Baltic
Dry Index. 715 -11
Brent Crude 77.25
Spot Gold 2795 US 2 Year Yield 4.18 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.419 trillion!
“I’m not strange, weird, off,
nor crazy, my reality is just different from yours.”
Donald Trump,
with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
With President Trump tossing a giant spanner into the global economic machine, starting with 25 percent tariffs Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow, with both likely to retaliate, for how much longer can the stock casinos stay divorced from the harsh economic reality of a global economy rolling over into recession, if not already in recession?
Not for much longer, I suspect. Though for today, it’s likely to be another day to dress up stocks for that all important last trading day of the month.
Look away from that soaring gold price and soaring US Federal Debt, now.
Friday also marks the last day of what has
been a rocky January for traders. Nevertheless, the three major averages are on
pace for monthly gains, with the S&P 500 up 3.2% and the Nasdaq on pace for
a 1.9% advance. The Dow outperformed in the period, on track for a 5.5% jump.
Investors will focus Friday on December
data for the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal
Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. They’ll also monitor economic releases
focused on employment costs and personal income.
Stock market today: Live updates
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise after Wall Street
gains overnight
Updated Fri, Jan 31 2025 12:38 AM EST
Asia markets mostly rose Friday after Wall
Street rose overnight as investors assessed Big Tech earnings.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 0.24%
while the broader Topix index advanced 0.21%.
The Tokyo consumer price index, excluding
fresh food, rose 2.5% year on year in January, compared with 2.4% in the
previous month. The latest reading is in line with Reuters’ estimates.
Japan’s unemployment rate for December
fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in the previous month, missing Reuters estimates of
2.5%.
Meanwhile, Japan’s retail sales for
December climbed 3.7% from the previous year, while its industrial output
figures for December grew at 0.3%, month on month, from the 2.2% drop in the
month before.
South Korean markets opened lower, after a
four-day break. The Kospi retreated
1.14% while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.36%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose for the
third consecutive day to end the day up 0.45% at 8,532.30.
The country’s producer price index
rose 3.7% through the year to the December 2024 quarter, data
released on Friday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed.
Indian stocks opened higher ahead of the
country’s Union
Budget on Saturday. The benchmark Nifty 50 gained 0.71%, while
the BSE Sensex index advanced 0.58%.
Hong Kong and Chinese markets remain
closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
indexes rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
168.61 points, or 0.38%, closing at 44,882.13. At its session highs, it had
added nearly 300 points. The S&P
500 rose 0.53% to 6,071.17, while the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.25% to end at 19,681.75.
Stocks cut gains late in the session after
U.S. President Donald Trump announced
his intentions to implement 25% tariffs U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico.
Asia
markets live updates: Aussie and Japan stocks rise, Korean stocks open lower
Europe stocks set to slip after closing at record
high; traders digest dovish ECB messaging
Updated Fri, Jan 31 2025 12:06 AM EST
European stock markets are heading for a
mixed open Friday, after a slew of earnings, data and monetary policy decisions
saw the benchmark Stoxx 600 close
at a record high in the prior session.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index was last seen
opening just above the flatline, according to IG data, but Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s MIB were on course for
slight declines.
The European
Central Bank confirmed expectations of a quarter-point interest rate
cut Thursday, bringing its main rate to 2.75%. ECB President Christine
Lagarde’s warnings
about the weakness of the euro zone economy, combined with growth
figures on Thursday showing the bloc stagnated in the fourth quarter
of 2024, reinforced market bets that the central bank will cut three more times
to reach 2% by the end of the year.
That is despite risks to euro depreciation
against the U.S. dollar from rate differentials. The Federal Reserve on
Wednesday held
rates as it highlighted inflation risks, leaving
traders questioning whether it will even enact the two rate cuts this
year previously
projected by policymakers.
Global earnings have also been in focus
this week, revealing trends such as resilience
in the luxury sector, a weakening
in oil major profits, and strong
chip demand. On Wall Street, attention has been on Tesla’s drop in automotive
revenue, Apple’s record
gross margin and Microsoft’s weaker-than-expected
guidance.
Results are now due from firms including
Swiss pharmaceuticals firm Novartis and
oil giant Exxon Mobil,
along with data releases on German inflation and U.S. personal consumption
expenditures inflation.
Investors continue to monitor commentary
on Chinese
artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek — which rocked markets on Monday
with the possibility of much cheaper AI models — and U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariff
threats.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly higher Friday, and U.S.
stock futures also rose in the early hours.
Europe
markets open to close: Stoxx 600 record, ECB rate decision
US consumer confidence deteriorates further in
January
January 29, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer
confidence weakened for a sec European stock markets are heading for a
mixed open Friday, after a slew of earnings, data and monetary policy decisions
saw the benchmark Stoxx 600 close
at a record high in the prior session.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index was last seen
opening just above the flatline, according to IG data, but Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s MIB were on course for
slight declines.
The European
Central Bank confirmed expectations of a quarter-point interest rate
cut Thursday, bringing its main rate to 2.75%. ECB President Christine
Lagarde’s warnings
about the weakness of the euro zone economy, combined with growth
figures on Thursday showing the bloc stagnated in the fourth quarter
of 2024, reinforced market bets that the central bank will cut three more times
to reach 2% by the end of the year.
That is despite risks to euro depreciation
against the U.S. dollar from rate differentials. The Federal Reserve on
Wednesday held
rates as it highlighted inflation risks, leaving
traders questioning whether it will even enact the two rate cuts this
year previously
projected by policymakers.
Global earnings have also been in focus
this week, revealing trends such as resilience
in the luxury sector, a weakening
in oil major profits, and strong
chip demand. On Wall Street, attention has been on Tesla’s drop in automotive
revenue, Apple’s record
gross margin and Microsoft’s weaker-than-expected
guidance.
Results are now due from firms including
Swiss pharmaceuticals firm Novartis and
oil giant Exxon Mobil,
along with data releases on German inflation and U.S. personal consumption
expenditures inflation.
Investors continue to monitor commentary
on Chinese
artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek — which rocked markets on Monday
with the possibility of much cheaper AI models — and U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariff
threats.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly higher Friday, and U.S.
stock futures also rose in the early hours.
ond straight month in January amid renewed
concerns about the labor market and inflation.
The Conference Board said on Tuesday its
consumer confidence index fell to 104.1 this month from an upwardly revised
109.5 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising
to 105.6 from the previously reported 104.7.
"Views of current labor market
conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of
business conditions weakened for the second month in a row," said Dana
Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. "Additionally,
references to inflation and prices continue to dominate write-in responses."
US consumer confidence deteriorates further in January
ECB Cuts Rates But Euro Zone Fails to Grow
January 30, 2025 at 6:00 PM GMT
The European Central Bank lowered
borrowing costs for a fifth time since June and while policymakers are
confident the 2% inflation target is in reach, they are concerned
about the euro zone’s stalling economy.
ECB
officials reduced the deposit rate by a quarter-point to 2.75% — as
predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg poll. They continued to describe
their current monetary-policy stance as “restrictive,” signaling more loosening
is in the pipeline, while reiterating that they’re not pre-committing to a
particular rate path.
Government collapses in the top
two economies in the region bruised confidence among business and
consumers as GDP figures today showed the euro zone unexpectedly stagnated
at the end of last year. Fourth-quarter gross domestic
product was unchanged from the previous three months, Eurostat said,
defying analyst estimates that the 20-nation bloc eked out growth of 0.1%.
Output fell 0.2% in Germany and 0.1% in France.
Concerns about the possibility of a trade war with the US also hang over
the region and President Trump’s threat
to raise tariffs on European goods remains a major source of
uncertainty.
ECB Cuts Rates But Euro Zone Fails to Grow - Bloomberg
In other news. Hmm?
So nothing to do with Uncle Scam’s gargantuan unrepayable Federal Debt and Biden weaponizing the dollar, forcing the rise of the BRICS Alliance de-dollarising, plus Trump’s tariffs likely to force more nations to join the BRICS or affiliate with it. Might the fiat dollar end up like the old fiat Italian lira?
Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London
shortage
Wait to withdraw bullion from BoE rises
sharply as fears of Trump tariffs drive shipments to US
29 January 2025
A surge in gold shipments to the US has led to a shortage of bullion in London, as traders amass an $82bn stockpile in New York over fears of Trump administration tariffs.
The wait to withdraw bullion stored in the Bank of England’s vaults has risen from a few days to between four and eight weeks, according to people familiar with the process, as the central bank struggles to keep up with demand.
“People can’t get their hands on gold because so much has been shipped to New
York, and the rest is stuck in the queue,” said one industry executive.
“Liquidity in the London market has been diminished.”
Since November’s US election, gold traders
and financial institutions have moved 393 metric tonnes into the vaults of the
Comex commodity exchange in New York, driving its inventory levels up nearly 75
per cent to 926 tonnes — the highest level since August 2022.
Total gold flows into the US could be far
higher than the Comex numbers reflect, according to market participants,
because there are likely to have been additional shipments to private vaults in
New York owned by HSBC and JPMorgan. The two banks declined to comment.
Traders say the shipments are intended to
avoid tariffs on bullion that some fear could be introduced by US President
Donald Trump.
“There is a feeling that Trump could go across
the board and impose new tariffs on raw materials coming into the US, including
gold,” said Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at Société Générale.
“There is a bit of a scramble among participants in the gold market to protect
themselves.”
The shipments are also the result of
higher prices on the futures exchange in New York than in the cash market in
London. The unusual arbitrage opportunity has incentivised traders to send the
metal across the Atlantic.
Trump has yet to spell out his trade
policy and has not specifically mentioned a duty on bullion, although he has
threatened to impose wide-ranging tariffs on US imports.
Gold prices have risen 5 per cent since
the start of the year, and are just $30 shy of their all-time record of $2,790
per troy ounce set in October.
London and New York are two main global
markets for trading, with most physical trading taking place in the UK, while
the futures market is in the US.
Many market participants compare the
current US gold rush with the situation during the Covid pandemic, when
lockdowns and uncertainty over shipments of gold triggered a surge in
stockpiling on Comex.
The BoE stores gold for third parties such
as financial institutions, as well as for other central banks and the UK
Treasury.
Governor Andrew Bailey played down the
significance of the increased waiting times to remove gold from its
vaults.
“London remains the major gold market in the
world. If you are involved in that market and want to trade or use your gold,
you really need to have it in London,” he said in response to questions from parliament’s
Treasury Committee on Wednesday.
More
Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London shortage
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Economists warn Donald Trump’s federal grant
freeze could plunge US into recession
January 29. 2025
Starting Tuesday, the White House has
paused federal grants and loans as the Trump administration reviews spending to
align with the president’s executive orders.
These directives aim to revise policies
related to transgender rights, environmental justice, and diversity, equity,
and inclusion (DEI). Federal agencies have been instructed to assess their
financial aid programs to identify those that may be impacted.
The temporary pause is intended to
reallocate federal funds in line with Donald Trump’s policy priorities.
Dr. Josh Bivens, chief economist and
research director at the Economic Policy Institute, criticized the decision,
calling it “reckless” and warning that it could lead to a deep, long-term
recession for the country.
Economists warn Donald Trump’s federal grant freeze could plunge US into recession
US Recession Warning Issued by Economist Who
Predicted 2008 Financial Crisis
January 29. 2025
A mismatch between what the U.S. economy
has been producing and what it now demands could lead the country into a
recession by mid-2025, John P. Hussman, an economist who correctly predicted
the 2000 and 2008 stock-market bubbles, has warned.
"Nobody should be surprised if the
U.S. economy is in recession by mid-year," he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday.
Why It Matters
For two years in a row now, economists
have been wary of the U.S.
economy sliding into a recession. While many feared a downturn in both
2023 and 2024, the country's real GDP—which measures the nation's growth—kept
beating economists' expectations.
Despite the resilience of the
U.S. economy in
the post-pandemic years, the chance of a
recession hitting
the country hasn't been completely staved off.
What To Know
According to Hussman, recessions have
occurred historically, "when a mismatch emerges between what the economy
has been producing and what the economy now demands," as he wrote in a
comment in December, which he shared again on X on Tuesday, adding,
"welcome to that mismatch."
The mismatches which lead to a recession,
"can be driven by shifts in consumer preferences, interest-sensitive
investment, technology, government spending, credit strains, or crises like the
pandemic," Hussman wrote on X.
"Disruptions triggered by these
mismatches take time to resolve, absent massive bailouts and deficit
spending," Hussman said. "My impression is that we may experience
more than a bit of a mismatch and disruption in the next few years."
While the U.S. economy still shows
"some surface resilience in various measures," Hussman said last
month, the country's "structural" GDP growth (demographic labor force
growth plus productivity growth) is still estimated at "just 2 percent
annually" and some leading measures of economic activity are showing signs
of deterioration.
Last month, Hussman mentioned a decline in
civilian employment growth, which had already gone negative on a year-over-year
basis then.
Civilian employment is expected to shrink
dramatically under Donald Trump's presidency. In
his first week in office, the Republican president
signed an executive order freezing hiring for federal agencies for 90 days, and
on Tuesday, his administration offered roughly 2 million federal workers
the option to resign
now but be paid until
the end of September.
Trump's goal is to reduce the federal
workforce and eliminate roles that do not fit his agenda, like those in charge
of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives.
In December, Hussman said that "more
evidence" was needed "to expect a recession with confidence." On
Tuesday, he shared an internal memo from the Trump White House budget office
saying that federal agencies must temporarily pause all activities related to
obligation or disbursement of all federal financial assistance, and other
relevant agency activities that may be implicated by the executive orders.
Hussman changed his prediction for a
potential recession to mid-2025.
More
US Recession
Warning Issued by Economist Who Predicted 2008 Financial Crisis
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Scientists
call for more research on Covid vaccine heart side effects
28
January 2025
Canadian
experts are calling for more research into heart damage linked to Covid
vaccines.
They
fear the scale of the issue remains 'under-documented' because they say studies
have been too narrow and haven't looked at the risk of these injuries months
and years after receiving the shot.
In
rare cases, mRNA shots have been shown
to cause myocarditis, inflammation
of the heart muscle, and pericarditis, inflammation of the sac-like lining
surrounding the heart.
The
side effect is rare but exactly how rare is still being debated. A major 2021 study in Israel put the rate
at one in 50,000. Other studies have come to vastly
different estimates.
But
researchers from British Columbia warn those studies have been inconsistent in
how they classify 'postvaccine' myocarditis and
pericarditis, using different timeframes to define if the conditions were
directly linked to the shots.
They
are calling for further research, noting that rates of the heart
conditions globally have increased nearly 40 percent since the vaccines
were rolled out in 2021 which needed to be explored for public health
reasons.
But
they also concede Covid
itself has been shown to cause heart damage, which confuses the issue even
more.
They
wrote in the medical journal JAMA today: 'Future studies on myocarditis
and pericarditis related to COVID-19 vaccination
should adopt broader diagnostic criteria, include both conditions as key
outcomes, and explore the combined effects of infection and vaccination on
cardiovascular health.'
CDC
data shows postvaccine myocarditis and pericarditis are two of the few well
established side effects of Covid vaccination, though the agency does not
provide a number of cases.
In
myocarditis, it's thought that the immune system may register mRNA in Covid
vaccines as a threat, leading the immune system to attack itself and cause
inflammation of the myocardium, the heart's muscle.
This
same mechanism has been linked to pericarditis, which leads to inflammation of
the pericardium, the sac surrounding the heart.
Both
conditions have been linked to viruses like the common cold and hepatitis, as
well as Covid.
While
most cases are mild, in rare instances, myocarditis can damage the heart and
make it difficult for it to pump blood, eventually leading to heart failure,
heart attack, and stroke.
The
Canadian experts responded this week to a French study published
last year,
which looked at more than 4,600 patients hospitalized for myocarditis.
A
total of 558 of those patients developed 'postvaccine myocarditis,' while 298
had it from Covid and 3,779 had 'conventional myocarditis,' meaning it was
unrelated to Covid or the vaccine.
The
researchers found patients with postvaccine myocarditis tended to be younger
and were more frequently men, and they had much milder cases than those with
conventional disease.
The
team concluded Covid and other conditions leading to myocarditis had more
long-term harms than postvaccine myocarditis.
But,
one caveat was the disease was only considered 'postvaccine' if it
developed within seven days of vaccination.
In
their response, the British Columbia researchers said the study's
seven-day window for postvaccine myocarditis is inconsistent with data from the
CDC, which suggests the condition can develop up to 40 days after vaccination.
Additionally,
the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), an arm of the US Department
of Health and Human Services, suggested in a 2022 report myocarditis
onset can start 120 days after vaccination.
More
Scientists call
for more research on Covid vaccine heart side effects
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene Hype
vs Reality and Carbon Nanotubes by IDTechEx
By NNL Digital News
Update January 29, 2025
Achieving
the strongest, thinnest, and most conductive graphene would require
manufacturers to grow a perfect single layer, which can be tricky.
IDTechEx’s portfolio of
advanced materials and critical minerals reports,
including Graphene Market
& 2D Materials Assessment and Carbon Nanotubes,
dives into some of the most lucrative and feasible applications for carbon
allotropes, including reinforced polymers and concrete from graphene, and
carbon nanotubes in Li-ion batteries.
Hype
vs reality for graphene applications
While
thin, rollable screens might represent some of the hype within the graphene
market, most electronic applications will prove difficult to achieve due to the
particular superlative qualities of graphene necessary for such uses. Perfect,
single-layer graphene in larger quantities than is currently feasible is
necessary for electronic applications such as this, and once graphene layers
become stacked, its sought-after qualities of strength and design flexibility
begin to diminish.
Growing
graphene, which can be described as carbon atoms arranged in a lattice
structure, requires a gas deposit and a copper substrate, though difficulties
arise when trying to relocate the final product. This means that most final
products grown may end up becoming destroyed in some way, with only small areas
or a few centimeters of single-layer graphene having been created, which in the
current market is still in itself a notable achievement.
Polymer
additives and graphene-enhanced concrete
Two of
graphene’s main applications that require lower-grade materials include polymer
additives and concrete, which may be more achievable applications than that of
consumer electronics and are both high-volume markets, which is where the
success for graphene in these fields has been derived.
Graphene
can be used as an additive in a number of materials to improve electrical,
thermal, or mechanical performance, making it a more favorable option than
alternatives due to its unique qualities. Industries will, therefore, be able
to use graphene to achieve higher performance levels with fewer additives.
Graphene can also improve wear resistance and increase the lifetimes of certain
industrial applications. It is also a more sustainable additive than carbon
black, for example, as graphene is not derived from petrochemical feedstocks
and can be considered green.
More
Graphene Hype vs
Reality and Carbon Nanotubes by IDTechEx - NetNewsLedger
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and what new mischief
will President Trump and his team think up for next week? Have a great weekend
everyone.
“Why,
sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Donald Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
