Tuesday, 10 December 2024

Syria Confusion. China Busts Nvidia? Is 2024 The Top?

Baltic Dry Index. 1168 +01          Brent Crude  71.75

Spot Gold 2668                US 2 Year Yield 4.13  +0.03

People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.

Isaac Asimov.

In the stock casinos, more worry and wobble. What if Warren Buffett is right?

What happens next in Syria?  Saudi Arabia?

What if VW, Stellantis and Nissan go bust?

What if the deep state sabotage Trump 2.0?

What if 2024 was the top?

China stocks rise amid broader gains in Asia markets as Beijing’s stimulus pledge boosts sentiment

Updated Tue, Dec 10 2024 12:18 AM EST

China stocks rose Tuesday amid broader gains in Asia-Pacific markets, following losses on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pull back from record highs ahead of key inflation data.

Sentiment was boosted by Beijing’s announcement of “more proactive” fiscal measures and “moderately” looser monetary policy next year as part of efforts to boost domestic consumption.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index jumped 1.9% in trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 0.9%.

News of the measures, which came from an official readout late Monday after mainland China market had closed, had sent the Hang Seng index nearly 3% higher that evening.

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi gained over 2.2% and led gains in the region, while the small-cap Kosdaq surged up 5.3% as investors continued to monitor the country’s political situation.

South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that the leader of the main opposition party, Lee Jae Myung, said his party would pass a downsized budget bill for next year through a plenary session later in the day.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.36% lower to finish at 8,393, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark rate at 4.35% for the 10th consecutive time.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.52%, while the Topix gained 0.37%.

In the U.S. on Monday, tech shares struggled and investors prepared for key inflation data that will be released this week.

The broad market S&P 500 fell 0.61% to close at 6,052.85, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.62% to end at 19,736.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 240.59 points, or 0.54%, settling at 44,401.93.

AI bellwether Nvidia saw its shares dropped about 2.6% after a Chinese regulator announced that it was investigating the artificial intelligence chip behemoth for potentially violating the country’s antitrust law.

Advanced Micro Devices, another chipmaker, closed 5.6% lower, while tech giants Meta Platforms and Netflix also struggled.

Bitcoin prices also retreated after topping $100,000 for the first time ever last week, a sign that investors might be souring on risk assets.

Asia markets live: Australia rate decision, China stimulus plans

European markets set to open lower as positive sentiment vanishes

Updated Tue, Dec 10 2024 12:29 AM EST

European markets are expected to open in negative territory Tuesday, retreating from yesterday’s mostly positive trading session, as traders gear up for the latest U.S. inflation report this week.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 38 points lower at 8,315, Germany’s DAX down 76 points at 20,274, France’s CAC down 31 points at 7,454 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 139 points at 34,429, according to data from IG.

There are no major earnings releases in Europe Tuesday. Data releases include final German inflation data for November.

Traders are looking ahead to U.S. inflation data due Wednesday. The consumer price index data will likely influence how the Federal Reserve proceeds on interest rates at its Dec. 17-18 meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast that headline inflation rose 0.3% in November and 2.7% over the prior 12 months.

U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline on Monday evening, after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back from record highs in yesterday’s trading session.

Overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, China stocks rose Tuesday amid broader gains among other regional markets.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

In other news, a new warning or the start of the new deep state campaign to undermine Trump 2.0?

America’s economy ‘risks massive Trump slump’

US GDP could contract by as much as two to three percentage points, according to NIESR

09 December 2024 8:00am GMT

Donald Trump risks tipping the US into recession if he follows through with the promises made on the campaign trail, a top economist has warned.

Paul Mortimer-Lee of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the “ill-considered, rushed and damaging” combination of tariffs, the mass expulsion of illegal immigrants, tax cuts and spending efficiencies was “likely to tip the US economy into recession.”

Mr Mortimer-Lee said: “In a worst-case scenario, where immigrant expulsions are massive, tariff increases hit straight away and retaliation is swift and effective, GDP could contract by two to three percentage points.”

Such an outcome would mark a massive slump when compared to the strong growth enjoyed by the US this year. NIESR estimates America’s economy will expand by 2.8pc in 2024.

It would also represent a significant challenge to Mr Trump who ran much of his campaign on a promise to boost the economy and tackle the cost of living crisis that many citizens blamed on President Joe Biden.

A recession in the world’s largest economy would send shockwaves across the globe, with China, Mexico, Canada and Germany all likely to struggle given their deep economic links to the US.

Mr Trump campaigned on a promise to impose steep tariffs on imports, including of up to 60pc on China, to tighten the US’s borders and cut taxes while slashing government spending. He has stepped up his rhetoric around tariffs since his election victory last month and appointed Elon Musk to the newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The billionaire has said he hopes to cut $2 trillion of spending.

Mr Mortimer-Lee said Mr Trump’s immigration policies would be the most damaging, given the important role this group plays in the US economy.

He said: “Expelling five million workers could reduce GDP by close to 2.5pc. Since expulsions would continue for years, the reduced rate of growth in GDP would be persistent – not a one-off shock like tariffs.”

Shortages of workers, particularly in migrant-heavy industries such as agriculture, retail and construction, are likely to send wages spiralling and stoke inflation. Mr Mortimer-Lee also warned that tariffs would also stoke inflation.

The Federal Reserve would usually be expected to raise interest rates to try to rein in price rises but there is a risk that the future president could successfully pressure officials into keeping borrowing costs low.

“How large the eventual inflation effect and how long it lasts will depend on whether Mr Trump succeeds in bending the Federal Reserve to his will, which would mean a softer monetary policy stance,” Mr Mortimer-Lee said. “Contrary to the consensus, I take the view that he will be successful, so that the initial shocks to prices from his other policies will feed through to second and third-round effects.

“As a result, inflation could rise to 7pc or 8pc by 2027, especially if an economic downturn were met by an outsized money-financed fiscal deficit, which is a very real prospect.”

More

America’s economy ‘risks massive Trump slump’

Fear of Trump tariffs is causing Americans to stockpile toilet paper, medicine, and food before prices rise

Updated Mon, December 9, 2024 at 8:56 PM GMT 

  • One in three consumers plans to spend more money this holiday season, and the top motivation is fear of higher tariffs under Trump, according to a survey by CreditCards.com. Nearly a third also expect to take on more debt to make their purchases.

Americans are bracing for higher prices when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House as he has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs.

But consumers aren't waiting for products to get more expensive. Instead, they're loading up on items this holiday-shopping season, according to a recent survey from CreditCards.com.

One in three Americans plans to buy more, and fear of higher tariffs is the leading motivator, with 39% citing them for stepped-up purchases. Other reasons include worries about potential supply-chain disruptions, "societal instability," recession, and another pandemic. Meanwhile, 22% plan to make a large purchase, such as electronics or home appliances.

"With the possibility of tariffs hanging over cheap goods from countries like China and Mexico, it’s no surprise that some consumers are pondering big-ticket purchases before President-elect Trump takes office," John Egan, expert contributor at CreditCards.com focusing on credit cards, insurance, and personal finance, said in a statement last week. "Although manufacturers pay the tariffs, these extra costs often get passed along to shoppers in the form of higher prices."

Americans are also buying everyday items, and the survey found 34% are stockpiling essentials. Toilet paper is at the top of the shopping list with 77% saying they are stocking up on it. That's followed by nonperishable food (76%), medical supplies (58%), and over-the-counter medications (54%).

But inflation in recent years has already boosted prices, so all this added spending means consumers have to find extra dollars somewhere. As a result, 30% said they are likely to go into or worsen debt to buy things now.

More

Fear of Trump tariffs is causing Americans to stockpile toilet paper, medicine, and food before prices rise

China’s November imports post surprise drop; sharpest decline in 14 months

Published Mon, Dec 9 2024 10:26 PM EST

China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in November, data from the country’s customs authority showed Tuesday, fueling worries over the health of the Chinese economy as consumer demand remains sluggish and tariff threats loom.

Import data surprised with a decline of 3.9%, marking the sharpest fall since September 2023. Analysts had expected imports to grow 0.3%.

Exports rose 6.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year ago, sharply lower than the 12.7% growth in the previous month. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected exports to climb 8.5% from a year ago in November.

The exports slowdown in November does not “mark an end of China’s recent export boom,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Tuesday, adding that while U.S. tariffs could reduce export volumes by around 3%, “they may not be felt until the middle of next year.”

In the short run, the tariff threats “may even spur exports as U.S. firms ramp up orders” for Chinese goods, Huang added.

Meanwhile, import volumes may also recover in the short term, as accelerated fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities, Huang said.

China’s exports to all its major trading partners — the U.S., European Union and Association of Southeast Asian Nations — all rose in November from a year earlier.

Exports to ASEAN countries increased the most, up by nearly 15%, according to CNBC’s analysis of the official data. Imports from its largest trading partner ASEAN fell 3%.

China’s exports to the U.S. increased 8% on year while imports fell over 11%. The country’s exports to European Union jumped 7.2% while imports shrank 6.5% from a year ago.

China’s exports to Russia were down by 2.5% while imports dropped by 6.5%.

The volume of China’s rare earths exports rose nearly 5% from a year ago in November, shipping out 4,416 metric tons of the minerals, used in products ranging from electric vehicles to consumer electronics. Cumulative exports in the months through November this year rose 6.6% from a year ago.

The country’s rare earths imports declined over 20% from the year before to 11,327 tons.

The country announced a new policy in July to step up its oversight of the domestic rare earths industry over national security concerns.

China’s steel exports last month surged by 16% from a year ago to 9.28 million tons. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to cross 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.

More

China's imports post sharpest decline in 14 month in November

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Job vacancies collapse as Budget tax raid puts firms off hiring, survey shows

Monday 09 December 2024 6:00 am  |  Updated:  Friday 06 December 2024 3:34 pm

The number of job vacancies in the UK fell at its fastest pace in over four years last month as firms held off hiring due to the government’s Budget tax hikes, a new survey suggests.

The latest report on jobs from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) showed an “accelerated decline” in the number of people placed in permanent roles by recruiters.

The survey also showed that the number of job openings fell at the sharpest pace since August 2020 as demand for staff dried up following the Budget.

In October’s Budget Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased employers’ national insurance by 1.2 per cent, while cutting the threshold at which employers have to start paying the levy. She also announced that the minimum wage would increase by 6.7 per cent.

Many businesses, particularly in the retail and hospitality sector, have warned that they will have to either cut jobs or raise prices in order to deal with the extra costs imposed by the Budget.

A survey released by the Bank of England on Thursday suggested that over half (54 per cent) of firms were planning to cut staff as a result of the national insurance hike. Analysis by Deutsche Bank suggests that as many as 100,000 jobs could be lost.

“It should be a surprise to no-one that firms took the time to re-assess their hiring needs in November after a tough Budget for employers,” Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC said.

The survey also showed that wage pressures remained relatively muted in November, remaining at the 44-month low hit in October.

“While skilled candidates were often reported to be able to command higher salaries, pay growth tended to be limited by higher candidate availability and reduced demand for staff,” the survey said.

Jon Holt, chief executive at KPMG UK, said this trend would be “encouraging” for rate-setters at the Bank of England.

“The prospect of further rate cuts through 2025, alongside the Government’s investment plans, both point to improved growth in the near term,” he said.

Job vacancies collapse after Budget tax raid, survey shows

Airbus to Cut Nearly 500 UK Jobs Amid Falling Profits and Global Restructuring

8 December 2024

Airbus, the European aerospace giant, has announced plans to cut 477 jobs in the UK as part of a global restructuring effort following a 22% drop in profits. The job reductions are part of a broader plan to reduce over 2,000 positions worldwide, with the company citing increased costs and supply chain bottlenecks as significant challenges.

Airbus reported a 7% increase in sales to £44.5 billion ($54.6 billion) in the nine months to 30 October. However, its profits fell by 22% to £1.8 billion ($2.2 billion) during the same period. According to Airbus, rising costs have squeezed its already thin profit margins, with the company admitting it is struggling to meet the growing demand for its aircraft due to supply chain disruptions. A spokesperson for Airbus stated, "We have more demand than the ability to supply and are working to address bottlenecks in our operations."

Details of the Job Cuts

The job cuts, amounting to 5% of Airbus's global workforce, will primarily impact its space division, followed by its headquarters and air power departments. Globally, 1,128 jobs will be cut from the space division, 618 from the company's headquarters, 250 from the air power department, and 47 from its connected intelligence division. Geographically, the reductions include 689 positions in Germany, 540 in France, 477 in the UK, 303 in Spain, and 34 in other regions.

Airbus has emphasised that the cuts are part of a strategy to reduce its fixed cost base and will not involve compulsory redundancies. The company clarified that "almost all of the positions affected do not relate to specific projects or programmes" and pledged to work with unions to minimise the impact.

The loss of 477 jobs in the UK is a significant blow to the country's aerospace industry. Airbus is a major employer in the UK, with its wing manufacturing facility in Broughton and other operations supporting thousands of direct and indirect jobs. This announcement follows previous cuts in 2020, when the company reduced its UK workforce by 1,700 during the pandemic. At the time, the Unite union described the decision as "another act of industrial vandalism" against the UK aerospace sector.

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Airbus to Cut Nearly 500 UK Jobs Amid Falling Profits and Global Restructuring

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

What Nigerians should know about new COVID-19 strain spreading rapidly across world

8 December 2024

As the world continues to battle the constantly evolving COVID-19 pandemic, new variants of the virus are emerging, each presenting unique challenges.

One such variant is the recently identified XEC strain, which has raised concerns due to its potential impact on global public health.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

COVID-19 can cause mild to severe respiratory illness, including death.

The first known case was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been several prominent variants, including Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron and XEC.

The XEC strain was first detected in Germany in June 2024 and has since spread to 27 countries.

It has been found in several countries across Europe, Asia, and North America, with at least 600 confirmed cases in the past four months.

Countries affected include Germany, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Canada, China, Norway, Poland, and the Netherlands.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has stated that the XEC strain is a subvariant of the Omicron lineage of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Like other variants, the XEC strain has raised concerns due to its potential for increased transmissibility and partial immune escape.

This means that individuals who have been infected with previous strains or who have been vaccinated may still be at risk of reinfection.

However, vaccines remain the most effective defence against severe illness.

The WHO further explained that the XEC strain, like other COVID-19 variants, primarily spreads through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.

According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the XEC strain is a combination of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants.

Surveillance data from the UKHSA indicates that the admission rate for patients testing positive for all strains rose to 4.5 per 100,000 people in the week leading up to October 6, 2024.

Experts believe the XEC strain is more transmissible due to its numerous mutations. Symptoms of this strain are similar to those of other COVID-19 variants, including fatigue, headaches, sore throat, and high temperatures.

More

What Nigerians should know about new COVID-19 strain spreading rapidly across world

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

UK and Saudi Arabia to collaborate on production of new ‘super material’

9 December 2024

The UK and Saudi Arabia are to collaborate on producing a new super-light, super-strong material under a deal announced on the eve of the Prime Minister’s first visit to the oil-rich state.

Sir Keir Starmer will fly into Saudi Arabia on Monday for his first face-to-face meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, its prime minister, after talks with the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to drum up investment in Britain.

He will try to persuade the Saudi crown prince to pump more cash into the UK economy after the Budget dealt a blow to his growth plan.

It came as Graphene Innovation Manchester, a British company specialising in wonder material graphene announced a deal with the Saudis to use its product in creating a new hybrid carbon fibre that will make it up to three times stronger than before.

The advanced material is considered environmentally sustainable and will be applied to cars, planes and trains to make them lighter and therefore more energy efficient. It will also be used in Saudi Arabia’s Neom project, which is aiming to build a linear city stretching more than 100 miles long.

The tie-up between the Manchester-based company and the Saudis is expected to generate £250 million of investment into a research and innovation hub in Greater Manchester and more than 1,000 skilled jobs could be created as a result of the deal.

Sir Keir said: “Every region and nation in the United Kingdom should feel the impact of our Plan for Change, which is why I am in the Gulf forging closer ties and strengthening relationships that support our growth mission in every corner of the country.

---- Sir Keir also hopes to build on the close ties between Newcastle and Saudi Arabia, which owns the English city’s football club.

Britain and the Saudis will work to set up an international institute for clean hydrogen, backed by a consortium of universities, including Newcastle University.

Kim McGuinness, Mayor of the North East, will join the Prime Minister in Saudi Arabia on Monday for the talks which follow his visit to the Emirates.

More

UK and Saudi Arabia to collaborate on production of new ‘super material’

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.

Albert Einstein.


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