Baltic
Dry Index. 1156 -12 Brent Crude 72.66
Spot Gold 2688 US 2 Year Yield 4.15 +0.02
All money is a matter of belief.
Adam Smith.
In the stock casinos, a pause ahead of today’s latest US inflation figures, or something more? Geopolitical and economic reality setting in?
Has the deep state and outgoing team Biden set up team Trump 2.0 for a fall?
From South Korea, to Germany, to France, to UK, 2025 economic prospects look bleak.
From Iran through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, 2025’s economic and peace and stability prospects look bleak.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
await key policy meeting in China
Updated Wed, Dec 11 2024 10:44 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday,
after major Wall Street benchmarks declined ahead of key inflation data that
could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
China is reportedly kicking off its annual economic work
conference on Wednesday to outline its economic policies and growth targets for
next year.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index started the
trading session 0.66% higher, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was flat.
In South Korea, the blue-chip Kospi jumped 0.78% and the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 2%, a day after the country’s parliament passed a
downsized budget of 673.3 trillion won ($470.60 billion) for 2025 late
yesterday.
This is reportedly the first time that a spending bill had
been trimmed down without consent from government ministries.
On Wednesday, South Korea’s corruption
investigation office for high-ranking officials reportedly said it would seek the detention and arrest of President Yoon Seok
Yeol if conditions are met.
This comes after media reports emerged that police had raided the
presidential office as part of an investigation into Yoon’s brief imposition of
martial law.
South Korea also reported a seasonally
adjusted unemployment rate of 2.7% in November, according to Statistics Korea, unchanged from the previous month.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 0.32% while
the broad-based Topix traded nearly flat.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.57%
lower.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
for a fourth straight day, losing 154.10 points, or 0.35%, to 44,247.83.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to end
at 6,034.91, and the Nasdaq
Composite lost 0.25% to 19,687.24. Both indexes fell for a second
straight day.
Investors await the U.S. consumer price
index report for November, due on Wednesday, which could influence the Federal
Reserve interest-rate path at its policy meeting from Dec. 17 to Dec. 18.
The closely-watched economic index is
forecast to have risen slightly to 2.7%
12-month inflation rate, accelerating by 0.1 percentage point from the
previous month, and above the Fed’s targeting annual inflation at 2%, according
to the Dow Jones estimates.
Asia markets live update: China economic work conference; South Korea unemployment
European markets set for negative open as traders
await U.S. inflation data
Updated Wed, Dec 11 2024 12:33 AM EST
European markets are heading for a
negative open as traders await the latest U.S. inflation data Wednesday.
The U.S consumer price index data will
likely influence how the Federal Reserve proceeds on interest rates at its Dec.
17-18 meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast that headline inflation
rose 0.3% in November and 2.7% over the prior 12 months.
Asia-Pacific markets were
mixed Wednesday, after major Wall Street benchmarks declined Tuesday ahead of
the data, while U.S. stock futures were near flat Tuesday night.
Earnings are set to come from Inditex and
OPEC releases its latest monthly oil market report Wednesday.
European markets live updates: U.S. inflation data and earnings
The CPI report Wednesday is expected to show that
progress on inflation has hit a wall
Published Tue, Dec 10 2024 3:04 PM EST Updated
Tue, Dec 10 2024 4:33 PM EST
A key economic report coming Wednesday is
expected to show that progress has stalled in bringing down the inflation rate,
though not so much that the Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates next
week.
The consumer price index, a broad measure
of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.7%
12-month inflation rate for November, which would mark a 0.1
percentage point acceleration from the previous month, according to the Dow
Jones consensus.
Excluding food and energy, so-called core
inflation is forecast at 3.3%, or unchanged from October. Both measures are
projected to show 0.3% monthly increases.
With the Fed targeting annual inflation at
2%, the report will provide more evidence that the high cost of living remains
very much a fact of life for U.S. households.
“Looking at these measures, there’s
nothing in there that says the inflation dragon has been slain,” said Dan
North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “Inflation is still here,
and it doesn’t show any convincing moves towards 2%.”
Along with the read Wednesday on consumer
prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release its producer
price index, a gauge of wholesale prices that is projected to show a 0.2%
monthly gain.
To be sure, inflation has moved down
considerably from its CPI cycle peak around 9% in June 2022. However, the cumulative
impact of price increases has been a burden to consumers, particularly
those at the lower end of the wage scale. Core CPI has been drifting higher
since July after showing a steady series of declines.
Still, traders in futures markets are
placing huge odds that policymakers again
will cut their benchmark short-term borrowing rate by a quarter of a
percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting
Dec. 18. Odds of a cut were near 88% on Tuesday morning, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.
More
CPI report expected to show that progress on inflation has hit a wall
Next, in USA v China trade war news, China tries to trump Trump.
Nvidia facing Chinese anti-monopoly probe as
business practices come under scrutiny
December 10, 2024
- Nvidia’s
acquisition of Mellanox Technologies is being investigated by China
- The
second-biggest company in the world will cooperate with regulators
- China’s
probe comes just days after the US intensifies restrictions
The recent run of high-profile antitrust investigations
could be set to intensify even further with the launch of a Chinese-backed
anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia.
The
country's probe focuses on alleged violations linked to Nvidia's near-$7
billion acquisition of networking company Mellanox Technologies in 2020.
While tech giants across the globe are all facing
regulatory scrutiny, the timing of the investigation handily lines up
with tightened US restrictions on
China's access to advanced semiconductors, marking the escalation of the ongoing US-China tech
war.
China launches its
own Nvidia investigation
The news was announced
by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, with Beijing’s State Administration for
Market Regulation saying the chipmaker failed to provide new product
information to rivals within 90 days of availability to Nvidia, something it
was required to do as part of the deal.
The probe comes not
long after the US added even more Chinese companies to its entities list. In
response, the country has curbed some mineral exports, including antimony,
gallium and germanium, which are all used in the production of advanced
semiconductors in the US.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
researcher James Lewis said (via BBC): “The timing is not a coincidence… It's mainly a
message to the US government - the Chinese have decided they're not just going
to take sanction after sanction.”
Nvidia has already
confirmed it would be “happy to answer any questions regulators may have about
our business.”
A company spokesperson
added: “Nvidia wins on merit, as reflected in our benchmark results and value
to customers, and customers can choose whatever solution is best for them… We
work hard to provide the best products we can in every region and honor our
commitments everywhere we do business.”
After becoming the world's most valuable company
on two separate occasions, Nvidia has slipped back into second place, with a
market cap of $3.399 trillion, second only to Apple.
The company’s early entry to the AI chips market
has allowed it to benefit from off-the-scale interest in the technology, with
Nvidia shares rising from $16.27 prior to ChatGPT’s public preview launch to $138.81 now, marking a
colossal 753% increase.
Nvidia facing Chinese anti-monopoly probe as business practices come under scrutiny | TechRadar
Finally, in GB, signers and voters remorse. We wuz had!
Labour’s business backers – where are they now?
Tuesday 10 December 2024 5:30
am | Updated: Monday 09 December 2024 7:02 pm
Labour won the public backing of over 120
business chiefs in a letter before the election – but the enthusiasm of those
executives appears to have dimmed since then. City AM tried to track
them down.
It was a letter that seemed
to signal a tectonic shift in British politics when it landed in newspapers
late in May.
“Labour has shown it has changed and wants
to work with business to achieve the UK’s full economic potential,” read the
message, written centrally by the Labour party and signed by 121 business
chiefs in a show of support for Keir
Starmer and
his party.
“We should now give it the chance to
change the country and lead Britain into the future. We are in urgent need of a
new outlook to break free from the stagnation of the last decade and we hope by
taking this public stand we might persuade others of that need too.”
The letter was held up as a watershed
moment in Labour’s courtship of the private sector: the tide of business
turning against the Tories and warming to Starmer and Rachel Reeves’s more
stable and ostensibly pro-business pitch.
However, a look at the signatories in the
days after its publication raised questions over just how significant this vote
of confidence was. No serving FTSE 350 executives had signed. What’s more, some
were existing Labour members. Some were retired. The word ‘former’ appeared a
lot.
Now, five months down the line and with
full clarity over Labour’s fiscal plans, many of those who came out in support
are no longer as effusive as they once were.
Tom Kerridge, the celebrity chef and
restaurateur who put his name to the endorsement in May, did not mince his
words over Labour’s plans last week, saying they would have a “catastrophic
effect” on the hospitality industry.
City AM contacted the other 120
signatories of the letter over the past week and just 28 of the original
backers appeared willing to reiterate their support for Labour on the
record. Three declined to comment when asked if they remained supportive of the
government, while several were keen to stress that they signed in a purely
personal capacity.
Just under 90 failed to respond to
multiple requests for comment. Representatives of two signatories said they
were currently “uncontactable.”
Perhaps most worryingly for Labour, one
prominent signatory told City AM they felt they had been
“duped” after facing pressure from party officials to sign the letter.
“I signed it, I was asked twice to sign it
and I do feel stupid. We were lied to on that, they said they were pro business
and they said they had changed,” the executive said, asking to remain
anonymous.
Of those who stood by their decision to
endorse Labour, several said they now have concerns over the direction of the
government and the series of punishing tax rises laid out at the Budget.
More
Labour's business backers - where are they now?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
Germany almost needs a section on its own. Coming soon a French section too?
VW,
unions hold 'constructive' talks, but no solution in sight
Updated
/ Tuesday, 10 Dec 2024 08:10
Volkswagen
and its unions were far from finding common ground on tackling a crisis at its
German plants but held talks yesterday that both sides described as
constructive, as record numbers of the carmaker's workers went on strike across
the country.
"After
today's round it is clear we are still far from a solution," Volkswagen's
chief negotiator Arne Meiswinkel said after over seven hours of talks.
But
labour representative Thorsten Groeger said it was the first time talks had
taken place in a "constructive climate" and that they were ready to
return to the negotiating table on December 16.
Earlier,
Groeger said that unless Monday's talks took a conciliatory tone, unions saw no
further room for negotiation this year and would escalate strikes to an
unprecedented level in 2025.
Still,
the unions remained steadfast in saying they would refuse to accept plant
closures, while the carmaker said these could not be ruled out, indicating the
two parties remain far apart.
VW
staff downed tools at nine German sites which are under threat yesterday, while
thousands of workers marched waving flags and blowing whistles to a square in
Wolfsburg, where the carmaker has its headquarters, to listen to union leaders.
The
latest negotiations, which initially kicked off in September, come as Europe's
largest carmaker seeks ways to radically cut costs in Germany to better compete
with cheaper Asian rivals that have entered its home market.
The
VW crisis has hit at a time of uncertainty and political upheaval in Europe's
largest economy, as well as wider turmoil among the region's automakers.
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is trailing in polls ahead of a snap election,
warned VW against factory closures over the weekend.
Some
68,000 workers went on strike for four hours in Wolfsburg from the early and
middle shifts alone, with the late and night shifts still to follow, the IG
Metall union said.
The
strikes are already more widespread than the last round of major industrial action
at VW in 2018, when more than 50,000 workers went on so-called warning strikes
over pay at six sites.
IG
Metall said there have never been any real walkouts lasting 24 hours or more
beyond so-called "warning strikes", which are flagged in advance and
of limited duration.
Workers,
who have dismissed any cuts to wages or plant closures, can crank up the
pressure on VW by eventually staging 24-hour strikes and even open-ended ones.
More
VW, unions hold
'constructive' talks, but still no deal
DW:
Disastrous OECD forecasts for the German economy – The new year is expected
with deep concern
What
the poll shows - German economy slides into recession, crisis in the car
industry intensifies, one in five worried about their jobs
December
6 08:15
83%
of German respondents think the German economy is bad or worsening, according
to a new Deutschlandtrend poll for public broadcaster ARD.
47%
of respondents say they are pessimistic about the picture of the German economy
in 2025, while 45% see the economy as the main problem the government has to
address. 21% of German respondents fear for their jobs. That translates in
simple terms: 1 in 5 out of 46 million workers.
Negative
OECD forecasts
Meanwhile,
new disastrous OECD forecasts for the German economy are also causing concern.
The aggregate figures for 2024 and 2025 ring another bell for Germany: Growth
is hovering around 0.1% for 2024 and 0.7% for 2025, while it had predicted
1.1%.
This
is the fifth consecutive cut in the OECD’s forecasts for the German economy.
The reasons, among others, according to the report of the international
organization: are the poor financial image of Germany, the international
geopolitical situation, and the threat of protectionism.
The
global financial crisis, the global economic crisis, the threat of the threat
of terrorism, the global economic crisis, the global financial crisis, the
global economic crisis, and the threat of the threat of terrorism.
More
Treat
France as strictly as us, say Dutch
Need
for Paris to cut spending is “in the interest of Europe as a whole,” says
Netherlands finance minister.
December
9, 2024 4:58 pm CET
BRUSSELS
― The European Commission must take the same tough approach in judging France
as it took in evaluating the Dutch budget plans, Netherlands Finance Minister
Eelco Heinen said.
"I
expect the European Commission to be just as strict to France as it has been
with me," Heinen told reporters entering a meeting of eurozone finance
ministers on Monday.
The
Netherlands was the only country whose annual budget and medium-term fiscal
plan both failed to meet EU targets, according to the Commission.
By
contrast, France's government under Prime Minister Michel Barnier, which was
toppled last week after losing a confidence vote, got EU approval for its 2025
budget and its longer-term plan. Barnier did not win political support for the
measures from the far-right and left-wing blocs in parliament, which hold the
balance of power.
Both
the Dutch and the French need to take extra steps to cut spending, Heinen said.
"This
is not only in the interest of France but in the interest of Europe as a
whole,” he added.
Despite
France having deficit and debt levels higher than those in the Netherlands, EU
rules take into account the starting position of each country ― and the French
commitments to cut spending were also "more ambitious", European
Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said last week.
The
EU executive has been accused for a long time of applying
special treatment to France. The country, the second largest in the EU, has had
a deficit ― the difference between how much a government spends and how much it
brings in ― above the crucial 3-percent-of-GDP ceiling in 18 out of the last 22
years.
France's
2025 budget is expected to come at the beginning of the
new year. Without
a new medium-term budget plan, the one previously presented by Barnier ― and
approved by the EU executive ― is set to be formally adopted by EU governments
in January, making its planned cuts binding for French governments over seven
years.
Treat France as
strictly as us, say Dutch – POLITICO
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19:
from ticking time bomb to mild inconvenience
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2024
A
leading virologist weighs in on the discussion of whether all those prevention
measures and the push to get vaccinated were over the top
The
past few weeks have seen increasing online discussion as to whether Covid-19 is
now a mild disease and whether the initial response, in particular the
prevention measures and vaccine distribution, was excessive. Prof Dr Yong
Poovorawan, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at the
Department of Paediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University,
addressed this issue in a Facebook post, stating that times and circumstances
have changed, making direct comparisons impossible.
“We
cannot compare the situation during the first two years of the outbreak to that
in the fourth or fifth year. The disease has significantly diminished in
severity due to the evolution of the virus itself and the immunity humans have
developed from vaccines and infections. As a result, the disease is now much
less severe compared to the early stages of the outbreak,” Dr Yong wrote.
Historically,
pandemics tend to follow this pattern. For example, during the Spanish flu
outbreak over 100 years ago, which claimed 20-40 million lives worldwide and
80,000 lives in Thailand – despite Thailand's population being only 8 million
at the time – the disease was most severe in its first year. After the
outbreak, the virus persisted but evolved into the seasonal flu, H1N1.
Similarly,
in the first two years of the Covid-19 outbreak, the disease was severe, with a
fatality rate of about 1% in Thailand, resulting in over 30,000 deaths. Over
time, however, the virus weakened, and people developed immunity, allowing us
to coexist with it. Today, it resembles a common respiratory illness.
In
the first year of the Covid-19 outbreak, pneumonia cases were very high.
Hospitals prioritised patients with pneumonia, while less severe cases were
managed in field hospitals. ICUs were overwhelmed, and there was a significant
push to develop ventilator technology. Since then, the virus has evolved and
the disease has continually decreased in severity.
This
year, Covid-19 can be considered resolved, though the virus remains with us and
will persist indefinitely. Contributors to social media have raised concerns
about whether the response to the disease was excessive, with claims that
vaccination efforts were unnecessary for a mild illness. However, comparing the
current situation to the early stages of the pandemic is inappropriate.
Dr
Yong noted that in the first year of the pandemic in Thailand, the fatality
rate was 1%, comparable to the Spanish flu. Had we done nothing and allowed the
virus to spread unchecked, as was the case a century ago, Thailand could have
seen 600,000 deaths, representing 1% of the population. The disease would have
eventually subsided, but at a significant cost.
“Therefore,
as time and circumstances change, we cannot compare current events to the first
or second year of the outbreak,” Dr Yong concluded.
Covid-19: from ticking time bomb to mild inconvenience
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Stellantis and
CATL to Invest Up to €4.1 Billion in Joint Venture for Large-Scale LFP Battery
Plant in Spain
Tue 10
December 2024 at 8:03 am GMT
AMSTERDAM, December
10, 2024 – Stellantis and
CATL today announced they have reached an agreement to invest up to €4.1
billion to form a joint venture that will build a large-scale European lithium
iron phosphate (LFP) battery plant in Zaragoza, Spain. Designed to be
completely carbon neutral, the battery plant will be implemented in several
phases and investment plans.
Targeted
to start production by end of 2026 at Stellantis’ Zaragoza, Spain site, the
facility could reach up to 50 GWh capacity, subject to the evolution of the
electrical market in Europe and continued support from authorities in Spain and
the European Union. The 50-50 joint venture between CATL and Stellantis will
boost Stellantis’ best-in-class LFP offer in Europe enabling the automaker to
offer more high-quality, durable and affordable battery-electric passenger
cars, crossovers and SUVs in the B and C segments with intermediate ranges.
In
November 2023, Stellantis and CATL signed
a non-binding MOU for the local supply of LFP battery
cells and modules for electric vehicle production in Europe and established a
long-term collaboration on two strategic fronts: creating a bold technology
roadmap to support Stellantis’ advanced battery electric vehicles (BEV) and
identifying opportunities to further strengthen the battery value chain.
“Stellantis
is committed to a decarbonized future, embracing all available advanced battery
technologies to bring competitive electric vehicle products to our customers,”
said Stellantis Chairman John Elkann. “This important joint venture with our
partner CATL will bring innovative battery production to a manufacturing site
that is already a leader in clean and renewable energy, helping drive a
360-degree sustainable approach. I want to thank all stakeholders involved in
making today’s announcement a reality, including the Spanish authorities for
their continued support.”
“The
joint venture has taken our cooperation with Stellantis to new heights, and I
believe our cutting-edge battery technology and outstanding operation knowhow
combined with Stellantis’ decades-long experience in running business locally
in Zaragoza will ensure a major success story in the industry,” said Robin
Zeng, Chairman and CEO of CATL. “CATL’s goal is to make zero-carbon technology
accessible across the globe, and we look forward to cooperating with our
partners globally through more innovative cooperation models.”
CATL
is bringing state-of-the-art battery manufacturing technology to Europe through
its two plants in Germany and Hungary, which are already operational. The
Spanish facility will enhance its capabilities to support customers’ climate
goals, further underscoring its commitment to advancing e-mobility and energy
transition efforts in Europe and the global market.
Stellantis
is employing a dual-chemistry approach – lithium-ion nickel manganese cobalt
(NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) – to serve all customers and exploring
innovative battery cell and pack technologies. Stellantis is on track to
becoming a carbon net zero corporation by 2038, all scopes included, with
single-digit percentage compensation of remaining emissions.
The
transaction is expected to close in the course of 2025 and is subject to
customary regulatory conditions.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Consumption
is the sole end and purpose of all production; and the interest of the producer
ought to be attended to only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that
of the consumer. The maxim is so perfectly self-evident that it would be absurd
to attempt to prove it. But in the mercantile system the interest of the
consumer is almost constantly sacrificed to that of the producer; and it seems
to consider production, and not consumption, as the ultimate end and object of
all industry and commerce.
Adam
Smith. An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
No comments:
Post a Comment