria from the latest
round of stimulus, investors have come to acknowledge that China’s economic
recovery remains fraught with challenges.
Much still needs to be done to restructure
the massive debt overhang in the domestic property sector. Both consumer and
investor confidence in China have yet to recover meaningfully, and thus, retail
spending growth remains weak, and the money supply continues to contract.
Adding further pressure to China’s
weakening economy is the daunting prospect of even higher trade tariffs next
year from a second Trump administration. Thus, we have downgraded China’s gross
domestic product growth forecast in 2025 by 0.3 percentage point to 4.3 per
cent. Realistically, it is becoming increasingly difficult for China to achieve
its 5 per cent growth target.
In Europe, the growth outlook is
increasingly challenging too. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, eurozone
countries now need to spend much more fiscally for their collective defence.
This higher indebtedness is coming at a
time when growth for both Germany and France, traditionally the eurozone’s twin
industrial powerhouses, are now near borderline recessionary levels.
Specifically, France’s sovereign rating has been cut recently due to the
worsening budget and political crisis.
Volatile commodities prices portend a challenging 2025
Every civilization that has ever existed has ultimately collapsed. History is a tale of efforts that failed, or aspirations that weren’t realized. So, as a historian, one has to live with a sense of the inevitability of tragedy.
Henry A. Kissinger.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
may slip into recession on rising debt, says smallcase study
Updated
- December 30, 2024 at 06:47 PM. | Mumbai
The
study also highlights the US debt-to-GDP ratio climbing to a record 124%, with
over $1 trillion spent on public debt interest in 2024
smallcase,
a leading platform for curated investment strategies, expects the US economy
may slip into a recession due to the rising debt and market imbalances.
Stocks,
Bitcoin, leveraged investments and meme stocks (largely driven by activity on social
media) are all surging higher, which is certainly reminiscent of the “madness”
witnessed following the Covid lockdowns, said a smallcase study.
In
this background, gold and silver has emerged as a safe haven amid looming
recession in the US.
Multiple
economic indicators raise alarms about the probability of a looming US
recession. From rising credit card delinquencies to elevated S&P 500 P/E
ratios, the findings reveal the challenges ahead. The S&P 500 trades at a
P/E ratio of 31.2 times, a historically high level associated with past market
corrections.
Additionally,
credit card delinquencies have surpassed 4 per cent for the first time since
2010, reflecting rising financial stress and potential strain on consumer
spending. These indicators, among others, suggest heightened economic
vulnerabilities.
The
study also highlights the US debt-to-GDP ratio climbing to a record 124 per
cent, with over $1 trillion spent on public debt interest in 2023. This growing
debt burden has significant implications for economic growth and fiscal
sustainability, it said.
Gold
and silver have consistently served as reliable hedges during periods of
economic uncertainty. Historical data underscores their performance in past
recessions, with gold showing gains of up to 100 per cent and silver exhibiting
increases as high as 300 per cent during stagflationary periods.
Central
banks remain active in the gold market, with notable purchases recorded in
2024. The RBI added 37 tonne of gold, while the People’s Bank of China acquired
27 tonne, and the National Bank of Poland emerged as a leading buyer in the
third quarter. Silver’s dual industrial and investment roles continue to drive
its demand, bolstered by advancements in green technologies and 5G deployment,
said smallcase.
Ujjwal
Kumar, smallcase Manager, Founder and Chief Investment Officer Wealth Culture
said while it is difficult to say when exactly the US can enter a recession,
data seems to suggest that things are not looking as great.
Investors
should take a very balanced approach to their portfolio and focus on value
rather than chasing momentum. If and when there is more clarity on a potential
recession in the US, both gold and silver are expected to do well, he added.
US may slip into
recession on rising debt, says smallcase study - The Hindu BusinessLine
Pound
slumps to nine-month low amid fears of industrial recession
Factory
activity falls at fastest pace in 11 months as Budget tax raid hammers
confidence
02
January 2025 12:48pm GMT
The
pound has fallen to its lowest level since April after an influential survey
warned that Britain is at risk of an industrial recession.
Sterling
slumped 1pc against the US dollar to less than $1.24 on Thursday,
fuelled by fears that the UK economy is
grinding to a halt.
That
is unlike growing optimism in the US, where Donald Trump’s anticipated tax cuts
are expected to support growth and strengthen the dollar.
According
to the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a survey of companies from S&P
Global, activity levels
across the UK’s factories fell at their fastest pace in 11 months in
December, down from 48 to 47.
This
marked Britain’s third successive month below 50, which is the threshold that
divides growth from contraction.
More,
subscription required.
Pound slumps to nine-month low amid fears of industrial recession
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
What Will Happen to COVID-19 in 2025? Experts Explain
December
3, 2025
The
COVID-19 pandemic was five years ago but the virus continues to circulate among
global populations—could that change in 2025? The experts think not.
In
fact, three experts told Newsweek that 2025 will look much the
same as 2024 in terms of COVID-19 risk.
Molecular
virologist Professor Jonathan Ball, Deputy Vice Chancellor at the Liverpool
School of Tropical Medicine, said: "I think next year will play out
similar to last: outbreaks associated with the emergence of new variants and/or
waning population immunity."
Dr.
Robert H. Hopkins Jr., medical director of the National Foundation for
Infectious Diseases, said: "Improvement in vaccine uptake, vaccine access
and availability., ongoing evolution of COVID-19 variants and the willingness
of our society to learn—and adhere to—the lessons of the pandemic will all
impact the trajectory of COVID-19 in 2025.
"Unless
we see significant changes in behavior, I expect 2025 to look very much like
2024."
And
infectious disease epidemiologist Professor Christophe Fraser, at the Pandemic
Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, echoed this sentiment, saying:
"I think 2025 will look a lot like 2024.
"We
should expect the virus to continue circulating at high levels, one or two new
variants to appear, likely continuing to be descendants of Omicron and we
expect vaccine and infection-derived immunity to be protecting most people from
the worst effects of this virus."
That's
not to say that something could not happen to change the threat
level of COVID-19 to public health—but the experts said this is unlikely.
"The
only thing that would make a major impact would be the emergence of a new
variant so genetically different to previous variants that immunity through
past infections or vaccinations will be massively undermined," said Ball.
"But this is a big unknown."
He
explained that, while the virus is able to circulate and infect people, there
would be no selective pressure to force dramatic change, so the emergence of a
very different variant was unlikely—although not impossible.
More
What Will Happen to COVID-19 in 2025? Experts Explain
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Big leap
forward for environmentally friendly ‘e-textiles’ technology
Media
Relations Team, 03 January 2025
A
research team led by UWE Bristol and the University of Southampton has
shown wearable electronic textiles (e-textiles) can be both sustainable and
biodegradable.
A new
study, which also involved the universities of Exeter, Cambridge, Leeds and
Bath, describes and tests a new sustainable approach for fully inkjet-printed,
eco-friendly e-textiles named ‘Smart, Wearable, and Eco-friendly Electronic
Textiles’, or ‘SWEET’.
Findings
are published in the journal Energy and
Environmental Materials.
E-textiles
are those with embedded electrical components, such as sensors, batteries or
lights. They might be used in fashion, for performance sportwear, or for
medical purposes as garments that monitor people’s vital signs.
Such
textiles need to be durable, safe to wear and comfortable, but also, in an
industry which is increasingly concerned with clothing waste, they need to be
kind to the environment when no longer required.
Professor Nazmul
Karim at the University of Southampton’s Winchester School
of Art , who led the study, explains: “Integrating electrical components
into conventional textiles complicates the recycling of the material because it
often contains metals, such as silver, that don’t easily biodegrade. Our
potential ecofriendly approach for selecting sustainable materials and
manufacturing overcomes this, enabling the fabric to decompose when it is
disposed of.”
The
team’s design has three layers, a sensing layer, a layer to interface with the
sensors and a base fabric. It uses a textile called Tencel for the base, which
is made from renewable wood and is biodegradable. The active electronics in the
design are made from graphene, along with a polymer called PEDOT: PSS. These
conductive materials are precision inkjet-printed onto the fabric.
The
researchers tested samples of the material for continuous monitoring of human
physiology using five volunteers. Swatches of the fabric, connected to
monitoring equipment, were attached to gloves worn by the participants. Results
confirmed the material can effectively and reliably measure both heart rate and
temperature at the industry standard level.
Dr
Shaila Afroj, an Associate Professor of Sustainable Materials from the
University of Exeter and a co-author of the study, highlighted the importance
of this performance: “Achieving reliable, industry-standard monitoring with
eco-friendly materials is a significant milestone. It demonstrates that
sustainability doesn’t have to come at the cost of functionality, especially in
critical applications like healthcare.”
The
project team then buried the e-textiles in soil to measure its biodegradable
properties. After four months, the fabric had lost 48 percent of its weight and
98 percent of its strength, suggesting relatively rapid and also effective
decomposition. Furthermore, a life cycle assessment revealed the graphene-based
electrodes had up to 40 times less impact on the environment than standard
electrodes.
Marzia
Dulal, a Commonwealth PhD Scholar and the first author of the study based at
UWE Bristol’s Centre
for Print Research, highlighted the environmental impact:
“Our life cycle analysis shows that graphene-based e-textiles have a fraction
of the environmental footprint compared to traditional electronics. This makes
them a more responsible choice for industries looking to reduce their
ecological impact.”
More
Big leap forward
for environmentally friendly ‘e-textiles’ technology | UWE Bristol
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Depopulation
should be the highest priority of foreign policy towards the third world,
because the US economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals
from abroad, especially from less developed countries
Henry A. Kissinger.
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