Baltic
Dry Index. 1043 -29
Brent Crude 76.31
Spot Gold 2646 US 2 Year Yield 4.28 unch.
"When a President does it, that means that it is not illegal."
President Richard Nixon.
In the stock casinos, a tech rally, but everything else lags or wobbles.
Canada joins Germany, France, Spain and the UK in political difficulty/turmoil.
Musk Trump 13 days away
from seizing Greenland, Panama, Canada, Mexico, UK and China?
Prepare for a very different world economy. President Trump’s second term in office has no prospect of an 8 year horizon. The next four years is it. Who or what comes after Trump 2.0?
US politics is about to get four years of posturing for the spoils of 2029-2032.
But what if a global recession hits in Trump 2.0? Four trillion of annual deficit spending/fiat money printing?
Get some fully paid up, physical gold and silver held securely outside of the US, UK banking system.
Japan stocks lead gains in Asia-Pacific markets
after tech rally lifts Wall Street higher
Updated Tue, Jan 7 2025 12:07 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday,
following an overnight rally in technology shares on Wall Street that saw
the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite post
back-to-back gains.
Global semiconductor stocks, including
heavyweight Nvidia,
climbed Monday after contract electronics giant Foxconn announced record
fourth-quarter revenue.
Taiwanese chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company hit a fresh high on Tuesday, building on the previous
session’s gains.
A rally in tech stocks propelled a 2.49%
rise in Japan’s Nikkei 225,
which led gains among its regional peers. The broad-based Topix gained 1.32%.
Shares of Nippon Steel fell about
1.39% after the company, along with U.S. Steel, sued the U.S. government
over President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s $14.9
billion takeover of the U.S company.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.02%, with
chip heavyweight Samsung Electronics extending gains to rise about 0.89%. The
small-cap Kosdaq was up 0.47%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 started the
day 0.31% higher, on pace for a fourth day of gains.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
0.57%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was 0.13% up.
Hong Kong-listed tech stocks are in the
spotlight after the U.S. Defense Department added Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings and
battery maker CATL to
a list of firms it calls “Chinese military companies.”
Tencent’s Hong
Kong listed shares are currently down over 5%, and had hit a loss of as
much as 7.03% during the trading session.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 advanced 0.55%
and climbed alongside the Nasdaq, which gained 1.24% on the back of the
tech rally.
However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged,
reversing earlier gains and falling 0.06%.
Asia
markets live: Tech stocks rally, Tencent, CATL
Tencent shares fall 7% in Hong Kong after U.S.
designates it a Chinese military company
Published Mon, Jan 6 2025 8:34 PM EST
Shares of Chinese tech heavyweight Tencent Holdings tumbled 7%
in Hong Kong after the company was added to a list of “Chinese military companies” by the U.S.
Department of Defense.
The move follows a near 8% fall in Tencent’s U.S. depository receipts on
Wall Street.
Other Chinese companies added to the list
included battery maker CATL,
which is part of the supply chain for automakers such as Ford and Tesla.
CATL shares, which fell as much as 5.6%,
were last down 2.8% in Shenzhen.
The National Defence Authorization Act of 2024 says that
the DoD will be prohibited from procuring goods or services directly from
entities on the list in June 2026, and indirectly from June 2027.
In response to the decision, Tencent said
in a statement that its inclusion on the list was “clearly a mistake.”
“We are not a military company or
supplier. Unlike sanctions or export controls, this listing has no impact on
our business,” the company added. CATL also called the designation “a mistake”
in a response, saying it “is not engaged in any military related activities.”
Tencent has a good chance of managing to
secure its exclusion from the list through U.S. courts due to the company’s
business model, which primarily revolves around social networking and online
gaming, said Ivan Su, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.
The U.S. has taken aim at Chinese tech
companies as it seeks to restrict transfer of high-end technologies to China.
Last year, it revoked
certain licenses to sell chips to China’s Huawei in May and unveiling
new sweeping export controls on critical technologies in September,
including quantum computing and semiconductor goods.
In 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and
Security said companies must apply for a license if they want to sell
certain advanced computing semiconductors or related manufacturing equipment to
China.
Tencent
shares fall 7% in Hong Kong after U.S. designates it a Chinese military company
China’s biggest shipping line added to US military blacklist
Published Tue, Jan 7, 2025 · 12:12 PM
COSCO Shipping Holdings, China’s biggest
marine transport line, has been blacklisted by the US government for alleged
links with the People’s Liberation Army.
The shipping line was named in a Federal
Register filing on Tuesday (Jan 7) as qualifying as a Chinese military company
as determined by the Pentagon, along with Tencent Holdings and Contemporary
Amperex Technology.
Cosco shares fell as much as 4.4 per cent
in Hong Kong on Tuesday, more than the city’s benchmark stock index. Chinese
oil major China National Offshore Oil Corporation (Cnooc) was also on the list.
Its stock dropped as much as 1.6 per cent in Hong Kong.
The two companies did not immediately
respond to requests for comment.
Both firms have been previously targeted
by Washington. Cosco was sanctioned in 2019 for hauling Iranian oil, with those
penalties lifted in 2020. Cnooc was one of the earliest Chinese state-owned
enterprises to be hit with US sanctions and was also added to a Pentagon
blacklist in 2021.
While being on the blacklist carries no
specific penalties, it discourages US firms from dealing with those companies.
Two Chinese shipbuilders – China State Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding
Trading – were also included on the list.
The Pentagon’s latest blacklist highlights
increased scrutiny of marine transport and shipbuilding, with wars in the
Middle East and Ukraine and Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House
putting geopolitical concerns front and centre. China has the world’s largest
shipbuilding sector, producing more than half of merchant vessels globally,
while the US industry has virtually collapsed over the last generation.
More
China’s
biggest shipping line added to US military blacklist
European markets head for lower open, with traders
focused on euro zone inflation data
Updated Tue, Jan 7 2025 12:45 AM EST
European markets are heading for a
negative open on Tuesday as investors in the region focus on the latest euro
zone inflation data.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 40 points lower at 8,200, Germany’s DAX down 87 points at
20,123, France’s CAC down
33 points at 7,414 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 172 points at
34,696, according to data from IG.
Traders will be keeping a close eye on
preliminary inflation data for the euro zone in December, as well as the bloc’s
unemployment rate in November.
Earnings are set to come from Next
and Sodexo Tuesday,
and data releases will include the U.K. Halifax house price index, French and
Italian inflation figures and Italian unemployment data.
German inflation data released on Monday
showed the country’s consumer price index rose to a higher-than-expected 2.9%
in December. Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 2.6% reading.
Regional markets traded higher at the
start of the week as investors assessed a media report suggesting U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plan may not be as extreme as feared.
The Washington Post reported that Trump’s team is
considering a plan to impose tariffs on all countries, but only on “critical
imports,” although these were not specified. Trump later disputed the report in
a Truth
Social post.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets rose Tuesday, following Monday’s rally in technology shares on
Wall Street that saw the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite post
back-to-back gains. U.S.
stock futures slipped on Tuesday morning, however.
European markets live updates: euro zone inflation data in focus
Treasury yields inch higher as investors look
ahead to key jobs data
Published Mon, Jan 6 2025 4:20 AM EST
----Investors are awaiting key jobs data
to be published throughout another shortened trading week. The New York Stock
Exchange will close trading on Thursday to observe a national day of mourning
for the death of former
President Jimmy Carter.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is set
to speak on Monday morning, which investors will watch closely for hints about
the economic outlook for the year.
They will also look to the JOLTS Job
Opening data for November on Tuesday, a monthly survey showing the number of
job vacancies in the United States. Economists are expecting 7.7 million job
openings in November, according to Dow Jones.
Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change
report for December is due on Wednesday, a measure of the change in the number
of people employed in the private sector in the U.S. It’s expected to show that
130,000 jobs were added in December, per Dow Jones.
Finally on Friday, the nonfarm payrolls
report will be released — one of the last key pieces of data to be published
before the Fed meets again at the end of January. The report will show the
number of people employed in the U.S. and is a major indicator of the health of
the U.S. economy.
The report is forecast to show that the
U.S. added 155,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate remained steady
at 4.2%, per Dow Jones estimates.
U.S. Treasury yields: investors look ahead to key jobs data
Trump reportedly considering important alteration
to tariff plans
Published Mon, Jan 6 2025 8:54 AM EST Updated
Mon, Jan 6 2025 12:07 PM EST
President-elect Donald Trump is considering
a plan that still would apply tariffs to all nations but narrow the focus to a
select set of goods and services, according to a Washington Post report.
The new approach to tariffs likely
wouldn’t be as powerful as Trump’s earlier ideas but still would cause major
changes to global commerce, the paper said, citing people familiar with Trump’s
thinking.
Trump, however, disputed the report in a post on
Truth Social.
“The story in the Washington Post, quoting
so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my
tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong,” he wrote.
The report comes amid concerns that the
incoming president’s insistence on imposing universal tariffs of 10% or 20% and
specifically targeting China and Mexico would cause another spike in inflation.
During Trump’s first term, duties on a
wide range of imports did little to raise prices broadly and in fact were kept
in place when Joe Biden took
over as president. However, economists worry that conditions are different now
and aggressive tariffs would have a greater impact.
The Post report said it’s still not clear
which sectors would be affected by the plans, though early discussions are
looking at various industrial metals, medical supplies and energy.
The U.S. is running a $74 billion monthly
trade deficit that exploded during the Covid pandemic.
Trump
reportedly considering important alteration to tariff plans
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
economy ‘acutely’ at risk after Europe burns through gas reserves
6
January 2035
Europe
is burning through its gas reserves at the fastest pace in seven years,
leaving Germany
“acutely” exposed as cold weather sweeps the Continent.
Stockpiles
have dropped more quickly than at any point since 2018, falling 25pc from their
peak, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data compiled by Bloomberg.
Storage
sites are just over 70pc full across Europe, compared to about 86pc a year ago,
after temperatures dropped over the weekend.
Forecasters
predict freezing conditions from Spain across to Poland and Ukraine this week,
leaving gas prices hovering around their highest level in more than a year.
Prices rose by 4pc last week.
Germany
suffered the largest drop in its gas stockpiles among its European peers, with
storage sites 78pc full compared to 81pc a week earlier, which was in line with
the average for the time of year.
France’s
gas reserves are at just 57pc capacity, compared to a five-year average of 75pc
for this time of year. Britain’s storage sites are about 55pc full.
Economists
warned the fall in gas storage levels could keep prices higher through the
summer, when countries begin replenishing their stocks.
Hamad
Hussain, of Capital Economics, said: “Given that the sharp fall in gas storage
levels will probably continue, natural gas demand may remain relatively strong
in spring and summer when European countries turn their attention to refilling
gas inventories.
“In
turn, this will limit the extent to which European natural gas prices could
fall this year.
“The
impact of high natural gas prices would be felt acutely in Germany given the
large size of its energy-intensive manufacturing industry.”
Samantha
Dart, of Goldman Sachs, said: “The lower that end-March storage levels are, the
harder it will be for the region to refill ahead of the next winter.
“Specifically,
under the colder-than-average scenario that is currently forecast.”
The
sharp rise in gas prices follows the “Dunkelflaute” experienced in Europe at
the end of last year, a weather phenomenon where low winds and heavy clouds
impact power generation from renewable energy sources.
Florence
Schmit, of Rabobank, said: “While these price increases will be felt across
Europe, countries with higher storage requirements and high gas demand also in
summer, like Germany and Italy, will be more exposed to these price shocks.”
European
gas prices have already been stretched after Ukraine last week closed off the
last route allowing Russia to sell gas to Europe through its territory.
More
German economy
‘acutely’ at risk after Europe burns through gas reserves
German
inflation rises more than expected in December
6
January 2025
BERLIN
(Reuters) - German inflation rose more than forecast to 2.9% in December,
preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday.
Analysts
polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 2.6% in December, after a
year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2.4% in November, based on data
harmonised to compare with other European Union countries.
Core
inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, went up to 3.1% from
3.0% in November.
Energy
prices fell by 1.7% compared with the previous year, while food prices rose by
2.0% year-on-year in December, data from the statistics office showed.
Economists
pay close attention to national inflation data, as Germany publishes its
figures one day before the euro zone inflation data release.
Euro
zone inflation is expected to rise to 2.4% in December from 2.2% in November.
The
European Central Bank expects inflation to settle at its 2% target this year
after hitting double digits in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of
Ukraine in 2022.
German inflation
rises more than expected in December
Eurozone
economy figures see slowdown for last month of 2024
6
January 2025
Falls
in new business and employment were the major reasons why the eurozone economy
ended 2024 with a slight contraction, according to the HCOB Eurozone Composite
PMI Output Index, the result of a survey of around 5,000 private sector
companies.
The
composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which includes both manufacturing
and services stood at 49.6 in December 2024 in the eurozone, following
November's 48.3 figure. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity
compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 reflects a
contraction.
"Sustained
decline in new business weighs on activity and employment, but confidence
improves", said the report, adding that the eurozone's contraction in
December was entirely manufacturing-led, with a sharp drop in factory
production, as services activity bounced back.
Employment
across the euro-using countries subsequently fell in December, with firms
reducing their workforce capacity, not just by redundancies, but by non-renewal
of temporary contracts or refraining from replacing departing employees.
"The
rate of job shedding was the joint-sharpest in four years (matching that seen
in October)", said the report, adding that the trend was exclusively
driven by the manufacturing sector.
According
to the report, the price increases for businesses were accelerating in December
across the bloc.
The
three biggest economies in the bloc, Germany, France and Italy, all recorded
reductions in business activity during the final month of 2024.
On
the other hand, Spain and Ireland recorded continued expansions in economic
activity, with private sector output in Spain rising at the fastest pace since
March 2023.
France,
the weakest-performing economy among these five countries, posted a composite
PMI of 47.5. It was followed by Germany (48), and Italy (49.7) which saw just a
marginal decrease in output.
More
Eurozone economy
figures see slowdown for last month of 2024
Business
confidence slumps in ‘pressure cooker’ of higher taxes
Monday 06 January 2025 6:00 am
UK
businesses are more
worried about tax than
at any point in the last eight years, a new survey shows, in the latest sign of
the Budget’s “worrying reverberations” in the business community.
The
British Chamber of Commerce’s quarterly survey showed that 63 per cent of firms
cited tax as a worry in the final quarter of last year, up from 48 per cent in
the third quarter.
This
was the highest proportion of firms who were concerned about the tax burden
since the question was first asked back in 2017. It shows how the Budget has
spooked many businesses.
Chancellor
Rachel Reeves hiked employers’ national
insurance to 15 per cent in the Budget and also slashed the threshold at
which firms have to start paying the levy.
Shevaun
Haviland, director general of the BCC, said that the tax hike sent a chill
through corporate confidence in the final three months of the year.
“Firms
of all shapes and sizes are telling us the national insurance hike is
particularly damaging. Businesses are already cutting back on investment and
say they will have to put up prices in the coming months,” she said.
The
survey showed that business
confidence fell
to its lowest level since the aftermath of the mini-Budget, with only 49 per
cent of firms anticipating turnover to increase in the next year.
Over
half (55 per cent) of firms said they plan to raise prices in the next three
months, up from 39 per cent who said the same in the third quarter.
Investment
plans appear to have been scaled back too. Nearly a quarter (24 per cent) of
respondents said they have cut back back investment plans, up from 18 per cent
the quarter before.
“The
worrying reverberations of the Budget are clear to see in our survey data,”
Haviland said. “Business confidence has slumped in a pressure cooker of rising
costs and taxes.”
A
separate survey from BDO shows that the Budget is not the only concern for
businesses entering the New Year.
Over
a quarter (29 per cent) of respondents are dealing with significant supply
chain challenges, which have caused delayed deliveries and inventory shortages.
The prospect of
tariffs on
global trade has only exacerbated business fears about supply chain disruption,
the survey suggested.
Business confidence slumps in 'pressure cooker' of higher taxes
Labour
workers' rights shake-up sees small firms slash jobs and cut hiring
5
January 2024
Nearly
a third of small businesses plan to axe staff this year in response to
legislation introduced by the new Labour government, data suggests.
A
poll conducted by the Federation of Small Businesses showed 32 per cent of
respondents plan to reduce headcount as a result of the Employments Rights
Bill, while 67 per cent say they will recruit fewer new workers.
More
than 90 per cent of members said they were concerned about the bill, with many
citing a fear of getting sued under planned changes to unfair dismissal
legislation.
The
FSB has urged the Government to make urgent changes to the bill, which it says
will see Britain's benefits bill soar after nearly half of respondents to its
survey claimed they would avoid hiring out-of-work and first job applicants.
The
Employment Rights Bill is the first phase of delivering Labour's 'Plan to Make
Work Pay', and provides support for employers, workers, and unions 'to get
Britain moving forward'.
The
Government says the bill will update and modernise the current legislative
framework in relation to employment rights.
It
has passed its first and second reading, and is now at the committee stage in
the House of Commons. The bill will also have to pass the Commons' report and
third reading stage, before being submitted to the House of Lords for further
scrutiny.
More
Labour workers' rights shake-up sees small firms slash jobs and cut hiring
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Another
Covid-19 like pandemic in the making? HMPV, China's mystery illness, has
already struck UK with alarming proportions
6
January 2024
Human
metapneumovirus (hMPV), which is reportedly on the rise in China, has now
started to spread in the UK, according to a report on the Daily Star.
Human
metapneumovirus or hMPV cases rose to 4.5 per cent. Apart from this, children
aged under 5 years had hMPV at 10 per cent during December 23 and December 29,
Daily Star reported quoting a study from gov.uk.
This
comes at a time when other influenza strains -- Parainfluenza, Adenovirus, and
Rhinovirus -- have shown declining trends in the UK, the Daily Star report
shows.
China's
diseases control authority said on December 27 that it was piloting a
monitoring system for pneumonia of unknown origin, with cases of some
respiratory diseases expected to rise through the winter, Reuters reported.
The
move to establish a dedicated system is aimed at helping authorities set up
protocols to handle unknown pathogens, in contrast to the lower level of
preparedness five years ago when the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19
first emerged, as per a Reuters report.
The
National Disease Control and Prevention Administration will establish a
procedure for laboratories to report and for disease control and prevention
agencies to verify and handle cases, state broadcaster CCTV reported, quoting
an administration official at a news conference.
FAQs
Q1.
What are major strains of influenza?
A1.
Major influenza strains are Parainfluenza, Adenovirus, and Rhinovirus.
Q2.
What is the name of new virus?
A2.
Human metapneumovirus (hMPV).
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
What Are
Solid-State Batteries, and Why Do They Matter for EVs?
John
Voelcker Sun 5 January 2025 at 1:09 pm
GMT
Advances
in battery technology—for consumer electronics and electric vehicles alike—are
largely incremental, and have been since the advent of modern lithium-ion cells
almost 30 years ago. Three factors combine to reduce costs at roughly
8 percent a year: tweaks to battery chemistries, higher
yields at cell factories, and economies of scale from high-volume production.
Longtime
Holy Grail
The
next big battery advance may be solid-state cells, long a Holy Grail for
battery engineers all over the world. They offer the lure of greater energy
density, faster recharging, and better safety than cells with liquid
electrolytes. Some do away entirely with today’s graphite anodes—a substance
whose processing and supply is controlled entirely by Chinese producers.
How
large are the gains? According to what Toyota
has announced about its future battery plans, a pack employing a
solid-state battery could improve the range by nearly 70 percent and reduce 10
to 80 percent DC fast-charging time from 30 minutes to 10. Although any range
claims are affected substantially by the assumptions of the underlying vehicle
and characteristics such as weight and aerodynamics.
Developing
solid-state cells has led dozens of companies globally to spend tens of
billions of dollars on R&D over the past decade and a half. Now, the goal
may be getting closer. Multiple carmakers across the globe have announced
pilots, prototypes, or other advances in solid-state cells. Expect that pace to
ramp up over the next few years.
The
Many Types of “Solid State”
With
"solid state" as the battery buzzword du jour, it’s
useful to understand how a solid-state cell differs from today's cells with
liquid electrolytes. The problem is compounded because "there is no broad
agreement on the definition of 'solid state,'" notes Haresh Kamath, who
designed battery cells for spacecraft at Lockheed Martin. (He is presently the
director of distributed energy resources and energy storage at the Electric
Power Research Institute, or EPRI, an independent, nonprofit research organization
for the U.S. electric utility industry.)
In
other words, take any mention of solid-state cells for EVs, whether from a
carmaker or a battery company, with a grain of salt until you dive into the
particulars.
Broadly
speaking, the term "solid state" refers to using a solid material for
both the separator that keeps anode and cathode from touching and the medium
through which the electrons pass as the cell discharges or charges. The liquid
electrolyte in today’s cells, a flammable organic solvent, is absorbed by the
three materials (anode, cathode, and separator), all somewhat spongy. Unlike a
lead-acid starter battery, the cell has no excess liquid sloshing around, only
enough to moisten the electrodes.
Losing
the Liquid Electrolyte
Several
variations of separator and medium exist between today’s liquid electrolytes
and tomorrow’s full solid-state cells:
- Semi-solid electrolytes in
quasi-solid-state cells, of which so-called lithium-polymer batteries
(using liquid electrolyte held in a polymerized gel) may be the
best-known.
- High-temperature, non-liquid,
ionically conductive polymers (extensively tested a decade ago).
- Ceramic-coated polymers, also
requiring high operating temperatures.
- Pure ceramics (oxides, sulfides,
phosphates) or glass solid electrolytes, also requiring high temperatures.
The
last three allow the use of lithium metal anodes, with a cathode of either
lithiated metal oxide (nickel oxide, aluminum oxide, manganese oxide, cobalt
oxide, or some blend of those), or iron phosphate.
Alternatively,
using lithium metal as a cathode with a solid-state separator can also allow
what are called "anode-free cells": those in which the anode is
supplanted by a copper current collector on which lithium metal is deposited
during charge. This obviates the need for graphite—a substance for which China
presently controls the bulk of global production.
But
lithium metal has its own safety risks. Solid lithium metal is highly flammable
at any temperature, reacting violently with moisture, water, or steam. Any cell
maker using solid lithium will be under intense scrutiny to prove its new cells
are at least as safe as today's, let alone supporting claims of much greater
safety.
Recent
solid-state news includes a November announcement by Honda that it would set up
a test
production line for solid-state cells to understand
which materials and processes would offer cost-competitive high volumes for the
new technology.
More
What Are
Solid-State Batteries, and Why Do They Matter for EVs?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
"The
leaders of the French Revolution excited the poor against the rich; this made
the rich poor, but it never made the poor rich.”
Fisher
Ames, 1758-1808.
No comments:
Post a Comment