Baltic Dry Index. 1160 -20 Brent Crude 72.11
Spot Gold 2639 US 2 Year Yield 4.15 +0.02
When under the pretext of fraternity, the legal code imposes mutual sacrifices on the citizens, human nature is not thereby abrogated. Everyone will then direct his efforts toward contributing little to, and taking much from, the common fund of sacrifices. Now, is it the most unfortunate who gains from this struggle? Certainly not, but rather the most influential and calculating.
Frederic Bastiat.
Later today, the US jobs report for November.
With the US elections out of the way, will the Bureau of Lying Labor
Statistics start revising down their previous statistics or will they wait for
Team Trump 2.0?
Either way, the stock casinos are jumpy at the 2024 extreme highs.
Dow drops more than 200 points, S&P 500
retreats from record as big payrolls report looms: Live updates
Updated Thu, Dec 5 2024 4:13 PM EST
U.S. stocks were lower on Thursday as
investors awaited Friday’s big jobs report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped
248.33 points, or 0.55%, to close at 44,765.71. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.18% to end at 19,700.26. The S&P
500 dropped 0.19%, settling at 6,075.11.
The three major averages saw solid gains
in the previous session, posting record closes.
“The problem you have is that valuations
are stretched across the board,” said Keeley Teton portfolio manager Brian
Leonard in an interview with CNBC. “You’re sitting at records, but there’s not
a lot of enthusiasm or euphoria. Historically, when the records happened, the
valuations were more reasonable.”
Traders on Thursday looked ahead to key
U.S. employment data on Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast the
U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in November.
This labor report could inform the Federal
Reserve’s rate decision at its policy meeting later this month. On Wednesday,
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy is strong enough for the
central bank to move carefully on rate cuts.
“The labor market is better, and the
downside risks appear to be less in the labor market,” he said. “Growth is
definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation is coming [out] a little
higher. So, the good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as
we try to find neutral.”
Bitcoin traded marginally lower, falling
below $100,000 after breaking above it for
the first time late Wednesday. That overnight move briefly
led crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase higher. However,
these names had also given up those advances, with MicroStrategy dropping 4.8%
and Coinbase shedding 3.1%.
Stock market news for Dec. 5, 2024
Stock futures are little changed ahead of key jobs
report: Live updates
Updated Fri, Dec 6 2024 12:34 AM EST
Stock futures were near the flatline
Friday morning as investors awaited key payrolls data.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped
42 points, or 0.1%. S&P
500 futures shed 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were
flat.
Several companies posted strong
quarterly results after the closing bell and saw their shares take
off. Ulta Beauty jumped
12% after posting higher-than-expected earnings
and revenue for the fiscal third quarter. GitLab and Docusign gained 7% and 14%,
respectively, on quarterly beats.
Investors are now turning to Friday’s jobs
report, anticipating it will provide a clearer picture into the health of the
domestic labor market and shape the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at its Dec.
17-18 policy meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that nonfarm
payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, which would mark a huge
hike from October’s gain of just 12,000.
“With market expectations for solid
rebound in payrolls, an even stronger print above expectations could force the
Fed to think twice about the pace of rate cutting next year,” said Charlie
Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.
Given the continued strength of the U.S.
economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has
previously said that policymakers don’t need to be “in a hurry to
lower rates.”
Stocks closed Thursday’s session
lower, retreating
from records the major indexes hit in the previous session. Week to
date, the S&P 500 is
up 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite has gained 2.5%. The 30-stock Dow is down 0.3% in the
period.
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news, OPEC delays, more layoffs, the EU in decline.
OPEC+ members to delay oil production increases
Published Thu, Dec 5 2024 7:34 AM EST Updated
Thu, Dec 5 2024 8:42 AM EST
The OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance has
postponed plans to unwind several formal and voluntary crude production cuts
into 2026 amid a lukewarm outlook for global demand, according to delegate
sources and internal documents.
The sources could only speak anonymously
because of the sensitivity of talks.
Under its formal output strategy, the
broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725
million barrels per day (bpd) until Dec. 31, 2026, after previously only
applying this quota throughout 2025.
Eight OPEC+ members will now extend their
2.2 million-barrel-per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter,
and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September
2026. Several OPEC+ members will also be postponing the unwinding of a second
1.7-million-barrels-per-day cut until the end of next year. This latter
production decline was previously only set to last through 2025.
Despite these sets of production trims and
ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global
oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under
pressure from a tepid demand outlook. The Ice Brent contract with February
expiry and front-month January Nymex WTI futures were both trading flat at 1:31
p.m. London time, compared with their Wednesday close prices.
Adding to geopolitical uncertainty is the
imminent White House return of President-elect Donald Trump — who has led his
electoral campaign on pledges to further unleash the output of the world’s
largest oil producer.
“While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay
the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the
group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could
easily find itself back in a similar position in three months’ time,” analysts
at Capital Economics said in a note.
“In our view, the fundamentals for oil
prices remain weak, and the risks to prices are skewed to the downside.”
OPEC+ members to delay oil production increases
Airbus Cuts Over 2,000 Jobs in Space and Defense
Divisions
5 December 2024
The aerospace industry has been grappling
with challenges since the pandemic.
Supply chain issues, rising costs, and
delays have left even the biggest players looking for ways to streamline
operations.
Airbus, one of the largest names in the
industry, is now taking drastic steps in its defense and space divisions to
stay competitive, according to Ziare.
The European aerospace giant plans to lay
off 2,043 employees by mid-2026, according to sources speaking to Reuters.
The cuts will affect senior management and
other roles across Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and smaller
operations in other countries.
Germany will see the largest reduction,
with 689 positions to be eliminated. France and the U.K. follow with 540 and
477 layoffs, respectively.
Headquaters Also Affected
The company first announced plans for cuts
in October, citing losses in its space systems division and delays in satellite
projects like OneSat.
Rising defense costs have also played a
role. Airbus formally presented the layoff plan to labor unions on Wednesday
after a year-long review of its efficiency in defense and space operations.
While the space systems division will bear
the brunt of the layoffs, other parts of the company, including its
headquarters, will also be affected.
Airbus representatives declined to comment
on the specifics of the cuts.
CEO Guillaume Faury has previously stated
that Airbus aims to bolster its defense and space divisions in the future,
particularly its satellite operations. But for now, rising costs have forced
the company to reduce its workforce.
Airbus’s broader business has also faced
setbacks this year. Engine shortages and lingering supply chain disruptions
have slowed aircraft deliveries.
The company revised its target for 2023,
reducing planned deliveries from 800 to 770 planes. It also pushed back its
goal of producing 75 narrow-body planes per month from 2026 to 2027.
Airbus Cuts Over 2,000 Jobs in Space and Defense Divisions
France's toppled government adds to the European
Union's bigger political problems
Updated December 5, 2024 5:29 PM ET
LONDON — French President Emmanuel Macron
has vowed to see out his current term until 2027 and name a new government in
the next few days, amid a spiraling political criss that has threatened to
engulf his leadership.
Speaking Thursday at his official
residence in the Elysée Palace in Paris, Macron thanked the outgoing Prime
Minister Michel Barnier for his "dedication," after a majority of
National Assembly lawmakers voted to remove Barnier Wednesday, forcing him to
resign. Macron accused the opposition parties of choosing "chaos,"
saying they "don't want to build, they want to dismantle."
The political instability in France — and
simultaneously in Germany, where the governing coalition collapsed a month ago — could
have wide-ranging consequences for European security, as well as trans-Atlantic
relations, analysts tell NPR, just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump
enters the White House. With a war still raging on Europe's doorstep, caretaker
governments will now control two of the continent's most powerful economies.
President Macron had appointed Barnier to
head the government only three months ago, after snap elections this summer
left no party with a majority in a deeply divided parliament.
On Wednesday, legislators from opposing
extreme flanks came together in a vote of no confidence against Barnier, over
his proposed 2025 national budget. Now, with the government toppled and no
approved budget, Macron knows he must act quickly, according to Mathieu
Gallard, a pollster at Ipsos.
"Regarding the adoption of the
budget, everything is stalled, nothing can move in the parliament before we
have a new government," says Gallard. "It's really uncharted
territory, since we have never been in this kind of situation."
The main challenge stems from the fact
that none of the political groups in the French parliament have a clear
majority, nor do any of them want to negotiate or compromise with one another,
Gallard says, while the electoral system means there is very little incentive
for that to change, even if Macron calls a fresh national vote in 10 months,
which is as soon as the constitution allows after the last election.
----Meanwhile,
in neighboring Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost support from his previous
political coalition partners, over economic and budget policies as well. Now
he's limping along to a confidence vote later this month and federal
elections in February.
All this adds up to something that
European leaders must soon take seriously, says Tanja Börzel, a political
science professor at the Freie Universität, or Free University, in Berlin.
While she doesn't believe the European Union "faces an existential threat,
yet," she says, "it's a major challenge."
And the timing of these twin political
crises is particularly unfortunate, given that polarization and societal
distrust of government has been rising on both sides of the Atlantic, Börzel
says. "These two countries have always, very often, taken the lead in
helping Europe to speak one voice. I think that's what is required more than
ever with Trump taking over the presidency in the U.S."
More
France's toppled government adds to Europe's larger political problems : NPR
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Business
leaders fear recession, labour shortages, World Economic Forum says
5
December 2024
LONDON
(Reuters) - Business leaders globally are worried about the risk of recession,
labour shortages and rising inflation, despite some signs of improvement in
economic conditions, a World Economic Forum survey said on Thursday.
Extreme
weather events are an increasing concern, following a year of record
temperatures, severe flooding and wildfires, including in major economies such
as Brazil, Germany, Indonesia and the United States, according to the survey of
more than 11,000 business leaders from G20 countries.
The
WEF Executive Opinion Survey shows "a significant level of anxiety among
business leaders in G20 countries", said Carolina Klint, chief commercial
officer, Europe at Marsh McLennan, a WEF partner, along with Zurich Insurance.
Economic
downturn is seen as the top risk for business leaders over the next two years,
followed by labour and/or talent shortages and then inflation. Poverty and
inequality ranked fourth, and extreme weather events came in fifth, the survey
showed.
In
individual country surveys, concerns about adverse risks from technology,
including artificial intelligence, featured highly, coming in as the top risk
for doing business in Indonesia, number three in the United States and number
four in Britain, the survey showed.
Business leaders
fear recession, labour shortages, World Economic Forum says
'We're
in a recession,' says former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz
4
December 2024
Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says Canada
is in a recession , arguing
the economy’s weakness has been masked by strong population growth.
“I
would say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one,” said
Poloz, now special adviser to Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, during a
webinar on Tuesday. “A technical one is a superficial definition that you have
two quarters of negative growth in a row, and we haven’t had that, but the
reason is because we’ve been swamped with new immigrants who buy the basics in
life, and that boosts our consumption enough.”
On
Friday, Statistics Canada reported that gross domestic product per capita had
declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, falling by 0.4 per cent in the
third quarter. This measure has been negative in eight out of the last nine
quarters. Growth in the Canadian economy this year
came in above forecasts at 2.1 per cent for the second quarter, before dropping
to one per cent in the third quarter.
“We
did have one pop up in the previous quarter, but that was a pretty minor
thing,” said Poloz. “And the only good news, if I caught that, is government
spending. That’s not the sort of thing to build your recovery on.”
Poloz
said the Canadian consumer has suffered a 30 per cent increase in the cost of living following
the recent inflationary period, which has reduced spending. Additionally,
inflation has fallen faster than was predicted, which Poloz argues only happens
during a recession.
The
recent threat by incoming U.S. president Donald Trump to slap a 25
per cent tariff on all imports from Canada also remains a source of uncertainty
for Canada’s growth going into next year.
A
report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said that if tariffs on Canada and
Mexico were implemented on inauguration day, it would lead to a 2.6 per cent
hit to Canada’s GDP and a 1.6 per cent decline to the U.S. economy.
Poloz
said the tariffs could also pose an inflationary risk for central banks, which
would put them in an “awkward place” as they would have to keep rates higher
for longer, just as the economy is slowing.
“There’s
the presentation to the (central) bank, the economy is slowing, but inflation
is picking up because of tariffs,” Poloz said. “What do you do? I think most
central banks are going to say, I gotta be worried about the inflation part.
And so that’s a recipe for deeper stagflation.”
The
federal government recently introduced a two-month pause on the goods and
services tax for a select number of goods, in an effort to help stimulate
consumer spending. Poloz said such a measure could help Canadians with their
bills in the short term, but will do little to improve long-term economic
growth.
“There
are so many other ways to boost the economy that would provide a longer lasting
effect,” he said. “So giving away these things is kind of like giving somebody
a fish instead of giving them a fishing rod, right?”
'We're in a recession,' says former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Long Covid: Majority of young people recover from condition within two
years, study finds
4 December 2024
Most young people who
were confirmed to have long Covid three months after
a positive test recover within two years, the largest study of its kind has
found.
The Children and young
people with Long Covid (CLoCK) study found that 70 per cent of children aged
between 11 and 17 had recovered within a 24-month period.
Researchers at University College London (UCL) asked more than 12,600 young people
about their health three, six, 12 and 24 months after taking a PCR test for
Covid between September 2020 and March 2021. They were also asked to recall
their symptoms at the time of taking the test.
For the study, the team
defined long Covid as a person having more than one symptom, such as tiredness,
trouble sleeping or headaches, alongside problems with either mobility,
self-care, doing usual activities, pain, or feeling very worried or sad.
Of those who
participated, there were 943 who had tested positive when first approached and
who provided answers at every time point.
Among this group, 233
were deemed to have long Covid three months after initially testing positive.
At six months, 135
continued to meet the research definition of long
Covid, decreasing to 94 at 12 months.
This reduced to 68 two
years after the initial positive test, meaning that 165 of the 233 young people
(70 per cent) who had long Covid had recovered.
The study’s chief
investigator and first author, Professor Sir Terence Stephenson, said: “Our
findings show that for teenagers who fulfilled our research definition of long
Covid three months after a positive test for the Covid virus, the majority have
recovered after two years.
“This is good news but we
intend to do further research to try to better understand why 68 teenagers had
not recovered.”
More
Long Covid: Majority of young people recover from condition within two
years, study finds
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
US-China crack
organic solar cell code to hit toxin-free 20% power efficiency
Wed,
December 4, 2024 at 10:22 AM GMT
A new
design principle has been identified that could eliminate the use of toxic
chemicals in solar cell manufacturing.
The
standard manufacturing process of organic cells involves toxic solvents. This
environmental concern has hindered the widespread adoption of organic solar
cells.
Researchers
at Linköping University (LiU) have revealed a new design principle for
eco-friendly, high-efficiency organic solar cells.
To
unlock this potential, they delved into the molecular shapes and interactions
within organic solar cells. This led to the identification of a design
principle that allows for the use of environmentally friendly solvents.
“To
realise mass production of organic solar cells, with printed technologies for
example, on a large scale, we need to find methods that don’t use toxins.
Otherwise, it’s not good for the environment or for those working in the
factories,” said Feng Gao, professor of optoelectronics at LiU.
Use of
toxic chemicals in organic solar cells
Organic
solar cells are gaining popularity due to their cost-effectiveness, ease of
manufacturing, and flexibility.
As
compared to silicon solar cells, they are made from electrically conductive
plastics or organic electronics. This allows these flexible, lightweight cells
to be integrated into various surfaces, such as windows, walls, and clothing.
Over
the years, organic solar cells have significantly improved in efficiency, now
converting around 20% of sunlight into electricity.
These
organic solar cells are typically manufactured by mixing chemicals and applying
them to a surface. The chemicals then evaporate, leaving behind the solar cell
material.
Unfortunately,
these chemicals often contain harmful substances, raising environmental
concerns. Some of the toxic
chemicals used are chlorobenzene, chloroform, and dichloroethane.
These
solvents are used for dissolving the organic materials that make up the solar
cell.
To
address this challenge, the LiU team partnered with researchers in China and
the US.
They
identified a range of non-toxic solvents that could be used to manufacture
efficient organic solar cells.
“To
choose the right solvent, it’s important to understand the entire solar cell
manufacturing process. This includes knowing the initial structures of the
solution, observing the dynamic processes during evaporation and checking the
final structure of the solar cell film,” explained Rui Zhang, lead author and
researcher at the Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology at LiU.
More
US-China crack
organic solar cell code to hit toxin-free 20% power efficiency
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and trouble in
Europe, South Korea and a strange murder in NYC. Is the Biden top in the stock
casinos before the Trump tariff wars bring in the next global depression? I don’t
know either, but I’m not willing to bet against Warren Buffett in the stock
casinos. Have a great weekend everyone.
Everyone
wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live
at the expense of everyone.
Frederic
Bastiat.
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