Baltic
Dry Index. 1053 -18 Brent Crude 73.22
Spot Gold 2647 US 2 Year Yield 4.25 unch.
When growth is slower than expected, stocks go down. When inflation is higher than expected, bonds go down. When inflation's lower than expected, bonds go up.
Ray Dalio.
It is Fed D-Day. To cut or not to cut and shatter the US stock casinos? Chairman Powell and the gang wouldn’t do that would they?
In Japan, the stock casino is betting on a Honda rescue for Nissan, probably orchestrated behind the scenes by Japan’s government.
But, is it all over for most of the auto manufacturing industries? A spent out public don’t want unsafe EVs at any price and seem unable to afford today’s ICE offerings from VW, GM, Ford, Stellantis and Honda. Only Toyota and BYD and a few other China based auto manufacturers seem priced to the market reality.
But if the golden age of autos is over, a major global recession, or worse, lies directly ahead.
Asia markets trading mixed following
losses on Wall Street; Japan trade data in focus
Updated Wed, Dec 18 2024 12:48 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets are trading
mixed on Wednesday, following losses on Wall Street and ahead of the Federal
Reserve’s rate decision.
Investors in Asia assessed trade
data out of Japan ahead of a Bank of Japan rate decision this week.
The country’s exports grew 3.8% in
November year-on-year, beating expectations of a 2.8% increase by economists
polled by Reuters. Meanwhile, imports fell by 3.8%, coming in far below
expectations of a 1% expansion.
The numbers put Japan’s trade
balance at a deficit of 117.6 billion yen ($765.2 million), higher than
expectations for a deficit of 688.9 billion yen.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 0.4% in
trading, while the broad-based Topix was down 0.05%.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 1%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq was 0.3% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was traded
down 0.06% to end the day at 8,309.4.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ticked up
0.6%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was 0.5% higher.
The People’s Bank of China will set
its loan prime rates on Friday. The one-year LPR influences corporate loans and
most household loans in China, while the five-year LPR serves as a benchmark
for mortgage rates.
Markets are awaiting a rate decision
from the Federal Reserve that will come Wednesday in the U.S. Traders are
overwhelmingly expecting the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point, according to
the CME’s FedWatch tool.
Trading on Tuesday in the U.S. saw
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average tumble for a ninth straight day, its first since 1978. The
30-stock average slid 267.58 points, or 0.61%, to settle at 43,449.90.
The S&P 500 lost 0.39% and
closed at 6,050.61, while the Nasdaq
Composite dropped 0.32% to end at 20,109.06.
The Dow’s losing streak began the
day after it closed above 45,000 for the first time ever earlier in the month
and it comes at a time when the broader market is doing well.
The S&P 500 hit a new high on
Dec. 6 and sits less than 1% from that level. The Nasdaq hit a record on
Monday.
Driving the Dow’s losses has been a
rotation into technology stocks and out of some of the more old-economy stocks
that gained in November following Donald
Trump’s historic election win.
Asia markets live: Japan trade data in focus
European markets head for lower open ahead of Fed
decision
Updated Wed, Dec 18 2024 12:41 AM EST
European stocks are expected to open lower
Wednesday as investors await the latest monetary policy decision by the U.S.
Federal Reserve.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 8 points lower at 8,191, Germany’s DAX down 48 points at
20,202, France’s CAC down
10 points at 7,353 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 100 points at
34,258, according to data from IG.
Traders are pricing in a 95% chance of a
quarter-point cut Wednesday, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.
Investors will also be paying close
attention to Fed policymakers’ Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair
Jerome Powell’s press conference, seeking clues about what might happen in the
months ahead.
The central bank is widely expected to
temper runaway expectations of more rate cuts in the approaching year,
particularly as inflation remains stubborn.
Data releases on Wednesday include the
latest U.K. inflation rate. The data comes ahead of the Bank of England’s
monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with markets so far pricing in only a slim
chance of a final rate cut of the year.
Asia-Pacific
markets were trading mixed overnight while U.S.
stock futures were little changed.
European
markets live updates: Fed decision ahead, data and stocks
Stock futures are little changed after Dow posts
nine-day losing streak; traders await Fed decision: Live updates
Updated Wed, Dec 18 2024 8:34 PM EST
U.S. stock futures were little changed on
Tuesday night as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s December
interest rate decision.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
57 points, or 0.1%. S&P
500 futures added less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched
lower by less than 0.1%.
The Dow slipped 267.58 points, or
0.61%, during the regular session for a nine-day losing streak, its longest
since 1978. The S&P 500 slipped
0.39%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite dropped 0.32%.
These losses come before the Federal Open
Market Committee’s policy
decision, which is due out on Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures
trading currently shows a 95% chance that the central bank will cut interest
rates by a quarter percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Investors will also be paying close
attention to Fed policymakers’ Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair
Jerome Powell’s press conference, seeking clues about what might happen in the
months ahead. The central bank is widely expected to temper runaway
expectations of more rate cuts in the approaching year, particularly as
inflation remains stubborn.
“I think we’ll get a cut tomorrow, but I
think the language and the tenor will probably be as hawkish as we’ve seen from
Powell in a while,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird. “While
they’re not going to act on policy that hasn’t yet been made, I think that they
will be a little hesitant to commit to, say, four-plus rate cuts in 2025 when
there’s so much unsettled.”
In turn, hawkish commentary on Wednesday
could tee up stocks for a selloff. But Mayfield added he was optimistic that
volatility around Fed meetings usually doesn’t linger for very long.
“We’ve seen some big moves on days where
the Fed has announced a policy change and how it spoke — and these were either
reversed later on, or gains were given back or losses cut later on. So I’m not
overly worried about what happens in the immediate aftermath tomorrow,” he
added.
Before Wednesday’s bell, General Mills, Birkenstock and Jabil are due to report their
latest earnings. Results from Micron
Technology and Lennar are
due in the afternoon.
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news.
Nissan shares surge 24% after media reports on
potential mega merger with Honda
Published Tue, Dec 17 2024 7:23 PM EST
Nissan Motor shares
surged Wednesday following a media
report that the struggling Japanese automaker is looking to merge
with Honda Motor,
forming a bigger entity that can compete with larger rivals and invest more in
the growing market for electric vehicles.
Nissan shares were last trading up 23.7%,
while Honda shares slipped 3%.
Honda and Nissan are considering operating
under a holding company, and will soon sign a memorandum of understanding,
according to a report in the Nikkei newspaper. They plan to eventually bring Mitsubishi Motors, in which
Nissan is the top shareholder with a 24% stake, under the holding company,
according to the report.
Speaking to CNBC, Vivek Vaidya, global
client leader for mobility at research firm Frost & Sullivan, said the
merger was triggered by the financial underperformance of Nissan.
Back in November, Nissan had posted downbeat
results for its second quarter ended September, and slashed its full year
revenue and operating outlook. The automaker also announced plans to slash
9,000 jobs and cut global production capacity by a fifth amid fierce
competition in its major markets.
Joe McCabe, the president and CEO of
AutoForecast Solutions, told CNBC Wednesday that Nissan needs a
“revitalization” after its relationship with Renault went sideways.
“They [Nissan] really didn’t have a
leadership position in any one of the segments they competed in,” he said.
In a statement, Nissan said media reports
that it is “considering a business integration” with Honda are not based on an
announcement from the company. Nissan said it is considering various
possibilities for future collaboration with Honda and Mitsubishi Motors, but no
decisions have been made. Shares of Mitsubishi Motors were
last up 19%.
Frost & Sullivan’s Vaidya said
the merger, should it materialize, will allow all three automakers
“to gain access to technology, to de-risk innovation and to create economics of
scale.”
The combined entity, he pointed out, will
have expertise in not only traditional petrol-powered internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles, but also hybrids, battery electric and hydrogen
vehicles.
More
Honda Nissan merger talks Nikkei reports
Finally, drone mania in the USA explained, well maybe. “Nothing to see here, move on.”
US Government Says Drones are ‘Lawful’ Aircraft,
Stars
‘We have not identified anything anomalous
and do not assess the activity to date to present a national security or public
safety risk,’ the agencies said.
12/17/2024 Updated: 12/17/2024
The mysterious flying objects spotted in
New Jersey and other states are in some cases drones and in others fixed-wing
aircraft or stars, the U.S. Department of Defense and other government agencies
said on Dec. 16.
“Having closely examined the technical
data and tips from concerned citizens, we assess that the sightings to date
include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law
enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and
stars mistakenly reported as drones,” the Pentagon, the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security, the FBI, and the Federal Aviation Administration said
in a joint statement on the social media platform X.
The FBI has received more than 5,000
reported drone sighting tips in recent weeks, the agencies said. The tips have
resulted in 100 leads. The federal government is helping state and local
officials to investigate the leads and using “advanced detection technology”
and “trained visual observers.”
“We have not identified anything anomalous
and do not assess the activity to date to present a national security or public
safety risk over the civilian airspace in New Jersey or other states in the
northeast,” the agencies said.
The FBI and Department of Homeland
Security told The Epoch Times earlier in the month that there was no
evidence showing the drone sightings posed a national security or public safety
threat or had a foreign nexus.
Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon
spokesperson, told reporters in a briefing on Monday that there was no sign the
drones are being controlled by a foreign country.
Flying drones in the United States is
typically legal, provided the drones are below 400 feet, according to the
Federal Aviation Administration.
The sightings of the mysterious objects
began in November in New Jersey. Drones have since been spotted in multiple
other states, including New York and Maryland.
The sightings have led to temporary
closures at airports and the airspace at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio,
prompting calls for answers.
“When you hear hundreds of reports of
drones flying above us, or see activity yourself, and federal agencies
responsible for controlling the air space don’t properly and quickly brief the
public, then it leaves a large vacuum of information,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer
(D-N.J.) told a recent briefing.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Dec. 15 that federal authorities were sending a
cutting-edge drone detection system to her state. The equipment has also been
sent to New Jersey.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy told reporters
on Dec. 16 that there was “little to no suspicious activity” in the state.
More
US Government Says Drones are ‘Lawful’ Aircraft, Stars | The Epoch Times
There is nothing to fear from truth....Being truthful is essential to being an independent thinker and obtaining greater understanding of what is right.
Ray Dalio.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Payrolls
and vacancies fall amid fears UK is on edge of recession
17
December 2024
Fears
over the health of the UK economy were fuelled
today as figures showed payroll numbers and job vacancies falling.
The
number of employees was down 35,000 to 30.4million between October and
November, in the wake of Labour's tax-raising Budget.
Meanwhile, vacancies
dipped by 31,000 to 818,000 in the three months to November.
The
latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also show that
wages were rising faster in the run-up to Rachel Reeves delivering
the fiscal package.
Regular
earnings growth jumped to 5.2 per cent in the three months to October, up from
4.9 per cent in the previous three months and the first time it has risen since
August last year.
Earnings
growth also outstripped the headline CPI inflation
rate by 3 per cent in the three months to October. The high numbers could
harden the Bank
of England's
view against interest rates cuts this week.
ONS
director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: 'After slowing steadily for
over a year, growth in pay excluding bonuses increased slightly in the latest
period, driven by stronger growth in private sector pay.'
On
payrolls, she added: 'We have seen annual growth rates continue to slow,
showing a consistent trend with our latest jobs data from employers.
'The
number of job vacancies has also fallen again, though the total remains a
little above where it was before the pandemic.'
Work
and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: 'Today's figures are a stark reminder
of the work that needs to be done.
'To
get Britain growing again, we need to get Britain working again – so people
have good jobs which pay decent wages and offer the chance to progress.'
Sarah
Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Landsdown, said: 'There's a
disconnect between the rising tide of misery among businesses, anxiety building
for economists, and festive cheer running rampant among the workforce: these
figures show why.
'For
businesses, the Budget brought huge challenges of rising employment costs, so
every announcement of recent weeks has been laced with dire warnings of what
the future might hold in store. Falling vacancies could be an early sign of
more to come.
'For
economists, rising wage inflation is a matter
of concern, because there's the risk it means businesses raise prices to cover
wage costs, and inflation becomes embedded in the economy again.
More
Payrolls and vacancies fall amid fears UK is on edge of recession
Weekly
market review and outlook: Tech leads while stagflation concerns mount
The
NASDAQ Composite reached a historic milestone above 20,000 while economic data
fuels stagflation concerns and rate cut expectations.
Publication
date: Monday 16 December 2024 10:26
Weekly
market review and outlook: Tech leads while stagflation concerns mount
Last
week the NASDAQ 100 achieved a
significant milestone, breaking above 20,000 for the first time, though most
other US equity indices ended lower.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Index saw
seven straight days of lower prices, highlighting the disconnect between
tech stocks and the
overall market. With just 31% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming
the index, the lowest level since the 1998-to-1999 Dot-Com bubble, market
breath is clearly under par and may point to a top forming in the near future.
Equity
market movements
Growth
stocks outperformed value for the third consecutive week, driven by strong
gains in major tech names.
Tesla surged 12%
while Alphabet gained 8.4%.
The Russell 2000 continued to
lag the broader market for a second week.
These
divergent performances highlight ongoing market rotation into large-cap
technology stocks.
Economic
indicators and monetary policy
Stagflation
concerns intensified as both consumer price
index (CPI) and
producer price index (PPI) accelerated year-over-year (YoY).
Initial
jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 242,000, a two-month high.
Markets
now price a 97.1% probability of a Federal Reserve
(Fed) rate
cut, up from 86% last week.
Both
the European central
Bank (ECB) and
the Swiss National
Bank (SNB) implemented
rate cuts of 25 and 50 basis points respectively.
More
Markets Weekly Wrap and Outlook: NASDAQ Breaks 20,000 as Rate Cut Expectations Rise - IG UK
Commodity
Price Forecast into 2025
17
December 2024
This
year has proved challenging for commodities and commodity stocks, excluding the
relatively stable performances of gold and silver. Factors such as a global
economic slowdown and trade uncertainties contributed to a reduced demand. As
the industry looks forward to 2025, several dynamics are expected to shape the
commodity market.
The
resolution of COVID-19 pandemic-induced supply bottlenecks stands to have
residual effects on certain commodity prices. In addition, geopolitical
tensions and falling global interest rates are likely to play significant
roles. The Biden administration’s policies are anticipated to challenge both
U.S. and global economic growth by maintaining heightened tariffs on Chinese
imports.
China,
being a major player in the commodity market, is projected to experience a
slowdown, with GDP growth estimated at 4.2% for 2025. This may affect global
commodity demand, especially in sectors heavily reliant on Chinese consumption.
Citi’s
forecast for 2025 maintains minimal changes to base metals prices. However, the
firm predicts varied outcomes across other commodities:
–
Uranium and Rare Earths, The most significant price increases are expected for
uranium and Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), bolstered by rising demand for
uranium in the U.S.
–
Iron Ore and Crude Oil: The greatest downside risk is anticipated in these
commodities, along with alumina.
–
Coal: Demand, particularly for coking coal, is likely to rise, driven by strong
Indian steel production.- Base Metals and Precious Metals: These categories are
predicted to see subdued growth in 2025, with a potential recovery by up to 10%
in 2026.
Incentive
prices and increasing capital expenditures are expected to provide support for
commodity prices. These factors could buffer against potential downturns linked
to political and economic uncertainties.
Citi
has updated ratings and price targets for key ASX commodity stocks, indicating
strategic shifts in investment expectations.
----While
2025 presents complex challenges for commodity markets, strategic supply-demand
dynamics and adjusted economic policies will navigate these hurdles. Investors
and stakeholders should remain vigilant of geopolitical developments and
economic policies that could alter the current trajectory of commodity prices.
Commodity Price
Forecast into 2025 - The Bull
Tight
supply expected to provide support for cocoa, coffee prices in 2025
The
agri-commodities have been drastically impacted by this year’s El Nino
phenomenon, the most severe in nearly a decade
Published Sat,
Dec 14, 2024 · 05:00 AM
PRICES
of agricultural commodities cocoa and coffee are expected to ease from
historical highs recorded in 2024, but remain elevated amid supply disruptions.
The
El Nino phenomenon this year was the most severe in almost a decade, which had
a drastically negative impact on global cocoa and coffee production.
Jonathan
Parkman, head of agricultural sales at commodities broker Marex, noted that the
Ivory Coast and Ghana had both oversold the amount of cocoa they had produced.
More,
subscription required.
Tight supply expected to provide support for cocoa, coffee prices in 2025
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Latest
NHS Covid and flu advice and list of symptoms as 'quad-demic' cases rise
17
December 2024
Households
across the UK have been reminded of the symptoms to look out for and how to
treat themselves at home as cases of Covid-19 and flu
spread this winter.
The
NHS has warned of a so-called "quad-demic" that threatens to pile
extra pressure on the health service in
the coming weeks, which includes RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and
norovirus as well as flu and Covid. Hospitals in England are managing
"record flu levels" this month, the health service has confirmed,
making it particularly important for patients to be aware of the warning signs
so they can treat themselves at home and avoid spreading the virus to others
where possible.
In
addition, Covid is still circulating, with the head of the World Health
Organisation saying earlier this month: "We cannot talk about Covid in the
past tense. It's still with us, it still causes acute disease and long Covid,
and it still kills."
Here
is the latest NHS advice on symptoms of both flu and Covid, how to treat the
illnesses, and when to seek help from a pharmacist, GP or hospital.
Covid
symptoms
According
to the NHS, symptoms
of Covid-19 can
include:
·
High
temperature or shivering (chills) – a high temperature means you feel hot to
touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature)
·
New,
continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or three or
more coughing episodes in 24 hours
·
Loss
or change to your sense of smell or taste
·
Shortness
of breath
·
Feeling
tired or exhausted
·
Aching
body
·
Headache
·
Sore
throat
·
Blocked
or runny nose
·
Loss
of appetite
·
Diarrhoea
·
Feeling
sick or being sick
These
symptoms are very similar to other illnesses such as colds and flu, so it can
be difficult to distinguish between these and Covid unless you carry out a
Covid test. While most people recover from Covid within a few weeks, according
to the NHS, for some it can
be a more serious illness with symptoms lasting longer.
More
Latest NHS Covid and flu advice and list of symptoms as 'quad-demic' cases rise
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Today,
something a little different. Is planet Earth overdue a shock from the Sun, and
we’re not talking Murdoch’s sleazy UK newspaper.
Superflares
Erupt From Sun-Like Stars Roughly Every 100 Years, a New Study Finds. Is Our
Sun Overdue for a Massive Blast?
Solar
flares and coronal mass ejections could cause serious damage to
telecommunications systems, satellites and power grids here on Earth
Gayoung Lee December 16, 2024 1:29 p.m.
Our
solar system could be subject to a violent “superflare” explosion from our sun
sooner rather than later, researchers warn, based on a new analysis of behavior
from similar stars.
Stars,
including our sun, regularly emit solar flares, or strong bursts of
electromagnetic radiation. Superflares, however, are much more powerful than
typical solar flares, emitting up
to 10,000 times more radiation. And across the cosmos, these
events might occur much more frequently than astronomers previously thought,
according to a paper published in Science last
week.
The
new results indicate that stars resembling our sun experience superflares
approximately once every century—and if that’s true, it seems our sun may be
overdue for such an explosion. As solar activity is already
known to cause damage to Earth’s satellite and
telecommunication systems, the discovery came as a shock to the team.
“This
is 40 to 50 times more frequent than previously thought,” Valeriy Vasilyev, a
scientist at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) and
a co-author of the paper, tells Space.com’s
Robert Lea. “Everything about this discovery was surprising.”
Because
superflares are relatively rare, Vasilyev and his team pulled data from 56,450
stars that share many characteristics with our sun. The data, previously collected
by NASA’s Kepler space telescope between 2009 and 2013, gave them access to
“evidence of 220,000 years of stellar activity,” explains study co-author Alexander
Shapiro, an astrophysicist at Austria’s University of Graz, in a statement.
From
the data, they identified 2,889 occurrences of superflares on 2,527 stars,
which led them to conclude that one sun-like star produces about one superflare
every 100 years or so. Generally, stars of the same size and temperature share
the same evolutionary life cycles, writes Korey Haynes for Astronomy magazine. As
such, the aggregate behavior of these stars might serve as a predictor for how
our sun will act.
This
is why astronomers are paying close attention to this new discovery. In
particular, they hope that by better understanding when such events may occur,
we can better prepare for the damage that could follow. For instance, the Carrington Event
of 1859, the strongest solar storm on record, ravaged telegraph networks
across the globe. But the energy released during that flare is only
one-hundredth of the enery thought to be associated with a superflare, the
researchers say.
Still,
scientists point to a few reasons why superflares might not be a huge cause for
alarm. On other stars, these powerful blasts tend
to happen near the poles, Space.com reports,
so such flares from our sun might miss the Earth entirely. In addition, the
examined stars might not be perfect analogs for our sun, some
scientists say—and 30 percent of the stars seen emitting superflares in the new
study are found in pairs known as binary systems, notes Live
Science’s Ben Turner. Perhaps the tidal interactions between those stars,
which would not apply to our sun, are triggering some of their flares.
Ultimately,
we don’t know for certain that our sun is capable of expelling a superflare,
Vasilyev tells the New
York Times’ Katrina Miller. But “it’s nice to be prepared,” he adds.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
If you
don't own Gold, you know neither history nor economics.
Ray
Dalio.
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