Baltic
Dry Index. 1180 -57 Brent Crude 72.25
Spot Gold 2651 US 2 Year Yield 4.13 -0.04
A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock.
Benjamin Graham.
In the stock casinos and cryptoland, business as usual. Nearly everywhere else a world turning upside down.
I suspect the stock casinos are soon in for a rude awakening, Trump mania or not.
Warren Buffett’s favourite stock valuation measure, the Wilshire 5,000 market cap to US GDP ratio, already has Berkshire Hathaway selling out of stock and raising a massive cash cushion for future deployment.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed amid global
political chaos; bitcoin crosses $100,000
Updated Thu, Dec 5 2024 12:12 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday
after Wall Street stock benchmarks notched record highs, shrugging off global
political turmoil.
Investors are continuing to monitor the
political situation in South Korea and France. Less than a day after he
declared martial law, lawmakers in South Korea filed a motion to impeach
President Yoon Suk Yeol.
The leader of Yoon’s ruling People Power
Party, Han Dong-hoon, said on Thursday that the party will try to oppose the
motion, Yonhap News Agency reported. In emails sent to NBC
News, Yoon’s office has maintained that his call for martial law was
constitutional.
The opposition party’s deputy spokesperson
Cho Seung-rae reportedly said it planned to hold the vote on
Saturday 7 p.m. local time, according to local media.
South Korea released its
third-quarter revised gross domestic product, which showed the economy
expanded 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and 1.5% on an annual basis, unchanged from
advanced estimates.
South Korea’s market opened higher but
quickly lost momentum. The Kospi fell
by 0.44% while the Kosdaq was down 0.14%.
Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1%
to finish at 8,471.10.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 0.31%,
while the Topix traded near the flatline.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures
dropped just over 1%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index shed 0.13%.
“Investors may now attach a higher
political risk premium to South Korea in the long term,” Alex Smith, head of
equities investment specialist at abrdn, said in a note on Thursday, adding
that the Bank of Korea and finance ministry have “helped calm the markets” by
promising liquidity support.
While noting that the immediate impact on
financial markets may be short-lived, the political uncertainty will add to
investors’ concerns over the economy’s exposure to potential “punitive trade
actions” from the incoming U.S. administration, Smith said.
Meanwhile, French lawmakers on
Wednesday passed a no-confidence vote against the government of
Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Amid the political turmoil in Asia and
Europe, bitcoin surged
and crossed the $100,000 mark, hitting a record of $103,844, according to Coin
Metrics.
In the U.S. on Wednesday, all three major
indexes hit
all-time highs during the session and closed at records, with tech
shares leading the gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
308.51 points, or 0.69%, to 45,014.04, crossing the 45,000 threshold for the
first time.
The S&P 500 broad market
index gained 0.61% to close at 6086.49, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.3% to close at 19,735.12.
The rally came as investors digested Fed
Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Wednesday that the recent strength
of the U.S. economy means U.S. central bank can afford to be “a little
more cautious.”
Investors are awaiting the U.S. November
unemployment report, due Friday, which would provide some insights into the
Fed’s future policy moves. The next rate decision comes in two weeks, and
markets are pricing in a roughly 78% chance of a quarter percentage point rate
cut by the Federal Open Market Committee, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Asian markets live updates: South Korea political turmoil, Jerome Powell comments
In other news.
South Korean President Yoon faces impeachment: How
did we get here?
Published Wed, Dec 4 2024 9:33 PM EST
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is
facing impeachment by parliament after a series of shocking moves that saw him
briefly declare martial law in the country for the first time in nearly 50
years.
South Korea’s main opposition party, the
Democratic Party, along with others, submitted the articles of impeachment on Wednesday,
responding to what the DPK leader called an “unconstitutional and illegal
declaration of martial law.”
A motion for impeachment was reported to
the National Assembly’s plenary session Thursday in a parliamentary procedure
that sets the stage for a full-house vote this week, according to local news.
The DPK reportedly plans to hold a plenary session to vote on
the impeachment bill of the National Assembly on Saturday.
The party has a majority of control of the
parliament, and along with members of other smaller opposition parties,
it makes up 192 out of 300 seats. Thus, the coalition may only
need eight outside votes to reach the two-thirds majority it would need to
impeach the controversial leader.
If Yoon’s impeachment is passed by
parliament it moves to South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which must then rule
on whether to confirm or reject the impeachment.
The leader of Yoon’s ruling People Power
Party said Thursday that he plans to unite his party to block the motion to
impeach.
More
South Korean President Yoon faces impeachment: How did we get here?
French government toppled in no-confidence vote
brought by opposition
Published Wed, Dec 4 2024 2:30 PM EST Updated
Wed, Dec 4 2024 3:09 PM EST
The French government has been toppled in
a vote of no confidence Wednesday, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest
economy into a period of deep political uncertainty.
A total of 331 lawmakers from both the
leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the far-right National Rally (RN)
supported a no-confidence motion in the country’s lower house, far exceeding
the 288 votes needed to pass the motion.
Motions had been tabled by both the left
and rightwing blocs on Monday after Prime Minister Michel Barnier used special
constitutional powers to force
a social security budget bill through Parliament without a vote.
National Rally had said it would vote for
both its own “motion de censure” against the government, as well as lending its
support to the NFP’s motion.
Either motion needed the support of at least 288 deputies, out of
574 deputies in the National Assembly, to see the no-confidence vote succeed. Combined, the
far-right bloc and leftwing alliance have roughly 333 lawmakers in Parliament,
although some lawmakers had been expected to abstain from the vote.
During a debate ahead of the vote, Barnier
told lawmakers he was “not afraid” of being voted out but called on parties to
work together and to “go above the general interest” to overcome divisions. He
said it had “been an honor” to serve as prime minister, before receiving a
standing ovation from French politicians.
Losing the confidence vote means Barnier
will be forced to tender his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron
just three months after he was installed as premier on Sept. 5; Barnier’s
administration will be the shortest-lived in France’s Fifth
Republic, which began in 1958.
The prime minister’s downfall comes after
several weeks of negotiations with opposition parties to try to find agreement
over just one part of the wider 2025 budget, which included 60 billion euros
($63 billion) worth of spending cuts and tax hikes seen as necessary to tame
France’s budget deficit which is expected
to stand at 6.1% in 2024.
In the end, however, Barnier’s minority
government failed to win over opponents on either side of the political
spectrum. It faced the prospect of more haggling over the broader budget that
had to be passed by Dec. 21, and was vulnerable to the whims of the National
Rally, which
had tacitly agreed to support the government until spending disagreements came
to a head earlier this week.
The appointment of Barnier — a
right-leaning conservative with Les Républicains party — was controversial from
the off in September as it came after the RN and NFP won respective rounds of a
parliamentary election held in June and July.
---- Barnier is expected to resign
immediately although Macron is likely to ask him to continue as a caretaker
prime minister while he searches for a replacement. New parliamentary elections
cannot take place until next June-July, 12 months on from the last vote.
As for the budget, the fall of Barnier and
the government means that “all their unfinished legislative business falls with
them,” according to Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia
Group.
An emergency budget is likely be passed
within the month, effectively rolling over 2024 tax legislation until a 2025
budget is agreed, Rahman said in emailed comments Monday. But time is of the
essence to appoint a new prime minister, as a 2025 budget cannot be passed by a
caretaker government. That puts pressure on Macron to select a new prime
minister quickly.
More
French government toppled in no-confidence vote brought by opposition
VW CEO clashes with workers as conflict over closures, pay deepens
4 December 2024
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen's CEO and
labour boss clashed during a staff meeting on Wednesday, with management
pushing for major cuts while workers warned of more strikes as long as plant
closures remain part of wage negotiations at the embattled German automaker.
The gathering of around 20,000 workers at
Volkswagen's main plant in Wolfsburg was also attended by German Labour
Minister Hubertus Heil and comes less than a week before both sides will meet
for a fourth round of talks on Dec. 9.
Volkswagen insists that plant closures and
pay cuts are needed in Germany to respond to Chinese competition, something
workers have described as red lines while threatening further strikes after a
first round of walk-outs earlier this week.
"The current situation is serious.
New competitors are entering the market with unprecedented force. The price
pressure is immense," Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume said.
He said the group had to work its way back
in China, its single biggest market and a stable earnings contributor until
recently, adding labour costs in Germany were too high to compete.
"We therefore urgently need to take
measures to secure the future of Volkswagen. Our plans for this are on the
table."
Daniela Cavallo, who leads Volkswagen's
labour council and has repeatedly criticised Blume for not getting involved
enough in the conflict, said that all sides, including management and
shareholders, had to make sacrifices.
Cavallo said unions remained committed to
trying to get a deal done before Christmas.
"That will mean compromises.
Concessions too. Things that you don't like and that sometimes hurt you one way
or another. But that has to apply to all sides," she said. "Otherwise
it's not a compromise."
VW CEO clashes with workers as conflict over closures, pay deepens
China’s new trade war blow could be fatal for US’s ability to arm itself
3 December 2024
In the not so distant future, both China
and the United States could
be at war,
triggering the most significant global crisis since World War Two.
Tensions between the two global
superpowers have been steadily escalating, as Beijing prepares its
military to
capture Taiwan.
In response, Washington’s generals have
been steeling themselves for a fight, devising new war-fighting strategies and
building new military alliances.
While we’ve not yet reached the stage of a
“hot war” just yet, the
tech war is
well and truly underway.
On Tuesday, China retaliated against US
chip export curbs by banning shipments of materials critical to the production
of weapons in the other direction.
The commerce ministry in Beijing announced
the export of “dual-use” items related to gallium, germanium, antimony and
superhard materials to the US had been suspended.
Military hardware
Most commonly the materials are used
to produce everyday items like solar panels, batteries and
semiconductors.
But they also play a role in the
production of key military hardware, including missiles, communications systems
and armour-piercing bullets.
On Monday, Washington announced
restrictions on the export of critical semiconductor manufacturing tools and a
ban on shipments of advanced high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are used
in artificial intelligence systems, to China.
Antimony is the material that is likely to
be looked at most closely.
The lesser-known heavy metal is used for
all manner of military production, from basic ammunition, night-vision goggles
to infrared-guided missiles and nuclear weapons.
The technologies, especially missiles, are
expected to be key in any US-China
war over Taiwan.
Last year, China accounted for 48 per cent
of the globally mined antimony, creating the risk of shortages elsewhere around
the world if exports are shut down.
“Everyone will dig in their backyard to
find antimony. Many countries will try to find antimony deposits,” an anonymous
metals trader in Europe told the Reuters news agency, highlighting the
material’s importance.
But crucially for China, the export ban
gives its leaders the chance to evaluate just how reliant the US is on its
supply of the material.
According to figures for 2023, 63 per cent
of the 22,000 tons of antimony imported by the US came from China.
If there are to be any more exports
heading in the direction of Washington, Beijing will sign off on permissions.
This will hand the Chinese Communist Party
indirect information on what industries in the US are most reliant on the
materials leaving the country.
It could also be seen as a move to hamper
US weapons production at a time when
its stockpiles are lower than usual because of wars in Ukraine and the
Middle East.
If those shortages are not addressed, it
could prove fatal for Washington in an armed
conflict versus Beijing.
It is unlikely that the US will be able to
replace China as its principal supplier of antimony, considering that Russia is
the world’s second-largest producer of the material.
More
China’s new trade war blow could be fatal for US’s ability to arm itself
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Food
prices are at their highest levels in over a year. And these items will get
even more expensive
Published
Wed, Dec 4 2024 6:18 PM EST Updated Wed, Dec 4 2024 6:23 PM EST
Global
food prices recently rose to an 18-month high, with some food baskets expected
to continue climbing, according to market watchers.
In
October, world food commodity prices were at their highest since April
2023, according to the most recent data compiled by the United Nations’
Food and Agriculture Organization.
The
FAO Food Price Index, which monitors the prices of five food baskets: grains,
meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar, rose by 2% in October, driven primarily
by a surge in vegetable oil prices.
From
January to October, the vegetable oils category had the largest price spike,
jumping 24% on the back of higher prices for palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed
oils. That was followed by FAO’s dairy category, which rose 17% from the start
of the year, led by cheese and butter prices. The gauge’s meat category
increased 10% since the start of the year.
Conversely,
the cereals category, which largely
comprises wheat and rice, dipped 4.5%, while sugar declined almost 5% year
on year. Supply-side factors, ranging from weather to transportation
challenges, have been the main drivers, analysts concurred.
The
index measures raw commodity prices rather than retail costs, but the increase
suggests that higher food prices may continue to affect consumers.
Here
are some key food items that could see more climbs globally in the year ahead,
according to industry experts who spoke to CNBC.
More
Food
prices are at a one year high: here's what may get more expensive
UK
set for faster growth in 2025 but high inflation too, OECD forecasts
4
December 2024
(Reuters)
- The OECD on Wednesday bumped up its growth forecast for Britain's economy
next year, citing a surge in government spending that is also likely to push
inflation to the top of the G7 charts.
While
the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development trimmed
its expectation for this year to 0.9% from 1.1%, it raised its 2025 forecast
for British economic growth to 1.7% from 1.2% previously.
Excluding
wild swings in output that took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, such an
outcome would represent the fastest growth since 2017, with only Canada and the
U.S. forecast to grow faster next year by the OECD.
Finance
minister Rachel Reeves welcomed the upgrade, saying it made the UK the fastest
growing European economy in the G7 over the next three years, based on the
OECD's forecasts.
"That
is only the start. Growth only matters if it’s matched by more money in
people’s pockets," she said.
But
the OECD warned that the pickup was likely to be fleeting, with growth set to
slow to 1.3% in 2026.
"Government
consumption and investment will boost growth in 2025, owing to front-loaded
fiscal loosening, before the increase in taxes starts weighing on private
consumption and additional government borrowing needs crowd out business
investment," the OECD said in its latest global outlook.
Reeves
announced big increases to government spending and investment in her Oct. 30
budget, paid for by higher state borrowing and hiking taxes on employers -
something that has dented business confidence.
The
OECD said British inflation was likely to average 2.7% in 2025 - higher than in
any other G7 country.
More
UK set for faster growth in 2025 but high inflation too, OECD forecasts
Euro
zone business activity declines sharply in November, PMI shows
4
December 2024
LONDON
(Reuters) - Business activity across the euro zone fell sharply last month as
the bloc's dominant services sector joined the manufacturing sector in
contracting, according to a survey which showed a broadbased decline.
HCOB's
final composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the currency union, compiled by
S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, sank to
48.3 in November from October's 50.0.
That
was slightly ahead of a 48.1 preliminary estimate but still firmly below the 50
mark separating growth from contraction.
"The
services sector, which had been holding up the overall economy, is now
shrinking for the first time since January. This is bad news for overall growth
prospects, especially since this weakness is seen across the top-three euro
economies," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial
Bank.
A
PMI covering the services industry fell last month to 49.5 from 51.6, its first
sub-50 reading since January.
Suggesting
no imminent turnaround, overall demand fell steeply, with the composite new
business index dropping to 46.8 from 47.9, its lowest reading this year.
Despite
that fall, services firms stepped up hiring, with the employment index rising
to 51.0 from 50.3.
Euro zone business activity declines sharply in November, PMI shows
Fed's
Kugler says inflation on path to 2% target, job market is solid
3
December 2024
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. inflation is likely on a steady path back to the U.S. central
bank's 2% target, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday, with
the job market still "solid" even as it undergoes a "modest
cooling."
"I
view the economy as being in a good position after making significant progress
in recent years toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable
prices," Kugler said in prepared remarks to the Detroit Economic Club.
"The labor market remains solid, and inflation appears to be on a
sustainable path to our 2% goal."
She
did not in her prepared remarks indicate if she favors another
quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 policy
meeting, as anticipated by investors.
On
Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning towards another
rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday will give what are
expected to his last public remarks before the meeting.
"Policy
is not on a preset course. I will make decisions meeting by meeting,"
Kugler said, repeating what has become boilerplate language for Fed officials
at a moment when they are trying to avoid giving too much guidance about how
policy is likely to evolve.
That
has become particularly true since President-elect Donald Trump's victory in
last month's U.S. election. Trump's promises of import tariffs, tax cuts and an
immigration crackdown could change the economic outlook in the coming months.
"The
incoming administration and Congress have not enacted any policies yet, so it
is too early to make judgments," Kugler said.
More
Fed's Kugler says inflation on path to 2% target, job market is solid
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
House
committee reveals where it believes COVID originated from after years-long
investigation
Published: 23:14, 2
December 2024 | Updated: 14:33, 3 December 2024
After
a two-year investigation, a government report concluded dangerous virus
research in China 'is the most
likely origin of the Covid-19 pandemic.'
The
525-page report from the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic
released its final findings Monday and presented several of the 'strongest
arguments' to support the lab leak theory.
They
wrote there are biological characteristics of the virus that are not found in
nature; there is evidence to support a single introduction of the virus to
humans, not multiple zoonotic spillover events; and Wuhan - where the
virus was first detected - is home to China's largest SARS research lab - the
Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).
The
report also cited US intelligence reports that several researchers at the WIV
were sick with a Covid-like virus in the fall of 2019 notes a lack of direct
evidence linking the virus to animals at the nearby Wuhan wet market or
its supply
chain,
a theory that has prevailed among a wide swathe of scientists.
WIV
has long been at the center of the
contentious lab leak debate because researchers there routinely
tinker with and genetically modify viruses to become more virulent or
transmissible.
And
the subcommittee's report is not the first to suggest the Covid-19 pandemic
began in a Wuhan lab.
An
analysis of data from a Harvard-based molecular scientist outlined
five reasons earlier
this year that Covid was most likely manufactured by Chinese scientists.
A
third report concluded the virus leaked from a Chinese lab with a
70 percent certainty and documents reviewed by
DailyMail.com laid out plans to 'engineer spike proteins' to infect human
cells that would then be 'inserted into SARS-Covid backbones' at the WIV in
December 2018.
The
expansive report marks the latest
development of years of investigation into the mysterious origins of the
pandemic-causing coronavirus.
A
growing number of lawmakers, public health experts, and federal agencies point
to the WIV as the origin because scientists there research pathogens critics
say cross the line into dangerous.
The
expansive report marks the latest
development of years of investigation into the mysterious origins of the
pandemic-causing coronavirus.
A
growing number of lawmakers, public health experts, and federal agencies point
to the WIV as the origin because scientists there research pathogens critics
say cross the line into dangerous.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists and
engineers produce world's first carbon-14 diamond battery with potential
lifespan of thousands of years
4
December 2024
Scientists
and engineers from the University of Bristol and the UK Atomic Energy Authority
(UKAEA) and have successfully created the world’s first carbon-14 diamond
battery.
This
new type of battery has the potential to power devices for thousands of years,
making it an incredibly long-lasting energy source.
The
battery leverages the radioactive isotope, carbon-14, known for its use in
radiocarbon dating, to produce a diamond battery.
Several
game-changing applications are possible. Bio-compatible diamond batteries can
be used in medical devices like ocular implants, hearing aids, and pacemakers,
minimising the need for replacements and distress to patients.
Diamond
batteries could also be used in extreme environments – both in space and on
earth – where it is not practical to replace conventional batteries. The
batteries could power active radio frequency (RF) tags where there is a need to
identify and track devices either on earth or in space, such as spacecraft or
payloads, for decades at a time, thus reducing costs and extending operational
lifespan.
Professor
Tom Scott, Professor in Materials at the University of Bristol, said: “Our
micropower technology can support a whole range of important applications from
space technologies and security devices through to medical implants. We're
excited to be able to explore all of these possibilities, working with
partners in industry and research, over the next few years.”
The
carbon-14 diamond battery works by using the radioactive decay of carbon-14,
which has a half-life of 5,700 years, to generate low levels of power. It
functions similarly to solar panels, which convert light into electricity, but
instead of using light particles (photons), they capture fast-moving electrons
from within the diamond structure.
“Diamond
batteries offer a safe, sustainable way to provide continuous microwatt levels
of power. They are an emerging technology that use a manufactured diamond to
safely encase small amounts of carbon-14,” said Sarah Clark, Director of
Tritium Fuel Cycle at UKAEA.
A team
of scientists and engineers from both organisations worked together to build a
plasma deposition rig, a specialised apparatus used for growing the diamond at
UKAEA’s Culham Campus.
This
development is the result, in part, of UKAEA’s work on fusion energy.
The
expertise gained in fusion research is helping to accelerate innovation in
related technologies.
December: Diamond
battery media release | News and features | University of Bristol
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Successful
investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.
Benjamin Graham.
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