London Irvine Report: Special Update 18/01/2025 Trump Mania 2.0 Starts Monday Noon EST.

Baltic Dry Index. 987 -36 Brent Crude 80.79

Spot Gold 2703 U S 2 Year Yield 4.27 +0.04

US Federal Debt. 36.365 trillion.

There is no global anthem, no global currency, no certificate of global citizenship. We pledge allegiance to one flag, and that flag is the American flag.

Donald Trump.

In the US stock casinos, Trump Mania starts next week!

What could possibly go wrong?

Dow surges more than 300 points, S&P 500 posts best week since period following Trump's election: Live updates

Updated Fri, Jan 17 2025 4:16 PM EST

Stocks climbed Friday, as the three major averages posted their first weekly gain of the new year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 334.70 points, or 0.78%, to end at 43,487.83. The S&P 500 gained 1% to 5,996.66, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.51% to 19,630.20.

Big tech stocks were higher on the day, with shares of Tesla popping 3%. Chipmaking giant Nvidia jumped 3.1%, while Alphabet shares added more than 1%.

For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 advanced 3.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Both indexes posted their biggest weekly advance since the week of the U.S. presidential election in November. The Nasdaq climbed 2.5% week to date for its best one-week performance since early December.

Those gains come after investors received back-to-back reports showing inflationary pressures softening somewhat. The core consumer price index rose less than expected year on year, and the producer price index also had a smaller-than-anticipated increase for December. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back sharply as hopes for multiple rate cuts this year rose.

The better-than-expected economic data earlier this week has helped “revive the goldilocks narrative for equities, and likely prompted some re-risking,” Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau wrote in a Friday note.

Strong earnings from major banks also boosted stocks this week, as they tried to shake off December doldrums that carried over into the start of 2025. Shares of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup were each roughly 12% higher on the week, while JPMorgan Chase added 8% in the period.

Investors are also looking ahead to next week, as Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as president for the second time. Stocks rallied right after his November electoral victory, as investors bet on deregulation and lower taxes.

Stock market news for Jan. 17, 2025

In other news.

Traders bet on more Bank of England rate cuts in 2025 after data shocks

Published Fri, Jan 17 2025 7:45 AM EST

LONDON — Traders bet on more Bank of England rate cuts this year after weak retail sales data added to the latest in a run of data surprises this week.

Sales volumes fell 0.3% month-on-month in December, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, versus the 0.4% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

“Cautious spending” dominated during the holiday period, said Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at consultancy Retail Economics, adding that the figures showed the continued impact of the cost-of-living crisis on consumer behavior.

Following the Friday release, markets priced in a total of more than 75 basis points worth of interest rate cuts throughout 2025 from the BOE’s current key rate of 4.75%. That compares to around 65 basis points of cuts expected on the previous day, though this then eased back toward 70 basis points later on Friday. The central bank next meets Feb. 6, when a quarter-point cut is widely expected.

The disappointing retail data adds to the dim economic picture in the U.K. and to the challenges facing Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who has made rebooting growth and cutting the country’s debt to GDP ratio her main focus as she enters her first full year in office.

Earlier this week, the ONS announced that the U.K. economy grew by just 0.1% in November and stagnated over a three-month timeframe. Inflation meanwhile cooled more than expected to 2.5%, also boosting market bets on the extent of BOE rate cuts this year after 2024′s half-percentage point reduction.

Further complicating the picture for Reeves, who announced a large-scale package of tax increases in late October aimed at reducing the deficit, is recent volatility in the global bond market which has been acutely felt in the U.K. While borrowing costs have eased this week, the premium on long-term debt has scaled 27-year highs this month, with short-term yields elevated to levels not seen since the Financial Crisis.

This has led to the prospect of higher mortgage rates and raised questions over whether Reeves will announce further tax hikes or public spending reductions to meet her self-imposed fiscal rules.

Traders add to Bank of England rate cut bets after data shocks

The cost of the Los Angeles wildfires' damage could be at least $250 billion. Here's who pays the bills.

Allie Kelly Jan 15, 2025, 9:01 AM GMT

The damage and economic-cost estimates for the wildfires in Los Angeles are in the hundreds of billions, a bill that will be split among local and federal governments, insurers, and residents.

As of Tuesday, LA authorities reported that 24 people had died and over 12,300 structures had been destroyed. Meanwhile, more than 40,000 acres have burned, displacing residents and leveling neighborhoods. High winds expected this week have firefighters racing to contain the blazes.

And as the damage increases, so does the price tag.

In a new estimate, the weather-data platform AccuWeather puts the total cost between $250 and $275 billion and calls the damage "catastrophic." The full cost of the wildfires won't be clear until long after the smoke clears, and expensive rebuilding efforts could take years.

The wildfire cost will likely be calculated through direct and indirect damages

Who Pays the Cost of the LA Wildfires' Damage - Business Insider

Tesla Cybertruck seized after being unlawfully driven on UK roads

17 January 2025

Officers from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) stopped a permanent UK resident in Whitefield, Bury, after they were spotted driving the unique-looking electric vehicle.

The Cybertruck is illegal to drive in the UK and this one was found to be registered and insured abroad as well.

Bury Police said: "The driver was a permanent UK resident but the vehicle was registered and insured abroad which is prohibited in the UK.

"The Tesla Cybertruck is not road legal in the UK and does not hold a certificate of conformity.

"Whilst this may seem trivial to some, legitimate concerns exist around the safety of other road users or pedestrians if they were involved in a collision with a Cybertruck.

"The vehicle was subsequently seized under S165 of the Road Traffic Act and the driver reported".

It's understood the vehicle was referred to Operation Wolverine, which was established in 2007 to target drivers without insurance.

The driver will now have to prove ownership and correct insurance before getting it released.

However, even if they get it back they still will not be able to drive it on UK roads.

At 5.6m, the Cybertruck is longer than a standard Range Rover - which is just over 5m in length.

It was released by Tesla in 2023 after being first shown in prototype form in 2019.

Toward the end of last year, Tesla recalled almost 700,000 Cybertrucks in the US over an issue with the tyre pressure monitoring system

Tesla Cybertruck seized after being unlawfully driven on UK roads

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

This weekend, a UK economy rolling over to join Germany in recession. Arguably, the UK economy is already in recession, with the April tax increases still to come.

Fresh agony for Rachel Reeves with another economy flop as key metric plummets

17 January 2025

UK retail sales fell last month, with food and specialist retailers taking the biggest hit, according to ONS stats released on Friday.

Analysts had expected the figures to rise by 0.4% after a 0.1% increase in November.

Rachel Reeves is expected to come under more pressure following the announcement.

Since announcing a raft of tax and National Insurance hikes in her maiden budget last October, the embattled Chancellor of the Exchequer has been blamed for a dramatic rise in the cost of government borrowing and a dive in both UK business and consumer confidence.

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest said shoppers may have been adopting a more cautious approach towards spending during the Christmas period. She said: "Mortgage rates have been volatile since the Budget amid shifting interest rate expectations and the cost of servicing loans, credit cards and overdrafts remains high."

December was a weak month for supermarkets and food store sales fell by 1.9% to their lowest level in more than a decade, the ONS said.

Specialist food stores like butchers and bakers, as well as alcohol and tobacco shops - including vaping shops- also saw sales volume decline.

Fresh agony for Rachel Reeves with another economy flop as key metric plummets

The job market gloom that signals a looming recession

17 January 2025

Nick Coburn was until recently planning to hire more staff. But after companies like his were hit by a £25bn tax raid in the Budget, he is now racing to find ways to avoid redundancies.

“We had planned to increase our staff by around 30 to 35 people, but we’ve completely culled that idea simply because of the hit from National Insurance,” he laments. “It’s costing us over £2m.”

Coburn is the managing director of Ulster Carpets Group, a Northern Irish company that turns over £100m a year and makes carpets for five-star hotels and cruise ships. He describes the Budget as a “seismic shock” akin to the great recession.

“I’ve been in the business 47 years. This would take us back to the financial crisis of 2008,” Coburn says. “There are similarities – it was something that happened overnight. Like many other businesses up and down the land, we have very tough decisions to make.”

This crisis is playing out in boardrooms and offices across the country, as business owners brace themselves for a sharp rise in National Insurance contributions and another inflation-busting minimum wage increase from April.

The looming surge in costs comes at a difficult time. The economy has not grown in months and remains smaller than in June, before Labour took power. Hiring was already suffering its longest ever slump before the Budget, which only worsened problems.

“The employment market is behaving as if it’s in a recession,” says Michael Stull, of recruiter Manpower. “We’re seeing a significant drop in job postings. If you look year on year, we’re down about 30-some per cent.

“Workers are also not moving. In times of recession, people will usually sit tight. You see in manpower studies that a quarter of the workers are thinking they’re going to lose their job in the next six months and won’t be able to fill another job. Those are typically what we would see in a recession.”

Such findings are fuelling concerns that this “hiring recession” is turning into an economy-wide recession. Many indicators of the economy’s health – such as surveys of businesses and corporate results – are certainly flashing red.

----Meanwhile, a new survey by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) reports that business confidence is now falling at the fastest pace in two years.

Separate polling of business owners by the British Chambers of Commerce shows three quarters of companies feel pressure to raise prices because of high wage bills.

Jane Gratton from the BCC described the figures as “just the tip of the iceberg”, warning the full impact on hiring would only “become apparent later this year”.

From April, employers face a rise in National Insurance contributions from 13.8pc to 15pc.

Meanwhile, the minimum wage will rise by 6.7pc to £12.21 an hour. It will mean the minimum wage has increased by 37pc in only four years, well ahead of inflation.

The job market gloom that signals a looming recession

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 dramatically raises the risk of developing ME/CFS

January 16, 2025

Researchers uncover the alarming overlap between COVID-19, ME/CFS, and severe long COVID symptoms, urging better diagnostics and care strategies.

A recent study published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine explored the occurrence of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Using data from the RECOVER-Adult study, a research team from the United States (U.S.) evaluated the prevalence and incidence of ME/CFS among individuals recovering from COVID-19, identified key symptoms, and compared them to uninfected individuals to better understand post-COVID health outcomes.

Background

Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is a debilitating condition that is often triggered by infections. Research shows that certain viruses, including Epstein-Barr and Ross River, may lead to ME/CFS, which is characterized by chronic fatigue, post-exertional malaise, cognitive impairment, and a lack of restful sleep.

The global emergence of COVID-19 has heightened concerns about its long-term health impacts, collectively termed post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), or long COVID. Studies have revealed fatigue as a common symptom among long COVID patients, along with cognitive issues and post-exertional malaise — symptoms that also align with a diagnosis of ME/CFS.

Despite this overlap, data quantifying ME/CFS incidence after COVID-19 remains limited. This gap in knowledge hinders a comprehensive understanding and management of ME/CFS in post-COVID patients. Furthermore, the identification of PASC symptom clusters highlights a wide spectrum of symptom burden, including one particularly severe cluster associated with ME/CFS. Investigating these associations is also essential to guide healthcare strategies, improve diagnostic criteria, and develop interventions targeting this complex, multifaceted condition.

About the Study

In the present study, the team used data from the RECOVER-Adult cohort, which was part of a longitudinal, observational investigation conducted across 83 U.S. sites. It included adults diagnosed with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and uninfected individuals as controls.

The participants were classified into three groups: those who were enrolled within a month of the infection (acute infected), those enrolled after 30 days (post-acute infected), and uninfected participants with confirmed negative SARS-CoV-2 tests. The study excluded individuals with pre-existing ME/CFS.

The researchers collected data using self-reported symptoms and comorbidities recorded during study visits every three months. A diagnosis of ME/CFS was based on the Institute of Medicine (IOM) clinical criteria, with persistent fatigue, post-exertional malaise, unrefreshing sleep, and cognitive or orthostatic symptoms lasting six months or longer as requisites for a positive diagnosis. Additionally, specific questionnaires were used to assess symptom severity, including assessments of cognitive impairment.

The study also identified four distinct symptom clusters among participants with PASC, ranging from mild to severe. Cluster 4, the most symptomatic group, included severe post-exertional malaise, fatigue, cognitive impairment, and other symptoms, aligning closely with ME/CFS. Most ME/CFS cases fell within this cluster.

Furthermore, the study used statistical analyses such as propensity score matching to minimize bias between infected and uninfected cohorts. The incidence rates of ME/CFS were calculated by comparing new diagnoses in acutely infected individuals to those in matched controls.

COVID-19 dramatically raises the risk of developing ME/CFS

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Moss Landing fire: One of the world’s largest battery factories ablaze

January 17, 2025

Hundreds were evacuated after a blaze broke out in one of the largest battery storage facilities in the world on Thursday night, local authorities have said.

Towering flames were visible from afar as a large black column of smoke rose from California’s Moss Landing Power Plant, with the fire showing no signs of easing on Thursday night.

The fire was detected at an energy storage facility in the natural gas-fueled plant, which is around 300 miles (500 km) north of the wildfires in Los Angeles. The plant contains tens of thousands of lithium batteries, which can be extremely difficult to put out if they go up in flames.

“There’s no way to sugar coat it. This is a disaster, is what it is,” Monterey County supervisor Glenn Church told KSBW-TV. But the fire is not expected to spread beyond the concrete building it is enclosed in, he added.

The plant is around 100 miles (160 km) south of San Francisco, and the blaze is unrelated to the ongoing wildfires in the southern Californian city of Los Angeles, which started around 10 days ago and have killed at least 27 people.

The cause of the fire is currently unclear, said a statement from the factory’s owners, Texas-based company Vistra Energy. Around 1,500 people were successfully evacuated from the building, according to The Mercury News.

All schools and offices in the North Monterey County Unified School District would be closed on Friday due to the fire, it was announced. Parts of Highway 1 have also been closed in both directions as crews battle the towering inferno in the plant, near Elkhorn Slough.

“Our top priority is the safety of the community and our personnel, and Vistra deeply appreciates the continued assistance of our local emergency responders,” Jenny Lyon, a spokesperson for Vistra, said in a statement.

Moss Landing fire: One of the world’s largest battery factories ablaze

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. C.P.E Bach, for 30 years, “the Berlin Bach.” Later, in his last 10 years, “the Hamburg Bach.” Approx. 6 minutes.

Flute Concerto in A Major, Wq. 168: I. Allegro

Flute Concerto in A Major, Wq. 168: I. Allegro - YouTube

This weekend’s chess diversion Approx 11 minutes.

A Knight is a Knight is a Knight!

A Knight is a Knight is a Knight! - YouTube

This weekend’s final diversion. A major US credit card red flag. Approx 4 minutes.

Credit Card Defaults jump 50%

Credit Card Defaults jump 50% - YouTube