Baltic
Dry Index. 1167 +07 Brent Crude 71.49
Spot Gold 2640 US 2 Year Yield 4.10 -0.05
The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians.
Henry Hazlitt.
The big news this week will be what happens next in Syria. Will Syria descend into chaos and anarchy or will order emerge? It could go either way. But for now, it’s a developing story well covered in mainstream media.
In the stock casinos, a mixed start. Will regime change in Syria and political trouble in South Korea and Europe drag on the year-end Trump rally?
What if regime change spreads further in the Middle East?
Kospi down over 2% amid political turmoil in South
Korea; Asia markets mixed
Updated Mon, Dec 9 2024 11:38 PM EST
South Korea’s Kospi stock index fell over
2% Monday after President Yoon Suk Yeol survived
an impeachment vote over the weekend as the fallout from his brief
declaration of martial law continues to roil the country.
The benchmark index fell 2.5%, while the
Kosdaq dropped 4.4% as investors continued to monitor the country’s political
situation.
While Yoon’s People Power Party boycotted
the Saturday impeachment vote brought by opposition parties, its leader has
said that Yoon would step down.
Meanwhile, prosecutors in the country have
named President Yoon Suk Yeol as a subject of a criminal investigation for
potential charges of treason and abuse of power, according to local
media reports.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, markets
were mixed Monday as traders assessed revised economic growth data from Japan
and China’s November inflation data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.1%,
while the Topix gained 0.2%.
Japan’s third-quarter GDP was revised to
0.3% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, up from 0.2% and above estimates from a
Reuters poll that predicted no change.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index was down
0.6%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was down 0.5%.
China’s consumer price growth missed
expectations in November, rising by 0.2% year on year, down from a 0.3%
increase in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on
Monday. Economists from Reuters forecast growth of 0.5%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down
0.6%.
In the U.S. on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to
fresh records after November jobs data came in slightly
better than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Federal Reserve from
cutting rates again later this month.
The broad market S&P 500 climbed 0.25%
to 6,090.27. Tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.81% to 19,859.77, bolstered by gains
in Tesla, Meta Platforms and Amazon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
123.19 points, or 0.28%, to close at 44,642.52.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq went on to
their third straight positive week as well, rising 0.96% and 3.34%,
respectively. The Dow slipped 0.6% during the period.
Asia
markets live: Kospi falls, Japan revises GDP higher, China CPI lower than
expected
European markets set for a flat to lower start to
the new trading week
Updated Mon, Dec 9 2024 12:39 AM EST
European markets are expected to start the
new trading week on a somber note, looking set to open in flat to lower
territory Monday.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 5 points lower at 8,299, Germany’s DAX down 7 points at
20,377, France’s CAC up
1 point at 7,430 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB down 45 points at 34,713, according to data from IG. There are no
major earnings or data releases in Europe Monday.
Traders will be assessing geopolitical
upheaval in the Middle East after the ousting of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad over the weekend. Western leaders have greeted the
overthrow of the Assad dynasty by rebel forces with caution, fearing a
power vacuum and more instability in the region.
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed overnight. South Korea’s Kospi stock index fell
over 2% after President Yoon Suk Yeol survived
an impeachment vote over the weekend.
U.S.
stock futures were little changed Sunday night after the S&P 500
and Nasdaq Composite posted their third straight winning week, ahead of key
inflation data due Wednesday.
The November consumer price index, due out
Wednesday, is expected to show a slight uptick in pricing pressures. Economists
polled by Dow Jones expect a 0.3% and 2.7% monthly and yearly increase,
respectively. That would be up from 0.2% and 2.6%, respectively, from the prior
month.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
Week Ahead
Monday: China’s price data
will be scrutinized for signs of deflation; European finance ministers — including
the UK’s Rachel Reeves — meet in Brussels.
Tuesday: Australia’s central bank is
expected to hold interest rates steady; China releases its November trade report;
Javier Milei marks one year as president of Argentina with
his approval rate rising.
Wednesday: China’s top
leaders reportedly begin
their annual closed-door economic meeting; the US and Argentina release CPI.
Thursday: The ECB is
expected to cut rates by a quarter point as politics on both sides of the
Atlantic threaten the euro zone’s outlook; India’s CPI is likely to report that
inflation eased in November.
Friday: The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey is expected to show
business confidence strengthening.
If TikTok Is Banned in the US, Which Apps Benefit? - Bloomberg
In other news.
ECB to cut rates again amid bleak eurozone outlook
Frankfurt (Germany) (AFP) – The European
Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates again this week amid a darkening
outlook, with political turbulence in the eurozone's two biggest economies
adding to the troubled picture.
Issued on: 09/12/2024 - 03:23
It would be the ECB's third straight
reduction as it increasingly focuses on spurring lending to boost consumer
spending and business investment in the 20 countries that use the euro.
The central bank hiked rates aggressively
from mid-2022 to tame surging energy and food costs but, with inflation easing
and the eurozone weakening, they have now turned their attention to cuts.
Recent worse-than-expected data had
fuelled speculation the ECB could deliver a hefty, half-percentage-point cut
for the first time in its easing cycle when it meets Thursday.
But with inflation pressures still a
concern -- the indicator rebounded above the central bank's two-percent target
in November -- most analysts now expect the ECB to continue at the same pace as
before, with a quarter-point cut.
"While there is a strong case for the
ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a (half point) cut, a
majority of the governing council seems to prefer" a quarter-point
reduction, Capital Economics said in a note.
It will be the Frankfurt-based
institution's fourth cut since June, and will take the key deposit rate to
three percent.
Growth worries
ECB officials have repeatedly raised
concerns about the weakening growth outlook in the single-currency area,
signalling a shift away from being laser-focused on bringing down inflation.
Eurozone inflation peaked at 10.6 percent
in late 2022 after surging in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amid
post-pandemic supply chain woes.
It fell back under the ECB's two-percent
target in September but rebounded in subsequent months, reaching 2.3 percent in
November.
More
ECB to cut rates again amid bleak eurozone outlook
Analysis-To Europe's economic malaise, add a
leadership void
Giselda Vagnoni, Christoph Steitz and
Joanna Plucinska
Mon 9 December 2024 at 6:07 am GMT
(Reuters) - France and Germany's political
crises are a setback for efforts to modernise Europe's struggling economy and
are already making it harder for companies to take the investment decisions
they need to compete globally.
Government collapses in Germany and France
- the big two economies that for decades have powered the European Union - come
just as the region must navigate the return of Donald Trump to the White House
and mounting trade tensions with China.
From French cognac-makers facing Chinese
duties to German component manufacturers awaiting clarity on Europe's
industrial strategy for electric vehicles, the timing could not be worse.
Across the 27-nation bloc, few disagree
that the region's economies must be overhauled if they are to generate the
wealth needed to sustain an ageing population of 450 million. But more than
ever, the question is whether its politicians can deliver.
"The French crisis, together with the
German one, must not slow down the implementation of the economic
reforms," Enrico Letta, author of a 147-page, EU-commissioned report this
year on the weaknesses of the region's economy, told Reuters.
The fall of President Emmanuel Macron's
government on Wednesday - just weeks after the implosion of the German
coalition - is a "potential meteorite" for financial stability in a
region struggling with high debt, he warned.
While many Europeans would not swap their
quality of life and welfare safety nets for those of their American peers, the
continent has fallen behind the United States in terms of economic growth per
capita since the 2008 financial crisis.
Everything from weak productivity to
fragmented capital markets and the wider banking sector has been blamed.
Sanctions on Russia imposed after it invaded Ukraine have deprived European
manufacturers of a cheap energy source.
With the rise of far-right and hard-left
parties making it harder to reach consensus in national parliaments and EU
institutions, the prospects for action on Europe's long-term failings are not
great.
Uncertainty caused by the collapsed German
coalition government is "poison for us", said Axel Petruzzelli, works
council chief at the Stuttgart plant of car parts supplier giant Bosch. His
company is awaiting urgent clarity on German industrial policy, particularly
Berlin's stance towards the EV sector, but that won't come until after
February's election.
More
Analysis-To Europe's economic malaise, add a leadership void
China consumer inflation rate drops to a
five-month low, missing expectations as economy slows
Published Sun, Dec 8 20248:41 PM EST
China’s consumer inflation fell to a
five-month low in November and missed expectations, climbing 0.2% from a year
ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Monday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a
slight pickup in retail inflation to 0.5% in November from a year ago, versus
0.3% in October.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile
food and fuel prices, rose 0.3% in November from 0.2% in October.
On a year on year basis, prices of pork
and fresh vegetables rose 13.7% and 10.0% respectively.
China’s producer price index or wholesale
inflation declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on
year in November, less than the estimated 2.8% decline as per the Reuters
poll.
Among the purchaser price index of industrial producers,
the prices of ferrous metal materials led declines by 7.1% . Fuel and
power dropped by 6.5% while chemical raw materials decreased by 5%.
While China’s PPI deflation has narrowed
slightly, it still seems quite entrenched, said Erica Tay, director of macro
research at Maybank.
“Accumulated inventories of manufacturing
inputs and finished goods are sizeable, and growing by the month. This mismatch
between supply and demand has been depressing prices,” she told CNBC via email.
The persistent near-zero retail inflation
shows that China is still grappling with sluggish domestic demand while
wholesale prices remain in deflationary territory. This is in spite of Beijing’s
slate of stimulus efforts since September which has included interest
rate cuts, support for the stock and property markets as well as efforts to
boost bank lending.
“We believe deflation will continue in
China, especially based on the previous experience during trade wars,” said
Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, drawing
reference to the ongoing trade war between China and the U.S.
“Inflation, especially PPI inflation,
typically falls to negative territory during such periods and this time we see
no exception,” she said. Liu said China’s producer price index inflation will
likely remain negative throughout 2025.
Goldman Sachs similarly expects near-zero
CPI figures to persist in China next year, the investment bank’s analysts wrote
in a note dated Dec. 6.
---- On Monday, Fitch Ratings revised
down its 2025 Chinese GDP growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.5%. The credit rating
agency also adjusted its 2026 growth projections to 4.0%, down from 4.3% in
September.
More
China CPI growth drops to a five-month low, missing expectations
Can Nissan survive? Automaker slashes US
production as bankruptcy looms
December 7, 2024
The car industry as a whole may be ailing
— but Nissan’s prognosis is particularly dire, the kind you measure in months,
not years.
Sluggish sales — mainly in North America —
have been disastrous for the Japanese automaker. In response, dealers are
selling cars at a loss and production has been slashed by 20%. More recently,
the company cut 9,000 jobs and sold a third of its stake in Mitsubishi.
The Japanese automaker also plans to cut
production at its plants in Canton, Mississippi, and Smyrna, Tennessee — which
together employ some 13,000 workers — by 100,000 cars.
But all of this may be too little, too
late.
Death’s door
On paper, at least, it doesn’t look good.
Nissan’s operating profit dropped 85% in the third quarter, with the company
recording a net loss of 9.3 billion Yen ($60.1 million at today’s exchange
rate). On November 7, the company posted a consolidated operating profit for
the six months ending in September down over 90% compared with the same period
last year.
“We have 12 to 14 months to survive,” a
senior official close to Nissan recently told the Financial Times. “This is
going to be tough. And in the end, we need Japan and the U.S. to be generating
cash,” he said.
Unfortunately, consumers in those
countries are simply not buying. And increased competition from China isn’t
helping.
Stateside slowdown
Nissan’s cost-cutting is part of a
large-scale restructuring effort to save $3 billion.
Adding to the uncertainty, major
shareholder Renault is looking to offload its holdings in the company. Nissan
is reportedly seeking a new long-term investor — and hasn’t ruled out longtime
rival Honda taking a majority stake. Nissan recently signed a partnership with
Honda and Mitsubishi for long-term EV development.
The Japanese automaker also plans to cut
production at its plants in Canton, Mississippi, and Smyrna, Tennessee — which
together employ some 13,000 workers — by 100,000 cars. Among the models made at
those factories are Nissan’s Pathfinder SUV and the Frontier pickup truck.
More
Can Nissan survive? Automaker slashes US production as bankruptcy looms
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Winter
recession fears for Germany
6
December 2024
Germany
was dealt a fresh blow yesterday as industrial production shrank in October,
fuelling fears of a winter recession in Europe's biggest economy.
Official
figures showed that industrial production unexpectedly fell 1 per cent compared
to the previous month.
Declines
in the energy and car-making industries drove the downturn. Analysts had
predicted a 1.2 per cent rise after a decline of 2 per cent in September.
Germany's
economy grew overall by just 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, narrowly
avoiding an official technical recession.
Carsten
Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Bank, said: 'This is a very weak start to
the fourth quarter, increasing the risk of a winter recession in Germany.'
Winter recession
fears for Germany
UK
'heading for recession' amid 'jobs car crash' sparked by national insurance
hike, recruitment giant warns
6
December 2024, 13:58 | Updated: 6 December 2024, 17:07
One
of the UK’s biggest recruiters has warned that the UK is heading towards
recession, blaming the chancellor’s National Insurance hike for a slump in the
jobs market.
The
chairman of recruitment giant Reed told LBC that its data showed a 13%
month-on-month decrease in job listings since October, and a 26% decline in
comparison with November 2023, figures which, historically, have resulted in
the UK entering a recession.
James
Reed argued that the UK jobs market is facing an “accelerating car crash”, and
that in seeking to address the £22 billion black hole they say had been left by
the previous administration, the government has created “a million black holes”
in companies’ balance sheets.
Asked
about how businesses were responding to the plans to increase employers’
national insurance contributions, Mr Reed said: “Pretty much everyone I’m
talking to is looking at ways to mitigate this. I’m concerned that this will
lead to rising unemployment and, perhaps worse, recession because business
confidence has taken a big hit.”
When
pressed further on whether a recession is on the cards, Mr Reed added “it’s a
red light flashing. When I have seen this sort of level of decline [in the jobs
market] in the past, that’s been the consequence - recession.
“We
saw the recession coming at the end of 2023 before the Bank of England and
others did because our job data indicated it. I’m worried that this might be
indicating another dip, yes.”
It
comes as a further blow to the government after the Confederation of British
Industry today downgraded its growth projections for the UK economy from 1.9%
to 1.6% in 2025.
More
UK 'heading for recession' amid 'jobs car crash' sparked by national insurance hike,... - LBC
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Off topic today, but
potentially very important.
'Breakthrough'
dementia drug looks to stop disease in its tracks
By Paul McClure December 04, 2024
Filamon
Limited, an Australian biotech company focused on developing next-gen
anti-inflammatory drugs, has announced its breakthrough dementia treatment.
ALPHA-003 is designed to preserve the integrity of vital brain cell structures
and protect them against destruction caused by brain inflammation.
In
healthy neurons, the tau protein stabilizes microtubules, crucial
tube-like structures that, together with neurofilaments, maintain the neurons’
shape and provide mechanical support. However, when it’s modified, tau can
form toxic aggregates – tangles
that degrade these key structures. This is seen in a group of diseases called
tauopathies, such as dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, and chronic traumatic
encephalopathy (CTE).
Existing
dementia treatments focus on reducing the consequences of this structural
damage but have enjoyed only moderate success. Now, an Australian biotech
company, Filamon Limited, has announced its breakthrough treatment, ALPHA-003, which is aimed
at halting the progression of dementia by preventing microtubular destruction.
“The
underlying problem with most forms of dementia is the destruction of a key
structural component of brain cells known as microtubules,” said Associate
Professor Kieran Scott, Professor of Oncology at Western Sydney University, and
co-founder of Filamon. “These long, hollow tubes are vital to healthy brain
function. In dementia, these microtubules degrade, resulting in the death of
brain cells.
“To
date, no one has found a way of preventing microtubular destruction,” Scott
said. “We believe ALPHA-003 has the potential to be that first drug by
stabilizing the two main brain cell components whose job is to protect
microtubules from damage – tau and neurofilaments.”
ALPHA-003
is designed to prevent damaging brain inflammation by binding to tau and
neurofilaments, providing the microtubular protection that Scott is referring
to. The result of deep-learning, computational drug design technology developed
in Australia, ALPHA-003 started life as a more general anti-inflammatory drug,
countering the effects of human group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (hGIIA),
a significant player in inflammatory conditions, before its developers realized
its potential for treating neuroinflammation, specifically.
“ALPHA-003
was under development as a new form of anti-inflammatory drug that worked by
blocking the activating effects of the key inflammatory ligand, hGIIA, on a
range of cell structural proteins,” Professor Graham Kelly, Filamon’s
co-founder, CEO, and Managing Director said in an interview with New
Atlas. “Activation of those proteins underlies most chronic inflammatory
changes. Recent published data has shown that tau is another structural protein
that responds to hGIIA, so we simply asked the question whether ALPHA-003 would
have the same protective effect on tau. Our studies showed that it does, to the
extent of blocking the ability of tau to form sheets of oligomers that comprise
the ‘tau neurofibrillary tangles.’”
More
'Breakthrough' dementia drug looks to stop disease in its tracks
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Florida
has installed the second most solar power capacity in the country in 2024
Fri, December 6, 2024 at 7:00 PM GMT
Nearly 30,000 Floridians have
installed solar power this year, bringing the number of installations to over
253,000 according to a new report.
The state as a whole has
installed 3.1 gigawatts (GW) of solar-generation capacity through the first
three quarters of this year, nearly matching the state’s record-setting amount
of 3.2 GW installed last year. That’s the second most in the nation, ranking
behind only Texas. (A gigawatt is equivalent to 1 billion watts.)
That information comes from
the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and data analysis consultancy
Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4
2024 report.
The price of solar power has
gone down by 43% over the past decade. That’s a major factor in why Florida has
ramped up production of solar in recent years, said Stephen Smith, executive
director of the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE).
“The technology price points
are actually in the money compared to other generation technology, so it’s
actually more cost effective to build a solar plus storage for a large utility
than it is to build any other generation unit, when you look at the lifetime
cost and the cost to get it up and get it operational quickly,” he said.
Nearly a decade ago, SACE and
other clean energy advocates in Florida were critical of the state’s
investor-owned utilities for their lack of investment in solar power. That’s
changed dramatically, Smith said, praising in particular NextEra’s Energy’s Florida
Power & Light, the state’s largest regulated utility, serving more than 12 million
people.
FPL’s solar energy expansion is part of its “Real
Zero” goal of eliminating carbon emissions from its power plant fleet — a plan
that Smith calls one of “the most ambitious solar goals in the country.”
---- “The cost of producing electricity from new solar is around $60/MWh
compared to $70MWh for new natural gas,” said Dawn Shirreffs, Florida director
for the Environmental Defense Fund. “As a result, we see NextEra/FPL is now
very focused on solar and storage to diversify their portfolio and lower costs
in Florida, but other utilities continue to propose new natural gas plants.”
Florida receives 8% of its
existing electricity portfolio from solar, according to the SEIA. That figure is expected to increase over the
next decade, with the total proportion of renewable energy in Florida expected
to reach 28% by 2032, primarily from the addition of new solar generation,
according to a report published earlier this year by the Florida
Public Service Commission.
Tthe state relies on natural
gas for 75% of its energy needs, a larger proportion than in any other state).
Florida is predicted to take
over as the top-ranked residential solar state in 2028, according to the new
SEIA report, although not all environmental advocates are convinced that is
destined to occur.
“If we’re talking about the cumulative number of
households with solar, it’s possible but we’ll need a major uptick in
installation to pass California,” Shirreffs said. California receives 31% of its
energy portfolio from solar power.
Florida has installed the second most solar power capacity in the country
in 2024
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is
limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and
that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice.
Henry Hazlitt.
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