Baltic
Dry Index. 994 +04 Brent Crude 73.22
Spot Gold 2632 US 2 Year Yield 4.30 +0.01
In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money. There is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation - and we know that inflation will continue.
Nicholas Deak.
It is almost year-end. What will 2025 bring?
On Wall Street, the great AI/Trump bubble, bubbles on. What could possibly go wrong, right?
Asia markets trade mixed as investors assess
China’s industrial profit data, Tokyo CPI
Published Thu, Dec 26 2024 6:42 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday, as
some markets return from the Boxing Day holiday and investors assessed economic
data from the region.
China’s industrial profits extended declines to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3% in
November from a year earlier, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures have
yet to meaningfully stem the slide in corporate earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.39%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.18%.
Investors assessed November inflation numbers from Japan’s capital of Tokyo,
which saw its headline inflation rate come in at 3%, compared to 2.6% in
October. Core inflation, which excludes costs of fresh food, rose to 2.4%
missing Reuters’ expectations of a 2.5% rise. Tokyo’s inflation numbers are
widely considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
Separately, Japan’s cabinet approved
a historic
budget of $732 billion for the fiscal year beginning in April, while
restricting new bond issuance to its lowest level in 17 years, Reuters
reported. The approved budget is 2.6% larger than the current year’s budget.
Japan’s jobless rate for the month of November came in at
2.5%, in line with Reuters’ estimates and unchanged from October.
The Nikkei 225 rose 1.79%, while
the Topix added 1.2%.
South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.89% while the
Kosdaq traded 1.36% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5% as
trading resumed after Christmas and Boxing Day holidays.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased
earlier losses and squeezed out a small gain in thin trading Thursday after the
market’s strong back-to-back gains at the start of the holiday week.
The blue-chip Dow closed the day 28.77
points, or 0.07%, higher to 43,325.80 after losing about 182 points earlier in
the session. The S&P 500 dipped
2.45 points, or 0.04%, to 6,037.59. The Nasdaq Composite also ended
the day lower, falling less than 0.1% to 20,020.36.
Asia markets live updates: Tokyo CPI, China industrial profit
Stock futures inch down, but major averages are on
pace for weekly gains: Live updates
Updated Fri, Dec 27 2024 12:22 AM EST
Stock futures ticked lower early Friday as
investors look to end the holiday-shortened week on a strong note.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
50 points, or 0.1%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures dipped 0.16% and 0.23% respectively.
These moves follow thin
trading action in Thursday’s regular session. The 30-stock Dow eked out a
narrow gain for its fifth winning day, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended the
session just below the flatline.
The three major U.S. indexes are in the
green week to date after posting strong back-to-back gains at the start of the
shortened holiday week. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% so far this week. The broad
market index posted its best Christmas Eve performance since 1974 on Tuesday,
according to Bespoke. The Dow has gained 1.1% this week, and a run-up in
megacap tech stocks has pushed the Nasdaq Composite 2.3% higher.
Although trading has been muted this week,
investors hope stocks will surge into the new year, spurred by the
so-called “Santa
Claus rally.” This refers to the market’s tendency to rise in the final
five trading days of the year and the first two in January.
“The nation is experiencing a collective
sigh of relief after navigating through a contentious election cycle and
unusual market dynamics to end 2024 with strong year-to-date gains,” said Todd
Ahlsten, chief investment officer at Parnassus Investments. “Looking ahead to
2025, the markets are expected to broaden and improve.”
In December, the Nasdaq is on pace for a
4.2% advance, lifted by a jump in Tesla and Alphabet shares, as well as by a
rally in Apple that’s brought the iPhone maker closer to a $4 trillion market
cap. The S&P 500 is toting a nearly 0.1% gain on the month. The Dow is on
pace for its worst month since April, with a roughly 3.5% decline.
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news, a worrying year-end.
China’s industrial profits extend decline to a
fourth straight month, dropping 7.3% in November
Published Thu, Dec 26 2024 8:36 PM EST
China’s industrial profits extended declines to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3% in
November from a year earlier, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures have
yet to meaningfully stem the slide in corporate earnings.
However, the drop in profits was less than
the declines in the previous months. They had
slumped 10% year on year in October following a 27.1%
plunge in September — their steepest drop since March 2020 according
to Wind information.
There is “no surprise” when it comes to
the persistently lower profits faced by the industrial companies, especially in
China’s disinflationary environment, said Suan Teck Kin, head of research at
UOB.
However, “the worst is over” for China’s
economy given the slate of stimulus push, she added. “I think it’s basically
just bottomed out, and now it’s on the way up,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs
Asia.”
Industrial profits are a key indicator of
the financial well-being of factories, utilities and mines in China. The
earnings show how business balance sheets stack up in the aftermath of
Beijing’s steps aimed at stimulating the economy.
Between January and November, China’s
industrial profits fell 4.7% from the same period last year, compared to a 4.3%
drop year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024.
Industrial firms with foreign investments,
including those with investments from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, saw profits
dip by 0.8% from January to November, compared to a year ago.
The mining industry’s profits slumped
13.2% year on year in the first 11 months of the year, while manufacturing
profits dropped 4.6%. However, utilities industry — electricity, heat, gas and
water supply — saw a 10.9% year-on-year increase in profits between January and
November.
“With the effective implementation of
existing policies, the accelerated introduction of a package of incremental
policies, and the continued effect of the policy combination, industrial
production above designated size grew steadily,” said Yu Weining, statistician
at the National Bureau of Statistics, according to a Google
translation of her comments in Chinese.
Despite a slew of stimulus measures
introduced since
late September, recent economic data from China indicates that the world’s
second-largest economy continues to grapple with disinflation, driven by weak
consumer demand and a prolonged downturn in the property market.
China’s
consumer inflation fell to a five-month low in November, while
the country’s
exports and import data missed expectations. China’s most
recent retail sales data also disappointed, missing forecasts.
However, some parts of China’s economy
have shown signs of a recovery, with manufacturing activity expanding for two
months in a row and hitting a five-month high in November.
Earlier this month, China’s top officials
committed at a
key economic agenda-setting meeting to dial up monetary easing
efforts, including lowering interest rates to support the ailing economy.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic
growth in 2024 and 2025, reflecting the recent policy adjustments. It
now expects China’s GDP to grow 4.9% in 2024 compared with its previous
projection of 4.8%, while in 2025, China’s GDP is expected to expand by 4.5%,
higher than the organization’s prior forecast of 4.1%.
However, the World Bank cautioned that
China’s embattled property sector, alongside subdued household and business
confidence, will remain headwinds to its growth.
China's industrial profits extend decline to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3% in November
Trump takes aim at Canada, Greenland and the
Panama Canal in Christmas Day posts
Published Thu, Dec 26 2024 5:59 AM EST
President-elect Donald Trump took aim at
Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal in a series of Christmas Day social
media posts that suggested the United States could take control of all three.
Writing on his Truth Social platform,
Trump kicked off the lengthy posts by wishing a merry Christmas to all, “including
to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating
the Panama Canal.”
He referred to the American lives lost
during the canal’s construction more than 100 years ago and added that the
United States “puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have
absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”
Trump then mocked Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau, whom he referred to as “governor,” and suggested once again that the United States could
annex Canada as its 51st state.
He wrote that “if Canada was to become our
51st State, their Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would
immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no
other Country anywhere in the World.”
Trump continued his post by addressing
“the people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for National
Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!”
Trump said in another post that he had encouraged former
professional hockey star Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister of Canada but
that Gretzky “had no interest.”
In his posts Wednesday, Trump also mocked
President Joe Biden as “a man who has absolutely no idea what he is doing” and
sent season’s greetings to the “radical left lunatics.”
The posts build upon a series of messages
Trump has delivered in recent weeks.
More from NBC News:
---- In a formal announcement from
his presidential transition team Wednesday, Trump said he would nominate Kevin
Marino Cabrera to be the U.S. ambassador to Panama, which he accused of
“ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dream.”
Cabrera is a member of the Miami-Dade
County Commission and the Miami-Dade International Trade Consortium.
Trump raised the idea of buying Greenland — which is part of
Denmark — during his first term. But he showed fresh interest in the
topic this week in his statement announcing his intention to
nominate Ken Howery to be ambassador to Denmark.
Greenland’s prime minister, Múte Egede,
rejected Trump’s comments about his country this week.
When it comes to Canada, Trump in recent weeks has also mocked Trudeau as the
“governor” of Canada while warning of tariffs on the country. He also
previously joked that Canada should become the 51st state. Fox News reported this month that Trump also raised
the possibility directly to Trudeau during a dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate in
Florida.Adam Sandler teases ‘Happy Gilmore 2’
Trump takes aim at Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal in Christmas Day posts
Gold rises on safety demand as markets look to
2025 in holiday lull
Published Thu, Dec 26 2024 12:12 AM EST Updated
Thu, Dec 26 2024 3:54 PM EST
Gold prices rose on Thursday, driven by
safe-haven demand amid light trading volumes following the Christmas holiday,
as markets await signals regarding the U.S. economy under the incoming Trump
administration and Federal Reserve’s rate strategy for 2025.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,634.39 per
ounce. U.S. gold futures added 0.7% to $2,654.60.
“Some of gold’s gains had to do with
what’s going on in Ukraine with Russia hitting Ukraine’s electrical system,”
said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he
asked the U.S. Defense Department to continue its surge of weapons deliveries
to Ukraine after condemning Russia’s Christmas Day attack against some of
Ukraine’s cities and its energy system.
“Gold will still be purchased by central
banks, and as inflation continues, you may see increased demand for gold on the
retail side as well,” Pavilonis said adding that prices are expected to break
$3,000 next year.
Gold is considered a hedge against
geopolitical turmoil and inflation, but higher rates reduce the appeal of
holding the non-yielding asset. The yellow metal has gained 28% so far this
year and saw an all-time peak of $2,790.15 on Oct.31.
Next year is going to be a very volatile
period for bullion, the first-half will be positive with heightened
geopolitical tensions while the second half could see some profit-booking, said
Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities, Mumbai.
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the
White House in January, markets will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data
to gauge how the Fed will navigate the inflationary pressures anticipated from
his administration’s policies, including tariffs, deregulation, and tax
reforms.
After aggressively cutting rates in
September and November this year, the Fed persisted with cuts in December but
hinted at fewer reductions in 2025.
Spot silver gained 0.8% to $29.84 per
ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $938.25 and palladium shed 2.6% to $929.04.
Gold rises on safety demand as markets look to 2025 in holiday lull
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Toyota
global production down for 10th month despite rising sales
By Reuters December 25, 2024 4:33 AM GMT
TOKYO,
Dec 25 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor's (7203.T), opens
new tab global
production decreased for a 10th straight month in November, the Japanese
carmaker said on Wednesday, although its worldwide sales grew for the second
consecutive month on solid demand in the United States and China.
The
world's biggest automaker manufactured 869,230 vehicles globally in November,
down 6.2% from the same month last year, a larger fall than October's 0.8% dip.
Toyota's
U.S. output was down 11.8%, making a slow recovery although the production of
Grand Highlander and Lexus TX SUV models resumed in late October after a four-month
stoppage.
China
production dropped 1.6%, which was however better than a 9% decline in the
previous month, as Toyota saw higher local sales of its Granvia and Sienna
minivan models and the electric sedan bZ3 jointly developed with
BYD (002594.SZ),
opens new tab.
Amid
the rise of BYD and other Chinese brands, Toyota has decided to build an
independent plant in Shanghai and start manufacturing electric cars for its
Lexus luxury brand from around 2027, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday.
In
Japan, which accounts for about a third of Toyota's global output, production
was down 9.3% in November, due in part to a two-day production halt at its
Fujimatsu and Yoshiwara plants.
Toyota
saw its worldwide sales rising for a second straight month, by 1.7% to 920,569
vehicles, setting a new record for the month of November.
In
the January-to-November period, Toyota's global output was 5.2% lower than the
same period last year at around 8.75 million vehicles, while global sales were
down 1.2%.
The
production and sales figures include vehicles of Toyota's Lexus brand but
exclude those of group companies Hino (7205.T), opens
new tab and
Daihatsu.
Toyota global
production down for 10th month despite rising sales | Reuters
Consumer
Confidence Falls Amid Pessimism About Future Economy and Employment
The
decline was driven mostly by a deterioration in appraisals of the current
business situation in the United States.
12/23/2024
Updated: 12/23/2024
Confidence
among U.S. consumers slumped in December, driven by growing pessimism about
future economic and labor market conditions, according to a Dec. 23 report from The
Conference Board, reflecting a pullback in optimism that surged in the
immediate wake of the 2024 presidential election.
The
group’s headline consumer confidence index fell 8.1 points to 104.7 in
December, erasing gains made in November, with the decline most concentrated in
middle-income households.
The
present situation index, which assesses consumers’ views on a mix of current
business and labor conditions, edged down slightly to 140.2. The decline was
driven mostly by a deterioration in appraisals of the current business
situation in the United States, with 16.7 percent saying business conditions
were “bad,” up from 15.3 percent who expressed that view in November.
Labor
market optimism, a key driver of consumer spending, showed mixed signals. There
was improvement in assessments of current labor market conditions, but
deterioration in the six-month-ahead outlook.
The
Conference Board’s forward-looking expectations index, which reflects the
business, income, and labor market outlook over the next six months, plunged
12.6 points to 81.1 in December, hovering just above the 80-point threshold
that often signals an incoming recession. The decline marked the largest drop
in over four years.
“While
weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations
contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop,“
Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
”Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less
optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism
about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in
October and November.”
More
Consumer Confidence Falls Amid Pessimism About Future Economy and Employment | The Epoch Times
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Trump looks to withdraw from WHO on first day of his administration
24 December 2024
Donald Trump's presidential
transition team is planning an immediate withdrawal from the World Health Organization, an expert familiar with the discussions has
said.
The president-elect, 78,
has repeatedly called the health body a puppet of Beijing for failing to
hold China accountable for the early spread of Covid-19.
Members of Trump's team
have now told experts of their intention to withdraw from the WHO on January 20
- the first day of his second term.
'I have it on good
authority that he plans to withdraw, probably on Day One or very early in his
administration,' said Lawrence Gostin, professor of global health at Georgetown
University in Washington and director of the WHO Collaborating Center on National
and Global Health Law.
The Financial Times was
first to report on the plans, citing two experts. The second expert,
former White House COVID-19 response
coordinator Ashish Jha, was not immediately available for comment.
A withdrawal from the WHO
would mark a dramatic shift in US global health policy and further isolate
Washington from international efforts to battle pandemics.
The departure would also
deny the healthy body of its biggest donor with the US providing the WHO with
about 16 per cent of its funding in 2022-23.
Trump initiated the
year-long withdrawal process from the WHO in 2020 but six months later his
successor, President Joe Biden, reversed the decision.
Speaking to the Financial
Times, Ashish Jha suggested that the Trump team wanted to move much faster this
time around.
He said: 'There are
lots of people who are going to be part of the inner circle of the
administration who do not trust the WHO and want to symbolically show on day
one that they are out,' he said.
Since his election in
November, Trump has nominated several critics of the WHO to top public
health positions, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a vaccine skeptic.
He is up for the post of
secretary of Health and Human Services, which oversees all major U.S. health
agencies including the CDC and FDA.
The Trump transition team
did not immediately respond when approached by the news agency Reuters for
comment.
More
Trump looks to withdraw from WHO on first day of his administration
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Lilium ceases
operations before delivering a single electric air taxi
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal December 24, 2024
German eVTOL
startup Lilium has ceased operations as of this week, sunsetting a
decade-long effort funded with over US$1 billion to build electric air taxis,
with nary a single aircraft delivered.
The
news comes from co-founder
Dr. Patrick Nathen, who made the announcement via a LinkedIn
post spotted
by TechCrunch. It follows a report dated December 20 from German outlet
Gründerszene, which stated that nearly
1,000 Lilium employees had been laid off; only
a small number would remain to manage the liquidation process.
We've
known for a bit that the startup was in trouble. Back in October, the company had
run out of money, failed to raise a $54-million injection
from the German government to continue operations, and filed for insolvency for
its two primary subsidiaries.
At
that time, Lilium hoped to get things back on track by seeking out new
investors and a supervisory custodian. It had also just inked a partnership
with GE Aerospace to build flight data management solutions for eVTOL
operators. Plus, the US Federal Aviation Administration had issued regulations
paving the way for aviation firms to get their aircraft into the skies earlier
that week in October.
Lilium
was slated to conduct the first manned flight of its second Jet aircraft early
in 2025, and deliver its first two machines in 2026. Orders of several Jets
from US-based operator UrbanLink and Saudi Arabia's flag carrier, which it
accepted earlier this year, will go unfulfilled.
Lilium ceases
operations before delivering a single electric air taxi
Canoo's future
looks uncertain amid lawsuits and furloughed workers
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal December 23, 2024
American
EV startup Canoo has been in hot water for a while now, and it looks like the
temperature's rising further still. Last Friday, Canoo put its team on a “mandatory unpaid break” through
at least the end of the year.
That's
from TechCrunch's Sean O'Kane, who noted that employees were told
they were being locked out of Canoo’s systems. Plus, the company furloughed
82 employees last week, and also idled its Oklahoma
factory – where it's believed to have produced only a small number of vehicles
for fleet customers.
It's
hard to say what lies ahead for Canoo, which has had a turbulent 2024, to say
the least. According to automotive publication EV, an email sent to
staff on December 20 noted that the
company expected the unpaid break to last “a few weeks,” with
an update on Canoo's situation in the first week of January.
Since
its IPO in December 2020, its stock price has crashed
from US$453 a share to $0.08 today. The company is said
to have raised
some $595 million since it was founded in 2017, with
little to show for it in terms of revenue and shipments.
Canoo enjoyed the EV
spotlight for a number of years after it unveiled its first electric
van prototype in 2019 with an oddly appealing design philosophy "centered
around minimalism and functionality," according to lead designer Richard
Kim (who left the company in 2023). The not-a-minivan received
a favorable review from USA
Today last year, with praise for the novel interior. It was slated
to go on sale for about $40,000, with power output configurable between 200-350
hp, and an estimated range of 250 miles (402 km).
For its first
seven-seater van, the company envisioned futuristic and
spacious interiors with "the exterior footprint of a compact car,"
and a
subscription-only model instead of outright ownership.
Canoo also developed a modular
'skateboard' platform that contained of the
vehicle's battery, powertrain, and suspension componentry. This enabled the
brand to fashion additional models by simply topping the platform with
different cabins, like delivery vans and pickup trucks.
The
company inked fleet vehicle deals with NASA and the State of Oklahoma, and
delivered small shipments of its vans to each. In total, it claimed to have
racked up orders amounting
to $2 billion – and that included 4,500 vans for
Walmart. But last month, Fortune's Jessica Mathews reported
that the
test vehicles Canoo loaned Walmart to try out didn't have airbags installed.
The glaring omission was subsequently rectified, but according to Fortune's
sources, Walmart is yet to purchase a single vehicle from Canoo.
It's
not like Canoo can't find takers – but it can't seem to get its EVs out the
door. It even landed
a deal with commercial vehicle provider Kingbee Vans to supply 9,300 vans this
year, but it's only delivered two. Canoo's own public reports indicate the
company has delivered a grand total of 19 vehicles so far.
More
Canoo's future
looks uncertain amid lawsuits and furloughed workers
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and almost year-end. Time to start
seriously thinking about 2025. What if China’s deflation spreads out into the
rest of the world? What if Germany and France collapse the EU economy? What if AI doesn’t deliver in 2025? What if
an increasingly bullying Trump 2.0 generates global chaos rather than prosperity?
Better not to go there, right? Have a great last weekend of 2024 everyone. Look
away from Uncle Scam’s 36.272 trillion debt on a GDP of only 29.392 trillion,
now! Nothing to see here, right!
Gold is
money. Everything else is credit.
J. P. Morgan.
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