Monday, 16 December 2024

Fed Week, Central Bank Week. An Iffy 2025.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1051 -04          Brent Crude  74.14

Spot Gold 2653                US 2 Year Yield 4.25 +0.07

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

In the stock casinos, more pause as the punters wait on the interest rate decisions of a gaggle of central banks. The US Fed is expected to cut by another 0.25%. The BoJ and probably BoE unchanged.

More worries over what a Trump 2025 might look like too, if he really goes ahead with severe import tariffs on friend and foe alike.  What happens to the US economy too, if Team Musk at DOGE really manage to fire thousands of excess federal workers and reduce US federal spending programs by hundreds of billions, if not a trillion dollars.

Will Team Trump have to bail out the now loss making US auto manufacturers?

Asia markets reverse earlier gains as traders assess key China data and look ahead to central bank decisions due this week

Updated Mon, Dec 16 2024 10:23 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down on Monday, reversing earlier gains with investors looking to several major central back decisions due this week including the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China.

The Federal Reserve’s decision on Dec. 18 stateside will also be top of mind for investors, with the CME Fedwatch tool forecasting a 96% chance of a 25-basis-points cut.

The BOJ is likely to hold rates when it releases its decision on Thursday, while the PBOC will announce its loan prime rates on Friday. The one-year LPR influences corporate loans and most household loans in China, while the five-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.

On Monday, traders are assessing an economic data dump out from China, including November numbers for industrial production, retail sales and home prices in the country.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%, leading losses in Asia, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.34%.

South Korea’s Kospi was trading close to the flatline, and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.87% higher.

This comes after the country’s parliament impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol on Saturday. On Monday, the country’s finance ministry reportedly said it will continue monitoring financial and foreign exchange markets in the wake of the impeachment.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 0.16%, but the broad-based Topix was marginally down.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.31%.

On Friday in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a seventh session on Friday, losing 0.2% and posting its longest run of losses since 2020.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.12% and the broad-based S&P 500 ended the session little changed, closing at 6,051.09.

Asia markets live: BOJ decision, China LPR

European markets head for mixed open as traders focus on Fed meeting this week

Updated Mon, Dec 16 2024 12:38 AM EST

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Monday, as traders gear up for the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 4 points lower at 8,292, Germany’s DAX up 36 points at 20,443, France’s CAC down 1 point at 7,401 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 16 points at 34,876, according to data from IG.

The Fed’s decision on Dec. 18 stateside is front and center for global markets this week, with the CME Fedwatch tool forecasting a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the central bank. Traders will be paying close attention to the updated policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues about the trajectory for interest rates.

In Europe Monday, investors will be keeping an eye on Berlin where a vote of confidence will take place in parliament Monday. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to call on the German parliament today to declare it has no confidence in him in order for snap polls to take place in February. The move comes after his governing coalition collapsed last month.

Data releases include flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data from France and Germany.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for potential Fed rate cut this week: Live updates

Updated Mon, Dec 16 2024 11:47 PM EST

Stock futures were calm on Monday morning, with Dow riding a seven-day losing streak into a week highlighted by a key central bank meeting.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 49 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were also up less than 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures were just marginally above the flatline

The stock market is coming off a sluggish week. The Dow lost 1.8% last week and has lost ground in each of the last seven sessions. The S&P 500 dipped 0.64%, and has retreated in four of the past five sessions. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, grinding out a gain of 0.34% for the week.

After a broad rally following President-elect Donald Trump’s November win, the stock market appears to have reverted to a narrow tech-led move in recent days.

“The breadth that we’re seeing is really starting to dissipate a bit. It’s becoming a much more concentrated rally within a few names. And I don’t know how long that can sustain, but there’s a chance that carries forward through at least the end of the year,” Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab’s head trading and derivatives strategist, said on Friday’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”

The main draw of this week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate again.

On Monday, investors will get some updated economic data, with preliminary purchasing managers index readings due out before the bell.

And on the individual stock level, shares of MicroStrategy could be on the move after the bitcoin proxy was announced as a new addition to the Nasdaq 100 index.

Stock market news today: Live updates

 

Week Ahead

Monday: Germany’s Bundestag will hold a confidence vote that will likely pave the way for a snap election in February; Nigeria reports CPI and Argentina reports GDP.

Tuesday: Canada’s CPI is forecast to show inflation slowing slightly to 1.9%; the US publishes retail sales data.

Wednesday: The Fed is expected to cut rates a quarter of a point, though Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong says it ought to be holding steady. 

Thursday: Bank of Japan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged — delaying its next hike to January; rate decisions are also scheduled in the UK, Sweden, Mexico, Norway, the Philippines and Taiwan; Vladimir Putin holds his annual news conference; FedEx, Nike and Accenture report earnings.  

Friday: The US reports PCE inflation as well as personal income; deadline for Google to respond to proposed remedies in one of its US antitrust cases.

Source: Bloomberg.

In other news.

World’s Largest Wind Turbine Damaged in Extreme Weather

15 December 2024

Wind turbines are engineered to harness nature’s power, but even the most advanced designs can face unexpected challenges.

The world’s largest wind turbine, the MySE18.X-20MW, recently experienced significant damage during testing, raising questions about its durability and design.

The turbine, developed by Mingyang and boasting a record-breaking capacity of 20 MW, was installed on August 28.

It was designed to withstand extreme weather conditions, including typhoon winds reaching speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 m/s. However, during recent tests, unforeseen conditions pushed the turbine to its limits.

Shattered Rotor Blades

Images shared online show the turbine’s rotor blades shattered. Mingyang released a statement attributing the damage to “extreme, irregular conditions” that caused excessive strain on the blades.

The company did not provide further details, leaving experts to speculate. Some suggest design flaws, while others point to potential failures in safety systems, such as those regulating rotor speed.

Despite the damage, Mingyang views the incident as a critical learning experience. No injuries occurred, and the losses were limited to the turbine itself.

Just weeks before the incident, Mingyang’s CEO had showcased the turbine operating at full capacity in a LinkedIn video, hailing it as a major milestone in renewable energy.

The MySE18.X-20MW turbine was meant to represent the future of wind energy. Its innovative technology aimed to provide reliable power generation in harsh climates.

The damage, however, has underscored the challenges of scaling up such ambitious designs.

Mingyang’s engineers are now analyzing data to determine what went wrong.

Was it a structural issue, or were the extreme conditions truly beyond anything expected?

These questions will need answers before the turbine can move toward commercial use.

World’s Largest Wind Turbine Damaged in Extreme Weather

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Norway aims to cut energy links with Europe due to soaring prices

13 December 2024

The two ruling parties in Norway are pledging to campaign to cut the two power interconnectors that link the country with Denmark, when they come up for renewal in 2026, reports the FT. The smaller coalition party, the Center Party is eyeing revisiting similar energy links with the UK and Europe.

One of the reasons is that electricity prices are extremely high in the country these days, something that the energy minister Terje Aasland described as outrageous, cited Norwegian newspaper E24.

With current high Norwegian prices, critics argue Norway should only send electricity from its abundant hydropower abroad after it has ensured low prices at home, as was the case for decades previously.

What happened to Norwegian electricity prices?

A big part of Norwegian electricity generation comes from hydropower, but some 10% of the electricity supply is delivered by wind power mainly coming from the continent. Recently, there was a lack of wind in Germany and the North Sea, coupled with low temperatures in Norway.

So when EU power prices jump, as they have done recently, this price shock spills over to Norway. 

The electricity price in the country's southernmost area rose to over 13 kroner (€1.12) per kilowatt hour in the most expensive hour, including network rental and fees. For comparison, the EU average for the first half of 2024 was €0.1867 per KWh.

Eastern Norway also receives high prices, while the Western part of the country largely escapes the worst prices. In the north, electricity is still cheap due to the fact that it benefits the most from hydropower. 

The cost is supposed to go lower in the coming days, according to Norwegian media outlets, citing meteorology forecasts that suggest that wind production is supposed to pick up this weekend in Europe and prices are starting to decrease on Friday, according to Norwegian newspaper Nettavisen. 

However, the currently elevated cost was enough to give a new spark to the debate about how much Norway wants to share its power capacity. 

More

Norway aims to cut energy links with Europe due to soaring prices

Teamsters Accuse Costco of Rejecting 98 Percent of Contract Demands

The union threatened that 18,000 employees will be on strike if the issue does not get resolved in time.

12/13/2024 Updated:12/13/2024

Negotiations for a new worker contract between retail store chain Costco and labor union International Brotherhood of Teamsters could not reach a deal, with the union claiming that the company is not accepting their demands.

Costco’s worker contracts are set to expire on Jan. 31, 2025. On Nov. 11, Costco rejected several proposals made by Teamsters, including policies regarding paid family leave, sick time, safeguards against employee surveillance, and paid time off for employees during the death of their loved ones, according to a Dec. 12 statement from the union.

“By dismissing approximately 98 percent of the proposed provisions, the wholesale giant has signaled a troubling unwillingness to bargain in good faith and is taking an aggressive anti-union stance,” the union said.

If the company fails to present an “acceptable collective bargaining agreement” before the expiry of current worker contracts, more than 18,000 Costco employees will have no option but to strike, the group said.

Teamsters pointed out that Costco is the third biggest retailer globally, with net profits of $6.3 billion last year. The union accused the company of ditching its earlier “pro-worker” reputation to instead prioritize “corporate greed.”

The Epoch Times contacted Costco for comments regarding the Teamsters’ claims but received no reply by publication time.

The union represents 1.3 million workers in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada.

Costco has been at odds with the Teamsters on several occasions. On Sept. 4, the company issued a letter to workers accusing a Teamsters press release of propagating false information regarding another contract negotiation involving drivers.

The company claimed that the union’s press release “inaccurately accused Costco of delays and threatened a possible future strike by the drivers.” Costco said it had engaged in a “cordial and respectful” discussion with the union at the time.

Regarding ongoing negotiations, Sean M. O’Brien, the Teamsters’ general president, blamed the company for continuing to “waste time with surface bargaining.” Costco’s actions were “pushing“ the union ”closer to a labor dispute every day,” he said.

More

Teamsters Accuse Costco of Rejecting 98 Percent of Contract Demands | The Epoch Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

If covid 19 vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna are “safe and effective,” as claimed by both companies, making billions from both vaccines, why do both need immunity from being sued for vaccine injuries?

Biden gives Pfizer, Moderna immunity from being sued for vax injuries

13 December 2024

The outgoing Biden Administration has quietly extended a pandemic-era measure that protects Covid vaccine makers from being sued for injuries or deaths.

Officials at the Health and Human Services (HHS) say it's necessary because there is still 'a credible risk' the pandemic spirals out of control in the next four years, even though Covid deaths and hospital admissions are at historic lows.

The Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act was initially enacted in 2020, in part to encourage vaccine manufacturers to speed up their research of Covid vaccines without fear of being held legally responsible for things like side effects. 

The extension, which had last been renewed in May 2023, also protects healthcare workers and hospitals who provide the shots from being sued. 

This move could anger the incoming Trump administration, which has nominated prominent vaccine skeptic Robert F Kennedy Jr to head the HHS. 

RFK Jr has long carried the anti-vaccine flag, once claiming that the inoculations caused autism, and now heads up a movement attempting to make vaccine manufacturers more accountable for vaccine injury claims. 

This may also anger the small, but growing, number of Americans who say they were injured by the vaccines and claim they are being ignored. 

Figures from national programs that exist to compensate the vaccine-injured show that there have been 13,000 claims that the Covid vaccine or other covid treatments has caused injury. 10,000 of those are awaiting review, meaning that since 2020, only about 3000 of those claims have been reviewed.

Claims about injury from covid vaccines aren't covered by the HHS's Vaccine Injury Compensation program (VICP), which exists to pay out people who claim they were injured by standard vaccines while protecting pharmaceutical companies from liability.

People with vaccine injury claims specific to Covid are covered instead by a program called the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP). 

More

Biden gives Pfizer, Moderna immunity from being sued for vax injuries

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Nanopatterned graphene enables infrared 'color' detection and imaging

December 13, 2024

University of Central Florida (UCF) researcher Debashis Chanda, a professor at UCF's NanoScience Technology Center, has developed a new technique to detect long wave infrared (LWIR) photons of different wavelengths or "colors."

The research was recently published in Nano Letters.

The new detection and imaging technique will have applications in analyzing materials by their spectral properties, or spectroscopic imaging, as well as thermal imaging applications.

Humans perceive primary and secondary colors but not infrared light. Scientists hypothesize that animals like snakes or nocturnal species can detect various wavelengths in the infrared almost like how humans perceive colors.

Infrared, specifically LWIR, detection at room temperature has been a long-standing challenge due to the weak photon energy, Chanda says.

LWIR detectors can be broadly classified into either cooled or uncooled detectors, the researcher says.

Cooled detectors excel in high detectivity and fast response times but their reliance on cryogenic cooling significantly escalates their cost and restricts their practical applications.

In contrast, uncooled detectors, like microbolometers, can function at room temperature and come at a relatively lower cost but exhibit lower sensitivity and slower response times, Chanda says.

Both kinds of LWIR detectors lack the dynamic spectral tunability, and so they can't distinguish photon wavelengths of different "colors."

Chanda and his team of postdoctoral scholars sought to expand beyond the limitations of existing LWIR detectors, so they worked to demonstrate a highly sensitive, efficient and dynamically tunable method based on a nanopatterned graphene.

Tianyi Guo is the lead author of the research. Guo completed his doctoral degree at UCF in 2023 under Chanda's mentorship. This newly discovered method is the culmination of the research that Guo, Chanda and others in Chanda's lab have performed, Chanda says.

More

Nanopatterned graphene enables infrared 'color' detection and imaging

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Somebody has to be on the other side.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?

No comments:

Post a Comment